研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 不锈钢产业日报 2026-02-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13735 | 65 03-04月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -105 | -20 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -6580 | -480 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 41399 | -5769 | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 53523 | 5723 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9350 | 0 | | | 基差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 600 | 140 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.14 | ...

寒冬砺剑，方显钢铁本色； 新岁启幕，已闻奋进强音。 浙江大明凭借钢铁般的坚韧与执着， 创下历史 性突破——2025年12月 与2026年1月不锈钢销量连破11000吨， 既为2025年画上了圆满的句点， 更以气 势如虹的姿态迎来新年"开门红"！ 惟其艰难，方显勇毅 近几个月来，不锈钢行业正经历多维度压力考验：上游原料价格剧烈波动，持续挤压产业链利润空间； 下游终端需求分化明显，市场格局更趋复杂。在产能结构调整与环保双控政策深化的双重背景下，行业 竞争愈发激烈，"成本高、交付紧、利润薄" 成为普遍面临的运营挑战。 此外，物流组提前规划多式联运方案，24小时动态追踪在途货物，打通交付"最后一公里"；销售部主动 出击，高频次上门走访客户，量身定制数百份解决方案，同时联动集团各兄弟公司协调产能，成功从单 纯订单执行的角色升级为 "供应链协同 + 技术痛点破解" 的综合服务伙伴。 长风破浪会有时，直挂云帆济沧海。2026新的一年，浙江大明将继续秉持钢铁意志，与产业链伙伴携手 同行、彼此赋能、协同发展，共赴新征程、再攀新高峰！ 供稿 | 浙江大明 面对诸多挑战，浙江大明不锈钢团队凝心聚力、精准破局，锚定行业趋势，明晰发展 ...

镍：节前资金离场冲击，中线矛盾仍在印尼 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 2026 年 2 月 9 日 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 131,840 | -2,590 | -8,160 | -16,170 | -15,880 | 12,090 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,670 | -140 | -470 | -1,055 | -215 | 1,080 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 554,444 | -28,080 | -457,999 | -198,396 | -577,812 | 443,704 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 287,657 | -42,500 | -328,691 | -200,623 | -260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction still lies in Indonesia [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost - support center shifting upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: The industry inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to this week's commodity sentiment [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The industry cost guidance price has been determined [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,840, down 2,590 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 13,670, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 554,444, down 28,080 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 287,657, down 42,500 from T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the nickel ore price formula, adjust the nickel ore production target, and there are issues such as corporate illegal land use and port monopoly in the Indonesian nickel industry [4][5][7]. - **Trend intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 132,920, up 140 from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,706, up 54,982 from T - 1; the open interest was 328,575, down 1,202 from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 1,580, down 9,640 from T - 1 [11]. - **Macro and industry news**: In January 2026, the estimated new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Toyota plans to increase global vehicle production by 10% to about 11.3 million in 2028 and increase hybrid vehicle production by about 30% to 6.7 million [12][14]. - **Trend intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2605 closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 105 from T - 1; the trading volume was 335,419 lots, up 19,855 from T - 1; the open interest was 277,011 lots, up 10,029 from T - 1. The PS2605 closing price was 49,285 yuan/ton, down 265 from T - 1 [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: In 2025, the wind power utilization rate was 94.3%, and the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 94.8%. The photovoltaic power generation utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet were lower than 90% [16]. - **Trend intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 0 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday cooling does not change the upward trend of the bottom. Pre - holiday, the precious metal decline led to a cooling of sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and funds left the market to avoid high - level risks. Although the non - ferrous metals generally declined, there were signs of stabilization on Friday. In the nickel market, there are supply uncertainties in the far - month, and the financial attribute of the non - ferrous sector has increased. For trading, it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and consider light - position long positions after the price stabilizes [6]. - The cost support of nickel ore for subsequent links is emerging, especially for the NPI price. The cost of stainless steel remains firm, but the immediate cost - profit of steel mills is shrinking. After the holiday, if the nickel price stabilizes and inventory reduction is normal, there is still value in going long at a low price [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory at a High Level - Global visible nickel inventory reached 360,000 tons, an increase of 2,080 tons this week. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 2,582 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply, and the premium reached 9,500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slowly Accumulating Before the Festival - Before the festival, the social inventory of stainless steel was slowly accumulating. The inventory of stainless steel plants and the overall inventory - to - sales ratio of the 300 - series need attention. The spot premium and price spread of stainless steel also showed certain trends [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January, refined nickel production reached 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 450,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45% [24]. - **Demand**: In pure nickel consumption, the consumption of electroplating and alloys decreased by 2 - 3% year - on - year. In January, the PMI of the nickel downstream industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloys and other fields was in the off - season and decreased month - on - month [28]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota**: The Indonesian nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia's import of Philippine nickel ore decreased by about 380,000 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of about 63%, and increased by about 110,000 tons year - on - year, a year - on - year increase of about 94.77%. In February 2026, the first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore increased month - on - month [30]. - **NPI**: NPI showed a recovery trend. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia and the import volume of nickel iron in China also had corresponding changes. The profit margins of NPI in different regions also showed different trends [31][32]. - **Chromium - based Products**: The price of chromium - based products turned upward. