据外媒报道，行业组织Unica称，9月上半月，巴西中南部主产区糖产量较去年同期增长15.72%，达到 362万吨。 对于白糖后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 上周二（9月30日）收盘，白糖期货主力合约报5493元/吨，涨幅0.07%，当日持仓量环比减持29008手至 388037手。据统计，上周（9月29日-9月30日）白糖期货周K线连续两周收阳，累计上涨0.27%。 消息面回顾： 据外媒报道，分析机构及供应链服务提供商Czarnikow发布报告称，10月起的2025/26年度，全球糖市场 预计供应过剩740万吨，创2017/18年度以来最高。 巴西航运机构Wiliams发布的数据显示，截至10月1日当周巴西港口等待装运的食糖数量为321.06万吨， 此前一周为310.39万吨。 目前北方甜菜糖产区已经有糖厂开榨，预计国内食糖25/26榨季产量或平稳略增，进口糖近期大量到 港，国内食糖供应压力继续增加，国内供需基本面持续趋向宽松，中期需要关注甘蔗糖新糖开榨前的旧 糖去库情况，或影响波段行情的时间节奏。原糖趋势方向未改之前，预计国内糖价维持低位震荡走势。 瑞达期货（002961）：供应充足压制，糖价承 ...

•贺利氏（Heraeus）：美联储继续降息前景对黄金有利 •光大期货：长假期间贵金属走势上具有较高的不确定性 •铜冠金源期货：金价再创新高，宜轻仓过节 •五矿期货：美国政府面临"关门"危机 贵金属稳步上涨 编辑：郭洲洋 光大期货表示，美国8月成屋签约销售指数同比上涨0.5%，前值为上涨0.3%，成屋签约销售创五个月新 高，按揭贷款利率下降提振住房市场。美联储官员Hammack称对通胀前景感到担忧，货币政策面临"一 个充满挑战的时刻"，只有在经济前景出现"更实质性的疲软"时，她才希望将政策转向宽松立场，而目 前她并未看到这种情况。美国联邦政府10月1日可能面临＂停摆＂风险，加之国际地缘冲突持续发酵， 市场避险情绪上升，受此影响美元回落，并推动金价再创新高。国内长假将至，国际贵金属市场正常交 易，期间国际市场将公布多项重要经济数据，美政府也面临停摆威胁，走势上具有较高的不确定性。短 期价格已处历史高位，技术面存在回调压力，假期波动可能加剧。 铜冠金源期货表示，受美国降息预期、对美国政府关门的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势升级的影响，投资 者纷纷涌向避险资产，金价再创历史新高。美国劳工统计局表示，一旦发生政府停摆，将暂停 ...

Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

日度报告——综合晨报 9 月 LPR 按兵不动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-23 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储博斯蒂克：认为目前没有太多理由进一步降息 金价强势上涨 2%再创新高，美联储利率会议落地后各位票委开 始出来讲话，最为鸽派的特朗普亲信米兰继周五的鸽派讲话后 再度表示应该以 50bp 的速度持续降息，提振市场情绪 宏观策略（国债期货） 9 月 LPR 按兵不动 短期利空因素有所缓和，但预计债市仍然难以脱离震荡行情。 综 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 合 英伟达计划对 OpenAI 投资最高 1000 亿美元 晨 报 美联储官员分歧较大，降息预期回摆，科技板块维持强势，继 续带动指数录得上涨。 农产品（豆粕） 阿根廷暂时出口大豆及油粕出口关税 阿根廷暂停征收出口关税令内外盘期价明显下跌，关注我国是 否增加采购阿根廷大豆/豆粕；美豆收割继续推进，优良率不断 下滑；巴西播种完成 0.9%。国内豆粕库存继续增加。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 206 家钢企完成超低排放改造公示 钢价延续震荡反弹，近期"反内卷"政策预期仍有发酵，市场 对于旺季需求也有一定预期，国庆假期前或带动一定补库需求， 对 ...

