| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600733 北汽蓝谷 | | 2.20亿 | 10.33% | -1.29 Z | -6.05% | -9095.48万 | -4.28% | | 601633 长城汽车 | | -320.82万 | -1.16% | 573.64万 | 2.07% | -252.82万 | -0.91% | | 601238 广汽集团 | | -494.64万 | -2.16% | 631.90万 | 2.76% | -137.26万 | -0.60% | | 000572 海马汽车 | | -2956.13万 | -4.66% | 1485.77万 | 2.34% | 1470.35万 | 2.32% | | 600104 上汽集团 | | -6710.12万 | -5.62% | 7433.64万 | 6.23% | -723.52万 | -0.61% | | 000625 ...

根据交强险，25年12月国内乘用车交强险销量(不含进口，下同)为227.8万辆，同比-16.4%，环比 +13.6%。乘用车25年累计销量为2305.2万辆，同比+0.6%。参考历史上正常年份/政策退坡年份12月环比 增速均值为+4.6/34.7%，12月需求表现显著弱于季节性规律，或主要系部分地区以旧换新补贴政策暂停 带来观望增加影响。 维持对26年乘用车国内需求"价升量稳"的判断 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，根据国家统计局，21/22/23/24/25乘用车ASP分别同比 +0.1/+3.1/-0.1/-8.3/-2.1%，2025年乘用车行业持续演绎"量稳价缓"逻辑。展望26年，定比例补贴将拉动 中高端车销量比例提升带来"价升"，25年Q4消费者观望导致透支大幅减少+以旧换新政策延续增换购需 求依然有弹性。库存方面，截至25年12月底乘用车行业动态库销比为2.48，12月行业动态库销比短期上 行，考虑后续以旧换新政策延续后的需求释放，短期库存风险不大。 广发证券主要观点如下： 25Q4乘用车交强险销量不再"翘尾"，25年全年同比+0.6%为26年"量稳"筑基 乘用车行业短期库存风险不大 根据 ...

Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Insights - The industry subsidy policy has been implemented, and there is optimism for a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, with a strong outlook for the passenger vehicle sector [3][27] - For the domestic market, focus on high-end electric vehicle companies that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, and those expected to see growth in high-end offerings like Geely, Great Wall, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [3][27] - For exports, prioritize leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, recommending BYD, Great Wall, Chery, as well as Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan [3][27] Group 2: Heavy Truck Insights - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with domestic sales of 799,000 units (+32.8%) and exports of 341,000 units (+17.2%), exceeding initial market expectations [4][32] - The estimated number of operational heavy trucks meeting National IV standards or below was 690,000 at the beginning of 2025, expected to be reduced to 450,000-500,000 by the end of the year, with a total of 210,000 units eliminated throughout 2025 [4][32] - For 2026, domestic heavy truck sales are projected to reach 800,000-850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with continued recommendations for leading companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [4][32] Group 3: Bus Insights - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with the continuation of subsidy levels rather than a reduction [4][32] - In 2025, bus sales were 29,000 units, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, indicating a gap from the reasonable replacement midpoint [4][32] - For 2026, a conservative estimate of 40,000 bus sales is projected, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the number of buses over eight years old awaiting replacement [4][32] Group 4: Motorcycle Insights - The motorcycle industry is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected at 1.26 million units (+31%) [5][29] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units (+5%) in 2026, while exports are anticipated to reach 830,000 units (+50%) [5][29] - The focus remains on leading companies benefiting from the sustained growth in large-displacement and export markets, recommending Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [5][29]

证券之星消息，1月26日乘用车板块较上一交易日下跌1.75%，北汽蓝谷领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4132.61，下跌0.09%。深证成指报收于14316.64，下跌0.85%。乘用车板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002594 | 比亚迪 | 92.63 | -1.09% | 37.55万 | 34.85 Z | | 000625 | 长安汽车 | 11.57 | -1.11% | 75.21万 | 8.72 Z | | 600104 | 上汽集团 | 14.61 | -1.42% | 111.64万 | 16.35 Z | | 601633 | 长城汽车 | 21.27 | -1.48% | 18.08万 | 3.86亿 | | 601238 | 广汽集团 | 8.18 | -2.04% | 41.03万 | 3.38亿 | | 601127 | 賽力斯 | 114.60 | -2.88% | 21.44万 | 24.72亿 | | 000572 | 出紧 ...

