Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report recommends an equilibrium and growth - oriented style allocation, emphasizing technology and considering cyclical, consumer, and financial sectors. The "transformation bull" in the Chinese stock market is far from over, and the market is in a period of valuation repair and expansion. In the bond market, it is advisable to "emphasize the allocation rhythm and de - emphasize chasing information" [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: In the week of 20251103 - 20251107, A - shares rose due to positive news from Sino - US negotiations and improved export data. The power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 19 rose and 12 fell [3][7]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market declined due to weak import and export data and tight capital sentiment. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds increased, and the main bond indexes fell, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.86% [3][8]. - **Overseas Market**: US stocks fell as private employment data showed a weak labor market. European markets generally declined, and Asian - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. The US dollar index fell 0.18%. Oil prices dropped as US EIA crude inventory increased more than expected, and gold prices fluctuated [3][9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds rose 0.25% overall, with index stock - type funds rising 0.31% and active stock - open funds falling 0.05%. Funds heavily invested in power equipment and some in basic chemicals performed well [3][10]. - **Hybrid Funds**: Active hybrid - open funds rose 0.12% [10]. - **Bond Funds**: Bond funds rose 0.2% overall, with index bond funds falling 0.05% and active bond - open funds rising 0.03%. Some partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in power equipment and aviation performed well [3][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Equity - type QDII funds fell 0.73%, with Hong Kong stock dividend and Hong Kong state - owned enterprise theme funds performing well. QDII bond funds fell 0.02% [12]. - **Other Funds**: Gold ETFs and their linked funds fell 0.36%, and commodity - type funds fell 0.19% [13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - situation**: Consumption showed mixed trends, investment in infrastructure had sufficient funds but limited physical work progress, exports improved, production mostly recovered, prices rose slightly, and liquidity was generally loose [14]. - **Stock Market**: The "transformation bull" in the Chinese stock market will continue, and the underlying logic of the market is changing. The three core factors that previously led to market valuation discounts are being broken and reshaped [15]. - **Investment in Funds**: For stock - mixed funds, maintain an equilibrium and growth - oriented style allocation, focus on technology - themed funds, and consider structural opportunities in financial, cyclical, and consumer sectors. For bond funds, participate in the long - position market before mid - November and set profit - taking points in late November. For currency funds, there are no trend - based investment opportunities. For commodity funds, appropriately allocate gold ETFs [17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **Public Offering Benchmark Reform**: The public offering benchmark reform is accelerating. The benchmark library has been issued, including 69 indexes in the first - class library and 72 in the second - class library, applicable to active - management public - offering funds investing in A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - **Brazil ETFs**: Two Brazil ETFs were over - subscribed by more than 7 times, due to market recovery and some investors' arbitrage intentions [21]. - **Newly - issued Products**: 41 new funds were established last week, with an average subscription period of about 24 days and an average raised share of 6.46 billion, totaling 265 billion shares [22]. - **Fund Dividends**: 72 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week, with E Fund Shenzhen 100 ETF being the most notable, distributing a dividend of 0.85 yuan per 10 shares [23].

