Group 1 - Foreign institutional investors are actively exploring structural opportunities in the A-share market, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors [2][5] - Several QFI institutions have increased their holdings in stocks like RuiNeng Technology and YuanDa Intelligent, leading to significant price increases for these stocks [3][4] - As of November 6, foreign institutions have conducted nearly a thousand investigations into A-share listed companies, with notable interest in companies like United Imaging Healthcare and Zhaoyi Innovation [5][6] Group 2 - The recent performance of stocks such as Guoguang Chain, RuiNeng Technology, YuanDa Intelligent, and Lixing Co. has been strong, with Guoguang Chain rising by 43.67% since October [4] - Analysts from UBS and Morgan Stanley express optimism about the mid-term outlook for the A-share market, citing factors such as gradual profit recovery and continued net inflows of capital [5][6] - Six out of ten industries reported year-on-year profit growth in Q3, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and electronics achieving over 30% growth [5]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market continues to experience volatility, with large-cap indices leading the gains. The Shanghai 50 index rose by 0.89%, and the CSI 300 index increased by 0.82%, while the STAR 50 index showed a slight increase of 0.01% after significant fluctuations throughout the week [3][12] - In terms of style, cyclical stocks maintained strong performance, while stability and financial styles shifted from decline to growth compared to the previous week. Consumer stocks were the only style index to decline this week [3][12] - Large-cap stocks significantly outperformed small-cap stocks, with the core asset indices, such as the Moutai index and the Ningbo combination, both experiencing declines of 0.98% and 1.27%, respectively [3][12] Industry Insights - The third-quarter reports indicate a reversal in the "anti-involution" theme, with industries such as power equipment (up 4.98%), coal (up 4.52%), oil and petrochemicals (up 4.47%), steel (up 4.39%), and basic chemicals (up 3.54%) leading the gains. Conversely, sectors like beauty care (-3.10%), computers (-2.54%), pharmaceuticals (-2.40%), automobiles (-1.24%), and food and beverages (-0.56%) performed poorly [4][13] - The market has recognized a general profit improvement in industries aligned with the "anti-involution" theme following the third-quarter reports, gaining broader market consensus [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The outlook for the market suggests continued volatility, with a dual vacuum period in policy and performance expected from November to December. The lack of significant movement in household deposits indicates a potential weakness in future capital support, limiting upward space for A-shares [5][30] - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining a growth style, with a focus on sectors that meet the "dilemma reversal + high growth" composite pricing requirements, particularly in photovoltaic equipment. Additionally, sectors that have lagged since September and are positioned favorably in the "14th Five-Year Plan" are also recommended [5][30]

随着去年9月"并购六条"的出台，以"支持新质生产力培育、简化审核流程、强化风险防控"为核心的政 策红利正在持续释放，为并购市场注入了增长动力。 从公告口径来看，今年前三季度A股上市公司新增披露重大资产重组交易134单，同比增长83.56%，交 易总价值5160.3亿元，同比大幅增长120%。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，相比10年前的那一轮并购热，彼时标的多集中在文化娱乐和互联网行 业，本轮则聚焦在先进制造领域，高度契合新质生产力转型方向。 从券商业务的角度来看，并购重组已经从以往的"选择题"变为当前的"必答题"。今年以来，券商投行来 自增发的收入同比增长19%。此外，随着并购重组趋向产业价值重构，也考验着券商"三投联动"的能 力。 重组案例数量大幅增加 近年来，当IPO（首次公开募股）市场较为景气时，IPO是国内创投市场实现退出的主导渠道，在IPO收 紧以后，回购和股权转让则成为创投退出的重要选项，真正通过并购退出的占比偏低。相比之下，并购 则是美国创投市场的主要退出途径。随着去年9月"并购六条"的出台，持续释放的政策红利为并购市场 注入了成长动力。 今年以来，A股市场IPO规模触底反弹，再融资规模大幅增长 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a general upward trend this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the best performance at a gain of 1.1%, while the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Board Index had the worst performance with a decline of 0.6% [1][10][12] - The valuation of the Wind All A Index is currently at the 89.2 percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high valuation level [1][10][16] - The sectors of power equipment, coal, and oil and petrochemicals performed relatively well, with respective gains of 5.0%, 4.5%, and 4.5% [1][12][54] Group 2 - The market style this week leaned towards value, with large-cap value stocks showing a gain of 2.3%, while large-cap growth stocks only gained 0.3% [12][51] - The market is currently in a bull phase, but short-term fluctuations are expected due to influences from overseas markets, including the volatility of the US stock market [3][23][24] - The overall market valuation is at a relatively high level, with the PE-TTM valuation of the Wind All A Index at 22.2 times, which may lead to increased market divergence [23][24][36] Group 3 - Recent economic data shows that China's goods trade maintained a steady growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [2][20] - The