1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a slight increase in price while the trading volume has decreased significantly [1][2] - As of February 4, the main aluminum oxide contract closed at 2824 yuan, up by 14 yuan, reflecting a 0.50% increase, while the total trading volume decreased by 42.84% to 451,663 contracts [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2680-2730 yuan per ton, East China between 2600-2640 yuan, Southwest between 2715-2755 yuan, and Northwest between 2870-2910 yuan, all unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, previous production cuts have been in effect for a week, leading to a reduced rate of inventory accumulation, although warehouse stock increased by 7,199 tons to 189,000 tons, which may limit the rebound potential of aluminum oxide futures prices [2] - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has turned dull, with cautious buying from downstream sectors due to high prices, and some companies entering holiday mode, resulting in decreased replenishment demand [2] - It is anticipated that production cuts during the Spring Festival will provide some support for aluminum oxide prices, but post-holiday, new production capacity and cost pressures may lead to significant resistance against price rebounds, with expectations of low-level fluctuations prevailing [2]

Copper - Copper prices have stabilized slightly overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining an import window closure status [3][13] - The US ISM manufacturing index for January rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February 2022, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [3][13] - China's January manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][13] - LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 174,675 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons to 525,967 tons [3][13] - The market is facing short-term price pressure due to weak fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival, with potential support testing in the range of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [3][13] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.91% to $17,045 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.83% to 132,670 yuan per ton [14][15] - LME inventory decreased by 756 tons to 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 302 tons to 46,574 tons [14][15] - Despite market sentiment dragging prices down, there are concerns about tight resource supply, which may support boundary costs [14][15] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - The price of alumina showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [16] - SHFE aluminum experienced a decline, with AL2603 closing at 23,520 yuan per ton, down 2.12% [16] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disturbances, causing inventory to gradually accumulate [16] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,795 yuan per ton, down 1.18% [17] - Polysilicon prices also fell, with the main contract closing at 47,050 yuan per ton, down 1.66% [17] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, impacting overall supply [17] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures dropped to 132,440 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices falling by 7,500 yuan to 160,500 yuan per ton [18] - Weekly production decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [18] - The market sentiment is currently negative, with prices under pressure, but strategic stocking demand from downstream may provide some support [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downturn, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply dynamics [2]. - On February 2, the main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2772 yuan, down 17 yuan, a decrease of 0.61% [1]. - The total trading volume for 13 contracts was 1,080,856 lots, a decrease of 6,224 lots from the previous trading day, with an overall decline of 0.57% [1]. Group 2 - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable, with prices in various regions reported as follows: South China at 2680-2730 yuan per ton, East China at 2600-2640 yuan per ton, Southwest at 2715-2755 yuan per ton, and Northwest at 2870-2910 yuan per ton, all unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Recent production cuts in aluminum oxide plants in Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have provided some support to futures prices, despite an overall surplus in the market [2]. - The price of bauxite, a key raw material, continues to decline, and expectations for lower import prices are contributing to a loosening of prices, maintaining pressure on aluminum oxide prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In January, affected by the low - price area in Shandong, the prices of caustic soda in surrounding provinces and cities declined. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong in January was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In February, the supply - demand contradiction of domestic caustic soda remained prominent. It was expected that the caustic soda price would run weakly before the Spring Festival [3]. - **PVC**: In January, the supply - demand pattern of PVC was weak. The price increase was mainly due to policy stimulus. In February, the PVC industry faced the pressure of pre - Spring Festival shipments. The price was expected to maintain a weak bottom - shock in the first half of the month and gradually stabilize in the second half [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price**: In January, the average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In Jiangsu, it was 771.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.38% [3]. - **Supply**: In January, the caustic soda production was 379.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. The inventory in East China and Shandong decreased [24]. - **Demand**: In February, non - aluminum demand slowed down during the Spring Festival. Although the demand for alumina was relatively stable, it could not substantially support the demand for caustic soda [3]. - **Export**: In December 2025, the import volume of liquid caustic soda was 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. The export volume was 30.96 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [49]. PVC - **Price**: In January, the PVC price was mainly driven by policy stimulus. In February, the price was expected to have limited increase, with a weak bottom - shock in the first half and a potential stabilization in the second half [3]. - **Supply**: In January, the PVC production was estimated to be 214.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.98%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [68]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. The real - estate sector continued to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand did not improve significantly [73]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [81]. - **Export**: In December 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.07% and a year - on - year increase of 35.02%. The import volume was 2.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.14% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99% [97].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that aluminum oxide futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract rising by 3.27% to 2811 yuan, while the trading volume increased significantly by 112.12% compared to the previous trading day [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable across various regions, with prices in South China reported between 2680-2730 yuan per ton, East China between 2600-2640 yuan, Southwest between 2715-2755 yuan, and Northwest between 2870-2910 yuan, all unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The macroeconomic context includes a decline in the US consumer confidence index to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, which has influenced the dollar index to drop over 1% to 95.566, positively impacting the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 2 - On the fundamental side, the aluminum oxide production capacity that was previously announced for maintenance is gradually entering the maintenance period, leading some companies to resume production, which has alleviated supply pressure [2] - The raw material side has seen an increase in shipments from new mines in Guinea, putting downward pressure on import prices, while the cost side has been affected by a decline in caustic soda prices, weakening cost support for aluminum oxide [2] - The current market shows that traders are eager to sell, and there is a phenomenon of downstream markets replenishing stocks, although the overall trading atmosphere has cooled as the demand for replenishment has become saturated [2]

