即日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年7月30日 星期三 70015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79025 | 79075 | -50.00 | -0.06% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | વેર | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78910 | 78930 | -20.00 | -0.03% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | O | -10 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78930 | 78985 | -55.00 | -0.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 15 | 5 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 965 | aeo | +5.00 | 0.52% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -54.34 | -53.68 | -0.66 | - | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].

订稿） 有研新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"有研新材"或"公司"）是上海证券 交易所主板上市公司。为满足公司业务发展的资金需求，增强公司资本实力，提 升盈利能力，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）《中 华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）《上市公司证券发行注册管 理办法》（以下简称"《注册管理办法》"）等有关法律、法规和规范性文件的 规定，公司编制了 2024 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票方案论证分析报告。 证券代码：600206 证券简称：有研新材 有研新材料股份有限公司 方案论证分析报告 （修订稿） 二〇二五年七月 有研新材料股份有限公司 本报告中如无特别说明，相关用语具有与《有研新材料股份有限公司 2024 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票预案（修订稿）》中相同的含义。 一、本次发行的背景及目的 公司在日常经营过程中，需要使用一定规模的资金用于采购各种原材料，对 资金需求量较大，近些年来，原材料价格受市场需求、供给等因素影响，价格呈 现一定的波动。公司本次发行将进一步增强公司资本实力，优化资产负债结构， 提升公司的盈利能力和抗风险能力，从而实现股东价值的最大化。 本次发行的目 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's risk - aversion sentiment is easing due to the approaching effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs and the progress of trade talks. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the Fed's independence is also unclear. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and macro - economic data. Each metal has different trading strategies according to its specific situation [2][4]. 3. Summaries by Metal Types Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3314.63 per ounce; London silver closed flat at $38.17 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures fell 0.31% to 770.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.27% to 9200 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.633, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.417%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.15% to 7.1787 [2]. Important资讯 - Trump may announce tariffs on drugs, with global tariffs around 15 - 20%. Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September is 35.4% [2]. Logic Analysis - Market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and the short - term rebound of the US dollar pressures precious metals. In the long run, precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility due to uncertainties [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79010 yuan per ton, up 0.04%, with the index reducing positions by 617 to 498300 lots. LME copper closed at $9762.5 per ton, down 0.34%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248000 tons [6]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion [6]. Logic Analysis - Market is affected by tariff expectations. Domestic smelters maintain high production, and supply and demand are weak [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term pressure and oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2509 contract fell 14 yuan to 3260 yuan per ton at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [12]. Important资讯 - Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental control notices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for the stable growth of key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10000 tons of alumina. The national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.1 million tons to 94.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 84.01% [12][14]. Logic Analysis - Speculative sentiment cools, and the price is under pressure. The theoretical surplus expands, and the inventory has been increasing since June [15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure and oscillating, pay attention to cost support. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 10 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton at night. Aluminum ingot spot prices in different regions fell [19]. Important资讯 - China's aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20000 tons to 514000 tons. The price law is being revised. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. Huafeng Aluminum plans to purchase at least 360000 tons of aluminum products from Shaanxi Non - ferrous Yulin New Materials Group [20][21]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors affect the market. Domestically, the inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the spread between months may narrow first and then widen [22][24]. Trading Strategy - No specific strategy provided in the content. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20055 yuan per ton at night. ADC12 alloy ingot spot prices in different regions fell [26]. Important资讯 - The weekly output of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 800 tons to 141600 tons, and the total inventory increased by 4600 tons to 132400 tons. The price law is being revised [27]. Logic Analysis - Supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and demand is affected by different types of orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [28]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure. - Arbitrage: Consider positive spread trading for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [29]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 0.83% to $2805.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.31% to 22665 yuan per ton. Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1756 to 222600 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were between 22670 - 22775 yuan per ton, and the spot premium slightly increased [33]. Important资讯 - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 103700 tons. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, and the output of refined zinc is expected to increase. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating [34][36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can be held, set stop - profit points. - Arbitrage: Buy put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [36]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.15% to $2017.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16945 yuan per ton. Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2285 to 99700 lots. Spot prices in different regions had different quotations, and the market trading was light [38]. Important资讯 - SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 71700 tons. Guizhou Lukong Environmental Protection Technology's smelting system was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons of lead ingots. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [38][40]. Logic Analysis - The cost of recycled lead supports the price. The supply is affected by production inspections and losses, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has slightly improved [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable long positions can be held, beware of macro risks. - Arbitrage: Sell put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [43]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15230 per ton, and its inventory increased to 204036 tons. Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell to 122130 yuan per ton. Jinchuan nickel's premium increased to 2150 yuan per ton [42]. Important资讯 - Indonesia is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring a nickel smelter. A new nickel project in Indonesia is expected to start in Q4 2025, with an annual ore - processing target of 8 million tons [42][45]. Logic Analysis - The market atmosphere is weak, and the supply and demand of nickel are weak in July and August, with the price oscillating [45]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term follow the macro - atmosphere. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Sell deep out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel SS2509 contract fell to 12875 yuan per ton. Cold - rolled prices were 12550 - 12750 yuan per ton, and hot - rolled prices were 12300 - 12350 yuan per ton [48]. Important资讯 - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to drive the demand for stainless steel. A company plans to build a new stainless - steel slab continuous casting line with an annual output of 400000 tons [50]. Logic Analysis - The speculative atmosphere cools, and the demand is affected by tariffs and the off - season. The price is higher than the cost, and the market trades based on the macro - logic [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term return to the oscillation range. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [50]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures opened low, rose, and then hit the limit down. Spot prices generally weakened by 100 - 200 yuan per ton [52]. Important资讯 - There are rumors that the industry will hold an anti - involution meeting on August 4 [52]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, and the demand shows different trends. The price may fall in the medium - long term, but there may be a short - term rebound [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: May rebound in the short term, weak in the medium - long term. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for 11, 12 contracts/positive spread for 11, 10 contracts, participate in the butterfly strategy. - Options: Hold the previous protective put options [54]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures hit the limit down three times and then closed at 49405 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in different ranges [56]. Important资讯 - The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [56]. Logic Analysis - The "anti - involution" sentiment affects the price. If the capacity - integration meeting has positive results, the long - term expectation may reverse [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Participate with a strategy of futures long positions + protective put options after the correction. - Arbitrage: Long polysilicon, short industrial silicon for the long - term; reverse spread for polysilicon far - month contracts [57]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The 2509 contract fell to 73120 yuan per ton, and the exchange's warehouse receipts increased to 12276 tons. Spot prices increased [59]. Important资讯 - The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world and China showed growth trends [59]. Logic Analysis - The price limit - down was affected by news. The price range is 67000 - 83560 yuan per ton, and there may be a low opening [60]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term speculative atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Enterprises with long - term agreements can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [60]. Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 267310 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees showed different changes, and the market trading was light [63]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. The national industrial and information work conference was held [63]. Logic Analysis - Sino - US trade talks aim to extend the trade truce. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season [64]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price fluctuates with the market sentiment. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [64][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The current demand for copper is temporarily weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment momentum, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered to be established in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may have a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased from 250 to 95, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1699. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The current demand is affected by the off - season and weak trans - shipment. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view is maintained [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand in August is expected to be in the off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 1500, and the inventory of LME increased by 114. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50. Other indicators such as waste stainless steel price also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price premium increased by 5, and the inventory of LME decreased by 2625. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 239.11, and the inventory of LME increased by 80. Other indicators such as LME C - 3M also changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased from - 1105 to - 165, and the 553 East China basis increased from 45 to 1035. The number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Hesheng has a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 280. Other indicators such as basis also changed [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term gold has a bullish logic due to factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [1][2]. - Silver is under high - level pressure. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper. Although its fundamentals have little change, economic demand provides support, and its long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Copper is in a situation where bulls and bears are competing at a key psychological level. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and there is long - term confidence in copper [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure and is expected to have a supply increase and demand decrease in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rallies [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure due to factors such as the slow recovery of domestic primary lead smelters, the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises, and weak downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the domestic tin smelting industry is in a state of weak supply and demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure because of high - level imports of overseas bauxite, inventory accumulation during the off - season, and a weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11]. - Nickel is weak. Overseas nickel ore prices are stable, but downstream stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still pressure during the terminal consumption off - season [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is in a correction due to factors such as a decline in the "anti - involution" trading sentiment and the impact of a limit - down in coking coal prices [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. The statement of "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, but the spot trading volume is limited [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a weak downward trend. The overall inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment may return to the fundamentals after reaching a peak [1][15]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Due to the agreement on tariffs between the US and Europe, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, leading to an adjustment in both domestic and foreign gold and silver [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and China and the US are in negotiations. The short - term tariff risk has subsided, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping support the long - term bullish logic of gold [2]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold and 9050 for silver. Treat silver's short - term adjustment as a trading idea [3]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. Although the production of electrolytic copper is increasing, the demand has mixed performances. There are concerns about the impact of a potential 50% import tariff on US copper in August on China's copper and copper product exports [5]. - **策略推荐**: The signing of the US - EU trade agreement and China - US negotiations have eased tariff concerns. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [9,700, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [8]. - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. Domestic new smelting capacities are being released, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, although the rebound of black steel prices has boosted galvanizing demand confidence, it is currently the off - season, and enterprise开工率 is weak [8]. - **策略推荐**: The cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, abundant supply, and inventory accumulation during the off - season have put pressure on zinc prices. In the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease. It is advisable to short on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [2,650, 2,850] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a downward trend [10]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic market sentiment has changed, production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [11]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton, and alumina is expected to be under pressure [11]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices weakened significantly, and stainless steel fell under pressure [12]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas nickel ore prices are falling, and domestic nickel supply and demand are still weak. Stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still inventory pressure during the off - season [13]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000, 123,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced its positions and hit the limit - down [14]. - **产业逻辑**: The overall inventory is accumulating, and the price increase has led to inventory transfer from upstream to the middle. Although there are production cuts in some areas, the production still shows an upward trend. The new - energy vehicle market has a sales decline, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation has become a focus. The supply surplus for the whole year will narrow. The market may return to fundamentals after the sentiment peak [15]. - **策略推荐**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach with the price range of [70,000, 73,000] yuan/ton [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.07%, while Shanghai copper rose by 0.04% [1] - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.05%, and Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.31% [1] - Shanghai lead rose by 0.03%, whereas Shanghai nickel and tin both dropped by 0.58% [1] Group 2 - Alumina futures declined by 0.43%, while aluminum alloy increased by 0.10% [1] - Stainless steel futures fell by 0.46% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Huafeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. has signed a significant raw material purchase contract with Shaanxi Youse Yulin New Materials Group, expected to generate over RMB 7.2 billion in total revenue from 2025 to 2029, involving the purchase of no less than 360,000 tons of production raw materials [1][2][4]. Transaction Overview - The contract stipulates that the buyer will purchase a minimum of 360,000 tons of production raw materials from the seller between 2025 and 2029, with prices determined by monthly market aluminum prices [1][2]. - The total estimated amount from the contract exceeds RMB 7.2 billion, meeting the disclosure standards set by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1][2][4]. Approval Process - The contract was unanimously approved by the company's board of directors on July 28, 2025, and does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring, thus not requiring shareholder meeting approval [2][3]. Counterparty Information - The seller, Shaanxi Youse Yulin New Materials Group, has a good credit status and does not have any related party relationships with the company [3][4]. Main Contract Terms - The contract involves the purchase of raw materials with specific quantities to be determined by monthly orders, and payment will be settled batch by batch [4][5]. - Both parties are required to fulfill their contractual obligations and bear corresponding liabilities for any breaches [4]. Impact on the Company - The contract is expected to enhance the company's long-term cooperation with upstream partners, ensuring stable procurement of raw materials, which aligns with the company's development strategy [2][4]. - Successful execution of the contract is anticipated to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Copper - The market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut expectations in the US, but the timing of the cut is uncertain. In China, the spread of anti - involution sentiment is important for copper, and the policy's impact on smelting capacity clearance needs attention. The market's positive macro - sentiment boosts copper prices, but short - term sentiment ebbing risks should be noted. - On the fundamental side, copper demand weakens significantly as prices rebound, and combined with the traditional off - season effect, there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. However, China's macro - policies and low inventories support the copper price. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "looser supply expectations and weaker actual demand", and copper pricing returns to macro trading. The short - term positive anti - involution macro - sentiment boosts prices, but a callback risk due to sentiment ebbing should be watched. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the anti - involution policy brings expectations of capacity elimination and the risk of a squeeze due to a sharp reduction in warehouse receipts, which is beneficial to prices. But the rumor of large alumina plants'复产 also suppresses prices, and the market shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, the tight supply of bauxite in Guinea and low alumina futures warehouse receipts support price rebounds, and the basis weakens, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window. In the medium term, due to limited backward capacity, the impact of anti - involution on the alumina industry is mainly emotional. The restored and newly - added production capacity will increase spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400, and risks such as Guinea's policy changes and anti - involution policy follow - up should be noted. - For aluminum, the domestic consumption - stimulating atmosphere and anti - involution sentiment support aluminum prices, but the weakened Fed interest - rate cut expectations and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio leads to a bottom - probing trend in inventories. On the demand side, construction and real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports decline, and orders weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, with only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remaining resilient. In general, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, and the reference range for the main contract next week is 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum alloy market remained in a situation of weak supply and demand last week, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. Market transactions were mainly based on the strategy of spot - futures traders stocking up and hedging on the Shanghai Aluminum Futures to narrow the aluminum - alloy price spread, and terminal transactions were sluggish. The social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, and some areas were close to full capacity. On the supply side, low - priced overseas goods continued to impact the market; on the demand side, it was continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, with weak orders in the terminal automotive industry. Downstream die - casting enterprises generally had a pessimistic view of the future market, maintained a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy, and had a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in light market transactions. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to suppress price increases. It is expected that the market will show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,400 - 20,200 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton. However, the global zinc ore production in May and China's domestic zinc ore production growth in June were both lower than expected. The improvement in refined zinc supply lags behind that of the ore end, but with the TC in an upward cycle and the continuous repair of smelting profits, smelters' enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter operating rate is at a high level in recent years, stronger than the seasonal norm. The expectation of loose refined zinc supply still exists. - On the demand side, the strengthening of the zinc price on the futures market significantly suppresses demand, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. Among the three primary processing industries, only the galvanizing sector performs well due to the black - series anti - involution policy, while the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide industries enter the seasonal off - season, and demand weakens. The center of the spot premium continues to decline, and the low absolute inventory level provides price support, but domestic social inventories may enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. In the short term, under the background of China's anti - involution macro - policy, the positive macro - sentiment leads to a rebound in zinc prices, but the impact of the zinc consumption off - season and the expectation of loose supply are insufficient to support continuous price increases. A callback risk after the sentiment ebbs should be noted, and low inventories provide price support. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual tin ore supply remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue to be at a low level. In June, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, with shipments expected to start around the end of August. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, photovoltaic tin - strip orders in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. In South China, the electronic consumption entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises declined significantly. Considering the subsequent impact of US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of China's consumption - stimulating policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the market sentiment is positive, and combined with the continuous decrease in LME tin inventories, the tin price is strongly oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment and the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production [14]. Nickel - Last week, the Shanghai nickel futures market showed a strong - side oscillatory trend, and the central price of the main contract increased. The macro - sentiment provided a boost, while the fundamentals changed little. The Fed's attitude is currently wait - and - see, and the first interest - rate cut is expected to be in September. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the August 12 deadline. In China, the anti - involution atmosphere is strong, which boosts commodities. - At the industrial level, the spot price increased, and the spot trading volume of refined nickel was average last week. The premiums of various brands of resources remained stable. Recently, the nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is still +24. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to production cuts at some smelters in Indonesian industrial parks, and the supply is currently relatively loose. The nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement, and terminal demand is relatively weak. The nickel sulfate price is relatively stable, but the downstream ternary materials industry has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain at a high level, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories remain stable. Overall, the positive market sentiment boosts the commodity sector, the nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, which restricts the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market showed an overall strong - side oscillatory trend, and the spot price increased slightly. The macro - sentiment boosted the market, and spot - end agents and traders mostly maintained stable prices for sales, but market transactions were still average. In the macro - aspect, the US inflation expectation is currently mild, and overseas tariff risks still exist. The Fed's attitude is wait - and - see, while the domestic atmosphere is positive, with a series of favorable policies introduced, and the government's continuous increase in infrastructure investment boosts market confidence. - The nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is +24, and the supply is currently relatively loose. Driven by the improved sentiment, the nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. Stainless - steel mill maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, but the actual production reduction of steel mills is less than expected, and normal production is maintained during the postponed period, so the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Terminal demand is relatively weak. Due to the plum - rain season and continuous high - temperature weather, the recovery of manufacturing orders is slow, and procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Traders have more room for price negotiation but still struggle to increase trading volume. This year, the reduction of stainless - steel social inventories has been slow, and warehouse receipts have continued to decrease. Overall, recently, the market has been mainly driven by policies and macro - sentiment, and the spot - demand drive on the fundamentals is not obvious. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market rose significantly. The results of the Jiangxi mining - right approval are still to be verified, and some Qinghai salt - lake production capacities are at risk of reduction or suspension due to over - mining, increasing the volatility at the ore end. Coupled with the overall anti - involution background, the commodity expectations are boosted, and the market sentiment is positive. As of the close on July 25, the main contract 2509 closed at 80,520 yuan/ton. The lithium - ore price has accelerated its rise, and supply remains sufficient. Last week's production data decreased slightly. Demand is relatively stable, the seasonal characteristics are less obvious, battery - cell orders are okay, and the material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expected. However, due to the off - season and the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The entire industry chain is in an inventory - accumulation state, and the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down last week. The high - level inventory of upstream smelters is being reduced, while the inventory in other downstream trading links continues to accumulate. The fundamental logic has not changed, but in the short term, the combination of macro - boosting and news - uncertainty dominates the market trend. Funds are concentrated in the market for trading, and the market atmosphere is gradually pricing in the balance adjustment after the supply reduction or suspension. The trading core has shifted to the ore end. Recently, there are many market variables, which may amplify market fluctuations. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is driven by funds, and there are many unverified news items. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and wait and see. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and supply adjustments [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 841 yuan/ton, down 35.54% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread is - 53.68 US dollars/ton, down 3.76 US dollars from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 483 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan from the previous day; the Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) is 50 US dollars/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory was 560,900 tons, down 23.23% from the previous week; the electrolytic - copper rod operating rate was 69.37%, down 4.85 percentage points from the previous week; the recycled - copper rod operating rate was 27.31%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic social inventory was 114,200 tons, down 20.31% from the previous week; the bonded - area inventory was 82,200 tons, up 4.31% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 73,400 tons, down 13.17% from the previous week; the LME inventory was 128,500 tons, up 2.97% from the previous day; the COMEX inventory was 247,900 short tons, up 0.96% from the previous day; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 16,100 tons, down 96.72% from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,677 yuan/ton, down 100.8 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.85, down 0.01 from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 65 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, down 13.89% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 19,600 tons, down 39.69% from the previous month. The aluminum - profile operating rate was 50.50%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - cable operating rate was 61.60%, down 0.65% from the previous month; the aluminum - plate and strip operating rate was 63.20%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - foil operating rate was 69.60%, unchanged from the previous month; the primary aluminum - alloy operating rate was 54.00%, unchanged from the previous month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 510,000 tons, up 3.66% from the previous day; the LME inventory was 451,000 tons, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 spread is 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2512