Group 1: Overall Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 28.767 billion CNY, with feed product revenue accounting for 19.054 billion CNY (66.24%) [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 715 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 115.9% [2] - The overall gross profit margin improved to 15.14% [2] Group 2: Business Segment Performance Feed Segment - In 2024, external sales volume of feed products was 5.4055 million tons, a decrease of 7.6% year-on-year [3] - Revenue from pig feed was 14.658 billion CNY, down 21.7% due to raw material price declines [3] - Aquaculture feed external sales volume decreased by 29.9%, with revenue of 1.33 billion CNY, a 32.3% decline [3] Pig Farming Segment - Total pig output for 2024 was 6.4046 million heads, a 5.9% increase year-on-year [4] - Average profit per head was 175 CNY, with some regions exceeding 300 CNY [4] - The total cost of pig farming was below 14 CNY/kg [4] Seed Industry Segment - In 2024, total sales of corn, rice, and soybean seeds reached 53.5264 million kg [5] - Corn seed sales were 36.3039 million kg, down 9%, generating revenue of 820 million CNY [5] - Soybean seed sales increased by 102%, achieving revenue of 22 million CNY [5] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.865 billion CNY, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [7] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 134 million CNY, a 164.13% increase [7] - Pig farming output for Q1 2025 was 1.8399 million heads, a 26.7% increase [7] Group 4: Future Technology and Research Initiatives - The company is advancing synthetic biology research, focusing on high-efficiency genetic transformation and gene editing [10] - The establishment of the Agricultural Synthetic Biology Innovation Center aims to develop key technologies in agricultural biotechnology [12] - The center will support the development of new products such as feed proteins and green fertilizers [12] Group 5: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented measures to reduce costs in pig farming, achieving a complete cost of 12.9 CNY/kg [8] - Strategies include breed improvement, enhanced biosecurity, and optimized nutrition [14] - The company aims to further reduce costs through continuous improvements in various operational aspects [14] Group 6: Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company targets a feed production capacity of 10 million tons, focusing on differentiated product offerings [18] - The market share for seed traits is expected to increase, supported by favorable government policies [17] - The company plans to enhance collaboration across business segments to explore new growth opportunities [19]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 02 日 大北农（002385.SZ） 养殖盈利修复，饲料及种业开局良好 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1饲料及种业开局良好、养殖盈利改善。公司未来将聚焦强化种业、疫苗动 保等科技产业业务，夯实饲料业务，平稳发展生猪养殖业务。 ❑ 风险提示：猪价表现/公司规模扩张低于预期，突发大规模不可控疫情；自然 灾害，转基因商业化进度不达预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 33390 | 28767 | 33720 | 35969 | 38193 | | 同比增长 | 3% | -14% | 17% | 7% | 6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | (2485) | 791 | 805 | 984 | 1218 | | 同比增长 | -761% | -132% | 2% | 22% | 24% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | (2174) | 346 | 549 | 725 | 93 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.767 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 346 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 6.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, with a net profit of 134 million yuan, also turning from loss to profit [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to expected declines in pig prices, projecting net profits of 767 million yuan, 804 million yuan, and 836 million yuan for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Feed Business - In 2024, feed revenue was 19.054 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.68%, with a gross margin of 12.49%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - Total feed sales were 5.4055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.61%, with significant growth in poultry feed sales, which increased by 54.55% [2] - The company optimized its channel structure, with 32% of feed product revenue from distribution channels and 68% from direct sales [2] Group 3: Swine Business - The company sold 6.405 million pigs in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.89%, with swine business revenue of 6.278 billion yuan, up 10.10% year-on-year [2] - The net profit from swine business was 1.122 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 19.80%, an increase of 27.71 percentage points, attributed to rising pig prices and declining breeding costs [2] Group 4: Seed Business - In 2024, seed revenue was 1.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.40%, with sales of 53.5264 million kilograms, up 1.7% [3] - The company has a robust reserve of genetically modified traits, with multiple products approved for production and import licenses [3] - As of April 8, 2025, 97 genetically modified corn varieties passed initial review, with 61% of them utilizing the company's traits [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry in Zhenning Bouyei and Miao Autonomous County has become a new economic pillar, thriving despite national challenges in pig production due to the African swine fever epidemic [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - Zhenning, once a national poverty-stricken county, has leveraged its geographical and climatic advantages to develop its pig farming sector [1]. - The pig farming industry is now a leading agricultural sector in Zhenning, contributing positively to local economic growth [1]. Group 2: Risk Management Initiatives - The "insurance + futures" project, supported by Dalian Commodity Exchange, aims to provide comprehensive risk protection for local pig farmers [1][2]. - The project has been optimized for 2024, utilizing an enhanced Asian-style put option settlement method to better address price volatility risks [2]. - The project offers risk coverage of approximately 2.349 million yuan for 1,000 pigs, with a premium scale of about 137,000 yuan, including policy subsidies [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company plans to continue leveraging futures market mechanisms to provide robust risk protection for farmers, contributing to stable agricultural development and rural revitalization [3].

