锌

Search documents
国投期货有色金属
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 11:07
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].
新能源及有色金属日报:盘面价格走强,现货升水快速回落-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:36
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 盘面价格走强,现货升水快速回落 重要数据 现货方面:LME锌现货升水为-27.34 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨190元/吨至22840元/吨,SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌85元/吨至245元/吨,SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨260元/吨至22890 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至295元/吨,SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨220元 /吨至22840元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌55元/吨至245元/吨。 期货方面:2025-05-14沪锌主力合约开于22265元/吨,收于22710元/吨,较前一交易日上涨380元/吨,全天交易日 成交219108手,较前一交易日增加48548手,全天交易日持仓104941手,较前一交易日减少7094手,日内价格震荡, 最高点达到22780元/吨,最低点达到22160元/吨。 库存方面:截至2025-05-12,SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.55万吨,较上周同期增加0.14万吨。截止2025-05-14,LME 锌库存为167050吨,较上一交易日减 ...
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250515
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 03:40
有色金属日报 2025-5-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号:F3036210 交易咨询号:Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号:F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号:F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号:F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 铜 从业资格号:F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号:F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 国内权益市场走强,商品氛围偏暖,贵金属价格走弱,铜价冲高回落,昨日伦铜收跌 0.34%至 9592 美 元/吨,沪铜主力合约收至 78650 元/吨。产业层面,昨日 LME 库存减少 4075 至 185575 吨,注销仓 单比例下滑至 41.8%,Cash/3M 升水 15.8 美元/吨。国内方面,昨日上期所 ...
沪锌期货早报-20250515
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 02:32
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒4月16日消息, 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月,全球锌板产量为225.30万吨,消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨;偏空。 2、基差:现货22900,基差+190;偏多。 3、库存:5月14日LME锌库存较上日减少900吨至167050吨,5月14日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1600吨;偏多。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势,收20日均 ...
河南豫光金铅股份有限公司 关于召开2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会的公告
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao - Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-05-14 22:54
登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示: ●会议召开时间:2025年5月26日(星期一)早上9:30-11:30 ●会议召开方式:自行录制+网络文字互动问答 ●会议召开地点:上海证券交易所上证路演中心 (http://roadshow.sseinfo.com) ●投资者可于2025年5月23日16:00前将需要了解和关注的问题通过电子邮件的形式发送至公司邮箱 yuguang@yggf.com.cn,或在2025年5月19日至2025年5月23日16:00前登录上证路演中心网站首页点 击"预征集问答"栏目选中本次活动进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 河南豫光金铅股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")已于2025年4月26日、4月30日分别披露了公司2024年年 度报告、2025年第一季度报告,为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司2024年度及2025年第一季度经 营成果、财务状况及发展理念等,公司拟召开2024年度暨2025年第一季 ...
日度策略参考-20250514
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 12:06
| | | 日度策略参考 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品神 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 周济 | 4月以来,在国家政策、中央汇金资金的托底作用下,股指已收复 4月2日关税冲击形成的技术缺口,当前追涨风险收益比不高。持 | | | | | 有的多头可考虑冲高减仓。 | | | 国债 | 黑汤 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | | | 空间。 | | | 真金 | 農汤 | 短期市场风险偏好回暖,金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚 未改变。 | | | | | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | | | 日银 | 震荡 | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | | | 同G座 | 農汤 | 中美贸易谈判结果超预期,短期市场情绪有所好转,但铜价已明 | | | | | 显回升,价格或震荡运行。 | | | | 着% | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 铝价延续反弹走势。 | | | 氧化铝 | 看头 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化 ...
广发期货《有色》日报-20250514
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 11:10
| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 星期三 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 78155 | 78275 | -120.00 | -0.15% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜开贴水 | -10 | -15 | +5.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78215 | 78340 | -125.00 | -0.16% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 45 | 85 | -40.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78095 | 78215 | -120.00 | -0.15% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -70 | -75 | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 1265 | 1430 | -165.00 ...
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250514
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 09:14
. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可,任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:进口锌锭使得国内现货市场承压-20250514
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 03:34
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-14 进口锌锭使得国内现货市场承压 重要数据 现货方面:LME锌现货升水为-27.37 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨至22650元/吨,SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌100元/吨至330元/吨,SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌90元/吨至22630 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌120元/吨至310元/吨,SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元 /吨至22620元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌100元/吨至300元/吨。 期货方面:2025-05-13沪锌主力合约开于22530元/吨,收于22325元/吨,较前一交易日持平,全天交易日成交170560 手,较前一交易日减少59350手,全天交易日持仓112035手,较前一交易日减少5995手,日内价格震荡,最高点达 到22655元/吨,最低点达到22135元/吨。 库存方面:截至2025-05-12,SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.55万吨,较上周同期增加0.14万吨。截止2025-05-13,LME 锌库存为167950吨,较上一交易日减少1900吨。 ...
镍不锈钢早报:纯镍产量同比高增,过剩压力依旧存在-20250514
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:44
期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期: 2025 年 5 月 14 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息: ummary]【安泰科:2025 年 4 月中国镍产品产量通报】据统计,2025 年 4 月中国镍板产量 33120 吨,环比下降 2.1%,同比增加 6.9%。1-4 月中 国镍板产量 13 万吨,同比增加 13.02%。本月华中某镍企产量因原料供应 迟滞产量小幅下降,西北大型镍企产量环比提升。随着印尼某 MHP 项目复 产,原料供应有望逐渐增加,预计 5 月中国产量同环比增长。2025 年 4 月 中国硫酸镍产量 2.96 万吨(不含硫酸镍生产镍板用量约 1.2 万吨),环比 下降 12.9%,同比下降 17.8%。其中原生物料产量约 2.8 万吨,环比下降 11.4%,同比下降 13.2%。1-4 月中国硫酸镍产量 12.7 万吨,同比下降 1.63%。 (安泰科) 供应:从盘面表现来看,基本已经可以认为菲律宾禁矿传言被证伪,盘面 快速回吐全部涨幅,收盘价基本与前一日起涨点持平。回到基本面,菲律 宾走出雨季,发运量上升季的节性因素不易发生变化,矿端 ...