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宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250616
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 16, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [1][5][14][23][40][47]. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis and Spread Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The basis chart shows the relationship between the spot price of China's Shengli crude oil and the closing price of the active contract of INE crude oil [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: The basis chart presents the relationship between the FOB Singapore fuel oil spot price and the closing price of the active contract of fuel oil [7]. - **Chemicals**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of natural rubber was 25 yuan/ton, and the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2368 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed different values. For example, on June 13, the basis of rebar was 101.0 yuan/ton, and that of iron ore was 94.0 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different delivery months and inter - variety spreads such as screw/ore, screw/coke, etc. are presented [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The basis data of domestic copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 9 to June 13, 2025 are provided. For example, on June 13, the basis of copper was 1080 yuan/ton [24]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are given [30]. Agricultural Products - **Basis, Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. are presented. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 161 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 367 yuan/ton [38][40]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Inter - period Spreads**: The basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures are provided. For example, on June 13, 2025, the basis of CSI 300 index futures was 7.78 [48].
安粮观市:宏观、产业、技术面面俱到
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 03:05
Group 1: Macro and Index Futures - The stock index futures market has shown certain volatility recently, with the main contracts rising to varying degrees. The trading volume and open interest have increased, indicating rising attention to small and medium - cap index products. However, the basis is generally at a discount, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. It is advisable to hold a light position and make low - level layouts [2]. Group 2: Crude Oil - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to concerns about oil supply disruptions and driven up oil prices. Fundamentally, the approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, but in the medium - term, the reaction of the Middle East situation and the outcome of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation are crucial. OPEC+ plans to increase production in July. WTI should pay attention to the pressure around $78 per barrel, and in the long - term, the upside of oil prices is limited without major geopolitical impacts on supply [3]. Group 3: Gold - The Middle East conflict has broken the consolidation of international gold prices. On June 13, spot gold prices soared by 1.7% intraday, approaching the April high. Investors should pay attention to geopolitical situations, the Fed's FOMC meeting in July, and the US - EU tariff negotiation deadline. Gold prices may face technical corrections [4][5]. Group 4: Silver - Affected by the Middle East situation, silver prices rose but were restricted by industrial attributes. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts decreased, and trade policy uncertainties suppressed industrial demand. Sprott's silver trust received a net inflow of $500 million. Silver prices are supported by geopolitical risks but may face technical overbought corrections. Attention should be paid to Iran's retaliatory actions, the Fed's FOMC meeting, and the US - EU tariff negotiation [6]. Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The price of PTA is supported by the rising cost of crude oil due to the Middle East situation, but the upside is limited. In June, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The polyester and textile industries are in the off - season, and the market lacks positive stimuli. PTA supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol has increased slightly, with an overall operating load of 55.07%. The inventory in East China's main ports has decreased. The demand side is weak, and it may fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [8]. PVC - The supply of PVC has decreased slightly, and the demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is affected by market sentiment and may oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [9][10]. PP - The supply of PP has increased, with the average capacity utilization rate rising to 78.64%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11][12]. Plastic - The supply of plastic has increased, with the production enterprise capacity utilization rate rising to 79.17%. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, with the overall operating rate rising to 84.9%. The factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures price may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [14]. Glass - The supply of glass has remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the pressure during the rainy season cannot be ignored. The demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate weakly in the short term [15][16]. Rubber - The price of rubber is affected by the repeated trade war situation and the oversupply fundamentals. The domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season, and the supply is abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has decreased. Rubber may show a pattern of slow rise and sharp fall under weak fundamentals [17]. Methanol - The spot price of methanol has decreased, while the futures price has increased. