Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - Tariff measures in the U.S. saw a high start but began to cool down after April 9, leading to market perceptions of TACO [2] - Actual tariff revenue growth from January to May was 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, due to China's strategies to reduce high-tariff imports and ineffective implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada [3][4] - The economic impact of tariffs was lower than expected, with stable export volumes from China and low inflation in the U.S. despite tariffs, attributed to lower effective tax rates and weak demand in the automotive market [5] Group 2: Mid-Year Earnings Preview - The overall economic growth remains constrained, with a pre-announcement rate of 43.7% for mid-year earnings, lower than the past three years, indicating a weak profit growth of 1.0% for the entire A-share market [8] - Emerging technology sectors are showing signs of improvement, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing, while traditional sectors are lagging [9][10] - Certain cyclical industries, such as rare metals and chemicals, are experiencing price increases, and some sectors are showing signs of recovery in earnings due to capacity reductions [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally in the first half of the year but has shown weakness since late June, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and currency fluctuations [13][14] - Current market heat in Hong Kong is at historical mid-levels, with technology and financial sectors showing lower heat compared to A-shares, while healthcare and consumer sectors are performing better [14] - Positive factors are accumulating for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a potential outperformance against A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by consumption policies and foreign capital inflows [15]

Market Review - The recent week saw a strong performance in the Chinese stock market, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.5% and the A-share ChiNext Index increasing by 3.17%. The US stock market also showed strength, with the Nasdaq Index up by 1.5%. Key sectors in the A-share market included AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and military industry, while the banking sector experienced a pullback from its highs, leading to a relative weakness in dividend stocks. The market's risk appetite has increased, with A-share financing balances rising for four consecutive weeks, returning to levels not seen since April of this year [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - A new round of market uptrend is anticipated, with three main investment lines suggested: 1) High-growth new technologies and growth directions such as AI computing power, military industry, marine economy, and solid-state batteries; 2) Resource sectors benefiting from price increases, including minor metals and industrial metals; 3) Stable dividend assets, which will remain an important direction for medium to long-term capital allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [2][3]. Trade Relations - Recent developments in Sino-US trade have shown a continued easing in the technology trade sector, with positive expectations for negotiations. The A-share AI computing power sector saw significant gains, partly due to Nvidia's founder announcing the lifting of sales restrictions on the H20 chip to China. Additionally, the performance forecast of leading optical module companies exceeded expectations, confirming the high prosperity of the industry chain. The postponement of the "reciprocal tariffs" deadline from July 9 to August 1 has not led to significant fluctuations in global risk appetite [3]. Economic Overview - The pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target has eased, with expectations that the upcoming Politburo meeting will focus on "structural adjustments" and strengthening policy reserves. In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in real terms, surpassing the annual target. However, the GDP deflator index has shown a widening decline, recording negative values for nine consecutive quarters. Exports and consumption have remained strong, with exports increasing by 5.9% year-on-year in dollar terms, while retail sales grew by 5.0% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy. However, real estate continues to be a major drag on growth [3]. Sector Performance - As of July 19, 2025, 1,547 A-share companies had disclosed their mid-year performance forecasts, with a forecast rate of 28.6% and a positive forecast rate (including increases, slight increases, continued profits, and turnaround) reaching 44%. High-prosperity sectors include brokerage firms, certain resource sectors, and technology growth areas. Among resource sectors, precious metals and rare earths are expected to see high growth rates, while in the growth sector, AI hardware, military industry, gaming, and wind power are leading in net profit forecasts. Conversely, the real estate chain, coal mining, and liquor industries have lower positive forecast rates [3]. Capital Flow - With the improvement in profit-making effects, the influx of incremental capital into the stock market has shown a positive feedback effect. Private equity funds have been actively increasing their positions, with the stock private equity position index rising significantly to 77.36% as of July 4, 2025, an increase of 2.07% from the previous week. Additionally, A-share financing balances have risen for four consecutive weeks, with net purchases of financing funds exceeding 90 billion yuan from June 23 to July 17, bringing the financing balance back to the highest level since April of this year. The financing funds have been directed towards technology growth sectors, with the leading industries in financing purchases being electronics, computers, and power equipment [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the brokerage sector is experiencing a significant increase in performance, with a projected