4月30日，农业农村部党组书记、部长韩俊主持召开部党组会议，强化政策谋划实施，抓实抓细农业农 村各项工作，牢牢稳住"三农"基本盘，为促进经济持续回升向好提供基础支撑。会议强调，要着力稳定 粮食等重要农产品生产供应，紧盯不放抓好夏粮生产，进一步强化旱情灾情第一时间响应机制，及时派 出工作组和科技小分队指导抗旱救灾工作，努力减轻旱情影响，围绕三夏重要关口及早落实稳产增产措 施，奋力夺取夏粮丰收。要持续抓好奶牛肉牛产业纾困，合理调控生猪产能，深挖农业农村领域消费潜 力，加快实施农业农村领域"人工智能+"行动。要防范化解农业农村领域风险隐患，加强渔船渔港、农 机等重点领域安全风险排查整治，坚决遏制重特大事故发生。(人民财讯) ...

牧原股份此前曾在业绩预告中表示，公司一季度业绩大增的主要原因是生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。 其中，营收达到200亿的有3家，营收同比增长的有9家，正邦科技（002157）以108.22%的同比增幅领跑全场；归母净利润超过20亿的有2家，牧原股份 （002714）以44.91亿元稳居榜首；归母净利润实现同比增长的有8家，且除了东瑞股份（001201）增速为93.31%外，其余公司增速均超100%，神农集团 （605296）更是以6510.85%的增速成为当之无愧的"黑马"。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 营业收入 | 营业收入同比变化 | 归母净 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (%) | | | 002714. SZ | 牧原股份 | 360. 61 | 37. 26 | 44 | | 300498. SZ | 温氏股份 | 243. 18 | 11. 34 | 20 | | 000876. SZ | 新希望 | 244. 17 | 2. 13 | 4. | | 605296. SH | 神农集团 | 1 ...

