Core Viewpoint - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) is taking measures to address "involution" and vicious competition in the steel industry, warning six companies with negative cash flow but increasing crude steel production for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Self-Regulation - CISA emphasizes the need for industry self-discipline to prevent vicious competition, urging all steel enterprises to adhere to this principle [1]. - The association plans to remind companies with negative cash flow yet increasing production to strengthen self-regulation and focus on key tasks such as stabilizing operations and improving quality [3]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Challenges - The steel industry is undergoing a critical period of transformation and green development, with a call for unity to face risks and challenges while ensuring economic growth and high-quality development [2]. - The recent government document outlines specific measures to combat "involution" and vicious competition, including the establishment of a price supervision system and enhanced cost monitoring [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Performance - In 2024, CISA reported a total profit of 42.9 billion yuan for key enterprises, a 50.3% decrease year-on-year, with an average sales profit margin of 0.71%, down 0.63 percentage points [5]. - The crude steel production for Q1 2025 reached 25.933 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while apparent consumption fell by 1.2% [5]. - The steel market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a continuous decline in steel prices, necessitating stronger industry self-discipline [5][6]. Group 4: Export Trends - The surge in steel exports, reaching 10.456 million tons in March, is attributed to domestic exporters anticipating uncertainties from international trade policies, marking a 5.7% year-on-year increase [5][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

美国总统特朗普：美国和英国将建立铝和钢铁交易区。 ...

今日早间，离岸人民币兑美元拉升逾200点，一度升破7.19。 分析称，特朗普关税不确定性继续令美股承压。据媒体援引来自英国和美国官员的消息报道称，英国接近与美国达成一项贸易协议，其中包括降低英国钢 铁和汽车关税的出口配额，该协议可能将于本周签署。报道称，该协议将使部分英国出口商品得以避免特朗普对钢铁和汽车额外征收25%关税所带来的全 部冲击。 今日早间，商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸高层会谈答记者问：近期，美方高层不断就调整关税措施放风，并通过多种渠道主动向中方传递信息，希望就关 税等问题与中方谈起来。中方对美方信息进行了认真评估。在充分考虑全球期待、中方利益、美国业界和消费者呼吁的基础上，中方决定同意与美方进行 接触。何立峰副总理作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将在访问瑞士期间，与美方牵头人美国财长贝森特举行会谈。 美股收跌 隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.95%，纳指跌0.87%，标普500指数跌0.77%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.42%。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.41%，法国CAC40指数跌0.40%，英国富时100指数涨0.01%。 欧美关税谈判方面，据知情人士 ...

晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with the price center shifting downwards and showing a weak trend [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term strong sideways oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continuously shift down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3]. - The view is that it will move in a sideways consolidation pattern, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum and Related Products - This week, some alumina plants completed their maintenance and resumed production, while new maintenance and production - cut news emerged. The national alumina operating capacity increased slightly week - on - week, reaching 83.62 million tons/year as of Thursday, a 740,000 - ton/year increase from the previous week. Alumina spot prices stopped falling, and there was a slight rebound in the northern region. Short - term prices are expected to move in a sideways pattern [3]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% compared with last week. Each sector showed a differentiated pattern: the primary alloy operating rate increased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 55.4%, but is expected to decline slightly; the aluminum plate and strip maintained at 68.0% but提货 was suppressed by the rising aluminum price; the aluminum cable remained stable at 63.6%, with risks from photovoltaic policies; the aluminum profile showed a structural recovery to 59.5% [3]. - As of April 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 673,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the domestic aluminum ingot inventory will fall to around 620,000 - 650,000 tons by the end of April [3]. - Macro - sentiment has slightly improved. In the later stage of the peak season, downstream inventory is being reduced. Aluminum prices are oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to event - induced fluctuations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including financial futures (stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals (gold, silver), shipping index, and multiple commodity futures such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities. It provides market conditions, news, fundamentals, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting the impact of factors like tariffs, economic data, and supply - demand relationships on prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy had a good start in Q1. The A - share market showed mixed performance, with blue - chip indices rising in the afternoon. Four major stock index futures contracts had different trends, and all were at a discount. Given the current situation, it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 at low levels to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remained stable, and the bond market closed higher. Although Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, the bond market priced more on the impact of declining external demand. It is suggested to go long on treasury bond futures on dips, participate in positive basis strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The sudden US tariffs on China caused market turmoil. Safe - haven funds pushed up the gold price to a new high. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection. Silver is affected by economic downturn and high inventory, and its price is expected to fluctuate between 29 - 34 dollars [9][11][12]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index showed a downward trend. The current spot supply - demand pattern is cold, and it is recommended to consider going long on the over - sold contracts in June and August in the medium term [13][14][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It presents a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Tariff policies increase price volatility. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should focus on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [17][20][22]. - **Zinc**: Tariff policies cause price fluctuations. The supply is strong, and the demand is relatively stable. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and the main contract should focus on the 20500 - 21500 support level [22][23][25]. - **Tin**: The macro situation is weak, and the supply side is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold short positions and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy has been implemented, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover. The main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [28][29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro uncertainty, and the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [32][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro sentiment has been digested, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 68000 - 72000 [36][37][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The de - stocking of five major steel products has slowed down, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider a long - steel and short - ore arbitrage strategy [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is rising, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [41][42][43]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved slightly, but the inventory is high. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [46][47][49]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply is decreasing rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][52]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The mainstream steel procurement has shrunk, and the inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The low domestic开机 rate boosts the basis, and US soybeans lack upward drivers. The price may face a short - term correction [56][57][58]. - **Hogs**: The secondary fattening transactions have declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The pig price lacks the power to rise continuously [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and be strong in the long term [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic price maintains a high - level oscillation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the long term [64][65].

