Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for October and November showed a decline of 105,000 jobs in October and an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [2] - The labor market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing labor market stability and inflation control, with the non-farm report not significantly impacting gold prices [2] - Gold prices are currently consolidating and have not approached the historical high of $4,380 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The market has likely absorbed the impact of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in Russian oil exports and a subsequent decline in oil prices [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels as of the week ending December 5, indicating weak demand and a sluggish market [5] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, including U.S. efforts to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggests that the oil market will continue to experience an oversupply and a downward trend [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a range of $4,275 to $4,350, with a focus on potential breakout points [3] - Oil prices are nearing an annual low of $55.10, with key support at $54.60 and resistance at $55.80 [6] - The Nasdaq index is in a high-level consolidation phase, with support at 24,900 and resistance at 25,250 [8] - Copper prices are fluctuating between $5.20 and $5.43, suggesting a trading strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [8]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper opened high and closed low. Due to the ebb of AI trading and concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the global stock market tumbled, and copper price rally was frustrated again. The price of Shanghai copper dropped to near the bull - bear line, and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. The spread between near - month contracts narrowed to 80. Spot price dropped by 565, and the discount widened by 185. The overall demand was poor. LME0 - 3 shifted to contango structure, and the loss of spot imports narrowed to around 670. The trading of Yangshan copper remained weak. In the short term, the sentiment transmission of the global stock market has a great impact on copper prices. Before the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock [10] Group 3: Industry News - Morgan Stanley predicts that there will be a 260,000 - ton copper supply gap in 2025, and the gap will further widen to 600,000 tons in 2026 [10] - The monitoring model of China's copper industry monthly prosperity index shows that in November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the "normal" range; the leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 percentage points from the previous month [10] - Korea Zinc will invest $7.4 billion in building a smelter in Tennessee, USA. The project will produce key minerals such as zinc, lead, copper, etc. for the chip, defense, and aerospace industries. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the US government will jointly invest, and a joint - venture company Crucible JV LLC will be established. The project is planned to start construction in 2026 and be put into commercial operation in 2029 [10] - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources has been approved by the Canadian government. Anglo American will invest at least C$4.5 billion in Canada within five years, making the group's total investment in Canada in the next 15 years at least C$10 billion. The merged mining company will be headquartered in Vancouver [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is not overly pessimistic. Fed's policy and domestic economic work conference set a positive tone. Different metals have different price trends based on supply - demand and other factors. For short - term trading, it is recommended to be cautious and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: US November non - farm data was better than expected, unemployment data was worse than expected, and the US dollar index declined. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.57% to $11,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,830 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 to 166,600 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 to 46,000 tons [3] - **策略观点**: Fed's bond - buying makes liquidity expectations marginally loose, and the domestic central economic work conference has a positive policy tone. The copper ore supply is tight, the refined copper supply is expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate is stable. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the SHFE copper main contract operating range of 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at $11,500 - 11,800/ton [4] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026. LME aluminum closed up 0.26% to $2,882/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,825 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 625,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 77,000 tons. Global aluminum inventories are at a relatively low level [6] - **策略观点**: Global aluminum inventories are decreasing, with support from overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies. Although there are some negative factors, if inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices may rise after adjustment. The SHFE aluminum main contract operating range is 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is at $2,850 - 2,910/ton [7] Lead - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 1.07% to 16,840 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 82,500 lots. LME lead 3S fell by $27 to $1,944/ton, and the total position was 180,500 lots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 80 tons to 23,700 tons [9] - **策略观点**: Lead ore inventory is basically stable, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, and that of secondary lead is rising. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is rising. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide range in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.74% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 207,500 lots. LME zinc 3S fell by $91 to $3,063/ton, and the total position was 236,000 lots. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 2,500 tons to 125,700 tons [11] - **策略观点**: The visible inventory of zinc ore is decreasing, and the TC of zinc concentrate is declining. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is decreasing, and the LME zinc inventory is slowly increasing. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains. The Fed's policy stimulus is limited before March 18 next year [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 320,620 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined in the off - season, and the high tin price suppresses downstream purchasing willingness. The national main social inventory of tin ingots increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons last week [13] - **策略观点**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, due to low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is at $39,000 - 43,000/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron weakened [16] - **策略观点**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. The price of refined nickel has dropped significantly, and the premium of refined nickel has reached the support level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is at $13,000 - 15,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 97,569 yuan, up 1.35%. The LC2605 contract closed at 100,600 yuan, down 0.46% [20] - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate market opened high and closed low. There are differences in the market regarding supply release and demand realization. The probability of a weak adjustment in the lithium price range is relatively high. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 2,606 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position decreased by 6,000 to 606,000 lots. The Shandong spot price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 2,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,400 tons to 246,200 tons [23] - **策略观点**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is复产. The alumina smelting capacity is in excess, and the inventory is increasing. However, the current price is close to most manufacturers' cost lines, and the probability of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,320 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,018 tons. The social inventory increased to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**: The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The raw material price has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is in a tight balance, and prices fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 29,000 lots, and the trading volume was 5,700 lots. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly to 48,800 tons [29] - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply - side disruptions, providing support for prices. However, demand is unstable, and there is交割 pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]

