[Table_Title] 政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ·行业配置上，建议关注：1）高景气科技主线：如 AI 算力链、机器人、存储、储能等；2）逢低布局涨价相关周 期品种，如化工、有色等；3）受益于 AI 应用产业趋势方向，如港股互联网。 风险提示：全球经济超预期波动、政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周 A 股主要指数分化，红利指数和上证 50 涨幅居前，北证 50、中证 2000 和科创 50 指领跌。资金 面上，市场日均成交额维持在 3 万亿元附近，显示投资者风险偏好高位运行。一级行业中，石 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The threat of the US to strike Iran has led to an upward oscillation in international oil prices [1]. - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, up $3.8 and $3.2 from last week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9]. 2. This Week's Performance Review of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector - **2.1 Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector**: Information on the sector's performance and the performance of sub - industries, as well as the performance of the sector and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, is presented, but specific data is not provided in the text [11][18]. - **2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector**: - The report provides the latest prices, total market values, and price changes in the past week, month, three months, one year, and since the beginning of 2026 for multiple listed companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [23]. - A valuation table shows the stock prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of these companies from 2024 to 2027 [25]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **3.1 Crude Oil Prices**: It includes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [29][31][40]. - **3.2 Crude Oil Inventory**: Analyzes the correlations between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the increase or decrease of Brent oil prices, and presents the total, commercial, strategic, and Cushing crude oil inventories in the US [43][44][49]. - **3.3 Crude Oil Supply**: Covers US crude oil production, the number of active oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [63][64][66]. - **3.4 Crude Oil Demand**: Focuses on US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rates, Shandong refinery seasonal operating rates, and the operating rates of major refineries in China [71][73][75]. - **3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net import volumes of US crude oil and crude oil and petroleum products [79][81]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **4.1 Refined Oil Prices**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene prices and price differences, as well as the price differences between crude oil and refined oil in the US, Europe, and Singapore [86][109][114]. - **4.2 Refined Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore [124][128][136]. - **4.3 Refined Oil Supply**: Covers the production volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [144][145]. - **4.4 Refined Oil Demand**: Focuses on the consumption volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and the number of airport security checks for passengers [148][149][153]. - **4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [161][167][168]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - It shows the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [176][181].

证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 Index futures rose by 0.11%[1] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%[1] - The yield on wealth management products from joint-stock banks settled at 1.85%, while the annualized yield of Yu'ebao remained at 1.00%[1] Asset Performance - Futures for coking coal rose by 2.75%, and iron ore futures increased by 0.13% this week[1] - The commodity futures index increased by 5.71% this week, indicating strong performance in the commodity sector[6] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.40% to 97.12, while international oil prices surged by 7.65% to $65.74 per barrel[4] Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[4] - The outlook for stocks is positive, with an emphasis on the implementation of "incremental" policies[2] - Bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect[2] Economic Indicators - In December, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing a decline from November[4] - The total fiscal revenue for 2025 was 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while fiscal expenditure increased by 1% to 28.74 trillion yuan[18] Risks and Considerations - Global inflation may rise again, and there is a risk of unexpected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[4] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, which could impact market stability[2]

石油石化 2026 年 2 月 1 日 石油石化周报 伊朗地缘局势严峻，油价短期震荡偏强 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 26/01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 投资建议： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周，我们建议关注石油石化、氟化工、半导体材料板块。石油石化：伊朗局势升级，美欧关系就格陵兰岛问题存在较大波折， 委内油供应能否增加尚存变数，短期内油价或呈现震荡偏强走势；中长期油价锚定基本面，随着 OPEC+增产的推进，美洲国家油 田的开发，基本面过剩格局或将继续演绎，油价仍存在中枢进一步下移的预期。面对国际油价剧烈震荡，国内油企通过上下 游一 体化布局和油气来源多元化降低了业绩对油价的敏感性，并加快在国内海上油气资源开放方面的投入，以降低能源对外依赖程 度。 建议关注增产空间大、成本有优势的中国海油、中曼石油，以及深入炼化一体化布局、降本增效成果较好、企业业绩表现出 较强 韧性的中国石油、恒力石 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 港股市场速览 优于大市 大盘风格传统行业估值拉升 股价表现：大盘风格传统行业带动市场显著上涨 本周，恒生指数+2.4%，恒生综指+1.8%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+2.2%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.3%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-1.2%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生高股息（+4.2%）；下跌的主要有恒 生生物科技（-2.5%）。 国信海外选股策略分化。上涨的主要有红利贵族 50（+2.8%）；下跌的主要 有自由现金流 30（-1.7%）。 16 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+8.7%）、综合 （+6.3%）、建材（+6.3%）、房地产（+5.8%）、非银行金融（+5.8%）；下 跌的主要有：国防军工（-4.5%）、电力设备及新能源（-3.4%）、医药（-2.8%）、 钢铁（-2.3%）、汽车（-2.2%）。 估值水平：红利估值拉升，多数概念下降 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+1.8%至 12.0x； 恒生综指估值+1.2%至 12.0x。 主要概念指数估值普遍下降。上升幅度较大的是恒生高股息（+4.2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 港股市场速览 优于大市 大盘风格传统行业估值拉升 股价表现：大盘风格传统行业带动市场显著上涨 本周，恒生指数+2.4%，恒生综指+1.8%。风格方面，大盘（恒生大型股+2.2%） ＞中盘（恒生中型股+0.3%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-1.2%）。 主要概念指数分化。上涨的主要有恒生高股息（+4.2%）；下跌的主要有恒 生生物科技（-2.5%）。 国信海外选股策略分化。上涨的主要有红利贵族 50（+2.8%）；下跌的主要 有自由现金流 30（-1.7%）。 16 个行业上涨，14 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：石油石化（+8.7%）、综合 （+6.3%）、建材（+6.3%）、房地产（+5.8%）、非银行金融（+5.8%）；下 跌的主要有：国防军工（-4.5%）、电力设备及新能源（-3.4%）、医药（-2.8%）、 钢铁（-2.3%）、汽车（-2.2%）。 