投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-27 现实⽭盾仍存，盘⾯⽀撑有限 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本⾯缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南⾮锰矿消息扰动影响，合⾦盘⾯表现强势，但盘⾯涨⾄⾼ 位将⾯临明显的卖保压⼒。 节后钢材供需双弱，库存仍在累积，基本面缺乏亮点，且市场对旺季 需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍存，春节后煤矿复产速度将加 快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存，相关品种价格表现 承压。受南非锰矿消息扰动影响，合金盘面表现强势，但盘面涨至高 位将面临明显的卖保压力。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节后 需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两 会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供需双弱，基本面驱动 有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有继续增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将继续保持健 康，现货预计暂 ...

春节假期过后，国内化工品市场在地缘局势扰动与基本面差异的双重作用下呈现显著分化格局，化工板 块迎来关键窗口期。2月25日，在期货日报"大势观澜"直播栏目中，融达期货化工品研究员韩冰冰就当 前化工品市场的核心逻辑、品种分化及未来机遇进行了深入分享。他表示，在原油市场充满不确定性的 背景下，国内化工品板块内部已出现显著分化，聚酯产业链相关品种率先显现景气周期特征，而甲醇、 PVC等品种则面临较大供需压力。 对于近期化工品市场的投资策略，韩冰冰建议，以"抓强弃弱"的主线思路，优先布局供需格局改善的聚 酯链品种，尤其是PTA这类具备中长期逻辑支撑的标的；对于PVC、甲醇等弱势品种保持谨慎，若参与 可选择对冲交易以降低风险。未来2~3周需紧密跟踪终端开工率、下游订单量等核心数据，把握需求验 证期的市场节奏。 韩冰冰表示，整体来看，2026年化工品行业正处于供给格局优化与需求结构转型的关键时期，"反内 卷"推动落后产能出清，行业固定资产投资增速转负，半导体材料、新能源材料、机器人材料等新兴赛 道的崛起，为行业打开了长期成长的空间。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 与聚酯链的强势形成鲜明对比的是，PVC、甲醇、纯碱、玻璃等品种则 ...

2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260226 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：震荡回落 | 4 | | LLDPE：原油成本支撑强，自身供需格局一般 | 6 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高 | 6 | | 烧碱：近月交割压力大，但成本仍有支撑 | 7 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260226 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 11 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 12 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 17 | | LPG：供应收紧，夜盘冲高 | 18 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，现货横盘整理 | 18 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 21 | | 燃料油：夜盘反弹，弱势暂缓 | 22 | | 低硫燃料油：高位回跌，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收缩 | 22 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡思路对待 | 23 | | 短纤：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动20260226 | 26 | | 瓶片：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动20260226 | 26 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production side shows mixed trends, with some indicators like power plant daily consumption falling during the holiday, while the blast furnace operating rate rising against the trend; the demand side has a weak rebound in the property market and strong growth in the auto market, but prices of steel, cement, glass and other products are weak or fluctuating; inflation shows different trends in CPI and PPI, with post - holiday pig prices weakening and oil prices rising [4] Summary of Each Section According to the Directory 1. Economic Growth: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday 1.1 Production: Rising Blast Furnace Operating Rate Against the Trend - **Power plant daily consumption decline during the holiday**: On February 24, the average daily consumption of 6 large power generation groups was 58.4 tons, a 0.7% decrease from February 17; on February 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 240.1 tons, a 22.9% decrease from February 9 [4][11] - **Rising blast furnace operating rate against the trend**: On February 13, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.2%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from February 6; the capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point increase from February 6. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills was 96.8% on February 13, a 4.5 - percentage - point increase from February 6 [4][15] - **Tire operating rate dropping to the same - period low last year during the holiday**: On February 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 14.2%, a 28.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 14.2%, a 45.2 - percentage - point decrease from February 12. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions also had a seasonal decline [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Weak Rebound in the Property Market During the Holiday - **Weak rebound in the property market during the holiday**: From the first day to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 75,000 square meters, a 15.9% increase from the same period last year, a 44.6% increase from the same period in 2024, and a 54.0% decrease from the same period in 2023. The rebound strength in first - tier cities was stronger than that in second - and third - tier cities [21] - **Stronger growth in auto market retail sales**: In February, retail sales increased by 54% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 46% year - on - year [4][25] - **Weak and fluctuating steel prices**: On February 24, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.9% and remained flat respectively compared with February 14. The inventory of steel products also increased rapidly [29] - **Continued weakness in cement prices**: On February 24, the national cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with February 12. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the national average [30] - **Narrow - range fluctuations in glass prices**: On February 24, the active futures contract price of glass was 1048 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from February 13 [36] - **Unstoppable decline in container shipping freight rate index**: On February 13, the CCFI index decreased by 3.0% compared with February 6, and the SCFI index decreased by 1.2% during the same period [40] 2. Inflation: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday 2.1 CPI: Weakening Pig Prices After the Holiday - **Weakening pig prices after the holiday**: On February 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.3 yuan/kg, a 0.2% decrease from February 14 [45] - **Seasonal decline in the agricultural product price index**: On February 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.8% compared with February 14. Different agricultural products showed different price trends [50] 2.2 PPI: Rising Oil Prices - **Rising oil prices**: On February 24, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 71.4 and 65.6 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 1.8% and 5.3% increase from February 17 [53] - **Falling copper and aluminum prices**: On February 24, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.4% and 1.8% respectively compared with February 17. The domestic commodity index also had a decline in the month - on - month comparison [58] - **Most industrial product prices falling month - on - month**: Since February, most industrial product prices have fallen, with power coal prices rising month - on - month and other products falling, mainly rebar and cement [61]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-26 政策利好提振，盘⾯低位反弹 上海地产利好政策出台，叠加重⼤会议期间⾼炉存在减产预期，市场 氛围偏暖，盘⾯低位反弹。但钢材库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯缺乏亮点， 且市场对节后需求预期⼀般，同时铁矿⽯库存压⼒仍在积累，春节后 煤矿复产速度将加快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压⼒仍存， 板块盘⾯上⽅空间有限。 上海地产利好政策出台，叠加重大会议期间高炉存在减产预期，市场 氛围偏暖，盘面低位反弹。但钢材库存压力仍存，基本面缺乏亮点， 且市场对节后需求预期一般，同时铁矿石库存压力仍在积累，春节后 煤矿复产速度将加快，煤焦下游补库意愿有限，玻纯供需压力仍存， 板块盘面上方空间有限。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释 放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢春 节假期期间供需双弱，基本面驱动有限，价格波动不大。 2. 碳元素方面：节后焦炭供需均有小幅增长预期，随着物流运输的 逐渐恢复，焦企累库情况将得到缓解，焦炭供需结构将 ...

