黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-23 基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行 钢材：基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3124元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3287元/吨。现货方面，周三杭州螺纹库存47.2万吨， 螺纹出库3.9万吨，农历同比去年库存42.3万吨,去年出库4.3万吨。全国建材成交71531万吨。 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：成交有所回升，矿价震荡运行 供需与逻辑：建材基本面承压，需求走弱，淡季钢价震荡运行。板材基本面矛盾有限，高库存始终压制价格边际 弹性。短期市场情绪较弱，价格底部不排除投机需求发生，关注减产情况及冬储情况，需求去库变化、利润状况、 成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石价格震荡运行。现货方面，22日全国主港铁矿累计成交91.3万吨，环比上涨12.44%；本周 平均每日成交102.1万吨，环比上涨3.76%；本月平均每日成交95.8万吨，环比下跌6.54%。远期现货方面，远期现 货累计成交10.5万吨（2笔），环比下跌94. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Spot demand weakens seasonally, focus on basis opportunities. Steel prices are expected to have support at low levels, and hot-rolled coil futures-spot positive arbitrage can be rolled. Trade with a unilateral range-bound mindset, or use option strategies to assist spot trading [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Prices rebound with market sentiment. Supply is high and demand is weak. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the risk of a decline is high. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][4][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: The sector fluctuates. Spot prices are weak, and the market trades for a reasonable valuation. Wait for a rally to short on the futures market, and cash in on the spot market when appropriate [5][7] - Iron Ore: Prices are mainly volatile. The accident at the steel mill may affect iron ore demand, and there is pressure on the upside. Wait for a rebound to enter short positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 22, for far-month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.25%); HC2610 closed at 3302.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan (0.15%); J2609 closed at 1758.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 10.00 yuan (0.57%); JM2609 closed at 1203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 9.00 yuan (0.75%). For near-month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3124.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.35%); HC2605 closed at 3287.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 8.00 yuan (0.24%); J2605 closed at 1688.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 14.00 yuan (0.84%); JM2605 closed at 1131.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (1.07%) [1] - **Inter-month Spreads**: On January 22, RB2605 - 2610 was -45.00 yuan/ton with no change; HC2605 - 2610 was -15.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 4.00 yuan; 12605 - 2609 was 17.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 0.50 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was -70.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was -71.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 2.50 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On January 22, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread was 163.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 6.00 yuan; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.97 with no change; the coal - coke ratio was 1.49 with no change; the rebar paper profit was -75.48 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.63 yuan; the coking paper profit was 183.11 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.18 yuan [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On January 22, Shanghai rebar was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tianjin rebar was 3140.00 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3420.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 103.45 with a gain of 0.25. Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3290.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3340.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 40.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot-rolled coil was 3260.00 yuan/ton with no change; the billet - steel product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with no change; Rizhao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Other Products**: On January 22, Qingdao Port Super Special Powder was 668.00 yuan/ton with no change; Ganqimaodu Coking Coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Class Coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port PB was 794.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 1.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: On January 22, the HC main contract basis was 3.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 39.00 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 136.00 yuan/ton with a loss of 7.00 yuan; the main contract basis was 20.00 yuan/ton with no change; the J main contract basis was -115.37 yuan/ton with a loss of 4.50 yuan; the JM main contract basis was 133.50 yuan/ton with a loss of 2.50 yuan [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly futures research report on rebar dated January 23, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Rebar supply has rebounded to a high level, while demand is weak, leading to a continuous weakening of the fundamentals. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season. The futures price has fallen near the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue a low - level oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [12] Group 4: Data Summary Supply - The weekly rebar output is 199.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons, and a month - to - date increase of 11.33 tons compared to the end of last month. The output is at a relatively high level, increasing the supply pressure [3] - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a month - to - date increase of 0.25 percentage points compared to the end of last month [3] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar is 185.52 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons and a month - to - date decrease of 14.92 tons compared to the end of last month. It is at a low level in recent years [3] - The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 7.78, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 and a month - to - date decrease of 1.84 compared to the end of last month. It is also at a low level in recent years [3] Inventory - The total rebar inventory is 452.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.03 tons and a month - to - date increase of 30.07 tons compared to the end of last month. The inventory inflection point has reappeared [3] - The in - factory inventory is 148.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.32 tons and a month - to - date increase of 9.61 tons compared to the end of last month [3] - The social inventory is 303.