Could the US interest rate cut boost the housing market?23 minutes agoDanielle KayeBusiness reporterEPA-EFE/REX/ShutterstockA picture taken with a drone shows single-family homes in Woodbridge, Virginia, USA, 02 January 2024.Aileen Barrameda is planning to buy a house in Los Angeles in the coming months. Stubbornly high mortgage rates - twice what she locked in at the start of the coronavirus pandemic - are not putting her off."If I have the means to get in the market, I might as well get in now, because ho ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——全国首批L3级"真自动驾驶"汽车要来了！高速能脱手、堵车能歇气，但权 责怎么分？专家解答 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，*ST南置的营业收入构成为：房地产行业占比100.0%。 截至发稿，*ST南置市值为41亿元。 每经AI快讯，*ST南置（SZ 002305，收盘价：2.35元）9月17日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第一次董 事会临时会议于2025年9月17日以现场结合视频表决的方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举公司第七届董 事会董事长的议案》等文件。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 股指继续上行，市场成交缩量 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-9-15 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8月社融增速首次回落。8月新增社会融资2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，低于近五年同期均值。社融存量增速在连续10个月回升后首次回落 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 至8.8%。政府债券净融资同比少增2519亿元，为2023年11月以来首次下降，也成为社融的主要拖累。企业短期贷款同比多增2600亿元，创2013 | | 业盈利 | | 年以来同期新高，或反映银行以短贷"冲量"信贷。居民短贷仅增105亿元，再创历史新低，显示消费意愿低迷。M1同比增速微升至6%，增幅 | | | | 放缓，或仍受基数影响。 | | | | 财 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2020, productive credit (excluding real estate and infrastructure loans) has been continuously increasing, while terminal demand credit (related to real estate and infrastructure) has been declining, indicating that credit support is more reflected on the supply side rather than the demand side [2][4][5] Group 1: Productive Credit Needs to Decline - A clear definition is established: terminal demand credit includes infrastructure loans, real estate loans, and consumer loans, while productive credit includes business loans and non-real estate infrastructure loans [4][13] - Data observation shows that since 2020, the growth of productive credit has significantly outpaced that of terminal demand credit, with productive credit increasing by 4.8 trillion compared to a decrease of 4.9 trillion in terminal demand credit from 2019 to 2024 [4][13] - The excessive increase in productive credit may exacerbate supply-demand contradictions, where productive investment serves as both current demand and future supply [4][15] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang Macro WEI index as of September 7, 2025, is at 6.93%, up 0.17 points from the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [6][17] - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement shipment rates have improved compared to last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 34.9%, up 9% year-on-year [7][26] - Real estate sales have shown a significant increase, with a 16.6% year-on-year growth in residential sales in 67 cities during the first five days of September [8][24] Group 3: Price Trends - Prices of gold, oil, and copper have risen, with COMEX gold at $3646.3 per ounce, up 1.3%, and LME copper at $10068 per ton, up 1.2% [8][44] - Domestic commodity prices have remained stable, while overseas prices have increased, indicating a divergence in price trends [8][44] Group 4: Interest Rates and Debt - The yield on government bonds has shown an upward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8670%, reflecting a steepening yield curve [8][65] - The government has planned to issue new local government bonds amounting to 118.5 billion, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [8][49]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In the first eight months of the year, the total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The increase in RMB loans for the same period was 13.46 trillion yuan, with 590 billion yuan added in August alone [1] - The financial sector continues to support the real economy effectively, aided by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Group 2: Personal Loan Growth - Household loans increased by 711 billion yuan in the first eight months, with 303 billion yuan added in August, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.597 trillion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 5.196 trillion yuan [2] - The growth in personal loans is attributed to the traditional summer consumption peak and policies promoting consumption [2] - The service industry activity index rose to 50.5%, indicating strong performance in sectors like travel and entertainment [2] Group 3: Real Estate Policy Impact - Long-term loans for households increased by 200 billion yuan in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 1 trillion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 1.3 trillion yuan [3] - New real estate policies in major cities have positively influenced housing demand and mortgage loan inquiries [3] - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans in August was 3.1%, down approximately 25 basis points from the previous year [3] Group 4: Corporate Loan Trends - Corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.5 trillion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 5.3 trillion yuan [5] - Short-term loans for enterprises saw a significant increase, while medium to long-term loans remained stable [6] - The manufacturing sector's PMI rose, indicating improved production and financing demand [6] Group 5: Structural Adjustments in Monetary Policy - The total balance of RMB loans reached 269.10 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [8] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans grew by 11.8%, and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increased by 8.6% [8] - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to enhance financial support for key sectors [9] Group 6: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is stable, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors showing signs of expansion [11] - The overall economic growth is expected to meet the target of around 5% for the year, supported by continuous and stable macro policies [11] - Experts emphasize the need for reforms in key areas to address deeper issues and promote consumption [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent measures being considered by the Trump administration to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S., highlighting the increasing trend of homeowners opting for cash-out refinancing to pay off debts amid high inflation and personal debt levels [3][4][5]. Group 1: Housing Affordability Crisis - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the Trump administration is contemplating declaring a national housing emergency this fall to tackle rising home prices and reduced supply [4]. - The government is exploring ways to simplify permits and encourage standardized local building and zoning regulations to boost housing supply and lower costs [4]. - The current housing market challenges have led to financial polarization, increasing rental costs and higher mortgage rates for potential homebuyers [4]. Group 2: Cash-Out Refinancing Trends - The proportion of cash-out refinancing transactions has risen to 59% of all refinancing in Q2, as homeowners seek to extract cash from their properties to pay off debts [7][8]. - A significant percentage (44% to 67%) of refinancing borrowers reported using the cash for debt repayment, reflecting the high levels of consumer debt, which reached a record $5.44 trillion by the end of June [7]. - Many homeowners are facing negative cash flow situations, prompting them to leverage their home equity despite the potential for higher mortgage rates [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Approximately 70% of recent cash-out refinancing borrowers are accepting higher mortgage rates, averaging an increase of 1.45 percentage points for $94,000 in cash [8]. - The decision to refinance is influenced by the higher rates of other loans, such as credit cards averaging 21% and personal loans at 12%, making cash-out refinancing a more appealing option despite the costs [8]. - Homeowners are prioritizing debt repayment over maintaining lower mortgage rates, as evidenced by a case where a homeowner refinanced to pay off $155,000 in consumer debt, resulting in a lower overall monthly payment despite losing a lower mortgage rate [8].

