Xml [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 证券研究报告 高波动遇上真空期：大类资产配置月度展望 | [Table_Title] [Tabl e_Author 分析师：] | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003809 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈礼清并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | 报告摘要： ⚫ 12026 年 1 月大类资产表现为韩国综指＞原油＞黄金＞科创 50＞南华综合＞恒指＞日经 225＞做多 VIX＞上证 综指 ≈ 恒科＞标普 500＞纳指＞中债＞美元。1 月底 2 月初，贵金属巨震联动大类资产普调。（1）股商优于债 券，新兴市场优于发达国家，春 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major asset classes in January 2026 shows a trend where the Korean Composite Index outperformed other assets, with significant volatility in precious metals leading to a broad adjustment across asset classes [1][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In January 2026, the ranking of major asset classes was as follows: Korean Composite Index > Crude Oil > Gold > Sci-Tech 50 > Nanhua Composite > Hang Seng Index > Nikkei 225 > Long VIX > Shanghai Composite Index ≈ Hengke > S&P 500 > Nasdaq > China Bond > US Dollar [1][14]. - The commodity market experienced structural upward trends driven by both long-term narratives and short-term realities, with gold and silver showing volatility but not losing their gains [2][21]. - The global stock markets are entering a critical earnings disclosure period, with all major markets showing gains, and a shift in leading stocks within the US market [2][24]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a synchronous rise in hard and soft data indices in the US and Japan, while Europe shows a V-shaped reversal in its data [4]. - China's soft data indicators are inconsistent, with hard data in a vacuum period, but nominal GDP growth is estimated at 4.94% for January, indicating a solidifying trend of improvement [4][21]. - The domestic stock and bond markets have shifted from a "seesaw" dynamic to "synchronous volatility," with the stock market experiencing a spring rally and the bond market undergoing a correction [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The next driving factors for equity assets may stem from price increases and solidified inflation expectations, with a focus on domestic demand recovery post-holiday [5]. - The "M1-BCI-PPI timing system" indicates a slight expansion in scores, suggesting a supportive environment for risk assets despite a convergence in narratives [6]. - The bond market is showing signs of improvement in relative value, with the yield spread between 10-year government bonds and dividend yields indicating a return to a more favorable position for bonds [7]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The technology sector is currently underweighted compared to the overall market, with a significant drop in the score of high-growth assets due to internal and external liquidity conditions [9]. - The dividend asset timing model suggests that macro conditions do not favor dividends significantly, maintaining a low allocation relative to the overall market [10]. - The energy sector has shown strong performance, driven by geopolitical safety premiums and narratives around AI industrial energy consumption [24].

Group 1 - The oil and petrochemical sectors are leading the market, with Hong Kong's central enterprise dividend assets gaining attention due to rising regional tensions and resource competition [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that resource-related dividends will benefit from both overseas power shortages and the synchronization of global manufacturing investment and interest rate cuts [1] - The recovery of gold suggests that the impact of the "WASH" shock is subsiding, but the rebound of the US dollar may continue, potentially suppressing liquidity in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - As of February 4, 2026, the Hang Seng Central Enterprise ETF (513170) rose by 1.20%, with the latest price at 1.6 yuan [2] - The Hang Seng Central Enterprise ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng China Central Enterprise Index, which reflects the overall performance of Hong Kong-listed companies with mainland central enterprises as the largest shareholders [2] - The Hang Seng China Central Enterprise Index has a balanced industry distribution, with nearly 40% in finance, around 20% in energy (including the "three barrels of oil" and coal), and about 10% in operators [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Central Enterprise Index account for 65.99%, with major companies including China National Offshore Oil, SMIC, and major banks [2]

