Economic Indicators - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, indicating resilience despite external tariff impacts[9] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May reached 41,326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, surpassing the previous value of 5.1%[11] - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with real estate development investment declining by 10.7%[13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,420.566, with a weekly decline of 0.51%[2][31] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.16%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.45%[31] - Daily average trading volume decreased to 12,150.34 billion yuan, down by 1,566.44 billion yuan from the previous week[31] Investment Trends - Equipment investment is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by long-term special government bonds aimed at equipment upgrades[5] - The manufacturing sector's investment growth is slowing, with a notable decline in electric equipment and real estate sectors[13] - The financial sector showed strength with a 1.37% increase, while consumer sectors faced a decline of 3.61%[31] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a total of 9,603 billion yuan in reverse repos this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan[6][19] - The upcoming seasonal transitions and government bond financing are expected to impact liquidity, with a focus on the central bank's monetary policy actions[20] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include tighter monetary policy, unexpected economic recovery leading to rising bond yields, and deteriorating local fiscal conditions[35] - The market may continue to experience "high-low cuts," with a focus on dividend sectors and low-position technology stocks as rotation opportunities[34]

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rebound, with the financial and defense sectors leading the gains [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.34% [4] Financial Sector - The multi-financial, securities, and internet insurance sectors saw significant gains, with Dongfang Caifu (300059) up by 4.63% and achieving a trading volume of 12.245 billion yuan [1] - Hong Kong's brokerage sector experienced a surge, with Guotai Junan International rising by 68.55% after receiving approval to upgrade its securities trading license to include virtual asset trading services [3][4] Defense and Military Industry - The defense and military sectors, including military equipment and electronics, saw substantial increases [4] Earnings Reports - Recent earnings reports began to surface, with Tailin Micro announcing an expected revenue of approximately 503 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of about 37%, and a net profit of around 99 million yuan, representing a growth of approximately 267% [7][8] - Analysts noted that stocks with better-than-expected mid-year earnings forecasts have been leading the market in recent years [9] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector showed strength, with companies like Qianxun Technology and Yintu Network experiencing significant gains, and leading stock Guoxuan High-Tech rising over 7% [12] - Recent developments included Quantumscape's announcement of a successful integration of its membrane technology, leading to a stock price increase of over 30% [14] - The solid-state battery market is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan globally by 2030, with rapid growth expected in the domestic market by 2027 [15] AI Sector - The AI sector demonstrated active performance, with leading stocks in the PCB sector, such as Shenghong Technology, rising over 5% and reaching historical highs [17] - The entire computing power industry chain is expected to benefit from policy support, market demand growth, and technological innovation, making the outlook for this sector promising [17]

Group 1 - A total of 30 companies were investigated by institutions on June 24, with 17 companies specifically targeted by funds [1][2] - The most popular company among funds was Steady Medical, which had 37 participating funds, followed by Obsidian Technology with 20 funds and Tianshan Electronics with 10 funds [1][2] - The companies investigated belong to 12 different industries, with the electronics and computer sectors having the highest representation, each with 3 stocks [1] Group 2 - Among the companies investigated, 9 had a total market capitalization of less than 10 billion yuan, including Aoya Co., Ltd., Weili Transmission, and Pengyao Environmental Protection [1] - In terms of market performance, 11 stocks among the investigated companies saw an increase in the last 5 days, with Tianshan Electronics, Obsidian Technology, and Honghua Digital Science leading with gains of 25.51%, 14.21%, and 6.00% respectively [1][2] - Conversely, 6 stocks experienced declines, with Mankalon, Aoya Co., Ltd., and Steady Medical showing the largest drops of 10.37%, 8.56%, and 6.61% respectively [1][2] Group 3 - In terms of net capital inflow over the last 5 days, 7 stocks saw positive inflows, with Obsidian Technology attracting the most at 105 million yuan, followed by Haixia Co., Ltd. and