1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [9][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution sentiment has further fermented, leading to a strong price trend for new energy metals. The central financial meeting's mention of phasing out backward production capacity in an orderly manner has strengthened investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon, and there are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply. The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is a risk of bilateral price fluctuations for new energy metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis** - As of July 17, the spot prices of industrial silicon continued to rise, with the oxygen - passing 553 in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton and 421 at 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - In May, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - **Main Logic** - Northwest large factories are continuously reducing production, providing price support. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but some silicon factories have resumed production due to the price increase. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory tends to accumulate in the long term [8]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution sentiment continues, and the spot and futures prices have rebounded. The silicon price is expected to be oscillating with a short - term upward bias, but the slowdown in warehouse receipt removal will limit the upside [8]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis** - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.4% [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9,167.32 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [9]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain is volatile. The polysilicon futures price has continued to rebound, and policy expectations have significantly boosted the silicon price. The supply is expected to increase in June - July, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of reverse fluctuations if the policy is not implemented as expected [11]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of price decline if the policy expectations are not fulfilled [11]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis** - On July 17, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% to 67,960 yuan, and the total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 17,801 to 637,419 [11]. - On July 17, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 63,350 yuan/ton [12]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side disturbances have been hyped up. The current supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the supply - demand margin has improved. The price is likely to rise but the upside may be limited [12]. - **Outlook** - In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [12].

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

周期股，"王者归来"。 今天上午， 周期股全面走强，有色金属板块领涨，化工、煤炭、油气、钢铁等板块均上涨。 从个股表现看，万华化学、洛阳钼业、紫金矿业、 北 方稀土等龙头股上涨。其中， 北方稀 土（600111）上涨8.83%，盘中一度涨停，成交额为117亿元，居A股第一，也是上午A股唯 一成交额过百亿元的个股。 白酒、银行、保险等权重板块反弹。 AI方面，受OpenAI推出ChatGPT智能体影响， AI应用 端上午走势较强。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.34%，深证成指上涨0.3%，创业板指上涨0.26%。 对于稀土板块，中金公司表示，在供应边际增量有限的背景下，出口及国内需求预期改善将 推动国内稀土价格整体回升。全球稀土供应格局正在经历重塑，国内稀土和磁材企业，以及 海外稀土产业链相关公司有望迎来重估。 中信证券表示，近期稀土价格呈现稳定上涨趋势，主要受到供需格局改善和政策支持的推 动。在新能源、新材料等下游产业持续扩张的背景下，稀土需求将持续增长。供给端产能释 放有限，进一步支撑稀土价格走强。同时，国家相关政策不断出台，为稀土行业发展提供良 好环境。建议投资者关注具备资源和技术优势的龙头企业。 周期 ...

Market Overview - The market has been consolidating around the 3500-point level, with a slight increase of 13 points today, indicating a relatively strong overall trend [1] - The central bank has been actively injecting liquidity into the market through a continuous net injection of 7-day reverse repos for three consecutive days, suggesting a supportive funding environment [1] Investment Opportunities - Two sectors showing strong performance today are optical modules and printed circuit boards (PCBs), which are expected to remain active in the technology field [2] - The military and pharmaceutical sectors also demonstrated strong activity, with military equipment showing promising performance as earnings reports approach [2] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, has been a major driver this month, supported by new standards and batch procurement policies [3] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, including components and innovative drugs, is highlighted as a key area for investment, while also monitoring the potential recovery in real estate and other sectors like steel and energy metals [3] - Caution is advised against chasing small-cap stocks, as they tend to experience rapid price fluctuations [3]

