Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Domestic new capacity will be concentrated from August to September, domestic existing plants are operating, and the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick-up has peaked and declined, and port inventories have also declined. However, the downstream of pure benzene is still weak, with large inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain, and the operating rates of aniline, phenol, and styrene have decreased [1][2]. - Styrene: During the peak season, the downstream pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level, and the port inventory has declined. The plant will be shut down for maintenance in the first and middle of September, and the operating rate will decline, but it will rebound in the second half of September. The operating rates of PS and EPS among the downstream have recovered well, and the operating rate of ABS has also rebounded from a low level but with large inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, as well as EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [8][15][17] II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea price of pure benzene and CFR Japan price of naphtha, non - integrated production profit of styrene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf and CFR China prices of pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of pure benzene, import profits of pure benzene and styrene, and the differences between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China prices of styrene [20][23][34] III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate of pure benzene, and the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate of styrene [39][41][44] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][55][57] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][69][75] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - period: Do positive spreads for the EB2510 - EB2511 spread when it is low [3] - Cross - variety: Expand the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low in the short term [3]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with Brent 11 contract rising by 0.88%. Geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential US sanctions on Russia are increasing, providing short-term support to the oil market [1] - However, medium-term supply-demand pressures are expected to increase, with projected global oil market surpluses of 1.64 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The most significant surplus pressure is anticipated in the first quarter of next year [1] - Global oil inventories have increased by 1.2% since the beginning of the second half of the year, confirming ongoing expectations of a loose balance sheet [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals maintained strength overnight, with market pricing indicating that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times this year. Focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's guidance on future paths [2] Copper Industry - Copper prices reached a new high for the year, driven by technical breakthroughs and active trading in LME special warehouses, supported by new US-China negotiations and rising precious metal prices [3] - Domestic industrial value added continued to slow down, with SMM copper social inventory increasing to 154,200 tons [3] Aluminum Industry - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation, with downstream operations continuing to seasonally recover, although aluminum ingot inventories remain low [4] - The market is closely monitoring seasonal demand feedback as the short-term price is expected to test resistance at the March high [4] Zinc Industry - LME zinc inventories are at a low of 50,000 tons, with tight overseas spot markets and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts driving a rebound in zinc prices [7] - Domestic zinc prices are under pressure from weak fundamentals, with a narrow fluctuation above 22,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded with general trading activity, as total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, while downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons [11] - The market is cautiously optimistic about short-term price support, but attention is needed on external changes for long-term direction [11] Steel Industry - Steel prices continued to rebound, with rebar demand and production both declining, while hot-rolled demand significantly improved [14] - High furnace production has alleviated negative feedback pressure, but overall demand remains weak, with steel exports maintaining high levels [14] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose overnight, with global shipments significantly increasing, reaching a new weekly high for the year [15] - Domestic port arrivals slightly decreased, but terminal demand showed a slight recovery, supporting iron ore demand [15] Fertilizer Industry - Urea production has slightly increased due to the recovery of previously shut down facilities, maintaining a sufficient supply [23] - Industrial demand is recovering, with agricultural downstream showing signs of replenishment, particularly in the Northeast market [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing fluctuations as US-China trade negotiations continue, with USDA's September supply and demand report showing a slight decrease in yield but an increase in ending stocks [35] - Domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to 1.1362 million tons, indicating ample supply [35] Cotton Industry - US cotton prices showed a slight increase, with the USDA's September report indicating an upward adjustment in both production and consumption [42] - Domestic cotton sales are stable, with attention on the upcoming new cotton harvest and its impact on market dynamics [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

