对于即将到来的2026年，也是"十五五"的开局之年，房地产行业将继续推动全面转向高质量发展。在这 方面，会议首先提出，要准确把握房地产市场供求关系的重大变化，看到我国新型城镇化仍在持续推 进，城市存量优化调整也有广阔空间，人民群众对"好房子"形成新期待，房地产仍有较大发展潜力。也 就是说，潜在的住房需求空间还很大，包括已进入城市的新市民、年轻人等无房户，未来还要进入城市 的农业转移人口，以及有房一族的改善型需求等。 比如，七普数据显示存量住房大约42%的房龄超过20年，且1~2房户型占比最大，改善型需求较为强 烈。不过，住房供求关系发生重大变化，即存量房规模大、基本居住需求得到满足以后，尽管潜在需求 空间大，但主要是对"好房子"的需求。 近日召开的全国住房城乡建设工作会议，在全面盘点2025年工作时指出，"好房子"建设起步成势。从内 容看，住建部年初提出的"好房子"三个抓手，即"立标准、强科技、抓项目"取得了积极成效。比如，新 的《住宅项目规范》正式实施，构建了"6633"(六不、六防、三省、三要)、"365"(三用、六优、五支撑) 等"好房子"的建造体系；指导行业领军企业发挥示范作用，以"揭榜挂帅"等推动5 ...

"政策面传递出更多支持消费扩大内需的信号，但投资者仍在等待更多细节落地。"刘刚认为，2026年春 节较往年更晚，在此之前是政策和数据的空窗期，春节后就将迎来两会，届时财政政策的力度如何将成 为市场关注重点。 刘刚还认为，市场也持续关注政策面对于房地产托底的态度。"地产收储以及目前讨论较多的房贷贴 息，都是让房地产行业企稳的手段。而地产行业企稳有利于改善居民资产负债表，提振投资者信心。" 新华财经上海12月21日电 12月20日至21日，中金公司研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策略分析师 刘刚在现场接受新华财经采访时表示，我国将扩大内需定位为战略之举对提振消费至关重要，投资者可 以重点关注明年初到两会前的政策落地情况，是否会迎来变盘窗口。 刘刚表示，2025年消费股表现萎靡，宏观背景是国内信用周期三季度后再度震荡走弱，消费修复斜率偏 低，加之去年高基数效应，导致消费板块缺乏基本面支撑。虽然存在"新消费"等细分主题，但情绪上也 偏弱并缺乏催化。"缺乏基本面支撑的情况下，消费板块难以提供具备高胜率的结构性配置逻辑，在科 技股赚钱效应火爆的映衬下，也就更难吸引到资金的关注。" 不过，刘刚也表示政策针对内需如果大举大力 ...

Economic Growth and Trends - In November, the growth rate of the real economy continued to slow, with demand weakening faster than supply[1] - The expected economic growth for this year remains around 5%, supported by better-than-expected import and export data[1][6] - The central economic work conference set a target for next year's economic growth at approximately 5% with moderate policy stimulus anticipated[1][6] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, significantly below market expectations[2] - Retail sales of goods decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 1.0%, with notable declines in jewelry (-29.1 percentage points to 8.5%) and automotive sales (-1.7 percentage points to -8.3%)[2][10] Investment and Infrastructure - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, which is lower than the market expectation of -2.3%[3] - Real estate development investment fell by 1.2 percentage points to -15.9%, and new construction area dropped by 0.7 percentage points to -20.5%[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water supply) decreased by 1 percentage point to -1.1%[3] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% in November, primarily due to a significant increase in vegetable prices[5] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November, aligning with market expectations[4][20]

新京报贝壳财经记者对比往年内容发现，本次会议在政策取向上突出"稳中求进、提质增效"，并提出"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"。会议强调，要 着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，传递出明年经济工作将更注重结构优化、风险化解与民生实质改善的新信号。 新京报记者 任娇 董怡楠 任婉晴 编辑 陈莉 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出， 重点领域风险隐患较多。这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。要坚定信心、 用好优势、应对挑战，不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 | | 财政与金融的配合,以政府投资 央预算内投资规模,优化实施 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 台湾 | 有效带动社会投资。及早谋划 | "两重"项目,优化地方政府专 | | | "十五五"重大项目。大力实施 | 项债券用途管理,继续发挥新型 | | | 城市更新。实施降低全社会物流 | 政策性金融工具作用,有效激发 | | | 成本专项行动。 | 民间投资活力。高质量推进城市 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 12月10日日间盘，国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现，其中沪银主力合约大涨，再创新高。截至15:00收 盘，沪银涨超5%，集运指数（欧线）涨超3%，碳酸锂、沪锡涨超2%，铁矿石、多晶硅、橡胶等涨超 1%，烧碱、乙二醇、纤维板等微涨 12月10日，国债期货各主力合约收涨。截至收盘，30年期国债期货（TL2603）报收112.790元，上涨 0.340元，涨幅0.30%；10年期国债期货（T2603）报收108.030元，上涨0.060元，涨幅0.06%；5年期国 债期货（TF2603）报收105.825元，上涨0.060元，涨幅0.06%；2年期国债期货（TS2603）报收102.456 元，上涨0.036元，涨幅0.04%。 近日，在"看见・中欧基金2026年度投资策略会"上，中欧权益研究部副总监、基金经理任飞表示，2026 年全球可能面临"再通胀"风险，成因并非传统需求拉动，而是供给约束，特别是全球范围内可能出现的 电力短缺。周期板块或在明年迎来重要机遇，再通胀可能从"潜在风险"转变为投资机遇。 【资金风向标】 Choice数据显示，12月10日，资金净流入额排名前十的个股依次是N ...

