农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月12日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力05合约午后收于7986（日变动-8或-0.10% ）。1月USDA供需报告影响利空，CBOT大豆下跌，日内棕榈油价 格上涨抑制豆油价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the current port inventory is high and the overall supply is sufficient, the market is still worried about the soybean arrival in the first quarter. Coupled with the recent general rise in commodities, the soybean meal price has been running strongly recently. However, the supply pressure brought by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the future is the most important influencing factor, and attention should be paid to the growth of Brazilian soybeans and USDA reports [3] - For the corn market, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and are currently mainly purchasing on demand, but they are still lower than the historical average. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, there will still be certain stocking needs in the future. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2761 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2314 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil exported 646,000 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 108,000 tons, a 121% increase from the daily average in January last year. As of last Thursday, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.6%, exceeding 0.3% in the same period last year. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 8, 2026, was 1.53 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 800,000 - 1.275 million tons. The US soybean inventory in the quarter ending December 1, 2025, was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] Market Analysis - The current high port inventory and sufficient supply, along with concerns about the first - quarter soybean arrival and the general rise in commodities, have led to a recent strong performance in soybean meal prices. However, the future supply pressure from the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans is the key factor [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2561 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Market Information: Brazil exported 1.674 million tons of corn in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 279,000 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average in January last year. The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending January 8, 2026, was 1.49 million tons, within the market expectation of 900,000 - 1.575 million tons. The US corn inventory in the quarter ending December 1, 2025, was 13.282 billion bushels, a 10% increase from the same period in 2024 [4] Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and are currently purchasing on demand, but they are still lower than the historical average. With the approaching Spring Festival, there will be stocking needs, and attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upward due to factors such as international crude oil price increases, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and the inflow of hot money. Palm oil is expected to continue to strengthen, but attention should be paid to the postponed implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy. Vegetable oil long positions should be held. [1][2] - Against the backdrop of abundant global soybean supply, double - meal trading should adopt an intraday approach, and a mid - line bottom - oscillation mindset should be maintained. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Section 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 13, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, international crude oil prices rose, and the biodiesel concept resurfaced. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. Among them, the closing price of the main soybean oil contract Y2605 was 7986 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day; the closing price of the main palm oil contract P2605 was 8778 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 was 9017 yuan/ton, up 0.41% day - on - day. [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. [1] - Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending regulation depends on the price difference between crude oil and crude palm oil. It is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with a monthly volume of 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil. [1] - In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; exports were 1.3165 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; inventory was 3.05 million tons, within the market's expected range. [1] - From January 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase compared to the same period in December. Exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons. [1] - Indonesia's total biodiesel allocation in 2026 is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. [1] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76%. [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the tense situation between the US and Iran has led to supply concerns and geopolitical conflicts, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise, which has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Domestically, the fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed. During the Spring Festival stocking period, soybean oil inventory has decreased, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The full sale of domestic old soybean auctions indicates sufficient future supply, while the customs' tightened soybean clearance policy continues. For palm oil, the expected negative overseas reports have been released, and the market is more influenced by the rise in international crude oil prices and the biodiesel concept. For rapeseed oil, the strong prices of soybean and palm oil have driven up its price. [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [2] - Arbitrage trading: Exit the previously focused strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference. [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Section 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 13, the US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report was bearish, causing US soybeans to close lower and dragging down the domestic double - meal market to oscillate weakly. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract M2605 was 2761 yuan/ton, down 1.04% day - on - day; the closing price of the main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 was 2314 yuan/ton, down 0.69% day - on - day. [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3630 - 3790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3809.55 yuan/ton. [2] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, rising crushing volume, decreased exports, and increased ending inventory. Global soybean production is expected to reach 425.7 million tons. [2][3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons. [3] - As of January 9, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year. [3] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth of sown soybeans was in good condition. [3] - Brazil's soybean exports in December were 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase compared to the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 1.12 billion tons. [3] - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons compared to the previous week. [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, under the pressure of abundant global soybean supply, US soybeans are under pressure and testing the support at 1000 US dollars. Domestically, the spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking intention has increased, driving up the price of finished feed. The USDA report's simultaneous increase in US soybean inventory and Brazilian production, along with the year - on - year increase in global rapeseed and rapeseed meal production, jointly suppress the market. [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Mid - line trading: Maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset and conduct intraday trading. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. [4] - Arbitrage trading: There are currently no arbitrage strategies. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index fluctuated significantly. Although there were short - term rebounds, the overall market closed down. The basis of each variety continued to rise, and the discount of stock index futures continued to narrow, indicating that futures investors are still optimistic about the future market. It is recommended to go long on IC and IM on dips, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage on IM/IC 2606 + short ETF, and use bull spreads for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the market capital continued to converge, which put pressure on the short - end. In the short term, although market sentiment has recovered, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and then wait and see. For cash bond holders, they can consider selling hedges. For arbitrage, it is recommended to try shorting the basis of the 30 - year active bond [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure increases, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to have a short - term bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to expect international sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and domestic sugar prices to oscillate within a range. Consider buying at the lower end and selling at the upper end of the range, and sell put options [27][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The US biodiesel sector is disturbed, and the price of US soybean oil has increased significantly. In the short term, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn report shows increased production, and the short - term price is weak. The spot price of corn is currently stable but may face pressure later. It is recommended to go long on the 03 US corn contract after it stabilizes, try short - selling the 03 corn contract, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts [35][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter increases, but the spot price continues to rise. It is recommended to have a short - selling view, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand has improved, and the egg price is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to expect the near - month contract to oscillate weakly, and consider going long on the far - month May contract on dips [42][45]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the apple price is firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage [46][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and the cotton price oscillates. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in the short term, and go long on Zhengzhou cotton on dips [50][52]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products start to accumulate inventory, and the steel price continues to oscillate. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates sharply, and it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [57][59]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and the iron ore price is considered bearish at high levels. It is recommended to short lightly at high levels [60][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to expect a short - term strengthening trend due to improved supply - demand and cost factors, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Inflation is moderate, and geopolitical conflicts drive the prices of gold and silver to new highs. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous high at the end of December and in silver based on the support near the previous high on the 7th of this month [70][73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The slowdown of CPI growth eases the macro - pressure on precious metals. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, and be cautious about going long on palladium before the result of the 232 investigation is announced [75][76][77]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations intensify, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [78][79]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between commodity sentiment and fundamentals expands price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It runs strongly with oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended for conservative investors to wait and see, and for aggressive investors to hold short positions with strict position control [89][91]. - **Lead**: Take partial profit on long positions and raise the stop - loss line. It is recommended to take partial profit on profitable long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [93][96]. - **Nickel**: It follows the correction of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to have a long - term long view after the correction stabilizes [97][98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long on dips after the correction stabilizes [99][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short on rallies. It is recommended to short on rallies as the medium - term demand is weak [102]. - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious due to the current vacuum period of spot trading [103][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of over - rise increases. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average [106][107][109]. - **Tin**: The supply vulnerability is prominent, and the tin price reaches a new high. It is recommended to be vigilant against the selling pressure after the digestion of macro - positive sentiment [110][111][112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Maersk lowers the price for wk5, and there are still differences in the intensity of rush - shipping. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct positive arbitrage on the 6 - 10 spread [113][114][115]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and expect an oscillating and strengthening trend. Also, note that domestic gasoline is strong and diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong [116][118]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is favorable, but supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [118][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend and hold the FU59 positive spread [121][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF and JKM contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [126][127][129]. - **LPG**: There is a strong current situation and weak expectations. It is recommended to have a short - term long and long - term short view and pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event [129][132][133]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 and 5 contracts [133][134][135]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene is expected to reduce supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for pure benzene and conduct long - styrene and short - pure - benzene arbitrage [136][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Downstream production cuts increase, and the price has limited upside. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation and sell call options [138][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [140][142]. - **Bottle Chips**: Some maintenance device plans are announced. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [142][144]. - **Propylene**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [144][146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, try to go long on the PP 2605 contract, and sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract [148][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda weakens. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend and wait and see [153][155]. - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [155][157]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a wide - range oscillation this week. It is recommended to short on rallies during the wide - range oscillation and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month high [158][160]. - **Glass**: The futures price falls. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation this week, short on rallies, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options [160][164]. - **Methanol**: It runs firmly. It is recommended to avoid short positions and go long with attention to the Middle East situation [165][167]. - **Urea**: It runs weakly. It is recommended to short lightly and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [167][169][170]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [172][174][175]. - **Log**: The spot price rebounds slightly. It is recommended for aggressive investors to buy a small amount of long positions and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [176][178][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of cultural paper. It is recommended to wait and see and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [179][180][182]. - **Natural Rubber**: The import value of Thai rubber machinery decreases. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 contract, try to go long on the NR 03 contract, and hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread [183][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The decline of the US dollar index sets a record. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 03 contract and hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread [186][188].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受美国农业部供需报告超预期利空的影响，豆类期价整体转弱。美国农业部 1 月份的月度供需 报告，作为对 2025/26 产季的最终核定，以一系列超预期的数据调整，为全球大豆市场定下了基调。本次 报告的核心特征在于数据与市场普遍预期形成强烈反差，尤其是美国大豆数据的调整方向全面利空。国内 尽管豆粕现货报价保持坚挺，然而，国内大豆与豆粕库存整体仍处于历史同期偏高水平，原料供应充裕。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated January 14, 2026, covering various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to narrow [2] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [2] - Soybean meal: Likely to follow US soybeans in digesting the USDA report, with a weakening market [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and the market may fluctuate [2] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2] - Sugar: Expected to operate weakly [2] - Cotton: To continue the adjustment trend [2] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, but sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2] - Hogs: There is negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply continues to be postponed [2] - Peanuts: To operate in a fluctuating manner [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,778 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,758 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton, and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons (20.28 million tons in 2025), and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons (3.05 million tons in 2025). India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than November. Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel policy implementation depends on crude oil and palm oil prices [5][6][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 4,329 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change, and night - session closing price was 4,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change; DCE soybean meal's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a - 1.12% change [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, CBOT soybeans fell to a two - and - a - half - month low. The USDA lowered US soybean export forecasts by 60 million bushels (1.63 million tons) and raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Private exporters reported sales of 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the day - session and 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change in the night - session; the closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase in the day - session and 2,278 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change in the night - session [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton, and containerized first - class grain port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.84 US cents/pound with a - 0.05 change, the mainstream spot price was 5,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the futures main contract price was 5,253 yuan/ton with a - 32 change [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 31, the 2025/26 Indian sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year. India has signed 180,000 tons of export contracts this season. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons) [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,760 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase in the day - session and 14,745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change in the night - session; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,765 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase in the day - session and 20,820 yuan/ton with a 0.26% change in the night - session [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading weakened. Some cotton merchants slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The overall price of pure cotton yarn was stable, but the actual transaction center moved down slightly. The downstream weaving mills' new orders were limited, and the grey fabric inventory was high [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,960 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.53% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 2,990 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.32% change [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton with a 100 increase, the Sichuan spot price was 13,000 yuan/ton with a - 100 change, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,260 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of hog 2603 was 11,795 yuan/ton with a 60 increase, the closing price of hog 2605 was 12,170 yuan/ton with a 5 increase, and the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,830 yuan/ton with a 5 increase [32] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton with a - 100 change. The closing price of PK603 was 7,862 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,874 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change [35] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin, and the price of Xingcheng "Little Japan" peanuts was 4.1 - 4.37 yuan/jin [36]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the outer - market US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. Yesterday, the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report. The 2025 US soybean yield remained at a high of 53 bushels, and the overall production changed little. Although the crushing demand continued to improve, the export was poor, especially other countries outside China preferred to buy Brazilian soybeans. The new - season ending stocks increased from 290 million bushels in December to 350 million bushels, higher than last year's 325 million bushels. Brazil's production estimate increased slightly due to good weather. After the report, the potential bullish expectation was shattered, and the previous strong support at 1050 cents may weaken, possibly testing the 1000 - cent support in the future [6]. - Domestic soybean meal was differentiated. The 03 contract was stronger than the 05 contract because of the logic of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter. Today, over 1 million tons of imported soybeans were auctioned and all were sold, indicating potential spot tightness at the end of March. The 03 contract may not remain strong if there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons. The 05 contract, mainly corresponding to Brazilian soybeans, has no current bullish factors and should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Operation Suggestions - Continuously monitor the situation of imported soybean auctions. If there are continuous auctions of over 1 million tons, the 03 contract may not maintain its strength. The 05 contract should be treated as bearish after rebounds [6]. Market Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3124 | 3124 | 3310 | 3124 | 3154 | 30 | 0.96% | 1101456 | -74 | | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3095 | 3119 | 3138 | 3091 | 3117 | 22 | 0.71% | 205862 | 551279 | -15977 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2786 | 2799 | 2805 | 2756 | 2761 | -25 | -0.90% | 1180639 | 2258105 | -34267 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - The USDA report raised the 2025/2026 US soybean area to 81.2 million acres (previously 81.1 million), production to 4.262 billion bushels (previously 4.253 billion), exports to 1.575 billion bushels (previously 1.635 billion), and ending stocks to 350 million bushels (previously 290 million). Brazil's soybean production was raised to 178 million tons (previously 175 million), and exports to 114 million tons (previously 112.5 million). Global soybean production increased to 425.68 million tons (previously 422.54 million), and ending stocks to 124.41 million tons (previously 122.37 million). China's soybean imports remained unchanged at 112 million tons [8]. - AgRural reported that the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean harvest had started. As of January 8, 0.6% of the harvest was completed, slightly higher than last year's 0.3%. The agency expected the annual Brazilian soybean production to reach a record 6.51 billion bushels. The harvest start was slightly later than expected due to the extended growth cycle in some areas, but there was no obvious delay in the progress [8]. - On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of soybeans from 2022 - 2025, located in Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi. All were sold at an average price of 3809.55 yuan/ton, with delivery dates from January 15 to April 30, 2026 [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Apple - Short - term, the apple futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival. Long - term, good - quality fruits are in short supply with firm prices, while high prices may suppress consumption, and the market share of ordinary apples is squeezed by other fruits, leading to high inventory pressure. The futures market shows a high - level shock with a near - strong and far - weak price pattern [1]. Red Dates - The current red date market has sufficient supply, with off - grade and finished products arriving at the sales areas. The overall market transaction is weak, and the consumption peak season is lackluster. Recently, the number of futures warehouse receipts has gradually increased. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the futures prices fluctuate within a range [3]. Oils and Fats - Palm oil shows a trend of rising and then falling due to rumors about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Domestic palm oil may test the support at 8750 yuan. For soybean oil, the US market has a decrease in production but an increase in ending stocks, which is bearish. However, domestic soybean oil fundamentals are improving, but the rise is restricted by USDA and MPOB reports. Rapeseed oil is boosted by the strong performance of related external oils, but its upward momentum is limited due to expected trade - relation easing and global rapeseed harvest. There is a risk of it falling to 8900 yuan, while the spot price remains strong due to low inventory [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the corn market, the supply in the Northeast region is still limited, and prices are strong before the Spring Festival. In the North China region, prices fluctuate slightly. The demand side has different inventory strategies for different enterprises, and policy - driven corn auctions are ongoing but with limited scale. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's need for stocking support prices, but policy - released corn restricts the increase. For corn starch, prices also show certain fluctuations [7]. Sugar - The market's focus is on Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane season starting in April. ICE raw - sugar futures have a slight increase due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of December. The expected increase in the next - season's sugar - cane yield in Brazil and India's strong production, along with Thailand's slow - progress season, lead to a stable and fluctuating raw - sugar price in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the sugar price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [10]. Meal Products - USDA slightly raises the US soybean production and lowers exports, causing the US soybean inventory to rise and the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support at around 1050 cents. In the domestic market, the supply is abundant, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is high, which suppresses the market. But the expected low - level arrival in the first quarter and the uncertainty of arrival time limit the downward space of soybean meal. The market maintains a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [12]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are relatively stable, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The US cotton shows a decrease in both production and ending stocks in January compared to December. The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas is rising, and the export sales are declining, so US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Zhengzhou cotton has support from textile enterprises' rigid demand, but with increasing unfavorable factors such as compressed profits and expanding price differences between domestic and foreign cotton. The short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment period [14]. Live Pigs - The live - pig spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, the market demand has significantly declined, with reduced supply in the North and a sharp drop in demand in the South, suppressing the price. Although there is still some second - fattening activity, the enthusiasm is limited. The overall supply in January is expected to be abundant, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [15]. Eggs - The egg supply is in an oversupply stage, with a slight decrease in the number of culled hens and a small increase in newly - laid hens. There is a structural difference in egg sizes. The demand is increasing due to the peak production season of food enterprises and the approaching Spring Festival, but the increase is mainly in the trade - link inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there may be a short - term adjustment, but there is still a possibility of a small increase, with attention to the pressure level around 3100 [17]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - Futures prices: Apple 2605 (main contract) rose 1.55%, and Apple 2610 rose 0.81%. The basis decreased by 10.42%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 6.96%. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several major fruit wholesale markets increased, with a 16.67% increase at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market. - Inventory and profit: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit increased [1]. Red Dates - Futures prices: Red date 2605 (main contract) fell 1.09%, and other contracts also showed declines. The 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads decreased. - Spot prices: The prices of different - grade red dates in Cangzhou were relatively stable. The basis of Cangzhou's top - grade and first - grade red dates against the main contract increased. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.71%, and the effective forecast decreased by 15.25% [3]. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.18%, the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 21.77%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17%. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 2.89%, the futures price of P2605 increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 264.86%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72%. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.55%, the futures price of OI605 increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 15.69%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 14.40% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The futures price of Corn 2603 decreased by 0.26%, the basis increased by 32.00%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 100.00%. The import cost from Brazil decreased by 3.38%, and the import profit increased by 37.80%. - Corn starch: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 decreased by 0.19%, the basis increased by 8.78%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 10.34% [7]. Sugar - Futures market: The futures prices of Sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.34%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 116.67%. - Spot market: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were stable. The basis in Nanning increased by 42.67%, and in Kunming, it increased by 58.18%. - Industry situation: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased [10]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.32%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 1.04%, and the basis increased by 5.28%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 40.1%. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.42%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.69%, and the basis increased by 8.57%. The Canadian 3 - month shipping - period crushing profit increased by 2.87% [12]. Cotton - Futures market: The futures prices of Cotton 2605 and 2609 increased, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.71%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.82%. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index 3128B decreased, while the FC Index M 1% increased. The basis differences between 3128B and futures contracts decreased. - Industry situation: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, and the textile - related export and retail data showed certain changes [14]. Live Pigs - Futures market: The futures price of Live Pig 2605 increased slightly, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 12.79%. The main - contract basis increased by 3.43%. - Spot market: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 1.12%, and the white - strip price increased by 0.92% [15]. Eggs - Futures market: The futures prices of Egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The 3 - 4 spread decreased by 2.53%. - Spot market: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.77%, and the basis increased by 36.92%. - Related indicators: The egg - chicken - seedling price, egg - feed ratio, and breeding profit increased, while the culled - chicken price decreased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut spot prices are relatively stable, with the prices in Henan being stable and those in Northeast China being weak. The futures will continue to fluctuate weakly. The spot prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable, and the theoretical profit of oil mills is good. It is recommended to buy 05 peanuts at low prices in the short - term, wait and see for the month - spread, and sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices for options [3][5][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 7852, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 20,312 (down 35.37%) and an open interest of 34,637 (down 0.94%) [1] - PK610 closed at 8246, down 16 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 513 (up 155.22%) and an open interest of 2,639 (up 7.32%) [1] - PK601 had no valid closing price and trading volume data, with an open interest of 1,012 (down 3.80%) [1] Spot and Basis - Spot prices: Henan Nanyang was 7400, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8400, Rizhao peanut meal was 3200, Rizhao soybean meal was 3110, peanut oil was 14350, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8420. The price of Rizhao soybean meal decreased by 10, and that of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil increased by 100, while others remained unchanged [1] - Basis: The basis of Henan Nanyang was - 452, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 548. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 6, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5930 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices: In Northeast China, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.6 yuan/jin (stable), and that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.55 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin (stable), and in Junan, Shandong it was 3.5 yuan/jin (stable). Imported peanut prices were stable, with Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new rice at 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification rice 50/60 at 8000 yuan/ton [3] - Peanut oil prices: The purchase price of some peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7780 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was stable at 14300 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was stable at 16500 yuan/ton [3] - By - product prices: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal priced at 3100 yuan/ton [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 05 peanut contract will fluctuate at the bottom, and short - term long positions can be taken at low prices [8] - Month - spread: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the price difference between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the price difference between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][19][21]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report significantly increased the production forecast, leading to a sharp decline in US corn prices. However, the global corn supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside space for US corn prices. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2126 yuan. The domestic corn and starch markets have different trends, with corn showing regional differences and starch being affected by corn prices and inventory changes. The report suggests short - selling 03 corn and 03 starch, and adopting a short - term cumulative put option strategy for corn options, while remaining on the sidelines for arbitrage [4][6][7][8][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 - C2601 closed at 2298, down 3 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 0, a 100% decrease, and an open interest of 9,186, a 0.12% decrease - C2605 closed at 2277, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 184,628, a 10.50% decrease, and an open interest of 621,422, a 2.87% increase - C2509 closed at 2291, down 6 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 7,901, a 11.98% decrease, and an open interest of 53,279, a 1.06% increase - CS2601 closed at 2540, up 2 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 100, an 80% decrease, and an open interest of 2,400, unchanged - CS2605 closed at 2591, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 14,970, a 17.23% increase, and an open interest of 53,742, a 7.87% increase - CS2509 closed at 2619, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 230, a 44.44% decrease, and an open interest of 2,876, a 1.20% increase [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2150, 2180, 2304, 2276, 2340, 2420, and 2470 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 6, 10, 10, 0, and 10 respectively. The basis was -141, -111, 13, -15, 63, 129, and 179 respectively [2] - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2730, 2700, 2700, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2750 respectively, with price changes of 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis was 139, 109, 109, 269, 209, 289, and 159 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - month spreads: C01 - C05 was 21, down 1; C05 - C09 was - 14, up 4; C09 - C01 was - 7, down 3 - Starch inter - month spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 51, up 7; CS05 - CS09 was - 28, up 2; CS09 - CS01 was 79, down 9 - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 328, down 1; CS01 - C01 was 242, up 5; CS05 - C05 was 314, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn report led to a sharp decline in US corn prices, but the global supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the domestic northern port closing prices are rising. The northeast corn spot is strong, while the supply in North China is increasing, and the corn price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is narrowing. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is increasing, and the Shandong corn spot is stable. The northeast starch spot is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 2.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot is also strong, but enterprise profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract followed the market up and then down, and it is expected that the short - term rebound space for the 03 starch contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Start short - selling 03 corn and continue to short - sell 03 starch - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9][10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report includes six charts showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [14][15][16][18][19]