Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles revolves around the Chinese central bank's "combination punch" to support high-quality economic development through various monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and increased lending to small and medium-sized enterprises [1][8]. Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [1][8]. - The re-lending quota for agricultural and small business support has been increased by 500 billion yuan, with a total quota of 1 trillion yuan specifically for private enterprises [1][8]. - The re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation has been increased by 400 billion yuan, expanding the support scope [1][8]. - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% [1][8]. - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [1][8]. International Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products starting January 15, which includes Nvidia's H200 chip and AMD's MI325X [1][7]. Commodity Market Trends - In the commodity market, energy products saw significant declines, with fuel oil dropping by 2.82% and various chemical products also experiencing downturns [1]. - Agricultural products mostly rose, with corn starch increasing by 0.55% [1]. Oil Market Insights - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with expectations of increased exports from Venezuela due to a stable situation [2][15]. - OPEC forecasts that global demand for oil from its member countries will remain stable, with daily demand projected to increase to 43 million barrels by 2027 [2][15]. Palm Oil Market Analysis - Malaysia's palm oil production in December was reported at 1,829,761 tons, a decrease of 5.46% month-on-month, while exports increased by 8.52% [3][27]. - Concerns about palm oil demand have arisen due to Indonesia's decision to maintain its biodiesel blending ratio at B40 instead of increasing it to 50% [3][27]. Precious Metals Outlook - Recent economic data indicates easing inflation pressures in the U.S., which supports expectations for interest rate cuts and a favorable environment for precious metals [4][20]. - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and weakening dollar confidence [4][20]. Financial Market Developments - The stock market is experiencing a shift from valuation-driven growth to profit-driven growth, with expectations for continued upward movement supported by policy effects and economic recovery [12]. - The financing balance in the stock market increased by 15.237 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical risks have led to significant increases in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching a record high of $4639.39 per ounce and silver surpassing $90 per ounce for the first time, indicating strong market demand and investment interest [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold prices have increased by over 7% since 2026, while silver has surged by more than 25% during the same period [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices have generally risen, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang increasing prices by 10 CNY per gram to 1436 CNY per gram [2]. - Analysts predict that gold will average $4538 per ounce in 2026, with potential to challenge the $5000 mark [2]. Group 2: Market Predictions - Analysts expect silver's upward momentum to continue into 2026, with predictions of prices reaching unprecedented levels due to macroeconomic factors [1]. - The gold-silver ratio of approximately 59 suggests that silver has more room for price increases, with potential prices of $135 per ounce if the ratio returns to historical lows [2]. - Citigroup analysts forecast that gold prices will exceed $5000 per ounce in Q1, while silver could reach $100 per ounce [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints in the silver market are exacerbating price volatility, with strong industrial demand providing additional support [3]. - The recent changes in margin requirements by the CME Group may impact trading costs and speculative interest in platinum and palladium, potentially leading to a divergence in their performance compared to gold and silver [4]. - Geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline are expected to continue driving investment into gold, while silver remains supported by strong industrial demand [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous expectation of macro - easing boosts capital sentiment, driving the strength of precious metals. In the long - term, precious metals have allocation value due to dual benefits of macro - financial and supply - demand attributes, leading to a rising price center. In the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility, giving their prices stronger elasticity. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, referring to technical indicators like the 20 - day moving average [1][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, due to uncertainties in the US domestic and foreign situations, capital sentiment is high, and precious metal prices break through again after a short - term adjustment last week. Silver leads the increase, with the international silver price breaking through the historical high of $90 per ounce, and the main silver futures contract AG2604 rising by over 8% to nearly 22,900 yuan per kilogram. The main platinum futures contract PT2606 rises by over 6% and then narrows [1]. Driving Factor 1: Weak US Employment Market and Moderate Inflation Boost Fed's Easing Expectation - In December, the US non - farm employment increased by 50,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. From October to November, the total was revised down by 76,000. In 2025, the annual employment increase was only 580,000, the weakest since the pandemic. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, but it was mainly due to the decline in the labor force participation rate in the household sample. The number of registered unemployed people reached 7.5 million, remaining at a high level since mid - 2021 [3]. - In December, US CPI inflation was moderate, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, both the same as the previous values. Core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.7% [3][4]. - The weak labor market and inflation situation increase the urgency of further policy easing. The US president pressures the Fed, and the Republican Party is looking for a new Fed chairman. Since last September, the Fed has cut interest rates three times, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points, and launched RMP to buy short - term treasury bonds. Although the market expects the Fed to remain on hold in January, there is a possibility of a more dovish attitude. Under the expectation of policy and loose liquidity, institutional funds have high sentiment for early - year allocation, and precious metals will gain a higher premium [4]. Driving Factor 2: Geopolitical Conflicts and Resource Competition Intensify Supply Tension, and COMEX Physical Delivery Demand is Strong - US intervention in the geopolitical situations in the Middle East, South America, and Greenland is to control and plunder strategic resources. The growth of AI and data centers increases the demand for electricity, and China's tightened silver export policy since January 1, 2026, drive the US to increase resource control in other regions [7]. - Since January, the total number of delivery notices issued for non - main COMEX silver futures contracts has reached 7,212 lots, equivalent to 36 million ounces. The delivery volume in less than half a month is three times that of January last year. Some main - contract positions are "reverse - rolled" to the near - term, indicating strong short - term physical demand. Although the London spot market is relatively loose, the global silver ETF holdings are rising, and the inventory structural tension may not be truly alleviated [8]. Outlook - Precious metals have long - term allocation value, but in the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility. Investors should set stop - loss and take - profit points according to news and use a strategy of buying on dips with a light position, referring to the 20 - day moving average [13].

Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The U.S. is expected to grow by 2.2%, while the Eurozone and Japan are projected to slow to 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively [1][8] U.S. Economic Policy and Market Reactions - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates as the economy improves, denying any plans for another government shutdown and indicating upcoming policies aimed at reducing the cost of living [7][8] - Trump has accused Fed Chair Powell of overspending by billions, labeling him as "incompetent or corrupt," and has indicated plans to nominate a new Fed chair soon. This has drawn support for Powell from former Treasury Secretaries and central bank leaders, who criticized political interference in central bank independence [8] U.S. Fiscal Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported a record budget deficit of $145 billion for December 2025, the highest for that month historically. The deficit for the fiscal year 2026 so far stands at $602 billion, down from $711 billion in the same period last year [8] Labor Market and Inflation - The New York Fed President Williams stated that the current U.S. economic conditions are "quite favorable," with no signs of rapid deterioration in the labor market, and expects stabilization and gradual improvement this year. He noted that monetary policy is close to neutral, with no strong pressure for rate cuts or hikes in the short term [2][8] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.6%, both unchanged from previous values. Due to prior government shutdowns, the data's reference value is limited, and the market anticipates a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January [8] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.8% to 49,191.99 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.19% to 6,963.74 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.1% to 23,709.87 points [3][9] - COMEX gold futures declined by 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [4][10] - U.S. oil futures increased by 2.69% to $61.1 per barrel, and Brent crude rose by 2.43% to $65.42 per barrel [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations in prices, with various factors influencing both gold and silver prices, including industrial demand and investment sentiment. Group 1: Gold and Silver Prices - As of January 10, the international spot gold price slightly decreased by 0.03% to $4,475.8 per ounce, while the basic gold price in China remained stable at 993 yuan per gram [1] - The price of gold bars varies significantly among banks, with Agricultural Bank's "Chuan Shi Zhi Bao" rising to 1,017.05 yuan per gram, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange lists gold bars at 989 yuan per gram [1] - The price of gold jewelry from leading brands ranges from 1,158 to 1,398 yuan per gram, with different brands reflecting varying levels of premium and market positioning [1] Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 0.40% increase in Au9999 to 1,007 yuan per gram, while the 100g gold price fell by 0.47% to 1,006 yuan per gram [2] - The trading dynamics show mixed movements, with AuT D at 996.54 yuan per gram (down 0.45%) and silver T D experiencing a significant rise of 4.25% to 20,060 yuan per kilogram [2] Group 3: Collectibles and Gold-Silver Ratio - The 2026 Panda gold set is priced at 60,084 yuan, highlighting the transition of gold from everyday use to collectible status [3] - The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 59, indicating a potential for mean reversion, as it has decreased over 40% since April [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Institutions emphasize the importance of the gold-silver ratio as a navigational tool for investors, suggesting a reallocation between gold and silver [5] - Regular investment in gold ETFs is recommended to mitigate the challenges of liquidating physical gold while smoothing out price volatility [5] Group 5: Long-term Market Insights - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks for 14 consecutive months, alongside the depreciation of the dollar and policy uncertainties, suggests that the narrative around gold extends beyond mere price fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant volatility in the silver market, with prices reaching a historical high of $82.744 per ounce on January 6, followed by a