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions, predicting fluctuations in oil prices between $50 and $70 per barrel in Q4 2025, with a potential drop to $40 in 2026 [16][11][8]. Oil Price Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production cuts have supported oil prices, while U.S. shale production and global demand fluctuations have created volatility [8][11]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with further increases planned for December [28][16]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory as of October 24, 2025, was 416 million barrels, down 9.54 million barrels year-on-year, and 5.91% lower than the five-year average [17][24]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil demand is projected to grow, with the EIA forecasting an increase of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 240,000 barrels per day in 2026 [7][16]. - The IEA predicts a similar growth trajectory for global oil and liquid production, with increases of 270,000 and 130,000 barrels per day respectively [7][16]. - China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [24]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.11% as of October 31, 2025, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [16][34]. - The manufacturing PMI in China for October 2025 was reported at 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [47]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 546, a decrease of 39 rigs year-on-year, with production remaining stable at 13.64 million barrels per day [24][17]. - Global oil inventories are expected to increase, with a projected average growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 [16]. Price Predictions and Market Outlook - The Brent crude oil price is expected to average $69 per barrel in 2025, with a decline to $52 per barrel in 2026 [16][7]. - The report highlights the potential for oil prices to test lower levels due to increasing supply and geopolitical uncertainties [16][11].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and the decline in international oil and carbon black prices. It suggests focusing on sectors mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan," undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [1][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of November 3-9, 2025, 19 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 45 experienced declines, and 36 remained stable. The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 119,000 CNY/ton, a 12.26% increase from the previous week and a 115.38% increase year-on-year [10][34] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude closing at 59.75 USD/barrel (down 2.02%) and Brent crude at 63.63 USD/barrel (down 2.21%). U.S. oil production increased to an average of 13.651 million barrels per day, up 0.7 thousand barrels from the previous week [10][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan," undervalued leading companies, the effects of "anti-involution" on supply, and the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials. It suggests that policy support may lead to demand recovery and improved performance for leading companies [12][10] - Long-term investment themes include the rapid development of downstream industries such as semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials, as well as maintaining high or improving conditions in sub-industries like fluorochemicals, agrochemicals, refining, dyes, polyester filament, and tires [12][10] Key Products and Price Changes - The report notes significant price changes among various chemical products, with dichloromethane, vitamin E, and toluene seeing notable increases, while trichloroethylene, styrene-butadiene rubber, and methanol experienced declines [32][36] - The average price of carbon black decreased to 5,981 CNY/ton, down 5.53% from the previous week and down 26.31% year-on-year [35] Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 3.54%, ranking 5th among 31 primary industries, while the oil and petrochemical sector increased by 4.47%, ranking 3rd [10][11]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 performance showed revenue of 130.9 billion yuan and net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.32% and 6.25% respectively [2] - The company plans to repurchase 1.5 to 3 billion yuan of shares for cancellation and intends to distribute 30 billion yuan in dividends, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [2] - The food and beverage sector has seen a rise of 3.22% as of November 10, 2025, indicating strong market performance [1][4] Group 2: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - Recent pressure on the oil market has been noted, with WTI and Brent prices declining due to rising U.S. inventories and a decrease in rig counts [3] - Refining margins have significantly improved, leading to better profitability for refineries, supported by diesel demand from logistics during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [3] - The oil price outlook remains uncertain, with potential downward pressure in the medium to long term due to OPEC+ production increases [3] Group 3: Electronics Industry - Strong demand for AI is driving price increases in storage chips and certain passive components, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [5] - The AI sector's growth potential is still underestimated by the market, suggesting investment opportunities in the electronics sector [5] - The electronic sector has seen a decline of 0.51% as of November 10, 2025, reflecting recent market volatility [8] Group 4: Communication Industry - The communication sector remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain, with strong performance reported in overseas companies [6] - The communication sector has also experienced a decline of 0.50% as of November 10, 2025, amidst market fluctuations [8] Group 5: Economic Indicators - October's CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [9] - The PPI turned positive for the