Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The market has experienced a pullback, with the Hang Seng Index down by 3.5% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down by 4.9%. However, the innovative pharmaceutical sector continues to rise, gaining 2.6% [1] - Overall, there has been a significant outflow of funds from the market, with an average daily fund intensity of -9.9 million HKD, compared to +12.6 million HKD the previous week [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the Hong Kong stock market have been slightly revised down by 0.1%, indicating a clear divergence among industries, with 11 industries seeing upward revisions and 18 experiencing downward adjustments [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,508, reflecting a 3.5% decline this week, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 4.9% [12] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with a 2.6% increase, contrasting with significant declines in other sectors such as automotive (-7.9%) and financials (-3.6%) [1][16] Fund Flow - There was a notable outflow of funds across the market, with 26 industries experiencing outflows, particularly in automotive (-2.3 million HKD/day) and non-bank financials (-2.0 million HKD/day) [2] - Only four industries saw inflows, with pharmaceuticals leading at +1.4 million HKD/day [2] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS forecast for the Hong Kong stock market has been adjusted down by 0.1%, with significant upward revisions in the steel industry (+235.8%) and pharmaceuticals (+1.4%) [3] - Conversely, industries such as basic chemicals (-3.2%) and telecommunications (-0.9%) faced downward revisions [3]

Group 1 - The average position of public actively managed equity mixed funds is approximately 85.99% as of July 25, reflecting an increase of 2.05 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The sectors with increased positions include electronics, defense and military industry, consumer services, machinery, and textile and apparel [1] - The sectors with decreased positions include telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, home appliances, and oil and petrochemicals [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the social services sector [3][5][37]. Core Viewpoints - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with a significant increase in the number of zero-tariff goods from 1,900 items (21%) to 6,600 items (74%), which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hainan for businesses and tourists [14][15]. - The investment in the Yajiang Hydropower project, totaling 1.2 trillion CNY, is anticipated to stimulate regional economic activity and support various industries such as education, tourism, and logistics [16][17]. - The report suggests that the social services sector will benefit from favorable national policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, leading to a potential recovery in valuations [3][37]. Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The consumer services sector outperformed the market with a 4.41% increase, surpassing the benchmark by 1.61 percentage points during the reporting period [23][26]. - Key stocks in the consumer services sector included Tibet Tourism, Lansheng Co., and Oriental Selection, which saw significant gains [26][27]. Company Dynamics - Dou Shen Education launched an AI-based writing and reading system, while JD.com introduced a "Dish Partner" program to innovate traditional restaurant franchising [29][30]. - Sally's net profit reached a record high for the quarter, driven by a low-price strategy that increased customer traffic [31]. - The official direct sales platform for civil aviation was launched by Hanglv Zongheng, integrating resources from 37 airlines [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Atour, China Oriental Education, and Meituan, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][37]. - Mid-term selections include China Duty Free Group, Meituan, and Huazhu Group, indicating a diverse range of investment options across the sector [3][37]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for several companies, with a focus on maintaining an "Outperform the Market" rating for firms like Mixue Group and Atour [4][37].

Group 1 - Market sentiment has improved with an increase in margin trading balance, turnover rate, and transaction volume across major indices [2][19] - The average margin trading balance reached approximately 1.92 trillion yuan, up 1.48% from the previous week, with the financing purchase ratio rising to 11.13% of total A-share transaction volume [16][19] - The turnover rate for major indices increased, with the CSI 500 showing the largest growth in transaction volume at 18.30% [19][20] Group 2 - The PE valuation percentiles for major indices increased, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading with a rise of 5.1 percentage points [24][28] - Stable style sectors led the increase in PE valuation percentiles, rising by 2.6 percentage points, while the consumer style also saw a rise of 2.5 percentage points [36][39] - The construction industry led the sectoral PE valuation increases with a rise of 9.4 percentage points, while the banking sector saw a decline of 2.0 percentage points [53][54]

