Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, is attributed to a confluence of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical uncertainties, marking a shift from single-factor to multi-factor driving forces [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 15:00, London gold reached a record high of $4420.07 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $4381.48 on October 20 [1] - London silver also hit a new peak at $69.45 per ounce, while COMEX gold and silver futures reached $4443.5 and $69.525 per ounce, respectively, both setting historical records [1] - Platinum and palladium also showed strong performance, with platinum rising to $2074.1 per ounce, a 4% increase, and palladium reaching $1796.5 per ounce, also up over 4% [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - The comprehensive rise in precious metals is driven by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties, which collectively provide a long-term risk premium for precious metals [2] - The activation of market bullish sentiment was primarily due to gold's historical high, which in turn stimulated interest in silver, platinum, and palladium, creating a complete chain reaction from financial attributes to industrial properties [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future price movements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are expected to diverge, with gold likely maintaining a steady trajectory due to its strong financial attributes, while silver's price will be influenced by industrial demand, particularly in green technologies [2] - Platinum and palladium will be more closely tied to the recovery of the automotive sector and overall economic conditions, with their correlation to gold potentially weakening [2] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Despite favorable macro conditions for precious metals, prices are at historical highs, prompting a cautious approach for investors who should recognize potential risks and align their strategies with their risk tolerance [3] - Investors are advised to view precious metals as a long-term defensive asset rather than a short-term speculative tool, with strategies such as dollar-cost averaging into gold or gold ETFs recommended for building positions gradually [3]

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent surge in London spot silver prices, which have increased over 30% since November 24, is attributed to macro liquidity easing, supply-demand imbalances, and heightened investment demand [1][3] - The macro liquidity aspect is influenced by the Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts this year and expectations of further cuts in 2026, leading to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16% and a drop in the dollar index below 100, which enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [1][3] - On the supply side, a structural shortage in the global silver market has persisted for several years, driven by rapid industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI, while mineral supply remains constrained, resulting in historically low visible inventories [1][2] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures market is facing significant delivery pressure due to high physical delivery demands and tight available resources, with the largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increasing its holdings by 760.37 tons (4.98%) since November 21, further straining market liquidity [2] - Policy uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. "232 investigation" results expected on January 17, 2026, are causing market concerns over rising import costs, prompting investors to stockpile physical silver, which exacerbates the tight supply situation [2][3] - In the short term, while silver prices have incorporated a lot of optimistic expectations, the underlying support from the Fed's easing cycle, rigid growth in green energy demand, and ongoing supply-demand gaps remain intact, suggesting that silver prices are likely to stay above $60 per ounce [3]

近期，国际贵金属市场迎来一轮凌厉涨势，黄金、白银价格持续攀升并刷新历史纪录。与此同时，具备 较强金融属性的铜等有色金属也同步走强。记者了解到，贵金属这一波行情的核心驱动力是宽松的货币 环境带来的流动性。 "美联储主席鲍威尔向市场释放了利多信号，一方面，美联储不仅如市场预期般降息25个基点，更意外 宣布重启量化宽松，每月购买400亿美元短期国债；另一方面，鲍威尔表示，通胀可能受关税影响见 顶，而就业市场风险较大，暗示未来仍有多次降息可能。这一转向彻底打破了此前'预防式降息结束'的 预期，宽松货币环境直接助推贵金属价格走高。"正信期货首席宏观分析师蒲祖林说。 格林大华首席专家王骏认为，2025年伦敦黄金现货价格从年初的2650美元／盎司冲高至12月的4400美元 ／盎司上方，年内涨幅超68%，远超股票、债券、有色金属等其他主流资产，这种价格跃迁深刻体现了 当前全球经济金融格局下，贵金属的商品属性与金融属性的双重强化。 值得关注的是，本轮行情展现出与历史周期不同的显著特点。通常情况下，代表持有黄金机会成本的美 国10年期国债实际利率与金价呈负相关。但当前，实际利率维持在高位平台震荡，而金价却同步飙升。 "值得注意的 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.02%报 4515 美元/盎司，创历史新高，COMEX 白银期货收涨 | | | | | 4.44%报 71.61 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.42%报 1012.58 元/克，沪银涨 4.14%报 16961 | | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 23 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日维持不变， | | | | | 持仓量为 1064.56 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日减少 | | | | | 95.88 吨， ...

