行，价格走平，但铝合金行业开工情况稳定，但需求表现较为一般，对工业硅拉动有限。整体而言，三大 免责声明 下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现持平。当前行业库存仍处于高位，尽管标准仓单数量有所减少，但库存 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8640 | 0 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 176563 | 2165 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -49386 | 2189 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50774 | -209 | | | 12月合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | -385 | 5 11-12月合约工业硅 | -385 | 5 | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9450 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 810 ...

Domestic Macro - The domestic macroeconomic landscape shows distinct characteristics in consumption and industrial policy, with a shift towards rational travel decisions during the National Day holiday, as overall travel intensity was lower than during the May Day holiday [1][6] - The tourism market is evolving towards diversification and personalization, with traditional attractions losing some popularity while niche tourism options like "inter-provincial border tours" and "border tourism" are gaining traction [1][6] - The expansion of visa-free travel has stimulated outbound tourism, reflecting the release of domestic residents' international travel demand and the positive effects of national tourism opening policies [1][6] Foreign Macro - During the National Day holiday, the U.S. ADP employment and services PMI data were weaker than expected, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [1][13] - The U.S. services PMI fell to 50, indicating a slowdown in business activity and new orders, which may impact global market sentiment [1][13] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and demand for risk hedging against the dollar [2][17] - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of continued market easing following the initial interest rate cuts [2][17] Oil Market - International oil prices fluctuated during the holiday, ultimately stabilizing around pre-holiday levels, influenced by ongoing supply increases and insufficient demand [2][18] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day, reflecting a focus on maintaining market share amid competitive pressures [2][18] Film Industry - The National Day box office exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, with several films surpassing 100 million yuan in ticket sales, indicating a strong recovery in cultural consumption [8] - The diversity of content, including various genres, has driven demand, with family-oriented films performing particularly well [8] Industrial Policy - The release of growth stabilization plans by seven major industries before the holiday marks a significant shift towards quality and efficiency improvement rather than mere scale expansion [11] - The focus on supply-demand balance and the integration of artificial intelligence aligns with current technological trends, promoting high-end and intelligent industrial development [11] Overall Economic Outlook - The current domestic macroeconomic environment is characterized by structural optimization and diversified demand in consumption, alongside a commitment to high-quality development in industrial policy, which together create a favorable environment for economic growth [12][12] Key Commodity Trends - LME copper prices rose by 2.85% during the holiday, driven by supply concerns from Indonesia and ongoing tightness in the copper market [19] - LME zinc prices increased by 3.7%, supported by declining inventories and stable processing fees [19] - LME aluminum prices continued to rise, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance and positive macro sentiment [20] Agricultural Products - U.S. cotton prices weakened during the holiday due to market information delays caused by the government shutdown, while domestic cotton prices face pressure from new crop expectations [21] - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory levels [22] Shipping Industry - During the National Day holiday, shipping rates increased significantly, with major shipping lines raising prices for the second half of October [48] - The market is expected to enter a phase of competition for the year-end peak season, with attention on the impact of shipping rate adjustments [48]

Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View Short - term fundamental contradictions of natural rubber are not prominent, and it is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Future attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina on supply [1]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 250 yuan/ton (-1.72%), the Thai standard mixed rubber quotation decreased by 50 yuan/ton (-0.34%), and the non - standard price difference increased by 205 (56.19%) [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 75 (214.29%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 45 (-100.00%), and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30 (-300.00%) [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased by 2.00 (-0.43%), Indonesia's decreased by 8.50 (-4.30%), India's increased by 5.00 (11.11%), and China's increased by 12.20. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58 (-0.08), and that of all - steel tires was 65.72 (0.06). The domestic tire production in August increased by 859.00 (9.10%), the tire export quantity decreased by 364.00 (-5.46%), and the total import quantity of natural rubber increased by 4.60 (9.68%) [1]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 (-1.01%), and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 908 (-2.11%) [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry does not have a continuous negative feedback drive for the time being, and over - bearish views are not recommended. In the fourth quarter, the actual implementation of policies in each region and the inventory preparation of downstream industries should be tracked [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, glass 2505 decreased by 20 (-1.49%), glass 2509 decreased by 20 (-1.41%), and the 05 basis increased by 20 (15.87%) [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: From September 29th to September 30th, soda ash 2505 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), soda ash 2509 decreased by 17.0 (-1.24%), and the 05 basis increased by 17.0 (25.76%) [4]. - **Supply Volume**: From September 19th to September 26th, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.02%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 1.5 (-2.02%), the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.1 (-0.47%), and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: From September 19th to September 26th, the glass factory inventory decreased by 67.5 (-1.10%), the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.2 (-2.33%), and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 