Group 1 - The report indicates that the North Exchange 50 index decreased by 3.11%, with trading volume dropping by 21.65% compared to the previous week, reflecting a market trend favoring large-cap growth stocks [10][20][28] - The strong stock proportion in the North Exchange fell to 20.9%, nearing the low point observed in April, indicating a decline in market enthusiasm following the reversal of micro盘 factors [10][17][20] - The report highlights that the semiconductor, precious metals, and consumer electronics sectors showed strength, while the consumer and service industries remained weak [10][20] Group 2 - The report notes that 11 new companies were listed and 11 were delisted in the New Third Board, with planned financing of 615 million yuan and completed financing of 49 million yuan [3][58][59] - The newly listed company, Jinhua New Materials, saw a first-day increase of 133% with a trading volume of 1.132 billion yuan [34][35] - The report mentions that the North Exchange's average PE (TTM) is 81.83 times, with a median of 47.08 times, indicating a valuation comparison with other indices [24][32] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the recent breaking phenomenon of micro盘 stocks in the North Exchange, suggesting a potential correction in market style [10][13][15] - It suggests continued attention to the upcoming Q4 index fund issuance and the inflow of funds following the opening of public offerings, as well as the recovery of institutional strength [15][20] - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Gebijia, Wantong Hydraulic, Kaitai Co., Kangnong Agriculture, Lintai New Materials, Minshida, Tongli Co., and Suzhou Axle [15]

- **Quantitative Timing Model: Volume Timing Signal** - **Model Name**: Volume Timing Signal - **Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to assess market sentiment and provide timing signals for broad-based indices[23] - **Construction Process**: The model evaluates the trading volume of major indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) and assigns a cautious view when volume contracts significantly[23][24] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a cautious perspective on market timing, especially during periods of volume contraction[23] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio** - **Indicator Name**: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio - **Construction Idea**: The indicator measures the proportion of stocks within the CSI 300 index that have positive returns over a given period to gauge market sentiment[24] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ HS300\ Upward\ Stock\ Count\ Ratio = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two different window periods (N1=50, N2=35) to capture short-term and long-term trends[24][28] - **Evaluation**: The indicator effectively captures upward opportunities but struggles to predict downward risks. It is prone to missing gains during sustained market exuberance[25] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Name**: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Construction Idea**: The indicator uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the sentiment and trend of the CSI 300 index[31] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) for the CSI 300 index closing price[31] - Assign values based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price: - If the current price exceeds five moving averages, signal a bullish sentiment[32] - Smooth the sentiment indicator using two moving average windows (N1>N2) to generate buy/sell signals[31][32] - **Evaluation**: The indicator provides clear sentiment signals and aligns well with CSI 300 index trends[34] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Cross-Sectional Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to evaluate the alpha generation environment[36] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the standard deviation of returns for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[38] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to assess the alpha environment[38] - **Evaluation**: The indicator shows improved short-term alpha opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 500, while CSI 1000 remains average[36] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Time-Series Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Time-Series Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituent returns over time to assess alpha generation potential[38] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the weighted time-series volatility for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[41] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to evaluate the alpha environment[41] - **Evaluation**: CSI 500 shows favorable alpha conditions, while CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remain average or below average[38] Backtesting Results for Models and Indicators - **Volume Timing Signal**: - Signal: Cautious for all major indices (Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, etc.)[24] - **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio**: - Recent Value: Approximately 60%[25] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: - Current Sentiment: CSI 300 index is in a bullish sentiment zone[34] - **Cross-Sectional Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 2.04%, percentile = 73.50% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 2.19%, percentile = 67.46% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 2.40%, percentile = 66.14%[38] - **Time-Series Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 0.63%, percentile = 61.70% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 0.45%, percentile = 74.60% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 0.24%, percentile = 59.76%[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Views - In August, China's industrial profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.4%, driven by macro policies and the recovery of equipment manufacturing [3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector experienced a decline in new installations in August, with a total of approximately 7.4GW added, down 55.3% year-on-year, but cumulative installations for the first eight months still grew by 64.7% [4] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4 in August, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing supply and demand [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the machinery industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of 35.4% [2] Key Company Performance - Notable companies in the machinery sector include Changchuan Technology, which saw a weekly increase of 49.4%, and Hongsheng Co., which increased by 35.4% [13][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the general automation sector, such as Haomai Technology, and the photovoltaic processing equipment sector, including Jing Sheng Machinery and Aotwei, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing [5]

