Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. With the shrinking market trading volume, short - term indices face adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea of buying on dips is still the main strategy [3]. - In the bond market, considering the slowdown of economic data in August, the expected easing of funds, and the need to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term [5]. - For precious metals, although the Fed's interest - rate meeting was not as dovish as expected, the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on the upward price potential of silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to oscillate, zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term, and nickel is recommended to be bought on dips in the long - term [9][11][13]. - In the black building materials sector, although the black sector is currently under pressure from weak actual demand, with the possible implementation of overseas fiscal and monetary policies and the opening of China's policy space, it may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, with the key point around mid - October [28]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the views on different products vary. For example, crude oil is recommended for long - positions, while PVC is recommended for short - positions [41][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the strategies for different products also differ. For example, for pigs, pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound; for sugar, maintain a bearish view [54][62]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - finance Stock Index - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited opinions on relevant standards for intelligent connected vehicles. CATL's sodium - new batteries will be supplied in batches next year. Dongshan Precision said the supply of optical chips is tight [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [2]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [4]. - **Message**: From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: Considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected easing of funds, the bond market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short - term, but pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the statement was not as dovish as expected, and precious metal prices were under short - term pressure [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Powell's statement on monetary policy was neutral. The voting pattern of the interest - rate meeting implies a change in the probability of the new Fed chairman. The market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut will rise with the appointment of a new chairman. A long - position approach should be maintained, with a focus on silver [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, copper prices adjusted. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount [9]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's policy was less loose than expected, but there are some disturbances in the overseas copper mine industry. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to oscillate [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and domestic inventories increased [10]. - **Outlook**: The Fed's statement was cautious, but the downstream is in the traditional consumption season, and aluminum prices are expected to be supported [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed different trends in the domestic and overseas markets. Zinc concentrate inventories increased, and processing fees were differentiated [11]. - **Outlook**: The zinc market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and if the zinc ingot export window opens, domestic zinc prices may rise [11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventories increased slowly, and the TC decreased. The inventory of lead batteries decreased [12]. - **Outlook**: With the improvement of industrial data and market sentiment, lead prices are expected to break through the oscillation range and be strong in the short - term [12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, and the demand for nickel iron was supported [13]. - **Outlook**: Although refined nickel inventories are under pressure, in the long - term, nickel prices are expected to be supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was slow to recover, and the inventory of tin ingots increased slightly [14][15]. - **Outlook**: With a significant decrease in supply and a marginal improvement in demand, tin prices are expected to be strong and oscillate [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium increased slightly, and the futures price also rose [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental improvement of carbonate lithium has been reflected in the price. Pay attention to industrial information and the impact of the Fed's policy [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index declined, and the import window opened [17]. - **Outlook**: The alumina market is expected to be in a state of over - capacity in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to supply - side policies and the Fed's policy [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined, and the inventory decreased [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the weak demand in the real estate industry, the overall market demand is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined slightly, and the inventory increased [19]. - **Outlook**: Although the peak season characteristics are not obvious, the cost is strongly supported, and prices are expected to remain high in the short - term [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends. The inventory of rebar increased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly [21][22]. - **Outlook**: The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and the supply and demand situation changed [23][24]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and overseas macro - changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices declined slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply decreased slightly due to equipment maintenance, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The spot prices were stable [27]. - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was supported. The inventory remained high. It is recommended to pay attention to industry policies [30][31]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices declined slightly. The supply was close to the same - period high, and the inventory transfer was limited. Pay attention to capacity integration policies [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: The supply of rubber may be affected by weather, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season. The inventory decreased [35][36]. - **Outlook**: Adopt a long - position approach in the medium - term and wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. The U.S. EIA data showed changes in inventory [40]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a long - position approach for crude oil, as the fundamentals support the price, and if the geopolitical premium returns, prices may rise [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the spot price declined. The inventory was high, and the demand was expected to improve [42]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spreads [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was rising, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the inventory is decreasing [44][45]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [46]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations due to policy sentiment [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: EG prices rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was stable [47]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The supply was affected by unexpected maintenance, and the demand was stable [49]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the