Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering imposing new tariffs on approximately six industries, citing "national security" as the reason, which may include large batteries, cast iron and iron fittings, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and grid and telecommunications equipment [1] - The proposed tariffs will be separate from the recently announced global 15% tariff measures [1] - Over 1,000 companies have joined legal actions against the government, seeking refunds for previously paid tariffs, including major firms like Costco and Reebok [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet emphasized that the Supreme Court's ruling did not address the refund process for previously collected tariffs, leaving it to lower courts to decide [6][7] - The potential refund amount is estimated to be around $134 billion, with some models suggesting it could exceed $175 billion when considering future adjustments [10] - The refund process is expected to involve a combination of court actions, customs, and administrative departments, with the White House already signing an executive order to terminate additional tariffs under the IEEPA [11][12] Group 3 - The legal battle over the IEEPA tariffs represents a significant financial tug-of-war between companies and the Treasury, with the refund issue becoming a politically sensitive topic for the current U.S. administration [15]

化工ETF（159870），联接基金（A类 014942，C类 014943，I类 022792） 万华化学（600309）、盐湖股份（000792）、藏格矿业（000408）、天赐材料（002709）、华鲁恒升 （600426）、巨化股份（600160）、恒力石化（600346）、宝丰能源（600989）、云天化（600096）、 荣盛石化（002493） 截至02月24日09:45，化工ETF(159870.SZ)上涨1.98%，其关联指数细分化工(000813.CSI)上涨1.97%；主 要成分股中，盐湖股份上涨4.52%，云天化上涨8.24%，万华化学上涨1.52%，兴发集团上涨5.98%，龙 佰集团上涨4.58%。 关联产品： 消息面上，1) 美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，但新关税框架生效引发市场波动，短期利好非 美资产，化工行业或受益于关税影响减弱及全球经济复苏预期；2) TMP行业因供应端收缩（万华等厂 商退出产能）及需求旺盛（百川股份排产至3月底/4月）推动价格上涨，相关化工企业成本传导顺畅； 3) 电子布与玻纤行业分化，玻纤需求受风电、基建回暖支撑，头部企业通过产能调整应对市场波动， ...

中国外交部发言人2月23日宣布，德国总理默茨将于25日至26日应邀对中国进行正式访问。默茨上周在 社交平台X上发文称，"愿马年为德中关系注入力量、带来新动力"，并表示期待不久后启程访华。欧洲 问题专家23日对《环球时报》记者表示，这是一次迟来但意义重大的访问，近期国际形势的变化，让德 国及默茨政府逐渐意识到，必须进一步提升对华关系的重要性。对默茨本人而言，这次访华也是一次重 要的认知更新契机。 根据德国总理府网站公布的访华行程，默茨24日从德国启程，将于25日在北京出席德中经济顾问委员会 座谈会，并与中国领导人举行会晤。在北京访问期间，他还将参观故宫以及德国车企梅赛德斯-奔驰。 之后，默茨将前往杭州，访问中国机器人企业宇树科技以及德国企业西门子能源。 据欧洲新闻台20日报道，默茨在基民盟党代会上宣布访华消息时表示："我们需要与全球各国发展经济 关系，这当然包括中国这样的国家。"他同时强调，将率领一支"庞大的商务代表团"一同访华。他表 示："当今的外交政策同样也是对外经济政策，而对外经济政策是我们经济政策的核心组成部分。" 据德国《商报》报道，这支"庞大的商务代表团"包括约30位高级商业代表，其中包括拜尔制药、 ...

市场情绪：37 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 相关研究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn | 1、《双融日报》2026-02-13 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-02-12 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-02-11 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 37 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：机器人、电网设备、化工 1、机器人主题：2026 年春晚堪称机器人"含量"最高的一 届，标志着中国机器人行业正从"炫技"加速迈向"商 用"。舞台上，宇树机器人完成空翻、武术等高动态集群控 制，技术全球领先。随着量产成本下降，一个规模巨大的增 量市场正加速形成。相关标的：三花智控（002050）、卧龙 电驱（600580） 2、电网设备主题：全球 AI 数据中心（AIDC）耗电 ...