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

高昂的能源成本已经导致能源密集型行业（包括化工行业）的工厂关闭或停产，而一些公司为了应对不 断上涨的账单，正在裁员或减少工时。报告还指出，盈利能力疲软使得跨国公司更难证明在英国设立新 生产线的合理性，尤其是在竞争市场提供更便宜能源的情况下。 法新社近日报道说，英国电价如此昂贵，主要是因为超过1/4的电力仍然来自天然气，而天然气价格在 俄乌冲突后飙升。虽然批发价格此后有所下降，但仍处于高位。这些成本最终都转嫁到了用户电费账单 上。在钢铁、化工、玻璃和水泥等高耗能行业，企业纷纷警告称，政府提供的支持不足以维持其竞争 力。 本报特约记者 任 重 能源价格高企已成为最令英国工业界头疼的问题之一。据英国《卫报》22日报道，英国工业联合会和英 国能源协会的一份最新报告显示，能源价格大幅上涨已迫使英国约40%的企业缩减投资，"制造业强国 地位受到威胁"。 代表100多家电力生产商和零售商的英国能源协会表示，目前英国企业用电成本比俄乌冲突前高70%， 天然气价格高60%。英国工业联合会的相关调查发现，近90%的企业在过去5年中经历了能源账单上 涨，四成企业因此减少了投资。电力和天然气价格上涨正在挤压整个英国经济的利润空间，导 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-25 产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾仍存，纯碱偏弱运行 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 风险 玻璃方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，沙河地区工厂出货较好，华东市场交投一般，华 中市场价格暂稳，华南市场除个别企业针对个别基地存满量优惠外，多数价格暂稳，东北市场价格暂时稳定。昨 日浮法玻璃现货价格1269元/吨，环比上一交易日持平。供需与逻辑：本轮偏弱的地产数据压制了玻璃反弹高度， 但即将步入玻璃传统消费旺季，关注后续是否能形成阶段性的消费回升和库存的持续去化，目前处于近月资金博 弈阶段，谨慎对待当前的价格。 纯碱方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，国内纯碱市场走势弱，价格阴跌，窄幅调整，企 业库存去库幅度放缓，逐步转向累库。最新纯碱开工率83.83%，装置开工正常，暂无波动。供需与逻辑：需求端 来看，浮法玻璃受地产数据影响，表现薄弱。随着春季检修结束，纯碱库存有进一步增加压力，长期来看，纯碱 供需仍偏宽松。 策略 硅锰方面：：昨日锰硅期货节后开市震荡调整，单日增仓41065。假期结束开市第一天 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-25 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税，对特朗普政府"关税牌"形成掣肘。目前对华整体 关税为 35%，其中原有 25%关税仍然生效，两项基于 IEEPA 征收的 10%关税被裁定非法，后续或以新的全球 关税加以替代，但具体实施细节尚未明确。海外政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价 格形成扰动。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后，需重点关注 板材需求恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际变化。短期内黑色系大概率延续区 间偏弱震荡格局，趋势性机会尚未明朗。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strengthening expectation of price increases for electronic fabrics, driven by explosive demand and capacity constraints, indicating a "super cycle" characterized by strong demand rigidity and prolonged duration [5][6] - The report identifies three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain, suggesting strategic focus areas for investment [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Situation - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, with an average shipment rate of approximately 9% in key regions, a month-on-month decrease of about 15 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of about 4 percentage points [7][22] - Glass inventory has slightly increased, with a total inventory of 51.63 million weight boxes, a month-on-month increase of 2.14 million weight boxes, reflecting a 4.32% growth [7][30] Outlook for 2026 - The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with residential renovation demand expected to rise from 50% currently to nearly 70% by 2030 [8] - The Africa chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, recommending leading companies such as Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [8] - The AI chain looks at the industrial upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with a focus on Low-Dk products and domestic substitution opportunities [8] Price and Inventory - The national average price for cement before the festival was 346.29 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.32 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 47.90 yuan/ton [23] - The national average price for glass before the festival was 63.24 yuan/weight box, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 yuan/weight box and a year-on-year decrease of 11.07 yuan/weight box [32]