Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with recent data indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold investments [1][2][4]. Market Trends - COMEX gold futures reached a near one-month high of $3,476.3 per ounce on June 16 but fell below $3,400 per ounce by June 18, with London spot gold prices also declining to around $3,380 per ounce [2]. - The global gold ETF market saw its first monthly net outflow since November of the previous year, with a 1% decrease in total assets under management to $374 billion and a reduction of 19 tons in total holdings to 3,541 tons [2][4]. Central Bank Actions - Over 90% of central banks surveyed expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level of confidence since the survey began in 2019 [4][5]. - Approximately 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, driven by ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. Predictions and Scenarios - Citibank has lowered its target price for gold, suggesting that in a pessimistic scenario, prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026 [4]. - The bank outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a basic scenario with prices stabilizing between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce, an optimistic scenario where prices could exceed $3,500 per ounce due to economic recession and geopolitical tensions, and a pessimistic scenario where prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [3].

在我国橡胶产地，有这样一排排"娃娃树"——虽然挺拔而立、枝叶繁茂，但从未流出过乳白色的胶汁。 它们，是胶农的希望所在，未来最终将在胶农的辛勤劳作下流出乳白色的"希望之汁"。从种植到开割， 一棵橡胶树需要八年时间。这八年，是胶农们精心呵护、耐心等待的八年，也是天然橡胶"保险+期 货"项目扎根、成长、开花结果的八年。 金融"活水"润胶林 胶农从"望天收"到"安心割" 2011年，胶价在创下4000美元/吨的历史高位后快速下跌，国内天胶价格一度从43500元/吨跌至10000元/ 吨附近，跌幅超过70%。在这一轮"熊市"周期中，胶农收入锐减，价格低时卖一公斤胶水的收入还不够 买一瓶矿泉水，常面临"割胶即亏损"的情况。 十年前，由于胶价跌破成本线，海南、云南的胶农每割一吨胶便面临亏损超5000元的尴尬。自此，胶农 陷入"欲割不能，欲罢不忍"的两难境地。为了生计，许多胶农无奈放弃割胶或转种其他作物。据期货日 报记者了解，2015年海南白沙黎族自治县的弃割率高达30%～40%，甚至有部分村庄完全弃管。至于云 南地区，资料显示，在2016年胶价长期处于低位的情况下，部分胶园改种香蕉等经济作物，我国天胶种 植面积因此缩减。不 ...

央行：一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元 房地产贷款增速回升 据中国人民银行统计，2025年一季度末，金融机构人民币各项贷款余额265.41万亿元，同比增长7.4%， 一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元。2025年一季度末，人民币房地产贷款余额53.54万亿元，同比增长 0.04%，增速比上年末高0.2个百分点，一季度增加6197亿元。 2025年一季度末，房地产开发贷款余额 13.87万亿元，同比增长0.8%，一季度增加3535亿元。个人住房贷款余额37.9万亿元，同比下降0.8%， 增速比上年末高0.5个百分点，一季度增加2144亿元。 监管鼓励不良资产转让 上半年消金公司转让已超100笔 在监管机构鼓励不良资产转让的大背景下，今年以来，消费金融行业不良资产转让市场持续升温。截至 5月29日，已有15家持牌消金公司发布了103笔不良贷款转让公告，涵盖招联、蚂蚁、兴业、中银等头部 机构，以及南银法巴、平安、幸福、海尔等腰部机构。其中，仅中银消金一家，就有55笔转让业务。银 登中心的数据直观反映了市场热度。一季度，金融机构个贷不良资产转让成交规模达370.4亿元，与去 年同期相比，激增761%。消金行业挂牌转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed officials are cautious about cutting interest rates due to inflation risks, and the concentrated maturity of US Treasury bonds from June to July may cause a liquidity shock. However, due to the difficult - to - reduce US fiscal deficit, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Indicators - **US**: The scale of short - term Treasury bonds maturing in June and July is $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion respectively, which may cause a liquidity shock. The May SPGI manufacturing and service PMI were both higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has been postponed to September/December due to concerns about inflation rebound. The US Treasury's cash account balance may decrease to release liquidity, and the CBO predicts that the Treasury funds may be exhausted as early as August - September, which will make the Fed slow down the reduction of its balance sheet [2][7][11]. - **Europe**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and is expected to cut interest rates in June and about twice more before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May and is expected to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [2]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still a possibility of further interest - rate hikes as some officials hope to raise rates to 1% in the second and third quarters [3][4]. 3.2 US Treasury Bond Market - **Inflation Expectation**: The implied medium - and long - term inflation expectation of US Treasury bonds has begun to decline, although the one - year and five - year consumer inflation expectations in May continue to rise [15][17]. - **Yield**: The medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields have begun to decline but are still at a high level. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bond yields remain stable. The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury bond yields is positive but narrowing [18][20][21][26]. - **Financial Pressure Index**: The US OFR financial pressure index has increased compared with last week [29][31]. 3.3 US Economic Indicators - **Loan and Credit**: The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks has increased, while the weekly rate of credit card and car loans has decreased [33][35]. - **Retail Sales**: The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales has increased, indicating that the US consumer industry remains prosperous [37][39]. - **Mortgage**: The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms have increased, causing the MBA mortgage application activity index to decline. The sales volume of new and existing homes in April has increased [41][43]. - **Unemployment**: The number of initial jobless claims is lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims is higher than expected and the previous value, indicating that the labor demand in the US job market remains strong [45][47]. 3.4 International Bond Yield and Exchange Rate - **Bond Yield Difference**: The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany has increased [49][51]. - **Exchange Rate**: The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar [52][53]. 3.5 Precious Metal Market - **Gold**: The volatility of the US gold ETF index has decreased. The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures price premium is in a reasonable range. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going long on the SHFE gold basis [54][57][61][66][72]. - **Silver**: The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has decreased. The domestic silver futures and spot price premiums are in a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for silver - related arbitrage opportunities [77][81][85]. - **Precious Metal Ratio**: The "gold - to - silver ratio" is far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going short on the "gold - to - silver ratio". The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" are also far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years, and corresponding arbitrage opportunities are recommended [97][99][100][102].