紧随其后的比亚迪，则以802.90分的成绩凸显了其在新能源时代的实力，其核心竞争力不仅体现为 310.5万辆的断层式销量领先，更得益于高达99.18%的正面舆情基础，使得规模化扩张与高美誉度形成 了强大的协同共振。 与此同时，特斯拉中国凭借其0.50%的显著主流媒体声量占比与独特的品牌溢价能力，以798.53分 稳居第三，而AITO问界与理想汽车等新势力代表，则分别以791.49分和776.64分的成绩，凭借超越93% 的网民声量占比和行业领先的满意度评分，成功构筑了以深度用户认同和社群粘性为核心的差异化护城 河，标志着头部阵营已呈现出"规模引领"与"口碑制胜"并行不悖的多元化竞争态势。 新势力以科技赋能破局高端市场 2025年，以尖端科技赋能和精细化用户运营见长的品牌，成为搅动并重塑市场格局最为活跃的关键 变量。 2025年，中国乘用车头部品牌已形成了以庞大规模基盘和深厚口碑资产为核心的竞争优势。同时， 以尖端科技赋能和精细化用户运营见长的品牌，成为搅动并重塑市场格局最为活跃的关键变量。面对自 主品牌在电动化与智能化浪潮中的全面崛起与强势进攻，部分传统合资品牌的市场影响力与排名承压， 进入深度调整与战略转型 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is awaiting a turning point in passenger vehicle sales, with RoboX company making steady progress [5][7] - The tools sector is seeing significant developments, including the establishment of the QuanFeng Vietnam park and exciting new products showcased at CES [6][27] Automotive Sector Summary - The Hang Seng Automotive Theme Index increased by 2.2%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (-0.4%) and the Hang Seng Technology Index (-0.4%) [5][13] - In December 2025, the passenger vehicle market reached a new high with retail sales of 2,374.5 million units, including 1,280.9 million units of new energy vehicles, marking a 17.6% year-on-year growth [14] - January 2026 passenger vehicle sales are expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, with an estimated total market retail of around 1.8 million units [15] - New vehicle launches have been relatively quiet, with the Geely Galaxy V900 being the only notable release [19][20] - RoboX plans to deploy 100,000 fully customized Robotaxis globally by 2030, enhancing commercial operations [22] Tools Sector Summary - The establishment of the QuanFeng (Vietnam) New Energy Intelligent Manufacturing Base marks a significant step in global strategic layout [39] - At CES 2026, several innovative home robot products were showcased, including the G-Rover by Stone Technology, which features a dual-wheel leg architecture [40] - Milwaukee Tools opened a flagship experience center in the UK, enhancing strategic value and user engagement [53]

