Group 1 - On September 24, a total of 26 companies were investigated by institutions, with 18 companies being surveyed by funds, indicating a strong interest in these firms [1] - Among the companies surveyed, Mintai Aluminum (601677) received the most attention, with 12 funds participating in the investigation, followed by Antai Technology (000969) and Dongsheng Technology (300073), each with 9 funds [1] - The surveyed companies are distributed across various sectors, with the most represented industries being electric equipment, automotive, and non-ferrous metals, each having three companies listed [1] Group 2 - In terms of market performance, 7 out of the surveyed stocks increased in value over the past five days, with Jin Tai Yang (300606) leading with a rise of 12.67%, followed by New Coordinates (603040) at 10.47% and Honghua Digital Science (9.68%) [2] - Conversely, 11 stocks experienced declines, with Yun Aluminum (000807) dropping by 7.46%, followed by Jingjin Electric and Shuangjie Electric (300444) with declines of 6.91% and 3.66% respectively [2] - Notably, Dongsheng Technology saw a net inflow of funds amounting to 291 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong institutional interest [2]

化学品及终端产品出口的以价换量 出口金额增速平稳，但实物量大幅增加：通过对出口量价进行拆分，多种细分部门的出 口存在以价换量的情况，2023-2025年，从出口价格指数的算数平均值来看，纺服/家具/文 体/电气机械/化纤/塑料橡胶制品/空调/冰箱等与化学品需求相关度比较高的行业均出现了明 显的价格指数下滑，对应每年价格2%~7%的下滑幅度。从出口数量来看，2023-2025年，塑 料/橡胶/汽车/家具出口量保持10%以上增速；化工品/纺服/机电/玩具保持5%-10%的增速。 进口替代&出口扩张 进口替代或出口虽不贡献表观需求，但对消化国内产能有重要意义，近年来国内重点石 化产品的自给率有了大幅提升，以乙烯/PX为例，自给率提升19%/18%，分别对应消化 949/855万吨产能，占其2020-2024年投放总产能的41%/41%。 出口迎来快速增长：产能扩张带来的挤出效应，同时得益于东盟，非洲等新兴市场区域 需求的崛起，欧洲、日韩石化竞争力衰退，产能不断退出，中国化学品出口或迎来趋势性拐 点；2020-2024年苯乙烯/PP/PTA/EVA/PA6/PVC出口量的CAGR均在40%以上，其余监测产品 也均在9 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 09 月 25 日 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|风险平衡式降息落地——政策与大类资产配置周观察》 美联储 9 个月后重启降息。这是美联储自 2024 年 12 月以来的首次降息。 本次美联储对经济前景的表述较 7 月会议有一定变化。本次声明中美联储 删除了"尽管净出口的波动继续影响数据"的表述。美联储对就业市场的 表述较上次会议悲观。更新版点阵图显示，美联储内部分歧依然较大。我 们认为由于就业压力逐步增大且通胀反弹弱于预期，目前美联储决策函数 或暂时向就业倾斜，今年后续两次 FOMC 会议大概率每次降息 25bp。1、 权益：A 股方面，9 月第三周三大指数基本维持平稳，其中中证 100 和创 业板指数单周分别涨 1.08%和 2.34%，但上证综指回落 1.3%。万得微盘股 指数 9 月第三周涨 1.8%。9 月第三周南向资金净流入 337.26 亿元。2、固 收：央行上周整体净投放资金 11923 亿元（含国库现金）。9 月第三周流 动性略显紧张，DR007 一度突破至 1.55%以上，9 月 18 日最高上探至 1.56% 附近。3、大宗商品：9 月第二周 ...

