这些变化之所以重要，是因为它们使跨国企业的商品和服务更贴合中国消费者的实际喜好。如今，这一 经验的适用范畴正在向快餐市场以外的领域延伸。从体育商品零售到医疗设备，全球企业都在努力应对 同样的问题：如何在本土企业快速发展、消费者需求不断变化的中国市场中竞争。 美国"市场观察"网站12月23日文章，原题：中国一直对西方消费品牌保持开放态度，而西方品牌对中国 消费者的了解，还有很多需要学习的地方 多年来，跨国品牌将中国视为只需投入时间和扩大规模就能 为其带来丰厚利润的增长引擎。这些品牌曾认为，在中国开设更多门店、扩大覆盖范围和提高品牌知名 度即可奏效。但如今，这种假设正在悄然瓦解。 在零售、食品和消费服务领域，全球企业正发现跟不上中国消费者的速度。中国消费者价格敏感度增 强、品味日趋本土化，而且本土竞争对手学会快速迭代。结果是，外国品牌由于未能适应竞争激烈的中 国市场而败下阵来。 这种转变有助于解释为何越来越多的跨国企业正在重新评估其在华运营方式，业内人士认为，中国消费 者越来越青睐那些能更快调整价格和产品，并开展促销活动的本地运营商。这种趋势不仅在咖啡行业尤 为鲜明，便利店行业也是如此。中国本土便利店品牌已经悄然 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that the A-share market typically exhibits a balanced style from December to January, with large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles being relatively dominant. This is influenced by expectations of strengthened growth policies and the preferences of major institutional investors for large-cap and dividend styles as the year ends and begins [1][4]. Market Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, the market style shifts towards small-cap and technology growth sectors, driven by liquidity and risk appetite [1][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high prosperity sectors for investment, particularly those with a projected net profit growth rate exceeding 30% in 2026, including AI industry trends, advantageous manufacturing, "anti-involution," and structural recovery in domestic demand [1][20]. High Prosperity Sectors - **AI Industry Trends**: Focus on hardware (communication equipment, components, semiconductor industry chain, consumer electronics) and software applications (IT services, software development, gaming, advertising) [1][20]. - **Advantageous Manufacturing**: Includes the new energy industry chain (lithium batteries, lithium mines, wind power equipment, new energy vehicles), military industry (ground equipment, aerospace equipment, military electronics), machinery (robots, machine tools), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs) [1][20]. - **"Anti-Involution"**: Covers sectors such as steel, building materials (cement, glass fiber, renovation materials, plastics), chemicals (chemical raw materials, chemical fibers, rubber), new energy (photovoltaics, silicon materials), and aviation airports [2][20]. - **Structural Recovery in Domestic Demand**: Encompasses service consumption (film and television, education, retail, e-commerce, hotel catering, tourism, hospitals), new consumption (snack foods, cultural and entertainment products), and home textiles [3][20]. Market Conditions and Signals - The report notes that the recent increase in market volatility reflects a series of significant domestic and international events impacting liquidity and fundamental expectations. The conclusion of the policy verification window is expected to provide a solid foundation for a potential market rally [4][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that market rallies often begin following the resolution of uncertainty, the implementation of easing policies, or the validation of positive economic data [9][18]. Investment Strategy - The report advises focusing on sectors that benefit from the current favorable conditions, including cyclical sectors and those aligned with domestic recovery trends. The emphasis is on sectors that are likely to experience valuation recovery due to supportive policies and improving economic fundamentals [19][23]. - Technology growth is highlighted as a critical driver for the upcoming market rally, with a favorable environment for investments in technology sectors as liquidity expectations improve [25].

扬子晚报网12月21日讯（记者 范晓林 薄云峰）2026年新年将至，2025年港股市场强势回暖成为香港股市的一抹亮色。 | | | 宁德时代 300750 创 融 通 √ | | | | + Q 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 374.00 | +2.00 | +0.54% | | | | | | 行业 | 电气设备 +0.82% | > | 製金 | | 创 50ETF +0.55% > | | | 今开 | 374.08 | 最高 | 377.68 | 成交量 | | 17.56万 | | 昨收 | 372.00 | 最低 | 370.80 | 成交额 | | 65.73亿 | | 市值 1 1.71万亿 换手 | | | 0.41% | 产周 ! IVI | | 26.76 | | | 闭市阶段 | 盘后量 | | 5 营后额 | | 18.70万 | | H BS | 505.000 +2.23% | | | | 溢价率(H/A): +23.67% > | | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 間K | 月K | 周期 | 0 | | ...

