金融研究 2026年1月29日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：1 月 28 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.27%，报收 4151.24 点；深成 指上涨 0.09%，报收 14342.89 点；创业板指下跌 0.57%，报收 3323.56 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.08%， 报收 1554.8 点。市场成交 29,923 亿元，较前日增加 708 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+5.92%)， 石油石化(+3.54%)，煤炭(+3.42%)涨幅居前；综合(-2.53%)，传媒(-1.77%)，国防军工(-1.68%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IF>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,736/97/3,637。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-119、-156、56、219 亿元，分别变动+55、+84、+43、-182 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 21.99、-20.84、-14.81 与-9.24 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-2.05%、1.89%、2.45%与 2.36%，三年期历史分位数 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 24680 | 24645 | 24805 | 24565 | 115 | 0.47 | 28502 | 203 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | 24715 | 24725 | 24880 | 24635 | 160 | 0.65 | 121627 | 1452 | | 沪锌 | 2604 | 24740 | 24795 | 24930 | 24690 | 175 | 0.71 | 59031 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future market will be more affected by geopolitical situations. Pay attention to the Fed's decision early on Thursday. In the short - term, due to the combination of news and capital sentiment, the market will maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend. For gold, take profit on long positions when the price is high, and for single - side trading, buy at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options instead of going long [1]. - For silver, the rising raw material cost may accelerate the replacement of silver with other metals by enterprises, suppressing industrial demand. However, new demand in fields such as AI is expected to support the bullish view on silver prices. Regulatory restrictions have cooled speculative sentiment, and ETF holdings have continued to decline. But due to capital fluctuations, silver prices may still experience sharp intraday declines and fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to risk - control measures of exchanges and maintain the idea of going long on dips [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by their macro - financial attributes and the tight supply pattern, their prices are linked to the rise of gold, and the price center continues to rise. However, the easing of the supply shortage in the London spot market may limit the upside space. The supply - demand factors boost the futures of palladium, with an expected high - opening and then a decline. It is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 1186.20 yuan/gram, up 37.82 yuan or 3.29% from January 27 [1]. - AG2604 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 29219 yuan/kilogram, up 3.25% from January 27 [1]. - PT2606 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 694.80, down 10.90 or - 1.54% from January 27 [1]. - PD2606 contract: The closing price on January 28 was 504.00 yuan/gram, down 19.00 or - 3.63% from January 27 [1]. 3.2 Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 5411.00, up 231.40 or 4.47% from January 27 [1]. - COMEX silver主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 116.62, up 4.28 or 3.81% from January 27 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 2705.10 dollars/ounce, up 60.00 or 2.27% from January 27 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力合约: The closing price on January 28 was 2095.50, up 145.00 or 7.43% from January 27 [1]. 3.3 Spot Prices - London gold: The current price was 5413.81, up 233.58 or 4.51% from the previous value [1]. - London silver: The current price was 116.61 dollars/ounce, up 4.70 or 4.20% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum: The current price was 2407.00, down 243.00 or - 9.17% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium: The current price was 2014.00, up 34.00 or 1.72% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D: The current price was 1184.04 yuan/gram, up 41.15 or 3.60% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D: The current price was 29310 yuan/kilogram, up 578 or 2.01% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995: The current price was 670 yuan/gram, down 15 or - 2.22% from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract: The current value was - 2.16, up 3.33 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract: The current value was 91, down 341 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold: The current value was 5.08, up 6.87 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 99.60% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver: The current value was - 0.02, down 0.10 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 69.00% [1]. 3.5 Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver: The current value was 46.40, up 0.29 or 0.64% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver: The current value was 40.60, up 0.02 or 0.04% from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX palladium/platinum: The current value was 1.29, down 0.07 or - 4.81% from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium: The current value was 1.38, up 0.03 or 2.17% from the previous value [1]. 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 4.26%, up 0.02 or 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield: The current value was 3.56%, up 0.03 or 0.8% from the previous day [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: The current value was 1.90%, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - US dollar index: The current value was 96.35, up 0.58 or 0.61% from the previous day [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate: The current value was 6.9434, up 0.0098 or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. 3.7 Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory: The current value was 103029, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory: The current value was 208368, down 35876 or - 6.59% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory: The current value was 35877200, down 64302 or - 0.18% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory: The current value was 411684635, down 3461662 or - 0.83% from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warrants: The current value was 18833072, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warrants: The current value was 107674552, down 4734690 or - 4.21% from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position: The current value was 1090, up 2.58 or 0.24% from the previous value [1]. - SLV silver ETF position: The current value was 15636, down 211.43 or - 1.33% from the previous value [1].