Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to fluctuate below 4000 points, with the TMT sector undergoing a correction. The focus remains on sectors with growth potential, particularly AI and anti-involution, while the broader consumer market struggles to expand [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - The TMT sector's allocation by public funds reached a historical high of 40% in Q3, indicating potential for a slowdown in future gains [1]. - Despite strong performance from domestic AI leaders in Q3, stock prices have not met market expectations, reflecting a disconnect between earnings growth and stock performance [1][5]. - Analysts have raised expectations for Q4 earnings, suggesting optimism, but this may increase the difficulty of meeting these expectations [5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There is potential for recovery in domestic manufacturing and opportunities in global pricing industrial resources, such as non-ferrous metals, due to easing trade tensions and overseas interest rate cuts [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on anti-involution themes and specific ETFs like the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) and New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) [7][8]. - The market is advised to remain neutral to optimistic while being cautious of short-term risks in the TMT sector [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economic data is better than expected, boosting global risk appetite, while China's economic growth has slowed down, and the short - term macro upward drive has weakened. Attention should be paid to China's economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. Metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are all affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, and the ISM services PMI rebounded, supporting the strong US dollar and increasing global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and the RMB exchange rate weakened in the short - term. However, the policy stimulus expectation after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened [2][3]. - Asset operations: Short - term cautious long for stock indices and treasury bonds; short - term cautious observation for black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical commodities; short - term high - level correction and cautious observation for precious metals [2]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as power grid equipment, photovoltaics, and batteries, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro upward drive is weakened, and short - term cautious long is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Wednesday night. Short - term precious metals are volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term observation and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The decline of the steel spot and futures markets widened on Wednesday. Demand is expected to decline further from November to December, and supply may contract. The short - term market is expected to be weak and volatile [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures continued to weaken on Wednesday. Supply pressure is large, and prices are expected to fall further [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat on Wednesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply pressure of soda ash remains, and a bearish view is taken in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supported by policies and the impact of Shahe news, glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, but overall demand is still weak [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US dollar index is expected to remain strong. US copper inventories are at a historical high, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. The short - term is in high - level shock [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is volatile in the short - term. Shorting can be considered if the price breaks through the resistance at 21,800 [9]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and demand is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cost support of large manufacturers [11]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to decline. The long - term pressure remains, and the medium - to - short - term focuses on the contradiction between fundamentals and geopolitical risks [14]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support is weakened, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of crude oil [14]. - **PX**: It remains in a tight pattern and is affected by crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is large. The short - term is under pressure [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory pressure is large in November, and caution is needed before entering the market [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It follows the polyester sector to fluctuate, and the medium - term can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to enter a shock - consolidation phase after a short - term decline [18]. - **PP**: The supply pressure exists, but the demand shows marginal improvement. The short - term is expected to fall inertially [19]. - **LLDPE**: Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The market has optimistic expectations, and the price continues to rise [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [21][22]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a short - term adjustment, but the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil is weakly adjusted, and rapeseed oil is supported by factors such as inventory and trade risks [22]. - **Corn**: The market price is stable, and the futures may be supported at the bottom [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally falling, and it is difficult to rebound significantly before the winter solstice [23].

Market Overview - A-shares demonstrate strong resilience amid external negative impacts, with significant sector rotation observed, particularly in consumption, cyclical, and some traditional industries, countering the pressure from the technology sector's adjustment [1][20] - As of Wednesday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 3969.25 points, up 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.37% and 1.03%, respectively, indicating a rebound despite external market pressures [2] Sector Performance - The consumption and cyclical sectors are recovering, with active performances noted in local Hainan stocks, food and beverage, tourism, chemicals, and steel [3] - The power equipment and energy storage sectors have surged, with numerous stocks hitting their upper limits [3] - The technology sector, including CPO, quantum technology, and AI applications, is experiencing a collective pullback, indicating a release of risks as chips concentrate at high levels [3][10] Sector Rotation Logic - The technology sector's high-level fluctuations are seen as inevitable due to previous significant gains driven by CPO and AI, leading to a lack of new incremental funds and resulting in a necessary period of consolidation or adjustment [5] - The rise of the consumption sector is attributed to the traditional peak season in Q4, with increased seasonal demand for liquor, food, and tourism [6] - Policy measures are expected to further stimulate domestic demand, with