一、7000亿债务，压住的是一座城市的呼吸 文 | 沈素明 今年夏天，柳州的街头依然车水马龙，柳江穿城而过，紫荆花早已谢了，城市并无异样。可就在6月25 日，广西召开了一场紧急会议，决定"举全省之力救柳州"。救什么？7000亿债务——这不是GDP，不是 投资总额，而是债务——柳州背负的地方债务总额。而这座城市一年的财政收入，只有150亿。就算政 府从明天起停发工资、关闭学校、熄灭路灯，把每一分钱都用来还债，也要46年。 但政府不可能停摆。 于是，一场危机，被"救援"两个字暂时按住。可按得住一时，按不住曾经的发展模式的崩塌。 柳州曾是广西的工业脊梁，五菱汽车从这里驶向全国，机械、钢铁、化工一度撑起半壁江山。可过去十 几年，它悄悄换了一条路：不再靠工厂出货，而是靠城投公司借钱；不再靠税收增长，而是靠卖地回 血。三个新区拔地而起，轻轨轨道铺到半途，城市地图迅速膨胀——GDP数字也跟着膨胀。2018年，柳 州GDP达到3000亿以上；但是，到了2024年，不仅没增长，反而跌破3000亿，倒退了整整七年。 更致命的是土地财政的崩塌。 2021年，卖地还能收270亿；三年后，只剩60亿。跌幅78%。轻轨烂尾了，留下176 ...

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks that have reached new highs, using the 250-day high distance as a key metric[11][12] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of October 31, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are provided, with values ranging from 1.53% to 8.03%[12][13][15] Model and Factor Construction - **Model Name**: 250-day High Distance Model - **Construction Idea**: The model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 days to identify stocks that are reaching new highs[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the 250-day high distance using the formula $ 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - Identify stocks with the smallest 250-day high distance, indicating they are at or near their 250-day high[11] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying stocks that are leading the market trend by reaching new highs[11] Factor Construction - **Factor Name**: Stable New High Stocks - **Construction Idea**: The factor aims to identify stocks that not only reach new highs but do so with stable price movements and strong momentum[26] - **Construction Process**: - Filter stocks that have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days - Further filter based on analyst attention, relative strength, price stability, and trend continuation - Use metrics such as the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days and the average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days to score and rank stocks[26][28] - **Evaluation**: This factor helps in identifying stocks with strong and stable upward trends, which are likely to continue performing well[26] Backtest Results - **250-day High Distance Model**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.53% - Shenzhen Component Index: 2.53% - CSI 300: 2.26% - CSI 500: 2.89% - CSI 1000: 1.85% - CSI 2000: 2.22% - ChiNext Index: 4.11% - STAR 50 Index: 8.03%[12][13][15] - **Stable New High Stocks Factor**: - Number of stocks reaching new highs in the past 20 days: 1077 - Highest number of new high stocks by industry: Electronics, Machinery, Basic Chemicals - Highest proportion of new high stocks by industry: Non-ferrous Metals, Coal, Steel - Highest number of new high stocks by index: CSI 2000, CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index[19][20][29]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating on the Industry No information provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Compared the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft with the "14th Five - Year Plan", found incremental expressions in multiple directions such as technology, traditional industries, medicine, culture, and new energy, and sorted out relevant individual bonds [5]. - In the technology field, there are three new contents: domestic self - control in six directions, new emerging and future industries, and more emphasis on artificial intelligence [5][9]. - For traditional industries, focus on eight key industries, and pay attention to the innovation and development opportunities of large traditional enterprises with global competitive advantages [5][22]. - In the cultural field, focus on new "culture +" content, especially network literature, online games, and online audio - visual [5][25]. - In the medical field, pay attention to new contents such as innovative drugs, high - quality population development, and "medical + AI" [5]. - In the new energy field, advocate a combination of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, and pay attention to new contents such as smart grids and new energy storage [5][29]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Technology - **Domestic Self - Control: Six Directions**: Focus on domestic self - control in six directions including integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, etc. Provide details on each direction and list relevant convertible bonds [9]. - **New Directions in Emerging and Future Industries**: Focus on new contents in emerging and future industries such as low - altitude economy, embodied intelligence, etc., and list related convertible bonds [15]. - **More Attention to Artificial Intelligence**: Artificial intelligence is emphasized, and "AI +" directions such as AI + medical, AI + industry are focused on, with relevant convertible bonds listed [20]. 