Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically focusing on zinc, dated November 14, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown led to a recovery in risk appetite, but the increased policy divergence within the Fed and the hawkish shift of dovish voting members dampened the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Base metals on the outer market collectively declined, dragging down the center of Shanghai zinc to 22,425 yuan/ton, erasing the early-week gains. The correlations between the US dollar, the RMB, and LME zinc were 98% and 89% respectively this week, compared with 10% and 13% last week. The Shanghai-London ratio repaired to 7.40 at a low level, with the exchange ratio at 1.00. The pattern of a stronger outer market and a weaker domestic market persisted, with the import loss remaining above 4,000 yuan per ton. The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports. Near the delivery this week, the market delivery volume increased, while downstream consumption was flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. The domestic social inventory fluctuated narrowly around 160,000 tons. The premium of the Shanghai market over the December contract was 100 yuan/ton, Tianjin reported a premium of 130 yuan/ton over December, and Guangdong reported a discount of 60 yuan/ton over the December contract, narrowing the Shanghai-Guangdong spread. In terms of positions, both long and short positions held by investment companies or credit institutions decreased, with the net short position decreasing by 3,672 lots. The warrant holding report showed a bullish trend, and the concentration of large positions was low [8] Operation Suggestions - Due to the lack of key economic data during the US government shutdown, the remarks of Fed officials dominated the expectations. According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December dropped to 51.6%, with the probabilities of a cut and no cut almost equal, and market sentiment shifted. Since November, there have been successive deliveries at LME zinc warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. As of the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120, alleviating the tight supply situation. In China, the reduction of production at northern mines and the concentrated release of winter stockpiling demand by smelters led to a shortage of domestic ore supply. The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously. The SMM domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 200 to 2,650 yuan/ton, and the imported ore TC decreased by 4.17 to 98.37 US dollars/ton. The decline in TC squeezed the smelting profit, but the sulfuric acid price still rose steadily. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decline slightly month-on-month. With the end of the peak season downstream and frequent environmental protection warnings, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak, and the orders for galvanized and die-cast zinc were relatively light, making it difficult to boost the consumption side. Overall, as a series of data will be released after the US government resumes operation, the market's assessment of the impact will be more cautious, and LME zinc will maintain a high-level shock. Against the background of the realization of increased exports in China, the supply-demand pattern has improved marginally. The focus of the fundamentals has shifted to the support of the tight ore logic on zinc prices, but it is still constrained by the previous high of 22,800 yuan. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 22,300 - 22,800 yuan [9] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - The panic buying by smelters pushed the processing fees down continuously: Due to the winter reduction and shutdown of mines and the winter stockpiling demand of smelters, the processing fees for zinc ore continued to decline under the tight ore supply pattern. The average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive processing fee for zinc concentrate (after a 2/8 split) was 4,160 yuan/ton. The SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 US dollars/dry ton to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. One ton of zinc produces two tons of acid as a by-product. The mainstream transaction price of 98% sulfuric acid in the East China market was 920 - 1,130 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 98% smelting acid was 780 - 870 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in the price of raw material sulfur supported the stable increase of the sulfuric acid price from the cost side [18] - The overall refined zinc output in November may decline slightly: According to SMM, in October, China's refined zinc output increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to October increased by 10% year-on-year, lower than the expected value. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in November will decline by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year. It is expected that the cumulative output from January to November 2025 will increase by more than 10% year-on-year [18] - The opening of the export window led to an increase in zinc ingot exports: In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.61%. The cumulative import volume of refined zinc from January to September was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 19.27%. The export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons. The processing fees showed signs of stopping rising, increasing the production pressure on smelters. The overall performance of the peak season in consumption was not obvious, and the consumption support was insufficient. The social inventory increased to more than 160,000 tons. With the outer market stronger than the domestic market, the import loss of zinc ingots was more than 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export window opened. The export volume of zinc ingots by domestic smelters and traders increased to about 10,000 tons, and the import volume was mainly from long-term contracts [19] Demand Side - The operating rate of galvanizing was recorded at 57.59%, a month-on-month increase of 2.46%. The raw material inventory of galvanizing was 13,530 tons, and the finished product inventory was 365,600 tons. There were not many policies related to real estate and infrastructure during the peak season this year, and the improvement in project construction was limited. Orders for towers and photovoltaics showed some improvement. In the fourth quarter, it entered the seasonal off-season, and it was difficult for consumption to improve. Downstream traders purchased on a just-in-time basis, and there was no obvious improvement in enterprise orders. In November, the heating season began in the northern region, and environmental protection