Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, China's economic data showed positive trends, with the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 6.4%. High - end manufacturing and digital economy continued to expand, with the added - value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively [2]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities in China declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. Newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May [2]. - Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Economic data: In May, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%, and the fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing showed strong growth [2]. - Housing prices: In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, with new home prices in first - and second - tier cities down 0.2% and first - tier city second - hand home prices down 0.7%. The year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively [2]. - International news: Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - Crude oil: OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - Lithium market: The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on are urea, asphalt, soybean oil, hot - rolled coils, and Shanghai copper [4]. Night - session Performance No specific performance data is clearly described other than the range of possible changes in the provided charts. Sector Performance - Different commodity sectors had different performances, with precious metals having a 30.87% increase, non - metallic building materials 2.50%, and so on [7]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a monthly increase of 1.23%, and an annual increase of 1.10% [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily outlook for various commodities futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity is analyzed based on its fundamentals, macro and industry news, and assigned a trend strength rating [2]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and is expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade weakly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][19]. - **Lead**: Bullish in the medium term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Tin**: Tight supply in the short term but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost - downward trend continues, and lithium prices may remain weak, with a trend strength of 0 [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a short - selling strategy, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of -1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and prices will trade in a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41]. - **Rebar**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Subject to macro - sentiment disturbances, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Wide - range oscillations due to sector - sentiment resonance, with a trend strength of 1 [2][47]. - **Coke**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Stricter safety inspections, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties increase, and the support for the futures price weakens [2][52]. - **PVC**: Short - term oscillations, with downward pressure in the long - term [2][55]. - **Fuel Oil**: Retreated at night, and short - term strength is expected to ease [2][57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weakened in the short - term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly narrowed [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel policy and geopolitical risks are both positive [2][64]. - **Soybean Oil**: The short - term regression of the soybean - palm oil price spread is blocked [2][64]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose overnight, and Dalian soybean meal oscillates [2][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Heilongjiang Province's reserve auction announcement has led to market adjustments and oscillations [2][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68]. - **Sugar**: Started to rebound [2][70]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of external markets [2][71]. - **Eggs**: The elimination of laying hens is accelerating [2][73]. - **Pigs**: Still waiting for spot - market confirmation [2][74]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [2][75]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract shows an oscillating trend, and hold short positions in the 10 contract [2][58]. - **Short - Fiber**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at high levels [2][62]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating [2][63]. - **Log**: Wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59].

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：成本下移趋势延续，锂价或仍偏弱 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高空配思路为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 17 日 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 2）根据钢联，4 月 27 日，中国恩菲 EPC 总承包的印尼 CNI 镍铁 RKEF 一期项目成功产出镍铁，标志 着项目正式进入试生产阶段。CNI 项目位于印尼东南苏拉威西省，生产品位 22%的镍铁，单条线年产金属 镍约 1.25 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For financial futures and options, the overall market is affected by overseas and domestic factors. The stock index futures are expected to continue adjusting in the short - term and move in a range in the medium - term, while the bond futures are expected to be strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures and options, different varieties in the metal and new energy materials sector have different trends. Copper is expected to move in a range, while industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be weak [4][6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Continued adjustment [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and short - sell IM2506 on rallies [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the initial Sino - US trade agreement and the Middle East conflict have mixed impacts; domestically, the fundamental data is weak, and the market lacks a continuous upward main line [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, and long - term bonds are strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Strong [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the Middle East conflict boosts the domestic bond market; in terms of funds, the central bank's operation is beneficial to long - term bonds; fundamentally, the financial data and price levels support the loose expectation [3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78000 - 79100 [4] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a shock - operation strategy [4] - **Core Logic**: Macroscopically, the Israel - Iran conflict affects the market; in terms of supply, the production plan of a copper mine is reduced, while Yunnan Copper's production increases; in terms of demand, the wire and cable and copper rod industries have different trends; in terms of inventory, LME and SHFE have different inventory changes. The Sino - US tariff negotiation results are crucial for the future copper price [4][5] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 7300 - 7400 [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure in the range of 7000 - 8500 [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000 and short - sell futures [6] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [6][7] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Polycrystalline Silicon - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 33000 - 34000 [8] - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation in the range of 30000 - 40000 [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold PS2507 - C - 45000 [8] - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [8][9][10] Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Weak operation in the range of 62000 - 65000 [11] - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price steadily declines in the range of 59000 - 65000 [11] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the sold LC2507 - C - 83000 [11] - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, the supply pressure is large, and the total inventory is at a high level [11]

周内（6月9日至6月13日），国内大宗商品期货涨跌不一，国际地缘政治风险加剧，能源化工与黑色系 板块领涨。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.48%、原油上涨6.64%、碳酸锂下跌1.38%；黑 色系板块，焦炭周上涨0.52%、焦煤上涨1.81%、铁矿石上涨0.28%；基本金属板块，沪锡周上涨 0.51%、沪金上涨0.64%、沪铅下跌0.18%；农产品板块，生猪周上涨0.99%、棕榈油上涨3.49%；航运板 块，集运欧线周上涨2.76%。 交易行情热点 热点一：以伊冲突推高油价，警惕供应风险 随着以伊冲突持续爆发，原油价格出现大幅溢价。布伦特原油本周上涨7.58%，收73.63美元/桶；美原 油上涨7.34%，收71.53美元/桶。 从供应端来看，2024年伊朗石油产量全球占比约3.2%，若冲突影响伊朗产量，将对中国沙特等国家造 成一定供应冲击，近年来美国页岩油产量增速的提升能部分填补缺口，但远期合约价格仍将推高。 根据摩根大通首席大宗商品策略师最新发布的研报，当前油价已至少部分反映了地缘政治风险溢价—— 目前原油价格略高于70美元。这意味着市场已对"最坏情境"给出了7%的概率定价，该情境下 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...