Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week, with the fundamentals loosening. The market's risk preference was affected by the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease, tightening the supply at the ore end. The price of ferronickel has been continuously decreasing due to weak downstream demand [3][4]. - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless steel futures follows macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, it focuses on fundamentals. The demand for new energy is an important factor in the long - term, and the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand for stainless steel in the medium - term [4][7]. - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous high - selling and low - buying strategy for nickel and stainless steel has seen a decline in valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The overall trend of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was weak this week. The macro - level factors such as the uncertainty of the December interest rate cut and the repeated progress of Sino - US tariffs affected the market's risk preference. The new regulations for Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota application are strict, and the 2026 quota is likely to decrease. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but the actual transactions are stable. The price of ferronickel has been decreasing due to weak downstream demand, and stainless steel is also in a weak state. Although there are some positive macro - signals, the overall situation remains under pressure [3]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and monthly spread of nickel and stainless steel are currently stable, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. The previous strategies included buying Shanghai Nickel 2511 futures contracts, Shanghai Nickel 2511 call options, and Shanghai Nickel 2512 futures contracts, which have all been exited [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, in the case of inventory management, when the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory devaluation, it is recommended to short Shanghai Nickel futures and sell call options. In the case of procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options. Similar strategies are also provided for stainless steel [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Sino - US relations have eased, the Fed decided to cut interest rates this week, many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts mainly for the 200 - series, and the approaching rainy season in the Philippines may affect the supply of nickel ore [12]. - **Negative Information**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, the trading center of ferronickel has moved down, stainless steel has entered the off - season, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut is uncertain [12]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trends**: The nickel and stainless steel futures markets oscillated this week, with prices first rebounding slightly and then falling again. The cost reduction led to a more significant decline. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and some manufacturers announcing production cuts [13]. - **Fund Flow Analysis**: The net positions of key profitable seats have decreased, and the confidence in short - term price increases has weakened. For stainless steel, the inflow of funds is more cautious, with some funds shorting at high levels and reducing positions during the week [14]. - **External Market**: The LME introduced policies to limit large - scale near - month positions to avoid malicious short - squeezing. The external market was relatively weak this week, with inventory digestion difficult, which suppressed the upside space [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Under the current nickel price range, the profits of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain are under pressure. The profit space for producing electrowon nickel through different processes is thin, and some pyrometallurgical production lines are in a loss state. The profit of ferronickel has improved but has not turned positive, and there is still support at the bottom [39][40]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain is relatively stable. The inventory of nickel ore raw materials in China is high, but the supply may be affected by the rainy season in the Philippines. Many stainless steel manufacturers announced production cuts for the 200 - series, and the production of domestic ferronickel is at a historical low due to competition from Indonesian ferronickel [43]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The overall demand for the nickel industry chain has been weak for a long time. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased during the peak season, and the demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate in the new energy sector has recovered. However, the demand for stainless steel is relatively weak, and the peak season demand has fallen short of expectations. Although there are some positive factors in exports, the short - term demand adjustment is neutral [46]. 5.3 Balance Interpretation - In the short - term, the supply of the nickel industry is relatively abundant, with high - speed growth in the production of primary nickel in Indonesia and China. The main variable in the industry balance lies in the new energy demand. Stainless steel demand has limited marginal growth, but the construction and renovation of underground pipelines during the 14th Five - Year Plan may increase the demand in the medium - term. The new energy sector is in a tight - balance and short - supply state during the peak season, but it is difficult to reverse the overall oversupply situation [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel Market**: The Shanghai nickel market is experiencing a situation where short - term prices are supported while inventories are at a high level and accumulating. The bearish logic lies in high - level inventory accumulation at the smelting end and expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies and limited downward space for short - term pyrometallurgical costs. Long - term volatility may increase [2]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The stainless steel market lacks effective upward drivers and has limited downward imagination space. It is recommended to adopt a conservative low - level range trading strategy in the short term and a long - term bottom - seeking and re - long strategy. The market is in a long - and short - term game between expectations and reality [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The smelting end's inventory accumulation suppresses prices, but the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policies provides support. The substitution of nickel iron for nickel plates in the nickel alloy sector and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity of nickel prices [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The early over - export effect has been digested, and overseas trade consultations have eased tariff concerns. However, the traditional peak season has fallen short of expectations, and post - real - estate cycle consumption remains weak. Although the overall inventory has declined from the high level, the absolute inventory of the mid - and upstream is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel prices. The cost has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, but the marginal inventory accumulation rate has converged [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: China's social inventory increased by 1050 tons to 48746 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 4578 tons to 31388 tons, spot inventory decreased by 3528 tons to 13288 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 4070 tons. LME inventory increased by 1248 tons to 252102 tons [5]. - **New Energy**: On October 31, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 2, and +1 months - on - month to 4, 7, and 7 days respectively; on October 24, the precursor inventory changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days; on October 30, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.3 month - on - month to 6.9 days [5]. - **Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel**: On October 31, SMM nickel iron inventory was 29564 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and a 27% year - on - year increase. In September, SMN stainless steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a 4% year - on - month increase and a 1% month - on - month decrease. On October 30, 2025, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly increased to 947000 tons; the total social inventory of Steel Union stainless steel was 1831096 tons, with a 0.36% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 651940 tons, with a 0.4% week - on - week increase [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia's forestry working group took over a 0.3% area of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 198 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [7]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order, requiring the approval of the next year's mine RKAB to be completed by November 15 this year. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15. According to the transition clause, the approved 2026 RKAB before the order takes effect can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [7]. - US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides weekly tracking data for nickel and stainless steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, import prices, premiums, and spreads of related products [10]. 3.5 Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related raw materials over the years [11][13][15][17][19][21][23].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated October 31, 2025 [1] Report's Core Views Bullish Factors - Strong demand in the new energy sector, with increased production of ternary precursors, is driving up the price of nickel sulfate [3]. - High prices of nickel ore, and with the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, mines are more inclined to hold prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Weak fundamentals of refined nickel, with continuous accumulation of social inventory, suppressing the rebound of nickel prices [3]. - Insufficient demand in the stainless - steel sector, and the "Golden October" peak season was lackluster, with high social inventory [3]. Trading Advisory View - The macro sentiment and the current situation of fundamental oversupply counterbalance each other, limiting the upside potential of prices [3] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of SHFE nickel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1.16%, -0.96%, -0.98%, -0.98% respectively, and LME nickel 3M decreased by -0.90%. The trading volume decreased by -23.48%, and the open interest decreased by -1.0%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 17.61%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by -77.14% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of stainless - steel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1%, -0.66%, -0.35%, -0.23% respectively. The trading volume decreased by -33.67%, and the open interest decreased by -22.61%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by -0.56%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 15.18% [5] Spot Prices - The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel increased by 0.24%, 0.21%, 0.25%, 0.20%, 0.29% respectively [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1094 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons, stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.4 thousand tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 174 tons [7] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts showing the historical trends of stainless - steel futures closing prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel and stainless - steel inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profit margins, and stainless - steel production and profit margins [8][9][14]

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is facing a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market is also under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and its price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,770 yuan/ton and closed at 120,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,113 (- 10,149) lots, and the open interest was 107,897 (- 1,789) lots. The main contract showed a volatile downward trend. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and Powell's cautious statement on the December rate cut led to a short - term rebound of the US dollar, pressuring commodities, and Shanghai nickel closed slightly lower in the late session [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The mine side still has a strong attitude of holding prices, and the overall nickel ore price remains firm. The CIF tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from Indonesia's purchases in the Philippines was 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from the northern Philippine mine LNL was 43.5, unchanged month - on - month. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the shipping is coming to an end; the northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel iron is under pressure, and iron plants are not willing to accept the high price of raw material nickel ore. The domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia in November (phase one) is expected to fall by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was dull, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,532 (99) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,640 (- 66) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The nickel market has high inventory and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,805 yuan/ton and closed at 12,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,051 (+ 11,210) lots, and the open interest was 89,093 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, the main contract showed a volatile weakening trend. Overseas, the rebound of the US dollar pressured commodities; domestically, although the adjustment of real - estate policies released certain positive signals, the demand transmission of stainless steel in the real - estate field was lagging, and it was difficult to boost market confidence in the short term [3]. - **Spot**: The price was basically stable, and trading was still difficult. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 100) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 924.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel will still face the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].