Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 有色金属日报 2025-12-29 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 周五 LME 休市，供应端扰动消息和贵金属上涨推动下铜价继续走强，沪铜历史性突破 10 万关口，主 力合约收涨至 101380 元/吨。上期所铜周度库存增 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿石长单价格下跌，政策利好氧化铝底部反弹 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格变动不大，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 698 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 620 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿 的到厂含税价格维持 590 元/吨。山西、河南、贵州、广西等主 产区在推进矿业整顿，国产矿供应在短期内难以实现质与量的显 著提升。进口方面，几内亚大型矿企 2026 年一季度长单报价 （FOB+海运费，FOB 报价 42 美元/干吨，上一季度为 47 美元/ 干吨）为 66.5 美元/干吨，价格下调幅度明显多于预期。顺达及 中水电方面目前已恢复生产。GIC 已向几内亚政府缴纳部分保证 金，高顶方面正在与 GIC 协商新的承包协议及承包价格，预计 元旦前后可恢复生产。期内新到矿石 477.9 万吨，其中新到几内 亚资源 391.7 万吨，澳大利亚资源 52.9 万吨。几内亚至中国的 Cape 船市场参考报价 24 美元/吨。 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方综合 价格在 2600-2670 元/吨，较上周跌 90 元/吨；国产 ...

() 国泰君安期货 GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 氧化铝: 磨底阶段 "反内卷" 行情再来? 发布时间: 2025年12月26日 氧化铝 今日国家发展改革委产业发展司发布文章《大力推 动传统产业优化提升》，文章指出，对氧化铝、铜冶炼 等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局； 完善重大项目论证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家 产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建设;并鼓励大型 骨干企业实施兼并重组，提升规模化、集团化水平，提 高产业竞争力。该消息发布后，AO盘面主力及多个合 约一度涨停。 AO此前持续跌落,核心的下跌推手始终来自于基 本面迟迟未能供给调节而导致过剩及累库压力持续，且 市场对于明年矿端增量预期强烈，矿价若大跌亦将持续 拖累AO盘面定价。而对价格形成反向掣肘的则是，盘 面累积空头的持续时间过长，或也在令交易因素的扰动 增多，一旦出现意外风险引发连锁平仓，AO就容易跟 随一众空配品种异动反弹。交易层面看，氧化铝价格越 到低位，低价位的资金博弈就越趋重，价格波动弹性也 可能随之放大。不过，我们仍倾向认为氧化铝市场的转 势终究需要依赖供给端的显著出清和供需再平衡。 如果考虑盘面2400一 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20251226】【氧化铝年报】釜中之鱼 核心观点 2.月间：跟随仓单注册、注销周期，阶段性布局正套、反套头寸； 3.期权：盘面击穿成本后分批布局虚值卖看跌期权，同时关注盘面短期炒作带来的高位卖看涨机 会。 短期：跌到何时为止？ 氧化铝期货不只有现货的成本定价逻辑 对于过剩品种，如何判断底部位置？市场共识是遵循成本定价原则。但期货不是现货，除了成本 逻辑之外，还有仓单逻辑。 回顾历史，氧化铝的基差收敛主要通过两种路径实现：一是期现货价格双向靠拢，例如2025年5月 至7月的"反内卷"时期，下行现货与情绪驱动的上行盘面共同拉近基差；二是同方向变化，但其中 一个加速收敛。如2024年12月至2025年2月，期货现货双跌，盘面跌幅远超现货，以快速下跌完成 收敛。 当前盘面价格甚至已经Price in几内亚矿价65美金/吨对应的边际成本，市场疑惑盘面何时彻底反 转？当前盘面的底部已经不是交易"矿价跌到多少"，而是交易"仓单何时消化完毕"。我们应注 意，仓单时隔大半年再次来历史高位区间，此时成本逻辑暂时退居其次，仓单逻辑开始主导盘面 定价。当前盘面基差来到高位区 ...

