有色金属类 工业硅&多晶硅： 23日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2511收于8925元/吨，日内跌幅2.3%，持仓减仓11794手至27.4万手。百川工 业硅现货参考价9604元/吨，较上一交易日上调121元/吨。最低交割品#421价格回涨至8900元/吨，现货 贴水收至25元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力2511收于50260元/吨，日内跌幅2.74%，持仓增仓7826手至 11.6万手；多晶硅N型复投硅料价格涨至52500元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格涨至52500元/吨，现货升水扩 至2240元/吨。工业硅短期成本支撑与高库存压制并存，存在偏强支撑。多晶硅能耗政策意见稿发布， 1/2级标准稍有提升，但相对强制出清力度相对温和。特朗普计划将硅产品纳入征税清单。在内外政策 联动且均未落地阶段，多晶硅抢生产和抢出口情绪浓厚。政策和实际供需演绎方向背离，形成短期承压 长期偏强的格局。 碳酸锂： 昨日碳酸锂期货2511合约跌0.16%至73660元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价维持73850元/ 吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价维持71600元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）维持74130元/吨。仓单方面，昨 日仓单库存增加540吨 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日星期二 【市场回顾】 万手。 【重要资讯】 【逻辑分析】 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2511 合约收于 79920 元/吨，跌幅 0.25%，沪铜指数减仓 10887 手至 46.67 2.现货：临近假期下游备货节奏较缓，上海现货报升水 55 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 5 元/ 吨。广东库存 4 连降，台风来临下游适量增加采购量，整体交投尚可，报升水 70 元/吨， 持平上一交易日。华北消费疲软，当前采购谨慎，报贴水 90 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。 1. 据海关总署在线查询平台数据显示，中国 8 月铜矿砂及其精矿进 ...

管涛 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 年初政府工作报告将今年居民消费价格指数（CPI）预期涨幅设定在2%左右，较往年下调了1个百分 点，并强调通过各项政策和改革共同作用，改善供求关系，使价格总水平处在合理区间。今年以来，央 行也多次强调把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。至今，尽管国内物价依然维持低位运行， 但出现了一些积极变化，反映了供给侧"反内卷"的初步成效。只是稳物价依然任重道远，需要进一步综 合施策。 "反内卷"助力物价改善 今年前8个月，我国CPI累计同比下降0.1%，剔除食品和能源的核心CPI增长0.5%，工业生产者出厂价格 指数（PPI）下降2.9%；上半年国内生产总值平减指数下降1.0%，已连续9个季度同比下降。从这些指 标看，今年要实现年初制定的通胀预期目标难度不小。 但同时也要看到，国内物价运行边际上出现了一些积极变化：一是月度核心CPI自今年5月以来连续4个 月同比增速环比回升，8月份升至0.9%；二是8月份PPI同比下降2.9%，但月度同比降幅在经历连续5个 月环比扩大后首次回落，幅度达到0.7个百分点。 物价长期低位运行是当前我国经济面临的主要挑战之一，也是导致宏微观体感温差的主要原因 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints - The alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window further expands. The domestic alumina supply surplus is increasing due to the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the overseas alumina supply surplus is also growing. The import window has opened, putting pressure on domestic prices. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, safety and environmental protection rectification in Shanxi continued, and safety controls tightened in Henan and Shanxi near the National Day. In the south, the rainy season in Guangxi affected mining but not downstream production. The spot price of Guinean bauxite decreased, and the long - term agreement price for the fourth quarter is undetermined. Newly arrived ore was 359.9 million tons, including 282.3 million tons from Guinea and 77.6 million tons from Australia. The shipping freight from Guinea to China increased [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The futures rebounded in the middle of the week, and trading volume increased. The import profit expanded. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2900 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 177 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 40 million tons to 9795 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.15% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 4 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 4 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: The national alumina inventory increased by 3.9 million tons to 371.9 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises generally increased, with regional differences. Alumina enterprise inventory slightly increased, port inventory fluctuated, and in - transit/in - warehouse/on - platform inventory continued to rise [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 17703 tons to 150393 tons [15] 2. Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - In August 2025, the import of alumina was 9.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1392%. The export was 18 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative net export was 126.5 million tons [16] - On September 19, 2025, Brazil sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 351 US dollars/ton for November shipment [16] - On September 19, 2025, India sold 3 million tons of alumina at an FOB price of 336 US dollars/ton for December shipment, 4.93 US dollars/ton higher than the previous deal [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - exporting countries, and prices of caustic soda and thermal coal [17][19][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [34][37][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and warehouse receipts and positions of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - **Important News**: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - **Important News**: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - **Important News**: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - **Important News**: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - **Important News**: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - **Important News**: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - **Important News**: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided. - **Important News**: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - **Important News**: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals released on September 15, 2025, covering multiple non - ferrous metal varieties including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall macro - environment shows that the market has increased expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year due to factors such as the US CPI in August and weak non - farm payroll data. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper supply is tight, while alumina is in an oversupply situation. [8] Group 4: Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 1,572 lots to 520,900 lots. The spot market showed weakening procurement sentiment, with different regions having different changes in spot premiums. [2] Key Information - As of September 15, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 tons to 15.42 tons. The planned merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources may create the world's largest copper mine in the early 2030s. China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The average export benchmark price of copper concentrate in Indonesia in the second half of September increased by 2.29% compared to the first half. [3][4][5] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, copper supply is tight due to production accidents and policies, and consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. [8] Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider laying out long positions after a pull - back and pay attention to the support level of $10,000/ton. Hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions and stay on the sidelines for options. [8] Group 5: Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2601 contract rose by 13 yuan to 2,935 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [10] Key Information - India postponed the approval of an alumina project, which may delay the second - phase project of a factory. The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased, and the industry average profit increased. The national alumina production capacity and inventory situation changed. [11][12][14] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply and demand remain in an oversupply situation, with a weak fundamental trend, but beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices. [15] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading is expected to continue the weak operation pattern. Stay on the sidelines for both arbitrage and options trading. [16][17] Group 6: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose by 5 yuan to 21,025 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [19] Key Information - From January to August, real estate development data showed a decline. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments. [19][21] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts, and overseas and domestic fundamentals support the price. Although there may be short - term inventory fluctuations, the annual supply - demand shortage pattern remains. [22] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and continue to be bullish on pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [23][24] Group 7: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 25 to 20,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions increased. [26] Key Information - The policy of standardizing investment promotion affects the recycled aluminum industry, with some regions having more obvious impacts. The weighted average full cost of the ADC12 industry increased, and the theoretical profit expanded. The exchange will start the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures. [26][29][30] Logic Analysis - The policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and downstream demand is increasing. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and strong. [31] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Follow the upward trend of aluminum prices, and be bullish after pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [32][33] Group 8: Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.13% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1,484 lots to 221,800 lots. The spot market had stable quotes and weak downstream demand. [35] Key Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and Peru's zinc concentrate production in July 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. [36] Logic Analysis - In September, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and consumption is weak. Overseas, LME inventory is decreasing, which supports the LME zinc price. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may rise. [39] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, and consider laying out short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [40] Group 9: Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2510 rose 1.15% to 17,160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 3,021 lots to 91,400 lots. The spot market had different trading situations. [42] Key Information - Domestic lead ingot inventory increased, and the price of imported lead ore was at a loss. Some domestic smelters may advance winter storage plans. [43][44] Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelters are reducing production due to losses, and downstream pre - holiday stocking may support prices. However, if the lead ingot import window opens, prices may fall. [45] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The Shanghai lead price is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of price drops after the inflow of imported lead ingots. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [47] Group 10: Nickel Market Review - The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2510 rose 1,390 to 122,580 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 690 lots. Spot premiums changed slightly. [49] Key Information - The land seizure incident in Indonesia had no major impact on nickel production. Vale Indonesia is in talks for three nickel smelter projects, and Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is ramping up. [50] Logic Analysis - The market is concerned about the interest rate cut amplitude. Although it is the peak demand season, supply also increases, and LME inventory is rising, putting pressure on prices. [51] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [53] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2511 contract rose 155 to 13,070 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,671 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given. [55] Key Information - Many stainless steel enterprises are carrying out low - carbon emission transformation, and global green trade rules are being reconstructed. [56] Logic Analysis - Macro - factors and the rise in nickel prices support stainless steel prices. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [56] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [57][58] Group 12: Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan/ton or 0.41%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the terminal consumption situation was different in different industries. [60] Key Information - China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. Indonesia's refined tin export volume in August decreased by 49% year - on - year. [61][62] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Tin ore supply is tight, and demand may be postponed. LME and domestic inventories are increasing. [63] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the increase in inventory restricts the upward space. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [64] Group 13: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 0.86% to 8,800 yuan/ton after an intraday high - low fluctuation. Spot prices in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable. [65][66] Key Information - An important article will be published emphasizing the construction of a unified national market. The production and inventory data of industrial silicon and its downstream products are given. [67][69] Logic Analysis - As leading manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon will change from tight balance to slight surplus. Although the price may pull back, the cost increase and low inventory will limit the decline. [69] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Buy on pull - backs. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options after a pull - back. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11 and 12 contracts. [70] Group 14: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices had a certain range. [71] Key Information - The same important article about the unified national market construction is mentioned. The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are short - term multi - empty factors. [72] Logic Analysis - The long - term price of polysilicon is likely to rise, but in the short term, there are factors such as the cancellation of 11 - contract warehouse receipts that may cause a deep pull - back. [74] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Fluctuate in the short term and buy on pull - backs in the medium - to - long term. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Hold sold out - of - the - money put options. [75] Group 15: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract rose 1,640 to 72,680 yuan/ton, the index reduced positions by 652 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 338 to 38,963 tons. Spot prices remained stable. [76] Key Information - The Ministry of Commerce promotes automobile consumption, and Zijin Mining's lithium project in Argentina is put into production. The Brazilian federal prosecutor's office requires the review of lithium mining licenses. [77][78] Logic Analysis - The overall atmosphere is optimistic with the Fed's possible interest rate cut. Although demand is strong, long - term supply is also increasing, and prices need to fluctuate and consolidate. [81] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [82][83] Group 16: Price and Related Data - Multiple tables show the daily data of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, industry profits, and inventory data from September 9 to September 15, 2025, as well as the comparison with the previous weekend and the end of the previous month. [85][86][87] Group 17: Charts - There are many charts showing the historical trends of various indicators of non - ferrous metals such as spot premiums, term structures, import and export profits, and inventory, providing visual references for price analysis. [96][100][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure. Although the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, the downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely due to the oversupply of alumina, and the consumption increment is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to rise, adding pressure to the market. Attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/5 | 2025/9/12 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3006 | 2914 | -92 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3166 | 3099 | -67 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 202 | 224 | 22 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 355 | 333 | -22 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -1.30 | 123 | 124.3 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 112306 | 138692 | 26386 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 3.06% last week, closing at 2914 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market was reported at 3099 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In the bauxite market, the overall supply of domestic ores remains severe. The regular inspections and the slow resumption of closed mines have kept the operating rate of inland mines low, with limited spot circulation in the market, which supports the price. The inventory of imported ores at Chinese ports has started to decline, but the overall supply of imported ores in China is still slightly excessive. Enterprises will continue to make purchases based on rigid demand in the short term, and the differences in price views between supply and demand sides will lead to continued price competition in the market [5]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina enterprises in the north that were affected by environmental protection measures and reduced production have slightly increased production this week. As of September 11, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [5]. - On the consumption side, last week, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, while other electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable production. Overall, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable compared with the previous week, and the demand for alumina did not change significantly [5]. - In terms of inventory, the warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 11,000 tons last Friday, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [2][5][7]. Market Outlook - The Chinese bauxite market showed no significant changes last week. The interaction of multiple bullish and bearish factors led to no substantial adjustment in prices. On the supply side, some previously shut - down production capacities resumed operation last week, resulting in a slight increase in operating capacity. On the consumption side, the procurement activity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. However, due to the oversupply of alumina, downstream buyers are pressing down prices severely, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand replenishment, with limited consumption increment. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 11,000 tons during the week, reaching 139,000 tons, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level, and considering the current weighted average cost of alumina, there is still some profit. It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will remain high in the future. The consumption side remains stable, and with sufficient supply, buyers have a strong mindset of pressing down prices. The rising warehouse receipt inventory also adds pressure, so alumina will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to the cost support of alumina [2][7]. Industry News - Vedanta announced an investment of over 125 billion rupees to enhance its metal manufacturing capabilities, aiming to strengthen the domestic supply of key materials necessary for electric vehicle production to meet the needs of India's rapidly growing electric vehicle (EV) industry and contribute to India's vision of sustainable and clean transportation. The investment involves expanding the aluminum smelting business, increasing the added value of aluminum products, building a new zinc alloy factory, installing a zinc roasting furnace, and expanding the ferrochrome production capacity [8]. - Jiaokou County Wangzhuang Pig Iron Co., Ltd. won the exploration right of the Fengjiagang block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with the highest bid of 3.1728 billion yuan [8]. - Metro Mining's operating data for August 2025 showed that the shipment volume of its Queensland bauxite mine project increased by 6% year - on - year to 753,101 wet tons. As of now, Metro Mining's total bauxite shipment volume has reached 3.4 million wet tons, and its target shipment volume for 2025 is 6.5 - 7 million wet tons [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to rise, and the import window has opened. Domestic alumina supply is increasing due to复产 and new - capacity releases, leading to a growing supply surplus. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In the north, strict inspections in Henan and policy - related impacts in Shanxi limited ore production. Frequent rainfall also reduced ore output. Imported ore prices were stable, and the shipping volume is expected to increase in October. Newly - arrived ore was 3.406 million tons this period, including 2.272 million tons from Guinea and 1.055 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $23.5 per ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined last week. The import window opened due to large - scale tenders from downstream aluminum plants, and market sentiment was bearish. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton. The national alumina production capacity in operation increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.1% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of Yunnan Honghe New Materials Co., Ltd. increased by 20,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 20,000 tons to 44.163 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged [13] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. Alumina enterprise inventory remained low, and port inventory increased significantly [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 32,435 tons to 138,692 tons. The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillating, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Import Cost**: As of September 11, the Australian alumina quotation was about $336 per ton, down $18.5 from the previous week. The theoretical import profit was 44 yuan per ton [15] - **Transaction in Western Australia**: On September 11, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of $340 per ton, down $10 from the previous deal [15] - **Ore Use in Shanxi**: Due to poor domestic ore acquisition in Shanxi, some alumina enterprises increased the use of imported ore. One alumina plant restored its operating capacity from 1 million tons to 1.4 million tons [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][25][27] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [32][36][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: This part contains data on electrolytic aluminum plant and alumina plant alumina inventories, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity of warehouse receipts and open interest of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [42][45][48]

其中铝土矿方面，8月，国产铝土矿价格基本持稳，但进口矿价格略有下降，氧化铝生产矿石成本下降 32元／吨。 安泰科铝研究团队12日发布报告称，根据安泰科测算，2025年8月国内氧化铝加权平均完全成本（含 税）为2889元／吨，环比下降3元／吨，同比增加6元／吨。同期，氧化铝现货价格重心上移至3263元／ 吨，环比上涨68元或2.1%。8月氧化铝行业平均利润为374元／吨，是今年2月以来的最高值。8月国内 氧化铝开工产能9460万吨／年，开工率83.1%，环比上升0.6个百分点。 从原材料价格来看，8月份氧化铝生产成本中三大原材料价格涨跌不一，铝土矿价格小幅下降，烧碱价 格基本持稳，能源价格小幅上行，氧化铝生产成本略有降低。 煤炭方面，8月，动力煤价格继续上涨，高温天气、库存下降等多重因素共同推动煤价走高，氧化铝生 产能源成本增加28元／吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 烧碱方面，8月液碱市场货源整体供应充足，且下游需求有所增加，液碱价格走势平稳，氧化铝生产烧 碱成本较上月持平。 ...