first time this year, indicating potential upward pressure on prices in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has continued to rise, reaching 3 as of November 7, up from 2.7 the previous week, indicating further recovery in market sentiment and a generally bullish outlook [1][6] - The trading volume of the entire A-share market slightly decreased this week, with an average daily trading volume of 20,123.50 billion yuan, showing a decline in market activity [1][12] - The industry trend scores have shown significant improvement, with utilities, power equipment, coal, environmental protection, and steel being the strongest short-term trends, particularly utilities with a score of 100 [1][33] Group 2 - The short-term trend scores for the steel industry have rapidly increased, maintaining a dominant position for value and large-cap styles [1][33] - The banking sector also saw a quick rise in short-term trend scores, reinforcing the dominance of value and large-cap styles [1][33] - The model indicates that the overall market and value styles are currently favored, with signals suggesting a potential strengthening of these trends in the future [1][44] Group 3 - The inter-industry trading volatility has risen sharply, indicating increased activity and liquidity in sector switching, with the index breaking through the upper Bollinger band [1][16] - The correlation between funding attention and stock price increases has shown a rebound, suggesting a marginal improvement in short-term market sentiment [1][11] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reflecting an increase in market leverage and a more active trading atmosphere [1][22] Group 4 - The model's overall indicators suggest that the market is currently experiencing a structural shift, with high trading congestion in sectors like power equipment, transportation, and coal, while sectors like computers and food and beverage show lower congestion levels [1][36][40] - The report highlights that high congestion in sectors with significant price increases may pose volatility risks, while low congestion sectors could present opportunities for excess returns if conditions improve [1][36][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking industry congestion to identify potential structural risks and optimize asset allocation strategies [1][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a volatile pattern last week (2025.11.03 - 2025.11.07), with the value style outperforming the growth style. The market is "desensitized" to positive news due to the lack of earnings report data and the intensified high - level volatility of the US AI sector. The style switch is becoming clearer, and the power grid and energy storage industries are attracting funds [3][13][14]. - The new fund issuance is continuously warming up, and "same - day sold - out funds" have reappeared [6]. - The electricity new (E - new) sector is expected to become one of the main market trends, as the energy logic, especially power supply, is hard to be falsified in the short term, and the expectation of green power policies in China is rising [5][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The A - share market was volatile last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.08%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.65%, the CSI Dividend Index rose 2.25%, and the North Exchange 50 Index fell 3.79%. The pro - cyclical sectors such as power equipment, coal, and petrochemicals led the gains, while the computer and pharmaceutical sectors declined. The average daily trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan, down from the previous period [13]. - **Market Features**: The market is "desensitized" to positive news in the fourth quarter. The style switch is clear, and the power grid and energy storage industries are favored. The Shanghai Composite Index may fluctuate around 4000 points, and a fundamental driving force is needed to break through [14]. - **Technology Direction**: In the US, the government's interest - binding with cloud service providers in the AI industry is expected to strengthen. In China, the domestic computing power industry chain is sluggish, and the capital expenditure growth of cloud service providers has slowed down [14]. - **Policy**: On November 7, the State Council issued an implementation opinion focusing on digital - real economy integration, providing long - term policy support for AI, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy industries [15]. - **Power Direction**: The global AI competition is a Sino - US duopoly. China faces challenges in advanced - process chips, while the US has energy infrastructure bottlenecks. The E - new sector is expected to be a market mainstay, with more certain profit realization next year [5][15][16]. 3.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics New fund issuance is warming up, with two funds raising over 3 billion yuan in one day on November 4 [6][18]. 3.3 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Category | Last Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Selection | 0.72% | - 1.06% | 39.20% | 40.33% | | Value Stock Fund Selection | 1.29% | 1.18% | 19.44% | 19.53% | | Balanced Stock Fund Selection | 0.66% | - 1.73% | 32.40% | 29.50% | | Growth Stock Fund Selection | 0.16% | - 3.55% | 52.89% | 39.14% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection | - 4.77% | - 8.16% | 36.20% | 17.99% | | Consumption Stock Fund Selection | - 2.11% | - 5.83% | 12.55% | 5.30% | | Technology Stock Fund Selection | 0.75% | - 3.17% | 48.52% | 50.85% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection | 1.23% | - 0.45% | 38.37% | 31.69% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Selection | - 0.25% | - 4.50% | 25.79% | 16.91% | Each index has its own positioning and performance comparison benchmark. For example, the Active Stock Fund Selection Index selects 15 funds equally weighted, and its benchmark is the CSI Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [19][20].

