国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 08 01 黄金：震荡调整 白银：美股AI压力戳破上涨泡沫 02 铜：高位风险增加，价格暂时调整 03 铸造铝合金：供需双弱，价格高位震荡 04 锌：内外盘共振，价格高位震荡 05 铅：再生增加，需求谨慎，价格震荡 06 07 锡：基本面难以跟涨价格，警惕价格调整风险 铂：突破前高开启补涨 钯：在铂金带领下冲击前高 金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月14日 Guota ...

由于美股早盘下跌拖累市场情绪走弱，原油价格周四收于10月以来的最低点。随着投资者权衡美联储的 利率前景以及对未来经济增长的展望，黄金价格上涨，白银价格突破了每盎司64美元，铜价也刷新历史 高点。 原油：市场情绪走弱 油价收于10月以来最低 受美股早盘下跌拖累，原油价格周四收于10月以来的最低点。 WTI原油价格下跌约1.5%，收于每桶58美元以下，全球基准的布伦特原油收于每桶61美元附近。此前推 动油价上涨的地缘政治紧张局势，被令人失望的企业财报所抵消。 美国军队在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押了一艘受制裁的油轮，标志着两国之间的紧张局势严重升级。 一位知情人士称，乌克兰袭击了卢克石油公司的Filanovsky油田，扩大了对俄罗斯能源基础设施的打 击，尽管美国正在向基辅施压、要求其接受基本上按照克里姆林宫的条件提出的和平协议。冲突一旦结 束，可能将会有更多俄罗斯原油流入市场。 CIBC Private Wealth Group高级能源交易员Rebecca Babin表示："疲弱的股市环境以及乌克兰与俄罗斯之 间不断出现的新闻，让市场情绪持续低迷，而委内瑞拉相关消息仅带来幅度有限的空头回补。" 国际能源署（IEA） ...

展望2026年，王培认为，科技领域或仍将保持较强的产业势能，而价值风格在经济进入稳态区间后，有 望继续发挥支撑作用，市场或呈现"科技承先、价值续后"的特征。他同时指出，在信息密度、投资标的 类型数量大幅提升的市场环境下，投研体系的系统化与协同化将变得愈发关键，中欧基金权益专户团队 将通过专业化分工与工业化生产线应对市场挑战。 近日，在"看见 中欧基金2026年度投资策略会"上，中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培从长 期周期视角出发，回顾了过去二十余年市场风格的几轮重要切换。他指出，当前市场正处在从高成长向 中等增速过渡的阶段，科技与价值两大方向在新的周期背景下出现重新汇合的趋势。 他认为，第一阶段（2000—2010年）由周期成长风格主导，重化工业、资源行业和中低端制造业是主要 受益者；第二阶段（2010—2021年），随着城镇化率持续提升，内需消费与新兴服务不断升级，创业板 指数在这一时期迎来快速成长，市场风格明显向成长倾斜。 进入2021年以来的第三阶段，市场逐渐从高成长回到中等增速区间，价值风格重新占据主导。他指出， 在这一阶段，科创板指数没有跑赢中证红利指数，市场再次呈现价值回归的特征。同时，科 ...

2025年12月11日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二美联储年内第三次降息，贵金属价格先抑后扬，银价逼近 62 美元/盎司。 | | | 金 | 基本面：美联储宣布年内第三次降息，同时宣布将购买短债，不过鲍威尔讲话被市场认为偏鸽，且 FOMC | 内 | | 属 | 部投票分歧加大，出现 3 张反对票，从点阵图看一人主张降 50 基点，七人支持按兵不动；鲍威尔强调，"下 | | | | 次会加息"不是任何人的基本假设，就业增长实际或被高估，自 4 月以来就业增长可能已经略微转负，劳动 | | | | 力市场仍在持续、逐步降温，可能只是比此前预期的降温幅度略微更温和一些。通胀方面，他表示关税影响 | | | | 明年料逐渐消退。国内黄金 ETF 出现流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1123，+0.3 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.3 | 吨， | | | 维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1046.8 吨，-1.2 吨；伦敦 11 月黄金库存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存 | | ...

