行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑材料 证券研究报告 节日期间港股建材板块表现如何？ 风险提示：基建、地产需求回落超预期，对水泥、玻璃价格涨价趋势造成影 响；新材料品种下游景气度及自身成长性不及预期；地产产业链坏账减值损 失超预期。 2025 年 10 月 09 日 行情回顾 节前两个交易日（20250929-20250930）沪深 300 涨 1.99%，建材（中信） 涨 1.57%，其中其他专用材料、陶瓷、玻璃纤维涨幅居前。个股中，上峰水 泥（+14.8%）、万里石（+12.2%）、法狮龙（+9.0%）、世名科技（+7.6%）、道 氏技术（+7.5%）涨幅居前。 核心观点 节日期间（0929-1007）香港建材指数涨 2.55%，玻璃品种表现最优，其中 中国玻璃（+13.21%）、信义光能（+13.21%）、信义玻璃（+5.76%），水泥次 之，中国建材（+4.55%）、西部水泥（+4.14%）、海螺水泥（+2.60%），消费 建材相对较弱，中国联塑（-2.08%）。从估值分位数来看，当前玻璃品种处 于过去三年 50%分位数以下，水泥高于玻璃，其中中国建材、海螺水泥、金 隅集团处于过去三年 80%分位数左右 ...

节假日期间，五大材表需表现疲软，库存累积速度明显快于往年同期，库销比已升至近年同期最高水平。尤其热卷库存累积幅度显著，表明此前基本面相对偏强的 品种也呈现出压力。整体来看，钢材市场仍面临较大的去库压力。当前长流程钢厂尚有一定利润空间，自主减产动力不足，而需求端暂未出现明显超预期的好转。 在此背景下，高供应与需求不足之间的矛盾持续显现，负反馈减产压力逐步积累，节前原料端呈现明显补库支撑，但在钢材需求不足状态下预计节后原料补库动力 较弱。综合来看，基本面偏弱，盘面或承压运行。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3096 | 3072 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -63 | -56 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3159 | 3128 | 螺纹05-10月差 | 139 | 139 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3020 | 2989 | 螺纹10-01月 ...

| 胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月9日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 9月30日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF): 上海 | 14300 | 14550 | -250 | -1.72% | | | 全家 其关 | -730 | 14650 | -15380 | -104.98% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14800 | 14850 | -50 | -0.34% | | | 非标价差 | -230 | -525 | 205 | 56.19% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 20:22 | 0.00 | 50.55 | #DIV/0! | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.80 | 0.00 | 54.80 | #DIV/0i | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 130 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-10-09 ⻓假期间市场平稳，节后关注政策预期 ⻓假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格⼩幅上涨0. 3-1.3%⽔平，焦炭⾸轮提涨落地，⽽焦煤、合⾦以及玻璃纯碱价格 维稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10⽉上旬⾏业需求表现来 看，依然亮点不⾜，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价 格的上⾏⾼度，同时⾼铁⽔继续⽀撑炉料需求及价格，进⽽稳固钢材 成本。 长假期间钢材、钢坯价格维稳为主，铁矿掉期及现货价格小幅上涨0. 3-1.3%水平，焦炭首轮提涨落地，而焦煤、合金以及玻璃纯碱价格维 稳，整体板块品种价格变动有限。从10月上旬行业需求表现来看，依 然亮点不足，叠加海外关税扰动频发，将限制节后板块品种价格的上 行高度，同时高铁水继续支撑炉料需求及价格，进而稳固钢材成本。 1、铁元素方面，随着三季度结束，部分矿山季末冲量暂告段落、海 外矿山发运环比小幅减量，而国内台风扰动下降，港口到港量环比增 加、符合预期，高铁水下刚需仍有支撑，假期消耗库存为主，部分钢 厂节后有补库计划，整体库存压力不突出。四季度重要会议以及宏 ...