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from the MTO device has recovered, but the traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. The futures price may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices [18]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June report has limited positive support. Domestically, the corn market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field, and weather may affect prices. The downstream demand is weak. Corn may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term [19]. Peanut - In the long - term, the domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. Currently, the market is in the inventory consumption period, with low inventory levels. The demand is in the off - season, and the price may be pushed up by restocking demand. The short - term price may weaken, and attention should be paid to the support at 8200 yuan per ton [20]. Cotton - The US cotton planting and budding rates are slightly slower than in previous years. In the long - term, the cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the price may remain low. Currently, the import is low, and the commercial inventory is lower than usual, providing support. The downstream textile market is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. Cotton may oscillate strongly in the short term [21]. Pig - The government's reserve release has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and the consumer demand is weak. The futures contract 2509 should pay attention to whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14000, and the pig slaughter situation needs continuous attention [22]. Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory. The demand is weak due to difficult storage in hot and humid weather. The current futures price is undervalued, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Soybean No. 2 - The market has digested the positive impact of the China - US trade talks. The USDA's June report is neutral. The US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian soybean is in the peak export season. It may oscillate in the short term [24][25]. Soybean Meal - The global geopolitical situation is unstable. The market has digested the China - US trade talks. The US soybean planting is good, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It may oscillate in the short term [26]. Soybean Oil - The international oil price increase has driven up the domestic soybean oil market. The US soybean planting is progressing well, and the Brazilian soybean is in the export peak. Domestically, the oil - mill operating rate is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. It may oscillate strongly in the short term [27]. Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The complexity of the 2025 interest - rate cut path, global tariff conflicts, and the Middle East risk may affect market sentiment. Domestically, policy support is strong. The copper market is in a stage of resonance, and it is advisable to hold for now, with the defense line moved to the lower neckline of the island pattern [28]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - sentiment is boosted by the China - US economic and trade consultation and the US interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate within a range [29][30]. Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has increased slightly. The price is under pressure, and the futures contract 2509 may show a weak adjustment trend [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by the tight scrap - aluminum market, but the supply is excessive. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year. The inventory is relatively high, and the futures contract 2511 may operate weakly [32]. Lithium Carbonate - The raw - material prices in the lithium industry chain have stabilized, and the supply is stable with a structural adjustment. The demand is weak. The market may continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [33]. Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon has increased slightly, and the demand is weak. The inventory digestion is slow, and the price is under pressure. Aggressive investors can short at high prices [34]. Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon is stable, and the demand is weak overall. The export volume has decreased. The market supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, and the futures contract 2507 may oscillate, with attention paid to the previous low - point support [35]. Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - The technical trend of stainless steel may shift from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [36]. Rebar - The rebar futures may shift from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. The cost is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [37]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The technical trend of hot - rolled coil is stabilizing. The cost is stable, the apparent demand has recovered, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a light - position, low - level, long - biased approach in the short term [38]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The market sentiment is boosted by the easing of China - US tariffs, but the export sustainability is uncertain. The futures contract 2509 may oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed and the steel - mill restart rhythm [39][40]. Coal Mine - The supply of coking coal is expected to contract due to production accidents and new regulations. The demand for coking coal and coke is weak. The futures contracts of coking coal and coke may oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to the steel - mill inventory digestion and policy implementation [41].
甲醇周报:地缘紧张再次升级,甲醇或偏强运行-20250616
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Methanol is likely to run strongly due to geopolitical tensions, and long - position operations should be considered [10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - From last Monday to Thursday, methanol futures fluctuated slightly higher. On Friday, due to the sudden attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, the geopolitical situation became extremely tense, and methanol futures rose sharply. By the Friday afternoon close, the methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,389 yuan/ton, up 5.43% from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol market price continued to be strong, and the inland market rose slightly [14] Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production continued to rise slightly. The output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [16] - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 12, 2025, the olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at 84.26%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde had different changes [19][20] - **Inventory**: As of June 11, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 15.22%. The port sample inventory