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：010-56711796 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 1130.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.46%报 5411.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.06%报 116.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 3.36%报 1196.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 1.46%报 28885 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 1 月 28 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.58 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1089.96 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 211.42 吨，当前持仓量为 15636.12 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 13.5%，维持利 | | | | | 率不变的概率为 86.5%。美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 24.1%，维持利 | | ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 海通空头加仓近 4000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 海通多头加仓超 2000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓保持平稳 | 华泰空头加仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信空头减仓超 4000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 7,628.0 1,717.0 -5,924.0 -11,585.0 15,622.0 3,905.0 -904.0 -15,637.0 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 IF IH IC ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 28, 2026 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 4151.24, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14342.89, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.57% to 3323.56. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2992.6 billion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4717.99, up 12.30 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1686.5, down 2.0 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1142.6 yuan, up 6.1 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated upward. The price of Brazilian sugar was affected by dry weather, and the spot price limited its upside. At night, it continued to rise due to short - covering [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the expected decrease in spot supply and rising crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher. At night, it oscillated and closed slightly higher due to technical factors [4]. - Palm Oil: The futures contract P2605 closed at 9270, up 0.35%. From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month [6]. - Asphalt: The 2603 contract closed at 3410 yuan, up 3.96%. Refinery supply was low, inventory was slightly accumulated, and prices oscillated due to cost support [8]. 2.2 Agricultural Futures - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.68% to 1074.75 cents per bushel. The domestic M2505 contract rose 0.58% to 2782 yuan/ton. Brazilian harvest pressure and US dollar weakness co - existed. Domestic inventory decreased, and post - holiday supply was expected to be loose [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2603 contract closed at 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Supply pressure increased, and demand support was limited [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14875 yuan/ton at night, and inventory increased by 4 lots [6]. 2.3 Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2603 contract closed at 103060 yuan/ton. It first declined and then rebounded. Volume and open interest decreased. Inventory accumulated, and demand was weak [6]. - Iron Ore: The 2605 contract closed at 783 yuan, down 0.7%. Port inventory increased, and prices oscillated due to pre - holiday restocking demand [8]. - Steel: The rb2605 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3280 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, costs had some support, and prices were expected to adjust narrowly [8]. - Alumina: The ao2605 contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton. The oversupply situation was hard to change in the short term, and prices were expected to oscillate [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 contract closed at 25640 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, inventory increased slightly, and demand pressure increased [8]. 2.4 Log Futures - Logs: The 2603 contract closed at 775.5. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was stable. Attention should be paid to spot support [6][8]. 3. Market Analysis - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke production was at a low level due to losses, and demand was rigid. Coking coal supply was loose both domestically and abroad, and demand was weak [4]. - Soybean Meal: International market was affected by Brazilian harvest and US dollar. Domestic market had pre - holiday demand and post - holiday supply concerns [6]. - Live Hogs: Supply pressure was high in the medium term, and demand increase during the Spring Festival was limited [6]. - Iron Ore: Port inventory was rising, and prices were oscillating due to pre - holiday restocking [8]. - Steel: Weak demand and high costs led to narrow price adjustments [8]. - Alumina: Oversupply and cost decline limited price increases [8]. - Shanghai Aluminum: Supply was stable, and demand pressure was gradually emerging [8].

2026年01月29日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属夜盘走强，伦敦金逼近 5500 美元/盎司，伦敦银逼近 120 美元/盎司。 基本面：美联储如期暂停降息，暗示不急行动，但美联储主席人选沃勒支持再降 25 基点；鲍威尔表示加息并 非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，关税通胀预计今年年中消退；贝森特称美国一贯奉行强美元政策，"绝对 不会"干预汇市支撑日元；日本周三拍卖的 40 年期国债投标倍数达到 2.76 倍，创下自去年 3 月以来的最高 水平，拍卖结果公布后 40 年期国债收益率下跌 2 个基点至 3.915%。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，-2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨， 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12803 吨，-107.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 508 吨，-35.9 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15636 吨，-211 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库 ...