consumer confidence gradually recovering [7] - The cyclical sector is active due to stabilizing raw material prices, with chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel entering a replenishment cycle [8] - Improvement in overseas economic data is enhancing export expectations [9] - Accelerated domestic infrastructure investment is boosting upstream demand, leading to a shift in funds towards lower-priced sectors and industries with improving conditions [10] Structural Opportunities - Investment focus areas include: - Consumption (liquor, tourism, retail): driven by seasonal effects and policy support, focusing on leading companies and those benefiting from regional consumption policies [13] - Cyclical (chemicals, non-ferrous metals, steel): driven by replenishment and stabilizing raw materials, focusing on leading enterprises or undervalued stocks [13] - Power equipment and energy storage: supported by new energy expansion and policy backing, focusing on storage components and leading grid equipment [13] - Small-cap growth stocks (CSI 2000): indicating a style shift, with attention on newly listed stocks with good performance expectations [13] Investment Recommendations - For the technology sector, it is advised to refrain from chasing high prices and to wait for consolidation or rapid adjustments to complete trend repairs [14] - The consumption and cyclical sectors are recommended for short to medium-term allocations to capture continuous opportunities arising from improving conditions [14] - Small-cap stocks should be closely monitored for fund inflows, with low-priced quality growth stocks being worthy of attention [15]

营造绿色文化。坚持绿色发展是发展观的一场深刻革命。习近平总书记强调，"要弘扬生态文明理 念，培育生态文化，让绿色低碳生活方式成风化俗"。中华民族始终遵循"道法自然、天人合一"的自然 观，体现了对人与自然和谐共生的追求。推动经济社会全面绿色转型，首要的是转变思想观念，促使全 社会自觉参与生态环境保护、切实践行绿色发展理念，自觉推动绿色低碳发展，形成"取之有度，用之 有节"的生活方式。弘扬绿色文化，让绿水青山就是金山银山的理念落地生根，将尊重自然、顺应自 然、保护自然的发展理念融入日常生活，统筹推进山水林田湖草沙一体化保护和系统治理，推动全民行 动，从垃圾分类、节约用水、低碳出行等生活细节做起，让绿色生活方式蔚然成风。提高全社会生态文 明意识，让绿色低碳生活成为行动自觉，为美丽中国建设凝聚最广泛、最深厚的力量。 (本文来源：经济日报 作者张博系北京林业大学马克思主义学院副教授) 打造绿色产业。绿色产业是发展新质生产力的重要载体，也是经济社会发展全面绿色转型的重要物 质基础。《建议》提出"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基"，强调把发展经济的着力点放在 实体经济上，坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向。以绿色产业支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant signs of style switching since November, with traditional value sectors like banks and utilities performing well, while previously strong sectors such as metals, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals have experienced increased volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Style Switching - Historical data indicates that when market valuations are high, style switching tends to occur at year-end, driven by policy, industry trends, and fund reallocation [2]. - Since 2005, there have been five instances of year-end style switching, with four of them shifting towards stable sectors like finance or consumption [2]. - In the current bull market, institutional behavior is likely to dominate style switching, with significant reallocations observed in the third quarter, particularly in the electronics, communication, and power equipment sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior and Profit Taking - The fourth quarter often sees profit-taking pressures on leading sectors, as institutions shift focus from seeking excess returns to locking in profits [3]. - As of the third quarter of 2025, the electronics sector held a 25% share in active equity funds, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) exceeding 40%, marking historical highs [3]. - The potential for structural adjustments is heightened as institutions may face pressure to sell if others begin to realize profits [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook on Technology Sector - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for the technology sector remains positive, with continued value in growth stocks [6]. - The macroeconomic environment, particularly the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is expected to enhance liquidity and support growth stock valuations [6]. Group 4: Balanced Investment Strategy - Multiple brokerages recommend a balanced investment strategy for November, favoring traditional value stocks [7]. - There is a noted improvement in capital returns for sectors like non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, although these sectors have not attracted significant investor interest [8]. - Recommendations include focusing on upstream resources like copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as capital goods and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [8].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a cautious investment approach, suggesting to "build high walls" (focus on dividends), "store grain" (control positions), and "wait for the king" (exercise caution while waiting for external risks to be fully released) [4][6][9] - The A-share market showed resilience despite initial declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index needing to maintain a low point of 3922 to avoid further downturns [4][18] - The technology sector has seen significant gains, with many leading tech stocks reaching new highs, but investors without positions are advised against chasing high volatility at elevated levels [4][18] Group 2: Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market experienced declines due to the Federal Reserve's officials striking down December rate cut expectations and profit-taking in tech stocks, indicating a high-risk environment for investors [5][25] - The report notes that the dollar index has broken through the previously indicated strong point of 99, with expectations for continued strength in the dollar against other currencies, particularly the RMB [30][31] - Commodity markets are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a noted decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.2% due to the strong dollar and ongoing market conditions [33][34] Group 3: Sector Performance - The report highlights that sectors such as coal, banking, and photovoltaic are still at low levels, suggesting that buying in less popular areas can yield excess returns [4][18] - The technology sector's absorption rate remains high, indicating limited room for further declines, while "old" sectors with lower volatility are expected to provide better returns in the fourth quarter [4][18] - The report identifies the Hainan Free Trade Zone as a strong performer, continuing to show resilience in the market [19][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests a potential short-term shift in market style towards small-cap stocks due to high market sentiment and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar providing support for the market [2][6] - Large-cap growth stocks, which have seen significant price increases, may face a phase of adjustment due to high valuations and pressure from performance verification [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industry trends while being cautious of the adjustment risks associated with high-priced large-cap stocks [2][6] Group 2 - In the equity market, the style has shifted towards small-cap stocks, and the value style has gained preference over growth [8][10] - The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles has decreased, indicating a more stable