was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 12.22% [22][27] - **Profit**: As of June 12, the profits of most methanol production enterprises improved, with the profit of Hebei coke - oven gas to methanol averaging 122 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.46%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol full - cost was 32.08 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 147.72%. However, the average profit of southwest natural gas to methanol was - 254 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.26% [29] Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 2.0117 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.27%, an increase from last week [35] - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the olefin industry may see a decline in the start - up rate; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde may decline; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [36][37][38] - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises will be 351,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. Port methanol inventory may decline due to a significant reduction in the unloading of visible foreign vessels [38][39]
苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250612
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 11:04
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the second round of Sino-US economic and trade talks took place, causing significant macro-level disturbances to the market price, which trended upward with fluctuations. Based on current news, the positive impacts of this round of talks have mostly been realized, and styrene is gradually returning to its fundamental situation. Styrene port inventories remain relatively low, resulting in tight spot liquidity and a strong near-month basis. In the medium to long term, styrene supply is expected to recover while demand enters a slow season, presenting a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for styrene is in the range of 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a historical percentile (3-year) of 85.8% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,350 - 7,450 yuan/ton. Additionally, selling call options (EB2507C7500) with a 50% ratio at a range of 60 - 90 can reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and purchases are to be made based on orders, it is advisable to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7,100 - 7,200 yuan/ton. Selling put options (EB2507P7200) with a 75% ratio at a range of 30 - 50 can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The market price is greatly affected by macro factors during the Sino-US economic and trade talks, but styrene is gradually reverting to its fundamentals. Port inventories are low, spot liquidity is tight, and the near-month basis is strong. In the long run, supply will recover and demand will enter a slow season, showing a near-strong and far-weak pattern [3]. Positive Factors - As of June 9, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (-10.21%) from the previous period, indicating another round of destocking at the port [4]. - The raw material inventory of downstream styrene factories is low, and the restocking demand provides some support for the styrene price, with a strong basis for the June contract [4]. - Supported by macro-level positives and restocking by downstream factories, the price of pure benzene has risen. This week, Sinopec raised the listed price of pure benzene to 6,000 yuan/ton [8]. Negative Factors - As of June 9, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 149,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.76%. European supplies are expected to arrive in mid to late June, and the import volume of pure benzene in June is still expected to be high [9]. - The previously shut-down units of pure benzene and styrene are gradually resuming operation, and the peak maintenance period has passed, leading to an increase in supply [9]. - There is news that the US has lifted restrictions on ethane exports, alleviating the supply contradiction at the raw material end [9]. - As of June 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 191,400 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons (12.16%) from the previous period [9]. Market Data - The daily change in the styrene basis shows different trends for different contracts, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. - The prices of various products in the styrene and pure benzene industrial chains, including crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, have different degrees of change compared to the previous day and the previous week [11][12]. - The profits of different products in the styrene downstream industry, such as EPS, HIPS, GPPS, and ABS, also show different trends [12].
国投安粮期货股指日报-20250612
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global market shows a differentiated pattern, with the Fed's rate - cut expectations constrained by inflation resilience and the ECB hinting at the end of the easing cycle. The equity market is supported by loose funds, but external disturbances and volume - energy sustainability should be watched [3]. - Crude oil may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but its upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts on supply [4]. - Gold is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, and investors should pay attention to US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [5][6]. - Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation, and US inflation data will affect its short - term direction [7]. - Most chemical products are expected to have a weak or bearish short - term trend, with supply - demand contradictions and inventory changes being important influencing factors [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. - Rubber may have a weak rebound after the short - term negative factors are realized, but it is still affected by the oversupply situation [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price is in an oscillation range, and the progress of Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment should be watched [19]. - Agricultural products show different trends. Corn may oscillate in the short - term, peanuts may decline slightly but have limited downside, cotton may be strong in the short - term, and the prices of other agricultural products are also affected by supply - demand and seasonal factors [20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. - Metal