Robotech with inflows of 27.48 million yuan and 14.63 million yuan respectively [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant decline in the number of shareholders for many companies listed on the ChiNext board, indicating a trend of shareholder concentration and potential market implications for these stocks [1][2][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - A total of 209 ChiNext stocks reported their latest shareholder numbers as of June 20, with 126 stocks experiencing a decline in shareholder count compared to June 10, and 11 of these stocks seeing a decrease of over 10% [1]. - The stock with the largest decline in shareholder count is Jieya Co., with a decrease of 22.08% to 8,867 shareholders, and a cumulative drop of 13.97% in stock price since the concentration began [1]. - Other notable declines include Boyuan Co. (20.64% decrease) and Qide New Materials (18.75% decrease) [1][2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Among the concentrated stocks, the average price increase since June 11 is 0.31%, with top performers including Haitai Technology (25.88% increase), Hengshuai Co. (20.28% increase), and Boshuo Technology (18.98% increase) [2]. - The industries with the most concentrated stocks include machinery, electrical equipment, and computers, with 18, 12, and 11 stocks respectively [2]. Group 3: Leverage and Funding - As of June 24, 33 concentrated stocks have attracted leveraged funds, with notable increases in financing balances for Zhongying Electronics (88.68%), Haitai Technology (69.45%), and Qide New Materials (63.07%) [2]. Group 4: Continuous Decline in Shareholder Numbers - Companies like Zhongjian Huaneng and Kema Technology have seen continuous declines in shareholder numbers for 15 and 10 periods respectively, with cumulative declines of 20.86% and 23.30% [2][3]. - The report indicates that 38 ChiNext stocks have shown a continuous decline in shareholder numbers for more than three periods, with some stocks experiencing declines for up to 15 periods [1].

Market Overview - The market experienced an overall increase in trading volume but showed a downward trend, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.215 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks [1] - The banking, telecommunications, and electronics sectors performed well, while beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, but several consumption data points, particularly in real estate and automotive sectors, are weakening [2] - New housing sales in major cities are significantly lower than the same period last year, with only Beijing showing stronger performance [2] - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, pose a risk of stagflation [2] - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include durable goods consumption, export growth, and potential policy responses [2] International Developments - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from a low of $55 to around $75 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, indicating a cautious approach amid inflation uncertainties [3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally, which could negatively impact risk assets [3] Market Expectations - The market shows resilience compared to the previous two years, despite existing pressures on the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming policy window in July may lead to market reactions based on new policy stimuli [4] - There is an expectation of a potential market rebound driven by policy support, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [4] Market Style - The narrowing of thematic trading suggests that large-cap stocks may offer better elasticity and value compared to small-cap stocks [5] - The market is expected to engage in policy trading in the first three weeks of July, with historical trends indicating that large-cap stocks may outperform [5] - Suggested sectors for attention include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend stocks, which may benefit from policy support [5]

【策略】中观数据与盈利预测指向哪些行业景气？——20250623 【固定收益】高频工业品价格底部反弹——基本面高频数据跟踪—— 20250623 ◼ 研究视点 【环保】监测门槛抬高，科创板专层赋能——20250623 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 24 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 中观数据与盈利预测指向哪些行业景气？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 作者 | 分析师 杨义韬 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522080002 | | | | | 邮箱：yangyitao@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 7.9% | 0.3% | 28.0% | | 银行 | 6.0% | 11.2% | 33.4% | | 石油石化 | 4.9% | 2.6% | -2.0% | | 传媒 | 4.6% | 0.2% | 42.6% | | 国防军工 | 3.5% | 0.8% | 25.9% | | 行业表现后五名 | | | | | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, closing at 3359.90 points[1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.16%, ending at 10005.03 points[1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.66%, closing at 2009.89 points[1] Sector Performance - The banking sector showed a gain of 2.63%, while the communication sector increased by 1.58%[3] - The beauty and personal care sector declined by 5.86%, and the textile and apparel sector fell by 5.12%[3] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector decreased by 4.35%[3] Margin Trading - The total margin trading balance reached 18124.