马年投资如何布局？市场主线又将如何演绎？ 站在马年的投资新起点，面对宏观环境、产业趋势与市场风格的多重变化，投资者该如何把握机遇、规避风险？为 此，证券时报特邀5位资深基金经理，共同前瞻马年投资机遇，解读核心赛道机会，为广大投资者梳理全年配置思路 与方向。 平安基金神爱前：震荡向上行情有望延续，看好科技与周期等机会 展望马年市场的投资机会，平安基金权益投资总监神爱前认为市场面临较好的内外环境，系统风险较小，投资重心在 于寻找结构性行业与个股机会。 神爱前分析，一方面，需要着重观察宏观企稳改善的迹象与预期，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，宏观政策更加积极 有为，尤其国内供强需弱的矛盾有望逐步缓解。 另一方面，整体上市公司盈利预计将会改善。2025三季度更能反映真实需求的整体上市公司收入已经企稳向上，但整 体上市公司毛利率仍在回落，表明价格仍然是盈利的主要拖累项。但2025年下半年以来，在"反内卷"政策的影响下， 周期资源品的价格已出现改善，2026年PPI有望同比逐渐回升，并带动上市公司盈利实质性回升。 再就是，外部环境预计偏暖，2026年关税扰动消退，外部环境摩擦可能性减小。同时美联储降息周期开启，主要经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a positive market opening in the A-share market is high, supported by historical data and upcoming policy expectations [3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The first trading day of the Year of the Horse is approaching, with mixed sentiments in the market. While the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen by 3%, certain sectors like robotics and AI have seen declines [1]. - Historical data shows a 60% chance of an increase on the first trading day after the holiday, rising to 70% over the next five days and remaining at 70% over ten days [3]. Group 2: Sector Focus - There has been a shift in investment from high-valuation technology stocks to defensive sectors like banking and food and beverage prior to the holiday, indicating a "pre-holiday risk aversion" [4]. - Post-holiday, there is an expectation for funds to return to growth sectors with industrial catalysts and performance support, particularly in technology and domestic demand [4]. - Key areas of focus include technology growth stocks with solid orders and performance, such as core components in computing and robotics, as well as domestic demand sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials, which may experience a "value return" this year [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Recommendations include reviewing current holdings, particularly those without performance backing, and adjusting positions during market rebounds [6]. - Investors are advised not to chase high openings and to look for buying opportunities during market fluctuations [7]. - Establishing a dual strategy focusing on technology growth and domestic demand is suggested for a more stable investment approach [7].

Group 1 - The core investment theme post-Spring Festival revolves around "price increases" and "revaluation of physical assets," particularly in resource, chemical, and midstream manufacturing sectors, leveraging China's pricing power amid global uncertainties [1][2] - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus, with sub-sectors like computing power, applications, and robotics expected to remain active due to industrial catalysts [1][2] - The recovery of export chains, non-bank financials, and certain consumer and real estate chains are seen as important supplements to market trends under the backdrop of internal and external demand recovery [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities emphasizes that price increases are a core configuration clue for Q1, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy, while also increasing exposure to undervalued insurance and brokerage stocks [2] - Historical data indicates that February and the period around the Spring Festival are strong for market movements, with small-cap stocks showing a 100% probability of rising from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [3] - Guojin Securities highlights the importance of balancing global physical assets against Chinese assets, recommending commodities like copper, aluminum, and oil, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing [4] Group 3 - Industrial sectors experiencing structural price increases due to supply-demand gaps are primarily in midstream materials and manufacturing, with a focus on chemicals, steel, and high-end manufacturing [5] - The potential for recovery in the export chain is noted, particularly in industries with significant exposure to the U.S. market that will benefit from reduced tariffs [5] - The policy uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade is expected to favor gold as a risk hedge, with market participants anticipating potential shifts in U.S. trade policy [6] Group 4 - Attention is drawn to the post-holiday inventory replenishment in commodities, with a continued positive outlook on technology applications, particularly in semiconductors and AI [7] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a sector receiving dual catalysts from policy and technological advancements, with significant developments in quantum key distribution networks [8] - The AI industry revolution is identified as a key investment theme, focusing on computing power, storage, and applications, with a strong emphasis on the performance of high-growth sectors [9] Group 5 - Localized opportunities are expected in AI applications linked to overseas trends and robotics associated with the Spring Festival, with a cautious approach to market movements anticipated [10] - The current bull market logic remains intact, with a recommendation for investors to maintain confidence despite short-term volatility, focusing on sectors with high securities ratios [11]

