苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-720 0 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若苯乙烯上涨还可以锁定 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-05 成品油开始累库，原油或将拖累化⼯进 ⼊偏弱格局 欧美的贸易和谈以及美伊之间的冲突对油价形成支撑，加拿大减产一 度造成WTI强于Brent。6月4日加拿大一运营商开始重启一处因大火关停的 原油生产，后期如果天气合适，加拿大约50万桶/日的原油生产将陆续重 启。EIA发布周报，成品油终于开始出现较大的累库，这表明炼厂开工提 升已经临近尾声，原油的直接需求增量可能临近尾声。 板块逻辑： 化工市场仍处于无主线阶段。焦煤在6月4日日盘大幅反弹7%，对甲醇及 其下游的聚烯烃又拉升作用，聚烯烃自身产业链变化较小，产量同比依旧 有10%以上的增速。聚酯链略显平淡，博弈较大，短纤开始减产减合约， 短纤的加工费立即得到部分修复。市场最大的担忧是后期需求会在抢出口 结束后出现失速，能化品延续震荡整理格局。 原油：美国成品大幅累库，供应压力仍在 LPG：需求仍弱势，PG反弹空间或有限 沥青：沥青期价高估等待回落 高硫燃油：高硫燃油期价如期回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：煤炭小幅提振，甲醇震荡 尿素：盘面偏弱，等待农需 ...

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2275.00 yuan, with a current price of 2270.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.39% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Yide Futures indicates that methanol is likely to continue facing high pressure, with increasing domestic production and a gradual restart of facilities in Iran, leading to a potential oversupply situation [1] - Chang'an Futures notes that the upward momentum for methanol is limited, as domestic production is expected to rise again in June, while downstream demand may weaken seasonally [2] - Donghai Futures suggests that while low inventory may support prices in the short term, increasing supply will lead to a rise in overall inventory, indicating a potential downward price trend in the medium to long term [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Yide Futures highlights that traditional downstream demand is limited, and the methanol market may continue to experience inventory accumulation, resulting in weak price fluctuations [1] - Chang'an Futures emphasizes that although there is some demand from the restart of the Jiangsu Sierbang MTO facility, the overall demand increase is unlikely to match the supply increase, leading to expectations of inventory accumulation [2] - Donghai Futures warns of the potential impact of "age limit" regulations on import schedules, suggesting a cautious approach to market observation [3]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price continued to rise overnight, with the Brent 08 contract up 0.75%. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short again after the peak season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in. The global oil inventory has increased by 2% since the second quarter, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and its cracking and EFS are expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [20]. - The asphalt industry started destocking in June, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. The BU crack spread may face short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is hard to reverse [21]. - The decline of 6 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas is small. The market has stabilized, and the downward space is limited. The spot surplus pressure has eased, and the futures may have a small basis contraction, but it will maintain a low - level shock [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals oscillated weakly overnight. The US economic data this week is in focus, especially the non - farm payrolls on Friday. Gold can be bought on dips with strong support at $3000 [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - Copper prices rose overnight. The White House's tariff policy may increase the expectation of copper tariffs. The LME copper inventory decreased to 143,800 tons, and the spot premium was $50. The KK mine in Congo may resume production at the end of the month. Consider shorting on rebounds or actively rolling over contracts [3]. - Aluminum prices rebounded slightly overnight. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 8,000 tons, and the demand is facing challenges. There is resistance at the key position of 20,300 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4]. - The alumina supply elasticity is large after the profit recovery. The domestic operating capacity increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons. It is advisable to short on rallies, and not to chase short when the discount is large [5]. - Zinc demand is in the off - season, and the fundamentals are changing from weak supply and demand to increasing supply and weak demand. Continue to short on rebounds [6]. - The cost support of lead is expected to gradually appear, and the lower support of SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, but the stainless - steel market is still in a situation of high supply and weak demand. The nickel iron inventory increased, and the pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories decreased. Short positions can be followed as the nickel price starts to fall [8]. - Tin prices rose overnight. The tin market still has the theme of tight concentrates, but the medium - term trend is downward. Hold short positions at high levels [9]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market inventory situation shows positive changes. The decline of Australian ore prices has slowed down, and the short - selling momentum has weakened [10]. - The industrial silicon price decreased with reduced positions. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to decline slowly [11]. - The polysilicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The short - term demand is weak, and the price is expected to change from shock to weak. Pay attention to the support at 34,200 yuan/ton [12]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices rebounded overnight. The demand for rebar is under pressure in the off - season, and the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have improved. The iron - water output is falling, and the negative feedback expectation still exists. The market is expected to rebound with fluctuations [13]. - The iron ore price rose overnight. The global supply has rebounded to a high level, and the domestic arrival volume has increased significantly. The demand is in the off - season, and the iron - water output is declining. The price is expected to be weakly volatile and may make up for the decline [14]. - The coke price rebounded. The iron - water output is falling slightly, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the price support may decline due to the cost reduction of coking coal [15]. - The coking coal price rebounded. The production is still at a high level, the spot auction market is weak, and the terminal inventory is decreasing slightly. The price still has a downward driving force [16]. - The silicon - manganese price rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory has decreased, but the supply is increasing slightly. The price is still weak [17]. - The silicon - iron price rebounded after a decline. The iron - water output is falling, the demand is fair, the supply is decreasing, and the price is still weak [18]. Group 5: Shipping - The shipping companies are raising the freight rates in late June. