(本文来自第一财经) 中信建投指出，随着人形机器人板块因流动性波动出现深度回调，当前已进入产业趋势0-1拐点前的布 局窗口，特斯拉三季报与股东大会成为重要观测时点；乘用车"金九银十"数据向好但市场预期钝化，结 构上仍看好高端化与智能化主线；商用车则受益于补贴落地与出口放量，低估值高景气特征显著，部分 龙头有望迎来戴维斯双击。 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600733 | 北汽蓝谷 | 7.78 | 2.10% | 77.29万 | 5.94Z | | 601127 | 赛力斯 | 158.04 | 1.50% | 21.23万 | 33.32亿 | | 601633 | 长城汽车 | 23.17 | 0.83% | 13.17万 | 3.04亿 | | 600104 | 上汽集团 | 16.51 | 0.43% | - 30.58万 | 5.04亿 | | 601238 | 广汽集团 | 7.77 | 0.26% | 32.48万 | 2.52亿 | | 002594 | 比亚迪 | 104.76 | 0.23% | 29.91万 | 31.34亿 | | 000625 | 长安汽车 | 12.39 | 0.08% | 107.44万 | 13.31亿 | | 000572 | 步马汽车 | 6.59 | -1.35% | 230.09万 | 15.03亿 | 从资金流向上来看，当日乘用车板块主力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry as of October 20, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a mixed performance with a decline in retail sales for passenger vehicles in October, while cumulative sales for the year show growth. The report highlights significant developments in the smart vehicle sector, including international expansion and technological advancements [1][6][55]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - From October 1 to 12, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 686,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 12%. Cumulatively, 17.694 million units have been sold this year, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year [6][55]. New Energy Vehicles - During the same period, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 367,000 units, down 1% year-on-year but up 1% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 53.5%. Cumulative sales for the year reached 9.236 million units, marking a 23% year-on-year increase [6][55]. Smart Vehicles - The report notes that companies are advancing in technology and expanding into international markets. For instance, the Xiaopeng MONA series has been launched in the Middle East and Africa, making it the first Chinese brand to introduce pure electric models in Egypt and Africa. Tesla has also upgraded its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system to enhance traffic efficiency [6][55][57]. Heavy Trucks - The report mentions that China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation announced a cumulative export of 111,000 heavy trucks this year, representing a 24.5% year-on-year increase. In September, exports surpassed 15,000 units for the first time, setting a new monthly record for the industry [6][55]. Robotics - The robotics sector is highlighted with the company UBTECH winning a contract worth 126 million yuan for humanoid robots, with orders for the Walker series exceeding 630 million yuan for the year [6][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies that are accelerating their smart technology and international expansion in the passenger vehicle sector. It also recommends monitoring component manufacturers with advantages in market, technology, and customer relations in the smart vehicle space [6][55].

Core Insights - The passenger car sector experienced a slight increase of 0.19% on October 20, with Great Wall Motors leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Passenger Car Sector Performance - Great Wall Motors (601633) closed at 22.98, with a gain of 0.57% and a trading volume of 127,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 293 million [1] - SAIC Motor (600104) closed at 16.44, up 0.55%, with a trading volume of 278,600 shares and a transaction value of 458 million [1] - GAC Group (601238) closed at 7.75, gaining 0.52%, with a trading volume of 329,900 shares and a transaction value of 256 million [1] - BYD (002594) closed at 104.52, with a minimal gain of 0.09%, trading 355,600 shares for a total value of 3.722 billion [1] - Changan Automobile (000625) closed at 12.38, down 0.80%, with a trading volume of 1.478 million shares and a transaction value of 1.833 billion [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The passenger car sector saw a net outflow of 1.078 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 674 million [1] - Among individual stocks, SAIC Motor had a net inflow of 18.776 million from institutional investors, while Great Wall Motors experienced a net outflow of 15.0508 million [2] - BYD faced a significant net outflow of 633 million from institutional investors, indicating a potential concern among larger investors [2]

Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with passenger car sales showing a slight year-on-year increase while the overall market sentiment remains weak [3][4][5]. Passenger Cars - In the week of September 22-28, 2025, passenger car sales reached 653,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 26.6% [2]. - For Q3 2025, wholesale passenger car sales are projected to be 7.686 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.7% and a month-on-month growth of 8.1% [5][58]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in Q3 2025 is expected to be 52.4%, with NEV wholesale sales reaching 4.024 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [5][19]. - The export of passenger cars in Q3 2025 is anticipated to be 1.592 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [19][62]. Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the A-share automotive sector declining by 6.1% during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [3]. - The performance of various sub-sectors varied, with commercial passenger vehicles increasing by 3.7%, while other segments like passenger cars and automotive parts saw declines ranging from 2.9% to 8.0% [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi, among others, focusing on those with strong performance in the NEV sector [4][8][58]. - In the parts sector, companies involved in intelligent driving and smart cockpit technologies are recommended, such as Berteli and Jifeng [8]. Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is experiencing significant growth, with Q3 2025 wholesale sales reaching 282,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.1% [40][62]. - New energy heavy trucks are particularly strong, with sales of 58,000 units in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 181.5% [45][62]. Motorcycles - The market for large-displacement motorcycles (over 250cc) is projected to see wholesale sales of 258,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.9% [56][63]. - Exports of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 50.5% [52][63]. Component Sector - The component sector is benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for companies [34][35][62]. - Companies in the supply chain for leading manufacturers like Xiaomi, Xpeng, and NIO are expected to perform well in terms of revenue [38][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a sequential increase in sales and favorable cost conditions, with a notable rise in both total and new energy vehicle sales in Q3 2025 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent and globalized breakthroughs in the automotive sector, recommending key players such as Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 0.1 Passenger Vehicles - Total passenger vehicle sales in Q3 2025 reached 7.686 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% [11][24]. - New energy passenger vehicle sales were particularly strong, with 4.024 million units sold, up 24.2% year-on-year and 10.9% quarter-on-quarter, achieving a penetration rate of 52.4% [11][24]. - The report notes a stable pricing environment, with discounts remaining consistent compared to previous months [25]. 0.2 Auto Parts - The auto parts sector is benefiting from a decrease in raw material costs and shipping fees, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for companies [3][45]. - Key raw materials such as polypropylene and hot-rolled coil prices have seen significant declines, contributing to improved margins for auto parts manufacturers [45]. 0.3 Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is experiencing a boost due to the implementation of trade-in subsidy policies, with wholesale sales reaching 282,000 units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58.1% [3]. - New energy heavy truck sales surged by 181.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in this segment [3]. 0.4 Motorcycles - The report forecasts a total of 258,000 units for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles in Q3 2025, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year increase [4]. - Export sales for motorcycles are also strong, with a 50.5% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in the 500-800cc segment [4]. 1.1 Weekly Insights - The automotive sector's performance has been weaker than the overall market, with a 6.1% decline in the A-share automotive sector during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [2]. - The report suggests focusing on key companies such as Geely, Xpeng, and BYD for potential investment opportunities [2][4]. 1.2 Intelligent Electric Vehicles - The report highlights the accelerating growth of intelligent electric vehicles, recommending companies involved in smart driving and smart cockpit technologies [4]. 1.3 Robotics - The report notes the entry of leading companies into the robotics sector, indicating a new era of embodied intelligence [4]. 1.4 Liquid Cooling - The demand for AI is driving the need for higher power density in liquid cooling solutions, positioning it as a necessary choice for high-density applications [4]. 1.5 Motorcycles - The report identifies a trend towards consumer upgrades in the motorcycle segment, recommending leading companies in the mid-to-large displacement category [4]. 1.6 Heavy Trucks - The expansion of trade-in subsidy policies is expected to stimulate demand for medium and heavy trucks, contributing to market recovery [4]. 1.7 Tires - The report emphasizes the ongoing acceleration of globalization in the tire industry, recommending leading and high-growth companies [4].