2. Traditional Industries - Focus on eight key industries including mining, metallurgy, etc. Pay attention to the innovation and development opportunities of large traditional enterprises with global competitive advantages, and list relevant convertible bonds [22][23]. 3. Culture - Pay attention to three new types of cultural industries: network literature, online games, and online audio - visual. Highlight the industry opportunities in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and list relevant convertible bonds [25][26]. 4. Medicine - Pay attention to new contents such as innovative drugs, high - quality population development, and "medical + AI". List relevant convertible bonds for innovative drugs and "AI + medical" [26][27][28]. 5. New Energy - Advocate a combination of wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power. Pay attention to new contents such as smart grids and new energy storage, and list relevant convertible bonds [29][30][31].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategic shift towards financial and consumer sectors, indicating a positive market outlook following the resolution of tariff impacts and a rebound after initial panic [4][7] - The report highlights the importance of new economic technologies and service consumption, alongside traditional resource industries, as key investment themes for the upcoming quarter [4][7] - The report identifies a favorable environment for investment, driven by domestic policy shifts and international cooperation, particularly in consumption and technology sectors [4][7] Company Summaries - **Haier Smart Home (600690)**: The company is positioned as a global leader in home appliances, focusing on digital transformation and supply chain optimization. It aims to enhance its global competitiveness through increased self-sufficiency in core components and overseas expansion [12] - **Lixing Shares (300421)**: As a leader in the rolling body industry, the company is expanding into high-end products like ceramic rolling bodies, benefiting from the recovery in high-speed rail and wind power sectors, with steady growth expected [13] - **China National Glass (600176)**: The company is experiencing improved profitability due to product price recovery and cost reductions. Its gross margin for Q3 2025 was 32.8%, reflecting a 4.6 percentage point increase year-on-year [14] - **Lihigh Food (300973)**: The company is leveraging management efficiency, channel benefits, and product upgrades to enhance performance [15] - **Muyuan Foods (002714)**: As a leading player in pig farming, the company maintains a solid cost advantage and is committed to high-quality development [16] - **Landai Technology (002765)**: The company is rapidly expanding its new energy business, with significant growth in sales and revenue share expected from 2022 to 2024 [17] - **Hui Electric (002463)**: The company is increasing capital expenditure to support growth, with a focus on AI servers and switches, and is expected to reach a reasonable economic scale by the end of 2025 [19] - **Xiechuang Data (300857)**: The company is investing heavily in computing power, with strong demand for AI computing services driving growth [20] - **Tencent Holdings (00700)**: The company has established a robust user base through its social networks, enabling it to build a diverse ecosystem across various sectors, including digital content and financial technology [21] - **Greentown Service (02869)**: The company is focusing on its core business and reforming its operations, resulting in rapid profit growth and improved financial metrics [22]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][26] - As of October 31, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 1.53%, Shenzhen Component Index 2.53%, CSI 300 2.26%, CSI 500 2.89%, CSI 1000 1.85%, CSI 2000 2.22%, ChiNext Index 4.11%, and STAR Market 8.03% [6][26] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, the home appliance, textile and apparel, comprehensive, basic chemicals, and building materials industries are closest to their 250-day new highs, while food and beverage, banking, real estate, comprehensive finance, and pharmaceuticals are further away [9][26] Group 2 - A total of 1,077 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most new highs in the electronics, machinery, and basic chemicals sectors [14][26] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel industries, with respective proportions of 63.71%, 47.22%, and 41.51% [14][26] - The cyclical and technology sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with respective proportions of 29.79% and 22.64% [17][26] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stable new high stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability [20][22][26] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most stable new high stocks, with 16 and 15 stocks respectively, with the most new highs in the non-ferrous metals and machinery industries [22][26]

Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has officially released the "Optimization Work Plan for the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) System," which simplifies the investment preparation process for QFII and implements a green channel for sovereign funds, international organizations, and pension charitable funds [1][7] - Since the introduction of the QFII system in 2002, it has become a significant channel for foreign capital to enter the A-share market, with distinct investment styles and preferences compared to domestic funds [1][7] Investment Trends - As of October 30, 2023, QFII has continued to increase its holdings in A-shares, with at least 121 stocks receiving additional investments in the third quarter [2][3] - The sectors with the highest QFII investments are not in semiconductors but rather in electrical equipment, machinery, chemicals, and hardware [2][3] - Major QFII players like Morgan Stanley, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and JPMorgan have shown a preference for a diversified portfolio, with Morgan Stanley holding 244 stocks and UBS increasing its holdings in 29 stocks [2][3] Individual Stock Movements - Notable stocks that received increased QFII investments include Nanjing Bank, China XD Electric, and Oriental Yuhong, with significant increases in shareholdings from various QFII institutions [2][3] - The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has made strategic adjustments, increasing its holdings in stocks like Baofeng Energy and Hengli Hydraulic while reducing its stake in others like Zijin Mining [4][5] Sovereign Fund Strategies - Middle Eastern sovereign funds, such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Kuwait Investment Authority, tend to have a more concentrated investment approach compared to their Western counterparts [4][5] - The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's A-share holdings have decreased in value from approximately 9 billion yuan last year to about half of that by October 29, 2023, indicating profit-taking or tactical trading [4][5] Future Outlook - The QFII system is expected to expand further, with over 900 qualified foreign investors already participating, including various types of funds and institutions [7] - The CSRC aims to enhance the attractiveness of the QFII system for long-term foreign capital over the next two years, promoting a balanced development of onshore and offshore channels [7]

Group 1 - The company, China Electric Motor (SH 603988), announced on October 31 that its sixth fifth board meeting was held on October 30, 2025, via written signature to discuss the proposal for changing the accounting firm [1] - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition is 100.0% from machinery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key points of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposed by the Central Committee, emphasizing a shift from a focus on quantity to quality in economic development, addressing both opportunities and challenges in the current global and domestic landscape [2][29]. Group 1: Situation Assessment and Main Goals - The next five years will see a profound impact on China's development due to global changes, with a focus on high-quality development amidst increasing uncertainties and risks [2][3]. - The guiding principles for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include prioritizing economic construction, high-quality development, and balancing development with security [3][4]. - Key goals include enhancing economic quality, significantly improving technological self-reliance, upgrading living standards, and strengthening national security [4]. Group 2: Corporate Sector - The corporate sector's focus will shift towards building a modern industrial system, emphasizing the transformation from traditional industries to stronger, more competitive sectors [5][6]. - New and future industries will be cultivated, with a focus on emerging sectors like renewable energy and advanced technologies, aiming for a diversified technological and commercial landscape [6][7]. - The integration of manufacturing and services will be prioritized, enhancing the overall competitiveness of the industrial system [7]. Group 3: Resident Sector - The plan emphasizes improving residents' quality of life through a combination of enhancing welfare and promoting consumption, aiming for a more sustainable and inclusive growth model [10][11]. - Key indicators for the resident sector include consumer spending, income growth, and labor remuneration, all interconnected to enhance overall economic resilience [11][12]. - Specific initiatives will focus on boosting consumption, advancing urbanization, and improving social welfare systems [12][13][14]. Group 4: Government Sector - The government will enhance macroeconomic governance by promoting effective market mechanisms and ensuring a proactive role in economic management [16][20]. - Key tasks