Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the overall price index for bulk commodities in China is expected to show a trend of low first and high later, stabilizing and recovering, reflecting a healthier and more sustainable economic structure [1] - The average price index for bulk commodities in China for 2025 is projected to be 112.1 points, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - Among the 50 monitored bulk commodities, 10 are expected to see price increases, with notable rises in neodymium oxide (43.4%), refined tin (20.6%), and corrugated paper (18.5%) [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous price index is expected to stand out with an average of 131 points, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, driven by high growth in high-tech manufacturing and equipment sectors, alongside supply disruptions from incidents like the mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] - The black, energy, chemical, and mineral indices are projected to decline, with average values of 78.8 points, 99.1 points, 102.7 points, and 73.9 points respectively, reflecting decreases of 7.5%, 9.9%, 10.2%, and 10.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index is expected to fluctuate downwards, averaging 96.7 points, a slight decrease of 0.4%, attributed to effective implementation of national food security strategies and balanced supply and demand for key agricultural products [2] Group 3 - The overall stability of the bulk commodity market is highlighted, with a clear transition between old and new growth drivers, supported by government policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing growth [3] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and its substantial domestic demand potential are seen as the strongest foundation for the global bulk commodity market moving forward into 2026 [3] - The conference focused on enhancing international influence and building credible trade rules, discussing future trends, challenges, and opportunities in global bulk commodity trade [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - For the CTA strategy, the signals vary across different commodities. For example, the comprehensive signal for methanol is short, for glass is long, for iron ore changes from long to short, and for lead remains short [3][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Commodities in General - This week, the proportion of long positions in commodities decreased slightly. The factor strength of the black and chemical sectors declined, while that of the non - ferrous sector increased slightly. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in cross - section, and the chemical and agricultural product sectors are relatively weak [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, the demand factor weakened by 0.01%, the inventory factor increased by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.01%. The comprehensive signal this week is short [3]. Black Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the black sector decreased. The term structure shows narrowing differentiation. The positions of coking coal and coke remained low, and the short - cycle momentum of iron ore reversed and declined [3]. - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long [9]. Non - Ferrous Sector - The short - cycle momentum of the non - ferrous sector increased marginally, and the cross - section momentum differentiation narrowed. Copper and zinc are relatively strong, and tin is relatively weak in cross - section [3]. - The time - series momentum of gold declined, the position of silver remained high, and the cross - section differentiation at both ends widened [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - The long - cycle momentum factor of the energy and chemical sector decreased, and ethylene glycol is at the short end in cross - section [3]. Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - section differentiation of oil and meal narrowed, and the position of soybean oil decreased marginally [3]. Glass - In terms of strategy net value, last week the inventory factor decreased by 0.39%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.74%, and this week the comprehensive signal is long. The production of float glass enterprises, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized Chinese cities, and the continuous destocking of float glass enterprises all release long signals. The spot price of glass is neutral, and the profit of glass remains short [9]. Iron Ore - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor decreased by 0.22%, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.04%, and this week the comprehensive signal changes from long to short. The cumulative year - on - year decline of iron ore production has narrowed, the port daily dredging volume has decreased, the inventory of port iron ore and trade ore has accumulated, and the spot price center has moved down [11]. Lead - In terms of strategy net value, last week the supply factor increased by 0.02%, the demand factor weakened by 0.46%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.5%, the spread factor weakened by 0.33%, the synthetic factor decreased by 0.32%, and this week the comprehensive signal remains short. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, the inventory of lead has decreased, the position of the main contract of Shanghai lead has decreased, and the spread of lead has moved down [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The research aim of commodity meso - rotation is to combine the "subjective + quantitative" concept and put it into practice, reducing the specificity of factors, parameters, and models in the strategy, and focusing on interpretability and attributability [3][81] - The report constructs a monthly - frequency variety cluster meso - rotation model. The in - sample average annualized return rate is 17.79%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.44, the drawdown is - 5.70%, and the monthly win - rate is 68.98%. From January to November 2025, the out - of - sample total return is 15.43%, the drawdown is 1.09%, the monthly win - rate is 70%, and only three months record negative returns [3][4][83] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Rotation Mechanism and Variety Cluster Division - In the previous report, it was proposed that during the upward phase of the inventory cycle, the real - side is dominant, manifested as fundamental valuation; during the downward phase, the expected - side is dominant, manifested as macro - valuation. A research framework for the rotation of fundamental and macro - valuation under the cycle phase was put forward, and the meso - targets were implemented at the variety cluster level [6] - 16 variety clusters were selected, including 3 in the black sector, 3 in the non - ferrous sector, 5 in the energy and chemical sector, 3 in the agricultural products sector, and 2 in the precious metals sector, starting from January 1, 2019 [7] 3.2 Bottom - up - Fundamental Perspective 3.2.1 Fundamental Valuation Index Construction - The construction of fundamental valuation indexes in meso - rotation is similar to but different from traditional fundamental quantitative analysis. Due to differences in data among varieties, a special method is needed. First, pre - process the original data of inventory, profit, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, including pre - screening, filling missing values, 3σ standardization, and seasonal adjustment. Then, construct the variety cluster diffusion index. Finally, use the inventory diffusion index as the base diffusion index and design "logic gate" adjustment rules [10][13][14] 3.2.2 Back - testing Results - The strategy is rebalanced monthly. By adjusting the number of long and short variety clusters, it is found that the overall return is strongly correlated with the number of variety clusters. The average annualized return rate of the full - parameter group is 9.88%, the Sharpe ratio is 0.52, the drawdown is - 10.58%, and the monthly win - rate is 57.96%. The ls_4_4 group is selected as the strategy benchmark [22] 3.3 Top - down - Macro Perspective 3.3.1 Variety Clusters Expressing Macro Views - Through principal component analysis of Wind's five major sector indexes, three principal components are obtained. PC1 is the combined effect of growth and interest rate factors, with precious metals having a significant negative exposure and the other four sectors having significant positive exposures; PC2 is the combined effect of inflation structure and monetary policy expectations, with energy and chemical and agricultural products having positive exposures and the other three sectors having negative exposures; PC3 is the influence of RMB exchange - rate depreciation, with black and energy - chemical sectors having negative exposures and precious metals, non - ferrous, and agricultural products having positive exposures [28][29][31] 3.3.2 Macro - valuation Index Construction - Select growth, inflation, interest rate, and exchange - rate as macro indicators and construct monthly - frequency indicators. For growth and inflation factors, select proxy indicators, pre - process, seasonally adjust, filter, and synthesize them; for interest rate and exchange - rate factors, calculate them from high - frequency asset data and then reduce the frequency. The macro - valuation intensity index is constructed by multiplying the factor exposure after rolling regression by the factor momentum, summing them up, and then multiplying by the confidence indicator [40][41][49] 3.3.3 Back - testing Results - The strategy is rebalanced monthly. By adjusting the number of long and short variety clusters, it is found that the overall return decreases as the number of variety clusters increases, and the drawdown and volatility ease. The average annualized return rate of the full - parameter group is 10.13%, the Sharpe ratio is 0.91, the drawdown is - 11.17%, and the monthly win - rate is 66.94%. The ls_4_4 group is selected as the reference group [59] 3.4 Cycle Timing 3.4.1 Inventory Cycle Index Construction - Construct an inventory cycle index based on enterprise accounts receivable and inventory, which is the ratio of the increment of enterprise finished - product inventory to the increment of enterprise revenue. After data selection, cleaning, and calculation, the inventory cycle index is standardized to the [0,1] interval and lagged by one month [62] 3.4.2 Inventory Cycle Inflection Point Identification - First, determine the dynamic threshold; then, identify the initial inflection points; finally, filter the inflection points for the second time. After the second filtering, 5 adjacent inflection points are removed. From March 2012 to the end of 2024, there are 11 effective inflection points, and the average inventory cycle running time is 2 years and 1 month. After subjective adjustment, the average running time is 41 months [65][66][70] 3.5 Variety Cluster Meso - rotation Model - Based on the inventory cycle's up - and - down phases, conduct a binary rotation of the valuation model. In the inventory up - phase, the weight of fundamental valuation is 100%; in the down - phase, the weight of macro - valuation is 100%. The average annualized return rate of the in - sample full - parameter group is 17.79%, the Sharpe ratio is 1.44, the drawdown is - 5.70%, and the monthly win - rate is 68.98%. The out - of - sample total return from January to November 2025 is 15.43%, the drawdown is 1.09%, the monthly win - rate is 70%, and only three months record negative returns [74][83] 3.6 Summary and Outlook 3.6.1 Summary - The report builds a variety cluster fundamental valuation rotation model from a bottom - up perspective and a variety cluster macro - valuation rotation model from a top - down perspective. It also constructs an inventory cycle index and conducts a binary rotation of the valuation model based on the inventory cycle [81][82][83] 3.6.2 Outlook - Adjust the variety cluster division method and include active varieties such as new - energy silicon and lithium - Consider factors such as the currency and hedging attributes of precious metals and the geopolitical attributes of oil products - Construct a variety cluster trend state identification model based on volume - price characteristics and evaluate the trend confidence with valuation levels - Deploy a monitoring system from sentiment analysis and news for mid - cycle strategies to avoid risks [84]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the mid - stream digital transformation progress, and also provides an overview of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries including price and activity changes, along with relevant policies in production and service industries [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Information - In the production industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to build about 200 high - standard digital parks by 2027, achieving full digital transformation of above - scale industrial enterprises in the park, full coverage of industrial Internet applications, 100% digital transformation coverage of above - scale industrial enterprises, 100% dual - gigabit network coverage, and effective deployment and application of computing power infrastructure [1] - In the service industry, 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption in Beijing, including increasing bond market financing support, promoting the issuance of bonds by service - consumption enterprises, and expanding consumer credit [1] Upstream Industry - Black: Glass prices declined slightly [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [3] - Real estate: The building materials price index rose slightly [3] Mid - stream Industry - Chemical: PX operation remained at a high level, while PTA operation declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants increased slightly [3] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operation declined [3] Downstream Industry - Real estate: Seasonal decline in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Service: International flight frequencies decreased slightly [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agriculture: Corn price was 2161.4 yuan/ton with a 0.40% year - on - year increase; egg price was 6.5 yuan/kg with a 4.50% increase; palm oil price was 8700.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change; cotton price was 14848.8 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; pork average wholesale price was 17.9 yuan/kg with a - 0.94% change; copper price was 86020.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% change; zinc price was 22304.0 yuan/ton with a - 1.52% change [34] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum price was 21473.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change; nickel price was 117383.3 yuan/ton with a - 2.92% change; another aluminum price was 17188.8 yuan/ton with a - 1.36% change [34] - Black metals: Steel price was 3161.3 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase; iron ore price was 805.2 yuan/ton with a 1.71% increase; wire rod price was 3320.0 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase; glass price was 13.7 yuan/square meter with a - 2.14% change [34] - Non - metals: Natural rubber price was 14891.7 yuan/ton with a 0.85% increase; China Plastic City price index was 768.1 with a - 0.51% change [34] - Energy: WTI crude oil price had a - 0.37% change; Brent crude oil price was 64.2 dollars/barrel with a 0.22% increase; liquefied natural gas price was 4182.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change; coal price was 832.0 yuan/ton with no change [34] - Chemical: PTA price was 4628.8 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change; polyethylene price was 7005.0 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; urea price was 1630.0 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; soda ash price was 1218.6 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase [34] - Real estate: The national cement price index was 137.3 with a 0.51% increase; the building materials composite index was 113.8 with a 1.49% increase; the national concrete price index was 90.8 with a - 0.07% change [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, while the black sector has recovered. The black sector is relatively strong in cross - section, while the non - ferrous and agricultural sectors are relatively weak [3]. - The comprehensive signals of methanol, float glass, iron ore, and lead have different trends this week, with methanol and float glass showing long signals, iron ore showing a short signal, and lead maintaining a short signal [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Overview - In the precious metals sector, the time - series momentum of gold has declined, and the trading volume of silver has decreased significantly, with an expanding divergence at both ends of the cross - section. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum divergence has narrowed, and lead is relatively weak in the cross - section. In the black sector, the positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased slightly, but the short - term momentum time - series has recovered, and rebar is relatively strong in the cross - section. In the energy sector, the short - term momentum factor has declined, and the chemical sector is at the relatively strong end of the cross - section. