Core Viewpoint - Asia Pacific Resources (01104.HK) anticipates a significant decrease in shareholder profit for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, projecting a profit between approximately HKD 160 million to HKD 240 million, compared to HKD 390 million for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2024 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Profit Forecast** The company expects shareholder profit for the fiscal year 2025 to be between HKD 160 million and HKD 240 million, a decrease from HKD 390 million in 2024 [1] - **Reasons for Decrease** The anticipated decline in profit is attributed to several factors: (a) The commodity business segment is expected to incur a loss of approximately HKD 84 million, contrasting with a profit in the 2024 fiscal year [1] (b) Reduced profits in resource investment and major investment and financial services segments compared to the previous fiscal year [1] (c) Increased losses due to net impacts from: (i) Impairment losses on the company's stake in Mount Gibson Iron Limited (MGX) [1] (ii) Share of MGX's annual performance [1] (d) Partially offsetting profit increases from: (i) Impairment losses or recoveries on stakes in other associates [1] (ii) Share of annual performance from other associates [1] - **Impairment Losses** For the fiscal year 2024, the company recorded impairment losses exceeding HKD 71 million on its stake in MGX, while sharing a profit of approximately HKD 36 million from MGX [1]

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The first meeting between US and Russian leaders in four years is scheduled for August 15, which may impact geopolitical dynamics [1] - The US has imposed additional tariffs on India, leading to a pause in defense cooperation [1] - The Federal Reserve's personnel changes are raising expectations for interest rate cuts in September, while the Bank of Japan hints at potential future rate hikes [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - July's CPI remained flat year-on-year, while core CPI has risen for three consecutive months, indicating a mild improvement in macroeconomic conditions [1] - The decline in PPI has narrowed, reflecting the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] - Foreign trade growth reached a year-to-date high, with both imports and exports showing year-on-year increases [1] - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, with margin trading balances returning to 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but ended higher, driven by a weakening labor market and expectations of Fed rate cuts, alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] - Oil prices saw a decline due to heightened trade tensions between the US and India, raising concerns over demand, while OPEC+ continues to increase production [1] Group 4: Bond Market Analysis - US Treasury yields rose slightly as Fed officials maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy, increasing uncertainty around rapid rate cuts [2] - Chinese bond yields fell slightly due to stable inflation indicators, supporting expectations for moderate monetary easing [2] Group 5: Currency Market Trends - The US dollar index fell as July non-farm payroll growth slowed and unemployment rose to 4.3%, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw fluctuations, supported by the US 10-year Treasury yield maintaining an advantage over Japanese bonds [3] Group 6: Equity Market Performance - Global stock markets performed well, buoyed by weaker US non-farm data that enhanced expectations for Fed rate cuts, boosting risk appetite [3] - US tech giants reported better-than-expected earnings, particularly in AI and cloud sectors, further supporting market confidence [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a pullback after five consecutive weeks of gains, indicating a temporary adjustment rather than a complete market reversal[10] - The Shanghai Composite Index hovered around the 3600-point mark, with average daily trading volume exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting strong market activity[13] - The political bureau meeting on July 30 expressed confidence in the economy, indicating continued macroeconomic policy support for the second half of the year[10] International and Domestic Factors - The U.S. has released stable signals regarding tariff policies, contributing to a more stable global economic environment[10] - Ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. are trending positively, despite no clear outcomes yet[13] Sector Insights - Technology sectors are expected to benefit from eased restrictions on chip exports to China, with a focus on communication and semiconductor industries[15] - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction, with potential investment opportunities in solar energy and new energy sectors[15] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for domestic demand expansion, particularly in tourism and dining sectors[15] Investment Strategy - Short-term focus on innovation-driven sectors, while maintaining a balanced "barbell" strategy that includes both technology and dividend-paying stocks[16] - Long-term investments should consider sectors aligned with government policy directions, such as technology and service-oriented consumption[16] Bond Market - The bond market showed slight stabilization due to the pullback in equity markets, although future outlook remains cautious[35] - The bond market's performance is closely tied to equity market trends, necessitating ongoing monitoring[35] Commodity Market - The commodity market has seen a decline, with black metals and precious metals underperforming due to supply-demand dynamics[46] - Short-term recommendations include maintaining gold positions, while a cautious approach is advised for other commodities[46]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a correction from July 28 to August 1, with major indices like the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and STAR 50 declining by 1.48%, 1.75%, and 1.65% respectively, indicating significant pressure on undervalued blue-chip and technology sectors [1] - The only highlight was the rise of the Wind Micro-Stock Index, which increased by 1.09%, while the Wind Double Innovation Index recorded a positive return of 0.12% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Index by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.76% during the week [1] Industry Performance - The average decline of Wind's first-level industry indices was 1.44%, with only 19% of sectors achieving positive returns [1] - The healthcare, telecommunications, and media sectors performed relatively well, with increases of 2.95%, 2.54%, and 1.13% respectively [1] - Conversely, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors saw significant declines of 3.43%, 4.62%, and 4.67% respectively [1] Fund Issuance - A total of 28 funds were issued last week, including 19 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, and 3 bond funds, with a total issuance of 12.833 billion units [14] Global Asset Review - The global equity markets showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq index slightly up by 0.07%, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell by 1.72% and 0.77% respectively [3] - European markets were generally weak, with the French CAC40 and German DAX down by 0.80% and 0.63% respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 saw a slight increase of 0.14% [3] - Asian markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225, Korean Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index down by 1.58%, 2.40%, and 3.47% respectively [3] Domestic Fund Market Review - The Wind All-Base Index fell by 0.36% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index down by 0.38% and the mixed equity fund index down by 0.39% [2][6] - The bond fund index saw a slight increase of 0.04% [2] - The performance of various fund categories showed that the ordinary equity fund index had a year-to-date return of 14.48% [6] Bond Market Review - The stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect continued, with the national bond futures index (CFFEX 10-year) rising by 0.22% [11] - Short-term funding spreads showed little change compared to the previous week, while medium to long-term rates remained low [11]