include invigorating various business entities, improving the market allocation of resources, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [21][22]. - Financial reforms will be prioritized to strengthen the financial system and support the real economy, with an emphasis on risk management and regulatory improvements [23][24]. Group 5: Regional Policy - The plan aims to leverage the synergies of various regional development strategies to optimize spatial layouts and promote coordinated growth [25]. - Highlighting key growth areas, such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Delta, will enhance regional competitiveness [25]. Group 6: External Circulation - The plan emphasizes a shift towards a more proactive and rule-based approach to international trade, aiming to enhance China's global competitiveness [26][27]. - Initiatives will focus on promoting trade innovation, fostering a balanced investment environment, and enhancing financial openness and the internationalization of the Renminbi [27][28].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in fund assets and holdings, with total fund assets rising by 20.2% to 4.15 trillion yuan and total market value of holdings increasing by 22.0% to 3.56 trillion yuan in Q3 2025 [3][5] - The report indicates a shift in fund positioning, with a notable increase in allocations to the ChiNext and STAR Market while reducing exposure to the main board [5][27] - The concentration of holdings has increased, with CR5/10/20/30/50 ownership concentration rising by 3.4/5.2/6.1/6.3/5.8 percentage points compared to Q2 2025, reflecting a preference for large-cap stocks [5][27] Group 2 - The report identifies a trend of reducing allocations in consumer and financial sectors while increasing exposure to technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly in electronics and communications [27][32] - The allocation to the eight broad technology manufacturing sectors has risen significantly, with the overall allocation increasing from 52.2% in the mid-report to 63.2% in Q3 2025, and the overweight ratio rising from 16.8% to 22.1% [27][36] - The report notes that the allocation to TMT sectors has reached a historical high, with the overall allocation increasing from 28.9% to 40.4% in Q3 2025, and the overweight ratio rising from 10.5% to 17.9% [27][36] Group 3 - The report details a decrease in allocations to essential and discretionary consumer sectors, with the allocation to discretionary consumption dropping by 2.8 percentage points and essential consumption by 3.7 percentage points [27][36] - The financial sector saw a decline in allocation, with the banking sector's allocation decreasing by 3.0 percentage points and non-bank financials slightly down by 0.3 percentage points [27][36] - The report emphasizes that the current market structure and economic adjustments are driving the stock market's structural changes, with technology and advanced manufacturing sectors becoming increasingly correlated with macroeconomic conditions [27][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in its performance, with Q1-3 2025 revenue reaching 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.27%, and a net profit of 178 million yuan, up 21.56% year-on-year. Q3 alone saw revenue of 344 million yuan, a 25.62% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 69 million yuan, up 41.47% year-on-year [1] - The growth is attributed to the high demand in data centers and the gradual ramp-up of new businesses, with Q3 marking a historical high in quarterly revenue. The company’s revenue growth rates for Q1, Q2, and Q3 were -5.13%, +8.24%, and +25.62%, respectively, indicating a strong recovery trend [1] - The company has established a comprehensive product line in AIDC components, including compressors and large diesel engines, with a focus on high-margin new products benefiting from the data center boom [1] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q1-3 2025 were 37.18% and 19.21%, respectively, showing improvements in profitability. The Q3 gross margin was 37.77%, and the net margin was 20.05%, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [5] - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 16%, 25%, and 24%, respectively, with net profit growth of 31%, 34%, and 31% for the same period, reflecting strong future earnings potential [5][6] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1.274 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 246 million yuan, indicating a recovery from previous declines [6][8] Market Position and Valuation - The current market capitalization of the company is 7.1 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected at 28.8 for 2025, decreasing to 16.4 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as growth accelerates [2][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the engineering machinery and data center sectors, positioning it well for future growth [5]