import and export values for October were 3.7 trillion yuan, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [2][20] - The three major memory manufacturers have suspended DDR5 pricing, which may impact the supply chain [2][21] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while continuing to pay attention to TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors in the medium term [34][36] - The TMT sector is expected to become a main line in the mid-term due to liquidity-driven market conditions, while advanced manufacturing may gain attention if the market shifts to a fundamental-driven phase [36][38]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the allocation ratio for the computer sector is on the rise, indicating a favorable investment opportunity. The active management public funds' holding ratio for the computer industry reached 4.46% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from Q2 2025 and 2.24 percentage points from Q3 2024. The market capitalization of the computer industry accounts for 5.27% of the total A-share market, suggesting continued low allocation by funds [11][1][2]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, the top heavy holdings in the computer sector include AI computing power leaders such as Cambricon, Inspur Information, and Sugon, along with notable AI application stocks like Hikvision, Kingsoft Office, and iFlytek. Other significant holdings include financial IT companies and smart driving firms [2][14]. Investment Suggestions - The report continues to advocate for a strong embrace of the AI theme while also focusing on technology self-sufficiency and emerging industries. Key areas of interest include foundational software and electronic measurement instruments, as well as the quantum industry chain and satellite internet [2][16]. Market Performance - The report notes that the computer sector underperformed relative to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a relative decline of 3.16% in the past week. The overall performance of the computer sector was relatively weak, with a weekly decline of 2.08% [17][18][21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is expected to continue into 2026, with indices likely to experience a volatile upward trend but with slower growth rates, leading investors to focus more on fundamental improvements and verification of economic conditions [1] Industry Insights - The technology sector may face structural and phase-specific pullback risks, while resource commodities are likely to emerge as a new main investment direction following the technology sector [1] - The ongoing comprehensive competition between China and the U.S. could significantly impact A-share investments, suggesting a strategic focus on future industries and key resources, particularly in military-related sectors [1] Key Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include: - New Energy - Non-ferrous Metals - Basic Chemicals - Oil and Petrochemicals - Non-bank Financials - Military Industry - Machinery Equipment - Computers [1] Thematic Focus - Important themes to consider are: - New Materials - Solid-state Batteries - Commercial Aerospace - Nuclear Power - Cross-Strait Integration [1]

公 司 报 告 股价:111.16元 行情走势图 证券分析师 计算机 中科曙光(603019.SH) 扣非净利润表现良好，发布超节点拥抱产业机遇 推荐 ( 维持) 事项： 公司公告2025年三季报。2025年前三季度，公司实现营业收入88.20亿元，同 比增长9.68%，实现归母净利润9.66亿元，同比增长25.55%，实现扣非归母 净利润7.57亿元，同比增长70.17%。 平安观点： 公 司 季 报 点 评 HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,353 | 13,148 | 14,845 | 17,034 | 19,701 | | YOY(%) | 10.3 | -8.4 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 15.7 | | 净利润(百万元) | 1,836 | 1,911 | 2,387 | 2,950 | 3,631 | | YOY(%) | 18.9 | 4.1 | 24.9 | 23.6 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 11 月 09 日 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 研究助理： 杨逸帆(S0210124110046) yyf30689@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 电力、化工多主题走出右侧形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 电力、化工多主题走出右侧形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速 的主题指数数量分别有 2、25、25、5 只。其中，2 只见底形态的主题指数， 行业为交通运输、电力设备。25 只突破形态的主题指数，行业主要为计算 机、传媒、医药生物、国防军工。25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will remain volatile under the backdrop of declining liquidity. The three - dimensional timing framework continues to predict a volatile decline. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is in a slow - rising trend and oscillating within a channel, with strong upper resistance and lower support [1][7]. - The power grid equipment theme index has seen significant inflows. In the past week, there were large inflows into the power grid equipment theme, communication equipment theme, etc., while the innovation energy, state - owned enterprise digital economy, etc. had the most outflows [1][25]. - Industries recommended based on capital resonance are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, electric power and public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][31]. - The high - volatility and high - liquidity style is dominant this week, with the liquidity factor achieving positive returns. Among Alpha factors, reversal and cash - flow factors perform well. In large - cap stocks, factors such as profit growth and analyst expectations are dominant, while in small - cap stocks, R & D intensity and growth factors perform better [2][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Quantitative Views 3.1.1 Timing Viewpoint Liquidity is on a downward trend, divergence is on an upward trend, and the prosperity has rebounded again (financial sector up, industrial sector down). The three - dimensional timing framework maintains a judgment of volatile decline. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is in a slow - rising trend and oscillating within a channel, with no sign of breaking through the range [1][7]. 3.1.2 Index Monitoring By calculating the overall subscription/redemption shares of ETF products for each index, it was found that the power grid equipment theme had the largest inflow ratio in the past week, month, and three - month periods. The innovation energy, state - owned enterprise digital economy, etc. had the most outflows in the past week. The hot - trend strategy for ETFs includes industries such as photovoltaic semiconductors, environmental protection and new energy, energy and chemicals, and power grid equipment [25]. 3.1.3 Capital Flow Resonance The margin trading funds had the largest net inflow of 6249 million yuan in the power equipment and new energy sector last week, and the large - order funds had the largest net inflow of 1323 million yuan in the banking sector. This week, the recommended industries are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, electric power and public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][31]. 3.2 Factor Tracking 3.2.1 Style Factors The market this week shows the characteristics of "momentum continuation, high volatility, and high liquidity". The volatility factor and the liquidity factor both achieved positive returns, and the momentum factor also had a positive return [39]. 3.2.2 Alpha Factors - **By Time**: Recently, the reversal and cash - flow factors have performed well. The short - term reversal factor had the best performance in the past month, with a long - position excess return of 1.16% [43]. - **By Index**: In large - cap indexes such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, profit - growth and analyst - expectation factors are dominant. In small - cap indexes such as the CSI 1000, R & D intensity and growth factors perform better. As the market capitalization moves from the CSI 800 to the CSI 1000, the excess returns of most factors show an upward trend [45].

- The "A-Share Market Timing Model" evaluates the overall directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, funds, and technicals. The model generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively. The model's logic includes mean reversion for valuation and sentiment, and trend continuation for funds and technicals[2][9][15] - The "Style Timing Model" favors a barbell structure of dividend and small-cap styles. For the dividend style, the model uses the relative momentum of the CSI Dividend Index to the CSI All Share Index, the 10Y-1Y term spread, and the interbank pledged repo transaction volume. For the small-cap style, the model employs a trend model based on the difference in momentum and trading volume between small-cap and large-cap stocks[3][17][21] - The "Industry Rotation Model" uses genetic programming to directly extract factors from the volume, price, and valuation characteristics of industry indices. The model updates its factor library quarterly and rebalances weekly, selecting the top five industries with the highest multi-factor composite scores for equal-weight allocation[4][29][34] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" employs a macro factor risk parity framework, selecting four macro risk sources: growth above/below expectations and inflation above/below expectations. The model actively overweights favored quadrants based on macro expectation momentum, adjusting monthly[5][39][42] - The "A-Share Market Timing Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 36.03%, with an excess return of 8.86% over the Wind All A Index, which had a return of 27.18%[2][9] - The "Style Timing Model" for the dividend style yielded a year-to-date return of 25.04%, with an excess return of 7.83% over the benchmark, which had a return of 17.21%[17][20] - The "Style Timing Model" for the small-cap style achieved a year-to-date return of 78.29%, with an excess return of 30.25% over the benchmark, which had a return of 48.04%[22][27] - The "Industry Rotation Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 40.67%, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.96 percentage points[4][32] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" achieved a year-to-date return of 11.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.22, a maximum drawdown of 2.67%, and a Calmar ratio of 5.15[5][40][43]