重配有色、传媒等相关行业和个股的基金表现较优 国泰海通证券 1 月基金表现回顾 [Table_Authors] 庄梓恺(分析师) 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月，A 股上涨，债市上涨，美股上涨，油价金价均上涨。基金方面，部分 重配有色、传媒等相关行业和个股的基金表现较优。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月资本市场回顾 股票市场：A 股上涨，有色金属、传媒和石油石化行业表现较优。 2026 年 1 月，A 股上涨。2026 年开年以来，A 股市场热点赛道相继 发酵，在去年中国经济完成全年目标的背景下，A 股市场景气度保 持向上，1 月全月依然延续了慢牛上涨行情。从结构性机会来看，首 先，全球局势紧张加剧全球矿产供给不确定性，全月有色金属行业 表现靠前；其次，AI 大模型公司智谱、MiniMax 相继在港股上市， 以 AI 应用为代表的传媒行业表现出色；此外，国际能源署上调 2026 年全球原油需求增长预期，将需求增幅从此前的 86 万桶/日调整为 93 万桶/日，叠加地缘政治因素，石油石化板块本月走强。 2026 年 1 月基金业绩回顾 基金评价 /[Table_Date] ...

A股股票与基金开户量激增，是市场行情向好的直接体现与有力印证。 刚刚过去的1月，A股三大指数悉数收涨，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别上涨3.76%、5.03%、4.47%，科创综指则大幅收涨近12%。市场整体呈 现"小盘成长占优，大盘价值承压"的结构性分化格局，有色金属与科技两大主线交替领涨。 《金融时报》记者2月3日从上交所获悉，2026年1月，A股新开户数491.58万户，刷新2024年11月以来的单月开户纪录，环比增长89.3%，同比增长 213.1%。同月，基金新开户54.63万户，环比增长123.8%，同比增长168.7%。 | 日期 | 总数 | A股 | B股 | 基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026.01 | 546.27 | 491.58 | 0.05 | 54.63 | 展望后市，国泰海通证券策略团队认为，A股市场有望逐步企稳。一是国内政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回 报；二是中国证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头"。 博时基金宏观团队表示，近期ETF资金流出、海外波动加大，对A股市场形成 ...

东方证券研报分析，化工行业趋势将围绕两条主线发展：一是供给端从份额导向往盈利导向变化的 集体经营策略调整；二是需求端欧洲日韩化工衰退带来的高端出口替代机遇，以及新兴国家崛起带来的 基础材料出口增长机遇。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%，"十五五"开局之年，行业将 进一步从"量"的扩张转向"质"的提升，成长主线明确。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 2月4日早盘，A股市场涨跌分化，中证石化产业指数震荡上行，现涨约0.6%，成分股涨跌互现，中 国石化、上海石化、三棵树等领涨；广东宏大、巨化股份等领跌。相关ETF方面，同标的指数规模最大 的石化ETF（159731）获资金逢低布局，连续20个交易日合计"吸金" ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with indices likely to perform better post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels. The report emphasizes a preference for growth style investments, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors, as the market remains in a spring rally phase [1][2]. Market Style Outlook - Growth style is favored, with a convergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks anticipated. The recommended indices include CSI 1000, ChiNext 50, CSI 300 Quality, and CSI 800 Information [2]. - Historical data from 2016-2025 indicates that small-cap and growth styles have a higher success rate in February. The late timing of the Spring Festival and the upcoming Two Sessions are expected to enhance the performance of small-cap stocks due to increased market risk appetite [2]. Fundamental Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded at 49.3, indicating a return to contraction territory, with both production and demand showing marginal declines. The ongoing structural issue of insufficient domestic demand remains, with policies aimed at expanding domestic consumption expected to be a primary focus [2]. - On the international front, expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and a weaker dollar may lead to a temporary strengthening of the dollar, which could exert pressure on A-share cyclical styles. However, sectors benefiting from industrial trends, such as technology and AI, are likely to be less affected [2]. Liquidity and Capital Supply-Demand - February is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with foreign capital expected to continue flowing in before the holiday and financing likely to rebound afterward. The central bank's measures to counteract liquidity tightening from government bond issuances in January are expected to maintain a stable and ample liquidity environment in February [3][4]. - The stock market experienced a net outflow of tracked capital in January, with financing becoming the main source of incremental capital. The demand side shows an increase in net reductions by major shareholders, while IPO and refinancing scales have decreased, keeping overall funding demand stable [4]. Market Sentiment and Capital Preferences - In January, the risk premium for the entire A-share market fluctuated, with major indices experiencing initial gains followed by volatility. The technology sector remained the dominant style, with significant trading activity in small-cap growth and STAR 50 indices, while large-cap growth styles saw lower trading concentration [4].