improvement of the terminal and raw - material maintenance [49]. p - Xylene - **Market**: PX prices rose, and the inventory decreased. The load was high, and the downstream PTA load was low [50]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the recovery of the terminal [50]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory was decreasing, and the demand was expected to increase [51]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure was high, and the demand was gradually recovering [52]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, and prices are expected to oscillate [52]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices declined, and the supply was expected to be high in September [54]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound and short - selling after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse - spread strategy [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and the supply was stable [55]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions in the far - month contract when the price falls and the position increases [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices declined slightly. The inventory was at a high level [56][57]. - **Outlook**: The soybean import cost is expected to be weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate within a range, waiting for a driving factor [58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data showed changes. Domestic oil prices declined [59]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats are expected to be strong and oscillate in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar futures prices declined, and the spot price was stable. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [61][62]. - **Outlook**: Maintain a bearish view on sugar prices, and pay attention to the Brazilian production [62]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and the spot price rose slightly. The downstream operating rate increased, and the inventory was low [63][64]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to shift towards low-risk, high-dividend sectors, making the allocation in non-ferrous and steel sectors timely. The operating performance of most sub-sectors in the non-ferrous and steel industry has shown significant improvement in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [15][16] - Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per ton, with expectations for profitability and dividend rates to gradually increase for copper mining companies. For instance, Zangge Mining reported a mid-term dividend of 1.569 billion yuan, with a dividend rate significantly raised to 87% [15][16] - Aluminum prices have risen, leading to upward revisions in profitability and dividend expectations. The aluminum price has reached 21,000 yuan per ton, and companies like Tianshan Aluminum have increased their dividend rates to 50% [16] - The rare earth sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of price increases due to the resumption of bidding by downstream magnetic material manufacturers, with companies like Jinkeli Yongci reporting a mid-term dividend rate of 81% [16] - Steel companies are expected to enhance their dividend capabilities as profitability improves and capital expenditures decline. For example, Huazhong Steel has seen an increase in shareholding by Xintai Life Insurance, which plans to continue increasing its stake [16] Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous and Steel Industry - The report highlights the positive outlook for low-risk, high-dividend sub-sectors within the non-ferrous and steel industry, driven by improving operating performance and rising commodity prices [15][16] - The copper market is experiencing tight supply, pushing prices above $10,000 per ton, which is expected to enhance profitability and dividends for mining companies [15][16] - The aluminum sector is benefiting from a favorable supply-demand balance, with prices rising and companies increasing their dividend rates [16] - The rare earth market is poised for growth as bidding resumes in downstream sectors, leading to improved profitability and dividend stability [16] - Steel companies are likely to see enhanced profitability and dividend capabilities due to reduced capital expenditures and improved market conditions [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended to hold long positions. Gold is supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index, expected Fed rate - cuts, geopolitical situations, and long - term strategic allocation needs. Silver benefits from rate - cuts, strong demand, and limited supply growth [1]. - Copper recommends holding long positions, with some profit - taking. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, it is still optimistic about copper [1][8]. - Zinc is expected to face pressure in its rebound. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][12]. - Lead, tin, and nickel are expected to face pressure in their rebounds, affected by factors such as enterprise maintenance, supply - demand imbalances, and inventory changes [1]. - Aluminum is expected to be relatively strong, with stable overseas bauxite supply, inventory reduction, and increased downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a rebound, with fundamental pressure but policy support [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to have a high - level shock, with improved fundamentals and limited upward drivers in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a rebound, with increasing production but also increasing inventory reduction, indicating strong terminal demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold has reached a new all - time high, and the market has priced in at least three rate - cuts [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US economic data supports rate - cuts. The retail sales growth may slow down. The market expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points, and a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have escalated. In the short - term, geopolitical and economic uncertainties drive the gold price to a new high. In the long - term, gold may have a long - term bull market [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for gold and silver, but beware of "selling on the news" trading. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has risen and then fallen. Pay attention to the support at the 80,000 - yuan level [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The processing fee TC is still in deep inversion. The production of electrolytic copper may decrease in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to pick up, and the annual supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market has fully priced in the rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, with some profit - taking. Beware of the risk of price decline due to rate - cut realization and holiday risk - aversion. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The recommended trading ranges are [79,500, 82,500] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has faced pressure and declined, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic zinc concentrate TC has decreased, and SMM's imported zinc concentrate index has increased. In September, domestic smelter maintenance has increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has increased, while overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to decrease. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream purchases are based on rigid demand [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed rate - cut is almost certain. London zinc is approaching the 3,000 - dollar level, while domestic zinc ingot inventory increase has dragged down Shanghai zinc. In the long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. The recommended trading ranges are [22,000, 22,500] for Shanghai zinc and [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price has faced pressure in its rebound, and alumina has stabilized at a low level [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased. In September, the inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. For alumina, the supply of Guinea's bauxite is abundant, but the arrival volume in September may be affected by the rainy season. The domestic alumina operating rate has increased, and the supply pressure has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,500 - 21,500] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price has faced pressure in its rebound, and stainless steel has rebounded [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has a strong rate - cut expectation. The supply of refined nickel in China has a large surplus pressure, and the domestic pure nickel social inventory has continued to increase slightly. For stainless steel, the downstream consumption peak - season expectation still exists. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decrease, and the production volume in September is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on nickel and stainless steel with light positions in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, with the late - session gain falling below 2% [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to release incremental production, with weekly production and operating rate at historical highs. The terminal demand peak - season is obvious, with high - level energy storage demand and a warming power battery market. The downstream material factory's production schedule has continued to increase, and the inventory has been replenished for 10 consecutive weeks. The total inventory reduction of lithium carbonate production has increased, and the smelter inventory is below the median level, providing support for the price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to whether it can stand firm on the 60 - day moving average [72,500 - 74,500] [24].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper experienced a stock price decline of 2.03% on September 17, with a current price of 29.45 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 101.977 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. is located in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, and was established on January 24, 1997. It was listed on January 11, 2002. The company primarily engages in the mining, smelting, and processing of copper and gold, as well as the extraction and processing of rare metals, sulfur chemicals, and financial and trading sectors [1] - The main revenue composition includes: cathode copper (51.55%), copper rod and wire (22.79%), gold (12.65%), copper concentrate and other non-ferrous metals (5.12%), silver (3.25%), copper processing products (1.95%), chemical products (0.54%), and others (0.45%) [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported operating revenue of 256.959 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.91%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.42% to 4.175 billion CNY [2] - Since its A-share listing, Jiangxi Copper has distributed a total of 22.183 billion CNY in dividends, with 6.219 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Jiangxi Copper had 117,800 shareholders, a decrease of 4.97% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person remained at 0 [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 68.5873 million shares, an increase of 25.3919 million shares from the previous period [3]

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices are rising due to supply-side "black swan" events, including reports of Transneft limiting pipeline storage and ongoing attacks on Russian refineries and Baltic oil terminals, leading to decreased refinery operating rates and global supply disruptions [3] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israeli airstrikes on Yemen's Hodeidah port, are further increasing risk premiums in the oil market [3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is boosting demand for oil, with WTI crude rising 1.9% to $64.52 per barrel and Brent crude at $68.47 [3] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold has reached a historic high of $3700 per ounce, driven primarily by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [4] - The dollar index has fallen to a 10-week low, making gold, as a non-yielding asset, more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [4] - Despite a slight pullback to $3688.72, the breakthrough above $3700 is a significant signal for long-term investors [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices fell 0.59% to $10126.5 per ton after reaching a 15-month high, attributed to cautious trading ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [5] - The anticipated interest rate cut is expected to benefit copper prices by stimulating demand and weakening the dollar, but traders opted to take profits before the announcement [5] - Other metals like aluminum and zinc showed stable performance, indicating that overall demand has not deteriorated [5] Group 4: Market Overview - The fluctuations in commodity prices are influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks (oil), monetary policy (gold), and short-term sentiment (copper) [6] - The current market is pricing in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with three key factors to monitor: the Fed's interest rate path, potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and the sustainability of demand recovery [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term trading liquidity is loose, and the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to oscillate upward, reaching 81,500 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is almost certain, but the continuous boost to copper prices is limited, and the "stagflation - like" environment restricts the scope of interest rate cuts. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, with medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions providing bottom support. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price showed a low - level oscillating trend. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand pull is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. - For aluminum, the short - term price will oscillate around the peak - season expectation and actual consumption realization, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. There is a possibility of the price rising and then falling if demand improvement is less than expected [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated at a high level. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply, and the demand has a slight recovery. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of improved interest rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, but Shanghai zinc is relatively weak. The supply is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. With the strengthening of the US interest rate cut expectation, the tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market is generally strong. Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the interest rate cut rhythm remains unchanged, and domestic policies are favorable. Industrially, the stainless steel demand is weak, while the price of nickel sulfate is rising. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillated upward. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and domestic policies are positive. The supply pressure exists, and the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. Policy windows boost the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually clear, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract price center reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.23% to 80,940 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7326 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The aluminum profile operating rate increased by 1.89% to 54% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The regenerated aluminum alloy operating rate decreased by 0.35% to 53.41% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing operating rate increased by 5.98% to 56.06% [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.22% to 273,300 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,000 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel product was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory increased by 2.07% to 26,986 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.76% to 13,250 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 478,100 tons [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 72,450 yuan/ton. - **Fundamentals**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [17].