Core Viewpoint - The "Beijing Deepening Reform to Boost Consumption Special Action Plan" aims to achieve an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, establishing 2-3 new consumption landmarks worth over 100 billion yuan, and enhancing Beijing's role as an international consumption center [1] Group 1: Promoting Income Growth and Reducing Burdens - The plan emphasizes implementing an employment-first strategy to drive income growth for urban and rural residents, particularly focusing on supporting college graduates and flexible employment [2] - Measures will be taken to improve the minimum wage standards and promote agricultural income through modern agriculture and rural tourism [2] - A public service guarantee mechanism will be established to enhance elderly care services and support for child-rearing, alongside improving financial services for the elderly [2] Group 2: Optimizing Service Consumption Experience - The plan aims to explore new cultural and entertainment consumption by revitalizing historical cultural sites and supporting online performances and exhibitions [3] - It includes initiatives to develop new tourism consumption scenarios and promote major projects like the second phase of Universal Studios [3] - The focus will also be on enhancing sports consumption by cultivating high-value international and local events [3] Group 3: Enhancing Product Consumption Momentum - The plan seeks to elevate the "Jingcai Four Seasons" city consumption brand and promote themed consumption activities monthly [5] - It encourages the development of international food brands and supports the establishment of flagship restaurants in Beijing [5] - The initiative includes creating unique dining experiences and promoting the integration of dining with various public spaces [5] Group 4: Creating Diverse and Integrated Spaces - The plan emphasizes revitalizing commercial spaces through innovative operational models and mixed-use developments [7] - It aims to enhance the consumption capacity of the "dual hubs" by leveraging airport resources and expanding international passenger services [7] - Support will be provided for the expansion of duty-free shops and cross-border e-commerce initiatives [7]

Group 1 - In June, China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1] - Domestic consumption policies have strengthened, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index reached 50.8, both slightly above expectations, indicating a positive trend in the US economy [1] Group 2 - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, significantly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 233,000, marking a six-week low, which has led to a reduction in the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of an earlier rate cut, while trade agreements between the US and Vietnam, as well as progress with the EU, suggest positive developments in trade negotiations [1] Group 3 - A-shares are expected to cautiously trend upwards, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress [1] - The bond market is experiencing reduced external risks and lower inflation expectations, leading to a strong short-term performance in bond prices [1] - The commodity market is showing overall fluctuations, with oil prices rebounding slightly, while the non-ferrous metals sector continues to show strong performance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, with the significant easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the Senate's procedural vote, the dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fell significantly. In China, the stock market rose, the bond market fluctuated, and commodities declined. The market's focus shifted to the global macro - economy, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations as the 90 - day tariff exemption period approaches its end [3][6][26] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall Significantly - **Global Stock Market Overview: Major Stock Markets Rise Universally** - From June 23 to June 27, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment boosted equity assets. Major global stock markets generally rose, with US stocks leading in gains. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, MSCI US rose 3.45% weekly, MSCI Europe rose 3.04%, and MSCI Asia - Pacific rose 3.15% [8][11][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview: Expectations of Dollar Interest Rate Cuts Increase** - Fed Chairman Powell's remarks in the congressional hearing raised expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, causing the yields of medium - and long - term US bonds to decline. The 10 - year US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.29% weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. For instance, the global high - yield bond index rose 1.10% weekly [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The Dollar Index Declines Weekly** - Due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment and the increase in expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, the dollar index dropped significantly, once falling below the 97 - integer mark. Most non - US currencies appreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose. The dollar index fell 1.52% weekly [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil Prices Drop Sharply** - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices and a subsequent correction in international gold prices. Most major agricultural products fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose. For example, the S&P GSCI Energy Index dropped 10.69% weekly [19][20] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market Fluctuates, Commodities Fall - **Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - share Broad - based Indexes Rise Weekly** - With the easing of international geopolitical conflicts, major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed outstandingly. Sectors such as comprehensive finance and computer led in gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% weekly [22] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Fluctuates Narrowly** - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan. The capital situation was relatively stable overall. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Generally, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. For example, the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.02% weekly [23] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Drops Significantly** - The domestic commodity market declined overall. Among major commodity sectors, non - ferrous metals led in gains, while the energy sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index rose 2.71% weekly, while the Nanhua Energy Index dropped 8.78% weekly [24] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Progress of US Tariff Policy - The market's focus has shifted to the global macro - economy. As the 90 - day US tariff exemption period nears its end, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations [26]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows an overall increase in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in the future. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical tensions [18][6][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a volume decline, with the ChiNext index falling by 0.84%. The total trading volume was 1.09 trillion, down by 0.19 trillion from the previous day, with 1,465 stocks rising and 3,455 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that under weak fundamentals, the probability of a bullish index is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift to lower-priced dividend and agricultural stocks [22][24][27]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the potential for a second adjustment. The report notes that the long-term U.S. Treasury bond issuance is facing challenges, with rates briefly exceeding 5%. The report anticipates that as U.S. Treasury rates rise, recession narratives may regain market focus, suggesting that investors should wait for better buying opportunities [27][8][29]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1843, a decline of 80 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index remained flat, with coal, polyester, and construction materials leading gains, while precious metals, coal chemicals, and non-ferrous sectors lagged. Given the high volatility in oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties, the report recommends a cautious approach. However, it notes a technical trend indicating stabilization at the bottom, suggesting that optimistic investors may consider light positions [36][10][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].