Macro and Strategy Research - The November 2025 economic data shows that the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5.0% and previous value of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 2.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to -2.6%, worse than the expected -2.3% and previous -1.7% [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds increased by 1 to 4 basis points, while the overall credit bond issuance scale grew [8] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with company bonds and medium-term notes seeing positive net financing [8] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced a rise in transaction volume, with most credit bond yields declining [8] Fund Research - The total scale of the CSI A500 ETF surpassed 210 billion yuan, with notable performance in the communication and defense industries [11] - The average return of equity funds increased by 0.83%, with a positive return ratio of 57.63% [12] - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 12.827 billion yuan, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs [13] Industry Research - The steel industry faces weakening demand as the off-season progresses, leading to downward pressure on steel prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable due to tightening supply forecasts for 2026, supported by macroeconomic conditions [16] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to see stable profits due to strict domestic production limits, with demand driven by new energy vehicles [17] - Gold prices are influenced by U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors, with a long-term bullish outlook due to central bank purchases [18] - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from export controls and strategic importance, with a focus on companies with strong resource and processing capabilities [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices opened high and closed low. The market is expected to remain in a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with potential to reach 10000 yuan/ton if production drops significantly, or fall to 7500 yuan/ton under certain negative scenarios. Attention should be paid to position management [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices are oscillating higher. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The current price is in a high - level oscillation. Future trends depend on the extent of production cuts. The trading strategy for the main contract (now 2605) is to wait and see [3]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, but Indonesian exports increased in November, causing tin prices to decline. However, considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [5]. Nickel - The nickel market is under fundamental pressure. Macro factors have limited impact on nickel prices. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has fallen, and domestic inventory is increasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 110000 - 118000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and nickel - iron prices have stopped falling, providing cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose overall. The fundamentals are in a situation of strong supply and demand. The market is affected by news such as the slow resumption of production of large mines. The price may be strong in the short - term under the influence of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement in the off - season [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in an oversupply situation, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may face a pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate between 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating. The supply side is gradually shifting from loose to tight, and demand has shown structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract support at 23000 - 23200 yuan/ton [15]. Copper - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The high price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. The supply side may face tightness, and the demand is being suppressed. The price is expected to have limited downside space, with the main contract support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are oscillating strongly, with strong cost support but weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained stable on December 12 compared to December 11, while the basis decreased significantly. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 16.39% [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 150.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Most inventories increased slightly on a weekly or daily basis, such as the Xinjiang factory - level inventory increasing by 3.39% on a weekly basis [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the N - type material basis decreased by 41.13% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose by 2.56%. The spreads between different contracts showed significant fluctuations, such as the near - month to the first - continuous contract spread decreasing by 1206.25% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Polysilicon imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.76% on December 16 compared to the previous value, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 22.73% [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 8.14%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 18.06% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. Refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [5]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices decreased by 0.72% and 0.70% respectively. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1.92% [7]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Costs**: The production cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed small changes, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable, while that of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 20.99% [8]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, such as the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remaining at 57 US dollars/wet ton [8]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36%. Stainless steel imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.69%, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.30% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.69% and 0.71% respectively. The basis increased by 0.69% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.54%, and the alumina average price remained stable. The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased by 1977 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different aluminum contracts showed various changes, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 35 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and overseas production decreased by 3.50%. In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [12]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.97%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 813.46 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.03 [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 4.12% [15]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.42%, and the premium increased by 80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61%. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.51% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 0.54% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.69%. The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84%. In October, imports decreased by 7.06%, and exports increased by 31.49% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08% [18].