2025.07. 16 本文字数：691，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 7月16日，三大股指集体收跌，上证指数报收3503.78点，跌0.03%；深成指报收10720.81点，跌 0.22%；创业板指报收2230.19点，跌0.22%。 沪深两市全天成交额1.44万亿，较上个交易日缩量1700亿。全市场超3200只个股上涨，近2000只 个股下跌。 | 全A | 淵 3275 | 平 211 | 跌 1928 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ANT FRAN | | | | 名称 | | 最新 | 福 | 涨幅 | | 上证指数 | | 3503.78 | -1.22 | -0.03% | | 深证成指 | | 0720.81 | -23.75 | -0.22% | | 北证50 | | 1415.98 | +3.88 | +0.27% | | 创业板指 | | 2230.19 | -4.86 | -0.22% | 能源金属板块领跌，永杉锂业大跌超8%，远航精密、天齐锂业、永兴材料等多股下挫。 银行股集体走弱，厦门银行、齐鲁银行跌超2%，贵阳银行、 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, highlighting the performance and outlook for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum [1][2][3][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold Price Outlook**: The gold price has shown a strong performance in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the second half due to ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures, including rising national debt and fiscal deficits [2][3]. - **Monetary and Financial Attributes**: The core drivers for gold's long-term performance are its monetary and financial attributes, which are expected to remain significant as U.S. debt and dollar credibility weaken [2][3]. - **Central Bank Support**: Global central banks' backing of gold reserves is anticipated to create a positive feedback loop supporting gold prices [3]. - **Silver Demand**: There is optimism for silver in the second half of the year, with a focus on its rigid supply and industrial applications, which are expected to drive price recovery [4][10]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum Trends**: The copper market is expected to show strong price elasticity due to low inventory levels, while aluminum has also seen a recovery post-tariff adjustments [7][10]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply of aluminum is tightening, with production capacity growth limited, which may lead to price increases [9]. - **Electricity Investment**: Strong investment in electricity infrastructure is noted, contributing to demand resilience across various sectors, including appliances and automotive [6][9]. - **Energy Metals**: The prices of lithium and nickel products are currently low, but there is potential for a bottom reversal if supply constraints are addressed [10][11]. Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The increase in tariffs is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the U.S., which may further support precious metals [2]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: Current global inventories are at historically low levels, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the future [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and growth potential in the precious and industrial metals sectors [11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment**: Despite short-term demand concerns, the overall supply rigidity in silver is expected to lead to a supply shortage, supporting price increases [4]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The concentration of supply in countries like Guinea may pose risks to the raw material supply chain, which should be monitored closely [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the precious and industrial metals sectors.

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称["上纬新材","国联民生","华西证券","哈投股份","东北证券","国泰海通","国海证券","国金 证券","华林证券","国盛证券","申万宏源","湘财股份","国信证券","中金公司","东方证券"] 板块名称["能源金属","机器人","券商","银行","锂矿","光伏"] 社融数据、机器人、券商业绩 看多看空社融等主要金融数据全部好于预期，表明市场资金增多且企业和居民借贷意愿增强；机 器人产业链有众多利好消息催化，有望实现突破；券商上半年多数业绩同比增速为正，虽昨日分 化但后续市场预期稳定。当下有券商等金融支撑行情，多数行业半年报预披露情况不错，市场将 形成震荡向上 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-15 硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源⾦属价格⾛势 趋强 新能源观点：硅供应收缩预期强化，新能源⾦属价格⾛势趋强 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，市场情绪转向偏乐观，新能源金属价格走势趋强。 中短期来看，供应端收缩预期强化，工业硅和多晶硅价格大幅上涨， 这在一定程度上对碳酸锂也构成较为正面的提振，后续密切留意产业 链动向，需谨防政策预期短期无法兑现但现实供需偏弱背景下，新能 源金属价格双边波动风险；长期来看，低价或有望进一步加快国内自 主定价品种的产能出清，比如：多晶硅和工业硅等，碳酸锂还处于产 能兑现阶段，若锂矿无实质性减产，长期过剩问题还将存在，这将限 制价格上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点："反内卷"情绪持续，硅价有所回升 多晶硅观点：反内卷政策延续发酵，多晶硅价格⾼位运⾏ 碳酸锂观点："反内卷"背景下的供应扰动炒作，碳酸锂增仓⼤涨 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index rises, indicating a divergence in sector performance and investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3486.88 points, down 0.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10657.22 points, down 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index at 2211.03 points, up 0.64% [1][2]. - Overall, more than 4600 stocks in the market are experiencing declines, reflecting a bearish sentiment [2]. Sector Performance - The CPO sector is performing strongly, with active performance in liquid-cooled servers and Nvidia-related concepts, while coal mining, energy metals, and the power sector are among the worst performers [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows show a net inflow into sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and computers, while public utilities, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors are seeing net outflows [6]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows include Xinyi Technology (26.96 billion), Leo Group (17.58 billion), and Zhongji Xuchuang (17.34 billion) [7]. - Conversely, stocks facing substantial net outflows include Kweichow Moutai (10.42 billion), Baosteel (7.35 billion), and Changshan Pharmaceutical (6.85 billion) [8]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from Zhongtai Securities suggest that the market's performance this week is better than expected, with active funds likely to return as mid-year reports are released. They recommend identifying sectors where institutional and active funds may converge [10]. - The investment director from Qianhai Boben Fund indicates that while the market is adjusting, the overall adjustment space is limited, with significant support around the 10 and 20-day moving averages. They advise buying on dips, focusing on sectors that are likely to rotate and rebound [10].