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" trend. There may be pulse - type market conditions, and there is still room for the 08 contract to rise further. Short - selling in the short term needs to be cautious [19]. Group 6: Chemicals - The urea market is in a weak - shock state. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, the production enterprises are accumulating inventory, and the impact of the new Indian tender is small [23]. - The methanol price continued to rebound with increased positions. The demand from coastal olefin plants has increased, but the port inventory is rising. The coal price is falling, and the cost is under pressure [24]. - The styrene price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation at the main ports in East China and weak downstream demand [25]. - The demand for polyethylene and polypropylene is in the off - season, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The price support from the demand side is limited [26]. - The PVC industry may face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price may oscillate at a low level. The caustic soda market is weakly operating, with high - level supply and inventory pressure [27]. - The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The supply - demand situation of upstream raw materials is gradually under pressure due to weakening demand [28]. - The ethylene glycol price remains weak, and the pressure will gradually appear after June [29]. - The short - fiber price oscillated and rebounded, and attention should be paid to the possibility of processing - margin repair. The bottle - chip market is in the peak - demand season, and the processing margin is low. Consider intervening in the processing - margin repair if production cuts are implemented [30]. Group 7: Building Materials - The glass industry's production capacity has increased slightly, the spot price has decreased, and the futures price is weakly operating. The inventory pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [31]. Group 8: Rubber - The natural rubber supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weakening, the synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [32]. Group 9: Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rebounded overnight. The inventory pressure is high, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure at a high level [33]. Group 10: Agricultural Products - The soybean and soybean meal prices lack upward drive. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the demand is relatively cautious. The market is expected to be short - term bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in June - August [34]. - The soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean and palm oil will face pressure from large arrivals, and the overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle [35]. - The Canadian canola futures price has upward drive, but the domestic canola market is affected by the Sino - Canadian trade relationship. It is advisable to reduce long positions and wait and see in the short term [36]. - The domestic soybean price is oscillating. The import supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be affected by weather in the medium term [37]. - The corn price is expected to be weakly volatile. The demand is weak, and the supply will increase with the listing of new wheat [38]. - The pig price is expected to decline in the short term due to increasing supply. In the medium term, the policy aims to stabilize the price, and attention should be paid to the actions of group enterprises [39]. - The egg price is expected to decline further due to increasing supply and the arrival of the off - season. Attention should be paid to the old - hen culling, weather, and feed prices [40]. - The cotton price is advisable to wait and see. The US cotton planting progress is behind, and the domestic cotton market has mixed conditions with some tight - inventory expectations but increasing off - season pressure [41]. - The sugar price is expected to oscillate. The Brazilian production data is mixed, and the domestic sugar market has reduced imports and light inventory pressure [42]. - The apple price is weakly operating. The market demand is decreasing, and the focus is on the new - season yield estimate. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - The wood price has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. The price rebound power is insufficient, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - The pulp price declined. The port inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the import volume may decline. It is advisable to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [45]. Group 11: Financial Futures - The stock index futures are expected to be in a high - level shock due to insufficient bullish drive. The uncertainty of geopolitical situation and US trade policy makes investors cautious. Pay attention to positive domestic policy signals [46]. - The treasury bond futures are oscillating. The market is in a narrow - range shock, and there may be long - position opportunities after over - decline. Pay attention to the entry timing of curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [47].

