Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility is driven by intense corrections in speculation, raising questions about whether the current supply-side policy-driven rally has ended or is merely a "backward catch" opportunity [3][8]. Policy Analysis - The government has emphasized the need to combat deflation through supply-side policies, such as halting the addition of excess capacity and promoting domestic consumption. The scope of supply rationalization measures has expanded to include metals, petrochemicals, and industries like lithium and coal, which have reported supply disruptions [3][9]. - Historical responses to deflation have varied, with the current situation being unique due to the predominance of advanced capacity and the fragmented industrial landscape, alongside high government debt limiting fiscal space [3][9][10]. Commodity-Specific Insights - Lithium prices have rebounded but remain below marginal cash costs of $11,500/ton, with approximately 45% of global capacity unable to cover cash costs at a price of $9,000/ton. This suggests limited downside potential for prices [4][13]. - Recent compliance checks in the lithium sector may lead to short-term supply disruptions, with around 20,000 tons of lithium capacity facing compliance risks, potentially resulting in significant inventory depletion and price rebounds [14]. - In the coal sector, production inspections are focused on preventing overproduction, with expectations of moderate impacts. However, recent price declines may limit further downside [5][15]. Agricultural Sector Developments - The hog farming industry is actively responding to regulatory controls by reducing breeding sow inventories and adjusting market weights, which may support near-term price stability and long-term valuation increases [6][16]. Market Trends and Expectations - The bond market reflects expectations of prolonged deflation, with government policies aimed at supply-side constraints potentially boosting industrial prices and improving upstream profits. This may reduce the urgency for monetary easing [6][17]. - The recent surge in government infrastructure investment, such as the $1.2 trillion Tibet dam project, has also contributed to supply concerns and influenced market dynamics [6][17].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002988 | 豪美新材 | 46.52 | -2.23% | 6.98万 | 3.22 Z | | 605208 | 永成泰 | 12.77 | -2.22% | 10.12万 | 1.29亿 | | 600490 | 鹏欣资源 | 4.41 | -2.00% | 50.49万 | 2.23亿 | | 600768 | 宁波富邦 | 12.47 | -1.89% | 6.05万 | 7563.97万 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 11.72 | -1.84% | 35.51万 | 4.14 Z | | 600615 | 丰华股份 | 12.73 | -1.70% | 7.44万 | 9372.73万 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 14.40 | -1.64% | 14.67万 | 2.12亿 | | 601020 | 华钰矿业 | 20.68 | -1.43% | 32.32万 | 6.69亿 | | 002578 | 闽发 ...

Group 1 - Companies in Taiwan are facing increasing pressure due to rising exchange rates, order fluctuations, and tariff issues, leading to labor costs being passed down to frontline workers [1] - A specific company in Taichung, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff wars, has shifted from aiming for an IPO to being acquired due to the adverse impacts of currency appreciation [1] - The Taiwanese government is preparing a budget of NT$93 billion to support industries and stabilize the job market amid the tariff impacts on small and medium-sized enterprises [3] Group 2 - As of mid-July, 179 companies in Taiwan have implemented reduced work hours or unpaid leave, affecting 3,196 workers, marking a six-month high [2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has led to 5% of surveyed companies reporting layoffs, while 25% have paused hiring plans [2] - The consumer confidence index in Taiwan has slightly increased to 64.38 points, ending a nine-month decline, although the overall economic outlook remains cautious [3][4]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, Guangxi achieved significant results in attracting investment, with over 1,500 new signed projects and a total investment exceeding 490 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.6% and completing 60% of the annual target [1] - The manufacturing sector accounted for 78% of the total investment, indicating a strong focus on industrial development [1] - The completed investment from landed projects reached over 180 billion yuan, marking an 18.1% year-on-year growth and fulfilling 54% of the annual goal [1] Group 2 - The local government has implemented a series of policies to enhance investment attraction, including the issuance of the "2025 Guangxi Major District Investment Promotion Implementation Plan" and the "Management Measures for Cross-Regional Industrial Cooperation Investment Promotion" [2] - The leadership has actively engaged with key enterprises in sectors such as artificial intelligence and critical metals, conducting extensive research to improve investment attraction efforts [2] - A total of 94 new "Artificial Intelligence +" projects were signed in the first half of the year, with a total investment exceeding 48 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - Innovative investment attraction methods have been adopted, focusing on both regional and industrial chain investments, particularly in low-altitude economy, biomedicine, and new metal materials [3] - The Guangxi Investment Promotion Center organized approximately 50 investment promotion events, resulting in the signing of 18 projects, including a green aviation fuel project worth about 8 billion yuan [3] - Regular assessments and meetings are held to monitor investment attraction progress, ensuring effective implementation of targeted measures to enhance investment efficiency [3]

Group 1: Industrial Products Market - The domestic bulk commodity market shows a clear divergence, with industrial products rising across the board while agricultural products perform weakly [1] - The black and chemical sectors are the main drivers of the market's rise, with coking coal and polysilicon seeing particularly significant gains [1] - Coking coal has emerged as the standout performer, with a weekly increase of over 30%, driven by favorable macro policies and strong market sentiment [1] Group 2: Metal Sector Performance - The metal sector has seen a collective surge, with polysilicon leading the charge, achieving a weekly increase of over 21% and reaching a historical high [1] - Positive industry policies aimed at structural adjustment and eliminating outdated capacity have bolstered market confidence [1] - Other metals like alumina and lithium carbonate also performed well, each with weekly increases exceeding 10% [1] Group 3: Glass Market Dynamics - Glass prices have reached a five-month high, driven by favorable industry policies and rising coal prices impacting production costs [2] - The decline in glass inventory to a near six-month low and strong sales performance from some companies have contributed to the price increase [2] Group 4: Swine Market Trends - The domestic swine market is experiencing a notable divergence, with live pig prices slightly declining while futures prices have seen a peak and subsequent drop [2] - Despite fluctuations in supply and demand, stocks related to pig farming have risen, indicating a disconnect between current market conditions and long-term expectations [2]

