证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略月报 2 月热点或将延续 1 月的科技、有色等方向 ——2026 年 02 月 A 股策略 率窄幅震荡》 2025.11.25 证书编号：S0500519120001 Tel：(8621) 50295323 Email：qh3062@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 相关研究： 2026 年宏观短周期和中周期有望形成向上共振格局 1. 《20251125湘财证券-策略研 究-12月等待政策定调，市场大概 2. 《20251222湘财证券-策略研 究-1月市场大概率继续窄幅震荡》 2025.12.22 我们预判 2026 年宏观中周期和宏观短周期均处于底部反弹的阶段，有望形 成向上共振格局。具体原因有：一是海外方面，中美贸易冲突缓和，有助于 减轻经济下行压力。二是"十五五"规划即将落地，新质生产力依然是重要 发展方向，随着人工智能等科技领域的快速发展，将有效推动我国产业升级。 三是 2025 年 12 月中央经济工作会议定调 2026 年宏观政策为继续实施更加 积极的财政政策、适度 ...

或由于上海重磅政策发布，今日（1月21日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）强势拉 升，场内价格盘中涨超2.1%，现涨1.77%，冲击日线3连阳，距离此前的上市高点（1.160）仅一步之 遥。 伴随火热的行情，资金积极进场布局！截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购2160万 份，拉长时间来看，近10日连续吸金，合计狂揽6.35亿元！ 成份股方面，白银有色、湖南白银、盛新锂能3股涨停！国城矿业涨超8%，中矿资源涨逾7%，永兴材 料、中稀有色等个股大幅跟涨。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 白银有色 | 10.01% | | 有色金属 | 工业会展 | 标 | 6351Z | 32.66亿 | | 2 | 湖南自银 | 10.00% | | 有色金属 | 製金属 | 自银 | 385亿 | 39.83亿 | | 3 | 盛新埋能 | 9.99% | no | ...

证券之星消息，1月20日能源金属板块较上一交易日上涨0.44%，博迁新材领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4113.65，下跌0.01%。深证成指报收于14155.63，下跌0.97%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 73.99 | 6.77% | 28.34万 | | 21.03亿 | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 91.45 | 1.61% | 16.16万 | | 14.66 Z | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 59.49 | 1.50% | 48.50万 | | 28.62亿 | | 600711 | 盛屯矿业 | 16.60 | 1.22% | 157.06万 | | 25.56亿 | | 002240 | 盛新理能 | 33.94 | 1.16% | 60.37万 | | 20.63亿 | | 002192 | 融捷股份 | 54.62 | 0.37% | 12.51万 | | 6.8 ...

涨停股方面，明泰铝业净利润预增超12%，高端化战略成效初显。1月19日晚间，明泰铝业发布公告 称，预计2025年归母净利润为19.5亿元至20亿元，同比增长12%至14%。公司同时预计2025年扣非归母 净利润为17亿元至17.5亿元，同比增长18%至21%。对于2025年业绩预增的原因，明泰铝业表示，其再 生铝产品低碳优势明显。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 明泰铝业 | 9.99% | --------- | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 铝 | 207亿 | 6.71亿 | | 2 | 南山铝业 | 5.86% | -5 | 有色金属 | 工业会展 | 铝 | 746亿 | 16.574Z | | 3 | 湖南白银 | 5.06% | 1 | 有色金属 | 震金属 | 白银 | 334Z | 22.17亿 | | 4 | 盤新埋能 | 3.82% | nn | 有色会風 | 能源会属 ...

格隆汇1月20日｜A股开盘，三大指数小幅高开，沪指高开0.06%报4116.37点，深证成指高开0.09%，创 业板指高开0.09%。盘面上，能源金属、燃气股普涨，部分乳业、存储芯片概念股调整。 ...

