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玻璃、纯碱期价大幅上涨!涨势能否持续?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-07 23:39
期货日报记者在采访中了解到,玻璃、纯碱期价大幅上涨的主要原因是政策预期改善带来的估值修复,宏观与产业层面多重信号共振,市场风险偏好回 升。 宏观层面,本周召开的2026年央行工作会议释放利多信号,明确提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策,把促进物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 中信建投(601066)期货能化高级分析师胡鹏认为,这一表述为宏观预期改善筑牢基础,会议强调加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度、保持流动性充裕,不仅 能为经济稳定增长营造良好的货币金融环境,也能带动大宗商品市场看多情绪回暖。 产业层面,"反内卷"政策持续推进。2025年12月,陕西省发展改革委发布差别电价政策,对铁合金、烧碱等7个限制类产能的电价每千瓦时加价0.1元,淘 汰类产能加价幅度更高,落后产能有望加速出清。与此同时,玻璃、纯碱产业结构调整持续深化,2025年沙河地区加快玻璃企业"煤改气"进程,湖北计划 在2026年8月底之前完成玻璃企业清洁能源改造,等等。上述举措进一步为期货价格反弹提供助力。 此外,成本端与产销端的变化也为玻璃、纯碱价格上涨提供了有力支撑。 玻璃方面,据国投期货高级分析师周小燕介绍,近期沙河及湖北地区产销态势转好,行业有 ...
Apogee(APOG) - 2026 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-07 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 2.1% to $348.6 million, driven by $18.4 million in inorganic sales from the acquisition of UW Solutions and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower volume, primarily in metals [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased slightly to 13.2%, primarily due to lower volume and price, as well as higher aluminum and health insurance costs [10] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, down year-over-year, primarily due to higher amortization and interest expense from the UW Solutions acquisition [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metals segment net sales declined due to lower volume, but adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 13.5% driven by increased productivity and cost savings from Fortify Phase 2 [11] - Services segment achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year net sales growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 9.7% due to lower incentive compensation expense [11] - Glass segment net sales increased slightly to approximately $71 million, driven by increased volume and favorable mix, but adjusted EBITDA margin moderated due to lower price and higher material costs [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average aluminum prices rose approximately 13% compared to the second quarter and over 50% compared to the third quarter of last year, impacting volume and margin compression in the Metals segment [15] - Backlog for services ended the quarter at $775 million, down slightly from Q2 but up over 4% compared to Q3 of last year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on becoming the economic leader in target markets, managing its portfolio, and pursuing accretive M&A opportunities, with no change in strategic direction [19] - The UW Solutions acquisition is expected to contribute to market and geographical expansion, with fiscal 2026 expectations of $100 million in net sales and approximately 20% adjusted EBITDA margin [7] - The company aims to strengthen its core by driving more efficient operations and enabling sustained profitable growth [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges challenging macroeconomic factors but believes the company is well-positioned due to operational excellence and a strong balance sheet [8] - The company anticipates continued pressure on pricing and volume in both Metals and Glass segments, with expectations of cost headwinds from normalization of incentive compensation and higher health insurance costs [15] - Management is taking proactive measures, including expanding Project Fortify Phase 2, to manage near-term headwinds and position for growth opportunities [16] Other Important Information - The company reported net cash provided by operating activities of $29.3 million for Q3, down from $31 million in the prior year [12] - The balance sheet remains strong with a consolidated leverage ratio of 1.4x and significant capital available for future deployment [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the board looking for in new leadership? - The company is looking for someone with deep growth and operational excellence experience, particularly in M&A integration [20] Question: Is the updated outlook primarily impacted by aluminum inflation? - Yes, both Metals and Glass segments are experiencing pressure from rising aluminum prices, impacting margins [27] Question: What is the focus on M&A activity going forward? - The company has a robust M&A pipeline and is actively pursuing opportunities, with the UW Solutions acquisition being a successful example [36] Question: How is the company managing pricing discipline in a competitive market? - The company is focused on maximizing EBITDA dollar contribution while protecting premium margins, despite challenges in volume and price [44] Question: What are the near-term priorities for growth? - The company is focused on delivering results, expanding Project Fortify Phase 2, and leveraging the Apogee Management System for cost structure improvements [64][66]
Apogee(APOG) - 2026 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-07 15:02
Apogee Enterprises (NasdaqGS:APOG) Q3 2026 Earnings Call January 07, 2026 09:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsJeremy Steffan - VP of Investor Relations and Corporate CommunicationsMark Augdahl - Interim CFODon Nolan - CEOConference Call ParticipantsGowshihan Sriharan - Senior Research AnalystJulio Romero - Equity Research AnalystBrent Thielman - Managing Director and Senior Research AnalystJon Braatz - Senior Equity AnalystOperatorGood day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Apogee Enterprises' third qua ...
