Company Overview - Chujiang New Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Wuhu City, Anhui Province, and was established on December 21, 2005. It was listed on September 21, 2007. The company specializes in the research, processing, and sales of non-ferrous metal (copper) materials, new material thermal equipment, and the production of high-performance carbon fiber composite prefabricated parts [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Chujiang New Materials achieved operating revenue of 44.191 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.29%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 355 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 2089.49% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 1.36 billion yuan in dividends, with 479 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of October 29, the stock price of Chujiang New Materials increased by 2.04%, reaching 14.00 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 1.184 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 5.34%. The total market capitalization is 22.721 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 70.73%, with a 9.03% rise over the last five trading days, a 50.70% increase over the last 20 days, and a 52.51% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Chujiang New Materials reached 72,300, an increase of 67.75% compared to the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 35.84% to 22,327 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth largest with 20.3385 million shares, while E Fund Defense Industry Mixed A is the seventh largest with 12.7166 million shares, showing a decrease of 10.4366 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overall, the global trade situation is showing signs of improvement, with positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting upcoming. The macro - economic sentiment is stable and positive. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. Some metals face supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side factors [1][16][20][24][28][59] - For copper, the macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The terminal consumption is weak, and the price is affected by multiple factors. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to bottom out in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience, with a medium - term upward trend. For zinc, the external market is strong, and the internal market is weak, and the export situation needs to be closely monitored. For lead, the inventory is low in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase in the long term. For nickel, the price is in a range - bound operation. For stainless steel, the price faces resistance. For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. For industrial silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. For polycrystalline silicon, the production is expected to decrease, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. For lithium carbonate, the demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight, with a strong price trend [1][6][12][16][20][28][34][36][44][48][54][60][67][73][80] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2512 contract closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The spot premium widened. The Guangdong inventory decreased slightly, and the North China premium remained unchanged [1] - **Important Information**: China's central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading. Sino - US high - level interactions are being prepared. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. CMOC will invest in the KFM copper mine expansion. Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro sentiment improves, but the supply - side disturbances increase. The SMM expects the October electrolytic copper production to decline. The consumption is weak, but there is still some resilience [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on dips. Hold the inter - market long position. Wait and see for options [10] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell 8 yuan to 2,817 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions were stable, with some minor declines [6] - **Related Information**: Some enterprises made spot purchases. The national alumina inventory increased. The Australian alumina price decreased, and the import cost increased. The supply remained stable [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is in excess, and the pressure is increasing. The price is expected to bottom out in the short term and may rebound if production cuts expand. The import increment will suppress the price rebound [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the supply - side production cuts in November. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract fell 120 yuan to 21,140 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held. The aluminum inventory increased slightly. An overseas aluminum smelter had a production cut [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The global trade situation eases, and the macro sentiment is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption has resilience [20] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price has a medium - term upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21][22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract fell 110 yuan to 20,575 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions increased [24] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased. The import and export volumes of aluminum alloy changed [24][25] - **Trading Logic**: The macro factors are important. The cost is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand has resilience [28] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price fluctuates with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased slightly, but the downstream procurement was poor [31] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased. Teck's Q3 zinc concentrate production decreased. Chihong Zinc & Germanium released its Q3 report. Shengda Resources' subsidiary's mine will resume production [32][33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is abundant, and the overseas inventory is low. The external market is strong, and the internal market is weak. The export situation needs to be closely monitored [34][36] - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit on long positions and wait and see. Consider short - selling on rallies if the export volume is low. Consider long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage according to the export situation. Wait and see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 fell 0.91% to 17,355 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [39] - **Related Information**: Some lead battery enterprises plan to reduce or stop production. A lead smelter is under maintenance. The lead inventory decreased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term inventory is low, and the price rose. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory may gradually accumulate [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [45] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2512 fell 1,760 to 120,560 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of some nickel types decreased [46] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's nickel production is expanding. A nickel mine in the Philippines may be shut down. India is expanding e - waste recycling. A company in Indonesia won a nickel mining contract [47] - **Logic Analysis**: The precious metal correction led to a decline in non - ferrous metals. The LME nickel inventory is increasing, and the price is range - bound [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a range - bound operation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell the 2512 contract wide - straddle combination [49][51] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel main contract SS2512 fell 65 to 12,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were in a certain range [53] - **Important Information**: Baosteel Desheng plans to reduce production and conduct maintenance. The export volume of stainless steel from Indonesia to Taiwan increased. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group remained unchanged [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is not optimistic, and the cost support is weak. The price faces resistance [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies. Wait and see for arbitrage [55][56] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,170 yuan/ton, down 1,790 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the demand was affected by price fluctuations [58] - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade consultations are ongoing. The APEC meeting is upcoming. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The Sino - US trade situation may ease. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is slowly recovering [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is in a high - level range - bound operation. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The September export volume of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import volume decreased [64][66] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price is relatively stable [67] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips and wait for new drivers. No arbitrage opportunity for now. Sell out - of - the - money put options [68][69][70] Polycrystalline Silicon - **Important Information**: Three construction projects of the Three Gorges Group released tender announcements [72] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polycrystalline silicon is expected to decrease in November, and the inventory will accumulate but at a reduced rate. The price has support [73] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Reduce long positions in the short term and buy on dips in the future. Conduct reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts. Hold call options [74][75][76] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 560 to 81,640 yuan/ton. The spot price increased [79] - **Important Information**: Xinwangda launched a new battery. Pilbara's Q3 lithium concentrate production increased. The sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks increased [80] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is optimistic, and the supply is tight. The price trend is strong, but there may be a correction [80] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first nine months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in profitability [2][3] - The profit growth rate improved by 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous period, with September showing a significant 21.6% increase [3] - The industrial added value maintained a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, supported by export and seasonal effects, while the PPI decline narrowed due to capacity management and market competition optimization [3][4] - Among 41 industrial categories, 21 showed positive profit growth, with high growth in sectors like mining and high-tech manufacturing [4] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 8.076 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, and a net profit of 1.788 billion yuan, up 26.21% [6][7] - The company improved its expense control, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 8.18%, down 1.44 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - An employee stock ownership plan was announced to enhance governance and motivate employees, allowing up to 2,100 employees to participate [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 11.054 billion, 13.429 billion, and 15.808 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 3.08, 3.75, and 4.40 yuan [8] Industry Research - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 0.63 percentage point lag [10] - A new initiative to strengthen self-discipline in the metal packaging industry aims to shift focus from price competition to value competition, indicating a trend towards high-quality development [10][14] - Recent price increases in packaging paper and cardboard are expected to support downstream demand, particularly with the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival [14] - The report maintains a neutral rating for the light industry and textile sectors, with specific companies recommended for an "overweight" rating [14] Metal Industry Research - The steel market is expected to face pressure as the off-season approaches, but positive sentiment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" may provide short-term support [15][16] - Copper supply is tightening due to accidents at major mines, which is expected to support copper prices [15][17] - The aluminum sector is seeing improved profits due to new project capacity releases, while the "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance the supply structure [16][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a phase of tight supply driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector, which is expected to support prices [15][18]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade tensions has led to a significant increase in market optimism, resulting in a rebound across global markets, including stock prices, oil, and copper [1][2][3] - Asian stock markets saw substantial gains, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4000 points and the Nikkei index reaching a historical high of 50,000 points, reflecting investor confidence in improved trade relations [2] - The positive sentiment from the China-US trade discussions has also influenced commodity prices, with agricultural products like soybeans and corn expected to benefit from a potential trade agreement [3][4] Group 2 - The progress in China-US trade negotiations has alleviated concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rise in US stock futures and European stock index futures [3][5] - China's industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2% for the first nine months of the year, with a notable 21.6% growth in September, exceeding market expectations [4] - The stability and cooperation between China and the US are crucial for global market confidence, as their trade accounts for nearly one-fifth of the global total, highlighting the interconnectedness of supply chains [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is affected by multiple factors. The decline in risk - aversion sentiment and the expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations put pressure on gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides support. The uneven global economic recovery and the uncertainty of major central banks' monetary policies are the core factors causing gold market fluctuations [3]. - For copper, last week, macro - level positive expectations prevailed, but the weak downstream demand in the industrial chain restricted the price breakthrough. This week, the market will be in a game between the Fed's interest - rate decision and the industry's acceptance of high copper prices, with potential increased volatility [16]. - Regarding aluminum, macro - policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The favorable macro - environment and overseas supply disruptions have led to the rise of aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [34]. - For zinc, the supply - demand situation has not changed significantly recently. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets has widened. The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides support for prices [57]. - In the nickel industry, the new regulations for Indonesia's nickel ore quota application in 2026 are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak season, while nickel - iron prices lack upward momentum. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely [72]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than the demand. Short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong [89]. - For lithium carbonate, considering both supply and demand factors, it may show a short - term oscillatory and strengthening trend [103]. - In the silicon industry chain, industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The polysilicon industry chain has weak fundamentals, and the polysilicon futures have high volatility [115]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The decline in risk - aversion sentiment and the expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations put pressure on gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation provides support. The uneven global economic recovery and the uncertainty of major central banks' monetary policies are the core factors causing gold market fluctuations [3]. Copper - **Price Fluctuation and Market Situation**: Last week, macro - level positive expectations prevailed, but the weak downstream demand in the industrial chain restricted the price breakthrough. This week, the market will be in a game between the Fed's interest - rate decision and the industry's acceptance of high copper prices, with potential increased volatility [16]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous one, continuous three) and London copper 3M are provided, along with their daily changes and percentage changes. Spot copper prices from different sources also show daily and percentage changes [17][20]. Aluminum - **Price Influencing Factors**: Macro - policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The favorable macro - environment and overseas supply disruptions have led to the rise of aluminum prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while cast aluminum alloy has strong support [34]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures, as well as their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot aluminum prices from different regions and related basis data are also provided [35][45]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand and Price Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly recently. The price difference between domestic and overseas markets has widened. The domestic market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and low inventory provides support for prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - level upward drivers [57]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. Spot zinc prices and related premium data are also provided [58][65]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The new regulations for Indonesia's nickel ore quota application in 2026 are stricter. The new energy sector is in the peak season, while nickel - iron prices lack upward momentum. Stainless steel may fluctuate widely. Macro - level factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest - rate cut expectations also have an impact [72]. - **Futures and Related Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel and London nickel 3M futures, along with their changes, are provided. Data on trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts are also included [73]. Tin - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: The supply is weaker than the demand. Short - term supply - side disturbances are difficult to resolve, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with a predicted support level around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin and London tin 3M futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot tin prices and related data are also provided [89][92]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply - Demand and Price Trend**: Considering both supply and demand factors, it may show a short - term oscillatory and strengthening trend. The supply may increase with the release of lithium ore production capacity, while the demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to grow [103]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts, along with their daily and weekly changes, are given. Spot lithium prices from different sources and related price differences are also provided [104][108]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand and Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The polysilicon industry chain has weak fundamentals, and the polysilicon futures have high volatility. Attention should be paid to industry policies [115]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon futures contracts, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are presented. Spot industrial silicon prices from different regions and related basis data are also provided [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Although the recent rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, the easing of Sino - US trade frictions and the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting have led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategy is to go long in the short - term and conduct positive spreads for Shanghai copper futures [9]. - Zinc: Recently, the risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc has increased, and the expectation of zinc ingot outflow is strong. Coupled with the improvement of macro sentiment, zinc prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external reverse spreads when the export window opens [83]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly driven by macro factors. In the medium - to - long - term, there is still pressure of oversupply of primary nickel. The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the changes in warehouse receipts and positions. The recommended trading strategy for nickel is to go long at low levels in the range, and for stainless steel, it is short - term trading [180][181]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals. For example, the current value of the US dollar index is 98.9, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 0.39%, and an annual decrease of 8.79%. The current value of Shanghai copper is 87,720 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.92%, a weekly increase of 3.95%, and an annual increase of 18.91% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: The possible meeting between China and the US at the end of the month eases Sino - US trade frictions, and the US inflation data in September strengthens the expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the month. China's economic data in September shows that the production side is improving, but the demand side is weak, and the transformation of new and old driving forces takes time [9]. - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly declined. The suspension of mining at Freeport's Grasberg block cave mine will lead to a short - term decline in copper and gold production [9]. - **Smelting End**: With the recovery of sulfuric acid prices, the losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of smelters using long - term contract copper ore have increased. In September, domestic copper production declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [9]. - **Demand End**: The recent rise in copper prices has put pressure on downstream demand, and the operating rate of copper rods has declined [9]. - **Inventory**: The copper inventory has decreased domestically and increased externally this week, and the global visible copper inventory is relatively stable [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Recent macro events are weak, with both positive and negative factors. However, due to the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in October, the overall macro sentiment is neutral to bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to when the US government will resume normal operation and the progress of Sino - US consultations [83]. - **Raw Material End**: The domestic processing fee has been reduced, and the import processing fee has been reduced for the first time. The inflection point of supply - demand in the ore end is emerging. It is expected that the sales of overseas zinc ore in China will remain sluggish, and the import processing fee is expected to increase, while the domestic processing fee may continue to decline in the winter storage period [83]. - **Smelting End**: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. In October, the production is expected to remain above 600,000 tons. The opening of the export window helps to ease the domestic oversupply situation [83]. - **Demand End**: The traditional peak season is coming to an end, but the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious about high prices and mainly consume inventory [83]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has decreased this week. As of October 23, the zinc ingot social inventory was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week. The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [83]. 3.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: The lower - than - expected CPI increase in the US in September has boosted the expectation of a Fed rate cut, supporting non - ferrous metals. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has boosted policy expectations, and market risk appetite has recovered. The recent easing of Sino - US trade relations is also a positive factor [180][181]. - **Raw Material End**: The approval of Indonesia's nickel - ore RKAB in 2026 is in progress. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively strong. The import of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased slightly, and the domestic port inventory has decreased slightly [180][181]. - **Smelting End**: The pure - nickel production remains at a high level. The average price of nickel iron has continued to decline, and Indonesian iron plants still face profit - inversion pressure. The MHP coefficient remains strong, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate has increased [180]. - **Demand End**: The stainless - steel price has rebounded from the bottom, and steel mills have frequently taken price - supporting measures. The production recovery of steel mills is limited. The demand for stainless steel is still weak at the end of the peak season, and the overseas tariff policy is changeable. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy products remain high, and the procurement demand of precursor enterprises has increased [180][181]. - **Inventory**: The global nickel inventory has continued to increase. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory was 250,800 tons, an increase of 0.13%, and the SHFE nickel inventory was 36,000 tons, an increase of 4.81% [180].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, rapid price increases may suppress demand. The main focus is on the 84,000 - 85,000 support level [2]. - Aluminum: The macro environment is generally positive, and the fundamental situation is stable, jointly supporting the aluminum price. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong sideways movement in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Oxide: It is expected that the short - term alumina price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, but the downward space is gradually narrowing [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and supply - demand balance push the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict it. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong sideways movement, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price has short - term support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain a sideways movement, and upward breakthrough requires significant improvement in demand and continuous improvement in non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. The short - term price range is 275,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Future performance depends on macro changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [12]. - Nickel: The macro outlook is optimistic, which may boost the price, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The macro outlook is average, the peak - season demand boost is insufficient, and the arrival of goods at steel mills may increase next week. The fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are clearly improving. The strong demand in the peak season is gradually being realized, and the industry is continuously destocking. The price has support at the bottom. The short - term disk is expected to move strongly, with the main reference range of 76,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.83% to 3,798 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%; imports were 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The import loss was - 2,941 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [4]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,815 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss was - 5,427 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%; imports were 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [10]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 281,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The import loss was - 1,236 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; imports were 17,010 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 13,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 1.23% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 75,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 1060 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%; demand was 116,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.28% [19].

