聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——宏观情绪偏暖，关注反弹卖权机会 2025/11/28 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3650-4100 | 15.73% | 29.5% | | PX | 6300-7100 | 15.41% | 41.5% | | PTA | 4300-4900 | 12.37% | 17.9% | | 瓶片 | 5400-6000 | 11.03% | 31.2% | 1、近期大陆乙二醇装置意外停车较多：广西华谊20w停车，红四方30w临时停车，中化泉州50w因上游装置 问题降负 ，共计涉及产能100w。 source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- ...

国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月30日 聚酯数据周报 本周PX观点总结：供减需增，5-9正套。多PX空PTA/BZ | 供应 | 本周PX装置变化不大，国产开工率维持88.5%（-1%），中化泉州停车检修。周度产量74万吨。 GS装置后期有停车计划，浙石化1月CDU有检修计划，PX负荷预计下滑，PX供应端有收缩预期。亚洲开工率78.7%（-1%）。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负，个别装置负荷小幅调整，至周四PTA负荷调整至73.7%（+1.6%）。周度产量 144万吨左右。 | | 观点 | 芳烃调油需求减弱，但PX供减需增，2026年上半年供需格局仍偏紧，1月份浙石化PX负荷可能进一步下降，多PX空BZ继续持有，5-9正套。 多MEG空PX持有。 | | 估值 | PXN260美元/吨(+1)。PX-MX韩国FOB价差112美金/吨（+8），山东PX-MX价差1396元/吨（-9）。PXN价差上升至高位，生 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：短期震荡，中期偏弱 供应 开工新高，本周维持，平均开工97.5%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工99.5%。4季度开工预计在95%上下震荡。 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 策略 2）跨期：暂无 3）跨品种：1-2周内短期多01、02加工费（900以下） 风险 原油价格继续大幅下跌，上游装置意外停工 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 本周瓶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PX and PTA have limited supply pressure, polyester demand remains stable, and the futures market has support at the bottom. However, the continuous weakening of the terminal restricts the rebound momentum, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. The polyester sector shows a differentiated trend in the fourth quarter, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol having limited upward potential [33]. - For methanol, in the short - term, although the shutdown of Iranian plants and tight supply in the inland region boost the market, the high - supply and high - operation situation will continue, and the demand support is insufficient, so the upward space of the futures market is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the import is expected to decrease from mid - December to next year, but the demand increase is still weak, and the market may fluctuate widely. - For plastics, in the short - term, the social inventory continues to decline, but the supply remains high, and the demand support is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may not decrease, and the overall demand is expected to weaken significantly, so the plastic market may continue to be weak [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Geopolitical news: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to continue implementing the Geneva Conference results with the US. Russian President Putin said that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, but Russia will not make concessions on key issues, and negotiating with the current Ukrainian leadership is meaningless at this stage. OPEC+ is expected to maintain the current crude oil production policy and may establish a new mechanism to assess member countries' production capacity [5]. - Crude oil supply and demand: Russian seaborne crude oil imports decreased by 23% in the week ending November 25. US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a reduction in purchases by major buyers. US commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased in the week ending November 21 [6][7]. - Market sentiment: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut rising to 86.9%. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly [6]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: WTI crude oil increased by 0.65% week - on - week, PX601 decreased by 1.64%, TA601 decreased by 1.36%, EG601 increased by 1.33%, PF602 decreased by 0.93%, and PR601 decreased by 0.70%. - Spot prices: Naphtha decreased by 1.24%, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 0.96%, PTA spot decreased by 0.39%, ethylene glycol in East China increased by 0.34%, polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.40%, and polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.35% [9]. 3.3 Supply and Demand of Polyester Raw Materials - PX: The 800,000 - tonne unit of Sinochem Quanzhou has been shut down for maintenance, but the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical has increased supply. As of November 28, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.74%, and the output was 752,600 tonnes. Asian PX capacity utilization decreased slightly to 79.4%. Next week, supply is expected to decline slightly, and PX processing fees have bottom - end support [14]. - PTA: The restart of Shenghong's unit was offset by the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo and Sichuan Energy Investment units, resulting in a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.92%, and the output was 1.3747 million tonnes. Social inventory continued to decline. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's unit and the delay of Puyang's restart led to a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 62.67%. The restart of Hongsifang's unit and the planned restart of Huayi's unit are expected to increase supply next week, but supply is expected to decline in December [19]. 3.4 Polyester End and Terminal Situation - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.38%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. - Terminal: As of November 28, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.93%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.04 days, a decrease of 0.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days were 23.45 days, an increase of 0.60 days [20][30]. 