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section divergence of oil and meal has narrowed, and the overall long - term momentum has stabilized slightly [3]. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.57%, the demand factor decreased by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.58%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.45%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side has turned neutral, the demand side has weakened from a long signal to neutral, the inventory side is long, and the spread side is slightly bearish [5]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the profit factor increased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly bearish, the inventory side is long, and the spread side has weakened significantly from a long signal to neutral [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.2%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.3%, and the comprehensive factor increased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned short. The supply side remains bearish, the demand side has turned bearish, the inventory side has turned neutral, and the spread side remains neutral [11]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.18%, the demand factor weakened by 0.17%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short. The supply side has turned neutral, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side remains bearish [11].

Industry Overview Upstream - Nickel prices declined, while aluminum prices slightly rebounded in the non-ferrous sector [2] - Glass prices slightly decreased in the black sector [2] - Egg prices slightly dropped in the agricultural sector [2] Midstream - The PX开工率 remained at a high level, while the PTA开工率 continued to decline in the chemical industry [2] - Power plant coal consumption was low, and inventory increased in the energy sector [2] - The asphalt开工率 decreased in the infrastructure sector [2] Downstream - Commodity housing sales in second - and third - tier cities declined seasonally in the real estate sector [3] - The number of domestic flights remained stable at a high level in the service sector [3] Macroeconomic Data Production Industry - From January to October, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.5% year - on - year, contributing over half and becoming the main engine driving industrial growth [1] - In the energy and key raw materials fields, high - quality coal production capacity continued to be released, but due to the global AI boom, there was a shortage and significant price increase in chips, with some prices rising by up to 60% compared to September [1] Service Industry - In October 2025, banks settled foreign exchange worth 1519.4 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 1394 billion yuan. From January to October 2025, banks cumulatively settled foreign exchange worth 14794.1 billion yuan and sold foreign exchange worth 14220.1 billion yuan [1] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 18649 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; the national general public budget expenditure was 22582.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - The national government - sponsored fund budget revenue was 3447.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; the national government - sponsored fund budget expenditure was 8089.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.4% [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price on 11/17 | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2174.3 yuan/ton | 0.80% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.4 yuan/kg | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.37% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14799.2 yuan/ton | - 0.28% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.0 yuan/kg | - 0.72% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 86553.3 yuan/ton | 0.01% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22380.0 yuan/ton | - 0.79% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 21920.0 yuan/ton | 1.94% | | | Spot price of nickel | 119033.3 yuan/ton | - 2.16% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 17343.8 yuan/ton | - 0.25% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3164.3 yuan/ton | 1.00% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 800.0 yuan/ton | 1.58% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3297.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.8 yuan/sq.m | - 1.43% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14900.0 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | China Plastic City price index | 769.1 | - 0.54% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 60.1 dollars/barrel | 0.57% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 64.4 dollars/barrel | 1.19% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4202.0 yuan/ton | - 0.94% | | | Coal price | 834.0 yuan/ton | 0.85% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4647.0 yuan/ton | 0.03% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6991.7 yuan/ton | 0.36% | | | Spot price of urea | 1630.0 yuan/ton | 0.15% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1218.6 yuan/ton | 0.89% | | Real estate | Cement price index (national) | 137.7 | 0.95% | | | Building materials composite index | - | 1.11% | | | Concrete price index (national) | 90.8 | - 0.14% | [33]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on US economic data and the impact of the government shutdown; in China, pay attention to policy support due to a marginal slowdown in the economy [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the weakening of the US dollar index and seasonal effects, but caution is needed before new data