自8月以来，台湾地区的经济困境随着美国对台"20%+N"叠加关税政策的持续发酵，急剧加剧。 岛内许多企业因成本上升、订单萎缩，纷纷陷入了困境，减班、无薪假成为了常态，许多中小企业面临生死存亡的考验。 台湾地区本来是一个高度依赖外部经济的地区，但与美国的关系一向复杂且微妙。如今，台湾地区不仅依赖美国市场，还要以大规模采购美国农产品为交 换，换来美国的"好感"。如此交换是否真的值得，台民众难免有些疑虑。 美国的关税政策，尤其是"20%+N"叠加关税，已经让台湾地区众多企业深陷困境。台劳动事务主管部门的数据显示，"无薪假"人数大幅攀升，这直接反映了 美国关税对台湾地区经济的冲击。根据台湾地区商业总会的调查，受到影响最大的包括机械、五金、自行车等行业。 这些传统产业大量依赖美国市场，如今却因美国的贸易壁垒而面临无法承受的压力。 这个时候，赖清德当局的表现却让许多人大跌眼镜——面对压力，不是反思应对策略，不是寻求多元化的国际经济合作，而是屈服于美国，签署了与美国未 来四年采购3000亿新台币（约合100亿美元）农产品的协议。 一个"农产品采购协议"，背后藏着什么？ 从新闻报道来看，这项协议是为了扩大台湾地区对美采购农产 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Closet}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where Closet represents the latest closing price, and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback[11][19][23] - The model evaluates the relative proximity of major indices to their 250-day highs. As of September 26, 2025, the distances for indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, ChiNext Index, and STAR 50 Index are 1.43%, 1.76%, 0.95%, 1.37%, 2.08%, 3.67%, 2.60%, and 1.60%, respectively[12][13][32] - The report also tracks the proximity of industry indices to their 250-day highs. Industries such as power equipment & new energy, non-ferrous metals, electronics, media, and machinery are closer to their 250-day highs, with distances of 1.69%, 0.82%, 2.65%, 2.74%, and 2.09%, respectively[13][15][32] - A separate analysis focuses on concept indices, including power generation equipment, gold, wind power, solar power, and energy storage, which are relatively close to their 250-day highs[15][17][32] - The report identifies 1233 stocks that reached 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days. The sectors with the highest number of such stocks are electronics (182 stocks), machinery (178 stocks), and basic chemicals (137 stocks). The sectors with the highest proportion of stocks reaching new highs are non-ferrous metals (54.84%), electronics (37.45%), and power equipment & new energy (31.09%)[19][20][33] - The report introduces a screening method for "stable new high stocks" based on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and trend sustainability. Stocks are selected based on metrics like the absolute value of 120-day price changes, cumulative absolute daily price changes over 120 days, and the average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days[23][26][33] - Using the above screening criteria, 50 stable new high stocks were identified, including companies like New Yisheng, Giant Network, and Lead Intelligent. The technology sector contributed 20 stocks, with electronics being the most represented industry. The manufacturing sector contributed 13 stocks, with machinery being the most represented industry[27][33][31]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of September 26, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 1.43%, Shenzhen Component Index 1.76%, CSI 300 0.95%, CSI 500 1.37%, CSI 1000 2.08%, CSI 2000 3.67%, ChiNext Index 2.60%, and STAR 50 Index 1.60% [6][24] - The sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include power equipment and new energy, non-ferrous metals, electronics, media, and machinery, while food and beverage, banking, coal, transportation, and comprehensive finance are further away [24] Group 2 - A total of 1,233 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most new highs in the electronics, machinery, and basic chemicals sectors [13][24] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in non-ferrous metals (54.84%), electronics (37.45%), and power equipment and new energy (31.09%) [13][24] - The technology and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 386 and 358 stocks respectively [15][24] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stable new high stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability [25] - The technology sector had the most stable new high stocks, particularly in the electronics industry, while the manufacturing sector had the most in the machinery industry [20][25]

中新网沈阳9月26日电 (记者 赵桂华)由沈阳市商务局、中国国际贸易促进委员会沈阳市分会、新民市人 民政府共同主办的中韩跨境贸易对接交流会暨跨境出口供应链平台启动仪式，9月26日在沈阳市举办。 活动吸引了80余家中韩跨境贸易企业代表参与，共同探索双边合作新机遇，推动跨境贸易高质量发展。 辽宁新民市跨境出口供应链平台正式启动 助力"新民制造"高效链接韩国市场 作为新民市推动外贸转型升级的重要抓手，本次启动的跨境出口供应链平台将重点聚焦农副产品、装备 制造配套、轻工消费品、医药健康四大优势领域，推动"新民制造"与韩国市场高效对接。在项目签约环 节，新民市跨境出口供应链平台合作项目，以及中韩农产品、建材产品跨境贸易战略合作项目顺利完成 签约。11家本地重点企业现场签署入驻协议，覆盖农产品、建材、机械等多个品类，为平台注入首批优 质资源。 活动期间，与会企业还参观了新民产品展区，并围绕产品对接、物流合作、市场开拓等议题进行深入交 流。多家企业现场达成初步合作意向，为后续务实合作奠定基础。 未来，新民市将以跨境出口供应链平台为重要载体，持续优化中韩贸易"绿色通道"，完善政策咨询、通 关便利、物流支持等一体化服务，推动平 ...