走进兰州，可以感受到这座老工业城市在嬗变。 一些企业家说，以前"跑断腿"的事，现在有政府专班人员在帮着跑，企业只专心做好生产经营；有科研 人员感慨，以前很多成果写完论文、评完奖就被束之高阁，现在转化的渠道更通畅了；有的干部坦言， 以前碰见棘手问题绕着走，现在不怕事、敢担事，还要琢磨如何干成事…… 这些心声被总结为一句话："当前的兰州呈现态势更好、气势更足、趋势更向上的发展势头。""十四 五"期间，特别是甘肃实施"强省会"行动以来的相关数据印证"兰州向上"—— 全市经济增速由2022年的0.8%提升至2025年的5.5%，对全省经济增长的贡献率由5.2%提升至27.7%；5 年来累计实施投资项目3270个，省外招商引资项目到位资金年均增长13%；综合科技进步水平指数达到 82.61%，跃居全球科研城市百强榜第48位；连续3年入选全国营商环境创新城市，连续4年居甘肃省营 商环境考评第一位。 近年来，兰州将营商环境视为"生命线"。甘肃省委常委、兰州市委书记张晓强说，对标国际国内一流水 平，兰州向高标准看齐，坚决打好优化营商环境攻坚战，着力营造良好产业发展生态和创业创新生态， 为推动高质量发展带来了新气象、新活力、新 ...

编者按 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 金焰介绍，2025年非银机构存款余额显著增加6.4万亿元，银行理财产品规模突破33万亿元，较2024年 年末增加3.3万亿元，其中97%以上为固收类产品。"在利率下行的背景下，单纯的固收类资产难以满足 投资者的收益需求，增配权益类资产来提升整体回报已成为必然选择。预计'固收+'策略将凭借稳健与 增强收益的特性，成为广大投资者资产配置的主流选择。"他说。 他进一步表示，"固收"部分以中短久期、高等级信用债为主，获取稳健票息收益，并充当"安全 垫"；"+"部分则通过可转债、ETF、精选个股以及CTA策略等工具实现收益增强。配置比例需严格依据 资金风险收益目标动态校准，控制在 ...

图为1月7日，在比利时布鲁塞尔，市民在雪中步行。 新华社记者 彭子洋摄 能源供应与价格波动加剧，欧洲经济稳定面临威胁。俄乌冲突长期化及对俄能源禁令重塑了欧洲能源格局。 欧盟自2026年起禁止与俄罗斯签订新的天然气合同，加速转向美国和卡塔尔的液化天然气，但这一转型面临 基础设施不足和成本高昂的问题，能源价格波动和地缘溢价持续存在，一旦供应中断或运输受阻，将再次推 高通胀并削弱家庭购买力和企业利润。尽管欧洲在绿色能源转型上步伐较快，2025年实现了可再生能源发电 量首次超过化石燃料，但配套的电网基础设施更新换代较慢，电网老化导致清洁电力难以有效输送，发电和 输配电能力不匹配，陷入了"有电难用"的困境。能源成本上升直接推高居民物价预期，抑制消费意愿。 量较小，难以弥补德、法、意三大国的疲软。在这样的格局下，欧盟单一市场的优势正在遭到严重削弱。内 部壁垒推高跨境贸易成本，地缘政治博弈削弱各国政策协同能力，财政与改革分化阻碍一体化进程，资本外 流与创新滞后动摇长期竞争力。 面临内外部挑战和困局，欧洲已推出一系列系统性政策应对挑战。深化单一市场改革，破解"碎片化"困局， 欧盟正着力消除内部壁垒，推动真正意义上的"单一监管 ...