1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector [9]. - A seller - dominated options portfolio strategy, along with spot hedging or covered strategies, should be constructed to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2511) is 495, with a price increase of 6 and a price change rate of 1.21% [4]. 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options are provided, along with their changes. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the options underlying market and the timing of market turning points. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.66, with a change of - 0.07, and the open interest PCR is 1.10, with a change of 0.01 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options is 570, and the support level is 480 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 40.31, and the weighted implied volatility is 43.83, with a change of 5.56 [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil Options** - **Fundamentals**: OPEC +'s production return plan may exacerbate the supply surplus, but the Russia - Ukraine situation causes supply disruptions. The US EIA apparent demand is weak, and the economic recovery after interest rate cuts needs to be observed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Since July, crude oil has shown a pattern of weakening, followed by range - bound consolidation, and then a rebound. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates at a level slightly higher than the average. The open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating some support below. The pressure level is 570, and the support level is 480 [8]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short neutral call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [8]. - **LPG Options** - **Fundamentals**: The maintenance of PDH plants in China is stable, but the profit of PDH plants has declined significantly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decline after entering the peak season [10]. - **Market Analysis**: LPG has shown a pattern of over - decline and rebound, with pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4200 [10]. - **Options Strategies**: Similar to crude oil options, construct a short neutral call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol Options** - **Fundamentals**: Port and enterprise inventories of methanol have decreased, and enterprise orders to be delivered have increased due to pre - holiday downstream stocking [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol has shown a weak upward trend with pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2350, and the support level is 2250 [10]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options** - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to be low and volatile in the short term and may enter a stocking cycle later [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol has shown a weak downward trend [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates slightly below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4250 [11]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options for directional strategies; construct a short volatility strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene Options** - **Fundamentals**: The inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE, with overall inventory reduction [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Polypropylene has shown a weak downward trend [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has decreased to near the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7400, and the support level is 6700 [12]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [12]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber Options** - **Fundamentals**: Pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the buying sentiment at home and abroad has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber prices [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber has shown a weak and volatile trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has risen rapidly and then dropped to near the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 17000, and the support level is 14500 [13]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies [13]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA Options** - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production and capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA have decreased, and social inventory has decreased [14]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA has shown a weak downward trend [14]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a level slightly higher than the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 5000, and the support level is 4600 [14]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies [14]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda Options** - **Fundamentals**: The caustic soda market is stable, with some fluctuations in the liquid caustic soda market and stability in the flake caustic soda market. Some chlor - alkali enterprises have maintenance or under - capacity operation, which has a certain positive impact on local prices [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda has shown a downward - trending and volatile pattern [15]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options is at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.90, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 3000, and the support level is 2440 [15]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy for directional strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash Options** - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased, and the inventory - available days have also decreased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Soda ash has shown a weak and volatile trend at a low level [15]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1300, and the support level is 1160 [15]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short volatility combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [15]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: The enterprise and port inventories of urea have increased, and the supply has