王美丹认为，当前周度库存延续去化状态，且下游库存开始累积，一定程度上反映出下游偏积极的备货 态度，后续需重点跟踪下游对高价货源的整体接受度。 "当前全行业库存水平偏低，结构上表现为锂盐厂与下游产业库存较低，期现商库存较高。"余烁解释 称，在需求强劲的背景下，碳酸锂价格回调往往会触发补库需求，从而对现货价格形成支撑。不过，受 系统性风险与宏观面影响，当前市场情绪明显降温，碳酸锂价格上行乏力，在新的驱动因素出现之前， 预计价格将高位震荡。 值得注意的是，针对部分品种价格近期波动较大的情况，1月26日广期所发布风险提示称，期货公司应 切实履行风险管理职责，强化客户交易行为合规监管和风险防范，提醒投资者依规、谨慎、理性参与交 易，确保市场平稳运行。 同时，广期所将坚持严监严管主基调，持续强化市场监管，严肃查处各类违规行为，加强实际控制关系 账户调查、认定，发挥五位一体监管协作合力，依法严厉打击市场操纵行为，维护市场秩序。 近期，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落。1月28日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收报166280元/吨，下跌3.9%。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格冲高回落，是此前各类利多消息逐步消化，市场回归基本面交易的表 现。 " ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Futures Index Spread - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various futures index spreads, including price spreads and cross - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - It shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals Spot and Futures - The market for precious metals is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. For gold, it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and use call options instead of long positions. For silver, although there are factors suppressing and supporting the price, it is suggested to maintain a light - position long - buying strategy on dips. For platinum and palladium, the price center continues to rise, but the upward space may be limited, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [3]. 2.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot and Futures - The settlement price indices of container shipping routes have declined, while the futures prices of container shipping contracts have generally increased. The supply of container shipping capacity has slightly increased, and some foreign trade - related indicators and overseas economic indicators have shown certain changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Index Spread - **Price Spreads**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM price spreads are 14.81, 94.30, 20.84, and - 21.99 respectively, with high historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of different contracts show various changes and historical quantiles, such as the cross - period spread between the next month and the current month of IF being 5.00, with a historical quantile of 98.30% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: The cross - variety ratios of different futures varieties also have corresponding latest values, changes, and historical quantiles, like the IC/IF ratio being 0.0101, with a historical quantile of 99.10% [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL on January 28, 2026, are 1.3579, 1.1624, 1.0471, and 0.8136 respectively, with different historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - period Spreads**: The cross - period spreads of different contracts of TF, T, and TL show various values and changes, for example, the cross - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of TF is - 0.0450, with a historical quantile of 21.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., also have corresponding values and changes [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot and Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: On January 28, 2026, the closing prices of AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts are 1186.20, 29219, 694.80, and 504.00 respectively, with different price changes and price change rates [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices of COMEX gold, COMEX silver, NYMEX platinum, and NYMEX palladium on January 28, 2026, are 5411.00, 116.62, 2705.10, and 2095.50 respectively, with corresponding price changes and price change rates [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of London gold, London silver, etc., also have price changes and price change rates, for example, the spot price of London gold on January 28, 2026, is 5413.81, with a price change of 233.58 and a price change rate of 4.51% [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different precious metals shows different values and historical quantiles, such as the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract being - 2.16, with a historical quantile of 46.10% [3]. - **Ratios**: The ratios of different precious metals, such as COMEX gold/silver, have corresponding values and changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, 2 - year US Treasury bond yield, etc., have different values and changes [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventories and positions of different precious metals, such as the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver, have corresponding changes [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot and Futures - **Container Shipping Indices**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) on January 26, 2026, are 1859.31 and 1294.32 respectively, with price decreases and price change rates of - 4.86% and - 0.84% respectively [4]. - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI comprehensive index and the freight rates of different routes have declined, for example, the SCFI comprehensive index on January 23, 2026, is 1457.86, with a price decrease of - 116.3 and a price change rate of - 7.39% [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of different container shipping contracts have generally increased, and the basis of the main contract has decreased, for example, the price of EC2604 (main contract) on January 28, 2026, is 1229.0, with a price increase of 35.1 and a price change rate of 2.94%, and the basis of the main contract is 630.3, with a price decrease of - 35.1 and a price change rate of - 5.27% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply has slightly increased, and some foreign trade - related indicators and overseas economic indicators have shown certain changes, such as the port on - time rate in Shanghai increasing by 4.53% [4].