住建部"收购存量房转保障房"政策引发连锁反应。中指研究院数据显示，6500亿元专项债已瞄准闲置土地收储，这既为商品房市场腾挪出改善型需求空间， 又通过保障房供应激活中低收入群体消费能力。深圳公积金支付首付、山东商办房"以旧换新"等创新模式，正在构建"市场+保障"的双轮驱动格局。当新市 民能以更低门槛安家，消费升级的自然传导链就形成了。 当青岛港提前15天突破7亿吨货物吞吐量，当中国外贸顺差历史性站上1万亿美元高点，中央经济工作会议却将"内需主导"列为2026年首要任务。这看似矛盾 的决策背后，藏着中国经济转型的深层密码。 外贸高增长下的隐忧：顺差破万亿难掩结构失衡 前11个月41.21万亿元的进出口总额中，藏着两个关键数字：对美出口下降18.9%的897.6亿美元缺口，被对东盟多出的723.76亿美元和对欧增长的384亿美元 精准填补。中国国际经济交流中心研究员张茉楠指出，这种"东方不亮西方亮"的贸易格局，正是2018年以来市场多元化战略的成果。但民营企业贡献的 23.52万亿元进出口额中，超七成锂电池、近六成医疗器械的硬核出口数据，反而暴露出内需市场的短板——高端产能过度依赖外需。 消费引擎的53.5%贡献 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes and future directions of China's economic policies as outlined in the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the resilience and potential of the economy despite existing challenges [2][3]. Economic Performance and Outlook - The expected economic growth for 2025 is around 5%, with a total economic output projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [2]. - Employment remains stable, and foreign trade is expected to grow rapidly, with significant diversification in exports [2]. - The construction of a modern industrial system is progressing, with advancements in technology and innovation, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [2]. - Reforms and opening-up measures are advancing, with a focus on building a unified national market and addressing "involution" in competition [2]. - Risk mitigation in key areas has shown positive progress, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [2]. Challenges and Responses - The article highlights ongoing challenges such as external environmental changes, weak domestic demand, and risks in key sectors [3]. - Despite these challenges, the long-term supportive conditions for economic growth remain unchanged, including the advantages of the socialist system and a large market [3]. Macroeconomic Policies - The government plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support economic recovery [5][8]. - Fiscal policy will focus on maintaining necessary deficits and debt levels while enhancing the precision and effectiveness of spending [6][7]. - Monetary policy will aim to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity [8]. Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment [9][10]. - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth reached 71% in the first three quarters of the year [9]. - Strategies will include enhancing consumer purchasing power and promoting new consumption patterns, particularly in services [9][10]. Regional Development and Coordination - The article outlines plans for regional coordination and development, emphasizing the importance of balanced growth across different areas [18][19]. - Support for major economic provinces is highlighted, with a focus on innovation and the development of new industries [20]. Green Transition and Employment - The government is committed to a comprehensive green transition, with specific measures to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals [21][22]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability and quality, with targeted support for key groups such as graduates and migrant workers [23][24][25]. Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on meeting both rigid and improvement housing demands [26][27][28]. - Measures will include encouraging the transformation of real estate companies and promoting a new development model for the sector [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration have jointly issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance, aiming to boost consumption through targeted policies and measures [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notice outlines three main areas and eleven specific policy measures to strengthen the synergy between commerce and finance [1]. - The first area focuses on deepening collaboration between the commerce and finance systems, encouraging local departments to improve communication and cooperation mechanisms, and detailing implementation guidelines [1]. - The second area emphasizes increasing financial support in key consumption sectors, urging financial institutions to optimize products and services to better align with consumer needs and promote new consumption models [1]. - The third area aims to expand cooperation among government, financial institutions, and enterprises, promoting diverse consumption activities and ensuring effective policy implementation [1]. Group 2: Implementation and Monitoring - The notice stresses the importance of coordinated efforts, policy alignment, and leveraging strengths among departments to effectively stimulate consumption [2]. - It encourages local departments and financial institutions to refine financial support measures based on actual conditions to unlock consumption potential [2]. - There is a call for ongoing tracking and guidance, with an emphasis on sharing progress and promoting successful practices [2].

