平安观点： 宏 2025 年 8 月 25 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 8 月第 3 周） 工业品期货再降温 证券分析师 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 从高频数据观察，本周中国工业生产总体平稳，线下出行活动继续恢复， 电影票房收入强于去年同期，新房成交在低基数下回稳。不过，工业品期 货价格进一步降温，焦煤、纯碱、焦炭、螺纹钢等商品期货领跌。 1. 工业：生产总体平稳。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、钢铁板材产量 和表观需求环比提升，部分化工品开工率提升；浮法玻璃开工率基本持平 上周；水泥熟料产能利用率、石油沥青开工率边际调整。2）中下游方面， 本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造业开工率季节性回升；汽车全钢胎开工率、半 钢胎开工率均有回升。 2. 地产：新房成交同比企稳。1）销售方面，本周（截至 8 月 22 日）30 大 中城市新房销售面积同比增长-12.5%；8 月以来 30 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-25 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3119 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 2 元/吨（-0.06%）。当日注册仓单 157733 吨, 环比增加 21323 吨。主力合约持仓量为 141.1603 万手，环比减少 46508 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3361 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 14 元/吨（-0.41%）。 当日注册仓单 32215 吨, 环比减少 1777 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.8147 万手 ...

大宗建材方面：1、水泥：（1）八月下旬，受资金面持续紧张，以及部分地区仍有高 温、雨水天气影响，整体市场需求恢复较为缓慢，国内重点地区水泥企业平均出货率在 45.7%左右。价格方面，部分省份已陆续完成首轮提价，为巩固当前涨价成果，企业有意继 续推动价格上行。预计后续水泥价格将呈稳中偏强趋势运行。（2）行业供给自律共识有望 进一步强化，全年盈利中枢有望好于去年。尽管Q2因需求波动或错峰执行问题供需阶段性 失衡、价格出现回落，但今年行业在主导企业引领下维护利润的意愿显著增强，我们认为供 需再平衡时间仍然会明显好于去年，8月中下旬标志性市场或开启提价，节点有望较去年提 前，全年盈利中枢有望高于去年。（3）板块市净率估值处于历史底部，产业政策落地有望 推动盈利持续修复、估值回升。水泥企业市净率估值处于历史低位，板块分红比例提升。行 业景气低位为进一步的整合带来机遇。产能产量管控政策有望逐步落实，有望推动僵尸产能 退出，改善产能严重过剩区域的供给矛盾。水泥行业纳入全国碳市场，碳排放对供给的约束 趋严有望加速过剩产能出清和行业整合。（4）龙头企业综合竞争优势凸显，中长期有望受 益于行业格局优化，估值有望迎来修复，推荐全国 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 反内卷+旺季双催化，板块迎布局时点 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）行业"反内卷"+旺季来临，水泥行业 自律加速，推荐华新水泥、海螺水泥等，上峰水泥等受益；防 水顺应倡议产品提价，推荐东方雨虹、科顺股份等；光伏玻璃 行业底部提价，推荐旗滨集团，福莱特、信义光能等受益； （2）中报陆续发布，推荐业绩超预期，个股α强的三棵树，推 荐估值低位且具备高分红的伟星新材、兔宝宝等；（3）新疆自 治区成立 70 周年+雅下水电站重大工程有序推进，推荐重点工 程中岩大地；区域民爆需求高景气，行业供给有望再集中，广 东宏大、雪峰科技、高争民爆、国泰集团等受益；（4）坚定 推荐松井股份，电芯绝缘 UV 喷墨打印全球首创，叠加车身漆 稳步推进；推荐麦加芯彩，风电涂料高增，船舶涂料、海工涂 料取证加速未来有望持续国产替代。 ►行业反内卷水泥价格暂稳，光伏玻璃底部提价，特种电子布 持续高景气。（1）水泥：本周全国水泥市场价格 364.15 元/ 吨，整体趋稳， ...