国信证券近日发布建筑建材行业双周报：近日，工信部等6部门联合印发《建材行业稳 增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，将盈利水平有效提升作为主要2025-2026年目标之一。全 国水泥价格环比大幅攀升，涨幅1.5%，8月下旬以来各地尝试推涨价格，但因需求支撑不 足，多数未能有效落地，随着四季度临近，为完成全年稳增长目标，预计水泥企业将继续推 动价格上涨。 以下为研究报告摘要： 建材方面，稳增长工作方案出台，反内卷升温有望继续提振行业预期，建议关注供给调 控趋严、盈利水平有望逐步修复的水泥、玻璃板块，Q4完成全年稳增长目标最后冲刺期， 企业推涨意愿持续、价格中枢有望提升，推荐海螺水泥、华新水泥、塔牌集团、旗滨集团， 同时关注受益重大项目开工建设，相对独立的西藏和新疆区域投资机会；玻纤板块受益结构 性景气，尤其AI爆发带动Low Dk、Low CTE等需求提升，高端缺口下国产替代加速，关注 中材科技、中国巨石；消费建材继续受益二手房景气及存量改造需求，龙头盈利率先改善， 同时关注供给格局明显优化、竞争明显趋缓的细分领域，防水、涂料等领域已陆续提价，择 优布局经营韧性更强龙头，推荐三棵树、兔宝宝、北新建材、伟星新材 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-10-09 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 节前螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 25 元/吨（-0.80%）。当日注册仓单 285846 吨, 环比增加 15608 吨。主力合约持仓量为 187.3832 万手，环比减少 52807 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板 卷主力合约收盘价为 3253 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 36 元/吨（-1.09%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比 减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 134.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a focus on quantity to quality, driven by government policies aimed at optimizing structure and eliminating outdated capacity [1][2][16]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The glass industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, with an output value of nearly 7 trillion yuan, covering over 150 sectors [1]. - The glass sector is transitioning from a phase of merely controlling production to a comprehensive optimization of capacity, energy, and products [2][3]. - The industry faces structural challenges, including overcapacity in traditional sectors and a shortage of high-end products, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [2][6][16]. Group 2: Policy and Governance - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan focusing on "capacity optimization, energy upgrading, and product upgrading" to address structural overcapacity and high-end shortages [2][4]. - Strict measures are in place to prevent the addition of new flat glass capacity, requiring new projects to include capacity replacement plans [2][4]. - The policy emphasizes the importance of market mechanisms and encourages leading companies to establish green low-carbon transformation funds [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The glass industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with traditional float glass facing declining demand while high-end sectors like photovoltaic and electronic glass are witnessing rapid growth [6][8]. - The demand for float glass has decreased due to a downturn in the real estate market, with production dropping by 4.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [8]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic glass sector is struggling with excess low-end capacity despite a projected increase in global installations [8][9]. Group 4: Technological and Structural Challenges - The glass industry is characterized by a lack of high-end production capacity, with only 20% of electronic glass being produced domestically, leading to reliance on imports [9][18]. - The industry faces issues with product homogeneity and insufficient investment in research and development, which hampers innovation and responsiveness to market changes [6][10]. - The transition to high-end products is essential, as traditional low-end products are facing intense price competition and declining profitability [16][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategies - The industry is expected to see a shift in capacity from traditional float glass to high-end segments, with projections indicating that the share of float glass will decrease from 65% to 55% by 2026 [12][14]. - Companies are exploring various strategies, including technological upgrades, market empowerment, and optimizing layouts to navigate the current challenges [10][11]. - The integration of advanced technologies and a focus on high-end materials are seen as critical for the industry's future competitiveness and sustainability [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [5][89]. Core Views - The introduction of the "Stabilization Growth Work Plan for the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance profitability and strengthen industry management, promoting a competitive environment [1][3]. - Cement prices have seen a significant increase of 1.5% recently, with expectations for further price hikes as companies strive to meet annual growth targets [2][22]. - The glass market is experiencing a slight price increase, supported by downstream replenishment, although demand acceptance at higher prices remains limited [2][37]. - The fiberglass market shows stable pricing for non-alkali yarn, while electronic yarn remains in high demand, indicating a robust market for high-end products [2][54]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have risen significantly, with a 1.5% increase noted. Companies are expected to continue pushing for price increases as the fourth quarter approaches [2][22]. - The report anticipates that cement companies will maintain upward price momentum to achieve annual growth targets [2][22]. Glass - Float glass prices have shown a slight increase, supported by replenishment from downstream sectors, although the acceptance of high prices is limited [2][37]. - The photovoltaic glass market has seen a slight decline in demand, with inventory levels increasing, but manufacturers are maintaining stable pricing strategies [2][45]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali yarn remains stable, with mainstream prices for 2400tex yarn at 3250-3700 CNY/ton, while electronic yarn prices are stable due to high demand in the high-end market [2][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cement and glass sectors due to stricter supply controls and improving profitability. Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Qibin Group [3][5]. - For fiberglass, companies like China National Materials and China Jushi are highlighted as beneficiaries of structural demand growth [3][5]. - In the construction sector, a recovery in infrastructure investment is anticipated, with recommendations for companies such as China Railway Construction and China State Construction [3][5].