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 黄金：假期间俄乌风波再起 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 7 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 9 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 11 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：矿价节后快速回落，锂价走势仍偏弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：盘面底部弱势震荡 | 15 | | 多晶硅：仓单超预期大增，盘面具备下跌驱动 | 15 | | 铁矿石：需求预期羸弱，价格面临下行风险 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪拖累，弱势延续 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪拖累，弱势延续 | 18 | | 硅铁：底部持续下探，弱势震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：矿端继续承压，弱势震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 24 | | 原木：震荡偏弱 | 25 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The maintenance season for PX, PTA, and MEG is coming to an end, and demand negative feedback is gradually emerging [2][152]. - For PX, as of May 30, the Asian PX operating load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 82.1%, a month - on - month increase of 8.9 percentage points. There are still some device maintenance plans from June to July, especially concentrated in July, with tight supply - demand. The cost side is expected to continue to be under pressure, but the PX fundamentals are expected to be favorable, supporting price and PXN profit repair [152]. - For PTA, as of May 30, the PTA operating load was 76.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points. In June, more PTA devices will restart, and there are still maintenance plans for some devices. There is an expectation of increased supply. The polyester operating load may show a slight downward trend in June. With increased supply and stable demand, the TA price faces upward pressure [152]. - For MEG, as of May 29, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 59.83% (a month - on - month decrease of 8.6%), and the operating load of synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol was 57.19% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The cost of coal - based production has decreased, and the subsequent production is expected to increase. With increased supply and stable demand, the EG price may show a weak and volatile trend [152]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, PTA futures closing price increased by 266 yuan/ton (6.0%), MEG increased by 194 yuan/ton (4.7%), and PX increased by 406 yuan/ton (6.5%) [6]. - **PTA Basis and Spread**: The PTA basis and spread showed certain changes from April to May 2025, with the basis expanding significantly [15]. - **MEG Basis and Spread**: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also changed, and the basis expanded [12][15]. - **TA - EG Spread**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - EG spread increased by 72 yuan/ton (25.8%) [18]. - **TA - PX Processing Spread**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread remained unchanged [22]. - **Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread**: From April 30 to May 29, 2025, the price difference between domestic and overseas ethylene glycol changed, with the European - Chinese spread decreasing by 34.1% [25]. - **PX - Related Spreads**: The spreads between PX and crude oil, MX, and naphtha all changed from April to May 2025 [28]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance Implementation - **PX**: As of May 30, Asian and Chinese PX operating loads increased. There are still maintenance plans from June to August, especially in July, with a concentrated supply loss of 24.8 million tons [33][37][152]. - **PTA**: As of May 30, the PTA operating load decreased. In June, more devices will restart, and there are still some maintenance plans. New device production is expected to increase supply [35][152]. - **MEG**: As of May 29, the overall MEG operating load in mainland China decreased. There are maintenance and restart plans for domestic and overseas devices in different months [53][55][56][57]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In April 2025, China's PX imports decreased. The decrease was due to device maintenance, reduced downstream demand, and tariff concerns [63]. - **PTA**: In April 2025, China's PTA exports increased. The main export destinations include Turkey, Egypt, etc. [65]. - **MEG**: In April 2025, China's MEG imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The main import sources are Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc. [68]. - **Polyester Products**: In April 2025, China's polyester product exports reached a record high for the same period. Different polyester products showed different export trends [71]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Rising Downstream Raw Material Inventory - **PTA**: PTA polyester factories' raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [91]. - **MEG**: As of May 26, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 68.7 million tons, showing a de - stocking trend [94]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: In May 2025, compared with April, the polyester load decreased slightly, while the load of some related equipment increased. The inventory days and cash flow of some products changed [97]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand support is insufficient, and the inventory of polyester yarns has increased. The digestion of the weaving industry is weak, but the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City is expected to recover [98][101][103]. - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In April 2025, China's textile and garment exports increased year - on - year, with different trends for textiles and clothing [112]. - **Domestic Garment Retail**: In April 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing - related products increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [115]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - **PTA Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the PTA futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - **MEG Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the MEG futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - **PX Futures Position**: On May 30, 2025, the PX futures total position increased compared with April [126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, polyolefins showed a weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined, and the previous rebound in the market has digested the positive macro - factors at home and abroad. The decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost support for chemicals, but the slight rebound in international crude oil prices during the long - holiday is conducive to the stabilization of polyolefins [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6923, 6928, and 6960 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 62, and - 65, and declines of - 0.89%, - 0.89%, and - 0.93%. The trading volumes were 35322, 83, and 311232, and the open interests were 108143, 513, and 548604, with changes of 4615, 39, and 5320. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 5, - 32, and 37 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6802, 6817, and 6875 respectively, with price drops of - 62, - 55, and - 43, and declines of - 0.90%, - 0.80%, and - 0.62%. The trading volumes were 35928, 229, and 267599, and the open interests were 80929, 517, and 514977, with changes of 2828, 193, and - 6161. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 15, - 58, and 73 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2222 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 625 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6940 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 7200 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (June 2), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.52 per barrel, up $1.73 or 2.85% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.63 per barrel, up $1.85 or 2.95% from the previous trading day [2]

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Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The US court halted Trump's tariffs, causing EG to stop falling and rebound. The EG main contract closed at 4359 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton, +1.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4496 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton, +0.45% from the previous trading day) [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -27 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 147 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [1]. - Regarding inventory, according to CCF data on Mondays, MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 68.7 tons (down 5.6 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 7.6 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 9.2 tons [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, several large plants like Satellite still have maintenance plans, so the domestic EG load will remain low in the short term. The polyester load has declined recently but is still at a high level. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, leading to concentrated shipments of US orders. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and with the high polyester load, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol is significant. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts and macro - news changes [2]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Several large plants like Satellite have maintenance plans, the liquidity is tightened due to the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume provides short - term price support. For inter - period trading, a long - near and short - far spread strategy is recommended, and there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4359 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton, +1.11% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4496 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton, +0.45% from the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 151 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -27 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton), and that of coal - made syngas EG was 147 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton). Several large plants like Satellite still have maintenance plans, so the domestic EG load will remain low in the short term [1][2]. 3. International Spread - No specific data or analysis on international spread is provided in the content other than the mention of the figure "Figure 9: Ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. 4. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The polyester load has declined recently but is still at a high level. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, leading to concentrated shipments of US orders [2]. 5. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 68.7 tons (down 5.6 tons); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 57.7 tons (down 3.5 tons). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 7.6 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 9.2 tons. Before early June, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and with the high polyester load, the de - stocking of ethylene glycol is significant [1][2].