· 创业板指实现翻倍，把2021年以来的"熊市阴影"一扫而空； · 科创50暴涨126%，硬科技成为锋利主线； 2024年9月24日，A股市场在政策利好的强力推动下，当日上证指数暴涨4.15%，创业板指飙升5.54%， 两市成交突破1.1万亿元，一轮被记入A股史册的"924"行情就此点火。 一年之后，当日历再次翻到9月24日，大盘用一组"硬核"数据为这段行情盖上了验收章： · 上证指数从2770点起步，最高3899点，区间涨幅39.0%，创2015年以来最大年度升幅； · 深证成指上涨65%，重新站上13000点； · 北证50一骑绝尘，近一年涨幅超160%，为"小巨人"写下注脚。 行情爆发： 政策驱动下的估值修复 "924行情"的启动堪称迅猛。2024年9月24日，国新办举行新闻发布会，央行、金融监管总局、证监会联 合宣布一系列重磅金融政策，涵盖总量宽松、房地产支持、资本市场提振、科创投资鼓励及小微企业扶 持等多个领域。两天后，中央政治局会议进一步定调，明确提出"努力提振资本市场，大力引导中长期 资金入市"。政策暖风频吹，投资者大幅提振，A股市场迎来显著估值修复。 风浪越大鱼越贵，波动越大赚越多？ 七禾网免 ...

Core Insights - The fourth (2025) Oil and Petrochemical Industry Exhibition and Yipai Industrial Products Exhibition opened on September 24 in Nanjing, showcasing over 500 leading enterprises and highlighting the latest domestic technologies in the oil and petrochemical sector [1][3] - The exhibition aims to facilitate deep communication and cooperation within the industry, promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development of oil and petrochemical equipment, which is crucial for national energy security and sustainable development [3] Group 1: Exhibition Overview - The exhibition features eight core areas: heavy equipment, energy storage, new energy, new materials, intelligence and automation, fluid control, comprehensive services, and smart logistics, covering the entire oil and petrochemical industry chain [5] - Significant products displayed include China National Petroleum Corporation's F-2800QHL ultra-deep well high-power five-cylinder drilling pump and China National Offshore Oil Corporation's first mobile thermal injection platform [5] Group 2: AI Applications - The exhibition showcases breakthroughs in AI applications, such as a molecular language pre-training model developed by Beijing Chemical Research Institute and a domestic first explosion-proof intelligent sample delivery robot by Petrochemical Yingke [7] - Huawei presented smart chemical solutions for process optimization and preventive maintenance, while Zhongkong Technology introduced the first time series large model TPT2 for high-precision simulation and cross-condition prediction [7] Group 3: Industry Discussions - The exhibition will run until September 26 and includes nearly 30 high-quality professional meetings focusing on topics like manufacturing brand internationalization, recycling, and collaborative innovation in the valve industry [8] - Co-hosted by the China Petroleum and Petrochemical Equipment Industry Association and Yipai E-commerce Co., the exhibition has successfully contributed to the innovation of oil and petrochemical technology and the cultivation of new productive forces [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth for various petrochemical products exceeding 10% per year, leading to intensified competition and declining operating rates/profitability, yet major petrochemical products are still experiencing rapid apparent consumption growth during this phase [1][11][13] - The export value growth remains stable, but the physical volume has significantly increased, with various sub-sectors showing a price-volume trade-off, indicating a price decline of 2% to 7% annually from 2023 to 2025 [2][15][16] - Domestic demand is recovering moderately, with structural highlights in emerging industries and consumption markets, particularly driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicles and wind power generation, which significantly boosts the demand for various chemical new materials [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Capacity Expansion and Consumption - From 2019 to 2025E, the average capacity growth for multiple petrochemical products is projected to exceed 10% per year, with specific products like ethylene, PP, and PX seeing even higher growth rates [11][12] - Despite the rapid capacity expansion leading to increased competition and declining profitability, the apparent consumption of major petrochemical products is still growing at a high rate, with annualized growth rates for ethylene, propylene, and butadiene reaching 10.4%, 8.8%, and 7.9% respectively from 2020 to 2024 [13][19] 2. Export Dynamics - The export of chemical products is experiencing a significant expansion, with the CAGR for chemical industrial products reaching 8.9% from 2020 to 2024, and specific petrochemical products like styrene, PP, and PTA seeing export volume growth rates above 40% [22][26] - The shift in export focus towards emerging markets, with ASEAN and Africa showing notable growth in demand for chemical products, is contributing to this trend [25][26] 3. Domestic Demand and Structural Highlights - The development of new energy vehicles and renewable energy sectors is driving substantial demand for new chemical materials, while traditional plastics are also benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [4][26] - The overall domestic consumption is recovering, and the factors driving the growth of chemical product demand and exports are expected to remain strong in the medium to long term [4][26]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant performance growth, attributed to various strategic initiatives and market adaptations, particularly in traditional and new energy sectors [3]. Performance Growth Analysis - The company reported its highest profit in nearly a decade for 2024, with strong performance continuing into the first half of 2025. This growth is driven by several factors: - Optimization of traditional business through precise oil procurement and improved market share in gasoline and diesel, with increases of 0.46 and 0.93 percentage points respectively in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Transition to new energy and digital upgrades, including