Group 1 - The core index of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong Stock Connect leisure consumption theme is reported at 1223.40 points, with a monthly increase of 1.87%, a three-month increase of 17.74%, and a year-to-date increase of 19.70% [1] - The index consists of 40 listed companies involved in the leisure consumption industry, reflecting the overall performance of these companies within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 30, 2016, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Yum China (10.65%), Pop Mart (9.78%), Anta Sports (9.59%), Meituan-W (8.81%), Shenzhou International (7.05%), Li Ning (5.81%), Haidilao (4.32%), Tongcheng Travel (4.18%), Mixue Group (3.03%), and Samsonite (2.97%) [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry composition, consumer services account for 37.02%, textiles, apparel, and jewelry for 36.42%, durable goods for 18.18%, media for 5.55%, and retail for 2.84% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments of the index, including the removal of companies that are delisted or undergo significant corporate changes [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to gain momentum with accelerated rotation of market hotspots, as evidenced by the performance of major indices [1][2] - For the week of July 14 to July 18, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 3.44% [2][4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the real estate sector saw gains, with healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples leading the way with increases of 9.52%, 4.16%, and 3.92% respectively [2][7] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the week was HKD 246.725 billion, an increase of HKD 4.213 billion from the previous week [2][13] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, which is a decrease of HKD 4.899 billion compared to the previous week [2][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index as of July 18 were 11.04 and 1.16, respectively, both of which are at the 81% and 82% percentile levels since 2019 [2][18] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively low compared to global equity markets, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 4.62%, which is at the 8% percentile since 2010 [2][20] - The report suggests that sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and "anti-involution" industries, should be closely monitored [2][37] - The performance of companies exceeding expectations in their mid-year reports is expected to rebound, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][38]