此外，在支持国际航空枢纽建设和低空经济发展方面，杭州明确支持新开至全球国际枢纽、共 建"一带一路"国家、金砖国家等方向国际航线，拓展跨境电商涉磁、电、液等敏感货物便利化运输试点 范围；持续发挥市级政策和30亿元规模的低空产业基金作用，重点支持低空装备研制、核心技术攻关、 企业适航取证、低空航线运行，探索新型应用场景，加快低空产业补链强链。 围绕优化人才引育，杭州计划深入实施"西湖明珠"工程，大力引进人工智能、视觉智能、集成电路 等领域顶尖人才，并深化"企业认定、政府认账"，加大对重点产业领域和新兴科技企业人才授权认定支 持，特别是加大人工智能、集成电路企业人才认定专项授权力度。 推进服务业高质量发展方面，征求意见稿提出加快消费新模式新场景培育，省市县联动发放商超、 餐饮、演赛展联动等消费券，带动商品消费与展会、赛事、演唱会联动促消费；计划举办国家级及以上 体育赛事75 场，各级各类赛事活动2000场以上；举办大型营业性演出不少于100场。 为推动经济向新向好，《关于推动经济高质量发展的若干政策（2026年版）（征求意见稿）》（以 下简称"征求意见稿"）近日在市发展改革委网站公示，并向社会公开征求意见建议，大家 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic policies and their implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on the real estate market, investment strategies, and monetary and fiscal policies in China. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Policy Shift**: The central economic work conference emphasizes a transition from extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments to normalized management, focusing on cross-cycle adjustments, indicating a paradigm shift in policy [1][9]. 2. **Real Estate Market Measures**: Specific measures for the real estate market include controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving supply quality. The reform of the housing provident fund system is highlighted, aiming to stabilize the market [1][3][4]. 3. **Investment Focus**: The conference stresses the need to stabilize investment, particularly in infrastructure projects, urban renewal, and quality housing construction, to counteract the decline in investment growth [1][2][7]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: While the possibility of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions is mentioned, the emphasis is on flexible and efficient application, suggesting limited room for significant cuts [1][6][10]. 5. **Fiscal Policy Projections**: Fiscal policy is expected to maintain necessary deficits, with a projected increase in fiscal spending of 6% to 7% in 2025, primarily to support infrastructure and consumption [1][2][5]. 6. **Future Demand Drivers**: Potential demand growth is anticipated in real estate, infrastructure, urban renewal, service industry openings, high-end service exports, manufacturing exports, and consumer spending [1][7]. 7. **Economic Work Background for 2026**: The economic work for 2026 is based on a long-term positive outlook, despite external challenges and domestic supply-demand conflicts, emphasizing the importance of tapping into economic potential [1][8]. 8. **Supply-Side Structural Reforms**: The focus on supply-side structural reforms is reiterated, aiming to optimize supply and activate existing resources, indicating a strategic shift from previous years [1][11]. 9. **Risk Prevention Measures**: Risk prevention priorities have shifted, with a reduced emphasis on risk management compared to previous years, reflecting a more optimistic view on internal and external risks [1][12]. 10. **A-Share Market Strategy**: The A-share market strategy is characterized by a moderate tone, with expectations of a spring market rally potentially starting in mid-December, focusing on domestic demand and technology sectors [1][18][19]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt and Fiscal Discipline**: The conference highlights the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline, with local debt levels set at 4.9 trillion, ensuring effective use of funds [1][5][13]. 2. **Consumer Expectations**: There is a cautious approach towards consumer spending, with expectations for a more conservative outlook compared to previous plans [1][14]. 3. **Investment in People and Goods**: The integration of investments in goods and people is emphasized as crucial for addressing current economic conditions [1][8]. 4. **Market Environment Stability**: The conference aims to create a stable macroeconomic environment, which is deemed beneficial for stock selection and alpha opportunities [1][23]. 5. **Sector-Specific Recommendations**: Recommendations for growth sectors include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals are also highlighted [1][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape and sector-specific strategies moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing objectively analyzed the development situation of the Chinese economy, addressing various concerns regarding consumption, investment, real estate, corporate accounts, and market competition order. The policy direction for next year is "stability while seeking progress, improving quality and efficiency" [2][14]. Macro: Responding to Concerns, Improving Quality and Efficiency - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand as a primary task, emphasizing the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the expansion of quality goods and services supply. It also aims to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [5][6]. - On the demand side, the conference proposed a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income and optimize the implementation of "two new" policies, which may involve increasing social security spending to enhance disposable income and promote consumption growth [6][9]. - Government investment is expected to lead the way in stabilizing investment, with a focus on increasing central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds to alleviate financial pressures [6][9]. - The conference emphasized the need to actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas, particularly in the real estate sector, where it aims to stabilize the market and improve residents' purchasing power [7][9]. Strategies: Balancing Growth and Reform - The conference reiterated the need for a proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels. It aims to optimize fiscal spending and strengthen fiscal management [10][23]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. The use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts, is anticipated to be more flexible and efficient [11][24]. - The conference stressed the importance of innovation-driven development, with measures to enhance the role of enterprises in innovation and promote high-quality development of key industrial chains [12][16]. Real Estate: Focus on Supply Issues - The conference underscored the need to stabilize the real estate market, advocating for measures to control new supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply quality. It encourages the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [29][30]. - The emphasis on resolving inventory issues reflects a heightened focus on the real estate sector's challenges, particularly in light of the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [29][30]. Consumption: Continuous Policy Support - The conference prioritized domestic demand, reiterating the importance of consumption in driving economic growth. It plans to implement measures to enhance residents' income and stabilize employment for key groups [38]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence and spending are expected to continue, with a focus on increasing the quality and availability of goods and services [38].