Oil Industry - International oil prices rebounded last week, with Brent 11 contract rising by 1.84% while SC10 contract fell by 1.39%. The market remains influenced by geopolitical tensions and mid-term oversupply pressures [2] Precious Metals - The market has fully priced in the expectation of three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, leading to a strong performance in precious metals, although volatility has increased [3] Copper - Copper prices saw a pullback after a spike, with high overseas inventory levels affecting market sentiment. Domestic production capacity is stabilizing, and attention is on current copper prices and premiums [4] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices followed the overall strength in non-ferrous metals, breaking through the 21,000 yuan mark. Seasonal demand recovery is expected, with aluminum ingot inventory likely remaining low [5] Alumina - Alumina production capacity exceeds 96 million tons, with rising industry inventory levels. The market is experiencing significant oversupply, leading to price declines [6] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and external supply is tight. The market is experiencing a rebound, but domestic prices lag behind. Short-term strategies should focus on macroeconomic influences [8] Lead - Lead production is expected to decrease due to factory repairs, easing supply pressure. However, demand remains weak, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors [9] Steel Industry - Steel prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with rebar demand and production continuing to decline. The construction sector is slowing down, impacting overall demand [15][16] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are fluctuating, with stable port inventories and a slight recovery in demand. Steel mills are expected to continue replenishing inventories in the short term [16] Fertilizer Industry - Urea prices are declining due to weak market sentiment and high inventory levels among producers. Agricultural demand remains low, leading to a continuation of weak market conditions [25] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market sentiment improving slightly. Total inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential demand recovery [12] Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicates a slight increase in soybean production despite lower yield estimates. Market sentiment remains cautious as weather conditions are expected to impact future supply [37] Cotton - Cotton prices are fluctuating, with expectations of a large new crop. The market is closely monitoring the purchasing behavior of ginners as new cotton comes to market [44] Sugar - Sugar prices are under pressure due to high production levels in Brazil, while domestic sugar sales are increasing, leading to lower inventory levels [45]

成本端疲软弱化利多预期，PX&PTA期现承压运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 需求端：尽管轻纺城单日成交环比明显放量，但当前聚酯环节仍处需求博 弈期。下游聚酯工厂负荷虽维持刚性，但坯布订单传导节奏偏慢导致涤丝 产销波动较大，旺季需求预期尚未被完全兑现。坯布库存消化进程与终端 消费增量能否匹配仍待验证，短期聚酯环节对PTA的采购支撑力度边际转 弱。 库存端：PTA工厂库存延续累库趋势，社会库存维持高位表明现货流动性压 力未减。加工费持续低位运行制约工厂减产意愿，而PX库存同步攀升导致 产业链上游积压压力向中游传导。在供需宽松格局下，库存矛盾仍将压制 现货贴水修复空间，被动累库节奏或延续至旺季订单落地阶段。 2. 聚酯 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月12日，PX 主力合约收6712.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.97%，基差 为-47.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4648.0元/吨，较前一交易日收跌0.85%， 基差为-78.0元/吨。 成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - New ethylene glycol (EG) plant starts trial production ahead of schedule, putting pressure on market sentiment [1] - Domestic EG supply load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term, with the syngas load expected to decline in September; overseas supply losses are still significant, and there is room to revise down imports from September to October [2] - Current demand recovery is slow with insufficient order connections. Polyester load is expected to increase slightly but with limited upside [2] - The September EG balance sheet is slightly balanced, and main port inventories are expected to remain low [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - EG main contract closed at 4,302 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous trading day; EG spot price in East China was 4,422 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.41%); the spot basis was 106 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - Ethylene-based EG production profit was -$61/ton, unchanged from the previous day; coal-based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data provided Inventory Data - According to CCF, MEG inventory at East China main ports was 45.9 tons, up 1.0 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong, it was 36.3 tons, down 1.3 tons [1] - As of September 11, the total MEG inventory at East China main ports was 36.32 tons, down 2.36 tons from Monday and 1.31 tons from last Thursday [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of the crude oil market is still switching between medium - term surplus pressure and short - term geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine previous high - level short positions with out - of - the - money call options [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed's meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs after continuous rises [3]. - Various metals, energy products, chemical products, and agricultural products have different market trends, mainly including trends such as price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and impacts of policies and events [2][3][4] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined. The IEA's September report shows an increase in the supply - demand surplus, with pressure concentrated in Q4 and Q1 next year. The trading logic is between surplus pressure and geopolitical fluctuations, and the strategy is to combine short positions and call options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU仓单 net decreased by 6800 tons in two trading days this week, and FU is stronger than LU due to geopolitical premium [20]. - **Asphalt**: Night - session oil prices dropped, and asphalt followed with a limited decline. Warehouse receipts decreased on Thursday. September's first - week shipments slowed, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Factory inventories increased while social inventories decreased, and overall inventory is flat. Long positions set at the beginning of the week were closed with profits [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is strong due to strong procurement demand in India and East Asia. In early September, the arrival volume in Guangdong decreased, strengthening the support of import costs. Terminal product prices are rising, and the high -开工 rate pattern can be maintained. The spot has stronger support, but the futures price is limited by high - volume warehouse receipts and will run in a range [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: US CPI data in August met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a 4 - year high, verifying weak employment. The market has fully priced in three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year. Precious metals may remain strong before the meeting this month, but be cautious about chasing highs [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Night - session copper prices continued to rise. US CPI increased, and the labor market showed signs of slowing, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut and weakening the dollar. The spot copper price in China was 80175 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was 85 yuan. The inventory of the Steel Union increased by 900 tons to 149,000 tons. There is limited short - term upward space for Shanghai copper, and attention should be paid to the premium of call options with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2520 contract [4]. - **Aluminum**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly and reached the 21,000 - yuan mark. Downstream construction started to pick up seasonally, and the production of aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The inventory of aluminum ingots is likely to remain low this year, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.6 million tons on Tuesday. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will continue to test the 21,000 - yuan resistance [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed Shanghai aluminum and oscillated strongly. The Baotai spot price was stable at 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. The cross - variety price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum has room to narrow further [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the industry inventory is rising. The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to over 130,000 tons. Supply surplus is evident, and spot prices are dropping rapidly. The industry profit still has room to be compressed, and the support level is around 2830 yuan, the low in June [7]. - **Zinc**: The US PPI increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Coupled with low LME zinc inventory, the external market is in a rebound trend, driving the domestic market. The import ore price ratio is not good, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ore. The domestic ore TC decreased instead of increasing, which also supports the price in the short term. The CZSPT issued a guidance price range of 120 - 140 dollars/ton for imported zinc concentrate TC by the end of Q4. The growth space of imported ore TC this year is limited. Short - term Shanghai zinc is strongly supported at 22,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation of "supply increase and demand weakness" remains unchanged, and the market is observing the performance of the consumption peak season [8]. - **Lead**: The increase in refinery maintenance led to a decrease in SMM lead social inventory, and short - position holders reduced their positions at low levels. Consumption is still weak, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The domestic situation is stronger than the overseas situation, and the expectation of overseas low - price lead inflow restricts the rebound space of Shanghai lead. The supply of scrap batteries is in short supply, and the cost of recycled lead has strong support. The supply - demand is weak, and the market lacks contradictions, so it is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Tin**: Night - session tin prices rose. This week, it held the key support level. Overseas, the LME tin inventory is increasing, but the concentration of positions is still high. In China, the social inventory is awaited. The current tin price is 271,100 yuan, with a premium of 850 yuan for the delivery month. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 daily line [10]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The main contract slightly reduced positions and closed up at 53,700 yuan/ton. The market trading enthusiasm declined marginally. The market is in a re - balancing stage dominated by capital games. The spot price is basically stable, and the prices of batteries and components are rising. The effectiveness of cost transfer needs to be verified. Some regions have completed energy - saving inspections of the polysilicon industry, and there is a lack of incremental policy guidance. The market is under significant upward pressure and will maintain a volatile pattern [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract reduced positions and closed up above 8700 yuan/ton. There is an increasing expectation of eliminating high - power - consumption and low - efficiency production capacity, but the actual effect remains to be seen. In September, the supply is expected to increase by 5%, and the production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The decline in downstream demand is limited according to current inventory changes. Short - term industrial silicon is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [12]. - **Other Chemicals** - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated narrowly. Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and social inventory is at a new high. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the supply pressure is large. The cost support is not obvious. The futures price may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated during the day. The industry inventory decreased again, and the spot performance is differentiated. The price is relatively firm, but there is still supply pressure in the future, and it is expected to oscillate widely [28]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - session prices were dragged down by the decline in oil prices. The short - process efficiency of PX is good, but there is a lack of new production capacity. The production growth space is limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of existing plants. PTA is continuously de - stocking, but the processing margin and basis are weakening. The price driver is still the raw material, and recent plant maintenance has increased. Terminal weaving orders are increasing, and demand is improving. Consider the possibility of the relative valuation of PX/PTA to oil rising before the National Day [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to be weak. The trial operation of new plants put pressure on the near - term contract, and the monthly spread declined. The domestic production decreased slightly, and the expected weekly arrival volume increased slightly. The port inventory is low, and the basis is still strong. Attention should be paid to the trial operation of the two new plants [30]. Building Materials - **Steel Products (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices oscillated weakly. This week, the apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered significantly, production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to an increase in hot - metal production, but the low profit per ton restricted further resumption. The market still faces potential negative feedback pressure. The downstream real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing slowed down. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market is pessimistic, and the futures price has insufficient upward momentum. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Night - session iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment decreased, the domestic arrival volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory stabilized and increased. There is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the short term. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, and steel mills' profitability is at a low level. Hot - metal production returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand. Steel mills have a demand for pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the next two weeks. Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the overseas Fed rate - cut expectation is rising. The market speculative sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. Coking profit is acceptable, and daily coking production decreased slightly. The overall coke inventory is rising, and the purchasing意愿 of traders has decreased. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [15]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillated strongly during the day. Hot - metal production has recovered to over 240. The production of coking coal mines increased month - on - month. The spot auction transaction weakened slightly, and the transaction price followed the futures price down. The terminal inventory decreased slightly. The total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to increase slightly. The previous shutdowns are gradually resuming. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream hot - metal production is expected to gradually recover. The price is greatly disturbed by the "anti - involution" policy expectation, and the volatility is large [16]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: As of September 9, about 22% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 16% the previous week. US soybeans rose slightly yesterday. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a range - bound pattern, and the domestic soybean meal spot is slightly weak. Brazil's soybean premium is high, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. With Argentine soybean meal, the supply in Q4 is generally stable. However, if Sino - US trade negotiations are not resolved by the end of the year, there may be a shortage of domestic soybean supply in Q1 next year. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term, and the strategy is to go long at low levels. The USDA will release the September supply - demand report on September 13, and the market expects a reduction in soybean yield per unit [35]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded after a short - term correction. The US soybean oil futures also rebounded after trading on the bearish bio - fuel policy expectation. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report this week, expecting a reduction in US soybean yield per unit, US soybean exports, and Argentine soybean planting area. The domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices rebounded after reducing positions. The domestic situation is weak. In the medium term, palm oil is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. In the long term, the biodiesel policies of Indonesia and the US support the industrial demand for vegetable oils, and the aging of palm trees is prominent. It is advisable to go long at low levels [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of North American oilseeds is under pressure due to the expected tight import of oilseeds in China. The port price of Canadian rapeseed decreased by 5% this week, driving down the price of Australian rapeseed by 2%. Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade negotiations are the main factors affecting the supply - demand and price of rapeseed products. The domestic rapeseed - soybean oil price difference is at a slightly high level, which is not conducive to the short - term demand for rapeseed oil. Rapeseed meal demand is mainly for rigid needs. The futures price may rise slightly in the short - term oscillation [37]. - **Corn**: Night - session corn futures continued to oscillate narrowly. The spot supply in Shandong is abundant, and the purchase price decreased. The Northeast corn spot is strong, and the opening price of new - season corn is higher than last year. The结转 inventory at the northern port is the lowest in recent years. Traders have high expectations for the new - season corn. Cofco will conduct an auction of imported corn today, about 190,000 tons. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before the new - grain opening, and the Dalian corn futures may run weakly at the bottom after the enthusiasm for new - grain purchase fades [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures price oscillated weakly during the day, and the spot price stabilized. The price difference between fat and lean pigs is inverted in many provinces, which may accelerate the slaughter of large pigs. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and the fundamentals are weak. The tightening of transportation policies has increased the downward pressure on pig prices in traditional pig - exporting provinces. The agricultural and rural affairs department will hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation next Tuesday. The current main - contract futures price has dropped close to the level at the beginning of the "anti - involution", so it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Egg**: The egg futures oscillated and slightly reduced positions, and the spot price continued to rise. It is still in the seasonal rebound window of the spot market. The industry still has a high - inventory problem, and the capacity needs to be further reduced. The number of newly - hatched chickens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in Q4 this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, it is advisable to consider long positions, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [41]. Others - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose significantly with heavy trading volume yesterday. The Shanghai Composite Index approached the previous high, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 5% to regain 3000 points. All the main contracts of stock - index futures closed up, with IC leading the rise by more than 3%. Only the IM contract is still slightly at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose collectively, and US bond yields declined at the long end, while the US dollar index closed down. The US CPI data in August basically met expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. Geopolitical