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook on mid-cap blue chips, with a focus on price increases in the chemical and agricultural sectors [6][27] - Liquidity expectations are shifting, leading to increased volatility in non-ferrous metals, while the demand for industrial products driven by AI capital expenditure is expected to support price increases in cyclical goods [6][27] - Agricultural products are anticipated to experience a comprehensive price increase due to upstream price transmission and a tight supply-demand balance in major commodities like sugar, corn, and oilseeds [12][27] Group 2 - The trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable [17][27] - The trend for mid-cap blue chips related to cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals) remains strong, while media and defense industries are showing strengthening trends [20][27] - Short-term uncertainty is rising for non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, while medium-term uncertainty for basic chemicals is stable and for agriculture is declining [23][27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the increasing interest in high dividend yield stocks, particularly in the context of declining bond yields and the need for investors to seek higher returns in equity investments [1][2][3] - Long-term value in dividend investing is shifting from merely seeking high dividend rates to focusing on sustainable dividend capabilities, with a recommended expected return rate of over 3%-5% and a strong safety margin [1][2] - The performance of high dividend sectors has shown recovery, driven by strong demand for insurance funds and favorable pricing logic in cyclical high dividend sectors such as oil, steel, and coal [1][2] Group 2 - The market is experiencing challenges in restoring risk premiums, with significant volatility in cyclical products affecting market profitability, leading to a potential "small platform period" for investor risk appetite [2][3] - The insurance sector is seeing robust growth in new business, particularly in dividend insurance sales, which is increasing the allocation of investment funds towards long-duration assets [2][3] - The dividend strategy remains a key focus for equity investments, with pressures on cash investment returns expected to increase by 2026, reinforcing the importance of dividend strategies for companies [2][3] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, dividend strategies are expected to continue serving as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios, with dividend assets showing lower valuation levels and volatility compared to other asset classes [3][9] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (520900) closely tracks the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, which selects stable dividend-paying companies from the central state-owned enterprises [3][9] - The top five industries in the CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index include oil and petrochemicals (28.63%), telecommunications (21.75%), coal (11.80%), transportation (10.47%), and public utilities (7.94%), indicating a strong value and defensive characteristic [4][10]

2026年农历腊月十五，广西贵港人冯先珍和丈夫林树忠履行孩子们的诺言——回家带上爷爷，一起去阳朔过年。 丈夫开着新能源电动车飞驰在G321国道上，而冯先珍则在后排和孩子们热闹地玩起了"词语接龙"游戏。车辆慢慢 减速，转入了那个熟悉的油站——康州南综合能源站，"情暖驿站"那一顶顶鲜亮的红帐篷，像摁下了回放键，将 冯先珍拉回了8年前——那时，她和丈夫还是"摩骑大军"中的一员，一辆摩托车、一大堆行李和年货，4岁的儿子 冻得红彤彤的脸…… "后座绑着年货，孩子夹在我和丈夫中间，一路吹着冷风，10个小时下来手脚都僵了。"38岁的冯先珍回忆。2015 年至2020年，她和丈夫在佛山打工，每年春节都骑摩托回广西贵港老家。夫妻俩一路用毛毯把儿子裹紧，在"情暖 驿站"喝到热粥时"眼泪差点掉下来"。 中国发展网讯 黄嘉莉 记者皮泽红报道 2月2日，春运大幕正式拉开，中国石化"情暖驿站·满爱回家"大型春节公益 活动启动。即日起至3月14日，中国石化在广东、广西、湖南、湖北、云南、贵州、江西等七省（区）春运客流集 中的700座加能站开设"情暖驿站"，为返乡及出行群众提供免费加油、热食宵夜、年货红包等近20项暖心服务，携 手多家爱心企 ...