3.5 Methanol and Polyethylene Data - Price trends: The futures price of MA2601 increased by 6.54%, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 3.71%. The futures price of L2601 increased by 0.28%, while the spot prices of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased [35]. - Methanol supply: As of November 27, the domestic methanol operating rate was 89.09%, and the output was 2.0235 million tonnes. This week, some units resumed production, and next week, Jiutai New Materials plans to resume production [42]. - Methanol demand: The overall downstream operating rate increased slightly, but MTO operating rate has limited room for further increase, and traditional downstream is in the off - season. The 1.2 - million - tonne acetic acid unit of Celanese has been shut down for maintenance since November 28 [45]. - Methanol inventory: As of November 26, the port inventory was 1.3635 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.83%, and the inland inventory was 373,700 tonnes, an increase of 4.19%. Iranian units have entered the gas - restricted shutdown state [48]. - Plastic supply: As of November 27, the domestic plastic operating rate was 84.51%, and the output was 684,800 tonnes. This week, some units were under maintenance, and some units resumed production. Next week, no units are planned for maintenance, and some units are expected to resume production [51]. - Plastic demand: As of November 27, the plastic downstream operating rate was 44.3%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The demand for greenhouse films is expected to decline, and the packaging film is still digesting previous orders, with a decreasing scale [55]. - Plastic inventory: As of November 26, the social plastic inventory was 471,100 tonnes, a decrease of 3.05%, and the two - oil enterprise inventory was 384,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9.43%. Manufacturers are actively reducing inventory [59].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA market: The intraday crude oil market showed weak oscillations. The gasoline cracking spread in the US narrowed, and the price of MX in the US declined. The positive impact of the gasoline blending logic on the PTA market ended, leading to a drop in the PTA market. However, the PX market remained firm under the influence of multiple factors. The increase in PX price was mainly driven by the support of gasoline blending value and the stabilization and recovery of the by - product benzene price. The export prospects of PTA improved due to India's cancellation of the BIS certification restriction on PTA imports, boosting the PX procurement sentiment. Currently, the PTA supply has slightly tightened, while the polyester industry's operating rate has remained stable, and the overall load has remained above 90%. The export prospects of domestic polyester are still optimistic [2]. - MEG market: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price could not support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. The commissioning of new plants continued to put pressure on the ethylene glycol price, and the spot shortage caused by low inventory was mainly reflected in the basis. The decline in coal prices reduced the price support for ethylene glycol. The subsequent export demand for textile and clothing and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil**: The price of INE crude oil rose from 445.0 yuan/barrel on November 26, 2025, to 447.6 yuan/barrel on November 27, 2025, an increase of 2.6 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1450.1 yuan/ton to 1379.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.89 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4484 to 1.4240, a decrease of 0.0244 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 829 to 826, a decrease of 3. The PX - naphtha spread remained unchanged at 268 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA main futures price decreased from 4684 yuan/ton to 4632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price decreased from 4635 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 204.2 yuan/ton to 196.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.9 yuan/ton. The on - disk processing fee decreased from 253.2 yuan/ton to 218.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from (31) to (36), a decrease of 5.0. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 121,036 to 123,197, an increase of 2,161 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price decreased from 3896 yuan/ton to 3873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (140.68) to (140.87), a decrease of 0.2. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3904 to 3900, a decrease of 4.0. The main basis decreased from 33 to 5, a decrease of 28.0 [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 86.48% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Increased from 73.44% to 74.77%, an increase of 1.33% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 61.48% to 63.48%, an increase of 2.00% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 89.19% [2]. 3.3 Polyester Product Situation - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6490, and the POY cash flow increased from (31) to (8), an increase of 23.0. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6760 to 6755, a decrease of 5.0, and the FDY cash flow increased from (261) to (243), an increase of 18.0. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7855, and the DTY cash flow increased from 134 to 157, an increase of 23.0. The filament production and sales rate decreased from 54% to 45%, a decrease of 9% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6380 to 6365, a decrease of 15. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 209 to 217, an increase of 8.0. The staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 53% to 41%, a decrease of 12% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips remained unchanged at 5550, and the chip cash flow increased from (71) to (48), an increase of 23.0. The chip production and sales rate decreased from 72% to 56%, a decrease of 16% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon. The device was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