Core Insights - In the fourth week of January, there are positive signs in terminal demand with market activity recovering, second-hand housing sales performing well, and an increase in theme park visitor numbers. However, automotive sales remain low year-on-year, and service consumption shows divergence with a lackluster film box office performance [2] Real Estate - In the first four weeks of January, new home sales in 42 cities saw a narrowing decline, improving from -25.6% to -22.5% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales in 19 cities turned positive at 13.1% from -27.7% [4] - The average sales volume of new homes in 42 cities improved to a decline of -19.5% from -34.9% the previous week, and second-hand home sales in 19 cities increased to 44.4% from -6.9% [4] Automotive - In the first 18 days of January, retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars saw an expanded year-on-year decline, with retail sales down by 28% and wholesale sales down by 35% [6] - The production of semi-steel tires increased to 74.6%, indicating potential strength in wholesale orders despite weak retail performance [8] Textile and Apparel - In December, the textile and apparel sub-industry experienced a decline in export growth, with textile yarn exports down by 4.2% year-on-year and clothing exports down by 10.2% [12] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product wholesale price index increased this week, with pork prices rising by 2.4% and egg prices by 6.3% [16] Film Industry - The film box office revenue and audience numbers both declined, with box office revenue around 280 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 23.1% [20] Leisure and Entertainment - Theme park visitor numbers increased slightly, with Shanghai Disneyland seeing a rise to 54,000 visitors, although still down by 10.8% year-on-year [23] Employment - The national employment volume index decreased to 1.6, while the employment price index rose to 22.8, indicating a higher employment volume compared to last year but lower prices [28] Chemical Industry - The PTA industry chain saw most product prices rise, while the operating rates generally declined due to maintenance and reduced demand from downstream textile enterprises [33] Steel Industry - Steel prices and profit margins decreased, but steel production growth turned positive at 0.3%, indicating a recovery in output despite seasonal demand weakness [37] Cement Industry - National cement prices continued to decline, with a decrease in the cement enterprise capacity ratio, indicating a slowdown in production [43] Glass Industry - The average price of float glass increased slightly, but inventory levels rose, suggesting limited demand support [48] Oil Industry - Oil prices showed mixed trends, with Brent crude down and WTI crude up, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal refinery demand [52] Non-ferrous Metals - Prices for major non-ferrous metals rose, with copper and aluminum inventories increasing, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical factors [57] Coal Industry - Thermal coal prices fell due to reduced demand from warmer weather, while coking coal prices increased, indicating mixed trends in the coal market [62] Freight Transport - In the first 18 days of January, sea freight growth increased while land transport growth declined, reflecting changes in shipping demand [64] Passenger Transport - Domestic flight operations increased, while subway passenger volumes in 20 cities showed slight declines, indicating a recovery in long-distance travel [69] Power Industry - The average daily coal consumption of major power generation groups turned positive at 6.7% year-on-year, driven by increased heating demand [73]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector shows a strong performance with a 2.21% increase, outperforming the broader market [6][23] - The demand for high-end domestic passenger vehicles is exceeding expectations, with a favorable competitive landscape [7] - The commercial vehicle index has seen a significant increase of 7.38%, indicating robust growth in this segment [6] Industry News - Geely's self-developed all-solid-state battery is set to complete its first pack line by the end of the year [5][13] - Tesla has adjusted its Model S/3/X/Y and Cybertruck models, removing the standard Autopilot feature and shifting to a subscription model for FSD [5][13] - Xiaopeng Motors has expanded its global sales network to over 1,000 outlets, entering nearly 30 new markets [5][16] - The humanoid robot market is seeing significant growth, with UNITREE announcing over 5,500 units shipped in 2025, potentially leading the industry [5][17] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance is ranked 16th among A-share industries this week, with a notable increase in the commercial vehicle and auto parts sectors [6][23] - The passenger vehicle sector's PE valuation has decreased, while commercial vehicles and auto parts have seen a 10% increase in PE valuations [10][12] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, companies like JAC Motors and Seres are recommended due to strong demand and competitive positioning [7] - In the auto parts sector, companies such as Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are highlighted for their growth potential amidst improving profitability [7]

Economic Indicators - In the fourth week of January, the average new home sales in 42 cities improved from a year-on-year decline of -25.6% to -22.5%[3] - The year-on-year sales of second-hand homes in 19 cities turned positive at 13.1%, improving from a previous decline of -27.7%[3] - The average wholesale price index for agricultural products increased, with pork prices rising by 2.4% month-on-month[26] Consumer Behavior - Movie box office revenue decreased to approximately 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of -23.1%[36] - The average daily visitor count at Shanghai Disneyland rose to 54,000, but the year-on-year growth turned negative at -10.8%[39] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups increased by 6.7% year-on-year, driven by colder weather in northern regions[105] Industrial Production - The operating rate of semi-steel tires remained high, while the production growth rate of sample steel mills turned positive[5] - The PTA industry chain saw most product prices rise, although the load rates generally declined[51] - The steel production growth rate for sample steel mills turned positive at 0.3% year-on-year, with inventory levels recovering[57] Transportation and Logistics - The container throughput at key ports showed a year-on-year decline, while the overall cargo throughput increased[94] - Domestic flight operations increased, indicating a recovery in air travel demand[99]

智通财经APP获悉，崔东树发文称，2025年12月月末全国乘用车行业库存365万辆，较上月下降14万辆，较2024年12月增60万辆，根据2025年12月底的库 存与未来销量综合预估的现有库存支撑未来销售天数在66天，相对2024年12月的46天增加20天。 从仅生产新能源车企业的库存变化特征分析看，随着反内卷的推动，行业库存9月降到62万辆，12月行业库存上升到78万辆，较峰值库存降10万辆，但较 11月增加4万辆。 1. 近年狭义乘用车零售走势 2024年乘用车国内零售前低后高，7-12月出现持续上升态势。2025年车市前低中高特征，1月由于春节前置等因素较弱，今年国内车市零售累计增速从1月 的负12%持续拉升到1-6月的11%，7-12月呈现高基数的逐步减速特征，市场走出"前低中高后平"的走势。今年7-9月的零售同比增长平稳，10-12月在高基 数下表现较弱。 | 零售 | 18年 | Jat | 20年 | 21年 | 22年 | 23年 | 24年 | 25年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1-2月 | 369 ...