LME有色金属库存日报 1. 铜库存122175吨，增加25吨。 2. 铝库存430700吨，增加3500吨。 3. 镍库存207576吨，增加294吨。 4. 锌库存119100吨，减少2375吨。 5. 铅库存268400吨，减少2550吨。 6. 锡库存1935吨，减少100吨。 金十期货7月18日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices experienced fluctuations and closed with slight declines: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.22%, and ChiNext down 0.22%. The STAR Market 50 Index rose by 0.14%. Over 3,100 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.44 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector stood out, with notable gains from companies such as Guangshentang (300436.SZ) up 16.55%, Iwubio (300357.SZ) up 15.9%, and others like Qianhong Pharmaceutical (002550.SZ) and Frontier Biotech (688221.SH) also experiencing significant increases. The National Healthcare Security Administration recently initiated the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement, focusing on mature "old drugs" while excluding innovative drugs from the procurement process [2]. Group 3: Robotics and Automation - The robotics and reducer sectors saw a collective surge, with Weichuang New Materials (688585.SH) recording six consecutive 20%涨停. The founder of ZhiYuan Robotics plans to acquire 29.99% of Weichuang New Materials at 7.78 yuan per share, potentially gaining control of 66.99% of the company. This move is perceived as a "backdoor listing" in the wind power sector [3]. Group 4: Textile Sector - The textile sector also showed strength, with companies like Jujie Microfiber (300819.SZ) and Lianfa Shares (002394.SZ) hitting涨停. CITIC Securities forecasts steady growth in shoe and clothing consumption by Q2 2025, with major domestic sports brands expected to achieve single-digit growth. The textile manufacturing sector is anticipated to benefit from recent tariff developments, alleviating concerns over tariff uncertainties [4]. Group 5: Declining Sectors - Sectors such as banking, insurance, precious metals, and industrial metals faced declines, with companies like China Ping An (601318.SH) and Xiamen Bank (601187.SH) experiencing downturns. The steel and coal sectors also weakened, with Liugang Co. (601003.SH) dropping over 9% and Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (600121.SH) down over 2% [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the harsh realities of the futures market, indicating that a significant majority of participants are unlikely to achieve long-term success, with estimates suggesting that only 0.1% will be profitable over three years and 0.01% over ten years [3][5][8] - In 2024, the domestic futures trading volume reached 619 trillion, with an estimated total fee of around 80 billion, leading to the disappearance of approximately 140,000 medium-sized accounts annually [6][7] - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on commodity investments, particularly how it may reduce demand for industrial metals like silver and copper while benefiting traditional energy sources like crude oil [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the current market dynamics for various commodities, indicating that the futures market is predominantly long for financial indices and certain metals, while short positions dominate in others like paper pulp and pure alkali [12] - It highlights the potential for a rebound in the glass market driven by policy and sentiment, suggesting specific trading strategies for both long positions and hedging [20][21][22] - The discussion on copper emphasizes the tactical implications of tariffs and the need for a realistic understanding of market conditions, suggesting that the current situation is more about short-term volatility rather than long-term direction [15][16]

Group 1 - The core idea revolves around the significant increase in copper shipments to the United States, raising questions about the motivations behind this move, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic strategies [1][4]. - The surge in copper prices is attributed to the U.S. aggressively stockpiling copper, which is essential for various industrial applications, thereby impacting global manufacturing [3][6]. - The article suggests that the U.S. may be using copper purchases as a strategic response to restrictions on rare earth materials, aiming to undermine the industrial capabilities of other nations [3][6]. Group 2 - The decline of copper inventories in London by 80% indicates a shift in global supply dynamics, with the U.S. emerging as a major player in the copper market [4]. - The potential military implications of copper stockpiling are discussed, with the suggestion that the U.S. may be preparing for future conflicts, leveraging its financial resources to secure critical materials [6][8]. - The article highlights the competitive nature of U.S. economic policies under Trump's administration, emphasizing a focus on monopolizing resources to maintain global dominance [8].