Employment Overview - The latest data from the Bosnia and Herzegovina Statistics Bureau indicates that the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and motor vehicle and motorcycle repair sectors are the largest employers in Bosnia and Herzegovina [1] - As of June 2025, the total employment in Bosnia and Herzegovina reached 853,300, with female employees accounting for 390,400 [1] - The total employment number showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while the number of female employees remained stable [1] Sector Employment Breakdown - In June 2025, the manufacturing sector employed 160,200 individuals [1] - The wholesale and retail trade, along with motor vehicle and motorcycle repair, employed 158,100 individuals [1] - Public administration, defense, and social security services ranked third with 76,800 employees [1] - The sectors with the least employment were mining and quarrying (14,800), water supply, sewage treatment, and environmental remediation (13,700), and real estate (3,282) [1]

分析师：何敏仪 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040001 电话：0769-22177163 | 公 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 司 | | | | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | | 究 | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：何敏仪 | SAC | 执业证书编号： | | | | | | | | S0340513040001 | 电话：0769-22177163 | | | | | | | | | 邮箱：hmy@dgzq.com.cn | | | | | | | | | | 主要数据 | 2025 | 年 | 8 | 月 | 26 | 日 | 收盘价(元) | 10.71 | | 总市值（亿元） | 333.24 | 总股本(亿股) | 31.11 | | | | | | | 流通股本(亿股) | 26.86 | ROE（TTM） | 10.98% | | | | | | | 12 | 月最高价(元) | 12.44 | 12 | 月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Rosenberg Research is that the U.S. real estate market will significantly contribute to a decline in overall inflation, potentially bringing it close to 1%, well below the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [1] - The company's housing market activity index indicates a "substantial decline" in the U.S. real estate sector, with 10 out of 11 indicators showing significant downturns over the past six months [1][2] - The only indicator that did not decline was the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which increased by 0.8% over the past six months, but reduced transaction activity may pressure home prices downward [1] Group 2 - Housing-related expenditures account for approximately one-third of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S., and the current downturn in the housing market is expected to have a lasting suppressive effect on inflation through 2026 [2] - The projected year-on-year CPI growth for the second quarter of 2026 is estimated to be between 1.2% and 1.8%, indicating a potential halving of the inflation rate compared to current levels [2] - Concerns about inflation slowing down or even deflation are emerging, with factors such as tightened immigration policies and an aging population potentially weakening consumer demand [2][3] Group 3 - Key indicators of the housing market's decline include a 23.9% decrease in housing starts, a 23.7% drop in new single-family home sales, a 16.1% decline in existing home sales, and a 14.2% reduction in the quarterly rent index for new tenants over the past two quarters [4] - The number of potential buyer visits has decreased by 7 percentage points, which is considered a critical data point in the index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent State Council meeting emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector, which is crucial for unleashing domestic demand and promoting high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Consumer Potential and Market Dynamics - Systematic removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector will empower consumers with more autonomy, allowing them to make consumption decisions based on their needs and economic capabilities, thereby enhancing quality of life [1]. - The removal of restrictions will break down market barriers, attract more market participants, stimulate competition, and encourage companies to innovate, optimize products and services, reduce costs, and improve quality, leading to industry innovation and transformation [1]. Group 2: Specific Sector Policies - Optimizing automobile purchase restrictions is essential as the automotive industry is a pillar of the national economy, and normal consumption will benefit both automotive manufacturers and their supply chains, facilitating industry transformation [2]. - Adjusting real estate market policies to release improvement housing demand is critical; removing housing-related restrictions can enhance market circulation and invigorate related industries, thus boosting economic growth [2]. - Accelerating the development of service consumption and new consumption models, such as online education and shared economy, by lowering market entry barriers will better meet the public's needs for a better life and represent a significant growth potential [2]. Group 3: Implementation Principles - The process of removing consumption restrictions should follow scientific, orderly, and coordinated principles, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach and ensuring a stable and transparent market environment [3]. - In the automotive sector, shifting from purchase management to usage management through improved transportation systems can alleviate traffic pressure and meet consumer demand [3]. - In real estate, comprehensive cancellation of purchase, sale, and price restrictions is necessary to establish a new mechanism for the interaction of housing, land, and finance, promoting reasonable circulation and moderate consumption [3]. Group 4: Service and New Consumption Areas - In the service consumption sector, breaking down hidden market entry barriers and promoting diverse high-quality services in health, elderly care, and tourism will meet the growing demands of residents and create job opportunities [4]. - For new consumption areas, creating a favorable environment for the development of digital economy and green consumption will accelerate the application of new technologies and business models, fostering new economic growth points [4]. Group 5: Market Regulation and System Construction - Strengthening market regulation and building a fair competitive environment is essential to protect consumer rights and ensure market order while promoting consumption [5]. - Different government departments should adopt a systematic approach to dismantle consumption restrictions and continuously release consumption potential, supporting steady progress in high-quality economic development [5].