Economic Highlights - In November, manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in production despite high inventory constraints[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% for November, supported by accelerated inventory destocking[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November after a decline to -1.1% in October, driven by an increase in working days and reduced production overhang effects[1] Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures are alleviating as the impact of debt reduction on investment is improving, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to maintain high levels due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[2] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds has decreased to around 20%, indicating a potential improvement in investment dynamics[2] Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains under pressure due to companies prioritizing debt repayment over new investments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2% in October[2] - Real estate investment and sales are projected to decline further, with November seeing a 33.1% year-on-year drop in commodity housing sales[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector is keeping cost rates at historically high levels, impacting profitability[2] Inflation and Price Trends - November's CPI is expected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables (10.1%) and gold[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities like coal and copper, despite weak downstream price recovery[3] - Core CPI is likely to show limited improvement, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the downstream sector[3]

新华财经北京12月5日电印度央行周五(5日)将政策利率下调25BPs至5.25%，与预测相符。这是印度央行今年第四次降息，继2月份开始的 三次降息后，印度央行2025年的累计降息幅度达到125BPs。 印度金融市场对如期降息迅速做出了反应。周五上午，在印度央行宣布降息之前，卢比兑美元开盘短暂走强，接近89.85卢比。在降息的 新闻出现后，卢比兑美元回落至90卢比以上。 债券市场方面，10年期印债收益率在消息发布前徘徊在6.5%附近，交易员们密切关注通胀预测和任何公开市场操作。降息宣布后，加上 1万亿卢比的公开市场买债消息，市场对印度政府债券普遍看涨，10年期印债收益率小幅回落至6.49%。分析师预计随着印度央行在12月 开始购买债券后，收益率将会进一步下降。目前2年期与10年期印债收益率利差为79.6BPs。 据标准普尔2025年8月14日的最新评级，印度的信用评级为BBB。5年期印度信用违约掉期的当前报价为87.67BPs。相应的，隐含违约概 率为1.46%。 印度股市认为这一决定是积极的，尤其是对利率敏感的行业。在货币政策委员会做出决定后，印度房地产、汽车和金融类股表现优异， Nifty Realty指数 ...

每经AI快讯，冠城新材（SH 600067，收盘价：4.49元）12月5日晚间发布公告称，公司第十二届第十八 次董事会临时会议于2025年12月5日以通讯表决方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司2026年度日常关联交 易预计的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，冠城新材的营业收入构成为：工业占比77.28%，房地产行业占比17.41%，其他业务 占比4.12%，服务业占比1.19%。 截至发稿，冠城新材市值为62亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——秒光、售罄！银行大额存单成稀缺资源，2%以上产品很难抢，有的门槛高 达1000万元！专家：存款利率或长期下行 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Group 1 - The market has been experiencing volatility and lack of direction due to high expectations and positions in the technology growth sector, alongside concerns about the AI bubble and cooling interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Technology Index by approximately 16.6% from its peak [1] - The domestic consumption and real estate sectors, despite attractive valuations and positions, have seen a weakening of fundamentals, making it difficult for investors to reach a consensus [1] - The banking sector has rebounded nearly 10% from the end of September, emerging as a preferred choice in the current environment of uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Over the past two years, the essence of China's asset dynamics can be summarized as the pursuit of "scarce assets" driven by "excess liquidity," with market consensus rapidly inflating asset prices once they are recognized as scarce [2] - The technology sector remains a sustained growth direction, with hardware in A-shares showing greater elasticity and software in Hong Kong stocks demonstrating resilience, although high valuations and expectations necessitate additional industry progress or liquidity to catalyze growth [3] - Domestic consumption and real estate chains, while having low expectations and valuations, face challenges in forming a lasting consensus due to weakening fundamentals, although policy catalysts could create temporary trading opportunities [3] Group 3 - Dividend stocks continue to be a good hedge against the backdrop of domestic credit contraction [3] - External demand chains should focus on strong and early cycles, with potential catalysts from increased physical investment due to U.S. fiscal policies ahead of midterm elections and unexpected Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - An "barbell" investment strategy combining dividends and technology internet stocks is recommended, with dynamic adjustments to weights based on market conditions to achieve effective hedging and balance [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment, suggesting that a reduction in industry risk assessment and increasing confidence in a medium to long-term recovery path are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. Despite a short-term acceleration in market decline, expectations for enhanced real estate policies in December and the first quarter of 2026 are strengthening the investment value of quality real estate stocks [2][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Expectations - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese decision-makers are considering a new round of real estate policies, including interest subsidies for new personal housing loans, increasing personal income tax deductions for mortgage payments, and further reducing housing transaction taxes. This has led to a rise in real estate stock prices. The effectiveness of such policies, particularly interest subsidies, is crucial for short-term market recovery, depending on the magnitude and duration of the subsidies [3][4]. Market Data - In October, the real estate market showed significant declines, with a 19% year-on-year drop in sales area (61.47 million square meters) and a 24% decrease in sales value (CNY 597.7 billion), marking the largest declines since the second half of 2024. New personal mortgage loans fell by 30% year-on-year to CNY 95 billion, and development investment decreased by 23% year-on-year. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the report emphasizes the need for substantial fiscal policies, such as interest subsidies, to restore market confidence [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and Jindi Group (600383, Accumulate) [5].