Group 1: PTA Processing Fees and Supply Dynamics - PTA processing fees have seen some recovery but remain at low levels, with a current fee around 180 yuan/ton, up from a historical low of 80 yuan/ton in late October [1] - As of November 25, PTA operating load was at 71.17%, a decrease of 7.21 percentage points from the end of October, leading to a weekly supply drop to 1.42 million tons and a supply gap of approximately 40,000 tons [1] - Domestic PTA social inventory stands at 3.2488 million tons, significantly lower than last year's 4.5 million tons, indicating a faster destocking pace [1] Group 2: Polyester Industry Demand and Inventory - The domestic polyester industry's operating load remains stable at around 90%, with strong demand for PTA due to new production facilities [2] - Polyester inventory levels for various products have decreased significantly compared to mid-July, indicating smooth sales without inventory buildup [2] - The weaving industry operates at 74% capacity, showing a slight decline of 1 percentage point since late October, with no significant boost in orders from the easing of US-China trade tensions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The low processing fees and limited production by PTA companies are expected to support price stability, while the supply-demand balance is improving with decreasing inventories [2] - However, potential OPEC+ production cuts could lead to a decline in oil prices, which may affect PTA cost structures [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, prices moved higher, but last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the first time in four weeks [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed trends. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November is expected to be higher, but high freight may reduce December arrivals. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is slightly reduced, with inventory levels decreasing and the operating rate increasing. The spot market still exerts pressure on the futures [2]. - Polyester prices are expected to oscillate. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and its price is expected to follow raw material prices. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with potential for polyester factory replenishment [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, rubber futures prices rose. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping. The downstream tire operating rate has declined, and the futures price is expected to be supported [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing [6]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI January contract rose $0.7 to $58.65 per barrel (1.21% increase), Brent January contract rose $0.65 to $63.13 per barrel (1.04% increase), and SC2601 closed at 446.3 yuan/barrel, up 3.5 yuan/barrel (0.79% increase). Last week, US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels, contrary to the expected 55,000 - barrel increase. The number of active oil and gas rigs decreased by 10 to 544, the lowest since September [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.16% to 2447 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 0.33% to 3013 yuan/ton. In October, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports and exports decreased. The expected arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in Singapore in November is 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than in October [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, fell 1.02% to 3019 yuan/ton. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan is about 2.23 million tons, slightly decreased from the previous month. The inventory level decreased, and the operating rate increased [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.6% to 4684 yuan/ton, and EG2601 rose 0.59% to 3896 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expected but weak actual situation, with the near - month price under pressure. PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and ethylene glycol prices may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, RU2601, rose 70 yuan/ton to 15195 yuan/ton, and NR rose 15 yuan/ton to 12165 yuan/ton. The产区 is affected by weather, with potential early suspension of tapping, and the downstream tire operating rate has declined [4]. - **Methanol**: The supply from Iran is expected to decrease in December and January, and the port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving price rebounds, but there is an upper limit due to downstream polyolefin price constraints [6]. - **Polyolefin**: Production will remain high, while downstream demand will weaken. However, the current low valuation may prompt downstream purchasing, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **PVC**: Market prices have adjusted weakly. Supply remains high, and domestic demand is slowing, but the removal of export restrictions may support prices, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical products on November 26 and 25, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes and historical quantiles [9]. 3.3 Market News - The number of active oil and gas rigs in US energy companies decreased for the first time in four weeks, with the total number of rigs decreasing by 10 to 544 as of November 26 [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. US crude inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels to 426.929 million barrels [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [31][35][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][64][73] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy - Chemical Research Team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [75][76][77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].