证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 22 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2025/5/22 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農筋偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 上证50股指期货 | 二债 | 铝 | | | | 短纤 | 碳酸锂 | 氧化铝 | | | | PTA | 中证500股指期货 | 焼蔵 | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 十债 | 塑料 | | | | 对二甲苯 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 沥青 | 三十债 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 五债 | | | | | 生猪 | 纯碱 | | | | | 工业硅 | 棉纱 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 白糖 | | | | | 夏粕 ...

Group 1 - The commodity market shows mixed trends, with palm oil and aluminum oxide rising over 1%, while the chemical sector collectively declines, with styrene dropping over 2% and industrial silicon down by 2% [1] - Lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have reached historical lows [1] - The main contracts for styrene and industrial silicon have seen significant price drops, with styrene down 2.16% to 7558 and industrial silicon down 1.91% to 7975 [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has lowered the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to 3% and 3.5% respectively, indicating a shift in monetary policy [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to implement most employment and economic stabilization policies by the end of June, aiming for high-quality development [4] Group 3 - The commercial inventory of the three major oils has increased to 1.86 million tons, with a week-on-week rise of 40,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 200,000 tons [5][6] - The inventory breakdown shows soybean oil stable at 640,000 tons, canola oil at 810,000 tons (up 10,000 tons week-on-week), and palm oil at 410,000 tons (up 30,000 tons week-on-week) [5][6] Group 4 - The chemical sector is experiencing a downturn, with styrene futures dropping to below 7600 yuan, influenced by supply and demand dynamics [7] - The market for styrene is currently balanced, with no significant supply reduction, and downstream demand remains stable despite minor fluctuations [7] Group 5 - The SCFIS European line index has decreased by 2.9% to 1265.30 points, reflecting a cooling market after previous macroeconomic optimism [8] - The market is expected to stabilize and return to fundamental valuation as the supply-demand balance is reassessed [8]

Core Viewpoint - The "Nansha Financial 30 Measures" aims to enhance financial support for the Nansha area, positioning it as a key node in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's high-quality development and international financial hub [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The measures are structured around seven dimensions, including improving financial services for innovation and entrepreneurship, enhancing financial services in social welfare, developing specialized financial services, promoting cross-border financial cooperation, and ensuring supportive measures [2][3]. - The initiative is a strategic deployment to accelerate the construction of major cooperation platforms in the Greater Bay Area, aligning with the "Greater Bay Area Development Plan Outline" [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Entrepreneurship - A primary focus is on enhancing financial services for innovation and entrepreneurship, supporting the construction of technology innovation industrial cooperation bases [3]. - Specific measures include supporting financial institutions in innovating bill discount products and increasing financing support for eligible enterprises [3]. Group 3: Cross-Border Financial Services - The plan emphasizes the development of cross-border asset management centers and encourages the use of RMB for international shipping fees [4][5]. - It aims to facilitate cross-border payment services and credit financing, including expanding the range of banks for Hong Kong and Macao residents to open accounts [7]. Group 4: Commodity Futures and Insurance - The establishment of a commodity futures delivery center is proposed to enhance the integration of spot and futures markets, contributing to the pricing power of commodities [6]. - The measures also include the development of cross-border insurance products tailored for residents in the Nansha area [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-12 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | 20250414 | 2025/ ...

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨和佳 刘雪莹 在"对等关税"的恐慌情绪下，这场多资产抛售狂潮几乎席卷到了所有领域，全球金融市场几乎 没有赢家，从股市到大宗商品全线大跌。 周一亚市早盘，正在交易中的美股股指、原油期货、加密货币、贵金属等继续重挫。 继美股上周跌近1 0%后，周一早盘，美股股指期货开盘后迅速跌幅扩大，其中纳指期货跌超 5%，标普5 0 0指数期货跌超4%。 原 油 期 货 上 周 累 计 下 跌 1 0 %，但 周 一 继 续 重 挫 。 W T I 原 油 期 货 周 一 跌 破 6 0 美 元 / 桶， 为 自 2 0 2 1 年 4 月 以 来 首 次 。 现货黄金日内下跌近1 . 7%，现货白银周一盘初下跌3%，后者上周累计暴跌了1 3%。 | 2986.100 昨结 3037.310 | | --- | | -51.210 -1.69% 0 | | 最高价 3032.380 | | 最低价 2976.585 | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 ◎ | COMEX期铜一度跌超8%。 加密货币加入了全球市场暴跌行列。 比特币和以太坊分别下挫超6%、1 2%，其他加密货币亦 重挫。截至4月7日7 ...