Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by high inflation and employment resilience, but in the medium - term, it is restricted by fiscal pressure and differences in the pace of interest rate cuts. The RMB fundamentals are still mild, but with narrowing interest rate spreads, stable settlement, and eased external expectations, the short - term exchange rate has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating that the market's expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread over different time periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [10]. - Based on CFTC data (as of July 8), the report presents the total positions and speculative net long positions of various currency pairs such as GBP/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD, and JPY/USD [14][17]. 2. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economic Situation - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of $311 billion on July 9, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $227.2 billion. Changing the Fed chairman is unlikely to significantly change the US monetary policy direction in the short term [23]. - The US economic downward risk is rising. Employment data is mixed, inflation is waiting for June CPI data, and the economy is showing marginal decline with falling fiscal expenditure, differentiated June economic sentiment, and pressured May retail sales [25]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations with the US among 17 key countries and regions, different situations are presented. For example, the UK - US agreement is in effect, the China - US is accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, the India - US is close to reaching a temporary trade agreement, etc. Trump extended the grace period for the equal - tariff to August 1, and the equal - tariff 2.0 phase has officially started, increasing global trade uncertainty [26]. The "Great Beautiful Act" in the US - The "Great Beautiful Act" became effective on July 4. It includes measures such as corporate and individual tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, medical assistance, and the supplementary nutrition assistance program, and an increase in the debt ceiling. However, it may lead to problems such as fiscal front - loading, deterioration of income and welfare distribution, and increased inflation [30][32]. China's Economic Situation - China's economic structure is differentiated. In June, the pressure increased, with the growth rates of investment sub - items declining and retail sales also under pressure. June's export data exceeded expectations, with financial data improving, and the RMB showing resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties [33][42]. Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition - The government is promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market, including requirements such as "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as steel, refining, and photovoltaic are the focus of rectification, with measures including curbing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of backward production capacity [44]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - In 2025, Sino - US tariff frictions have recurred. Although a suspension agreement was reached in May, there may be further fluctuations. The export structure has changed, with emerging markets supporting overall exports. The RMB has shown resilience and is less affected by tariff policies, and the marginal impact of trade uncertainty on the exchange rate will continue to weaken [53]. Overall Views - Currently, the economic expectation difference between China and the US is neutral, the interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong, while the RMB has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Risk Assessment - From the historical data from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years), the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [58].

Group 1: Current Inflation Status - The CPI in June 2025 increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly below the 2% inflation target[3] - The PPI in June 2025 dropped to -3.6%, marking the lowest level in the year and continuing a negative trend for 33 consecutive months[3][19] - Key factors contributing to low CPI include weak performance in food and energy prices, underestimating the impact of "de-real estate," and weak demand for durable goods and services[3][15][18] Group 2: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have a weaker impact on inflation compared to "capacity reduction" policies, as it focuses on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures[3][26] - CPI recovery to above 2% is anticipated to be slow due to ample supply and underappreciated real estate factors[3][29] - PPI is projected to turn positive by Q2 2026, with a forecasted year-end PPI of -1.3% in 2025[3][29] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market and insufficient policy effectiveness[3][29] - The relationship between PPI and commodity prices is crucial, with coal, rebar, lithium carbonate, copper, pork, and crude oil being significant influencers[3][20][22] - Recent commodity price trends show a decline in coal and rebar prices, while copper has shown signs of recovery[3][22]

Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" movement differs significantly from the supply-side reforms of 2016, focusing on a "time-for-space" strategy rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, with a pragmatic impact on the coal industry, indicating a fundamental turning point [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Strategy - The "anti-involution" concept is central to the new round of supply-side reforms, aiming to regulate low-price disorderly competition and encourage companies to enhance product quality, rather than simply eliminating outdated production capacity [1][3]. - The essence of the "anti-involution" approach is to stabilize price bottoms by alleviating chaotic competition, contrasting with the more drastic measures of 2016 that had significant economic impacts [1][3]. Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - The coal industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, highlighting the need for more mines to reduce production under the "anti-involution" policy [3]. - Supply-side data indicates a noticeable decline in national production from April to May, driven by economic factors leading to spontaneous production cuts, alongside a contraction in imports, suggesting a stable yet decreasing total supply for the year [3]. - Demand-side observations show a recovery in electricity consumption growth rates, with residential electricity usage increasing by 7% and 9.6% in April and May, respectively, indicating a potential turning point for overall electricity demand growth [3].