5.9 (10.69%) [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, the basis of SI4210 decreased by 30 (-3.57%), and the basis of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 30 (-2.63%) [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 40 (400.00%), the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 10 (2.50%), and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (9.09%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 (9.10%), the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 3.36 (19.78%), the Yunnan industrial silicon production increased by 0.14 (2.41%), and the Sichuan industrial silicon production decreased by 0.08 (-1.49%). The national operating rate increased by 6.07 (10.86%), the Xinjiang operating rate increased by 8.02 (15.25%), the Yunnan operating rate increased by 14.50 (44.09%), and the Sichuan operating rate increased by 7.33 (19.83%) [5]. - **Inventory Change**: From September 29th to September 30th, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory decreased by 1.40 (-11.63%), the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.09 (2.91%), and the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.07 (3.06%) [5]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. Core View After the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range. Given the support of the spot price, the fluctuation range may be between 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the specific schedule and implementation details of the industry's state - reserve policy, the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises in October, as well as the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic module factories [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Spot Price and Basis**: From September 29th to September 30th, the average price of N - type re - fed material remained unchanged, the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 80.00 (-6.30%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract increased by 80 (0.16%), the spread between the current month and the first - continuous decreased by 205 (-91.11%), and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous decreased by 60 (-2.40%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production decreased by 0.14 (-1.01%), and the polysilicon production increased by 0.01 (0.32%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 (-1.29%), the polysilicon import volume increased by 0.01 (5.11%), and the polysilicon export volume decreased by 0.01 (-3.92%) [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.20 (10.78%), the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 0.64 (-3.79%), and the polysilicon contract increased by 140.00 (1.76%) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the National Day holiday, the actual demand for steel continued to be weak, but with the macro - environment turning more accommodative, market expectations for the recovery of steel demand are rising. In the short term, the pattern of weak reality is hard to reverse, and as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market may enter a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" again. Steel prices still face some downward risks from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the dynamics related to the Fourth Plenary Session need to be closely monitored [2]. - For the black sector, in the current demand and supply environment, prices may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market, and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the current profit rate of steel mills is better than in 2023, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions in the future, and it may be better to look for long - entry opportunities after price corrections around mid - October [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - On September 30, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3072 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.80%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 285,846 tons, a daily increase of 15,608 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.873832 million lots, a daily decrease of 52,807 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, with no daily change. The main contract's open interest was 1.349868 million lots, a daily decrease of 34,602 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday, steel demand was significantly weaker than last year. For rebar, terminal demand hit a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio rose significantly. For hot - rolled coils, production decreased slightly, but apparent demand declined more significantly, and inventory increased notably. The post - holiday demand recovery needs to be monitored [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - On September 30, the iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 780.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 3.50), and the open interest changed by - 26,627 lots to 447,400 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 746,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.43 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.73%. During the National Day holiday, the TSI iron ore continuous contract closed at 104.15 US dollars/ton, up 1.46% from before the holiday [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - During the holiday, steel mill production remained stable, and overseas ore shipments were on a steady pace. In terms of supply, the end - of - third - quarter shipment rush by mines ended, and the latest overseas iron ore shipments remained high but decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output announced before the holiday was 2.4181 million tons, a decrease of 0.055 million tons month - on - month. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, iron ore prices may adjust downward [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 30, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.07% at 5758 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 2.07% at 5494 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 206 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by short - term realistic demand, the black sector has a downward correction risk, especially around the National Day holiday. The high pig iron output above 2.4 million tons puts pressure on prices. The price trend may be similar to that around the National Day holiday in 2023, first falling and then rising with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but if the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances in the manganese ore segment. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - On September 30, the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8640 yuan/ton, up 0.35% (+ 30). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 42,731 lots to 399,733 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 660 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 260 yuan/ton [11]. - The polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 51,360 yuan/ton, up 0.16% (+ 80). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 2957 lots to 226,349 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of 1190 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand have not changed significantly. Although there is an expectation of production cuts during the dry season, the start - up rate of large northwest plants has not yet peaked, and downstream demand has limited upward space. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may be reduced, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. For polysilicon, the current market lacks upward drivers, and there is a risk of short - term price decline. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises and policy changes [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On the Tuesday before the holiday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (- 18). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1230 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, down 1.553 million cases (- 2.55%) [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1255 yuan/ton, down 1.80% (- 23). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, down 23 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons (- 2.55%), including 0.9224 million tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, down 0.0837 million tons, and 0.7291 million tons of light - soda ash inventory, down 0.0204 million tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass futures market showed a wide - range shock pattern before the holiday. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream procurement was cautious. Supply was relatively abundant, and inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and take a slightly bullish view in the short term. The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was flat. The market is expected to continue the shock - consolidation pattern in the short term [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory exceeding 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and the strategy of buying on dips has a higher probability of success, but chasing high prices requires caution [4]. - In September, the progress of the platform company for polysilicon fell short of expectations, causing the market to decline. However, it may be too early to say it has failed. In October, there may still be a game around it. In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities. The digestion of warehouse receipts may limit the reverse arbitrage space [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - As of September 30, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 285 yuan/ton to 8,640 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 1,100 yuan/ton to 51,360 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Big Factory Restart, Polysilicon Focus on Platform Company Progress Industrial Silicon - As of the end of September, Xinjiang added 9 furnaces (7 by big factories), Sichuan reduced 5, and Yunnan reduced 1. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 furnaces and Sichuan's to about 35. Xinjiang big factories may have plans to open more furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory remained flat, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 12,400 tons. Before the National Day, downstream enterprises stocked up based on rigid demand. If Xinjiang big factories' eastern base opens 50 furnaces, there may be an inventory accumulation of about 40,000 tons from September - October and a depletion of about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November - December. If it opens to 60 furnaces, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a slight depletion in December [2][12]. Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon remained flat. Some devices were shut down for maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate was 71.2%, with a weekly output of 47,100 tons (down 3.09% month - on - month) and inventory of 44,500 tons (down 2.84% month - on - month). It is expected that the price will oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - This week, the polysilicon futures main contract oscillated. The quoted price increase amplitude began to converge. The actual transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and granular material was about 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not implemented, and the production schedule in October increased to about 134,000 tons. As of September 25, the polysilicon enterprise factory inventory was 226,000 tons (up 22,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (up 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' level. Although the production limit was not implemented, the sales limit was still in effect. The spot price may remain flat [3][13]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the silicon wafer price remained stable. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 silicon wafers were stable at 1.35/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule in October was 55.68GW (down 3.4GW month - on - month). As of September 25, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.23GW (down 0.64GW month - on - month). The inventory was in a reasonable range, and the price is expected to remain stable [14]. Battery Cell - This week, the battery cell transaction price increased. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were raised. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 3.04GW (down 5.07GW month - on - month). The domestic production schedule in October was 58.65GW (down 1.5GW month - on - month). Overseas demand supported the price increase of M10, while the prices of G12R/G12 may remain stable [14]. Component - This week, the component price was basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.63 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.69 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (down 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule in October was 45.66GW (down 2.1GW month - on - month). The component price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [15]. 3.3 Investment Advice Industrial Silicon - The strategy of buying on dips for industrial silicon has a higher probability of success, but chasing high prices requires caution [4]. Polysilicon - In the short - term, the market is expected to oscillate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities. The digestion of warehouse receipts may limit the reverse arbitrage space [4]. 