发布了哪些重要政策、通知？ 这周有哪些大事要闻？ 一起来快速回顾一下吧！ 领导关心 1.更好发挥试验田和增长极作用！陈吉宁用一整天时间调研临港新片区并主持召开座谈会 9月18日，上海市委书记陈吉宁用一整天时间在中国（上海）自由贸易试验区临港新片区调研并主持召 开座谈会。 调研期间，陈吉宁实地听取了上海国际再保险登记交易中心建设运营情况介绍，与入驻机构代表互动交 流，了解业务开展和产品开发情况，就强化法治保障、支持业务创新、完善监管体系等听取意见建议。 座谈会上，陈吉宁讲话指出，要更好发挥改革开放试验田作用，持续抓好改革任务的扩围放量，在风险 可控前提下推动扩大试点领域、适用范围和覆盖区域，让更多企业受益。聚焦离岸金融、数据跨境流动 等重点领域开展更大程度的先行先试，研究提出配套措施、监管规则和管理机制，做到整体设计、多点 突破、项目任务化落地。 上海市委副书记、市长龚正出席座谈会并讲话，指出要深化制度型开放，在探索发展离岸金融、推动数 据跨境流动等重点领域形成一批标志性、引领性的成果。 机关动态 4.上海市委金融办、市金融工作党委举办2025年宣传思想文化工作专题研讨班 9月17日至19日，上海市委金融办、市 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts by the end of the year [1][2] - Following the announcement, COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3744 per ounce before retreating to $3692 per ounce, indicating market volatility and differing opinions on gold price trends [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the initial surge in gold prices may have been a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, with short-term traders taking profits after the rate cut [2][4] Group 2 - International gold prices have increased by 5% in September and over 33% year-to-date, reflecting strong market interest [3][4] - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and UBS, have raised their gold price forecasts, with predictions of prices potentially exceeding $4000 to $5000 per ounce [4] - The weakening of the US dollar due to rate cuts is seen as a significant factor driving gold prices higher, as central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves to reduce reliance on dollar assets [4][5] Group 3 - Despite the bullish outlook, analysts caution about potential short-term volatility due to profit-taking and uncertainties in the global economy, including fluctuating US economic data and geopolitical tensions [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with some investors expecting this easing policy to continue until 2026, potentially lowering rates to around 3% [3] - Historical trends indicate that after similar rate cuts in 2024, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise instead of fall, influenced by oil price fluctuations, Trump's economic policies, and inflation concerns [3] - Current economic conditions show persistent inflation and emerging concerns in the job market, with core PCE inflation projected to rise by 3.1% this year and remain at 2.6% in 2026, exceeding previous expectations [3] Group 2 - The key resistance level for gold futures is identified between 843 CNY/gram and 860 CNY/gram, while the important support level is between 826 CNY/gram and 850 CNY/gram [4] - Gold futures are currently trading at approximately 832.80 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.74%, with a high of 839.00 CNY/gram and a low of 827.00 CNY/gram observed [1]

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]

Group 1 - The State Council issued the revised "Three North" project overall plan, which aims to guide regions in promoting high-quality development through three major battles from 2021 to 2030 and further phases until 2050 [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that the average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, a decrease from the previous month and down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a historical low [1] - The total government debt in China is projected to reach 92.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a government debt ratio of 68.7%, which is considered reasonable and manageable [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan at the end of August, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% [2] - The total social financing scale in China reached 433.66 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the classification supervision regulations for futures companies to enhance compliance and risk management [3] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines for the construction of electricity spot markets, supporting the integration of renewable energy into the market [4] - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration established management measures for the domestic duty-free tobacco market, requiring compliance with legal pricing regulations [5] - The International Monetary Fund warned Romania about the sustainability of its fiscal policy, predicting public debt could approach 70% of GDP by 2030 without further fiscal measures [7]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 30.4 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 74.9 billion yuan after 22.91 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - Current monetary policy is focused on flexible use of various tools to manage liquidity based on market interest rate changes, aiming to stabilize market expectations and meet reasonable liquidity demands [1] Group 2 - Major interbank interest rate bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 1.75 basis points to 1.8125% and the 30-year government bond yield rising by 2.25 basis points to 2.0925% [2] - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by policy expectations, liquidity, and marginal changes in macroeconomic data, with a general upward trend in bond yields indicating a weakened appetite for bond assets [2] Group 3 - COMEX gold prices surpassed the 3,700 USD/ounce mark for the first time, reaching a historical high of 3,702.1 USD/ounce, driven by increased demand for risk hedging and safe-haven assets [3] - This price movement is likely influenced by global geopolitical tensions, rising inflation expectations, and uncertainties in monetary policy [3] Group 4 - The release of the national standard for the "Individual Business Credit Evaluation Indicators" aims to enhance credit evaluation mechanisms for individual businesses, facilitating better access to financing [4] - The standard is designed to help financial institutions develop and provide financial products tailored to the characteristics of individual businesses, thereby expanding their loan scale and improving loan precision and convenience [4] Group 5 - A federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump's decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, indicating ongoing legal and political challenges surrounding Federal Reserve governance [5]