盘前要闻 1、英伟达放风春节前向中国客户交付H200芯片 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 多位知情人士透露，英伟达已告知中国客户，计划于明年2月中旬，即春节前向中国客户交付其性能排 名第二的人工智能芯片H200。还表示，英伟达计划动用库存履行首批订单，预计发货总量为5000至 10000套芯片模组，相当于约4万至8万颗H200芯片。不过能否顺利交付仍存在较大不确定性。 2、我国自动驾驶正式进入量产!北京发放首批L3级车辆专用号牌 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 12月23日，北京首批L3级自动驾驶车辆专用号牌正式发放给三辆智能网联汽车，这是国内首批发放的 L3级自动驾驶车辆专用号牌。标志着我国自动驾驶车辆已由测试示范进展到正式量产。研究认为，随 着特斯拉Robotaxi的持续放量验证，以及中国L3车型制度化落地，高阶自动驾驶产业拐点正加速到来。 3、伦铜突破12000美元、黄金涨破4500，贵金属牛市继续扩散 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美联储进一步降息预期的推动下，黄金和白银再度飙升至历史新高。截 至发稿，现货黄金首次涨破4500美元/盎司关口，白银每盎司超71美元。而伦铜突破12000 ...

东方证券：市场整体处于缩量整固期，上行力度明显不大，趋势性机会需等待积极信号 东方证券表示，综合来看，市场临近年底，整体处于缩量整固期，尽管短期股指初步形成反弹之势，但 上行力度明显不大，沪综指仍以围绕3900点震荡为主，趋势性机会需等待积极信号出现。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：冯秋怡。 继续看好AI投资与全球制造业复苏共振的工业资源品——铜、铝、锡、锂、原油及油运；二是抓住入 境修复与居民增收叠加的消费回升通道——航空、酒店、免税、食品饮料；三是受益于资本市场扩容与 长期资产端回报率见底的非银(保险、券商)；四是具备全球比较优势且周期底部确认的中国设备出口链 ——电网设备、储能、锂电、光伏、工程机械、商用车、照明，以及国内制造业底部反转品种——印 染、煤化工、农药、聚氨酯、钛白粉。 信达证券：春节前大概率仍有春季躁动行情，配置非银金融、电力设备、机械设备等 信达证券表示，战术上，牛市的基础依然坚实，年度上存在盈利改善和资金流入共振的可能性。战略 上，考虑到当前A股估值不低，强力稳增长预期下降，外围市场不确定性风险仍存，短期市场或处于跨 年行情启动前的调整期。2026年春节前大概率仍有春季躁动行 ...

东吴证券认为，周二，虽然指数方面保持红盘，但大部分个股出现了调整，领先指数整体震荡走低，本 轮调整目前看为连续上涨后的良性调整，大部分品种的回调幅度较小，综合近期成交量的有效放大来 看，在上证指数3900点左右平台筹码正在进行有序交换，前期观望资金正在进行入场的动作，A股市场 人气处于逐渐复苏的状态。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 财信证券认为，周二（12月23日），A股大盘冲高回落，个股跌多涨少。指数层面维持着震荡反弹趋 势，不过市场分化特征仍较明显，当日"二八"分化行情主要缘于前期强势题材商业航天和消费板块有所 走弱，导致市场短线情绪受到一定影响，资金选择中大盘股进行承接。因此短期内，大盘或维持震荡反 弹势头，不过在全市场成交额暂未稳定在2万亿元以上的情况下，仍以板块轮动思维参与市场，把握好 结构性机会。展望后续，随着11月份经济数据公布以及海外三大央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市 场影响消退，流动性及风险偏好对市场影响将增加，叠加国内政策利好预期，市场有望逐步演绎"春季 躁动"行情，指数放量突破均线将是观察"春季躁动"行情开启的关键信号。 中原证券认为，周二，A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上行。盘中电池、能源 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy is undergoing a structural transformation from "urban investment - real estate" to "industry - consumption" drive, with changes in core economic contradictions, transmission mechanisms, and cycle laws, and some analysis paradigms need optimization. The importance of fiscal policy is increasing, and more attention is paid to industry analysis on the supply side, while the demand side is shifting from investment - driven to consumption - driven. The old economy, though no longer the main economic engine, can still provide growth elasticity if it stabilizes marginally [29]. - Some investors' concerns about banks' long - term bond - holding capacity may be excessive. In the short term, the ultra - long - term bond market may continue to fluctuate, but in the long run, upward adjustment may face resistance [29]. - Near the end of the year, wealth management may face a certain pressure to return to the balance sheet, but the demand for credit bonds may remain relatively stable. Credit bond yields may fluctuate with interest - rate bonds, and there are trading opportunities in high - quality central - state - owned enterprise real estate bonds [30]. - In 2026, the stock market's upward momentum may shift from single - valuation - driven to "profit + valuation" double - driven. The overall performance of listed companies is expected to improve, and the market may attract more new funds [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, social financing increased by 24885 billion yuan, up from 8161 billion yuan last year. M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but down from 12.7% in the same period last year; M1 increased by 4.9%, down from 6.2% in the previous month but up from - 0.7% in the same period last year; M2 increased by 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month but up from 7.1% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions reached 3900 billion yuan, up from 2200 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800 billion yuan in the same period last year. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month but up from - 2.5% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to strengthen risk prevention due to unstable market factors and volatile precious - metal prices. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, daily price limits, and margin requirements for platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate futures contracts, and restricted the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures contracts to strengthen market risk management [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 24, international gold prices hit a record high, breaking through $4500 per ounce, driven by the escalating situation in Venezuela and expectations of further interest - rate cuts in the US next year. Spot platinum exceeded $2300 per ounce, and spot silver reached a historical high of $71.58 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices hit a record high, breaking through $12000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of about 37% this year, due to mine shutdowns and trade disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies. Domestic gold - jewelry prices also rose, with some brands' pure - gold jewelry prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [5]. - The tin industry association called for rationality as tin prices deviated from fundamentals. The lithium industry's Q3 performance improved, with rising lithium carbonate futures prices in November. Market inventory decreased, and demand from new - energy vehicles and energy storage was strong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, domestic steel prices fluctuated narrowly, with a significant decline in crude steel production and high social inventory, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. In December, prices continued to fluctuate narrowly due to multiple factors [9]. - China's first million - ton near - zero - carbon steel production line in Zhanjiang was fully connected, using hydrogen metallurgy and electric smelting technology, reducing carbon emissions by 50% - 80% compared with traditional processes [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 23, US oil prices rose due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers. As of December 16, crude - oil speculators increased their net short positions in WTI [10][11]. - Serbia extended its natural gas supply agreement with Russia until March 31, 2026, ensuring winter energy supply. Russia attacked Ukrainian oil and gas exploration facilities [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the pig inventory in the fourth quarter increased by 0.6% year - on - year [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan as 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct 2100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders on December 26 [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their core businesses, enhance core competitiveness, and promote innovation and reform. Premier Li Qiang called on central enterprises to play important roles in infrastructure construction, supply - chain stability, and technological self - reliance [15]. - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed that local governments adjust real - estate policies, and promote the construction of a new real - estate development model, including project - company system, lead - bank system, and spot - housing sales system [16]. - The US FCC included foreign - made drones and components in the "unreliable suppliers list," and China firmly opposed this. The RMB exchange rate strengthened recently, driven by a weakening US dollar and year - end settlement demand [17]. - In 2025, local - government debt issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and local governments plan to issue more bonds in Q1 2026, with an expected scale of over 1 trillion yuan, to support economic growth [18]. - The "AI bond - issuance wave" pushed US corporate bond issuance close to the historical record, with AI - related borrowing accounting for about 30% of US investment - grade bond net issuance [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with 30 - year treasury - bond futures rising nearly 1%. Interest - rate bond yields generally declined, and the inter - bank market funds were abundant. Some corporate bonds, such as those of Vanke, fluctuated, and convertible - bond indexes declined [24][25]. - Most money - market interest rates declined, and the yields of European bonds decreased, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 95 points to 7.0287, and the RMB central parity rate rose 49 points to 7.0523. The US dollar index fell 0.37%, and most non - US currencies rose [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market fluctuated slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.41%. Lithium - battery and lithography - machine sectors strengthened, while tourism stocks declined. Three new stocks had significant gains [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.69%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29%. Gold and wind - power stocks led the rise, while technology stocks were mostly weak. Some new stocks had large price fluctuations [33]. - The new - issue scale of equity funds exceeded 400 billion shares this year, setting a new record. Many public - fund institutions held 2026 strategy meetings to discuss investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, consumption, and innovative drugs [33][34].