日本首相石破茂。图/新华社 新京报消息，面对反复无常的"特朗普关税"，美国的亲密盟友们大多坐不住了。 据央视新闻客户端援引外媒报道，日本首相石破茂4月14日表示，虽然日本不会对美国产品加征关税进 行报复，但在即将与美国政府举行的关税谈判中，日本不打算做出重大让步，也不会急于达成协议。 石破茂4月14日在众议院预算委员会表示，"我并不认同不断妥协、尽快谈拢就是好的做法。"不让步， 不着急，不能不断妥协，这是迄今为止日本对"特朗普关税"作出的最严厉的表态。 然而仅仅在一周前，石破茂还表示，"必须与美国一次性就关税达成协议。"他还称越早与特朗普通电话 越好，同时希望在合适的时间访问美国。 不只是日本态度转为强硬。例如，即将于5月初上台执政的德国候任总理默茨4月12日对媒体表示："特 朗普的关税政策，正在把下一场金融危机的时间表提前。"针对美国可能退出北约以及退出全球化进程 的担忧，默茨说，"世界上不是只有美国。" 加拿大总理卡尼4月10日就警告说，加拿大正在通过实施反制关税来对抗美国的不合理关税，这些措 施"旨在对美国造成最大程度的痛苦"。最新消息称，一些加拿大的大型基金公司正考虑不再投资更多美 国私人资产，其中包 ...

3月29日，以"苏州最舒心，同心创未来"为主题的2025苏州苏商大会举行，海内外千余位苏商代表齐聚 苏州，深化交流合作，共话苏州发展大计。会上，苏州市政府发布《苏州市2025年优化营商环境行动方 案》《关于加快集聚青年人才的若干措施（试行）》，推出苏州市"百万人才新增计划""百校千企联 盟""百亿人才基金"三个实施方案，以"真金"体现"真心"。 会上，苏州本地民营企业家代表、苏州籍民营企业家回归代表、"新苏商"代表、新一代民营企业家代 表、海外苏商代表以TED演讲方式，讲述企业发展历程，弘扬"四千四万"和敢为人先的创业精神。10位 苏商代表共同宣读苏商倡议，发出坚守主业、做强实业的集体承诺，表达了四海苏商"携起手，爱苏 州"、共建美好家乡的共同心愿。 民营经济"新"潮涌动 恒力、盛虹、科沃斯、好孩子、波司登、金螳螂……苏商大会场外，一面红墙装饰有苏州企业商标、 LOGO，涵盖老字号和新品牌，吸引众多嘉宾排队合影、打卡。 "民营经济已成为苏州就业创业的主要渠道、技术创新的重要主体、发展新质生产力的关键力量。"江苏 省委常委、苏州市委书记刘小涛在大会致辞时表示，截至2024年末，苏州拥有民营企业86.5万户，规模 ...