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry, including gold, copper, aluminum, and small metals like tungsten and lithium, is experiencing a positive outlook with strong market confidence despite some concerns regarding price fluctuations and supply-demand dynamics [2][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to find strong support between $3,900 and $4,000, with an adjustment period of 2 to 4 weeks, potentially leading to consolidation until early next year. Inflation may drive future price increases [1][4][15]. - Companies involved in gold production are projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of gold output between 10% to 20% from 2026 to 2029, indicating strong investment potential despite price fluctuations [1][5]. Copper Market - The price of copper is anticipated to be influenced more by supply-demand fundamentals rather than movements in gold prices. A significant price increase is expected in 2026, potentially exceeding $11,000, driven by global liquidity easing [1][7][15]. - Supply shortages are projected for copper due to production guidance reductions from several mines, which could lead to a supply shortfall of approximately 2% in 2026 [8]. Aluminum Market - The electrolytic aluminum sector has outperformed expectations, with domestic production peaking and no significant increases in overseas supply. The demand for aluminum alloys and rods is improving, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [1][9][10]. - Aluminum is characterized by low absolute and relative valuations, with a strong dividend trend, making it a valuable investment opportunity [16]. Small Metals Market - Recent price increases have been observed in small metals such as tungsten, lithium carbonate, and magnesium. Cobalt prices may rise above 400,000 yuan due to supportive supply-demand fundamentals [1][11]. - Tungsten is experiencing a strategic shortage, while lithium's demand is currently strong but supply has not yet caught up, indicating potential for future price increases [11][17]. Steel Market - The steel market faces short-term export pressures but is not expected to collapse. Profit margins for steel companies remain around 55%, although many are operating at minimal profits [3][13]. - Strategic investments in low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies are recommended, especially as some regions begin to reduce production to maintain prices [3][13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector remains optimistic, with concerns primarily focused on gold price volatility and potential unexpected changes in aluminum supply [2][14]. - The market dynamics for copper and aluminum are largely independent of gold price movements, emphasizing the importance of individual supply-demand fundamentals [6][14]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook and investment opportunities across various segments.

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the sector [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the precious metals market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the medium to long term due to inflationary pressures and global liquidity easing, despite recent price corrections [1][34] - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and liquidity easing, while aluminum prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to overseas production cuts and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are projected to see strong price performance driven by positive demand expectations, while cobalt prices are also on an upward trend despite cautious purchasing strategies from downstream buyers [3][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. September CPI recorded at 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][34] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined to 53.6, reflecting weak economic fundamentals [1][34] - The report suggests that the recent pullback in gold prices is considered sufficient, and long-term bullish trends remain intact [1][34] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to disruptions in mining and easing liquidity conditions [2] - Global copper inventory increased by 19,400 tons, with Chinese inventory rising by 17,100 tons [2] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry in China is maintaining production levels, while overseas production cuts are expected to support aluminum prices [2] - Nickel demand remains strong, particularly in the battery sector, with prices expected to rise [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are showing strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.4% to 80,000 yuan/ton [3][25] - Cobalt prices are also on the rise, supported by strong demand from the ternary material sector, although purchasing strategies are becoming more cautious [3][25] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao for industrial metals [2][8] - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [3][8]