Apogee(APOG) - 2026 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-07 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 2.1% to $348.6 million, driven by $18.4 million in inorganic sales from the acquisition of UW Solutions and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower volume primarily in metals [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased slightly to 13.2%, impacted by lower volume and price, as well as higher aluminum and health insurance costs [10] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, down year-over-year due to higher amortization and interest expense from the UW Solutions acquisition [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metals segment net sales declined due to lower volume, but adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 13.5% driven by increased productivity and cost savings from Fortify Phase Two [11] - Services segment achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year net sales growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 9.7% due to lower incentive compensation expense [11] - Glass segment net sales increased slightly to approximately $71 million, driven by increased volume and favorable mix, though adjusted EBITDA margin moderated due to lower price and higher material costs [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average aluminum prices rose approximately 13% from Q2 to Q3 and are up over 50% compared to the same quarter last year, impacting volume and margin [14] - Backlog for services ended the quarter at $775 million, down slightly from Q2 but up over 4% compared to Q3 of last year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the economic leader in target markets with differentiated offerings and competitive cost structures, while also managing its portfolio through creative M&A opportunities [8] - The acquisition of UW Solutions is expected to contribute to market and geographical expansion, with fiscal 2026 expectations of $100 million in net sales and approximately 20% adjusted EBITDA margin [6] - The company is focused on operational excellence through the Apogee Management System (AMS) to drive productivity improvements and cost savings [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges challenging macroeconomic factors but believes the company is well-positioned due to operational excellence, cost-out execution, and a strong balance sheet [7] - The outlook for fiscal 2026 has been updated to expect net sales of approximately $1.39 billion and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $3.40-$3.50, factoring in tariff impacts and cost headwinds [13] - Management anticipates continued margin pressure in the Metals and Glass segments due to competitive market dynamics and rising aluminum prices [14] Other Important Information - The company is expanding the scope of Project Fortify Phase Two to include further restructuring actions, primarily in Metals and corporate, to manage near-term headwinds [15] - The balance sheet remains strong with a consolidated leverage ratio of 1.4 times and no near-term debt maturities [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the board looking for in new leadership? - The company is seeking someone with deep growth and operational excellence experience, particularly in M&A integration, with no change in strategic direction [18][19] Question: How is the updated outlook impacted by aluminum prices? - The primary issue is the continued increase in aluminum prices, which has led to margin pressures in both Metals and Glass segments [20][25] Question: What is the company's stance on M&A activity? - The M&A pipeline is robust, with successful integration of UW Solutions and ongoing efforts to identify new opportunities for growth [32][34] Question: How does the company view pricing discipline in the current market? - The company is focused on maximizing EBITDA dollar contribution while managing costs and maintaining pricing discipline in a competitive environment [40][41] Question: What are the near-term priorities for the company? - Key priorities include delivering results for the current year, expanding Project Fortify, and leveraging AMS for cost structure improvements [59][60]
市场情绪好转,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:49
黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-07 市场情绪好转,钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱:下游消费持稳,玻碱震荡上涨 市场分析 玻璃方面,昨日玻璃盘面震荡上行,现货方面,市场成交重心下移,下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑:目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大,虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修,但是相较刚需下降速度,减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减,且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期,持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面,昨日纯碱盘面震荡上涨,现货方面,下游观望情绪浓厚,刚需采购为主。纯碱厂库大幅增长,价格压 力显现。 供需与逻辑:目前纯碱供需矛盾相对有限,供给有所下降,伴随需求转弱,库存环比回升。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目投产,同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期,仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润,避免再度陷入供需失衡局面,持 续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡 纯碱方面:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅:硅铁电费影响,盘面快速拉涨 市场分析 硅锰方面,昨日锰硅盘面小幅上涨,整体情绪有所好转。硅锰市场震荡运行,市场观望情 ...
五矿期货黑色建材日报 2026-01-07-20260107
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 02:14
黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 交易咨询号:Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨(0.225%)。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手,环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨(0.461%)。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...
《能源化工》日报-20260107
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:51
| 期现日报 | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | 2026年1日7日 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | | | | | | 0.71% | 1694 | 1682 | 12 | 01合约 | 1778 | 10 | 05合约 | 1768 | 0.57% | 元/1中 | | | 09合约 | 1730 | 15 | 0.87% | 1745 | 2215 | 78 | 3.52% | 甲醇主力合约 | 2293 | | | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 車位 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | 2.33% | 01合约-05合约 | -84 | -86 | 2 | -13.16% | 05合约-09合约 | 33 | 38 | -2 | 丁C/四中 | | | 09合约-01合约 | 48 | 3 | 6.25% | 51 ...
市场情绪回暖,盘?表现偏强
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]
国内高频 | 假期提振下人流出行走强(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 16:25
来源:赵伟宏观探索 1、生产高频跟踪:工业生产走势分化,建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中,高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。上周(12月28日至01月03日),高炉开工率环比0.7%,同 比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%;钢材表观消费环比0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回 落,环比-2.5%。 图 30: 上周, 高炉开工率有所回升 国高炉开工率 (247家) 2024 2022 2023 2025 2026 85 % 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 图 31: 上周, 钢材周表观消费小幅回升 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1300 力啊 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源: iFind、申万宏源研究 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。上周(12月28日至01月03日),石化链中,纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同 ...
国内高频 | 假期提振下人流出行走强(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2026-01-06 16:03
文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿 佩璇 报告正文 1、生产高频跟踪:工业生产走势分化,建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中,高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。 上周(12月28日至01月03日),高炉开工率环比0.7%,同比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%;钢材表观消费环比 0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落,环比-2.5%。 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。 上周(12月28日至01月03日),石化链中,纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同比回落4.3个百分点至-2.4%;PTA开工率环比0.2%、同比回落 1.8个百分点至-8.4%。下游消费链中,涤纶长丝开工率环比0.3%、同比上升0.8个百分点至1.8%;汽车半钢胎开工率环比-2.7%、同比回落2.1个百分点至-9.2%。 图 33: 上周,纯碱开工率同比回落 纯碱开工率 - 2022 · 2024 =2023 ■ 2026 = 另一 2025 100 90 80 70 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月12月 资料来源:Wind、申万宏源研究 图 34: 上周,PTA 开工率同比回落 国内PTA开工率 ...