year-on-year growth of 74% for the overall mid-year performance of listed brokerages [5] - The report emphasizes the sustained high growth in the insurance channel, particularly for China Pacific Insurance, which reported a 90.2% year-on-year increase in new single premium from the bank insurance channel [6] - The report notes that the market trading volume has been consistently increasing since June, driven by the stablecoin theme and better-than-expected brokerage mid-year forecasts, leading to heightened interest in the brokerage sector [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average stock fund transaction volume reached 1.87 trillion, up 5.7% month-on-month, indicating increased market activity [5] - 27 listed brokerages are expected to report a year-on-year performance increase of over 50% (excluding non-recurring items) [5] - The report suggests that the brokerage sector remains undervalued, with significant institutional underweight, presenting investment opportunities [5] Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance reported a new single premium of 158 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, while the bank insurance channel saw a 90.2% increase [6] - The report indicates that the insurance sector is under-allocated in public funds compared to the CSI 300 index, suggesting potential for recovery [6] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guotai Junan, Dongfang Securities, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Pacific Insurance [7] - Beneficiary stocks include Guosen Securities, CICC, and Xinhua Insurance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive trend in the performance forecasts of A-share companies for the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in the pre-announcement rate compared to the previous year, with expectations for the market to rise in the second half of the year [2][3][12]. Performance Forecasts - Over 1,500 A-share companies have disclosed their performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with more than 300 companies expecting a year-on-year net profit growth of over 100% and over 40 companies expecting growth exceeding 500% [3]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-shares is 43.29%, slightly up from 42.64% in 2024, but still at a relatively low level compared to the past decade [3]. - The sectors with the highest pre-announcement rates include non-bank financials (82.5%), non-ferrous metals (74.1%), electronics (61.0%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (56.6%), and automobiles (51.7%) [3]. Sector Performance - Significant growth has been observed in sectors such as media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, building materials, transportation, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and home appliances [6]. - Conversely, sectors like light industry manufacturing, retail, environmental protection, and oil and petrochemicals are experiencing negative growth with substantial year-on-year declines [7]. Analyst Ratings Adjustments - In the past two weeks, eight A-share stocks have had their ratings upgraded by brokerages, primarily due to strong performance forecasts for the first half of the year [9]. - Notable upgrades include: - Miaokelando's rating raised from "Neutral" to "Buy" based on a projected net profit of 120 million to 145 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.29% to 88.86% [10]. - Shanhai Environmental's rating upgraded from "Hold" to "Buy" due to a turnaround in profitability and increased demand for its products [10]. - Morning Light Bio's rating raised to "Strongly Recommend" based on exceeding profit expectations and leading positions in various product categories [10]. Market Outlook - Analysts generally expect the market to rise in the second half of the year, with a potential breakthrough of the high point from October 8 of the previous year [12][13]. - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and high-dividend stocks, with a focus on sectors such as AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, and defense [12]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index is at a median level over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive catalytic effect of the development of RWA (Real World Assets) business in Hong Kong on valuations, highlighting strategic collaborations and the potential for significant market expansion [4][7]. - It notes that the insurance sector is experiencing a favorable environment with a focus on undervalued companies and mid-year performance opportunities, recommending several key players [4][11]. - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with a recommendation for firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics and those with strong earnings elasticity [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,058.55 with a weekly change of +1.1%, while the non-bank index closed at 1,921.37 with a change of -1.2% [7]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported respective changes of -1.1%, -1.4%, and -2.4% [7]. Non-Bank Industry Insights - The report discusses the strategic partnership between GCL-Poly and Taiping Asset Management in Hong Kong, focusing on RWA infrastructure development and digital asset investment [4]. - It highlights the significant growth potential in the tokenization of non-liquid assets, estimating a market size of $16 trillion by 2030 [4]. - The report also notes the performance of various insurance companies, with significant year-on-year growth in premium income for several key players [35][32]. Brokerage Sector Analysis - The report indicates that 30 out of 51 listed brokerages have reported positive earnings forecasts, with net profit growth exceeding 40% for those that disclosed results [4]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a 52% year-on-year increase [22]. - The report recommends several brokerage firms based on their competitive positioning and earnings potential, including Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities [4][11].