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, in light of recent U.S. inflation data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2][3][11]. Precious Metals - The London gold price reached $3,651.10 per ounce, an increase of $56.55 per ounce or 1.57% compared to September 5 [2][3]. - The London silver price was $42.26 per ounce, up by $1.52 per ounce or 3.72% from September 5 [2][3]. - U.S. August CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations, while core CPI was also in line with forecasts at 3.1% [3]. Copper - The LME copper closing price was $10,068 per ton, up by $121 per ton or 1.22% from September 5 [5]. - SHFE copper closing price was 81,360 CNY per ton, an increase of 1,170 CNY per ton or 1.46% [5]. - Concerns over supply disruptions arose due to an incident at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which is expected to impact copper supply [6]. Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 21,050 CNY per ton, an increase of 370 CNY per ton [7]. - The LME aluminum inventory was 485,275 tons, up by 600 tons from September 5 [7]. - The demand for aluminum is showing signs of improvement as the "Golden September" consumption season approaches [7]. Tin - Domestic refined tin price was 274,570 CNY per ton, up by 2,710 CNY per ton or 1.00% [9]. - Supply issues persist due to low operating rates at tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, exacerbated by raw material shortages [9]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price was 176,500 CNY per ton, down by 1,000 CNY or 0.56% [10]. - The market remains weak with low transaction volumes and no signs of demand recovery [10]. Investment Strategy - The gold sector is recommended for investment due to the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle [11][12]. - The copper sector is also recommended, with expectations of price increases due to supply disruptions and upcoming demand [12]. - The aluminum sector shows signs of tightening supply and improving demand, warranting a positive outlook [12]. - The tin sector is recommended due to supply tightness supporting prices [12]. - The antimony sector is recommended for its long-term supply constraints despite short-term demand weakness [12]. Recommended Stocks - Gold sector: Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Mining International, China National Gold Group [13]. - Copper sector: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Cangge Mining, Minmetals Resources [13]. - Aluminum sector: Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum [13]. - Tin sector: Xiyang Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, Xingye Silver Tin [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international gold price has reached a new high, and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening has increased. The market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continues, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities are affected by various factors such as Sino - US relations, economic data, and Fed's interest - rate decisions [2][3]. - Different commodities show different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to be strong before the Fed's interest - rate cut in September but may face short - term corrections after the cut; copper prices are expected to oscillate upward; aluminum prices are macro - driven and remain strong; zinc prices are expected to slowly move up; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term but need to pay attention to the callback risk; tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase; industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate prices may rise; nickel prices are cautiously bullish; oil prices are oscillating; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, and glass prices may rise; steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound; iron ore prices are expected to be strong; and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate, while palm oil prices are expected to adjust [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Sino - US reached a framework agreement on TikTok, and the deadline may be extended. Before the FOMC meeting, the market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continued, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields declining, the US stock market reaching a new high, and the gold price hitting 3685 and copper price reaching a 15 - month high. The Senate approved Trump's nominee for the Fed governor [2]. - Domestic: The economic data in August cooled down comprehensively. The market's expectation of policy strengthening increased, and an event to introduce policies to expand service consumption will be held on September 17. The A - share market oscillated narrowly, and the bond market was in a state of being insensitive to good news and sensitive to bad news [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of international precious metals continued to rise on Monday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce, and the silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and the deterioration of US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The latest US economic data was weak. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been fully priced in the market, and there may be one or two more cuts by the end of the year. The report that China may relax gold import and export regulations stimulated strong buying [4][5]. - Before the Fed's interest - rate cut on September 18, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain strong. However, after the interest - rate cut, there may be a short - term correction due to profit - taking [5]. 3.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward on Monday, and LME copper continued to rise after breaking through the integer mark. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was dull. Sino - US reached a strategic framework consensus in the new - round negotiation. The market has basically confirmed a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The weakening of the US dollar index boosted the metal market. Freeport's copper - gold mine in Indonesia is still shut down [6][7]. - Given the positive macro - environment and the interruption of overseas mines and the approaching consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21020 yuan/ton, down 0.47% on Monday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased. The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and the weakening of the US dollar index continued to boost aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the social market increased, and the consumption peak season needs to be verified. In the short term, aluminum prices will be macro - driven and remain strong [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and strongly at night on Monday. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the downstream demand did not show signs of the peak season. The social inventory increased. The sharp decline of the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the metal. The downstream consumption peak season has not yet appeared, and the inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but the strong performance of LME zinc boosts Shanghai zinc. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to slowly move up [10]. 3.