其 他 报 告 2025年06月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3385 | 0.04 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10184 | -0.19 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3874 | -0.09 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2039 | -0.45 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.03 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6915 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23793 | -0.48 | 2.16 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8630 | -0.63 | 2.34 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 21661 | -0.06 | 1.47 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42763 | 1.0 ...

自由现金流：价值投资的新思路 自由现金流指标拆解：自由现金流（Free Cash Flow）是指在不影响公司持 续发展的前提下可供分配给企业资本供应者的最大现金额，可由经营现金流 -资本开支计算。拥有稳定充足自由现金流的公司，除其业绩指标稳定健康外， 还需有能力将账面利润转换为可以自由支配的现金流；自由现金流是公司理 论的最大分红金额，也是公司分红能力的直接来源。 海外现金流产品发展成熟，代表产品规模增速快、长期持有胜率高：自由现 金流产品在海外发展较为成熟，成立时间最早、规模最大的产品为 Pacer 旗 下的美国现金牛 100ETF（COWZ），该产品规模 2022 增长速度较快，净 值走势稳健，长期持有战胜基准价值指数的胜率高。 自由现金流适应当下宏观环境：当前低利率宽货币的环境下，自由现金流充 足的公司，根据自由现金流贴现模型其估值的抬升将强于自由现金流较弱的 公司；在信用收紧的环境中，具备内生性自由现金流创造能力的优质企业中 具备安全边际，股价具有一定韧性。 自由现金流能够规避价值陷阱：自由现金流指标与公司基本面挂钩更为紧 密，且更新频率相比股息率指标更为迅速，公司经营情况的变化能够及时反 映在指标中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $65.4/$63.3 per barrel, up $1.0/$2.2 per barrel from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week - on - week change of - 379/-430/+51/+58 thousand barrels [2]. - The US crude oil production was 13.41 million barrels per day, up 10 thousand barrels per day week - on - week. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 442, down 19 week - on - week. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 186, down 4 week - on - week [2]. - The US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17 million barrels per day, up 670 thousand barrels per day week - on - week; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 93.4%, up 3.2 percentage points week - on - week [2]. - The US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.35/3.91/2.44 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 1/-39/+39 thousand barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $87/$87/$89 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of - $0.3/+$0.5/ - $5.1 per barrel; the spreads to crude oil were $21/$22/$23 per barrel, with a week - on - week change of - $1.0/ - $0.2/ - $5.8 per barrel [2]. - The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, up 522/423/94 thousand barrels week - on - week [2]. - The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.04/4.99/1.89 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 71/+18/+4 thousand barrels per day [2]. - The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 8.26/3.15/1.76 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 119/ - 74/ - 2 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), etc. Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), etc [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector 3.2.1 Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector - Data on the percentage changes in the rise and fall of various industry sectors and the petroleum and petrochemical sub - sectors are presented, but specific values are not fully detailed in the provided text [14][19] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - Performance data such as the rise and fall percentages, latest prices, and market capitalizations of upstream listed companies in the past week, month, three months, one year, and since the beginning of 2025 are provided [24]. - Valuation data including stock prices, total market capitalizations, net profits attributable to the parent company, P/E ratios, and P/B ratios of listed companies from 2024 to 2027 are presented [26]. 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Prices - Data on the prices and spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationships between copper prices, the US dollar index, and WTI crude oil prices are presented [31][33][40] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Data on the US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are provided, including historical data and week - on - week changes [54][55][62] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - The US crude oil production, number of active crude oil rigs, and number of active fracturing fleets are presented, along with their relationships with oil prices [67][68] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Data on the US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate are provided [71][76] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Imports and Exports - Data on the US crude oil imports, exports, net imports, and the imports, exports, and net imports of crude oil and petroleum products are presented [78][81] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Prices - Data on the prices and spreads of crude oil and refined oils (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) in the US, Europe, and Singapore are presented [88][97][103] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Data on the inventories of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US and Singapore are provided [118][123][130] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Data on the production of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US are presented [137] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Data on the consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US, as well as the number of US airport passenger security checks, are provided [140][144][146] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Imports and Exports - Data on the imports, exports, and net exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the US are presented [152][155][157] 3.5 Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Data on the average daily rates of jack - up drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry are presented [165][166]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government aiming to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is generally neutral. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. The report recommends a portfolio of the dividend index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][15][21] - The performance of the US economy is closely watched, especially whether and when the quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level. The current situation in the US is similar to that during the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001 [6] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. A + H dividend - type stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [7][15][63] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7% previously, in line with expectations. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then decline. By the end of the year, it is projected to drop to around 8% [1][16] - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation eased marginally, but a monthly high may occur. The government's debt (including national and local bonds) increased by 219.5 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 128.3 billion yuan). The planned increase this week is 176.2 billion yuan. The government's liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of April 2025, up from 13.9% previously, and is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][17] 3.1.2 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume increased week - on - week, the capital price decreased, and the term spread widened. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital situation eased marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield trended downwards, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The estimated lower bound of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds widened to 24 basis points. The estimated central level of the term spread is adjusted downwards to 40 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the ten - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.7%. The central level of the spread between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is estimated at 20 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.9% [2][17] 3.1.3 Asset Side - In April, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to March. The 2025 government work report set the annual real economic growth target at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target at around 4.9% when calculated backwards from the deficit and deficit ratio. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation eased marginally, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds, with the growth style outperforming expectations. Bond yields declined across the board, and the stock - bond ratio shifted towards stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 1.41%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.88% [5][20] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If value - type equity assets continue to fall, a good entry opportunity may emerge [6][21] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, composites, and computers had the largest increases, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [27] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 6, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 10.4%, 9.8%, 7.9%, 7.2%, and 7% respectively. The bottom five were composites, steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively [30] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and computers, with increases of 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1%, and 0.4% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, automobiles, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, and banks, with changes of - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 0.9%, - 0.7%, and - 0.6% respectively [30] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.09 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were social services, non - bank finance, building materials, media, and non - ferrous metals, while composites, commercial retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment had the smallest increases [31] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, electronics, non - ferrous metals, composites, and computers had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [35] - As of June 6, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMI of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 3.34% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 1.3% in May. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March 2025 rose to a relatively high level in history, declined significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing trading volume declined significantly compared to the historical seasonality [40] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of June (June 3 - 6), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 3.6%, 2.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.9% [57] - As of June 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.46 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [7][63]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [6]. Core Insights - Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are driving a rebound in oil prices, with a focus on OPEC+'s actual production levels. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, and there are ongoing sanctions against Iran, which have made market shorts more cautious. Additionally, the number of U.S. oil rigs has decreased for six consecutive weeks, indicating potential production shortfalls [2][10]. - As of June 6, 2025, the Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 4.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $64.58 per barrel, up 6.23% week-on-week. The NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $3.79 per million British thermal units, up 9.33% week-on-week [3][11][44]. - U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.41 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 17 million barrels per day. However, gasoline and distillate fuel oil production saw mixed results [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a rebound in prices due to macroeconomic recovery and geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, but the market has not fully priced in these changes [2][10]. - The U.S. strategic oil reserves stood at 401.82 million barrels, with commercial crude oil inventories at 436.06 million barrels, reflecting a decrease of 4.3 million barrels week-on-week [12]. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of key companies, recommending those with strong resource advantages and high dividend yields, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [5][13]. - The report also notes that the oil and gas sector has outperformed the broader market indices, with a 1.1% increase in the sector compared to a 0.9% increase in the CSI 300 index [14][17]. Price Trends - Oil prices have shown significant increases, with Brent and WTI prices rising by 4.02% and 6.23% respectively. Natural gas prices have also increased, with NYMEX futures up 9.33% [36][44]. - The report provides detailed price data, indicating that the Brent crude oil price is currently at $66.47 per barrel, while the NYMEX natural gas price is at $3.79 per million British thermal units [37][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sinopec, New Natural Gas, and Zhongman Petroleum [6]. Core Views - Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are driving a rebound in oil prices, with a focus on OPEC+'s actual production levels. The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, and there are ongoing sanctions against Iran, which have made market shorts more cautious. Additionally, the number of U.S. oil rigs has decreased for six consecutive weeks, indicating potential production shortfalls [2][10]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day from May to July, but the market has not fully priced in the impact of this increase. Monitoring OPEC+'s actual production in May and global demand during the summer is recommended [2][10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Price Performance - As of June 6, Brent crude futures settled at $66.47 per barrel, up 4.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $64.58 per barrel, up 6.23% week-on-week [3][36]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.41 million barrels per day as of May 30, an increase of 10,000 barrels week-on-week. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 442, marking a decline of 19 rigs week-on-week, the largest drop in five years [3][11][53]. Inventory Levels - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 43.606 million barrels, down 4.3 million barrels week-on-week. Gasoline inventories increased by 522,000 barrels to 22.830 million barrels [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. Oil prices have a solid floor, and companies with strong earnings certainty and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, CNOOC, and Sinopec, are recommended. 2. With domestic encouragement for oil and gas exploration and production, companies like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum, which are in a growth phase, are also recommended [5][13]. Market Performance - As of June 6, the oil and petrochemical sector increased by 1.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.9% [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a rebound in the first trading week of June, with over 125 stocks receiving "buy" ratings from brokerages, indicating a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly electronics, automotive, and power equipment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share indices experienced a fluctuating upward trend from June 3 to June 6, with brokerages actively researching investment opportunities [1]. - By June 6, 125 stocks had received "buy" ratings, with notable interest in the electronics, automotive, and power equipment sectors [2]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The electronics sector had the highest number of recommended stocks, totaling 23, including companies like Hengxuan Technology and BOE Technology Group [3]. - The automotive sector, particularly Great Wall Motors, received significant attention, with four brokerages issuing "buy" ratings due to a recovery in sales driven by new product launches [1][2]. - Power equipment companies are gaining traction as high temperatures increase market focus on electricity operators, with expectations of improved profitability [4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The storage chip industry is viewed positively, with expectations of a recovery driven by rising demand for advanced computing chips and normalization of inventory levels [4]. - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from advancements in L4 autonomous driving technology, with recommendations to focus on fleet operators, leading component suppliers, and leading manufacturers in smart driving [5].

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sentiment, capital flows, ETF premiums/discounts, block trades, and institutional activity. No quantitative models or factors are discussed or analyzed.

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations today, with major indices showing mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% [3] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing down by 0.48%. Notably, stocks like SMIC and Trip.com Group saw significant declines [12][13] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains in the A-share market, with an increase of over 1%. Stocks such as Shengda Resources and Silver Industry reached their daily limit, while several others rose by more than 5% [3] - The communication sector also performed well, with stocks like 263 and Chutian Long hitting their daily limit [4] - Other sectors that showed positive performance included oil and petrochemicals, construction decoration, basic chemicals, and building materials [5] - Conversely, sectors such as beauty care, textiles and apparel, food and beverage, and media showed weak performance, with varying degrees of decline [6] - Concept sectors like glyphosate, nickel metals, shale gas, and lithium mining also saw significant gains [7] Notable Company Events - Longjin Tui (002750.SZ) entered the delisting arrangement period today, with its stock price plummeting by 36.28% and trading volume exceeding 40 million yuan [8][10] - The company received a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the termination of its stock listing due to financial performance issues, including a negative profit total and revenue below 300 million yuan for the previous fiscal year [11] - In the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical company Stone Pharmaceutical Group surged by 12.72% after announcing the approval of its adenosylcobalamin capsule by the National Medical Products Administration, which is expected to enhance its product line in the blood and nervous system treatment areas [13] Commodity Market - In the futures market, domestic silver futures saw a significant increase of over 4%, with prices surpassing 8,800 yuan per kilogram, marking a new high since the contract's inception [15]

ETF（Exchange-Traded Fund），是一种在证券交易所上市交易的开放式投资基金。它结合 了基金的多样化投资与股票的灵活交易特性，受到越来越多投资者的关注，不仅吸引着基 金投资者通过ETF进行更加灵活的配置，同时也广泛受到股票投资者的关注，逐渐成为金 融产品中最重要的工具之一 。 随着ETF市场的不断发展，ETF产品结构的不断完善，目前已经形成多维度多层次的丰富产 品框架， 从权益到债券，从宽基到策略，能满足投资者多方面的需求。 资料来源：Wind，iFinD，华宝证券研究创新部 与此同时，REITs一级市场的发行热度居高不下。2025年开年发行的国泰君安济南能源供热 REIT，公众投资者认购倍数达到813倍，直接为REITs板块创下"开门红"；而随后提前结束 募集的汇添富九州通医药REIT，公众投资者有效认购倍数达到1192倍，再度刷新历史高 度。 01 ETF 具备多重专业投资优势 其一，采用交易所实时交易机制，支持 T+0 跨境交易，相比 QDII 场外基金显著提 升交易灵活性，可实时捕捉市场机会。 其二，以被动跟踪基准指数为核心，通过完全复制等策略控制偏离度与跟踪误差， 净值走势与标的指 ...