returned, resulting in a continuous increase in enterprise inventory [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea has shown a weak and volatile trend at a low level [16]. - **Options Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1620 [16]. - **Options Strategies**: Construct a short bearish call + put options combination strategy for volatility strategies; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - position hedging [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: In the fourth quarter, the downside space is limited. Although the current downstream demand is mainly based on rigid - need purchases, there may be procurement willingness after the National Day due to low prices. In the fourth quarter, there may be concentrated stocking behavior, and the spot liquidity may tighten [2]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, pay attention to cost support. Although the supply is in an over - capacity situation, exports have alleviated some pressure. The cost side provides bottom support, and the downside space during the peak season is limited [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the PXN has a compression expectation. The price will be under pressure due to weak cost - side support and weak supply - demand expectations [6]. - **PTA**: In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to have an independent market and may follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a period of inventory accumulation as it enters the demand off - season [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the current maintenance is at a high point, and the inventory of the upper - middle reaches is being depleted. For PP, unplanned maintenance has increased due to losses, and the inventory has decreased. However, after the festival, there is a large inventory pressure, and the new capacity release limits the upside space [9]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol**: In the short term, it will continue the volatile pattern. The supply side has a game between the expected supply reduction and the relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak as the traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin device production expectations suppress the MTO demand [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the oil price trend and macro - market sentiment [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical and macro - news [26]. Fertilizer Industry - **Urea**: The futures price fluctuates downward. The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the export situation is uncertain [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price will likely maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. Unilateral trading is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and arbitrage is recommended to use a positive - spread strategy [33][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some products such as East China PVC by calcium carbide method decreased slightly, and the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC were mostly stable, but the export profit of caustic soda decreased by 26.3%, and that of PVC increased by 323.8% [2]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 0.9%, while the data of caustic soda start - up rate was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, and the PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong, and PVC upstream factories increased, while the total PVC social inventory remained unchanged [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased [6]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX and PX spot in RMB decreased [6]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price in East China increased slightly, and the PTA futures price decreased [6]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG spot price in East China decreased, and the MEG futures price also decreased [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other futures decreased slightly, and the price of East China PP raffia decreased by 0.3% [8][9]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased [9]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased slightly, and the regional spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port and social inventories of methanol decreased [21]. - **Start - up Rates**: The start - up rate of upstream domestic enterprises increased, while the start - up rates of some downstream industries decreased [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some upstream products such as CFR China pure benzene decreased, and the import profit of pure benzene decreased [25]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China spot and futures decreased slightly [25]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the styrene inventory increased. The start - up rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [25]. Fertilizer Industry - **Fertilizer Prices**: The prices of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur are provided on September 26 [28][29]. - **Urea Data**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea are presented. The daily output is high, and the demand is weak [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD decreased, and the spreads also changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and diesel changed [33].