估值水平：红利估值拉升，多数概念下降 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）+1.8%至 12.0x； 恒生综指估值+1.2%至 12.0x。 主要概念指数估值普遍下降。上升幅度较大的是恒生高股息（+4.2 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2026 01 31 年 月 日 固定收益点评 固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 2025Q4 公募基金持有转债规模占转债总市值的 57.74%，环比下降 4.08pcts，仓位小幅下降 0.05pcts。截止 2025Q4，转债市场存量余额 5338.90 亿元，环比 25Q3 增加 4.30%。权益势强背景下，固收+配置需 求仍在，转债存量规模略有增加，但机构持有转债比重略有下降。2025Q4 公募基金持有转债市值 3082.51 亿元，占转债总市值的 57.74%，较三季 度减少 4.08pcts；公募基金持有转债仓位为 0.76%，环比下降 0.05pcts。 二级债基、一级债基加仓转债。从结构上看，持有转债较多的基金类型为 债券型基金中的二级债基（ 36.41%）、可转债基金 36.29%）和债券型基 金中的一级债基 21.90%）、偏债混合型基金（ 3.30%）、灵活配置型基金 2.10%）。受基金产品定位与市场策略分化影响，环比 25Q3，二级债基 转债市值增加 39.63 亿元 3.72%，表示转债持有比重增加 3 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - This week (0126 - 0130), there were significant fluctuations in major asset classes. The short - term yields of US stocks, precious metals, and US bonds were significantly adjusted, and the US dollar was slightly repaired. The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2026 may remain restrained. The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets such as US bonds and gold will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [1]. - Overseas uncertainties have led to significant fluctuations in domestic risk - based assets. The report previously suggested that the convertible bond strategy should prioritize "controlling drawdowns" and also pay attention to high - probability pro - cyclical targets. Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [1]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the equity market as a whole declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 4117.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62% to close at 14205.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09% to close at 3346.36 points. The CSI 300 rose 0.08% to close at 4706.34 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 2615.81 billion yuan to 30365.33 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.43% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries closed up, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, rising 7.95%, 5.83%, 3.68%, 3.37%, and 1.82% respectively. National defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and commercial retail led the losses, with declines of 7.69%, 5.10%, 5.08%, 4.77%, and 4.18% respectively [12]. 1.2. Overall Decline in the Convertible Bond Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries closed up, with 2 industries having a gain of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and building decoration led the gains, rising 5.74%, 2.73%, 1.62%, 1.22%, and 0.68% respectively. Household appliances, computers, power equipment, commercial retail, and national defense and military industry led the losses, falling 10.21%, 7.52%, 6.87%, 5.84%, and 5.56% respectively [13]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 902.09 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 30.87 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 3.31%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Zhekuang Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Outong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, and Yunji Convertible Bond. The average trading volume of the top ten convertible bonds reached 93.23 billion yuan, with the first - ranked trading volume reaching 179.39 billion yuan [13]. - Approximately 24.22% of the individual convertible bonds rose, about 6.51% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 13.28% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain of more than 2% [13]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 42.75%, a decrease of 12.58 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the price range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 yuan price range having the largest widening amplitude of 22.90 pcts. In terms of parity ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the parity range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the parity range above 120 yuan having the largest widening amplitude of 3.44 pcts [18]. - In terms of the premium rate changes of each industry, the conversion premium rates of 19 industries widened this week, with 6 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2 pcts. Household appliances, media, food and beverages, commercial retail, and automobiles led the widening amplitude, reaching 7.00 pcts, 4.59 pcts, 3.35 pcts, 2.81 pcts, and 2.78 pcts respectively. Social services, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 8.83 pcts, 5.29 pcts, 3.41 pcts, 3.04 pcts, and 2.62 pcts respectively [26]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 13 industries increased this week, with 10 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the widening amplitude, reaching 6.37%, 4.42%, 4.41%, 4.04%, and 3.91% respectively. Household appliances, commercial retail, building decoration, media, and beauty care led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 3.90%, 2.46%, 2.25%, 1.91%, and 1.70% respectively [29]. 1.3. Comparison of Stock - Bond Market Sentiments - From January 26th to January 30th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were both negative, and the weekly gain of convertible bonds was greater than that of underlying stocks. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 3.31% week - on - week and was at the 84.80% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market increased by 82.04% week - on - week and was at the 97.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of the underlying stocks increased while that of the convertible bonds decreased, and the increase in the trading volume of the underlying stocks was greater and at a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks, about 13.04% of the convertible bonds and about 23.48% of the underlying stocks closed up this week; about 53.33% of the convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than the underlying stocks. In summary, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [32]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [37]. - Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [38]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [39]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]