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on December 23, opening at $4,431.70 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,497.86, a low of $4,428.08, and closing at $4,458.46 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an annualized GDP growth rate of 4.3% for Q3 2025, surpassing market expectations of 3.2% [3] - Household spending was the main catalyst for economic growth, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP, while strong international demand for U.S. products and services added 0.9 percentage points, and public sector spending contributed 0.4 percentage points [3] - Despite concerns about an economic slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, indicating a strong core of the U.S. economy as the year ends [3] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 116.8 and the Expectations Index remaining steady at 70.7, indicating potential recession signals as it has been below 80 for 11 consecutive months [4] - Four out of five components of the overall index declined, with consumers expressing concerns primarily about prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and political issues [4] Investment Insights - Despite the strong GDP growth, concerns remain regarding stagnation in actual business fixed investment, which grew only 1.0%, and a decline in residential investment, leading to a slight contraction in overall private investment [5] - The core indicator of domestic demand, actual private final sales to domestic purchasers, grew by 3.0%, consistent with Q2 growth [5] - The rise in software costs by 5.6% due to accelerated AI adoption has contributed to a 5.1% increase in investment goods prices [5] Economic Commentary - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggested revisiting the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target once inflation returns to that level, proposing a range of 1.5%-2.5% or 1%-3% instead [6] - President Trump praised the GDP data but expressed concerns that good news could lead to market stagnation due to fears of immediate interest rate hikes [7] - The National Economic Council Director highlighted the strong GDP growth as a result of Trump's trade policies and AI investments, predicting a rebound in job growth [7] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has deployed special operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean, indicating potential military actions in the region, particularly against Venezuela [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 1,064.56 tons [8] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 13.3%, with an 86.7% chance of maintaining current rates [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they are trending upwards. - For the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - scale fluctuations. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested as they are rebounding and rising [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview | Option Variety | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume Change | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,890 | 980 | 1.04 | 13.88 | - 7.12 | 24.11 | - 0.57 | | Aluminum | 22,160 | 35 | 0.16 | 20.94 | - 4.45 | 30.18 | - 1.25 | | Zinc | 23,105 | 90 | 0.39 | 13.38 | - 0.06 | 9.31 | 0.25 | | Lead | 17,050 | 85 | 0.50 | 4.46 | - 0.46 | 5.81 | - 0.15 | | Nickel | 125,360 | 3,080 | 2.52 | 38.70 | 17.24 | 13.45 | 2.18 | | Tin | 336,110 | - 5,570 | - 1.63 | 22.86 | - 1.65 | 6.12 | 0.47 | | Alumina | 2,553 | 22 | 0.87 | 14.66 | 2.42 | 21.74 | - 0.38 | | Gold | 1,012.58 | 4.22 | 0.42 | 27.64 | - 0.24 | 19.99 | - 0.24 | | Silver | 16,961 | 674 | 4.14 | 123.02 | - 47.46 | 34.05 | - 0.09 | | Lithium Carbonate | 118,600 | 6,260 | 5.57 | 1.79 | - 0.89 | 3.49 | 0.09 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,735 | 115 | 1.33 | 3.86 | 2.10 | 8.93 | - 0.19 | | Polysilicon | 59,125 | - 655 | - 1.10 | 2.52 | - 0.82 | 2.89 | - 0.30 | | Rebar | 3,115 | - 19 | - 0.61 | 84.93 | 0.69 | 158.00 | - 1.19 | | Iron Ore | 787.50 | - 5.00 | - 0.63 | 0.64 | - 0.38 | 7.37 | - 0.04 | | Manganese Silicon | 5,804 | - 14 | - 0.24 | 1.73 | - 0.35 | 3.09 | - 0.27 | | Ferrosilicon | 5,520 | 20 | 0.36 | 4.38 | - 4.06 | 3.24 | - 0.28 | | Glass | 979 | 3 | 0.31 | 2.75 | - 0.88 | 4.25 | - 0.05 | [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR for different option varieties are presented, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for different option varieties are provided, which are derived from the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, are given for various option varieties [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a short - volatility seller option combination, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Build a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Build a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a combination of selling slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals**: - **Silver**: Build a bull spread combination of call options, a slightly bullish short - volatility option seller combination, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Series**: - **Rebar**: Build a combination of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a combination of selling slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Manganese Silicon**: Build a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Build a bear spread combination of put options, a combination of selling short - volatility call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Build a bear spread combination of put options, a combination of selling short - volatility call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15].