智通财经APP获悉，截至7月22日，金属已成为2025年表现最佳的大宗商品子类，其中贵金属年内涨幅 达26.2%，工业金属上涨10.9%。然而，展望今年剩余时间，BMI研究机构对工业金属维持中性偏空的 展望，认为预期需求将走弱。 该机构近期维持2025年黄金均价3100美元/盎司的预测，并对未来几个月的金价持中性态度。 其认为，美联储在2025年末及2026年的降息声明，将是未来金价上涨的关键因素。 此外，BMI预计黄金将继续受益于各国央行增持行为，同时特朗普政府贸易政策变动的不确定性也将为 金价提供支撑底线。 中国市场金属消费在未来几个季度可能面临越来越大的阻力，这一方面来自美国关税政策的不确定性， 另一方面源于曾推动零售销售增长的消费品以旧换新政策效应逐渐减弱。 BMI分析师指出，从积极面来看，美元走弱可能在下半年为金属价格提供支撑。鉴于金属与美元存在反 向关联，这一因素将帮助金属价格维持稳定，遏制潜在跌幅。 至于贵金属，受避险需求、美元走弱以及美联储可能转向宽松政策带来的投资者信心改善等因素推动， 黄金价格目前在每盎司3342美元附近波动。 这主要源于中国市场消费疲软，以及2025年全球增长前景放缓，全 ...

1. 铜库存128475吨，增加3700吨。 2. 铝库存450825吨，增加2725吨。 3. 镍库存203922吨，减少534吨。 4. 锌库存115775吨，减少1125吨。 5. 铅库存266275吨，减少3050吨。 6. 锡库存1740吨，增加50吨。 LME有色金属库存日报 金十期货7月25日讯，伦敦金属交易所（LME）有色金属库存及变化如下： ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - On July 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term [2] - As of now, the central budget investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, supporting various fields such as modern industrial system and infrastructure [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and listing of power futures [2] - The EU has a 93 - billion - euro anti - tariff plan against the US, India aims to reach trade agreements with the US and has signed one with the UK [2] - Trump asked Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell to require FOMC to hold public meetings [3] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, glass, coke, ethylene glycol, and pulp [4] 3. Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.54%, precious metals 28.82%, oilseeds 12.19%, non - ferrous metals 2.90%, soft commodities 19.60%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.93%, energy 3.22%, chemicals 11.79%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [4] 4. Major Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.51% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures declined [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.17%, WTI crude oil 1.46%, and London spot gold fell 0.55% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.29%, and the CBOE volatility remained unchanged [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.78%, and the Nasdaq up 0.61% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia up over 2%, Facebook up more than 1%, Amazon up 0.36%, Tesla up 0.14%, Microsoft up 0.12%, while Apple fell 0.12% and Google dropped 0.58% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with Brain Rebirth up over 8%, Pony.ai up over 8%, Century Internet up over 8%, Luokung up over 7%, WeRide up over 5%, and GDS Holdings up over 4%. In contrast, Daqo New Energy fell over 5%, Melco Resorts dropped over 2%, NIO fell over 2%, and JinkoSolar declined over 1% [1] - European stock indices also closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.83%, France's CAC40 up 1.37%, and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.42% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.34% at $3397.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.09% at $39.52 per ounce [1] - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with the main U.S. oil contract up 0.17% at $65.42 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.10% at $68.66 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.15% to 97.20, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1520 against the dollar [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield up 4.03 basis points at 3.870%, the 3-year yield up 4.74 basis points at 3.824%, the 5-year yield up 4.22 basis points at 3.926%, the 10-year yield up 3.58 basis points at 4.380%, and the 30-year yield up 1.95 basis points at 4.938% [1] - European bond yields also rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 6.5 basis points at 4.632%, France's 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points at 3.298%, Germany's 10-year yield up 4.9 basis points at 2.636%, Italy's 10-year yield up 2.8 basis points at 3.459%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.5 basis points at 3.225% [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup's outlook suggests that if growth remains resilient and prices improve, the attractiveness of Chinese assets will increase [1] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the burden of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Dutch International highlights concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, which has contributed to the depreciation of the pound [3] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the deterioration of UK public finance data increases the likelihood of tax measures in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - Capital Economics argues that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to significantly revive U.S. manufacturing, as competition from low-wage countries remains a challenge [5] - Saxo Bank views the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a political show rather than a substantial economic catalyst [6] Group 3 - Citic Construction states that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a fast development phase, positively impacting the supply chain [7] - Citic Construction estimates that the average annual demand for coal-fired power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 60-80 GW, significantly higher than current market expectations [8] - Citic Securities continues to recommend leading companies in the thermal coal sector, anticipating a new round of opportunities due to recovering coal prices [9] Group 4 - Citic Securities predicts a 25-30% increase in cement demand in Tibet by 2026, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [10] - Citic Securities expects the banking sector to maintain an upward trend in Q3 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [11] - Huatai Securities reports that the domestic "anti-involution" measures are creating opportunities in the metals sector, with price recoveries in polysilicon and other materials [12]