Group 1 - The A-share market may challenge the 3700-point level in the second half of the year, driven by increased foreign investment and favorable monetary policy [3][4] - Northbound capital has significantly increased, with a total of 54.8 billion yuan invested in the second quarter, focusing on leading stocks like Ningde Times and Heng Rui Medicine [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is over 13 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 1.28, indicating potential for upward movement compared to historical averages [3] Group 2 - The 3700-point level is a significant resistance due to a high number of trapped investors from previous market peaks in 2015 and 2021, which may hinder upward movement [3] - Despite policy support, challenges remain, including incomplete consumer recovery and lack of significant improvement in corporate earnings [3][4] - Investment opportunities may lie in sectors such as solid-state batteries, brokerage firms, and military industry, with a focus on companies with stable cash flow and strong dividends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest from major institutions like E Fund and Barclays in Zhongzhou Securities has drawn significant market attention, highlighting the potential growth prospects of the brokerage sector [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Investment - On July 11, Barclays purchased approximately 125 million shares of Zhongzhou Securities, achieving a holding ratio of 12.46% [2]. - E Fund acquired 5.27% of Zhongzhou Securities, increasing its total shares to 62.96 million [2]. - The stock price of Zhongzhou Securities surged over 75% on the same day, closing with a gain of 47.48% [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The surge in brokerage stocks on July 11 was linked to news regarding stablecoins [2]. - The brokerage sector has seen a strong performance, with major firms reporting significant profit growth, indicating a robust equity market [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the brokerage sector is undervalued and underweighted, with H-shares showing more advantages compared to A-shares [4]. - The price disparity between A-shares and H-shares indicates potential investment opportunities, with current premiums for A-shares over H-shares being substantial [4][5].

Group 1: US Stock Market - The US stock market is expected to experience a "slight upward fluctuation" in the second half of the year, with weaker gains compared to the first half, influenced by three core variables: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, fundamental performance, and bond yield fluctuations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with potential cuts in September and December, which could support risk assets in Q4 [1] - Market volatility may arise from disappointing earnings during the mid-year reporting season and trade war risks, while a rate cut in Q4 could increase upward momentum [1] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market is entering a "certain slow bull" phase, driven by low interest rates, wealth reallocation, policy guidance, and significant events, with a high probability of reaching new highs since September 24 of the previous year [3][4] - The low interest rate environment creates a reallocation demand for the 160 trillion yuan in household savings, favoring value assets and enhancing market risk appetite [4] - Structural opportunities include focusing on value stocks in finance, upstream materials, and companies benefiting from globalization, as well as growth stocks in technology and new consumption sectors [5] Group 3: Anti-Internalization Policy - The anti-internalization policy is a long-term theme in economic transformation, expected to unfold in three phases: policy expectation-driven phase, implementation phase with market divergence, and a main market phase with accelerated mergers and acquisitions [6][7] - The current phase has seen leading stocks in overcapacity industries like photovoltaic and cement begin to respond to policy expectations [6] Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a "long summer" bull market, with strong performance expected in the second half, driven by national empowerment, market ecosystem optimization, and inflow of incremental capital [8][9] - The market is transitioning from an "offshore market" to "onshore" with diversified investment needs revealing opportunities in small and medium-sized growth stocks [9] Group 5: Asset Allocation - In terms of asset allocation, stocks are recommended as the first choice, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks offering better value than US stocks, benefiting from their respective market conditions [10] - Long-term outlook for gold and digital assets is positive, with gold expected to break through $3,500 per ounce, while digital assets may be affected by US bond yields [10]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0714-0718） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年7月19日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月18日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 16.08 5 10 15 20 25 ...