prices have different trends. Copper may touch the bubble price line, aluminum may oscillate in a range, alumina shows a weak adjustment, and other metals are also affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and global economic situation [32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - Black metal products' prices also vary. Stainless steel may oscillate at a low level, and steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil can be considered for light - position long positions at low prices, while iron ore and coal may oscillate in the short - term [41][42][43][44][45][46] Summary by Industry Macro - Index - Market analysis: Global markets are differentiated. The Fed's rate - cut expectations are constrained, and the ECB hints at the end of the easing cycle. The central bank maintains a "broad credit, stable currency" policy. The equity market is supported by loose funds, with capital flowing to non - banking finance and technology sectors. Index futures show short - covering and a decline in the PCR indicator [3]. - Reference view: Pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's policy implementation. Short - term holding along the 5 - day moving average is advisable. Be wary of the risk of insufficient volume energy [3]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The second - round Sino - US negotiations reach a "framework agreement in principle," and the oil price may oscillate strongly. Focus on the key level of $65 per barrel for WTI [4]. - Market analysis: OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts, and US policies cause concerns about demand. Although US crude oil inventories decline, refined product inventories increase. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase supply uncertainty, and OPEC+ plans to increase production [4]. - Reference view: Watch whether WTI can break through $65 per barrel in the short - term. In the long - term, the upside is limited without major geopolitical impacts [4]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: US economic resilience pressures short - term gold prices, but multiple factors support it in the long - term. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks limit the downside space, and the Fed's policy also affects the price [5]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold futures warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. The spot price has a discount compared to the futures price [6]. - Operation suggestion: Gold is expected to oscillate. Investors should watch US CPI, PPI data, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6]. Silver - Market price: On June 11, the international spot silver price oscillated narrowly [7]. - Market analysis: Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver futures warehouse receipts increased significantly. Global economic growth expectations are lowered, and trade tensions ease, reducing the safe - haven demand for silver [7]. - Operation suggestion: Silver will maintain a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to US inflation data [7]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect PTA costs. PTA device maintenance and restart coexist, with an overall increase in the operating rate and a decrease in inventory days. Polyester and textile loads decline, and weak orders may intensify supply - demand contradictions [8]. - Reference view: It may oscillate bearishly in the short - term [8]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price is flat, and the basis is positive [9]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows a slight decline in the overall operating rate and an increase in coal - based production. Demand is weak due to the off - season. Inventories in the East China main port increase, and future arrivals may limit the upside [9]. - Reference view: The price may be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. PVC - Spot information: The East China 5 - type PVC spot price increased, and the ethylene - calcium price difference decreased [10][11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, but downstream demand is still weak. Inventories decreased. The futures price oscillated at a low level without significant fundamental improvement [10][11]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price will oscillate at a low level [11]. PP - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions fluctuate slightly [12]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, and production volume rose. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream orders decreased. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price oscillated at a low level [12]. - Reference view: Demand is weak, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Plastic - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions have different changes [14]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate changed little. Inventories of production enterprises increased. The futures price may oscillate [14]. - Reference view: The fundamentals are weak, and the futures price may oscillate in the short - term [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The heavy - soda prices in different regions are stable [15]. - Market analysis: The overall operating rate and production volume increased. Factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories decreased. Demand is average, and the market lacks new drivers [15]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: The 5mm glass prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: The operating rate and production volume decreased slightly. Inventories increased, and demand is weak. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. - Reference view: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [17]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade negotiations and typhoons affect the price. The supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season. Downstream tire operating rates decline, and trade - war concerns suppress demand, but there is a rebound expectation after the negative factors are realized [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream operating rates. It may start a weak rebound after short - term negative factors are realized [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, and prices in other regions vary [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price increased slightly. Port inventories increased. Supply pressure is high, and demand from MTO devices recovers, while traditional downstream demand is in the off - season [19]. - Reference view: The futures price is in an oscillation range. Watch Sino - US negotiations and macro sentiment [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Good weather in US corn - growing areas and Sino - US trade relations affect imports. The domestic market is in the transition period between old and new grains, with tight supply in the short - term. Wheat substitution and weather are key factors. Downstream demand is weak [20][21]. - Reference view: The corn futures price may oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short - term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The domestic peanut planting area is expected to increase in 2025. The market is in the inventory - consumption period, with low imports and low inventory levels. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventories may support the price [22]. - Reference view: The peanut price may decline slightly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Band - trading is advisable [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations ease, boosting the market. In the long - term, cotton supply is expected to be abundant. In the short - term, low imports and low commercial inventories support the price, but downstream demand is weak [23]. - Reference view: The cotton price may be strong in the short - term. Watch whether it can fill the previous gap [23]. Pig - Spot market: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas increased slightly [24]. - Market analysis: Farmers resist low - price sales, reducing supply. Demand is weak due to warm weather, and terminal consumption lacks improvement [24]. - Reference view: The live - pig futures price may oscillate weakly. Watch the slaughter situation [24]. Egg - Spot market: The national average egg price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing chickens decreases, and old - hen culling increases, supporting the price. Demand may increase in the tourism and catering industries during the summer vacation, but the plum - rain season suppresses consumption [25]. - Reference view: The egg futures price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [25]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The rapeseed meal price in Fangchenggang increased [27]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is weak due to a small price difference with soybean meal and the off - season. Watch Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [27]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of rapeseed meal futures at the upper pressure level [27]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The rapeseed oil price in Fangchenggang is stable [28]. - Market analysis: Domestic and near - term imported rapeseed supplies are abundant, while far - term imports are tight. Demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short - to - medium - term [28]. - Reference view: The rapeseed oil futures price may oscillate near the platform [28]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans are provided [29]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market confidence. Good weather in US soybean - growing areas and the peak season of Brazilian soybean exports affect the price [29]. - Reference view: The soybean No. 2 futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [29]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Soybean meal prices in different regions are provided [30]. - Market analysis: Pay attention to Sino - US trade talks. Internationally, trade talks boost confidence, and tariffs and weather are key factors. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and downstream demand is weak, but inventory accumulation is slow [30]. - Reference view: The soybean meal futures price may oscillate strongly in the short - term [30]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Soybean oil prices in different regions are provided [31]. - Market analysis: Internationally, supply pressure and falling oil prices put pressure on soybean oil. Domestically, oil - mill production is high, and demand is in the off - season, with inventory accumulation pressure increasing [31]. - Reference view: The soybean oil futures price may oscillate in the short - term [31] Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the import copper ore index also rose [32]. - Market analysis: US economic data reduces recession concerns and rate - cut expectations. Global tariffs and domestic policies affect the market. Raw material issues and inventory changes make the market more complex [33]. - Reference view: The copper price may touch the bubble price line. Consider removing defenses based on signals [33]. Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [34]. - Market analysis: The cost of alumina increases, supporting the theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum. Supply is expected to be in surplus, and demand is in the off - season. Inventories decline, and the spot market is at a premium, but demand limits the upside [34]. - Reference view: The aluminum futures price may oscillate in a range [34]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average alumina price decreased slightly, and prices in different regions vary [35]. - Market analysis: Sino - US trade talks boost market sentiment. Supply slightly decreases as smelters' profits improve. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories start to accumulate. The price is under pressure [35]. - Reference view: The alumina futures price shows a weak adjustment trend [35]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy are stable [36]. - Market analysis: The high price of scrap aluminum supports the cost. Supply is in surplus as the industry expands. Demand from new - energy vehicles and electronics is resilient but limited by tariffs and the global economy. Inventories are high and may continue to accumulate [36]. - Reference view: The cast aluminum alloy futures price may be strong [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are stable [38]. - Market analysis: The upstream raw - material market shows signs of stabilization, supply is stable but the structure is adjusting, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at the bottom [38]. - Reference view: Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can trade in the range [38]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon are stable [39]. - Market