Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soft commodities industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival due to factors such as the end of downstream restocking, low profitability of spinning enterprises, and the overall decline of commodities [1] - Sugar is at a cyclical bottom, with limited downward space as the price is close to the southern sugar mill's crushing cost. It has no obvious upward drive in the short - term and is in a low - level wide - range oscillation [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Near the end of the year, downstream fabric mills and traders are approaching the end of restocking, and spinning enterprises buy cotton at low prices to replenish inventory. However, spinning in inland enterprises is basically unprofitable, production enthusiasm has declined, and some enterprises plan to have an early holiday. Downstream enterprises are in the stage of centralized payment collection, and sales activities are gradually shrinking [1] Sugar - As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.024 million tons or 18.35%. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 14 to 515 compared to the same period last year. Sugar production in Uttar Pradesh increased by about 5% compared to the end of January last year. In Maharashtra, sugar production reached 7.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 42%, and the number of operating sugar mills increased from 190 to 206. In Karnataka, the sugar production increased by about 15% year - on - year [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector (sugar) is "oscillating" [1] - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (rubber series) is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, overseas fundamentals have limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak, and it may oscillate in a range. Domestically, pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, but the end - price rebound stimulates traders to replenish inventory. There is a lack of fundamental and external - market guidance, and the upper pressure on the disk is significant [1] - For natural rubber, as overseas production areas enter the seasonal reduction and suspension of production, the global natural rubber supply is in a seasonal contraction period. The stocking demand supports the firmness of overseas raw material prices, and the slowdown of short - term inventory accumulation boosts the market's bullish expectations. In the medium - to - long term, there is still an expectation of supply shortage, and the short - term disk may be in a slightly bullish consolidation [5] - For synthetic rubber, the domestic butadiene supply is still tight. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, leading to a recent price correction of butadiene and BR. Affected by the decline of market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend, but due to tight raw materials and strong crude oil, the BR futures price may still be resistant to decline [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR605 contract closed at 5187 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.37% and closed at 5222 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5198 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.25% and closed at 5238 yuan/ton at night [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5236 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5250 - 5320 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5120 - 5180 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5560 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar production is expected to be about 34.35 million tons (before deducting ethanol production), and the consumption is estimated to be about 28.5 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons compared with the previous season, indicating a slight upward trend in sugar consumption [1] - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 13,715 yesterday, with a daily - on - daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: ICE raw sugar fell slightly yesterday. Overseas fundamental news has limited changes, and the market focuses on the production in India and Thailand. The short - term disk drive is weak, and it may oscillate in a range [1] - Domestically: Zhengzhou sugar strengthened slightly yesterday, and the night - session increase expanded. Pre - Spring Festival stocking is basically over, but the end - price rebound stimulates traders to replenish inventory, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly improved. There is still a lack of fundamental and external - market guidance, and the upper pressure on the disk is significant [1] Trading Strategy - SR605 should focus on the activity range of 5100 - 5300. In the short term, this variety lacks obvious drive, and the operation should be based on the short - term idea of high - selling and low - buying [1] Rubber Series Market Review - As of January 28, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 16,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.96%; the closing price of the NR2603 contract was 13,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%; the closing price of the BR2603 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.69% [5] Important Information - The price of Thai raw material glue was 58 Thai baht/kg (0.1/0.17%), and the price of cup rubber was 53 Thai baht/kg (- 0.2/- 0.38%) [5] - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decline of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95% [5] - The price of whole latex was 16,100 yuan/ton yesterday, up 150/0.94%; the price of 20 - grade Thai standard was 1945 US dollars/ton, up 5/0.26%, equivalent to 13,567 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,200 yuan/ton, up 100/0.66% [5] - The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3170 yuan/ton yesterday, 50 yuan/ton wider than the previous day; the spread between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1160 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton wider than the previous day [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 10,400 - 10,650 yuan/ton yesterday, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 10,200 - 10,300 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose steadily yesterday. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market rose 100 to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market was stable at 13,200 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly yesterday. As overseas production areas in northern Thailand and Vietnam shift to reduced production and suspension, the global natural rubber supply enters a seasonal contraction period. The stocking demand supports the firmness of overseas raw material prices, and the slowdown of short - term inventory accumulation boosts the market's bullish expectations. The short - term disk may be in a slightly bullish consolidation [5] - Synthetic rubber: The domestic butadiene supply is still tight. After a sharp rise, the downstream profit is under pressure, leading to a recent price correction of butadiene and BR. Affected by the decline of market sentiment, BR may show a consolidation trend, but due to tight raw materials and strong crude oil, the BR futures price may still be resistant to decline [5] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in natural rubber and observe the pressure performance near the previous high. Hold or partially take profits on BR [5]