Core Insights - The polyester industry is undergoing unprecedented profit restructuring due to global economic fluctuations and industrial adjustments, with the integration of futures and spot markets becoming crucial for stabilizing profits and ensuring operations [1] Industry Overview - The entire polyester supply chain is experiencing low profit levels, leading to increased pressure on companies. Both upstream PX and PTA producers and downstream polyester chip and weaving factories are facing challenges, with terms like "thin profits" and "high pressure" frequently mentioned by industry participants [2] - The industry is currently grappling with dual pressures of oversupply and insufficient demand, particularly during a global economic downturn, resulting in a continuous compression of processing profits across the supply chain [2][3] Profit Distribution - There is a noticeable divergence in profit distribution along the polyester supply chain, with upstream profits experiencing a brief recovery while downstream polyester product profits remain under pressure [3] - Some companies are shifting from traditional business models to explore new paths centered around the integration of futures and spot markets to address ongoing challenges [3] Risk Management Strategies - Companies are urged to build diversified hedging systems to better manage risks in a low processing fee environment. This includes dynamic inventory management, combination hedging strategies, and collaborative models with downstream clients to stabilize prices and expand processing profit margins [4] - The use of futures tools has become essential for companies to lock in future sales prices and raw material costs, helping them navigate the challenges posed by price volatility [5][6] Market Adaptation - The integration of futures tools has transitioned from being optional to a necessity for companies in the polyester industry, as they increasingly consider both spot and futures markets in their operations [7] - The high concentration of the polyester industry enhances the need for effective risk management, driving deeper application of futures tools across the supply chain [7][8] Future Outlook - The polyester industry's capacity utilization and concentration levels provide a strong self-regulating ability, with potential for production cuts to stabilize prices during loss periods [8] - Companies are encouraged to utilize futures tools to lock in prices and profits during profitable periods and to manage production levels during losses, ensuring supply stability for downstream clients [8][9]

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyester Data Weekly Report - Date: September 28, 2025 - Analyst: He Xiaoqin, Qian Jiayin 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG remains weak. Suggest 1 - 5 inverse spreads for these products. For PTA, consider shorting on the rebound of processing fees for 01/05 contracts. For MEG, operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 and consider the strategy of going long on L and short on MEG [3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PX Valuation - The PX valuation is affected by factors such as the strengthening of naphtha, the weakening of PXN, and the strong overseas oil product cracking spreads. The external PX is strong in the near - term, and attention should be paid to the monthly spread inverse spread [20][28][34]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX supply is gradually increasing. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). In August, the PX表观 consumption was 393000 tons, and the import volume was 88000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons. The inventory in August decreased to 3.9 million tons (-240000) [55][56][57][60][67][73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month spread is in an inverse spread. The PTA processing fee is at a low level, and the device operation willingness is weakened. The cost has collapsed, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has declined [79][81][87]. Supply and Demand - The PTA supply is gradually increasing. The current operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged). The cumulative PTA production from January to August 2025 was 48.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Exports increased from July to August, and the inventory is at a low level [90][93][106]. MEG Valuation - The MEG valuation shows a downward trend, and the basis remains high. The MEG is relatively more valuable compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics. The coal - based profit has dropped to 305 yuan/ton (-95), the naphtha - based MEG profit is -970 (-130) yuan/ton, and the MTO profit is -1106 (-70) yuan/ton [123][129][131]. Supply and Demand - The overall operating load of MEG in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to produce MEG is 74.36% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The supply pressure has marginally improved. The import volume in August was about 590000 tons, and it is expected to increase in September. The port inventory is at a low level [133][136][137]. Polyester - The current polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%). Affected by the typhoon, a 1.1 - million - ton bottle - chip factory in South China temporarily stopped production. The bottle - chip sales improved significantly, the filament factory's promotion drove the inventory to decrease by 7 - 10 days, and the staple fiber inventory continued to decline. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the festival [158][160].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers for ethylene glycol (EG) in the near - term are insufficient. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation for funds. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation for the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation has been further pressured under front - running trades. Since the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, it is not recommended to continue shorting before the expectation is realized. - The supply side of EG is operating at full capacity, with little chance of unexpected incremental supply and overall lacking supply elasticity. Considering the low inventory, relatively low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity of EG, the short - term downward price space is limited. However, if there are unexpected drivers from the supply side or the macro - environment, the upward price movement will be more elastic. - Currently, the supply - demand drivers for EG are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 4150 - 4350. A breakout requires cost - side and macro - level drivers. In terms of operations, due to short - term emotional suppression leading to an oversold situation, there is price support, and one can moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: EG is 4150 - 4450, PX is 6400 - 7100, PTA is 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips are 5600 - 6200. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.75% for EG, 12.56% for PX, 12.61% for PTA, and 9.81% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 3.2%, 27.4%, 19.0%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4320 - 4420. They can also buy EG2601P4100 put options to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 4180 - 4250. They can also sell EG2601P4100 put options to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the EG price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 50 - 80 [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Price Data**: On September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $68.8 per barrel, up $0.2 from the previous day; Naphtha CFR Japan was at $608.5 per ton, up $2.5. There were various price changes for other products such as PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers [6][10]. - **Spread Data**: TA main - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day; EG main - contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. There were also changes in month - to - month spreads for PX, PTA, and EG [10]. - **Processing Fee and Production - Sales Rate**: The gasoline reforming spread was $29 per ton, up $4 from the previous day; POY profit was 121 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. The production - sales rates of polyester filaments, short - fibers, and slices all showed different degrees of change [10]. 3.4 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", with a limited expected impact on the EG supply side, and further details need to be monitored [4]. - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year EG plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, with an undetermined restart time, potentially reducing imports in October. A 400,000 - ton/year EG plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October, and a 200,000 - ton EG plant in Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the import and export data of the polyester chain showed differentiation. PX imports continued to grow, and ethylene glycol imports remained stable. PTA exports declined, while polyester exports continued to rise year - on - year. Textile and clothing exports also showed different trends, with textile exports rebounding and clothing exports decreasing. The short - term impact of tariffs on clothing and textile exports has decreased, but the tariff negotiation dynamics need continuous attention [2]. 3. Summary by Content PX Import - In August, PX imports reached 87.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 615.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to expand. The top three import sources were South Korea, Japan, and Brunei [6][8]. PTA Export - In August, PTA exports were 29.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.8%. From January to August, the cumulative export was 253 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. The top five export destinations from January to August were Vietnam, Egypt, Oman, Turkey, and Pakistan. In August, exports to Turkey and India decreased significantly [3]. Ethylene Glycol Import - In August, ethylene glycol imports were 59.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume from Saudi Arabia decreased, but the increase from Kuwait, Oman, and the United States offset the reduction. From January to August, the cumulative import was 502.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%, and the year - on - year growth rate narrowed. Saudi Arabia is the main source of ethylene glycol imports, and future imports are expected to increase [6]. Polyester Export - From January to August, the cumulative polyester export was 962 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. In August, the export was 122.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. Short - fiber and filament exports performed well, while bottle - chip and film exports decreased month - on - month. The top five export destinations from January to August were Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, and India [4][5]. Textile and Clothing Export - From January to August, the cumulative textile and clothing export was $197.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, textile exports were $94.53 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, and clothing exports were $102.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In August, textile exports increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing exports decreased [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Chain Monthly Report for September [3][14][24] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [12][21][34] Core Viewpoint There is no explicit core viewpoint provided in the given content. Summary by Section 1. PX (Paraxylene) - **Price - related Charts**: Include PX产业链价格 (PX industrial chain price), PX浮动价 (PX floating price), PX月差 (PX monthly spread), PX基差 (PX basis), PX价格结构 (PX price structure), PX - BLENT价差 (PX - BLEND spread), 亚洲PXN价差 (Asian PXN spread), 韩国PX - MX价差 (Korean PX - MX spread) [11][17][19][21] - **Supply - related Charts**: PX月均开工率 (PX monthly average operating rate), PX进口量 (PX import volume), PX社会库存 (PX social inventory), PX平衡表 (PX balance sheet) [31][34][38] 2. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Price - related Charts**: PTA现货价格 (PTA spot price), PTA01合约现货基差 (PTA01 contract spot basis), PTA15月差 (PTA15 monthly spread), PTA - PX价差 (PTA - PX spread) [42] - **Supply - demand Charts**: PTA月均开工率 (PTA monthly average operating rate), PTA社会库存 (PTA social inventory), PTA出口量 (PTA export volume), PTA码头库存 (PTA terminal inventory), PTA平衡表 (PTA balance sheet) [43][45][49][50] - **PTA Balance Sheet Data**: From January to December 2025, data on PTA产能 (capacity), 产量 (output), 开工率 (operating rate), 进口量 (import volume), 出口量 (export volume), 净进口 (net import), 总供应 (total supply), 聚酯产能 (polyester capacity), 聚酯产量 (polyester output), PTA理论消费量 (theoretical PTA consumption), 其他领域消费量 (consumption in other fields), PTA总需求量 (total PTA demand), 库存增减 (inventory change) are provided [51] 3. MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - **Price - related Charts**: MEG华东现货价格 (MEG East China spot price), MEG01合约现货基差 (MEG01 contract spot basis), MEG15月差 (MEG15 monthly spread), MEG乙烯单体制利润 (MEG ethylene monomer production profit), MEG合成气制利润 (MEG syngas production profit) [56] - **Supply - demand Charts**: MEG中国装置月均开工 (MEG monthly average operating rate of Chinese plants), MEG进口量 (MEG