sharp decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment, which reduced the expected increase from 15% to 4% [1][3] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall bullish trend for silver remains intact, supported by global market turmoil and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][6] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, is undergoing a significant weight adjustment from January 8 to 14, 2026, which will impact silver and gold's market positions [5][6] Group 2 - The weight adjustment will lead to substantial selling pressure, with Citigroup estimating a sell-off of approximately $7 billion for both gold and silver, while Morgan Stanley predicts that silver will face the most significant selling pressure compared to previous years [5][6][10] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised margin requirements for precious metals, including silver, to manage market volatility, which is a common regulatory response to excessive trading activity [6][7] - Some investors are positioning themselves to short silver futures, anticipating a significant price drop due to the upcoming selling pressure from the index rebalancing [10][11] Group 3 - Despite recent price volatility, many institutions remain optimistic about silver's long-term prospects, viewing any weakness as a potential buying opportunity [13][14] - The silver market is expected to benefit from macroeconomic factors, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and new regulations in India that may increase demand [13][14] - Historical data suggests that silver has a higher potential for price appreciation compared to gold, with analysts indicating that the current gold-silver ratio implies significant upside for silver prices [14]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of the year, with prices reaching a historical high of $82.744 per ounce on January 6, followed by a sharp decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment, which reduced the increase from 15% to 4% since 2026. However, buying interest has led to a rebound, with prices around $78.8 per ounce as of January 9 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, had an asset scale nearing $109 billion as of October 2025. The annual weight adjustment period for 2026 is from January 8 to 14, with silver's weight in the index reduced from 9% to just below 4%, leading to significant selling pressure [5]. - Citigroup estimates that the total sell-off for both gold and silver will be around $7 billion, with silver's asset management scale (AUM) at $12.9 billion and a target of $6 billion [5]. - Morgan Stanley has quantified the sell-off pressure on silver for 2026, indicating it will be more significant than in 2025, with silver facing the heaviest selling pressure compared to gold [5]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends and Technical Adjustments - January is traditionally a month of intense market dynamics for gold, with an 80% probability of price increases during the last ten trading days of the previous year and the first twenty of the new year. However, the technical sell-off due to index weight adjustments may counteract this seasonal trend [6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised margin requirements for precious metals multiple times, with the latest adjustment on January 8, aimed at ensuring adequate collateral coverage amid market volatility [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Some investors are positioning themselves for a decline in silver prices, with analysts from TD Securities establishing short positions, anticipating significant selling pressure due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's reweighting [10]. - Despite recent volatility, the overall sentiment for the precious metals sector in 2026 remains optimistic, with analysts suggesting that any weakness in silver could present buying opportunities [11][12]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The World Silver Institute reports an average annual supply-demand gap of over 130 million ounces since 2021, totaling nearly 800 million ounces, which is equivalent to two years of global mine production. This gap is being filled by depleting inventories, which are at a ten-year low across major markets [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, including dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and new regulations in India that may boost silver demand, suggests that silver still has potential for strength in 2026, despite short-term volatility [13][14].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.55% and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.44% [1] - The Chinese concept stocks saw a rise, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up by 1.09% [1] - Market traders are factoring in expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, despite previous signals indicating only one cut might occur in 2026 [1] Commodity Market - International crude oil futures saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil futures up by 3.16% and Brent crude oil futures up by 3.39% [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.48%, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.19% [2] Economic Forecasts - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office projects that the GDP growth rate will accelerate to 2.2% by 2026, with an expected unemployment rate of 4.6% [5] - The United Nations forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.7% for 2026, slightly down from 2.8% in 2025, citing ongoing trade tensions and fiscal pressures [9] Corporate Developments - Glencore is in preliminary discussions with Rio Tinto regarding a potential merger, which may involve a full stock merger [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 central bank work meeting confirmed a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the "integrated effect" of incremental and stock policies, which provides support for the economy and enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. However, geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy uncertainty pose potential risks [2]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to be strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The bond market may need to find a bottom, and if the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize [5][7][8]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with risks of insufficient actual cargo volume support. The far - month contract is suppressed by the resumption of navigation and off - season expectations [13]. - For new energy products, lithium carbonate has long - term value support and opportunities to build long positions on dips. Industrial silicon has limited downside space and is suitable for building long positions in far - month contracts. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of prices and terminal winning bids [17][19]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are in an accelerating upward phase, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc may reach a short - term top, nickel - stainless steel may be strong in the short term but with callback risks, tin has limited upside space, and lead is expected to fluctuate [24][25][28]. - In the oilseeds and fats market, oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Fats are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [31][34]. - The asphalt crack spread may be strong in the short term due to supply disruptions [36][37]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium may face short - term correction risks due to index parameter adjustment, while gold and silver are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern in the short term and are bullish in the medium - to - long term [40][43]. - In the chemical industry, pulp and offset paper prices have risen, and it is advisable to wait and see. LPG is supported in the short term by geopolitics but is under pressure in the long term. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. Methanol is likely to start an upward trend. PP and PE have short - term improvements in fundamentals but face Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure. Pure benzene - styrene is running strongly, and rubber is expected to fluctuate widely [46][49][52][54][57][60][63][65][70]. - For black commodities, steel prices are expected to fluctuate, iron ore is running strongly, coking coal and coke may rebound, and ferroalloys may be under pressure to suppress the upward rhythm [80][82][84][86]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, cotton is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustments, sugar is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern, rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, apples are running strongly, dates are in a low - level oscillation, and logs follow an interval trading strategy [90][92][96][99][101][103]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, using tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The Fed's policy and the Venezuelan situation may affect the market. The internal "policy integration" and external geopolitical disturbances create structural opportunities in the market [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Before the release of the US December ADP employment data, the US dollar index is oscillating. The RMB is relatively strong, and the central bank shows an intention to stabilize the exchange rate. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at 7.02, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at 6.96 [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is strong, but there may be a phased correction due to local over - heating. The short - term is expected to be strong [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is under pressure. If the stock market corrects, it may help the bond market stabilize. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and try to buy on dips in the short term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The shipping index futures rose on January 2. The market is in a game between pre - Spring Festival and price increase implementation. The short - term is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo volume support and resumption of navigation [9][11][13]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures limit up, and the spot trading weakens. In the long - term, there is value support, and it is advisable to build long positions on dips [15][17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream products have risen. Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation but has a low - risk long - position value. The spot price of polysilicon has risen, and attention should be paid to price sustainability and terminal winning bids [18][19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in an accelerating upward phase. The futures market has net capital inflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 90000 - 100000 range and be cautious about new long positions above 100000 [22][24]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina is expected to oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong. The core factors include funds and supply - demand expectations [25][26]. - **Zinc**: It may reach a short - term top. The short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 24600 [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It rose strongly. The short - term may be strong due to Indonesian supply policy expectations, but there are callback risks [27][28]. - **Tin**: It is not recommended to short in the short term, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile and strong before the sentiment fades [29][30]. - **Lead**: It rose with the sector. It is expected to oscillate, and the price may fall after the sentiment fades [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: It shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply pressure in Brazil next year suppresses the main contract, but there is a short - term supply gap. It is recommended to hold a 35 positive spread [31][33]. - **Fats**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. The fundamentals affect the price ratio, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel information [34]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **Asphalt**: The supply is disturbed, and the short - term crack spread may be strong. The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect the supply of heavy - crude oil and thus the price of asphalt [36][37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They rose strongly. In the short term, beware of the selling pressure caused by index parameter adjustment. In the medium - to - long term, the price center is expected to rise [40][41]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are approaching the previous high. In the short term, it is easy to rise and hard to fall. In the medium - to - long term, they are bullish, and corrections are opportunities to add long positions [42][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The spot price of pulp has risen, and the futures price is affected by spot support and overall commodity sentiment. The price of offset paper futures is rising, and it is advisable to wait and see [45][46]. - **LPG**: It is supported by geopolitics in the short term but is under long - term pressure. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [47][49]. - **PTA - PX**: It is affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost fluctuations. PTA is expected to have a tight supply - demand pattern in the first half of 2026, and PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter [50][52]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It rebounded due to geopolitical speculation. The demand side is under pressure, and the inventory is high. The rebound is likely to be phased [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward trend. The change in inventory accumulation expectations is the main factor, and attention should be paid to the restart of Fude and the reduction of Iranian imports [55][57]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, and the Spring Festival inventory accumulation pressure exists. It is expected to oscillate [58][60]. - **PE**: It is rising from the bottom. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand support is insufficient. It is in a supply - demand reduction pattern [61][63]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: It is running strongly, affected by geopolitical pricing and capital allocation. The fundamentals are improving but are still in the off - season. Do not chase the high [64][65]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [66][70][72]. - **Soda Ash & Glass & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a surplus expectation, glass has high inventory and cold - repair expectations, and caustic soda is in a wide - range oscillation [73][75][76]. - **Propylene**: It is supported by cost in the short term, but the upside space is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [77][78]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are expected to oscillate. The fundamentals of steel products have little contradiction, but there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future [80]. - **Iron Ore**: It is running strongly. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is affected by macro expectations [81][82]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They rebounded strongly. The inventory structure of coking coal has improved, and the supply pressure in January may ease. The coking profit of coke is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the downstream steel mill's复产 elasticity [83][84]. - **Ferroalloys**: They rose due to electricity price news. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The upward rhythm may be suppressed, but the downside space is limited [85][86][87]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Cotton**: The short - term is affected by supply - demand expectations and policy adjustment expectations. Pay attention to the cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang and beware of price corrections. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [89][90][91]. - **Sugar**: It is in a strong - side - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [92][94]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term may be strong, but there are callback risks. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and the RU - BR spread [94][96][98]. - **Apple**: It is running strongly. The shortage of delivery products is expected to push up the prices of near - and far - month contracts [99][100]. - **Date**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [101][102]. - **Log**: It is oscillating. The 03 contract can adopt an interval trading strategy of buying low and selling high in the 760 - 790 range [103][104].

Key Insights - China's December LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, maintaining stability for seven consecutive months due to pressure on bank net interest margins and stable policy rates [1][18] - The US Q3 GDP shows a significant annualized growth of 4.3%, surpassing market expectations of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years, driven by strong consumer spending [2][19] - The central bank's monetary policy committee emphasizes the integration of incremental and stock policies to enhance monetary policy regulation, aiming to maintain low comprehensive financing costs [3][19] - The foreign exchange market sees the offshore RMB against the USD surpassing the "7" mark for the first time in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.9985 [4][19] Market Review Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.47% to $60.33, while COMEX gold rose by 3.98% to $4562 [21][22] - The US dollar index decreased by 67.84 basis points, influenced by calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [22] Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.27% over the past week, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.00% [23][24] - The Hang Seng Index gained 0.50%, supported by a weaker US dollar [26] Bond Market - Major bonds saw a decline, with 3Y AAA and AA+ bonds down by 7 basis points, while 1Y government bonds also decreased by 7 basis points [29][31] - The fourth-quarter monetary policy meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining capital market stability [29] Asset Allocation Perspective - The unchanged December LPR indicates a preference for stable interest margins rather than aggressive monetary easing, with expectations of a slight economic rebound amid easing trade tensions [33] - The strong Q3 GDP data in the US suggests a robust performance driven by the AI sector, although interest rate cut expectations have cooled slightly [33]