Group 1 - The current "anti-involution" movement differs from the previous supply-side reform, as it encompasses a broader range of industries beyond traditional manufacturing [1] - Recent policies and initiatives from the Central Financial Committee have elevated market awareness of "anti-involution," impacting sectors like steel, building materials, coal, and photovoltaics [1] - The cement sector has been in a downward cycle, with companies attempting production limits to self-rescue, but price increases have not been very effective [1] Group 2 - The cement industry has shown a narrowing decline in demand compared to last year, with some marginal improvements due to infrastructure investment [2] - Despite expectations for a traditional peak season, the cement industry did not meet demand in the second quarter, leading to calls for better implementation of production capacity policies [2] - The cement industry's high concentration allows major companies to coordinate production limits, making the implementation of "anti-involution" policies relatively easier [2] Group 3 - Investment opportunities in the cement sector can be explored through the Building Materials ETF (159749), which tracks the construction materials index [3] - The ETF includes stocks related to cement and glass, both of which are involved in the "anti-involution" movement [3]

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis is on the transformation and development of resource-based cities, highlighting the importance of balancing development and safety while promoting green and low-carbon initiatives in resource-depleted areas [1][8]. Group 1: Resource-Based City Transformation - Kunlun Town in Zibo City has successfully transformed a former coal mining area into a green low-carbon development model by introducing innovative projects such as greenhouse flower cultivation [2][3]. - Zibo City, particularly the Zichuan District, has been recognized for its efforts in transitioning from a resource-dependent economy, achieving excellent performance in national assessments for resource-depleted cities [3][4]. Group 2: Industrial Upgrading and Carbon Reduction - The Shandong Energy Donghua Technology Company is leading efforts in carbon reduction by replacing coal with hydrogen in cement production, resulting in a significant decrease in coal consumption and carbon emissions [5][6]. - The district has closed over 3,000 outdated production facilities since the 13th Five-Year Plan, reducing coal consumption by 307,000 tons, which is a 60.58% decrease [6]. Group 3: New Industry Development - The Zibo Economic Development Zone has established a new energy vehicle production base, significantly increasing production capacity and contributing to a 108.6% year-on-year growth in the new energy vehicle and equipment sector [7]. - New and high-tech industries now account for over 35% of the district's added value, with high-tech industry contributions rising from 31.29% in 2008 to 50% currently [7].

Group 1: Understanding Involution - Involution refers to a form of excessive competition that harms economic development, characterized by a lack of qualitative change and merely quantitative accumulation[4] - The term originated from agricultural production, highlighting the contradiction between population growth and limited land resources, leading to intensified competition for economic opportunities[10] - Involution manifests at various levels, including individual laborers facing high work pressure, intense competition among enterprises, and regional economic conflicts[11] Group 2: Government Actions Against Involution - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024 announced comprehensive measures to address "involution-style" competition, indicating a shift in policy focus[16] - The government aims to promote a unified national market, eliminate local protectionism, and address market fragmentation, which contributes to involution[17] - The Central Finance Committee's meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, marking a significant step in combating involution[22] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing anti-involution campaign is expected to transform and boost the Chinese economy over the long term, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics[23] - Industries where China holds a global monopoly, such as photovoltaics, are anticipated to experience stronger anti-involution measures compared to those facing international competition pressures[23] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in both emerging industries and traditional sectors with historical overcapacity issues, such as steel and cement[23] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The progress of anti-involution measures may face delays and challenges due to the need for changes in development concepts and institutional frameworks[24] - Local governments and enterprises may encounter difficulties and resistance in implementing the proposed measures effectively[24]

截至7月17日收盘，水泥概念下跌0.06%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，三和管桩、中材国际、 华新水泥等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有15只，涨幅居前的有西藏天路、尖峰集团、和泰机电等，分别上涨 7.46%、1.58%、1.28%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兵装重组概念 | 4.22 | 房屋检测 | -0.18 | | 同花顺果指数 | 3.37 | 黄金概念 | -0.13 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 3.34 | 举牌 | -0.12 | | PCB概念 | 3.07 | 水泥概念 | -0.06 | | AI手机 | 3.01 | 固废处理 | -0.03 | | AI PC | 3.01 | 新型城镇化 | -0.03 | | 重组蛋白 | 2.92 | ST板块 | -0.01 | | 海南自贸区 | 2.76 | 猪肉 | 0.00 | | 创新药 | 2.68 | 大豆 | 0.01 | | CRO概念 | 2.61 | 装配式建筑 | 0.05 | 资金面上看，今日 ...