Group 1: Copper and Aluminum Inventory Changes - Copper inventory stands at 102,500 tons, reflecting an increase of 5,100 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory totals 384,350 tons, with an increase of 13,200 tons [1] Group 2: Nickel Inventory Changes - Nickel inventory is recorded at 202,620 tons, showing a slight increase of 150 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 8, 2025, including the likely range of resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 7, 2025, A - shares fluctuated downward, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly, while trading volume decreased. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and US and European stock markets showed mixed performance [15][16]. - International oil prices rose strongly on July 7, with the US oil and Brent crude oil main contracts posting gains. International precious metal futures closed with mixed results, and London's basic metals closed down across the board [10][11][12]. 2. Futures Contracts Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 8, 2025, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3927 and 3944 points and support at 3900 and 3879 points [2]. - In July 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to fluctuate strongly [17]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 8, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 109.18 and 109.25 yuan and support at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [34]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 is also expected to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 121.3 and 121.5 yuan and support at 121.0 and 120.7 yuan [38]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 8, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2510 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels at 779.0 and 781.3 yuan/gram, with support at 771.3 and 768.7 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8948 and 8994 yuan/kg and support at 8837 and 8814 yuan/kg [3]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - The copper futures main contract CU2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 79500 and 79800 yuan/ton and support at 79200 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures main contract AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 2992 and 2971 yuan/ton and resistance at 3071 and 3084 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures main contract ZN2508 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 21960 and 21850 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22130 and 22160 yuan/ton [3]. 2.5 Industrial Metal Futures - The industrial silicon futures main contract SI2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 8210 and 8320 yuan/ton and support at 7900 and 7820 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures main contract PS2508 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 37250 and 37810 yuan/ton and support at 36380 and 36050 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2509 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 64000 and 64500 yuan/ton and support at 63300 and 62800 yuan/ton [4]. 2.6 Building Material Futures - The rebar futures main contract RB2510 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3041 and 3030 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3065 and 3072 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 3163 and 3150 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3195 and 3200 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures main contract I2509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 724 and 720 yuan/ton, with resistance at 736 and 741 yuan/ton [4]. 2.7 Energy Futures - The crude oil futures main contract SC2508 is likely to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 515 and 519 yuan/barrel, with support at 505 and 502 yuan/barrel [5]. - The fuel oil futures main contract FU2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 8, 2025, and attack resistance levels at 2987 and 3001 yuan/ton, with support at 2957 and 2947 yuan/ton [7]. 2.8 Chemical Futures - The PTA futures main contract TA509 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on July 8, 2025, with resistance at 4754 and 4780 yuan/ton and support at 4686 and 4664 yuan/ton [7]. - The PVC futures main contract V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, with support at 4879 and 4858 yuan/ton and resistance at 4907 and 4921 yuan/ton [7]. - The methanol futures main contract MA509 is likely to fluctuate weakly on July 8, 2025, and test support levels at 2359 and 2336 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2400 and 2413 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Macro - economic and Policy Information - President Xi Jinping inspected Yangquan Valve Co., Ltd. to understand the situation of industrial transformation and upgrading in Shanxi [8]. - The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress launched an enforcement inspection of the Circular Economy Promotion Law [8]. - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves increased, and foreign exchange reserves also rose [8]. - Nine departments issued the 2025 Work Plan for the Action of Promoting Rural Revitalization through the Housekeeping Service Industry [8]. - US President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on multiple countries, which will take effect on August 1 [9]. - Goldman Sachs said the Fed may cut policy rates in September [9]. - The EU is seeking to reach a preliminary trade agreement with the US this week [10]. - The Eurozone's July Sentix Investor Confidence Index reached a new high since February 2022, and May's retail sales showed year - on - year growth [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. There is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement, so it is recommended to stay cautious [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are recommended based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market trends, such as going long, shorting, or staying on the sidelines. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds from the open market [5]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.46%, 0.62%, - 0.01%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver futures declined. The gold main contract closed at 777.06 with a decline of 0.54%, and the silver main contract closed at 8,919 with a decline of 0.28% [11]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [14]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is a risk of further decline in rebar prices, and the trend of hot - rolled coil may be similar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder at ports were reported [16]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while managing positions carefully [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: There is uncertainty in the short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and manage positions carefully [19]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The spot prices of manganese silicon in Tianjin and silicon iron in Inner Mongolia changed [21]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have an oversupply situation, and prices are under pressure. If the spot losses increase significantly, it is advisable to consider low - value call options [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward and broke below the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production significantly, which is expected to impact oil prices. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [24][25]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and resumed its downward trend. The spot spreads and trading conditions of high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil were reported [26]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Fuel oil supply is sufficient, and the cost of crude oil is declining. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable [27]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber declined. The Shanghai spot price decreased [29]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after the market stabilizes [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract declined slightly, and the spot price remained stable [31]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The PVC price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose slightly. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [35]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - term trend is bullish [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PX2509 contract declined. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [37]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance of PX is slightly improved but remains tight. Due to insufficient cost support, it is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle East situation [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate in East China were reported [39]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals of PTA have few contradictions, but the cost support of crude oil is insufficient. It is advisable to participate with a light position and control risks [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract declined slightly. The overall and partial开工 loads, inventory, and demand situations were reported [40]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant reduction in inventory provides support. It is advisable to be cautious about the downside space and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main short - fiber 2508 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost - benefit situations were reported [42]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Both the downstream terminal demand and cost factors have weakened. It is advisable to participate with a light position following the cost trend and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [42]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main bottle chips 2509 contract declined. The cost - benefit, supply, and demand situations were reported [43]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Although the raw material prices have weakened recently, the increase in device maintenance and inventory reduction provide support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin at low levels [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production, inventory, and device maintenance situations were reported [44]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to alleviate. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production line, supply - demand, and market price situations were reported [45]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but it is not advisable to chase the rise excessively. Short - sellers at low levels should control their positions [47]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined slightly. The production, inventory, and demand situations were reported [48]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and the regional differences are obvious. Although there is short - term bullish sentiment, the fundamental support is limited, and the sustainability is expected to be general [49]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp declined. The downstream product production, supply - demand, and price situations were reported [50]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved. It is expected that the price of the pulp market will remain weak and stagnant in the near future, and it is advisable to wait and see the changes in raw material pulp prices and downstream demand [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract declined. The market sentiment improved, but the supply - demand pattern remained unchanged [52]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is not advisable for investors to chase the rise [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper declined significantly and broke below the 5 - day moving average. The spot price and market trading situation were reported [53]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Shanghai copper is facing the test of the 80,000 - yuan integer mark. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the main Shanghai copper contract for the time being [53][54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [55]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the tin price will oscillate and strengthen [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [56]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil declined. The spot prices and inventory situations were reported [58]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - level support intervals; for soybean oil, consider paying attention to call option opportunities at support intervals after the price decline [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil closed lower. The international and domestic supply - demand, inventory, and price situations were reported [60][61]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to widen the difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed remained flat. The domestic import, inventory, and spot price situations were reported [63]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider paying attention to opportunities to go long on the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated strongly at a high level. The US cotton export, planting, and growth situations were reported [65]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [69]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The international and domestic production, inventory, and supply - demand situations were reported [70]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines [72]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose and then fell. The production, inventory, and price situations were reported [73]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to third - party production research data [75]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of pigs declined. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The short - term pig price may continue to be weak. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the weight - reduction degree in the south [77]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The supply, cost, and profit situations were reported [78]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: Consider short - selling on rebounds [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch declined. The spot prices, inventory, and demand situations were reported [81]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines. Corn starch follows the corn market trend [82]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of logs remained unchanged. The supply, cost, demand, and price situations were reported [83]. - **Analysis and Suggestion**: It is expected that the market will oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [85].

宏观金融类 文字早评 2025/07/07 星期一 股指 宏观消息面： 1、7 月 9 日是美国总统特朗普设定的关税谈判最后期限；特朗普称，7 月 4 日起将向尚未达成贸易协议 的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为 10%至 70%，并计划从 8 月 1 日起正式实施。 2、6 月份全球制造业采购经理指数为 49.5%，较上月上升 0.3 个百分点，连续两个月环比上升。 3、美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在社交媒体平台 X 上发文称，"美国党"于当日成立，以还给人民自由。 4、住建部：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.46%/-0.94%/-1.16%/-2.09%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.53%/-2.47%/-4.55%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.80%/-1.99%/-3.17%/-6.02%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.64%/-0.85%/-0.85%/-0.93%。 流动性：央行周五进行 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%。因当日有 5259 亿元逆回购到期， 据此计算，单日净回笼 49 ...

据日经新闻：嘉能可、力拓和托克正在寻求政府援助，以维持澳大利亚冶炼厂。 ...