analysis: Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak as downstream industries cut production or have low operating rates. Inventories are digested slowly, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it may rebound [39]. - Reference view: The industrial silicon futures price may oscillate strongly at the bottom [39]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [40]. - Market analysis: Supply shows no obvious contraction, and demand is weak overall, with some differentiation. Exports decline. The market's supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated [40]. - Reference view: The polysilicon futures price may oscillate. Watch the previous low - point support [40] Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil increased [41]. - Market analysis: Technically, it may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation. Fundamentally, the raw - material market is quiet, and cost supports the price, but weak demand restricts the upside [41]. - Reference view: It may oscillate widely at a low level. Wait and see for now [41]. Rebar - Spot information: The price of rebar in Shanghai is stable [42]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, and demand is in the off - season, but inventories are low and the valuation is low [42][43]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [43]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is stable [44]. - Market analysis: Technically, it is stabilizing. Fundamentally, external talks are going well, raw - material prices are stabilizing, costs are dynamic, apparent demand recovers, and inventories are low with a low valuation [44]. - Reference view: The overall valuation is low. Consider light - position long positions at low prices [44]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The iron ore price index and futures price are provided [45]. - Market analysis: Supply pressure eases as global shipments increase and domestic production rises slightly. Demand weakens as steel - mill operating rates decline, but current iron - water production is still high. Port inventories increase, and demand in the off - season is expected to be weak. Sino - US tariff easing boosts sentiment, but steel - billet exports are uncertain. Non - mainstream ore production cuts support the price, but reduced steel - mill profits may suppress demand [45]. - Reference view: The iron ore futures price may oscillate in the short - term. Watch port inventory
化工日报:供应陆续回升,EG震荡运行-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:27
化工日报 | 2025-06-12 供应陆续回升,EG震荡运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日EG主力合约收盘价4285元/吨(较前一交易日变动+16元/吨,幅度+0.37%),EG华东市场现货价 4375元/吨(较前一交易日变动-5元/吨,幅度-0.11%),EG华东现货基差(基于2509合约)93元/吨(环比-11元/吨)。 生产利润方面:乙烯制EG生产利润为-38美元/吨(环比+1美元/吨),煤制合成气制EG生产利润为60元/吨(环比+0 元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为63.4万吨(环比+1.3万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨(环比+2.1万吨)。上周主港实际到货总数10.1万吨,港口库存平稳略增; 本周华东主港计划到港总数12.8万吨,加上偏港大概20万吨,偏多,港口有累库可能。 整体基本面供需逻辑: 供应端,卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长,6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限,供需结 构依旧表现良性,但是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充,海外到港将陆续回升;需求端,聚 酯减产下需求有所回落,后续关注聚 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250612
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:10
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2025 年 6 月 12 日) 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤(元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/11 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/10 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/09 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/06 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/05 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差(右) 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250611
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:51
棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花:震荡运行 宏观方面,一是 6 月美国国债到期,市场存担忧情绪,二是国内宏观利 好政策出台,央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购,来缓冲 市场资金流动性,三是中美关系异动,6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话,预计特朗普即将访问中国,并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判,四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息,五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看,国内目前供需形势,本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨,去年是 214 万吨,23 年是 163 万吨,今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约,显然有支撑,所以现货基差偏强,棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的,在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下,棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大,新疆丰产,预计 产量 720-750 万吨,巴西丰产至 395 万吨,美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下,预计单产提升,虽然面积减少,可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端,可变性较大,主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间,跟中国宏观持有积极态度,何时形成共振。短中期来看,进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250610
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 07:03
| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 蒋语 Z00170002 2025年6月10日 | | | | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | 品种 现值 削值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1150 1160 | -10 | -0.86% | | | 华东报价 1270 1280 | -10 | -0.78% | | | 1070 华中报价 1070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 1310 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 1118 1107 | 11 | 0.99% | | | 玻璃2509 1006 997 | 9 | 0.90% | | | 05 # 7 32 53 | -21 | -39.62% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | 品中 现值 前值 | 旅跌 | 旅鉄幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1400 1450 | -50.0 | -3.45% | | | 华东报价 1350 1380 | -30. ...
再传减产,EG震荡偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:53
化工日报 | 2025-06-10 再传减产,EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日EG主力合约收盘价4256元/吨(较前一交易日变动-5元/吨,幅度-0.12%),EG华东市场现货价4380 元/吨(较前一交易日变动-20元/吨,幅度-0.45%),EG华东现货基差(基于2509合约)115元/吨(环比-8元/吨)。 长丝企业将继续第三轮减产方案,瓶片可能也将进一步减产,产业链价格震荡下跌。 生产利润方面:乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨(环比-3美元/吨),煤制合成气制EG生产利润为80元/吨(环比-30 元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为63.4万吨(环比+1.3万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨(环比+2.1万吨)。上周主港实际到货总数10.1万吨,港口库存平稳略增; 本周华东主港计划到港总数12.8万吨,中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑: 供应端,卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长,6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限,供需结 构依旧表现良性,但是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充;需求端,聚酯减产下需求有所回 ...