inspections increased, restricting the construction progress. Overall, the trend of ferrous metals was relatively weak. There may be a rush to complete projects before the Spring Festival, and the demand will be slightly postponed. The operating rate in the fourth quarter improved month-on-month but was weaker than the same period last year [20] - The operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy was recorded at 50.30%, a month-on-month decline of 0.65%. The raw material inventory of die-cast zinc was 11,840 tons, and the finished product inventory was 11,290 tons. The overall downstream demand was relatively light. The demand for traditional hardware orders such as luggage zippers, small ornaments, and medals was weak, and the overall demand for real estate hardware orders was also relatively light. The increase in aluminum and copper prices pushed up the production cost of alloys, and the net profit of enterprises shrank from the beginning of the year to less than 100 yuan/ton. Under this influence, there was also a certain wait-and-see sentiment downstream [20] - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was recorded at 56.31%, a month-on-month decline of 1.32%. The raw material inventory of zinc oxide was 2,365 tons, and the finished product inventory was 6,075 tons. In the rubber-grade zinc oxide sector, the orders from large tire factories were relatively stable, but the demand from some small and medium-sized enterprises was weak. In the ceramic-grade zinc oxide market, the demand in the coarse ceramic market was still relatively average, and recently, some enterprises reported that the demand in the high-end ceramic-grade zinc oxide sector had also weakened. In addition, the demand for feed-grade and electronic-grade zinc oxide was relatively normal [21] Spot Market - Domestic inventory decreased by 0.17 million tons to 157,900 tons: As of November 13, the total inventory of SMM's seven major zinc ingot markets was 157,900 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from November 6 and a decrease of 1,700 tons from November 10, indicating a decrease in domestic inventory. Affected by the continuous opening of the export window and the reduction of arrivals at warehouses due to smelter production cuts, the inventory in the Shanghai area decreased significantly during the week. In the Guangdong area, downstream consumption was relatively flat, and the spot outbound volume was lower than the inbound volume. At the same time, near the delivery, the market delivery volume increased, driving a slight increase in inventory. Overall, the inventory in the original three major markets decreased by 2,000 tons, and the inventory in the seven major markets decreased by 1,700 tons [22] - LME zinc had a cumulative delivery of 2,050 tons: Since November, there have been successive deliveries at warehouses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kaohsiung. On the 12th, LME zinc inventory continued to increase by 575 tons to 35,875 tons, a cumulative increase of 2,050 tons from the beginning of the month. The Cash-3M spread's back structure slightly converged from around 138 at the beginning of the month to around 120 [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has recovered, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Experiencing minor fluctuations [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories are supporting prices [2]. - Tin: The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan [2]. - Aluminum: Showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventories are accumulating, conflicting with risks in Indonesia, resulting in low - level fluctuations [2]. - Stainless Steel: Lacking upward momentum, but also with limited downside potential [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Price Movements**: - Gold:沪金2512昨日收盘价945.76，日跌幅 - 0.33%，夜盘收盘价963.32，夜盘涨幅1.78%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价4201.40，日涨幅1.65% [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日收盘价12073，日涨幅1.65%，夜盘收盘价12508.00，夜盘涨幅4.81%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价53.230，日涨幅4.22% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Gold:沪金25122510昨日成交260,377，较前日减少21,972；持仓124,540，较前日减少6,505；Comex黄金2512成交278,020，较前日增加38,441；持仓278,065，较前日减少13,785 [4]. - Silver:沪银2512昨日成交101,561，较前日增加31,704；持仓88,600，较前日减少5,753；Comex白银2512成交155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓122,583，较前日无变化 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: - Gold: Comex黄金（金衡盎司，前日）库存37,575,140，较前日减少154,316 [4]. - Silver: Comex白银（金衡盎司，前日）库存478,558,059，较前日减少546,636 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [6]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Movements**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价86,840，日涨幅0.24%，夜盘收盘价87430，夜盘涨幅0.68%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价10,897，日涨幅0.53% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数昨日成交159,202，较前日增加2,758；持仓552,936，较前日减少173；伦铜3M电子盘成交19,884，较前日增加6,498；持仓319,000，较前日减少5,408 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铜期货库存44,088，较前日增加1,124；伦铜库存136,250，较前日无变化 [8]. - Spread: LME铜升贴水较前日变动 - 6.43；上海铜现货对LMEcash价差较前日增加72 [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price Movements**:沪锌主力收盘价22680，涨幅0.02%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3069，跌幅 - 0.53% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量71426，较前日减少10276；持仓量105905，较前日减少1570；伦锌成交量9073，较前日减少844；持仓量220862，较前日增加946 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锌期货库存70890，较前日增加372；LME锌库存35875，较前日增加575 [11]. - Spread: ZN00 - ZN01较前日变动15 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [13]. 3.4 Lead - **Price Movements**:沪铅主力收盘价17660，涨幅1.26%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2067，涨幅0.51% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量55843，较前日增加24988；持仓量50539，较前日减少4568；伦铅成交量8189，较前日减少1092；持仓量155924，较前日增加2283 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪铅期货库存24686，较前日增加917；LME铅库存225225，较前日减少1500 [14]. - Spread: PB00 - PB01较前日变动 - 15 [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price Movements**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价292,440，日涨幅1.48%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价37,405，日涨幅1.93% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约昨日成交124,419，较前日增加74,980；持仓40,779，较前日增加4,387；伦锡3M电子盘成交180，较前日减少9；持仓13,988，较前日增加53 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Inventory:沪锡期货库存5,446，较前日减少136；伦锡库存3,055，较前日增加40 [17]. - Spread: SMM 1锡锭价格较前日增加1,500；长江有色1锡平均价较前日增加4,300 [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movements**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约收盘价21880；LME铝3M收盘价2880 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2821 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约收盘价21245 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Aluminum:沪铝主力合约成交量223798；持仓量420066 [21]. - Alumina:沪氧化铝主力合约成交量267963；持仓量412758 [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:铝合金主力合约成交量6280；持仓量15573 [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: - Aluminum: LME注销仓单占比6.19%；LME铝cash - 3M价差 - 23.69 [21]. - Alumina: No significant spread data mentioned [21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:近月合约对连一合约价差 - 235.00 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy have a trend intensity of 1, while alumina has a trend intensity of 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: - Nickel:沪镍主力收盘价118,710；1进口镍119,000 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力收盘价12,425 [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Nickel:沪镍主力成交量98,248 [24]. - Stainless Steel:不锈钢主力成交量139,703 [24]. - **Industry - related Data**: - Nickel: 8 - 12%高镍生铁（出厂价）909；镍板进口利润 - 1,577 [24]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B卷 - 毛边（无锡）宏旺/北部湾12,825 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0 [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals [3]. - The potential end of the US government shutdown and the weakening labor market indicators have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening the US dollar index and boosting copper prices. Meanwhile, the average price in the domestic spot market has risen, and the premium has slowed [12]. - For aluminum, funds are the core factor affecting prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry, and the upward trend of Shanghai aluminum depends on continuous fund inflows. For alumina, it is still in an oversupply situation [32]. - In November, due to intense competition for zinc ore in the smelting sector and a decrease in TC, the willingness to reduce or halt production has increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and zinc prices are expected to have upward momentum [56]. - For the nickel industry chain, weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The price of nickel ore may remain strong in the short term, while nickel iron prices have been decreasing, and stainless steel faces pressure [72]. - For tin, supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp decline in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin will maintain high - level volatility, but there is a risk of price decline [87]. - For lithium carbonate, it is currently in a state of being prone to rise but difficult to fall, maintaining a strong - side oscillation, but there is a risk of correction [103]. - For the silicon industry chain, the overall supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and they are expected to show wide - range oscillations [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price trends: Presented data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures prices, as well as price - to - ratio relationships [4][10]. - Price differences: Showed SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [5][7]. - Correlation: Illustrated the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar index [8][9]. - Fund positions: Displayed the positions of gold and silver long - term funds [10]. - Inventory: Showed SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [11]. Copper - Futures data: Provided data on copper futures prices, including Shanghai and London copper, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [13]. - Spot data: Presented copper spot prices and premium data from different regions, as well as import profit and loss and processing fee data [17][23]. - Scrap price difference: Gave the difference between refined and scrap copper prices [27]. - Warehouse receipts: Showed the quantity and change of copper warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and international markets [28][30]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price data: Provided price data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [34]. - Price difference: Showed the price differences between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [36][38]. - Spot data: Presented aluminum spot prices, basis, and price differences in different regions, as well as alumina basis data [42][44]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures, including Shanghai and London inventory changes [50]. Zinc - Price data: Provided zinc futures price data, including Shanghai and LME zinc, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [57]. - Spot data: Presented zinc spot prices and premium data, as well as LME zinc premium data [65]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of zinc futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [69]. Nickel Industry Chain - Price data: Provided price data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including the latest price, change, and change rate, as well as trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data [73]. - Downstream profit: Showed the profit data of downstream products in the nickel industry chain, such as the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate and stainless steel [82][84]. Tin - Futures data: Provided tin futures price data, including Shanghai and LME tin, with details such as the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate [88]. - Spot data: Presented tin spot prices and premium data, as well as the price data of tin - related products [93]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of tin futures, including Shanghai and LME inventory changes [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures price: Provided the price data of lithium carbonate futures, including the latest price, daily change, and weekly change, as well as the price difference between different contracts [104][106]. - Spot data: Presented lithium spot prices, including the prices of different types of lithium products and their price differences [108]. - Inventory: Showed the inventory data of lithium carbonate, including exchange inventory, social inventory, and inventory in different sectors [112]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial silicon: Presented industrial silicon spot prices, basis, and price differences, as well as futures price data and price differences between different contracts [115][116]. - Polysilicon and related products: Showed the price data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain [123][125]. - Production and inventory: Displayed the production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the production capacity and output data of silicon wafers [130][134].