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has continued to rise, reaching 3 as of November 7, up from 2.7 the previous week, indicating further recovery in market sentiment and a bullish outlook [7][11][19] - The trading volatility between industries has increased rapidly, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting accelerated sector switching and a short-term improvement in sentiment [19][22] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased slightly to 20,123.50 billion yuan, with the highest trading day on November 3 at 21,329.04 billion yuan [14][18] Group 2 - The short-term trend scores for industries such as banking, petrochemicals, light manufacturing, electric equipment, and steel have shown significant upward movement, with utilities currently having the highest short-term score of 100 [38][39] - The crowdedness of capital in sectors like electric equipment, steel, and coal has increased, indicating potential volatility risks due to high valuations and sentiment corrections [40][44] - The model indicates a preference for large-cap and value styles, with signals suggesting that these styles may strengthen in the future [49][56]

Core Viewpoint - The value style continues to show strong performance, with the Guozheng Value 100 Index rising by 1.3% and over 10% since October, driven by economic recovery expectations and dividend premiums [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Guozheng Value 100 Index has achieved a four-day consecutive increase, while the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rose by 1.1% [1] - The value ETF (159263) has seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with an additional net subscription of 35 million units today [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The recent rise in value style is attributed to economic recovery expectations rather than merely a "high to low" market trend [1] - The current non-manufacturing PMI in China has crossed the threshold, indicating potential benefits for traditional value sectors such as home appliances and banking due to demand recovery [1] Group 3: Investment Characteristics - The value index is characterized by high dividends, low valuations, and strong risk resistance, enhancing its allocation value [1] - The Guozheng Value 100 Index employs a three-dimensional screening system focusing on "high dividends + high free cash flow + low price-to-earnings ratio" to select value stocks, demonstrating stable historical performance [1] Group 4: Sector Focus - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index selects based on free cash flow rates, favoring cash-rich value assets, with the top three weighted industries being non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and oil & petrochemicals [1] Group 5: Investment Tools - The value ETF (159263) and the E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with convenient tools to invest in undervalued quality assets and capitalize on style switching opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a stable risk appetite and profit expectations as it enters a macroeconomic event and corporate financial data vacuum period from the end of this year to early next year [1] - The technology sector led the gains in Q3, while the dividend sector experienced an overall pullback; the combination of stable risk appetite, balanced market style, and medium to long-term capital allocation demand is likely to enhance the value of dividend asset allocation [1] Group 2 - In the oil and petrochemical sector, global crude oil supply and demand expectations are stable, with oil prices fluctuating within a range; leading companies possess high dividend yield advantages [1] - In the aviation sector, high passenger load factors, market-driven ticket pricing, and a slowdown in fleet growth are expected to support the continuous rise of industry profitability [1] - Hong Kong bank stocks have recently performed well, with higher dividend yields compared to A-shares; state-owned banks have an overall yield above 5%, making them more attractive to institutions seeking stable cash flow [1] - Tax advantages for insurance companies holding H-shares for over 12 months allow them to exempt corporate income tax on dividend income, further amplifying the appeal of high dividend characteristics [1] - Among A/H listed banks, except for China Merchants Bank, A-shares generally trade at a premium to H-shares, with the premium rate for the four major banks ranging from 23% to 35%, allowing for lower funding costs when allocating to Hong Kong bank stocks [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159117) rose by 1.15%, with the latest price at 1.06 yuan as of November 10, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of -0.1% [1] - The PPI for October decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, better than the market forecast of -2.3%, and showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year [1] - Specific sectors within the petrochemical industry showed varied PPI changes, with oil and gas extraction PPI down 8.4% year-on-year, and petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing down 5.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" is expected to enhance technological innovation and expand new market demands under policy support [2] - Capital expenditure in the chemical sector is nearing completion, with ongoing projects declining for three consecutive quarters, indicating a significant improvement in supply-side conditions [2] - The overall ROE for the petrochemical industry index is projected to slightly recover to 10.1% by Q3 2025, with valuation levels still below the median of the past decade, suggesting attractive investment opportunities [2] Group 3: Related Products - The chemical industry ETF (516570) includes major players in the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors, tracking the China Petrochemical Industry Index [3] - The ETF has shown superior performance compared to comparable chemical industry indices since 2023, with a management and custody fee rate of 0.15% + 0.05% per year, which is significantly lower than similar products [3] - The lower fee structure of the ETF is expected to effectively reduce costs for investors, providing a higher cost-performance ratio for exposure to the petrochemical industry's favorable supply-demand dynamics [3]