Industry News - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, emphasizing that it harms national and industry interests and deviates from high-quality development goals [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China has added three US companies to the unreliable entity list and three others to the export control list, prohibiting them from engaging in import and export activities related to China [2] - The Ministry of Commerce calls for countries to jointly oppose unilateralism and protectionism, stressing that third-party interests should not be sacrificed due to coercion from others [2] - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, marking the fifth historical high this year, with significant growth in stock and mixed funds [3] Company News - The stock of Upwind New Materials will be suspended for verification after rising over 1800% this year, marking its second suspension since a change in control was disclosed [4] - Ganfeng Lithium plans to introduce investors for a capital increase of up to 2.5 billion yuan for its subsidiary, Ganfeng Lithium Battery [4] - Jingfeng Mingyuan has entered mass production of its second-generation DrMos chips, which have been adopted by multiple clients, driving business growth [5] - Pingmei Shenma Group is undergoing a strategic restructuring, which will not significantly impact Pingmei Co.'s operations [5] - Lvtian Machinery clarifies that it has no relationship or business cooperation with Zhuhai Lvtian Machinery Co., Ltd. [6] - Xiamen International Trade holds a 0.67% stake in Mohr Thread through its investment fund [7] - Yuexiu Capital confirms that Mohr Thread is one of its investment projects, with no significant impact on current operating performance [8] - Dazhihui announces a share swap with Xiangcai Co., with a swap price of 9.53 yuan per share for Dazhihui [9] - Putailai has delivered dry and solid-state battery equipment to major domestic and international clients [10] - Hailunzhe's investment in Suzhou Yisheng Robotics is expected to positively impact future performance due to increased demand from Apple [11] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical plans to raise up to 968 million yuan for the development of semaglutide and other projects [12] - Tianen Kang's subsidiary has received approval for clinical trials of a new drug for rosacea, a first in the domestic market [12] - Baili Tianheng's innovative drug has been included in the list of breakthrough therapies by the National Medical Products Administration [13]

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In August 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools in China reached approximately 71,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, while the cumulative production from January to August was about 564,000 units, up 14.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in downstream manufacturing demand [2] - The production of industrial robots in August 2025 was about 64,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with a cumulative production of approximately 521,000 units from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.9% [2] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment in China grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August 2025, and cumulative export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, supporting the stabilization of manufacturing demand [2] Group 2: Lithium Battery Equipment - In August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached approximately 1.395 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with total sales from January to August amounting to about 9.62 million units, up 36.7% year-on-year [3] - The installed capacity of power batteries in August 2025 was approximately 62.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, while the total production of power batteries reached 139.6 GWh, up 37.3% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative installed capacity of power batteries from January to August 2025 grew by 43.1% to 417.9 GWh, and total production increased by 54.3% to 970.7 GWh, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the new energy vehicle sector [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August 2025, with key sub-indices such as production and new orders showing improvement, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing supply and demand [4] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery industry, highlighting opportunities in the general automation sector and lithium battery equipment sector due to the expected recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - Recommended companies include Haomai Technology in the general automation sector and Xianlead Intelligent and Hangke Technology in the lithium battery equipment sector [5]

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3800 points, and most institutions are optimistic about the market outlook for Q4 [1][2] - Analysts expect a structural recovery in A-share earnings, driven by resilient export growth, manufacturing investment improvements, and seasonal consumption increases [2][3] - The market is anticipated to experience a "slow bull" trend, with a balanced style shift between growth and value stocks [2][4] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly in optical communication and semiconductors, has shown strong performance, while cyclical and consumer stocks have lagged [4] - Historical data suggests a style rotation in Q4, with cyclical stocks likely to rebound and technology stocks diversifying beyond just hardware [4][5] - Key sectors to focus on in Q4 include TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), machinery, pharmaceuticals, military, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and non-bank financials [4][5] Group 3 - Financial analysts predict increased allocation to equity assets by residents in a low-interest-rate environment, with a current equity and fund allocation of 15% among Chinese residents, indicating room for growth [3] - Suggested investment themes for Q4 include precious and industrial metals, renewable energy, AI hardware and applications, and consumer sectors such as pet economy and beauty products [5]