由于成品油下跌以及投资者对供应过剩前景感到担忧，原油价格连续第二天走低。在美联储周三将公布 利率决策且市场普遍预期将降息25基点之际，白银价格突破每盎司60美元，再度刷新了历史高点，黄金 价格也上涨。铜价则有所回落，2026年的利率前景令市场保持谨慎。 原油：供应过剩担忧拖累油价连续第二天下跌 原油价格周二连续第二天下跌，受到成品油走软的拖累，交易员在等待即将公布的一些数据，以了解原 油过剩的具体程度。 WTI原油下跌1.1%，收于接近每桶58美元，受到柴油、汽油和其他成品油大幅下跌带来的压力。美国汽 油与原油之间的价差（即所谓裂解价差）跌至2月份以来最弱水平，柴油的类似指标也下滑。 成品油一直是今年为原油提供支撑的为数不多的因素之一，而近期由需求走弱引发的疲软，在市场普遍 预期供应将大幅过剩的背景下，进一步加重了看空情绪。 Bridgeton Research Group的数据表明，一些趋势跟随型商品交易顾问正在抛售成品油头寸。 StoneX Financial Ltd．市场分析主管Rhona O'Connell表示，交易员毫无疑问在期待降息，在利率决策公 布前的布局帮助推高了价格。 现货市场吃紧也助推了市 ...

2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 38% 46% 54% 62% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340525070002 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-12-08 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 7792.0 | | 52 周最高 | 7829.42 | | 52 周最低 | 4280.14 | 行业相对指数表现 近期研究报告 《白银突破上行，看好贵金属表现》 - 2025.11.30 有色金属行业报告 （2025.12.01-2025.12.05） 铜 ...

来源：天风研究 基本金属：铜铝普涨，降息驱动铜价创历史新高。贵金属：美联储降息预期强化，金银价格震荡走强。 小金属：锑价小幅回调。稀土永磁：核心磁材公司获通用许可证，出口存放松预期。能源金属：整体呈 现震荡态势。 贵金属：美联储降息预期强化，金银价格震荡走强。 截至12月4日，国内99.95%黄金市场均价850.88元/克，较上周均价上涨1.87%，上海现货1#白银市场均 价13382元/千克，较上周均价上涨10.67%。周初在感恩节假期市场流动性偏弱的背景下，金价的窄幅震 荡反映了投资者在评估美联储信号时的谨慎态度。随后受宏观经济环境和货币政策预期的双重支撑，金 银价格强势上涨。我们看好降息周期中贵金属价格表现。 小金属：锑价小幅回调。 本周0#锑锭市场价格为17.4万元/吨，均价较上周同期下调0.2万元/吨；氧化锑价格下调，99.5%三氧化 二锑市场价格14.55万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格稳定。当前市场价格窄幅波动主要源于两方面支撑： 一是中间商库存成本偏高，低价出货意愿不强，挺价心态较为坚定；二是头部企业年度任务基本完成， 报价多跟随市场情绪。出口方面，近期订单以民营企业申请为主，实际出货规模仍较有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Accelerating the sprint and reaching a new high [2]. - Copper: Strong spot prices support the price [2]. - Zinc: There is support at the lower level [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to seek the bottom [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Trading in a narrow range [2]. - Palladium: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with potential for an upward movement [2]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is trading at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost factors limit the downside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Silver 2512 increased by 1.05% and 4.46% respectively, and the trading volumes of Comex Gold 2512 and Silver 2512 also increased significantly [4]. - **ETF and Inventory**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Gold and Silver decreased [4]. - **Spread and Arbitrage**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper decreased slightly, and the trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased, and the inventory of London Copper increased. The spreads between different copper contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [8]. - **Industry News**: The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026, and the copper premium provided by Codelco to US customers has reached a record high [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased, and the trading volume of London Zinc increased [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of London Zinc increased. The spreads between different zinc contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased, and the trading volume of both increased [15]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead and London Lead decreased. The spreads between different lead contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The closing price of London Tin decreased slightly [18]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased slightly, and the inventory of London Tin remained unchanged. The spreads between different tin contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy contracts showed different trends, and the trading volumes also changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged, and the spreads between different contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [21]. - **Industry News**: The market is facing challenges such as power shortages and infrastructure bottlenecks, and the global central banks' interest rate cuts are expected to end next year [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating neutral trends [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium contracts showed different trends, and the trading volumes also changed [25]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum remained unchanged, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the costs of cross - period arbitrage have changed [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of platinum and palladium are both 0, indicating neutral trends [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel and Stainless Steel contracts increased slightly, and the trading volumes decreased [29]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures that may affect the nickel market, and the production of some nickel wet - process projects will be reduced [29][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating neutral trends [33].

