证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-21 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2928.93 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2367.56 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《节后猪价宽幅下跌》 - 2025.10.14 农林牧渔行业报告 （2025.10.13-2025.10.19） 猪价止跌，9 月产能去化 ⚫ 行情回顾：调整下跌 上周市场调整，农业板块亦随之下行。农林牧渔（申万）指数则 累计下跌 2.20%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 13 位。除动物 保健外，其余农业子板块均下跌。 ⚫ 猪：价格止跌，9 月产能调减 上周全国猪价先降后涨。前半周全国生猪均价延续前期跌势至 10.87 元/公斤，连创新低。下半周猪价低位反弹，截至 10 月 19 日， 全国猪价微涨至 11.03 元/公斤。短期看，猪价或已阶段 ...

资料显示，深圳市京基智农时代股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市罗湖区桂园街道老围社区蔡屋围京基一 百大厦A座7101，成立日期1979年1月1日，上市日期1994年11月1日，公司主营业务涉及现代农业和房 地产业,主要包括:种猪、肉猪养殖与销售;种鸡、肉鸡养殖与销售;饲料生产与销售;房地产开发、房地产 租赁。主营业务收入构成为：猪业产品79.38%，饲料产品11.67%，商品房5.38%，房屋及土地租赁 1.36%，禽业产品1.29%，酒店业务0.83%，其他0.07%，金融0.01%，商业贸易0.00%。 京基智农所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-生猪养殖。所属概念板块包括：养鸡、土地流转、猪肉概 念、小盘、乡村振兴等。 10月21日，京基智农盘中上涨2.02%，截至13:04，报17.16元/股，成交1.64亿元，换手率1.84%，总市值 91.00亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出908.25万元，特大单买入2232.07万元，占比13.64%，卖出2859.90万 元，占比17.47%；大单买入4545.33万元，占比27.77%，卖出4825.75万元，占比29.48%。 京基智农今年以来股价跌0.73 ...

资金流向来看，据Wind数据，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）昨日获资金净流入超1638万元，近7个交易日 （10月10日-10月20日）获资金连续净流入近1.5亿元。 证券时报指出，猪价"跌跌不休"导致生猪养殖业陷入全面亏损状态。在上市公司层面，最大生猪养殖企 业牧原股份披露的2025年9月份销售简报显示，9月其商品猪销售均价12.88元/公斤，同比变动-30.94%； 商品猪销售收入90.66亿元，同比变动-22.46%。对于中小养殖户来说，在猪价持续低于成本线情况下， 资金链断裂风险越来越大。数据显示，当前，自繁自养模式下每头猪亏损高达50多元，外购仔猪育肥的 养殖户更是每头猪亏损已经达到约150元。 国金证券分析认为，猪价快速下跌产生抗价情绪，二次育肥入场使得价格小幅反弹，目前猪价仍处于下 跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅下 降，本周生猪出栏均重为128.25公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月 生猪出栏环比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策 端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续 ...

证券研究报告 策略 资金透视：交易型资金小幅降温 2025 年 10 月 21 日│中国内地 策略周报 核心观点 上周海外风险扰动下，市场缩量震荡，我们此前提示，市场赚钱效应指标、 情绪指标已回落至历史中枢水平，资金指标降温或是衡量市场回调是否充分 的重要指标。我们观测到各类资金投资行为分化但整体仍在活跃区间，承接 动力仍存：1）交易型资金热度回落，散户资金、融资资金均转向净流出， 融资余额净流入速率显著放缓，但以融资成交额占比衡量的交易型资金活跃 度仍在高位水平；2）但配置型资金"抄底"意愿有所回升，公募基金仓位 自 8 月中旬后首次出现回升迹象，以 EPFR 统计的主动配置型外资上期净 流入规模创 2025 年以来新高。 交易型资金仍在活跃区间 上周，交易型资金热度稍有回落，但仍在活跃区间：1）上周参与交易的投 资者数量边际回落至 9 月初水平，以小单交易统计的散户资金转向净流出 137 亿元；2）9 月底以来，融资余额净流入速率显著放缓，上周再度转向 净流出，融资活跃度环比回落至 11.0%，为 2025 年 9 月以来最低值，但仍 在 2016 年以来高位水平；2）私募基金备案数量环比回升至 270 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： ＃summary＃ 每日报告 期货方面，20 日生猪主力 2601 合约小幅高开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 12280 元/吨，最低 11800 元/吨，收盘报 12155 元/吨，较昨日涨 2.88%，指数总 持仓减少 9613 手至 290797 手。现货方面，20 日全国外三元均价 11.27 元/公斤， 较昨日涨 0.1 元/公斤。 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei ...

融券方面，牧原股份10月20日融券偿还1.65万股，融券卖出2.29万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 113.31万元；融券余量33.64万股，融券余额1664.58万元，超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 分红方面，牧原股份A股上市后累计派现265.76亿元。近三年，累计派现165.94亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，牧原股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1.49亿股，相比上期增加2047.15万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通 股东，持股4865.74万股，相比上期增加398.32万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第九大流通股 东，持股3468.03万股，相比上期增加345.23万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）位居第十大流通股东， 持股2543.26万股，为新进股东。汇添富中证主要消费ETF（159928）退出十大流通股东之列。 资料显示，牧原食品股份有限公司位于河南省南阳市卧龙区龙升工业园区,香港铜锣湾希慎道33号利园1 期19楼1920室，成立日期2000年7月13日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market News**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - **Strategy**: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - **Strategy**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - **Strategy**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - **Strategy**: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - **Strategy**: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].