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that in 2026, domestic macro policies will focus on improving quality and efficiency, emphasizing economic transformation, new consumption drivers, and effective investment [3][21] - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, multiple constraints on policy conditions may lead to volatility due to "expectation gaps" [3][21] - The differentiation in global monetary policy and structural growth disparities in industries will continue to manifest [3][4] Group 2 - The structural differentiation in economic growth will lead to price differentiation in commodities, with strategic and scarce commodities likely to have price-raising potential [4] - Commodities closely linked to strong growth industries may experience volatility due to supply-side vulnerabilities [4] - Industries and commodities that do not benefit from economic transformation may face further value erosion [4] Group 3 - Long-term narratives such as productivity improvements driven by new technologies, industrial transfers, and the new energy wave remain valid [5] - Strategic competition awareness among major economies and increased trade barriers are key drivers of commodity demand, extending into every corner of the supply chain [5] - Key trading themes include growth in energy storage demand, investment in AI-driven industries, resource nationalism, and supply chain risks [5] Group 4 - In 2025, commodities experienced "two resonances and two differentiations," with notable performance in precious metals and non-ferrous metals during certain periods [6][10] - The first differentiation occurred from post-Spring Festival to the end of March, with weak performance in black metals and oil prices, while non-ferrous metals remained strong [6] - The second resonance was driven by external policy shocks, leading to a collective weakening of commodities, except for precious metals [8][9] Group 5 - The report highlights the importance of understanding the differences in value logic among various commodities to construct a foundation for understanding structural market changes [8][9] - The macro events have repeatedly reversed the differentiation based on different industrial fundamentals, creating resonance in the market [9] - The performance of precious metals has been notably strong, supported by economic expectations and safe-haven attributes [10][11] Group 6 - The supply-side pressure on domestic commodities remains significant, with limited effective contraction in supply leading to persistent weakness in certain commodities [12][16] - The report notes that stable supply in certain industries may not benefit from economic transformation, leading to further price declines [12][16] - The competition between old and new energy sources is intensifying, with both facing price pressures and potential oversupply [17][19] Group 7 - Geopolitical risks and domestic policies are influencing commodity strategies, with ongoing tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East affecting market dynamics [19][20] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of geopolitical risks on commodity strategies [19][20] - The global economic landscape is shifting, with a focus on internal economic growth rather than external trade confrontations [20][21] Group 8 - The report outlines a strategic framework for commodity allocation in 2026, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing industrial product prices through high-quality development policies [24][25] - The adjustment of production capacity and the elimination of backward capacity are highlighted as measures to stabilize prices [25][26] - The report anticipates that consumer support policies will continue, focusing on new consumption and service sectors [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to positively impact the prices of precious and base metals, leading to a favorable liquidity environment in the market [2]. Precious Metals - The confirmation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has catalyzed a steady increase in precious metal prices, with London spot silver prices surpassing $60 per ounce [2]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a loose liquidity environment leading up to Christmas, which is expected to support continued strength in precious metal prices [2]. Copper - Macro disturbances have increased, leading to fluctuations in copper prices. Although prices reached new highs following the Fed's actions, they faced downward pressure due to renewed concerns over AI and hawkish comments from some Fed officials [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PCE, along with Japan's monetary policy meeting, are expected to heighten macroeconomic impacts, resulting in a primarily volatile copper price outlook [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are showing a strong upward trend due to macroeconomic support from the Fed's rate cut, despite ongoing pressure from excess supply of alumina [2]. - The aluminum processing operating rate has declined to 61.8%, influenced by high prices and environmental production restrictions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with a slight increase in production and a significant reduction in inventory by 2,133 tons, although December's new energy vehicle sales data is expected to show weakness [3]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand remains cautious [3]. - Rare earth prices have decreased, particularly for medium and heavy rare earths, while tin supply faces uncertainties from geopolitical disturbances [3].