Sugar Market - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with an average daily export of 108,600 tons [2] - In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume is projected to be 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average of 93,700 tons [2] - Domestic sugar prices are slightly down, with Guangxi Sugar Group quoting between 5,250 to 5,320 CNY/ton and Yunnan Sugar Group between 5,120 to 5,170 CNY/ton, both down by 10 CNY/ton [2] - Raw sugar remains in the range of 14.5 to 15 cents per pound, with no significant breakthroughs expected [2] - As the holiday approaches, domestic spot transactions are slowing down, but market consensus suggests effective cost support, limiting the potential for significant price declines [2] - Short-term outlook is for price fluctuations, while medium-term focus will be on import rhythms to assess the possibility of forming a mid-term bottom [2] Cotton Market - ICE cotton rose by 1.29% to 63.78 cents per pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 0.38% to 14,565 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 9,225 contracts to 786,700 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is at 15,535 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with a greater than 95% probability of no interest rate cuts in January, and expectations for the first rate cut of the year pushed to June [8] - Domestic cotton market shows limited pre-holiday demand from textile enterprises, with raw material inventory levels at moderately high levels [8] - Cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports leading to ample supply, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum [4][8] - The overall expectation is for cotton prices to remain volatile before the holiday, with medium to long-term prospects still looking promising [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 20, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market showed a mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.01% to 4113.65 points, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.97% to 14155.63 points, and ChiNext Index declined 1.79% to 3277.98 points. The total trading volume of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8044 trillion yuan, up 72 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 Index adjusted downward, closing at 4718.88, down 15.58 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Energy and Chemicals - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke weighted index trended weaker, closing at 1675.7, down 60.9. Coking coal weighted index also showed weakness, closing at 1130.5 yuan, down 52.5. Coke's first - round price increase is expected to be implemented this week, with general coking profits and a slight decline in daily production. Coking coal production has increased significantly, and terminal inventory has risen substantially [2][3][4]. - **Crude Oil - Related (not mentioned directly but related products)**: - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated downward, with a decline of 0.03%, closing at 3139 yuan. Asphalt production increased, inventory continued to accumulate, but the overall supply pressure was not significant. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 2.2 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: Affected by the continued decline in spot prices, the price of Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on Tuesday and continued to decline at night. Indian sugar consumption is expected to be around 28.5 million tons or slightly lower [4]. - **Rubber**: Due to favorable weather in Thailand and Indonesia and a significant increase in imports in December 2025, the price of Shanghai rubber declined on Tuesday. It rebounded slightly at night. China's rubber tire exports and natural and synthetic rubber imports increased year - on - year in 2025 [4]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean futures closed lower on January 20, with the main contract closing at 1053 cents per bushel, down 0.31%. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal M2505 rose 0.33% to 2736 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal inventory reached a six - month low, but it may recover due to sufficient soybean supply [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price rose slightly within the range on January 20. The main contract P2605 closed at 8748, up 1.16% from the previous day. Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month [5]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14620 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots. India's minimum support price for cotton increased by about 8% this year [5]. - **Pig**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 closed at 11550 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter rhythm of farmers may accelerate, and the supply of pigs is still high, while the demand for large pigs in the south is weakening [5]. 2.3 Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, closing at 101230, up slightly. The weakening US dollar index provided some support, but the market was cautious due to the approaching Spring Festival. There are expectations of production cuts in the smelting industry, and downstream demand is in the off - season [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated downward, with a decline of 1%, closing at 789.5 yuan. Both the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore and the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Steel**: On January 20, rb2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to snow and ice on the roads, construction at downstream sites was restricted, and transportation was blocked, leading to weakening terminal demand. Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2671 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina production continued to increase, while demand was weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. The price is under pressure [7]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 23950 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while demand shows structural differentiation. The price is likely to remain high and fluctuate [7]. 2.4 Others - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 fell for two consecutive days. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Attention should be paid to the support from the spot market, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar in the agricultural, forestry and livestock sector is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] - The investment rating for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the external market of raw sugar is weak, affected by supply pressure from Thailand and India, and may maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The domestic sugar market is calm, and technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar is weak. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [1] - For rubber series, natural rubber continues to be weak with insufficient support, and attention should be paid to weather and new policies. Synthetic rubber has a complex situation with both positive and negative factors, and the market may oscillate and consolidate [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Quotes - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5183 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and the night - session closed at 5188 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.14%, and the night - session closed at 5201 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5283 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5150 - 5190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil exported 143.66 million tons of sugar and honey in the first three weeks of January, a 9.09% increase from the same period last year, with an average daily export volume of 13.06 million tons [1] - As of January 17, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a 16.09% decrease from the same period last year. The sugar content in sugar - cane was 11.95%, a 0.08% increase. The sugar - production rate was 9.790%, a 0.024% decrease. The sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a 16.3% decrease [1] - The white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 14439, a daily increase of 313 [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 and pay attention to the range of 5100 - 5230 [1] Rubber Series Market Quotes - As of January 20, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.79%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12550 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.83%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 11585 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.17% [5] Important Information - The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup - lump was 51.8 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38%). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 5.849 million tons, a 2.94% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 995,000 tons, a 6.42% increase, and the general - trade inventory was 4.854 million tons, a 2.26% increase [5] - The price of whole - latex was 15400 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1880 US dollars/ton, a 1.05% decrease, equivalent to 13161 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14750 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease [5] - The price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20. The price difference between mixed - standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 870 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9050 - 9150 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 11550 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 11900 yuan/ton [5] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support near the lower moving average for the rubber series in the near term, and the medium - and long - term strategy is still mainly to buy at low prices [5]

Group 1: Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic sugar market has a calm fundamental situation with no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar has weakened, and the overall commodity performance is sluggish. The market is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state in the short - term, and the support at the lower integer level should be monitored [1]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: On January 19, 2026, the closing price of the SR605 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closed at 5,233 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,245 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,306 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,310 - 5,380 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,170 - 5,210 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5,700 - 5,900 yuan/ton, with an individual reduction of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 518, an increase of 18 from the same period last year. As of January 17, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% from the same period last year. The sugar content was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% from the same period last year. The number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,126, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. - **Market Logic**: The ICE raw - sugar market was closed due to a US holiday, so there was no quotation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. The latest data from Thailand and India were negative for international sugar prices, while the domestic white - sugar market had a calm fundamental situation [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short position of the SR605 contract and monitor the support performance around 5,200 [1]. Group 2: Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The natural - rubber market has insufficient positive fundamental support due to the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend. The synthetic - rubber market is affected by the weakening of the commodity sentiment, and the short - term price is mainly in the process of adjustment. In general, the rubber sector is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support below. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. The NR2603 contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%. The BR2603 contract closed at 11,605 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.78% [5]. - **Important Information**: The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht or 0.86%. The cup - rubber price was 52 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.20 Thai baht or 0.38%. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton, with no change. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%. The general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. The price of whole - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.64%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1,900 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars or 0.26%, equivalent to 13,310 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.54%. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 895 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 10 yuan/ton. The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,150 - 9,250 yuan/ton. The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan to 11,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 150 yuan to 12,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the price continued to fall. With the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend, the fundamental situation was not favorable. For synthetic rubber, although the internal and external prices and supply of butadiene still provided some support to the market, the weakening of the commodity sentiment led to a decline in the actual - transaction price center. The production - device load of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly, but there was still inventory pressure [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support near the moving average in the short - term for the rubber sector, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, incremental funds entered the market, the margin trading scale increased significantly, and the market trading volume quickly expanded. In the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, focus on the market rhythm and adopt the strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market's improved economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. In the first quarter, the bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as the stock market's spring rally, government bond supply, and interest rate cut expectations [7]. - For precious metals, the current international gold price is rising steadily, and the silver price is rising rapidly with significant volatility. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and there are significant risks in opening new long or short positions [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For example, copper prices are supported by tight supply at the mine end, aluminum prices are affected by overseas low inventory and domestic downstream demand, and nickel prices are constrained by oversupply pressure but supported by macro - factors [12][14][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the current range [32][34][38]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber can be considered with a neutral strategy, oil prices can be traded with a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and the strategies for other chemicals vary according to their fundamentals [54][56]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable with partial fluctuations, egg prices may have different trends in the near and far months, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply and demand and other factors [78][79][81]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Three departments held a symposium on new energy vehicle enterprises, Shanghai issued an action plan for high - level autonomous driving, the central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and tax rebates were offered for housing purchases [2]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of main contracts showed different changes. The central bank carried out a 900 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's export and import data in December 2025 were positive. The central bank's net investment was 212.2 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose, and there were differences in the statements of Fed officials. US PPI and retail sales data were released [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and avoid opening new long or short positions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market fluctuated, copper prices rose, LME copper inventory increased, and the import loss of Shanghai copper expanded [10]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The domestic spot market weakened, aluminum prices fluctuated, and inventory increased [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose, and inventory and other data were released [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate widely following the non - ferrous sector [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and nickel iron were stable [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose to the daily limit, supply and demand and inventory data changed [19][20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed [22]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious due to the risk of a significant correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light position [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rose, and inventory and other data changed [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to chase long positions. Consider shorting near - month contracts on rallies [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated, and inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost and supply factors, and may strengthen further [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fluctuated, and inventory and other data changed [31]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to market rumors and policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythms [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices rose, and coke prices fell. Spot prices and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate in the current range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy impacts [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and inventory decreased. Soda ash prices rose, and inventory increased [39][41]. - **Strategy**: For glass, it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory. For soda ash, the market is weak and lacks substantial positive support [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [42]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy impacts [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [45][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be under pressure, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to production plans and policy impacts [46][49]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated, and supply and demand data changed [51][52]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. If the RU2605 contract falls below 16,000, switch to a short - term short strategy [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose, and inventory data showed accumulation [55]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling strategy and wait and see for now [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and regional spot prices and MTO profits changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips [58]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose, and regional spot prices and basis data changed [59][60]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected fundamental bearish factors [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices changed. Supply, demand, and inventory data changed [62]. - **Strategy**: It is possible to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [64]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium - term due to strong supply and weak demand [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [68]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term inventory reduction. Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [70][71]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season and follow crude oil for mid - term long - buying opportunities [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [73]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips as the long - term contradiction shifts to production mismatch [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [75]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year as the supply - surplus pattern changes [76]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices were stable with partial fluctuations [78]. - **Strategy**: The short - term spot price has limited downward momentum, and the mid - term supply is large. Consider short - selling on rallies and long - buying on dips in the long - term [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with some increases [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell near - month contracts on rallies and be cautious of over - valued far - month contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Oil prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [84][85]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [87][88]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The 1 - month USDA report is neutral. Wait for a pullback to go long on Zhengzhou cotton [92].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a broad fluctuation with all three major indices closing lower, while the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) rose by 0.60% to 1.171 yuan, leading its category in trading volume [1][7]. ETF Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) reported a price of 1.171 yuan, with a trading volume of 4.93 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.86% [2][4]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has seen a net outflow of 380 million yuan, but a net inflow of 1.58 billion yuan over the last 20 days and 3.67 billion yuan over the last 60 days [3][9]. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF showed mixed performance, with notable movements including: - COFCO Sugar down by 1.48% - Nanjing Bank up by 2.14% - Agricultural Bank up by 1.46% [2][8]. Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities noted that the spring market rally continues, emphasizing the importance of annual performance forecasts and economic data to support fundamentals, while policy expectations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" may boost market confidence [4][11]. - Cinda Securities highlighted that increased trading volume reflects a recovery in risk appetite, with institutional funds entering the market, suggesting a focus on sectors with price increase expectations and performance support [5][11]. Fund Characteristics - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) was established on December 19, 2018, with a benchmark of the CSI Dividend Low Volatility Index. As of January 12, 2026, it has achieved a total return of 132.74%, outperforming its benchmark [5][11].

消息方面，截至 12 月 31 日，2025/26 年榨季广西 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家；累计入榨甘 蔗 1623.03 万吨，同比减少 525.15 万吨；产混合糖 194.19 万吨，同比减少 80.95 万吨；混合产糖率 11.96%，同比降低 0.85 个百分点；累计销糖 88.48 万吨，同比减少 74.74 万吨；产销率 45.56%，同比 下降 13.76 个百分点。其中 12 月份广西单月产糖 180.8 万吨，同比减少 43.1 万吨；单月销糖 79.54 万 吨，同比减少 55.18 万吨；工业库存 105.71 万吨，同比减少 6.21 万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5300~5370元/吨，上调10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5120~5220元/吨，个别上调10~20元/ 吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5700~5900元/吨，少数调整30~50元/吨，涨跌不一。原糖方面，市场对于 印度产量同比大幅提升反应平淡，市场仍维持震荡格局。国内方面，春节补库开始，成交有所好转，加 之近期大宗商品整体较为强势，期价向区间上沿攀升，未来关键在于本月压榨进度及进口情况， ...