Group 1 - Korean investors have shown increasing interest in Chinese stocks, with a cumulative trading volume of approximately $5.514 billion in 2023, making China the second most favored overseas market for Korean investors, following the United States [1] - The trading volume of Korean investors in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stocks surged to $782 million in February 2023, nearly doubling from the previous month, marking the highest level since August 2022 [2] - The recent launch of AI models in China has attracted global capital, further fueling Korean investors' enthusiasm for the Chinese market [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in activity, with total fundraising exceeding 100 billion HKD in the first half of 2023, surpassing levels from the past three years [3] - Notable IPOs include CATL raising 41.006 billion HKD and Hengrui Medicine raising 11.374 billion HKD, among others, indicating strong investor interest across various sectors [4] Group 3 - Citigroup's report indicates that despite macroeconomic fluctuations, Asian stock markets are performing better than global counterparts, with a constructive mid-term outlook for Chinese stocks, particularly in the consumer sector [7] - Morgan Stanley predicts sustained global investor interest in Chinese assets, while Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI advancements could lead to a 2.5% annual increase in overall earnings for Chinese stocks over the next decade [7] - JPMorgan anticipates a continued revaluation of Chinese tech stocks, projecting an average annual return of 7.8% over the next 10 to 15 years [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. Core Viewpoints - The main investment strategies include holding long positions in cotton CF509, maintaining a buy I2509 - sell I2601 positive spread position in iron ore, and holding short positions in alumina AO2509. For other varieties, specific trading strategies are recommended based on their respective fundamentals and market trends [1][2]. - In the short - term, most varieties are expected to show volatile trends. However, from a long - term perspective, the stock index has a clear upward trend, while the trends of other varieties are mainly determined by their supply - demand relationships, policy factors, and macro - economic conditions [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index - The main line of the stock index is not clear yet, and it is in a state of volatile accumulation. Although the market heat has increased significantly after the index broke through key points, the trading main line remains unclear, and the short - term breakthrough momentum is insufficient. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term and has a clear long - term upward trend due to the increasing enthusiasm of international capital for Chinese assets [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market is in a high - level volatile state. The domestic economic growth is basically in line with expectations, and attention should be paid to the intensity of policy reinforcement. The liquidity expectation is cautious due to the tax period. The macro - environment lacks trend - driving factors, and the current low odds and high congestion restrict the further upward space of the bond market [1]. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio is converging. Although there are many short - term disturbing factors, the long - term bullish factors for gold prices still hold. It is recommended to hold short positions of out - of - the - money put options on the 10 - contract for both gold and silver [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in a narrow - range volatile state. The short - term tariff pressure on copper prices may continue, but the medium - term tight - balance pattern remains unchanged, and there is still support at the bottom [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, while the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is limited, and attention should be paid to changes in inventory and demand expectations [4]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a low - level consolidation state. The supply of nickel resources is relatively abundant, and the demand for downstream stainless steel is weak. The short - term lack of directional driving force is expected to continue the low - level consolidation [4]. - **Lithium**: The lithium price has insufficient upward driving force. The supply - demand structure of lithium carbonate remains loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies during the current phased rebound [4]. Silicon Energy - The polysilicon market is expected to have wide - range volatile trends. The supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" production - cut expectation provides support for prices, and the previous strategies can be continued [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The rebar price has strong support at the bottom. The supply - demand contradiction accumulates slowly, and the furnace material price is relatively firm. It is recommended to continue holding short positions of out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The short - term fundamental contradiction of hot - rolled coil accumulates slowly. Although there are some negative factors on the margin, the cost support is strong. It is recommended to continue holding the profit - compression arbitrage strategy for the 01 - contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to continue the volatile and upward trend. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the inventory is stable. It is recommended to adjust the option strategy and continue holding the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Both coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile and upward. The supply of coking coal is tight in the short - term, and the first - round price increase of coke has been gradually implemented, with a positive market outlook [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, and the long - short game is intense. The arbitrage strategy is temporarily better than the single - side strategy. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions in the 01 - contract for aggressive investors and continue the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Float Glass**: The short - term fundamentals of float glass change little. The "anti - involution" expectation and supply - contraction expectation provide support, but the demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 - contract and continue the arbitrage strategy [8]. Crude Oil - The crude oil price is in a high - volatility state. The increase in supply and the peak - season demand are in a stalemate, resulting in high - volatility trends [8]. Methanol - The coastal methanol price is falling, while the inland price has short - term support. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - tightening expectation in the coastal area has failed to materialize [8][10]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin price is expected to continue falling. The production enterprise inventory has increased passively, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is decreasing [10]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The supply may be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the textile off - season restricts the price increase [10]. Rubber - The rubber price has limited upward space. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is decreasing, resulting in a supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern [10].

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index, reported a value of 2636.75 points, with a monthly increase of 2.98%, a three-month increase of 4.82%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.68% [1] - The index is categorized into 11 industries based on the classification standards of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen index series, which includes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: Laopu Gold (2.32%), Leap Motor (1.91%), Fuyao Glass (1.63%), Great Wall Motors (1.43%), Tongcheng Travel (1.38%), BAIC Blue Valley (1.31%), Chao Feng Power (1.31%), Gongxiao Daji (1.29%), Wanfeng Aowei (1.23%), and Magpow (1.19%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the index's holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange 42.90%, Shanghai Stock Exchange 31.40%, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange 25.70% [2] - The industry composition of the index's holdings includes: Passenger Cars and Parts 44.98%, Durable Consumer Goods 16.70%, Textiles, Apparel, and Jewelry 13.19%, Consumer Services 12.62%, and Retail 12.51% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is reported at 3880.00 points, with a recent increase of 2.84% over the past month and a slight decrease of 0.47% year-to-date [1][2] - The CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is composed of various sectors categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, and over 90 tertiary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index include Sichuan Changhong (6.97%), Ninebot (6.54%), Chuanfeng Power (4.85%), and others, indicating a diverse representation of companies [2] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is primarily from the Shanghai Stock Exchange at 62.05%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 37.95% [2] - The index's holdings are significantly concentrated in the passenger vehicles and parts sector (35.37%) and durable consumer goods (34.76%), highlighting the focus on these industries [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring the index remains reflective of market conditions [3]