原油价格周二在震荡的交易中走低，投资者在密切关注俄乌局势的发展。铜价从前一天创下的历史高点 回落。白银价格维持在历史高点附近，黄金下滑。 原油：油价在震荡行情中下跌 原油价格周二走低，市场走势动荡；在俄乌和平协议谈判的关键一天，交易员们在评估两国之间冲突的 走向。 WTI原油在大约1.40美元的区间波动，收盘下跌1.2%，结算价在每桶58美元上方。 据国际文传电讯社报道，俄罗斯总统普京发出威胁，可能对在冲突中援助乌克兰的国家的船只采取报复 措施。但普京也强调了俄罗斯经济增长的必要性，在另一个场合称政府对一些行业出现的不平衡现象不 满意。这些评论发表之际，俄罗斯石油生产商正面临困境，在原油价格下跌、制裁和货币走强的背景下 举步维艰。 美国特使威特科夫抵达莫斯科与普京会面。在就潜在的和平协议进行谈判之际，普京声称乌克兰一座重 要城市已被俄罗斯攻占。过去一周，四艘俄罗斯油轮遭到袭击，表明与俄罗斯石油运输有关的袭击急剧 增加。 美国在委内瑞拉采取军事行动的可能性也带来了地缘政治风险，为油价提供了支持。美国总统特朗普暗 示，国防部将很快开始对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团进行地面打击，加剧了上述担忧。 不过，CIBC P ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 1st, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while agricultural products showed mixed performance. Industrial products mostly rose, and agricultural products had both gains and losses [1] - The focus of the steel futures market in December will shift from reality to macro - expectations, and short - term market sentiment is favorable [1] - The rising trend of basic metals is supported by multiple factors, and the fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable [1] - The geopolitical situation and OPEC's production plan affect the energy - chemical products market, and the pressure on oil prices may increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] - The short - term soybean market lacks new drivers, and palm oil prices may rise if the减产 logic is confirmed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Black Series - All black series commodities rose. The recent demand for finished products improved, speculative demand rebounded significantly, and inventory continued to decline. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.25% to 1400.81 million tons, reaching a 3.5 - month low, while production increased by 0.68% to 85.71 million tons, and apparent demand slightly decreased by 0.69% to 88 million tons, still higher than the same period last year [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The price of copper broke through the previous high, and the upward trend is supported by multiple factors in the medium term. The price of aluminum fluctuated upward, with low inventory and resilient demand [1] Energy - Chemical Products - Most energy - chemical products rose. International oil prices pulled up strongly in Asian electronic trading, and the domestic crude - oil series mostly rose. Geopolitical contradictions remain, and OPEC plans to maintain the current production plan. The pressure on oil prices will increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils rose. The price of US soybeans declined, and the domestic soybean meal market lacks new drivers. Palm oil prices are supported by seasonal production reduction expectations, and the price may rise if the reduction logic is confirmed [1] Index Changes - The comprehensive index of Guomao Commodities rose by 1.13% from 2200 to 2224.82 [1] - The daily consumption index rose by 0.85% from 1587.47 to 1601.03 [1] - The Guomao Black Commodity Index rose by 1.12% from 1700.99 to 1720.10 [1] - The Guomao Energy - Chemical Index decreased by 0.05% from 575.99 to 575.72 [1] - The Guomao Oilseeds and Oils Index rose by 0.03% from 2124.65 to 2125.19 [1]