Group 1 - The retail sales of passenger cars exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3% in June, although dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of market conditions [3][20][12] - The real estate market showed a widening decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.9% in transaction area across 30 major cities, indicating weak construction demand [12][16] - Steel prices continued to rebound due to expectations of supply contraction, while cement prices have significantly declined due to greater exposure to real estate demand [12][31] Group 2 - Manufacturing activity has seen a month-on-month increase, with notable improvements in the automotive and chemical sectors, reflecting a recovery in downstream demand [12][46] - The construction sector remains under pressure, with the central government emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition and phase out outdated capacities, which has led to a rebound in steel prices [13][31] - The logistics sector is experiencing growth in passenger transport, with domestic flight operations increasing by 1.6% week-on-week, and freight logistics also showing positive year-on-year growth [14][71] Group 3 - The coal price has continued to rise, with the Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reported at 632 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% due to higher electricity consumption during the summer [53][54] - Copper prices are under pressure following the announcement of a potential 50% import tariff on copper by the U.S., leading to a decline in both SHFE and LME copper prices [58][59] - The logistics sector's performance remains robust, with a 15.9% year-on-year increase in postal express collection volume, despite a slight week-on-week decline [71][66]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme has gained significant attention in the A-share market, with various sectors such as steel, photovoltaic, and building materials experiencing substantial growth due to policy-driven changes aimed at reducing disorderly competition [3][5][10]. Market Performance - As of July 17, A-shares opened lower but quickly turned positive, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, led by sectors like innovative drugs, PCB, consumer goods, and photovoltaics [1]. - In the past month, the photovoltaic equipment index increased by 15.55%, while the overall market saw nearly 3,000 stocks rise [7][9]. Sector Analysis - The "anti-involution" theme has led to significant gains in various sectors, with the steel, building materials, and electric equipment industries seeing increases of over 8% in the last 18 trading days [2]. - Key indices reflecting this trend include the circuit board index up by 3.74%, and the glass fiber index up by 20.21% [2][9]. Policy Impact - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to build a unified national market and regulate low-price competition, which is expected to guide the "anti-involution" policy across key industries [5][10]. - The current phase of the "anti-involution" market is characterized as a policy-driven expectation stage, with potential for further development depending on the implementation of policies and capacity clearance [3][18]. Investment Opportunities - Investment firms are increasingly focusing on sectors involved in the "anti-involution" theme, particularly those with historically low valuations and significant potential for recovery [12][13]. - Key sectors identified for investment include traditional industries like steel and cement, as well as emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [10][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the "anti-involution" market could evolve through three stages: initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, and finally, sustained high prices [3][18]. - The current market is still in the expectation phase, and future developments will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation and the recovery of corporate profits [18].

膀机运转率(%) 2025年 - 2023年 -2024年 -- 2022年 80 2021年 2020-年 - 2019年 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01月02月03月04月05月06月07月08月 09月10月11月12月 来源:风能,国金证券研究所 上证指数近日维持在3500点上方运行。在过往1-2周，关键点位本身受到了市场极大关注，但其主要意义仅在于心理层面。我们保持这样的观点：3500点 的突破并不能带来趋势的形成，未来仍需关注宏观经济修复。 国金证券认为，从盈利端来看，A股在反内卷、海外制造业走强带动我国出口，以及债务停止收缩的三大背景下，有望走出ROE见底回升的基本面行情， 煤炭、石油、钢铁等传统行业具有更大的修复空间。 基本面层面，考虑国内增长、通胀与流动性的情况。增长层面，一季度数据修复明显，近期呈现企稳迹象，二季度实际GDP同比增长5.2%，名义增长为 3.9%，与去年Q2持平。6月工业增加值累计同比、出口累计同比、社零累计同比分别为6.4%、5.9%、5.0%，较上个月分别上涨0.1个百分点、下跌0.1个百 分点，以及维持不变。广发证券认为，工业增加值维持高位可能和关 ...