A股开盘，三大指数小幅高开，沪指高开0.06%报4116.37点，深证成指高开0.09%，创业板指高开 0.09%。盘面上，能源金属、燃气股普涨，部分乳业、存储芯片概念股调整。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors, such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions, in influencing metal price trends, despite a balanced supply-demand situation [1] Group 2 - Precious metals prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase attributed to positive U.S. employment data. Central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices through 2026 [2] - Silver's rental rates in London have decreased, but U.S. silver inventories are declining rapidly [2] Group 3 - Copper prices are under short-term pressure due to macro sentiment adjustments and revised demand forecasts from Nvidia, but tight supply and ongoing demand from AI and power grid investments are expected to support prices. The State Grid's projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan represents a 40% increase from the previous plan [3] Group 4 - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to mixed macro signals. Domestic new electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, while demand is weakening ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to inventory increases [3] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate as market sentiment cools following significant price movements and adjustments in trading regulations [3] Group 5 - Lithium carbonate inventories have begun to decrease, with demand showing signs of strength. The expected reduction in export tax rebates for battery products may lead to front-loaded demand [4] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into downstream electric new energy sectors to enhance competitive advantages [4] Group 6 - Rare earth prices are recovering due to policy support and pre-holiday inventory demand, indicating strong investment value in rare earths as strategic resources [5]

证券之星消息，1月19日能源金属板块较上一交易日下跌0.49%，盛屯矿业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4114.0，上涨0.29%。深证成指报收于14294.05，上涨0.09%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日能源金属板块主力资金净流出11.9亿元，游资资金净流入2.88亿元，散户资金净 流入9.02亿元。能源金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605376 博迁新材 | | 1.09 Z | 18.82% | -5452.99万 | -9.44% | -5414.17万 | -9.38% | | 002240 盛新锂能 | | -632.97万 | -0.42% | -7223.51万 | -4.82% | 7856.48万 | 5.25% | | 603399 永杉锂业 | | -921.99万 | -5.61% | 224.55万 | 1.37% | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends, despite a balanced supply-demand situation [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend supported by central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings [8] - Copper prices are under short-term pressure due to macro sentiment adjustments, but long-term demand from AI and power grid construction remains strong [10] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility due to mixed macro signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [10] - Energy metals like lithium are seeing inventory reductions, with expectations of front-loaded demand due to changes in export tax policies [11] - Rare earth prices are recovering, driven by policy support and pre-holiday stocking demand [11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold increasing by 3.17% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram and COMEX gold rising by 2.23% to 4,601.10 USD per ounce [8] - Silver prices surged, with SHFE silver up 22.82% to 22,483 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 13.37% to 89.95 USD per ounce [9] Copper - Copper prices have seen a slight decline, with SHFE copper down 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton and LME copper down 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton [10] - Supply remains tight, with significant labor actions expected to impact production [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with SHFE aluminum down 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton [10] - The processing operating rate has slightly increased to 60.2% [10] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory is decreasing, with demand expected to strengthen due to changes in export tax policies [11] - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supply, leading to higher prices [11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting strong performance and potential for upward momentum in earnings [1][4][5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown significant growth, with notable increases in net profits for companies like Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of macroeconomic factors, including U.S. inflation rates and China's monetary policy adjustments, on the industry [2][3][17]. - The ongoing demand for rare earth products and the strategic importance of metals like tungsten and lithium are highlighted as key investment opportunities [51][52][53]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 3.03% [10]. - Key stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Industry saw significant gains, while others like Youyan Powder Materials faced declines [10]. Key Focus Areas - U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, influencing market expectations for interest rate adjustments [16]. - The People's Bank of China announced measures to support economic growth through monetary policy, which may benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [17][18]. - China's foreign trade reached a record high of 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating robust demand for exports [19]. Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 116.67% to 134.60% in 2025, driven by effective inventory management and increased sales [20][21]. - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit growth of 47.80% to 53.71%, attributed to rising product prices and effective cost control [22]. Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price fluctuations, with copper prices at $12,803 per ton and aluminum at $3,134 per ton [23][25]. - Lithium carbonate prices have risen to 153,100 yuan per ton, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal sector [44]. Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise, with strategic initiatives in place to support the industry, including government policies aimed at enhancing the rare earth supply chain [51][52][53].