the operation of two LNG refueling stations and advancements in smart microgrid technology [3]. - Risk management strategies that led to zero risk incidents in 2024 and continued strict controls in 2025 [3]. - Integration of customer resources and innovative business models, including the establishment of a strategic customer department and the "Taishan +" strategy [3]. - Reforms and incentive mechanisms focusing on performance and efficiency in the workforce [3]. Business Planning and Development Trends - The company is focusing on non-oil business development aligned with Sinopec's "Easy Joy" brand, enhancing service models and exploring new profit growth points in automotive services and cultural tourism [4]. - The impact of rising penetration of new energy vehicles on traditional business is acknowledged, with a strategic shift towards becoming a comprehensive energy service provider [4]. - The company is responding to supply-side contraction in the petrochemical industry by leveraging its supply chain and brand advantages to stabilize traditional business, which will support its transition to new energy and non-oil sectors [4]. - Plans for high-quality development include consolidating traditional operations while accelerating the expansion of LNG refueling networks and charging stations [4]. - The company is addressing market disruptions caused by low-priced non-compliant oil through enhanced service and product quality [4]. - The implementation of the "Regulations on the Management of Refined Oil Circulation" is expected to standardize market operations, aligning with the company's compliance goals [4]. - Progress in clean energy transition includes the establishment of integrated charging and photovoltaic service systems, with 423 charging guns operational as of June 30, 2025 [4]. Share Buyback Progress - As of August 31, 2025, the company has not yet implemented its share buyback plan, with updates disclosed on September 3, 2025 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical industry index, with a notable increase of approximately 0.55%, driven by stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials reaching the daily limit [1] - The third China Petroleum and Petrochemical Carbon Neutral Technology Exchange Conference released the "White Paper on Low-Carbon Development in the Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry," indicating a clearer low-carbon transformation path under the "dual carbon" goals, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies for low energy consumption and low-cost carbon neutrality [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the ongoing focus on "anti-involution" at the policy level is expected to stabilize the profit bottom line in industries previously affected by supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, leading to an optimized competitive landscape for high-quality development in the long term [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of three sectors: refining and trading (27.12%), chemical products (23.87%), and agricultural chemical products (19.75%), all of which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed upward movement on September 24, with the National Index of Free Cash Flow experiencing a slight decline of approximately 0.2% after opening lower [1] - Notable stocks included Hisense Visual, which hit the daily limit, and others like Taiji Industry, Anfu Technology, Shanghai Electric, and Yaxiang Integration, which saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) recorded a trading volume surpassing 250 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities suggests that in the era of a stock economy, companies are shifting focus from scale to profitability and cash flow, with long-term excellent free cash flow potentially translating into shareholder returns [1] - The strategy for constructing a high free cash flow return portfolio emphasizes "high free cash flow returns" combined with "low investment and high profit distribution to shareholders," which tends to perform better in declining or volatile markets [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) targets industry leaders with abundant free cash flow, covering sectors such as home appliances, automotive, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and petrochemicals, effectively mitigating risks associated with single industry fluctuations [1] - The fund management annual fee is set at 0.15%, and the custody annual fee at 0.05%, both representing the lowest fee levels in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise of A-shares, particularly in the petrochemical sector, with the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index increasing by approximately 0.8% [1] - Key stocks in the petrochemical sector include Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit, and Blue Sky Technology, which rose over 5%, along with other notable performers such as Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yaqi International [1] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities anticipates an improvement in the chemical upstream sector driven by policy support, particularly for leading companies in midstream industries closely tied to domestic demand, including polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical sectors [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.65% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.3% of the index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Sinopec, Salt Lake Industry, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Juhua Co., Cangge Mining, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 55.63% of the index [1]