国庆节假期期间，全国生猪需求整体呈现"旺季不旺"态势，主流成交价在11.0~12.2元／千克，川渝地区甚至跌破11元／千克。 国庆节假期后，生猪市场供应压力难以缓解，需求疲软已成定局，供需矛盾加剧。据我的农产品网数据，10月20日，全国生猪出栏均价为10.95元／千克， 同比下跌38.96%，低价区报9.80元／千克。 图为河南生猪现货价格走势 期货方面，国庆节假期后，生猪期货价格低开低走，增仓下探，主力合约在10月13日最低触及11120元／吨，创上市以来新低。近期生猪期货成交量与跌幅 同步扩大，表明市场对后续供需格局的悲观情绪进一步释放。当前生猪期现货价格共振下跌的行情并非单一因素主导，而是供应过剩、政策调控落地滞后、 消费疲软三重压力叠加所致，目前行业面临短期价格承压与长期产能出清的博弈。 政策传导落地尚需时日 此前，农业农村部频频召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，针对生猪产业发展提出了多方面重要举措，建议企业合理淘汰能繁母猪，适当调减能繁母猪存 栏量，减少二次育肥，控制肥猪出栏体重，严控新增产能。国家发展改革委和农业农村部于9月16日召开生猪产能调控企业座谈会，这是年内第3次涉生猪领 域的重要调控会议 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The retail sales growth is slowing down, with both commodity retail and catering revenues performing poorly. Appliance sales are particularly weak due to the cooling real estate market, while only a few categories like sports and entertainment products have seen growth exceeding 10% [1][3][4]. - **Pork Farming Sector**: The sector is undergoing a capacity reduction, with a focus on large-scale, low-cost producers like Muyuan and Wens, as well as significant improvements in New Hope [2][34][35]. - **E-commerce and Internet Sector**: Major players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are currently at low levels, with expectations for cloud business growth to accelerate to around 30% in Q3 [22][23]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Retail Sales Performance**: In September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was only 3%, a decline from August. This trend indicates a significant drop in consumer spending since the second half of the year [3][4][8]. - **Weakness in Commodity Retail**: The commodity retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of only 3.3% in September, the lowest for 2025, primarily dragging down overall retail sales [4][5]. - **Challenges in Consumer Market**: The slowing growth of disposable income, which fell to 4.5% in Q3, is a major challenge for the consumer market. Measures to increase income and reduce burdens are necessary to improve consumer confidence [8][9][10]. - **Beverage Industry Performance**: Notable companies like Nongfu Spring are expected to see over 25% growth in Q3, while the Dongfang Shuying brand is projected to grow over 50% [11]. - **Snack Industry Dynamics**: The snack sector, particularly Wei Long's spicy strips, has rebounded, with konjac products maintaining a growth rate of 40-50% [12]. - **Jewelry Sector Trends**: Brands like Chow Tai Fook have benefited from rising gold prices, achieving better-than-expected sales, while established brands have a competitive edge due to their brand strength and design capabilities [13]. - **Cloud and E-commerce Business Outlook**: The cloud business is expected to grow by around 30%, while traditional e-commerce is stabilizing with a projected 10% growth in customer management revenue [23][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Measures for Consumer Confidence**: Key policy measures include reducing burdens related to healthcare and pensions to increase disposable income and improve public service supply [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Alibaba and JD are recommended for their strong fundamentals and potential for recovery, despite current low valuations [22][26][27]. - **Pork Farming Capacity Reduction Logic**: The logic behind capacity reduction in the pork farming sector is strengthening, with a focus on large producers to stabilize prices [34]. - **Hai Da Group's IPO Plans**: Hai Da Group plans to IPO its overseas assets, which is expected to support long-term growth despite potential short-term dilution concerns [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various sectors, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.

生猪产业"寒冬"仍在持续。 国庆假期之后，生猪价格出现加速下跌，全行业陷入全面亏损局面。国家虽已启动多次冻猪肉收储，但市场提 振效果有限。在这种冷冻的市场环境下，"漯河样本"为养殖户在寒冬中送来温暖，帮助养殖户捂好钱袋子。 生猪价格加速下跌，全行业陷入亏损 10月10日，国家收储1.5万吨冻猪肉。这是国家连续启动冻猪肉收储的最新动作。但是市场预期仍然偏冷，在8 月和9月国家启动5次冻猪肉收储情况下，叠加传统的消费旺季中秋国庆双节，猪价也未能走出"旺季不旺"的尴 尬局面，导致节后市场进一步回落。 10月9日，国庆长假后第一天，生猪期货2511主力合约收盘报11595元/吨，单日跌幅达6.15%。10月17日，该合 约盘中一度跌至11020元/吨。10月20日，该合约价格有所反弹，但仍在11500元/吨下方。 其实，从今年年初，生猪价格就呈震荡下跌趋势，年中猪价反弹后再次下跌。根据农业农村部最新监测数据， 2025年10月6日—12日，生猪定点屠宰企业生猪平均收购价格为13.45元/公斤，环比下降3.0%，同比下降 29.2%，白条肉平均出厂价格为17.58元/公斤，环比下降2.7%，同比下降28.5%。而据中国 ...