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71 tons and a month - to - date increase of 20.46 tons compared to the end of last month [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, energy and chemicals, and forest products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, the stock index futures show differentiation, and the rapid repair period of treasury bond futures may have ended; in the agricultural products sector, different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends [19][25][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index differentiation continues. On Thursday, the stock index was stable with a slight increase. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes remained strong, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indexes were under pressure. The trading strategies include short - term oscillation in IF/IH, upward oscillation in IM/IC, and corresponding arbitrage and option strategies [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The rapid repair period may have ended. On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. With the tax period affecting the market funds and the equity market's shock - strength, the upward momentum of bond futures has temporarily slowed down. It is recommended to try to go long on the TL contract at low prices [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply disturbances increase, and the market as a whole rises. The demand has slightly improved, and the South American weather affects the US soybean market. However, the overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the domestic soybean meal has short - term support but long - term pressure [26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuates at the bottom, and Zhengzhou sugar has strong support below. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, but the northern hemisphere's sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure, but the price decline space is limited [30]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The international oil and fat prices have fallen. The domestic soybean oil is gradually destocking, and the rapeseed supply is expected to increase. The Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to reduce production and destock, but the destocking speed is slow. The overall oil and fat market will continue to oscillate [33][34]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The northern port's spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at a high level. The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic corn has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has generally risen. However, the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure still exists [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 peanut contract is weak, but the market still oscillates at the bottom [43][44]. - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival stocking approaches, the egg price has risen. The spot price increase supports the futures market, but the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [46][48]. - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the apple price is firm. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts supports the price, and if the later demand is normal, the price of the 05 contract is likely to rise [51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sentiment is optimistic, and the cotton price is supported. The short - term driving force of cotton is limited, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals are strong, and the market is expected to maintain a strong trend [56]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand has weakened marginally, and the steel price continues to oscillate. The construction steel sales have declined, the steel inventory has increased, and the cost has support. The steel price is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market oscillates. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, the domestic coal mine production has recovered, and the downstream winter storage is limited. The market is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are volatile, and the ore price is weak. The global iron ore supply is abundant, and the domestic demand is expected to be low. The ore price is expected to be weak [65]. - **Ferroalloys**: After the adjustment, the bottom support is strong. The silicon iron and manganese silicon have stable demand and cost support, and it is recommended to hold long positions and add more at low prices [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical events have widened the trust gap, and gold and silver have reached new highs. The market risk - aversion sentiment has fluctuated, and the PCE data and asset allocation adjustment have promoted the rise of gold and silver. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [71][72]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US dollar index has weakened, and precious metals have strongly made up for the increase. The geopolitical factors and the change of the US dollar asset confidence have affected the market. Platinum has a stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Copper**: The bullish momentum has weakened, and the copper price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical risk has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the long - term supply of ore is tight. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [79]. - **Alumina**: The market mainly oscillates at a low level. The supply - demand is surplus, and the cost is expected to decline. It is recommended to protect the profit of the previous short positions [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price has stabilized in oscillation. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the short - term downstream replenishment sentiment exists. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and be strong in the medium term [85][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The risk preference has boosted the aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. The geopolitical concern has dissipated, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight, which supports the price [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The domestic zinc concentrate shortage has been alleviated, the refined zinc production has increased, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory change [92][93]. - **Lead**: There may be support below. The supply may improve, the consumption has weakened, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to try to go long lightly at low prices near the support level [97][98]. - **Nickel**: The optimistic sentiment still exists, and the nickel price is in a high - level consolidation. The geopolitical situation is tense, and the Indonesian production target has been adjusted. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [100][101]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply - demand is tight, and the price is firm. The supply of raw materials is short, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices [103][104]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction news has fermented, but the coking coal has dragged down the market. In the short term, the market is expected to be strong in oscillation. The demand is weak in the medium term, but if the production reduction of large factories is implemented, the price is expected to be strong [104]. - **Polysilicon**: The warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the market expectation has weakened. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the market is pessimistic about the future. It is recommended to participate cautiously [106][107]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The supply may be affected by policies and maintenance, and the demand is supported by "export rush" and pre - festival stocking. It is recommended to go long after the callback [109]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the macro sentiment. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the macro sentiment in the short term [112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate continues to decline, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. The spot freight rate is in the off - season decline, and the export tax rebate may delay the decline. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold the 6 - 10 positive spread [115][116][117]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and the EIA inventory has increased. The increase in inventory and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have pressured the oil price, but the supply threat and the cold wave support the price. The oil price is expected to oscillate widely [121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The low inventory and low production support the spot price. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the 03 contract and the BU4 - 6 positive spread [124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost is oscillating, and the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel is abundant. The fuel price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel is expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the FU59 positive spread [126][128]. - **LPG**: Propane still has support. The international LPG is tight, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate widely [130][131]. - **Natural Gas**: There are still concerns about European supply, and there is a short squeeze in the US HH market. The European market is affected by cold weather, low inventory, and geopolitical risks, and the US market is affected by cold weather and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions in TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell call options [132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The capital attention has increased. The PX supply is expected to be high, and the PTA is affected by cost and capital. The market is expected to oscillate widely [136][137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene has decreased due to unexpected shutdown of plants. The supply of pure benzene is expected to tighten, and the styrene supply has decreased. The styrene price is expected to be strong in the short term [139][140]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Saudi maintenance may reduce imports, and the market oscillates widely. The supply may decrease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate widely [144]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply is sufficient, and the terminal demand has weakened. The production load is expected to decrease, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to oscillate widely [146][147]. - **Bottle Chips**: The maintenance has accelerated in mid - January. The production capacity is expected to decrease, and the replenishment momentum may slow down. The market is expected to oscillate widely [149]. - **Propylene**: The load continues to decline. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the market has support. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The chemical sector has become stronger, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The domestic PE and PP production capacities have increased, and the market is supported by the chemical sector. It is recommended to hold long positions in L and PP [153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price has weakened. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak [159][160]. - **PVC**: The market has risen in resonance. The supply is expected to decrease, the cost is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in oscillation [161][162]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price has fallen. The supply is stable, the demand is good, and the price is expected to decline at a slower pace and oscillate [163][165]. - **Glass**: The futures price has fallen. The production is stable, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline at a slower pace and be weak in oscillation [166][167]. - **Methanol**: The market is running strongly. The international device start - up rate has declined, the domestic supply is loose, and the demand has support. It is recommended to go short in the short term and pay attention to the 59 positive spread [169]. - **Urea**: The market is oscillating. The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has limited impact, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in oscillation [172]. Forest Products - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely. The supply exceeds demand, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate more [174][175][176]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions and switch the spread strategy [177][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the cultural paper spot price has weak rebound. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short - sell in a small amount [180][181]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise. The tire production line start - up rate has increased, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market. It is recommended to wait and see and buy call options [183][184]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The synthetic rubber has led the rise, and multiple contracts have reached the daily limit. The inventory has changed, and the tire production line start - up rate has increased. It is recommended to hold the spread and buy call options [187][188][189].