中原期货：近期期货市场出现一定技术性反弹，主要受到短期资金情绪变化与宏观技术面支撑的共同影响。整体来看，氧化铝基本面维持过剩格 局，中期或延续偏弱运行。 12月26日，氧化铝期货逐渐有所企稳，主力合约一度拉至涨停，现报2787.0元/吨，涨幅5.37%。 截至本周四，全国冶金级氧化铝建成总产能11032万吨/年，运行总产能8808.5万吨/年，全国氧化铝周度开工率环比持平在79.85%，国内氧化铝厂 维持高位运行。 【消息面汇总】 截至本周四(12月25日)全国氧化铝库存量为477.3万吨，较上周增9.3万吨。 机构观点 国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》。文章指出，对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。完善重大 项目论证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建设。 瑞达期货（002961）：供给方面，由于氧化铝价已跌破理论成本线，利润侵蚀的影响下，国内产能及开工或有小幅回落，未来利润倒挂情况若持 续，大面积减产现象发生可能性增大。需求方面，电解铝厂在产产能基本持稳，已临近行业上限，对氧化铝需求亦保持稳定态势。整体来看，氧 化铝基本面或处于供给偏多、 ...

对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。"十五五"时期，要坚持全国一 盘棋，立足各地区产业基础、资源禀赋、环境承载力的客观差异，构建因地制宜、突出特色的生产力空 间布局。完善重大项目论证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建 设。鼓励大型骨干企业实施兼并重组，提升规模化、集团化水平，提高产业竞争力。加力支持骨干企业 技术攻研，提升全产业链技术优势。推进新一轮找矿突破战略行动，优化海外矿产资源勘查开发合作。 完善回收利用体系，分品类推动废弃物循环利用。 对轻工、纺织等量大面广的产业，关键在于降本扩量、提质增效。"十五五"时期，要加快产品创新，丰 富产品品类和供给特色，实现增品种、提品质、创品牌。支持企业开展设备更新和技术改造，加快应用 先进适用技术，推动数字化转型和绿色化升级，持续降本增效。开展重点消费品质量提升行动，提升强 制性产品能效标准和安全标准，保障强制性国家标准"红底线"作用发挥，强化质量支撑和标准引领。推 进品牌建设，高质量办好中国品牌日活动，持续开展品牌创建和宣传引导，提升中国品牌知名度和影响 力。完善产业在国内梯度有序转移的协作机制，引导轻工、 ...

央视网消息：据国家发展改革委微信公众号消息，国家发展改革委产业发展司发表《大力推动传统产业 优化提升》。文章提到，对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。强资 源约束型产业是国民经济的基础性产业，在经济建设、国防建设等诸多领域具有重要作用。一段时间以 来，各地发展氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业意愿强烈。"十五五"时期，要坚持全国一盘棋，立足 各地区产业基础、资源禀赋、环境承载力的客观差异，构建因地制宜、突出特色的生产力空间布局。完 善重大项目论证机制，推动地方论证前主动对接国家产业调控要求，防止盲目投资和无序建设。鼓励大 型骨干企业实施兼并重组，提升规模化、集团化水平，提高产业竞争力。加力支持骨干企业技术攻研， 提升全产业链技术优势。推进新一轮找矿突破战略行动，优化海外矿产资源勘查开发合作。完善回收利 用体系，分品类推动废弃物循环利用。 ...

对新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏等"新三样"产业，关键在于规范秩序、创新引领。"新三样"产业是我国在 激烈市场竞争下培育出的优势产业，是我国外贸高质量发展的新引擎，在全球绿色产业变革中彰显了中 国力量，但也面临市场竞争失序、核心优势还不牢固等问题挑战。"十五五"时期，要综合整治"内卷 式"竞争，维护公平竞争环境，提高行业集中度，打造全球技术领先高地。规范市场竞争秩序，深入实 施公平竞争审查制度，加强价格监测、质量检查，防止低价无序竞争。加强供应链治理，保障中小企业 款项支付，营造行业互利共赢良好生态。加大技术创新力度，巩固技术领先优势。加强宏观调控，坚持 用市场化、法治化手段推动落后低效产能退出。强化行业自律，发挥行业协会作用，引导企业培育差异 化竞争优势，弘扬企业家精神。 大力推动传统产业优化提升 对新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏等"新三样"产业，关键在于规范秩序、创新引领。 12月26日，国家发展改革委产业发展司发表题为《大力推动传统产业优化提升》的文章指出，对钢铁、 石化等原材料产业，关键在于平衡供需、优化结构。原材料行业是我国国民经济的重要基础产业和支柱 产业。当前，钢铁、石化等原材料行业普遍面临供需动态性平衡不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].