3.4 Hot News - GCL Technology revised the subscription agreement for issuing new shares. The company plans to use the proceeds for polysilicon capacity structural adjustment, R & D and production capacity enhancement of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, general funds, and loan repayment [18]. - The completion environmental protection acceptance content of the polysilicon device reconstruction and expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a public notice period from September 8 to October 11, 2025 [18]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides a series of high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafer, battery cell, and component, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [19 - 59].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to weakened cost support and mixed supply-demand dynamics, with prices falling below 9000 yuan/ton [1][2][4]. Supply Side Analysis - The main contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the continuous increase in supply against weak demand expectations. The southwestern region is expected to reduce production due to the upcoming dry season, while the northwestern region anticipates increased production [2][3]. - From January to August this year, the total industrial silicon output in China reached 2.6 million tons, with Xinjiang contributing 1.37 million tons (53%) and the southwestern region contributing 370,000 tons (14%) [2]. - The southwestern region's production is expected to decrease as smelting electricity prices are set to rise after the wet season ends, while the northwestern region's production may increase due to stable coal electricity prices [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Currently, industrial silicon demand is stable during the traditional peak season, but uncertainties arise from the polysilicon market, which may see new capacity ramp-up and some production cuts [3]. - If the polysilicon industry implements "production limits and sales control" measures effectively, industrial silicon demand could significantly decline [3]. - Domestic demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloys is showing marginal improvement, with notable export performance in aluminum alloys. In August, China's industrial silicon exports reached 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.56% and a year-on-year increase of 18.30% [3]. Inventory and Market Outlook - Industrial silicon inventory has shown a slight increase, with current spot inventory at 445,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [3]. - The overall market is expected to remain weak, with continuous production increases from major manufacturers potentially leading to supply growth, while polysilicon's limited production expectations may weaken industrial silicon demand [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply glut of industrial silicon has not improved yet. Although there is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, the supply in the northwest region is stable. The downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries is generally flat, and the industry inventory remains high. Industrial silicon is expected to have no significant changes overall. It is recommended to buy at low prices and observe the production reduction intensity during the dry season after the holiday [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,640 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 206,977 lots, down 34,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -51,575 lots, up 9,359 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 50,983 lots, up 781 lots; the closing price of the December contract is -400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the difference between the November and December contracts is -400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygenated 553 silicon is 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 810 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex-factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.59%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4,154.82 tons [2] Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese photovoltaic enterprise, announced that it will supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, marking a continuous breakthrough of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises in the Latin American market with the strategy of "global production + local service" [2] Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon has been fluctuating upward this week. There is a production reduction expectation in the southwest region, while the supply in the northwest region is stable. On the demand side, the downstream industries of industrial silicon, including organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, have a flat overall demand for industrial silicon. The industry inventory remains high, and the digestion of inventory still faces certain pressure [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With low valuation, there may be room for the price to rise if relevant policies are introduced [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure and weak short - term trading. The market is influenced by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The main contract 2511 opened at 8850 yuan/ton and closed at 8610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 390 yuan/ton (-4.33%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract was 206,977 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,202 lots, an increase of 69 lots from the previous day [2]. - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 (-50) yuan/ton [2]. - On the consumption side, the price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Last week, some domestic monomer enterprises slightly increased their DMC quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and this week the price remained stable, supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, and long positions can be considered for dry - season contracts at low prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,950 yuan/ton and closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous trading day. The open interest was 93,768 lots (101,486 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 158,112 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased by 10.78% to 22.60, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.80% to 16.23GW. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,100.00 tons, a 0.30% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor price changes in some products [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment has cooled. Polysilicon faces high inventory pressure, and the production reduction in October may be less than expected. Downstream silicon wafer price increases also face resistance [5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].