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/23 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/16 | 3190 | 3320 | 3390 | 3280 | 3470 | 3370 | | 2026/01/19 | 3130 | 3280 | 3350 | 3260 | 3450 | 3360 | | 2026/01/20 | 3130 | 3270 | 3320 | 3240 | 3440 | 3340 | | 2026/01/21 | 3110 | 3260 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/22 | 3110 | 3260 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) presents unprecedented systemic challenges for Chinese steel enterprises, but it can also be transformed into a significant opportunity for promoting high-quality industrial development through proactive adaptation and transformation [1] Group 1: Challenges Faced by Steel Enterprises - The implementation of CBAM poses three main challenges for export enterprises: difficulty in carbon data accounting, unfamiliarity with compliance processes, and unclear emission reduction pathways [2] - The stringent monitoring, reporting, and verification requirements of the EU for carbon emissions data may lead to increased carbon costs if enterprises rely on high default values set by the EU [2] - Enterprises face risks such as fines and market access issues due to potential errors in the compliance process, which involves multiple steps including product classification and emissions calculation [2] Group 2: Recommendations for Steel Enterprises - Steel enterprises should prioritize low-carbon technology research and application as a core strategy, accelerating the implementation of advanced processes like hydrogen metallurgy to reduce carbon emissions [3] - Establishing a compliance system that aligns with EU standards for carbon measurement and reporting is essential, including promoting low-carbon product certifications and collaborating with third-party verification agencies [3] - Companies should optimize market strategies by deepening domestic market engagement and expanding into international markets, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Group 3: Policy and International Cooperation - China should enhance negotiations for mutual recognition of carbon markets with the EU, aiming for carbon quota recognition to reduce dual carbon costs for enterprises [4] - Active participation in global carbon pricing rule-making and international climate governance is necessary to advocate for a fair international trade environment [4] - The steel industry association should provide public services such as carbon accounting and compliance consulting to support small and medium-sized enterprises [4] Group 4: Technological Pathways - Structural adjustments and technological innovations, such as hydrogen metallurgy and carbon capture, utilization, and storage, are essential for achieving carbon neutrality in the steel industry [4] - Despite the high costs associated with hydrogen metallurgy, advancements in this technology position China at the forefront globally, with large-scale applications expected as green hydrogen costs decrease [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and re - discount rates has boosted market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the demand is affected by the off - season of the steel market, and the supply side shows a decline in global shipments and arrivals. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: This week's data shows that the production of threaded rods increased, the overall inventory increased, the apparent demand for threaded rods decreased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased while inventory increased. The production remained basically unchanged. The market is in the consumption off - season, with low production and demand and rising inventory [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rose and then fell, forming a short - term downward breakthrough, with a small rebound in the short term and strong resistance above [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions with a light position, and add positions at low prices when the futures price falls to the lower edge of the shock range. Conduct medium - term trading and avoid chasing up or selling down [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The overall production of the five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, the apparent demand decreased, and the inventory increased. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The improvement in steel's apparent demand may be due to the year - end rush to complete projects. The accident of a rolling mill under Baotou Steel Group may disrupt iron ore demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments continued to decline, and arrivals decreased. The rising port inventory suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After breaking through the recent shock range, the futures price rose strongly but has adjusted significantly in recent days, falling below the support of the 10 - day moving average and back to the upper edge of the previous shock range. It may have some support here, but the upward trend may end, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In mid - January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly, down 0.3% month - on - month, 1.7% lower than at the beginning of the year, and 5.2% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Fenix Resources, an Australian iron ore producer, increased its mining and shipping volume in Q4 2025 and raised its shipping target for fiscal year 2026 [6]. - As of the week of January 22, the production and factory inventory of threaded rods increased, the social inventory increased for the third consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased [6]. - South32's Australian manganese industry had a decrease in manganese ore production in Q4 2025 but an increase in sales. The annual output guidance for 2026 remains unchanged [7]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 66 yuan/ton this week [7]. - As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased, and the theoretical profit of soda ash decreased [7].

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 13 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 13 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：去库格局延续，偏强震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 | 19 | | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：市场情绪偏弱，短期价格弱调整 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 786. 5 | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | | 2.5 | 0. 32% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓 ...

| 宛 亦安期货 | | --- | 废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/23 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/16 | 2186 | 2265 | 2054 | 2252 | 2217 | 2105 | | 2026/01/19 | 2186 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/20 | 2185 | 2264 | 2054 | 2250 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/21 | 2185 | 2265 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 2026/01/22 | 2184 | 2266 | 2052 | 2248 | 2217 | 2109 | | 环比 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容 ...