数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 近一年中国乘用车进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国乘用车出口情况统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国汽车行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年4月中国乘用车进口数量为3.98万辆，同比下降21.2%，进口金额为 19.58亿美元，同比下降28.4%，2025年4月中国乘用车出口数量为52.53万辆，同比增长9.5%，出口金额 为82.99亿美元，同比增长3.4%。 ...

2025年9月乘用车市场走势较强，在高基数下实现6%的较强增长。15万以下市场相对活跃，小型电动车表现突出，高端增程和插混系列表现较弱。2025年 1-9月乘用车均价是17万元，较2024年均价下降0.7万元，其中9月乘用车均价16.8万元，较同期降0.4万元。前期常规燃油车价格持续上升，市场萎缩在中 低端很明显，而高端萎缩慢，因此从2019年的15万元上升到2023年的18.3万元。2025年随着高端燃油车的较快萎缩，2025年1-9月的均价降低到18.1万元， 9月回升到18.3万元，燃油车购买群体买车逐步稳定。而新能源车的均价近期逐步下降，从2023年的均价18.4万元，下降到2024年的均价17.1万元，2025年 的均价16万元，目前的2025年9月是15.8万元，价格下降明显，体现新能源车消费的活跃。 目前随着车购税免税政策的退出临近，新能源车市场火爆。随着新能源车免税技术指标的升级，部分短续航和高耗电车型面临改款压力。部分品牌为冲年 度目标可能突击促销，部分车企会通过技术升级（如800V高压平台、高能量密度电池）而非单纯降价争夺市场，维护终端价格体系，保障年末市场内卷 降低，实现可持续增长。 | ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002594 | 比亚迪 | 104.43 | -2.37% | 62.57万 | 65.77 Z | | 600104 | 上汽集团 | 16.35 | -2.62% | 48.23万 | 7.974Z | | 601633 | 长城汽车 | 22.85 | -3.26% | 22.18万 | 5.12亿 | | 601238 | 广汽集团 | 7.71 | -3.38% | - 58.29万 | 4.55 Z | | 601127 | 赛力斯 | 155.08 | -3.41% | 27.97万 | 43.93 Z | | 000572 | 海马汽车 | 6.83 | -4.34% | 366.92万 | 26.08亿 | | 600733 | 北汽蓝谷 | 7.65 | -4.85% | 152.25万 | 11.82亿 | | 000625 | 长安汽车 | 12.48 | -6.38% | 370.20万 | 47.11亿 | 以上内容为 ...

截至6月30日，上汽集团股东户数16.38万，较上期减少23.10%；人均流通股70672股，较上期增加 30.04%。2025年1月-6月，上汽集团实现营业收入2995.88亿元，同比增长5.23%；归母净利润60.18亿 元，同比减少9.21%。 分红方面，上汽集团A股上市后累计派现1509.38亿元。近三年，累计派现91.12亿元。 10月17日，上汽集团盘中下跌2.03%，截至13:43，报16.45元/股，成交5.25亿元，换手率0.28%，总市值 1890.97亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出7424.87万元，特大单买入3055.19万元，占比5.82%，卖出1.09亿元，占 比20.68%；大单买入1.08亿元，占比20.64%，卖出1.05亿元，占比19.93%。 上汽集团今年以来股价跌20.43%，近5个交易日跌3.97%，近20日跌13.28%，近60日跌7.76%。 资料显示，上海汽车集团股份有限公司位于上海市静安区威海路489号，成立日期1984年4月16日，上市 日期1997年11月25日，公司主营业务涉及整车(包括乘用车、商用车)、零部件(包括发动机、变速箱、动 力传动、底盘 ...