market environment [8][10] - The market structure shows an increase in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation has decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks has declined [8][10] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the non-ferrous and energy chemical sectors has increased, while other sectors have seen a decline in trend strength [13][14] - The volatility of most sectors has risen, except for agricultural products, indicating increased market uncertainty [13][14] - Liquidity performance varies across sectors, suggesting differing levels of market activity [13][14] Group 4 - In the options market, the implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 have remained stable, but there is an increasing skew towards put options, indicating heightened risk hedging by market participants [18] - The ratio of open interest between put and call options continues to rise, reflecting a growing concern about potential risks [18] Group 5 - The convertible bond market has shown a slight recovery, with the premium rate for conversion remaining stable and showing a small upward trend [20] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has rebounded, indicating a shift in investor interest [20] - Market transaction volumes have increased, suggesting a more active trading environment [20]

- The report covers the period from October 27, 2025, to October 31, 2025[2][11] - The market sentiment remains high, with a potential shift towards small-cap stocks due to valuation pressures and performance verification issues in large-cap growth stocks[3][11] - Market style trends indicate a preference for small-cap and value stocks, with decreased volatility in both large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth styles[12][14] - Market structure shows an increase in industry excess return dispersion, a decrease in industry rotation speed, and a decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks[12][14] - Trading concentration has decreased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share declining and the top 5 industries' trading volume share remaining stable[12][14] - Market activity has seen an increase in volatility and mixed performance in turnover rates[13][14] - Commodity market trends show an increase in trend strength for non-ferrous metals and energy chemicals, a decrease in basis momentum across all sectors, and an increase in volatility except for agricultural products[26][33] - Option market analysis indicates stable implied volatility levels for SSE 50 and CSI 1000, with an increase in put option skewness and a decrease in call option skewness for CSI 1000, suggesting heightened risk hedging by market participants[37][38] - Convertible bond market shows a slight recovery, with stable and rising premium rates for bonds convertible at par and a rebound in the proportion of low premium convertible bonds[39][41]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style switch in November, with the banking sector leading the market gains while previously strong sectors like metals and new energy are declining [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On November 4, the banking sector rose by 2.03%, leading the market, while the metals sector fell by 3.04% [1]. - Historical data shows that in bull markets, style switches are common at year-end, primarily driven by policy, industry trends, and fund reallocation [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - In the fourth quarter, there is often pressure to realize gains in leading sectors, as these sectors have accumulated significant increases [4]. - As of Q3 2025, the electronic sector's holding ratio reached 25%, and TMT sector holdings exceeded 40%, both at historical highs [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy to navigate market volatility during the style switch period, while still recognizing the ongoing value in technology growth stocks [5]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor growth stocks due to the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the U.S., which could enhance liquidity [5]. Group 4: Sector Recommendations - Current recommendations include focusing on traditional industries that show improved capital returns, such as non-bank financials, steel, basic chemicals, and machinery, despite their lack of investor interest [5][6]. - The recovery of global manufacturing is uneven but moving towards alignment, with the U.S. benefiting from AI spillover and emerging markets seeing a return of capital and capacity rebuilding [6].

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a decline with the Wande All A index dropping by 1.03% and a total trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, a decrease of 194.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.79% and 1.76% respectively, with southbound capital inflow amounting to 9.832 billion HKD, primarily into China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Xiaomi Group [1][2] Structural Risks and Market Sentiment - Structural risks have accumulated due to a transition from a period of macroeconomic positive signals to a macro vacuum, leading to market declines [2][3] - The market has seen a continuous decrease in trading volume since October 30, with the Wande All A index down by 2.20% and trading volume shrinking from 2.46 trillion yuan to 1.94 trillion yuan [2][3] Trading Volume and Risk Indicators - The current trading volume indicates potential for further decline, with a volume ratio of 50%-70% observed, averaging at 60% [3] - The concentration of trading volume is at 40.64%, below the historical high of 45%, but still above the bottom indicator of 35% [3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on dividend and technology sectors, with the dividend sector showing strength as the China Securities Dividend Index rose by 0.37% and the SW Bank Index increased by 2.03% [3] - It is recommended to monitor trading concentration and consider increasing positions in technology stocks when concentration returns to the 35%-40% range [3] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market remains in a downward trend influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4] - Notably, there has been a significant inflow into innovative drug-related ETFs, indicating a potential area of interest for investors [4] Bond Market Activity - The bond market has shown a pattern of reduced trading volume and fluctuations, with the People's Bank of China announcing a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in government bonds [5][6] - The overall duration level in the market is low, suggesting room for institutions to engage in long-term bond strategies [6] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market has seen significant outflows, particularly in the new energy and precious metals sectors, reflecting a prevailing risk-averse sentiment [7] - The strong US dollar has pressured precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing notable declines [7][8] "Anti-Internal Competition" Sector Performance - The "anti-internal competition" sector has faced downward pressure, particularly in lithium carbonate and polysilicon, due to rising production expectations [8][9] - Despite some basic fundamentals remaining stable, market sentiment has shifted negatively, impacting related products [8][9]