长江有色网1月26日讯，今日氧化铝震荡剧烈，主力月2605合约现宽幅震荡态势，盘面波动剧烈；截止 当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2732元，收涨10元，涨幅0.37%；5个合约累计成交693294 手，比前一交易日增加181498手，涨幅35.46%；持仓量678,730手减少38,082手，跌幅5.31%。 今日国内氧化铝现货价格部分下跌；据长江有色网ccmn数据，1月26日氧化铝华南地区每吨报2680-2730 元之间，与前一交易日报价跌10元；华东地区氧化铝每吨报2600-2640元之间，与前一交易日报价持 平；西南地区氧化铝每吨2715-2755元之间，与前一交易日报价跌10元；西北地区氧化铝每吨报2870- 2910元之间，与前一交易日报价持平。 基本面方面，海外传消息，力拓计划自今年10月起将澳大利亚Yarwun氧化铝精炼厂产量削减40%，涉及 产能120万吨，该消息对氧化铝期货价格走势构成一定提振。原料端，几内亚新矿发运量边际增长，进 口矿价格承压；国内北方铝土矿复产，且远期有新矿投产预期，国产矿供应预计增加。成本端，烧碱价 格持续下滑，削弱了氧化铝的成本支撑。供应端，国内山西、 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

Group 1: Market Performance - The main aluminum oxide futures contract (2605) closed at 2724 yuan, up 26 yuan, with a gain of 0.96% [1] - Total trading volume for 18 contracts was 511,796 lots, a decrease of 120,562 lots or 19.07% from the previous trading day [1] - Open interest increased by 7,615 lots to 716,812 lots, reflecting a rise of 1.07% [1] Group 2: Domestic Prices - Domestic aluminum oxide spot prices remained stable, with prices in various regions reported as follows: - South China: 2690-2740 yuan per ton - East China: 2600-2640 yuan per ton - Southwest: 2725-2765 yuan per ton - Northwest: 2870-2890 yuan per ton All prices were unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Group 3: Macro Environment - U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, while initial jobless claims slightly increased to 200,000, indicating a stable economic outlook that boosts investor confidence [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's continued accommodative policies are expected to support non-ferrous metal prices [2] - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with seven other departments, released a growth plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting a 1.5% production growth rate while emphasizing energy consumption and environmental constraints [2] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Rio Tinto plans to reduce production at its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% starting in October to extend the facility's operational life until 2035, which is expected to support alumina futures prices [3] - Domestic bauxite supply is anticipated to increase due to the resumption of production in northern regions and expectations of new mines coming online [3] - The cost of caustic soda is declining, which weakens cost support for alumina [3] - The overall market remains characterized by oversupply, with limited demand growth from electrolytic aluminum production due to capacity constraints [3]

长江有色网1月21日讯，今日氧化铝跌势为继，主力月2605合约延续疲软走势；截止当日15：00收盘， 氧化铝主力月2605合约报2672元，收跌19元，跌幅0.71%；9个合约累计成交416012手，比前一交易日 减少203456手，跌幅32.84%；持仓量705,708手减少16,291手，跌幅2.26%。 基本面方面，原料端，几内亚新投产及复产矿山已在本月开始发运，虽短期增量有限，但海漂量渐增将 施压进口矿价格；烧碱价格下行，氧化铝成本支撑预期下移。供应端，国内氧化铝增减产变动并存，山 西检修产能复产，贵州及广西有检修计划但影响有限，在产产能后续开工以短期检修为主，运行产能仍 处高位。消费端，下游电解铝运行产能微增，对氧化铝需求提振不足，交易所仓单因前期利润快速累 库，压制价格。现货市场，持货商担忧价格下跌加速出货回笼资金，下游企业谨慎观望，入市询价冷 清，多刚需补货，今日交投活跃度欠佳、成交量受限。 综合来看，氧化铝供应过剩难改，库存仓单攀升，成本支撑下移，短期将延续偏弱运行。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日国内氧化铝现 ...