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and its center of gravity moved down slightly at night on Monday. The inventory increased slightly, but the market expects downstream enterprises to stock up before the National Day holiday, so the impact on lead prices is limited. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain strong in the oscillation, but attention should be paid to the callback risk due to insufficient consumption improvement [11]. 3.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and oscillated narrowly at night on Monday. The LME tin inventory has stabilized at a low level, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The domestic downstream consumption improvement is limited, and the inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. However, the shortage of tin ore raw materials has not improved, and the refinery's production has decreased. Tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase after the slowdown of the upward trend [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply side is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of recovery. The social inventory has increased slightly. The price of the spot market has stabilized. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is fluctuating. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply has reached a new high, and the downstream consumption is good, but the supply pressure still exists. The short - term technical indicators are positive, and the downstream replenishment season has arrived. Lithium carbonate prices may rise, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the inventory structure [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Monday. The Fed is approaching an interest - rate cut, and Indonesia's new round of RKAB approval is coming. The market's bullish sentiment is increasing, but the inventory pressure at home and abroad still exists. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - Oil prices oscillated strongly on Monday. OPEC + has a clear production - increase plan, and the supply pressure exists due to the approaching consumption off - season. However, geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and potential geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise periodically. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly on Monday. Some soda ash production facilities are under maintenance, and the downstream's willingness to stock up before the National Day is high. However, the market is pessimistic about the future due to high inventory. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. The glass market is generally stable, and some flat - glass enterprises have reduced prices to promote sales. The photovoltaic glass market is hot, but there is a risk of capacity reduction. Glass prices may rise [20]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The macro - environment and cost support are positive, but the peak - season expectation of steel demand is difficult to be fulfilled. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore futures also oscillated and rebounded. The Sino - US economic and trade cooperation has reached a framework consensus, and the anti - involution policy expectation has increased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the approaching National Day holiday. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong [21][22][23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal declined on Monday. The US soybean harvest has started. The US soybean's excellent - rate and harvest progress are basically in line with expectations. The NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August was higher than expected. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the spot supply is sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in a range [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this week, the US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. India's palm oil imports in August remained strong, and the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in early September increased. Palm oil prices are expected to adjust in the short term [26][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant inflow of funds into the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876), which has seen a year-to-date increase of over 50% as of September 16, 2023 [1][2] - On September 15, 2023, spot gold reached a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and increased market risk aversion [1] - Analysts suggest that the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper and boosting global demand, while also reducing borrowing costs for companies, thereby increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities forecasts that the ongoing monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, combined with domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors and improving profitability, will support upward price transmission for metals [2] - As of the end of August, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) have significant weightings in copper (25.3%), aluminum (14.2%), rare earths (13.8%), gold (13.6%), and lithium (7.6%), which helps to diversify risk compared to investing in single metal sectors [2] - The latest scale of the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) reached a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15, 2023 [2]

Investment Highlights - Precious metals: Gold has reached a new historical high, with continued recommendations for investment. Recent weak economic data from the US has led to a decline in the dollar index, and gold is poised for an upward trend as it prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Even if the meeting outcomes align with expectations, there is no need to rush to take profits, as the market is likely shifting from recession trading to stagflation trading, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [2][3] - Copper: If interest rate cuts can facilitate a soft landing, copper prices may rise. LME copper has surpassed $10,000. Despite a weakening US economy, the market appears to be pricing in future stagflation or soft landing scenarios, leading to an upward trend in copper prices. With the domestic consumption peak approaching and downstream operating rates expected to improve, copper prices are likely to rise [2][3] - Aluminum: Continued optimism for rising aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, driven by significant improvements in downstream operating rates, which have risen to 62.1%. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, demand from the renewable energy sector is providing effective support. The mid-term impact of US aluminum tariffs is expected to be limited, and the long-term outlook for electrolytic aluminum remains positive [3] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt intermediates continue to rise, with attention on the dynamics of electrolytic cobalt and policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Cobalt product prices have increased, with weekly growth rates of 4.55% for cobalt sulfate and 2.06% for electrolytic cobalt. The market anticipates further supply constraints due to upcoming policy changes in the DRC, which could drive prices higher [3] - Tin: Price increases driven by interest rate cut expectations and supply shortages. Tin prices rose by 2.70%, with operating rates for refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropping to 28.48%. Supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material shortages and seasonal maintenance [4] - Lithium: Prices under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan at the Jiangxi mine. Lithium prices have declined, primarily due to market expectations surrounding the resumption of production. However, supply growth is expected to slow, and demand from the energy storage sector remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the carbonated lithium supply-demand balance [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum [5]