import volume), MEG主港库存 (MEG main port inventory), MEG平衡表 (MEG balance sheet) [56][61][62] - **MEG Balance Sheet Data**: From January to December 2025, data on MEG产能 (capacity), 产量 (output), 进口量 (import volume), 净进口 (net import), 表需 (apparent demand), 聚酯产能 (polyester capacity), 聚酯产量 (polyester output), 折合MEG消费量 (equivalent MEG consumption), 其他领域消费量 (consumption in other fields), MEG库存变化 (MEG inventory change) are provided [62] 4. Polyester Products - **General Polyester**: Polyester月均开工率 (polyester monthly average operating rate), 聚酯加权利润 (weighted polyester profit) [67] - **Filament**: 长丝开工率 (filament operating rate), 长丝平均利润 (average filament profit), 长丝库存天数 (filament inventory days) [65][71] - **Staple Fiber**: 短纤工厂开工率 (staple fiber factory operating rate), 短纤工厂利润 (staple fiber factory profit), 短纤库存天数 (staple fiber inventory days) [68][71] - **Pure Polyester Yarn**: 纯涤纱开工 (pure polyester yarn operating rate), 纯涤纱成品库存 (pure polyester yarn finished product inventory) [72] - **Bottle Chip**: 瓶片开工率 (bottle chip operating rate), 瓶片现货加工费 (bottle chip spot processing fee) [76][81] 5. Downstream Industries - **Weaving and Dyeing**: 江浙织机开工率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate), 江浙加弹开工率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate), 江浙印染开机率 (Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operating rate) [77][81][82] 6. Raw Material Inventory - **PTA Raw Material Inventory**: 聚酯工厂PTA原料库存 (PTA raw material inventory in polyester factories) [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and cautiously bearish in the medium term [5] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand of the polyester industry chain has improved, leading to a rebound in the market. However, there are still various factors affecting the industry, including cost - side fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances in different segments, and uncertain future demand [1][2][3][4][5] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract price, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][16] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - This section includes PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Presents the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][46] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][61] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventory, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [73][79][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is favorable due to strong polyester filament sales, enhanced cost support, and high expectations of PTA device maintenance under low processing fees, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the PTA market is under pressure as domestic PTA devices return, PTA production increases, the PTA basis declines rapidly, and OPEC+ raises oil production, causing a significant drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha [2]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures rebounded slightly, and the spot market price strengthened slightly, but the basis negotiation continued to weaken. The overall inventory of MEG continued to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. However, the MEG price is under continuous pressure due to domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based MEG devices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price rose from 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, to 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, an increase of 8.3 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value decreased from 1121.1 yuan/ton to 1112.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.32 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3199 to 1.3121, a decrease of 0.0077 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price rose from 812 to 817, an increase of 5; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 215 to 211, a decrease of 4 [2]. - **PTA**: The主力 futures price rose from 4626 yuan/ton to 4678 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the spot price rose from 4525 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot processing fee increased from 202.8 yuan/ton to 213.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.6 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 268.8 yuan/ton to 291.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.6 yuan; the basis remained unchanged at (73); the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 32714 [2]. - **MEG**: The主力 futures price rose from 4234 yuan/ton to 4246 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (133.86) yuan/ton to (131.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price rose from 4301 to 4315, an increase of 14 yuan; the basis increased from 68 to 70, an increase of 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.57% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate decreased from 79.38% to 78.12%, a decrease of 1.26% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 62.62% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load decreased from 89.00% to 87.81%, a decrease of 1.19% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F decreased from 6600 to 6530, a decrease of 70 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 40 to (86), a decrease of 126 yuan; the price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6745 to 6720, a decrease of 25 yuan; the cash flow decreased from (315) to (396), a decrease of 81 yuan; the price of DTY150D/48F decreased from 7855 to 7840, a decrease of 15 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 95 to 24, a decrease of 71 yuan; the sales rate increased from 80% to 175%, an increase of 95% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6460 to 6500, an increase of 40 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 250 to 234, a decrease of 16 yuan; the sales rate increased from 67% to 88%, an increase of 21% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5690 to 5725, an increase of 35 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 30 to 9, a decrease of 21 yuan; the sales rate increased from 143% to 152%, an increase of 9% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA devices in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].