5、美国银行预测美联储降息提前至10月； 2、欧佩克+11月增产13.7万桶/日； 3、美国政府停摆使资金涌入风险资产，比特币再创历史新高； 格隆汇10月6日｜国际要闻： 4、美参议员称特朗普考虑对美国汽车生产提供大幅关税减免； 1、上周五美股三大指数涨跌不一，AMD跌近3%，中概指数跌1.15%； 6、非农报告未按计划公布，为12年来首次； 7、高盛客户看涨情绪创最近10个月新高，AI反弹引发FOMO交易； 8、OpenAI首席执行官奥尔特曼全球奔走 为AI算力和资金寻找合作伙伴； 1、港交所：截至9月30日，共有277家企业处于IPO排队状态； 2、上百家减持来袭！南亚新材、张江高科等大牛股在列 新易盛董事长更是套现近42亿； 3、玻璃价格回暖提振点火意愿 Q4玻璃产能释放预期上升； 4、科技女股神木头姐追买阿里、百度； 5、腾讯混元图像3.0模型登顶LMArena 全球"盲测"第一； 9、多国芯片巨头上调产品报价 摩根士丹利：存储芯片行业将迎超级周期； 10、伊朗议会批准货币改革 未来几年将货币面额去掉四个零； 11、哈马斯已向调解方提交对特朗普"20点计划"回应 同意释放所有人质； 12、高市早苗赢了 ...

随着工业和信息化等部门密集发布有色金属、石化化工、建材等重点行业的稳增长工作方案，一场以"数字化转型+绿色化突 围"为核心的产业变革正加速落地。此轮稳增长方案的本质是，将政策红利精准注入"新质生产力"的毛细血管。本微信公众号特 推出"观策论市"报道，聚焦政策锚点，结合相关产业形势，剖析未来的结构性机会。 编者按： 近日，工业和信息化部等部门联合印发了《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（下称《方案》），对建材行业发展 提出了新要求。 具体来看，《方案》聚焦建材行业高质量发展，提出"推动绿色建材、先进无机非金属材料发展，并严禁新增水泥、平板玻璃产 能"。 胡鹏介绍，《方案》并未对产能退出做强制性要求，预计玻璃行业出清仍以市场化为主。目前，河北、湖北等地正推动区域内 玻璃企业降低能耗，要求企业的燃料系统从传统的煤炭、石油焦转向煤制气和天然气。若后期这些工作取得积极进展，部分小 产线和落后产能有望出清，玻璃行业平均成本或小幅抬升。不过，预计行业产能出清较为有限，明年浮法玻璃在产日熔量或在 16万吨附近波动。 对纯碱而言，魏朝明表示，纯碱期货标准交割品重碱主要应用于浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃，两者产能规模受政策 ...