is released [2]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, with a focus on overseas variables such as US economic data, NVIDIA's Q3 earnings, and Sino - Japanese relations [5]. - Hold medium - term long positions in Treasury bonds, as they may benefit from weakening risk sentiment in the capital market, but short - term fluctuations are expected [5]. Commodities - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut, but may rise in the long term [13]. - Copper prices lack drivers and are expected to have a technical adjustment; aluminum may experience high - level oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin are expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel are at the bottom with limited further decline space; lithium carbonate may be over - inflated and risky for chasing highs; industrial silicon may have wide - range oscillations, and polysilicon may be weaker [17][18][24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range, with support from raw material costs and suppression from inventory [29]. - Iron ore has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and opportunities for shorting at high levels can be considered after the basis is repaired [31]. - Coking coal and coke may face short - term adjustment pressure but have limited downside space in the long term, and can be considered for long positions when the price approaches the lower end of the range [34]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oscillating and pressured state, with short - term attention on the support at $63 and long - term focus on geopolitical risks and macro - funds' hedging trends [38]. - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly; PX - PTA is expected to oscillate strongly with cost; MEG can be considered for selling call options to express a bearish view; methanol 01 may continue to decline; PP's short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and a 1 - 5 positive spread is supported; PE's short - term supply - demand has slightly improved, but the medium - long - term pattern is weak; pure benzene and styrene may have limited rebound height; fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has upward momentum; asphalt's short - term bottom space is limited, and winter - storage willingness should be noted; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [39][41][49]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward - shifted price center; logs can be considered for a 01 - 03 reverse spread strategy; propylene is expected to oscillate [70][72][75]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to economic data and the impact on the economy. Fed personnel changes have attracted market attention, and if Hassett is elected as the Fed chair, it may further open up the space for interest rate cuts. - Domestic: The economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the intensity and effectiveness of policy support are the focus [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the guidance of the central parity rate, and market settlement support. Attention should be paid to US employment data and domestic corporate settlement willingness [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was relatively stable, and short - term oscillations are expected, with a focus on overseas variables [5]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose slightly, and in the short term, they may continue to oscillate, while in the medium term, they may rise with fundamental support [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to adjust due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut. Long - term funds' gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings remained stable. Attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [13]. Copper - Copper prices declined slightly, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a decrease in basis. The supply was relatively stable, and the demand showed some improvement, but the price lacked a clear driver [17]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices declined due to profit - taking by some funds. The supply was expected to be tight overseas, but domestic demand was weak. Alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had certain support [18]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly. The smelting end had a strong demand for ore, and the TC decreased in November. The inventory situation needed to be observed, and the market had large differences between bulls and bears [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were weak, with cost support weakening. The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation was uncertain, and the demand for nickel and stainless steel was weak [22]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The supply was weaker than the demand due to limited resumption of production in Wabang. It was recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, but the downstream had no intention to replenish inventory. There was an over - inflation risk, and caution was needed when chasing highs [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon had a weak supply - demand pattern and was expected to oscillate widely. Polysilicon had a weak fundamental situation and was expected to oscillate weakly [25]. Lead - Lead prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation. The supply was gradually returning to balance, and it was expected to oscillate [27]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded slightly, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of rebar and high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The cost of iron ore was under pressure, and the profit of steel enterprises was declining [29]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded significantly, with an increase in shipping volume and a decrease in arrival volume. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. It was recommended to short at high levels after the basis was repaired [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices fell below the key support level. The supply of coking coal was marginally relaxed, and the demand was seasonally weak. However, the price had limited downside space in the long term [34]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded slightly due to environmental inspections, but the high - inventory situation remained unchanged. The demand was expected to decline, and they were expected to oscillate weakly [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices declined slightly, with a supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks. The price was expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at $63 [38]. LPG - LPG prices rose, with a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The inventory was decreasing, and it was expected to oscillate strongly [40]. PX - PTA - PX - PTA prices rose, with a strengthening of the aromatics blending logic and an improvement in the supply - demand of PTA. The processing fee was repaired, but the oversupply expectation remained [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG prices rebounded due to supply - side accidents. The demand was relatively stable, and it was recommended to sell call options to express a bearish view [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline, with pressure on the 01 contract due to high supply and limited cost support. It was recommended to hold short positions and consider reverse spreads [51]. PP - PP prices oscillated at the bottom, with an increase in supply and a slight increase in demand. The cost support was strengthening, and a 1 - 5 positive spread was supported [54]. PE - PE prices rebounded slightly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term supply - demand improved slightly, but the medium - long - term pattern was weak [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices rebounded at a low level, but the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the rebound height was limited [59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking was bearish due to weak demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking had upward momentum due to supply reduction expectations [60][63]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fell, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The inventory structure improved, and the short - term bottom space was limited. Attention should be paid to winter - storage willingness [64]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were limited by high supply and cost support; glass prices were under pressure due to high inventory and weak production and sales; caustic soda prices were affected by high supply and weak downstream replenishment [66][68][69]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp prices were slightly affected by macro - sentiment and inventory, with some support from supply - side factors. Offset paper prices continued to decline due to lack of fundamental support [70]. Logs - Log prices were low - volatility, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [72]. Propylene - Propylene prices oscillated, with a supply - demand balance of supply reduction and demand increase. The demand side was affected by PP and other downstream industries, and it was expected to oscillate [75].

Report Overview - The report mainly analyzes the basic overview of China's PPI data, the composition of PPI weights, core driving industries, and forecasts the PPI trend in 2026 [1][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - China's PPI trend is determined by the combined effect of weights and price change amplitudes of various categories, with upstream resource and basic material industries as the core drivers [1] - Two methods are used to predict that the year - on - year decline of PPI in 2026 will narrow and turn positive, with the base effect contributing significantly to the year - on - year recovery [2] Summary by Directory 1. China PPI Data Basic Overview - China's PPI only includes the commodity production field, different from the US PPI which also covers services [7] - China's PPI uses two parallel classification systems: the dichotomy (production and living materials) and the industry - based method, with production materials dominating the PPI trend [11] - The weights of both classification systems are determined by the sales output value method, and they are adjusted every five years, with the current base period being 2020 [13] 2. PPI Weight's Composition and Core Driving Industries - PPI is calculated by weighted average of price indices of surveyed industries, and market generally uses "operating income" to estimate industry weights [16] - Industries like computer, electrical machinery have high weights but limited impact on PPI due to stable prices, while upstream resource industries such as coal, oil have significant influence [20] - In October 2025, the year - on - year decline of PPI production materials was 2.4%, with the mining industry having the largest decline, and among living materials, durable consumer goods had the largest decline [22][24] 3. PPI Trend Calculation - Based on the assumption of key commodity prices remaining stable in 2025 November, 2026 PPI year - on - year will turn positive in Q2, driven by non - ferrous metals, coal, and black/chemical industries successively [28] - Using the method of calculating year - on - year from month - on - month, it is predicted that the average monthly - on - month PPI in 2026 will be 0.02%, the annual PPI will be - 0.44%, and the year - on - year reading will turn positive in Q3 [30]