在云南彝良小草坝，海拔近2000米的山野里，一群黑猪正慢慢长大。 它们喝的是天麻竹根水，吃的是山果、野草和五谷杂粮，日复一日地撒欢、觅食、晒太阳。 小草坝盛产天麻，不光滋养了人，也养出了这里的黑猪界明星。 "方圆三公里内无人烟，乌蒙山形成天然防护栏，负氧离子浓度高得像天然氧吧，养出来的猪品质怎么 会差。"杨永军说道，他是高金食品养殖运营总监，2005年从四川农业大学毕业后，20年只做一件事： 养猪。 如果把平原里白猪的养殖节奏比作"高强度996"，那么小草坝的黑猪，走的是"佛系慢养"路线。 作者 | 孟雪 统筹 | 文芳 视觉 | 顾芗 这里没有催生的饲料，没有赶工的时钟，只有充足的时间和自然的养育。 在城市高速运转的另一头，这群黑猪，以另一种节奏，续写着关于生长和品质的答案。 这是一头猪的故事，也是关于市场变化、供应链进化，和味觉记忆的一种回响。 一头猪的慢生活 云南彝良小草坝，地处川滇交界，群山环绕，雾霭迷蒙，是鲜有人至的世外桃源。 不像平原养殖的白猪，赶着100来天就出栏，来自小草坝的黑猪则是要足足300天，才能修炼成"肉质鲜 美，油花如雪"的肉类精品。 作为叮咚买菜的重要合作伙伴，高金食品花了十多年时 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of the pig market are weak. Although holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound after the festival, the market will face pressure again later. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [5][6]. - On the supply side, as the May Day holiday approaches, some breeders and second - fattening farmers are selling large pigs, increasing the average weight of slaughtered pigs. The risk of second - fattening has increased, and the enthusiasm for entry has weakened. The pressure from the postponed supply may gradually emerge after mid - to late May. According to the pig breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing [6]. - On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. It is expected that the terminal demand will improve during the May Day holiday, but the demand may cool down again after the holiday, and the operating rate may first increase and then decrease. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few areas [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - Strategy: Wait for a rebound to short [5]. - Market review: Pig prices continued to decline, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week. Market outlook: Supply pressure will gradually increase in the medium term, and demand may first increase and then decrease. Holiday demand may drive a short - term price rebound, but the market will be under pressure again [6]. **Futures Market Situation** - Futures prices fell, with the main contract down 1.7% for the week [6][10]. - The net short position in futures decreased, and the number of futures warrants increased. As of April 30, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 15,386 lots, a decrease of 2,407 lots from the previous week, and the number of futures warrants was 705, an increase of 40 from the previous week [12][16]. **Spot Market Situation** - The basis of the May contract was 1,110 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 1,290 yuan/ton [20]. - The national average pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from the previous week but an increase of 1.7% from the previous month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but an increase of 0.86% from the previous month [27]. - The national average pork price was 26.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - As of April 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, a decrease of 0.03 from the previous week [37]. **Upstream Situation** - In March 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 270,000 heads from the previous month, an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly in March [42]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory increased year - on - year. In March, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [45]. - In March, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national foreign - ternary pigs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from the previous week [48]. **Industry Situation** - As of April 25, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head from the previous week; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head from the previous week. The poultry breeding profit was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from the previous week [53]. - From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58]. - As of April 25, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week; as of April 24, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was 0.1 yuan/kg, a narrowing of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [61]. - As of April 30, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,544.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 424 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,313.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.16 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - As of April 30, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 951.35, an increase of 0.11% from the previous week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [70]. - As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.772 million tons, an increase of 1.428 million tons year - on - year [73]. - As of March 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month [77]. **Downstream Situation** - In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points from the previous week and 0.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week [80]. - As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million heads, a decrease of 42.95% from the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [85]. **Pig - related Stocks** The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [86].

2025 年 04 月 30 日 养殖成本保持优势地位，产能规模有望延续增长 势头 | 基本数据 | 2025-04-29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 29.21 | | 总市值（亿元） | 153 | | 总股本（百万股） | 525 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 523 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 24.81-44.99 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 123.21 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 神农集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《神农集团（605296）：成本优 势地位稳固，定增扩产维持独一档 负债率表现》2025-04-14 2、《神农集团（605296）：业绩实 现高增长，成本优势持续巩固》 2024-08-29 3、《神农集团（605296）：养殖成 本行业领先，出栏量快速增长》 2024-08-07 —神农集团（605296.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：娄倩 | S1050524070002 | | --- | --- | | louqian@cf ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 养殖成本保持优势地位，产能规模有望延续增长 势头 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：娄倩 | S1050524070002 | | --- | --- | | louqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：卫正 | S1050124080020 | | weizheng2@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-04-29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 29.21 | | 总市值（亿元） | 153 | | 总股本（百万股） | 525 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 523 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 24.81-44.99 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 123.21 | 市场表现 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 神农集团 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《神农集团（605296）：成本优 势地位稳固，定增扩产维持独一档 负债率表现》2025-04-14 2、《神农集团（605296）：业绩实 现高增长，成本优势持续巩固》 2024-08-29 3 ...