situations are at a critical stage, and attention should be paid to the possible linkage with Sino - EU and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. It is advisable to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and also pay attention to the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures continued to adjust. Affected by the expected implementation of the third - stage fee reform of public funds, the market redemption pressure increased significantly, and the attractiveness of bond funds decreased. The bond market fluctuated greatly, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may compete at the 1.8% level. Technically, the yield fluctuation is converging, and the market is quiet. The structural differentiation of treasury bond futures continues, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: On September 11, the PTA futures oscillated and consolidated, with a weak spot market negotiation atmosphere and a weakened spot basis. The recent PTA maintenance and restart are concurrent, the spot market liquidity is fair, but the spot basis has weakened and the regional basis has shown differentiation. The PTA processing margin has been compressed below 200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the results of the OPEC+ meeting this weekend and the changes in polyester upstream and downstream devices [5]. - MEG: On September 11, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) was weakly consolidated, and the basis weakened and then stabilized. The domestic supply recovery of MEG is still delayed. There are still maintenance expectations for some devices in October. The supply - demand structure of MEG from September to October has improved compared with expectations. The transferable spot of MEG will continue to be tight, and the spot basis will maintain a strong pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester sales and device changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content is provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: Futures oscillated, spot negotiation was weak, and the basis weakened. September goods were traded at a discount of 65 - 75 to the 01 contract, at a price range of 4600 - 4635. The mainstream spot basis on September 11 was 01 - 70 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4620, 01 contract basis was - 68, and the futures was at a premium [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, and short positions increased [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and polyester device changes [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: The price center was weakly consolidated, and the basis weakened and then stabilized. The spot basis was at a premium of 115 - 118 to the 01 contract at night, and weakened to a premium of 95 - 98 during the day. The polyester factories actively replenished at low prices. The outer - market price center was also weakly consolidated, with recent shipments traded at 517 - 521 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4422, 01 contract basis was 120, and the futures was at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, and short positions decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The domestic supply recovery is delayed, and there are maintenance expectations in October. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the spot basis will remain strong. Pay attention to polyester sales and device changes [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets** - **PTA**: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the supply - demand relationship showed certain fluctuations. For example, in September 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the output was 626, the total demand was 624, and the ending inventory was 337 [11]. - **MEG**: From 2024 to 2025, the EG production capacity and supply and demand also changed. In September 2025, the total supply was 234, the total demand was 233, and the supply - demand difference was 2 [12]. - **Price Data** - **Spot Price**: On September 11, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, the spot price of PX CFR Taiwan, China was 824 US dollars/ton, the domestic PTA price index was 4620 yuan/ton, and the domestic MEG price index was 4402 yuan/ton [13]. - **Futures Price**: On September 11, the TA01 futures price was 4688 yuan/ton, and the EG01 futures price was 4302 yuan/ton [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The TA01 basis was - 68 yuan/ton, and the EG01 basis was 120 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory Data** - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.84 days [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in East China was 37.24 tons [7]. - **Operating Rate Data** - **Polyester Upstream**: The average operating load of polyester devices increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The restart of Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is expected in November [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG load dropped below 74% [6].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing willingness to increase exposure to China [1] - BlackRock indicates that AI-driven U.S. tech stocks will remain a global investment focus, while Chinese tech stocks are attracting more overseas investor attention due to significant valuation gaps and favorable industry conditions [2] - Citigroup's CEO expresses optimism about the Middle East's growth over the next decade, driven by investment inflows and emerging industries, while noting that the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession [4] Group 2 - Fitch raises global GDP growth expectations but notes a slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, projecting global growth to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year [5] - Wells Fargo anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times before mid-2026, reflecting a soft labor market and stable inflation expectations [6] - CITIC Securities highlights a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the medium to long term [8] - CITIC Securities expects the "pig cycle" effect to weaken by September, aiding improvements in CPI readings [9] - Huatai Securities predicts an improvement in profitability for bulk chemical products, with downstream products likely to recover first [10] - Guosheng Securities emphasizes the shift towards genetically modified crops and high-yield varieties in China's seed industry, driven by national food security policies [11] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes improving industry conditions in the cement sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies with advantageous valuations [12]