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous week[15] - Margin trading balance accounted for 2.29% of the A-share market's circulating market value, an increase of 0.58%[15] - The total margin trading transaction volume was 5202.05 billion yuan, down by 11.73% from the previous week[16] Industry Trends - The top five industries with increased margin trading balances were pharmaceuticals (1.375 billion yuan), mining (0.405 billion yuan), and commercial trade (0.300 billion yuan)[22] - The top five industries with decreased margin trading balances included non-ferrous metals (-1.959 billion yuan) and electronics (-1.314 billion yuan)[22]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has seen adjustments in hot sectors, with cyclical commodities like coking coal, aluminum, and Brent crude oil performing well due to the Middle East crisis affecting global commodity supply [2] - The North China 50 index has adjusted, influenced by discussions around micro-cap stock trading congestion, with cautious investors taking action [2] - A weekly review of A-shares shows bank stocks leading in gains, while sectors like beauty care, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and social services have seen declines [2] Group 2: Middle East Risk - The Middle East crisis is currently limited to Iran, but concerns are growing about the potential for escalation following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [3] - Predictions suggest that if Iran expands its attacks and blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge to $120-130 per barrel, leading to high global inflation and reduced manufacturing profits [3] - Analysis indicates that U.S. actions may be politically motivated to alleviate internal pressures, with a focus on avoiding ground troop deployment [3] Group 3: China Asset Revaluation - The recent Lujiazui Forum indicated a policy tone favoring openness, which could release policy dividends for the revaluation of Chinese assets [5] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China has shown a decline, with actual foreign investment amounting to 358.19 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, down 13.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The structure of FDI shows positive trends in high-tech industries, with significant growth in sectors like e-commerce services and aerospace manufacturing [6] Group 4: Tax Revenue Insights - National public budget revenue for January to May 2025 was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue down 11.9% [7] - The probability of a real estate market resurgence is low, as indicated by declining property-related tax revenues [7] - Securities transaction stamp duty increased by 52.4% year-on-year, reflecting heightened market activity and the importance of the stock market in asset revaluation [8] Group 5: Non-Tax Revenue and Market Dynamics - Non-tax revenue grew by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a shift in focus from external factors to internal reforms and adjustments in interests [9] - The government is increasingly normalizing its behavior in revenue collection, which is crucial for market vitality and asset revaluation [9] Group 6: Long-Term Asset Revaluation - While external risk premiums suggest a foundation for asset revaluation in China, internal conditions still require improvement for a complete revaluation [10] - The restructuring of international order and adjustments in China's leading industries present ongoing investment opportunities [11]

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（6月16日至6月20日）A股市场出现回调，主要源于PMI、工业增长、社融等宏观表现 略不及预期，投资者对经济复苏节奏产生担忧，风险偏好降低。蓝筹股相对抗跌，上证 50 仅微跌 0.10%，而中证 500、中证 1000 及万得微盘指数相对跌幅则明显更大，科创 50 下跌 1.55%，或因部分 科技企业盈利兑现难度大，成长风格整体受挫。中证红利虽有红利支撑，但仍微幅下挫0.42%，显示市 场避险情绪全面升温。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均跌幅1.24%。板块方面，仅10%板块获得正收益，银行、通信、电子相对 表现良好，分别上涨2.63%、1.58%、0.95%，而医药生物、纺织服饰、美容护理则明显走弱，分别下跌 4.35%、5.12%、5.86%。 单位：% 基金发行： 上周合计发行46只，其中股票型基金发行20只，混合型基金发行14只，债券型基金发行9 只，QDII型基金发行1只，FOF型基金发行2只，总发行份额459.23亿份。 基金表现 ：上周万得全基指数下跌 0.70% 。其中，万得普通股票型基金指数下跌 1.54% ，万得偏股混 合型基金指数下跌 1.65% ， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, rating adjustments for convertible bonds may be relatively optimistic. With the expectation of economic recovery and policy support such as expanding domestic demand and debt resolution, credit risks are relatively controllable, but industry differentiation and tail risks still need attention [12]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but remains at a relatively low level in the long - term. The risk premium shows good allocation value. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has certain support. The overall valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and the valuation center is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future [15]. - Attention should be paid to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, high - dividend sectors under the Chinese - characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [15]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. Recent Rating Adjustments - As of Friday, 237 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual follow - up rating announcements, accounting for 50.3% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Among the updated - rating convertible bonds, 14 have had their ratings downgraded, and the adjustment ratio of medium - and high - rated convertible bonds is significantly lower than in previous years [10]. - Rating downgrades have a short - term negative impact on convertible bonds, but the overall market impact may be relatively controllable. The prices of convertible bonds with high institutional holdings and rating downgrades have relatively large adjustments, while those with low institutional holdings and relatively low original ratings are less affected [10]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market showed daily fluctuations and a weekly overall correction. The A - share market's three major indexes rose on Monday, adjusted on Tuesday, rose slightly on Wednesday, fell on Thursday, and adjusted with volume contraction on Friday [14]. - The A - share market valuation has recovered but is still at a relatively low level. The export order rebound has led to a narrow improvement in the May PMI. The convertible bond supply is shrinking, and the demand side has support. The convertible bond valuation is expected to fluctuate moderately in the future. Attention should be paid to different sectors [15]. 3.2. Convertible Bond Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1. Equity Market Declined, and Pro - cyclical Sectors such as Banks Strengthened - This week, the main equity market indexes declined. Among them, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.07%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth [18]. - Three Shenwan industry indexes rose, and 28 declined. The banking, communication, and electronics industries rose, with increases of 2.63%, 1.58%, and 0.95% respectively [21]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Declined, and the 100 - yuan Premium Rate Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.17%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.11%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.59%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased [23]. - Five convertible bond industries rose, and 24 declined. The non - bank finance, public utilities, and banking industries led the gains, while the media, beauty care, and social services industries led the losses [27]. - Most individual convertible bonds declined. The top five weekly gainers were Jingrui Convertible Bond, Liande Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond. The top five weekly losers were Jinling Convertible Bond, Zhite Convertible Bond, Jindan Convertible Bond, Dongshi Convertible Bond, and Zhongchong Zhuan 2 Convertible Bond [29]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate rose. The weighted conversion premium rate of the whole market was 48.62%, up 1.02 pct from last weekend. The 100 - yuan parity premium rate was 18.89%, down 1.74 pct from last weekend [34]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of various types of convertible bonds declined. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 80 - 90 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan declined, while most others increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other ratings decreased. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale segments decreased [42]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was below the 35th percentile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds was below the 50th percentile [42]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, AAA - rated convertible bonds rose, while those of other ratings declined. The AAA convertible bonds rose 0.43%, and AA + convertible bonds fell 0.12% [55]. - This week, large - cap convertible bonds rose, while those of other scales declined. The small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.75%, and the medium - small - cap convertible bonds fell 0.46% [57]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Clause Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - One new convertible bond was listed this week (Hengshuai Convertible Bond), and five issued but unlisted convertible bonds are pending (Luwei Convertible Bond, Dianhua Convertible Bond, Anke Convertible Bond, Xizhen Convertible Bond, and Huachen Convertible Bond). One primary approval was obtained this week, and Maiwei Co., Ltd. (1.967 billion yuan) passed the shareholders' meeting [62]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 20, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 92, with a total scale of 146.099 billion yuan [63]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 15 announced no downward revisions, 5 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually had a downward revision [66][67]. - Six convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemptions, 5 announced no early redemptions, and 1 announced an early redemption. As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds were still in the put - option declaration period, and 35 were in the company's capital - reduction settlement declaration period [71][73].