中经记者 张漫游 北京报道 2025年8月15日是第三个全国生态日，也是"绿水青山就是金山银山"理念提出20周年的日子。 20年间，我国绿色发展取得了显著成效，金融在其中发挥了关键支撑与引领作用。当前，金融的角色正 从单纯"支持绿色"逐步迈向系统"改造棕色"，成为推进"双碳"目标实施的重要抓手，也为全球新兴经济 体的绿色转型提供了可资借鉴的中国样本。 近日《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》（以下简称《指导意见》）正式发布，其中明确提出"坚 持'先立后破'，推动银行支持高碳行业符合绿色低碳技术改进方向以及产能置换政策的项目和企业"， 为金融机构服务实体经济绿色低碳转型指明了方向和路径。 造船舶能效设计指数（EEDI）作为关键绩效指标（SPT）与贷款利率动态挂钩并进行定期披露。融资主 体在项目完成后将提供由中国船级社出具的EEDI认证证书，确保转型成效可测、可控、可验证。 转型金融推动降碳增绿 随着"双碳"目标的深入推进，我国经济社会绿色低碳转型进入攻坚阶段，金融服务的范畴正从单一支持 新能源、节能环保等纯绿项目，逐渐延伸至钢铁、建材、化工等高碳行业的绿色升级。这一转变标志着 金融功能从"支持绿色"迈入"改造棕 ...

焦煤夜盘收涨约6.2%，焦炭涨约4.7%，玻璃、合成橡胶、铁矿石也至少涨约2.1%。此前，美联储主席 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会年会上释放鸽派信息。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 新纪元期货研究 8/22/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差（未 折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/8/15 | 2025/8/22 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3188 | 3119 | -69 | -2.16 | 3280 | 161 | | 热卷 | HC2510 | 3439 | 3361 | -78 | -2.27 | 3400 | 39 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 776 | 770 | -6 | -0.77 | 778 | 8 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1730 | 1679 | -51 | -2.95 | 1620 | -59 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1230 | 1162 | -68 | -5.53 | 1350 | 188 | | 玻璃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating as the price increase has not been implemented yet; glass and soda ash prices are oscillating within a narrow range due to supply disturbances; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are also fluctuating with the intertwining of long - short games [1][3] - Glass is expected to be weak and oscillating, and soda ash is also expected to be weak and oscillating; silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the speculative sentiment weakened. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly. The downstream spot market was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week; the output was 771,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. With the previous price increase, the glass output increased significantly, and the pressure to reduce high inventory is great. The premium of the futures market has been quickly repaired. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on the supply and demand sides of glass [1] - Soda Ash: With the implementation of new production capacity in the later stage and the lack of expectation of a significant increase in soda ash consumption, the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash will continue to intensify. Therefore, it is still necessary to restrict the release of production capacity and output through losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the supply side such as the progress of new production capacity commissioning [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Weak and oscillating [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The long - short game sentiment in the silicomanganese futures market continued, and the market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market quotation did not change significantly. The price of silicomanganese 6517 in the northern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was about 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated within a narrow range, with a 0.28% increase. In the spot market, the market sentiment was average, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lump in the main production area was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese: The output of silicomanganese increased month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline, being at the median level in the same period in recent years. With the slight increase in the manganese ore quotation, the cost of silicomanganese increased. The market still shows an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to suppress the output release through a certain degree of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and shipping situation of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: With the profit repair, the output of ferrosilicon increased rapidly, the demand decreased slightly week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. In the long run, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline in a volatile manner. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection production restrictions [4]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron are affected by supply, demand, and policy sentiment. The short - term prices of iron ore may continue to adjust, and for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [7][10][11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. The prices of glass are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. The prices of soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [16][17][19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar price in Tianjin was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shanghai was 3420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to recover, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. The overall steel production is still at a high level, while the demand - side support is insufficient [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (+ 3.50), and the position increased by 11185 lots to 451,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.44% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output was 240,750 tons, basically unchanged from last week. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The short - term upward increase of pig iron may be limited [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Futures Market**: On August 21, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM601) closed slightly up 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon - iron (SF511) closed up 0.28% at 5638 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of 72 silicon - iron in Tianjin was 5830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity pattern of manganese - silicon has not changed. The production of manganese - silicon has shown an upward trend recently, and the supply - side pressure remains. The demand for silicon - iron and the entire black sector may weaken marginally in the future [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 2.92% (+ 245), and the position increased by 2630 lots to 529,075 lots [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 415 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 165 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not fundamentally changed. The production is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 345), and the position decreased by 1672 lots to 335,483 lots [16]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 46 yuan/kg, up 1.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 49 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 2530 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production increased week - on - week, and the inventory reduction was limited. The prices are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, up 0.28% from the previous week [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass production remains at a high level, the inventory pressure has increased slightly, and the downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, up 0.71% from last Thursday [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream demand has little fluctuation, and the production of soda ash devices fluctuates slightly. The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [20].