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, but in the short - term (November), there is no strong driving force, and the market is in an adjustment phase [3]. - **Copper**: The spot market's purchasing sentiment is high, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper is 86,535 yuan/ton with an expanding premium. However, when the price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton, downstream counter - offer willingness increases. Whether the copper price can break through the trading - intensive area remains to be seen [12]. - **Aluminum**: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry. For alumina, it is on an over - supply path despite some price increases due to environmental restrictions [33]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC dropped significantly due to intense competition for mines and limited domestic mine increments. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and low inventory supports the price. There is some upward driving force in November, and export and macro factors need to be monitored [58]. - **Nickel**: Weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The Philippines' nickel mine production and shipment are affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the price may remain strong in the short - term. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel demand needs attention [74]. - **Tin**: Supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption in Wabang and reduced concentrate imports. The Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock, with a predicted support at around 276,000 yuan. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increment is stable, and demand is strong in November. The market sentiment is positive. Technically, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend, short - term adjustment in November [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold and silver prices, and their ratios are presented in the report [4]. - **Spread Data**: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot spreads are shown [5][7]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are provided [11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: High purchasing sentiment, average 1 electrolytic copper price at 86,535 yuan/ton, and expanding premium [12]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are given. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 86,630 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17% [13]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented [19][21]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import profit is - 585.37 yuan/ton, and copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 3,393.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13.58% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: Shanghai copper's total warehouse receipts are 42,964 tons, a decrease of 1.88% [29]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Funds drive the price, but there is a contradiction with the industry. Domestic supply is stable, and demand is weak [33]. - **Alumina**: Some price increases due to environmental restrictions, but overall in an over - supply situation [33]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum futures, alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures are provided [35]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina are presented [37][39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international aluminum spot prices and premiums are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London aluminum warehouse receipts and inventories, as well as alumina warehouse receipts, are reported [52]. Zinc - **Market Outlook**: TC dropped in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the price, and there is upward driving force [58]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided [59]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented [67]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts and inventories are reported [71]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Weak demand in the off - season, affected by macro factors. Nickel mine prices may be strong, and nickel iron and stainless - steel demand need attention [74]. - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt numbers of Shanghai and London nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are given [75]. Tin - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and the price will maintain a high - level shock. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [90]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot products are presented [95]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin's warehouse receipts and London tin's inventory are reported [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is strong, and it is in a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are given [105]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot products, as well as their price differences, are presented [110]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest numbers, daily and weekly changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and various social inventories are reported [114]. Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, with wide - range fluctuations expected [116]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain are presented [123][124][125]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as the polysilicon inventory, are reported [130][134][143].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the supply improvement is limited. The demand is weak, and the traditional consumption decline cannot be compensated by the new - demand growth. With the expected end of the US government shutdown and improved market sentiment, long positions should be held. The subsequent trend depends on the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar [1]. Nickel - The macro - environment has some pressure, and the industry is multi - empty intertwined. The supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Stainless Steel - The policy and macro - drive are weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 12,500 - 13,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro and policy environment is favorable, and the capital is optimistic. The fundamentals show a slight increase in production. The short - term price has a strong reality support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The subsequent trend depends on the demand change in the off - season and the upstream project release [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contract [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expectations in each link. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The trading strategy includes low - level trial - buying in the futures market, selling put options in the options market, and holding or taking profits in the equity market [12]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract referring to 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will be in a game between event - drive and weak fundamentals, with the main contract referring to 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to relevant factors such as LME warehouse receipts and overseas macro - trends [15]. Copper - The copper price rebounded slightly. In the macro - aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price center. The main contract should pay attention to the 84,000 - 85,000 support [17]. Zinc - The liquidity risk of zinc is expected to be mitigated. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand is average. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost the domestic price. The main contract refers to 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is strongly volatile. The cost has rigid support, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract referring to 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as scrap aluminum supply and inventory changes [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 7.99% to - 14,989.79 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [1]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 7.99% to - 1,825 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 124.36% month - on - month. The SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.70% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 10.90% month - on - month [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon spot increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the futures price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,290 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties decreased [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased slightly [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The N - type polysilicon average price remained unchanged, and the futures price increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis decreased by 49.75% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% week - on - week, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory decreased slightly [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 202.3 yuan/ton to - 2,316 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum profile and cable operating rates decreased [15]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 13.58% to 3,394 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and the import volume increased by 26.50% month - on - month. The domestic social inventory decreased [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 596.07 yuan/ton to - 4,818 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% month - on - month, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.30% week - on - week [20]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 2.78% to 1,751 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily outlook on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industries dated November 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - Although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price in the long - term, prices are in a short - term adjustment phase with no strong drivers expected in November [3] Key Points - SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented in graphs [4] - Gold is related to factors like the US dollar index, 10Y US Treasury real interest rate, and long - term fund holdings [8][9][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are shown [6][15] - SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are reported [17] Group 3: Copper Core View - Copper prices declined with reduced positions, and both long and short funds are cautious. A price drop may increase spot trading volume and stabilize futures prices; otherwise, futures prices will continue to adjust [18] Key Points - Copper futures data shows that the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.08% [19] - Copper spot data indicates that Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is at 85,335 yuan/ton, down 1,255 yuan or 1.45% [24] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate TC, and refined - scrap price difference are provided [29][33] - Copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories are updated [34][36] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum price increase is driven by speculative funds due to supply - demand mismatch concerns, but the current fundamentals show weak demand and stable supply. Alumina prices may be weak due to oversupply [38] Key Points - Aluminum and alumina futures prices are reported, with SHFE aluminum main contract at 21,395 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.33% [40] - Aluminum and alumina price differences, spot data, and inventory information are presented [42][47][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - Zinc smelters' willingness to cut production in November has increased due to intense ore - grabbing and a decline in TC. With stable demand, there is a possibility of inventory reduction, and prices have upward drivers in November [61] Key Points - Zinc futures prices show that SHFE zinc main contract is at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [62] - Zinc spot data and inventory information are provided [70][74] Group 6: Nickel Core View - Nickel ore prices may be supported in the rainy season. Nickel iron prices have been falling due to weak demand, and stainless steel spot trading is sluggish with some mills announcing production cuts [77] Key Points - Nickel and stainless steel futures prices and related data are reported [78] - Nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit information are presented [84][86] Group 7: Tin Core View - The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and SHFE tin prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term with support around 276,000 yuan/ton [92] Key Points - Tin futures prices show that SHFE tin main contract is at 283,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [93] - Tin spot data and inventory information are provided [100][104] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate sector has the potential for short - term recovery as the Wenhua Commodity Index is falling. Downstream replenishment demand has increased, and the price is supported by stable demand in November [109] Key Points - Lithium carbonate futures prices and spot data are reported [110][114] - Lithium carbonate inventory information is presented [118] Group 9: Silicon Core View - Industrial silicon supply may be cut, and demand is weak. Polysilicon prices may fluctuate due to market meetings and policies [120] Key Points - Industrial silicon futures prices show that the main contract is at 9,020 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [121] - Industrial silicon spot data, price differences, and related product prices are provided [120][126] - Industrial silicon production, inventory, and cost information are presented [133][146]