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, which led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 decreased month - on - month [43]. - **Cold - rolled Hedging Profit on the Futures Market**: On February 6, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes, and the futures market offered cold - rolled hedging profit [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. In February, due to the Spring Festival maintenance, the production schedule decreased significantly. In 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, the same as the previous year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [54]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding was still in the boom cycle, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rate of other terminal fields was not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [56]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7% higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in the recovery period after the expiration of the purchase - tax exemption policy, but the sales volume still achieved positive growth [60]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [65]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: In 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, the ternary precursor production increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the ternary cathode material production increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for sulfuric acid nickel slowed down month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and the price followed the upward trend of refined nickel [67]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur price led to an increase in the cost of MHP, and the price remained firm. The good demand for sulfuric acid nickel boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - In February, the surplus of pure nickel expanded as production recovered [74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the nickel market is experiencing a downward trend, with significant macroeconomic influences affecting prices [1] - As of 15:00 today, the London nickel price is around $16,850 per ton, while the Shanghai nickel main contract closed down by 3,540 to 131,840 yuan per ton [1] - The stainless steel futures main contract also saw a decline, closing down by 135 to 13,670 yuan per ton, indicating a broader trend of falling prices in the futures market [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, some stainless steel traders have exited early, leading to a significant reduction in overall quotations, with prices remaining varied and trading activity quiet [1] - The mainstream quotation for 304 private cold-rolled resources is reported in the range of 13,600-14,100 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled large plate resources are maintained at 13,550-13,850 yuan per ton [1] - For 201 grade products, both cold and hot-rolled prices have decreased, with J1 cold-rolled resources quoted at around 8,200-8,350 yuan per ton and J2/J5 resources at approximately 7,300-7,450 yuan per ton [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 节前需求淡季，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-05日沪镍主力合约2603开于136810元/吨，收于134430元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.11%，当日成交量 为582524（+100958）手，持仓量为93478（-5975）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开低走的弱势震荡态势，日内波动加剧，核心驱动源于供应过剩与节前需求 淡季的双重压制，叠加宏观情绪偏弱，短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。春节临近，不锈钢和新能源电池产业链进入季节 性淡季，下游备货基本结束，采购活动停滞，市场需求淡静，缺乏支撑镍价上涨的动力。美元走强压制大宗商品 价格，隔夜伦镍收跌 0.37%，对沪镍形成联动影响。有色板块整体回调，市场情绪偏谨慎，进一步加剧沪镍下行 压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场延续分化态势。菲律宾矿山招标价格在强劲的采购需求下继续冲高， 而中国国内市场因成本严重倒挂，买方陷入全面观望，交投几近停滞，市场呈现"外热内冷"的鲜明对比。菲律宾 方面，矿山招标价格涨势未止，市场看涨情绪依然浓厚。据市场消息，北方矿山Eramen的1.4% ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, Hubei Daming Stainless Steel achieved a record monthly sales volume of over 13,000 tons, marking a significant milestone despite a challenging market environment characterized by an 8% fluctuation in stainless steel futures prices and intensified competition [1][8] Market Challenges and Responses - The stainless steel market at the beginning of 2026 is facing three major challenges: uneven demand recovery, increased cost volatility, and a restructured competitive landscape. These factors have created significant difficulties in inventory management and pricing strategies for companies [9][12] - The industry is experiencing a compression of profit margins for generic products due to increased competition, while there is a growing demand for customized products in high-end equipment and new energy sectors, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts [9][12] Strategic Initiatives - Hubei Daming is leveraging the group's advantages in regional collaboration and resource sharing to focus on high-end and customized solutions, aiming to provide satisfactory products and services to various industry clients [12][15] - The company has established an efficient coordination mechanism within its production technology department to address the production pressure from increased industry output, optimizing production plans and processes to ensure seamless operations [5][12] - The logistics department has implemented a strategy of "online layout + logistics optimization," which simplifies order flow and shortens delivery cycles, effectively addressing common industry challenges such as slow raw material arrivals and difficulties in finished product shipments [5][12] Collaborative Efforts - The close collaboration and efficient coordination among multiple departments have ensured timely delivery of regular orders and successfully managed several urgent customized orders, which have been crucial in achieving the sales breakthrough [7][15] Future Outlook - Hubei Daming aims to build on this record sales achievement in 2026 by continuing to enhance technological innovation and service upgrades, deepening its focus on niche markets, and expanding its cooperation scope to provide higher quality products and professional services to its customers [15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures both showed upward trends on February 4, 2026, with nickel experiencing a significant rebound and stainless steel showing a milder upward movement. Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies. However, considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 135,400 yuan/ton and closed at 137,680 yuan/ton, a change of 3.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 481,566 (-181,798) lots, and the open interest was 99,453 (-2,047) lots. The contract showed a strong rebound, maintaining a high - level operation with a significant upward shift in the price center. The previous panic - driven decline led to an oversold situation, creating a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the London nickel market, driving the Shanghai nickel rebound through the linkage of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore market showed a differentiated consolidation trend. Affected by the price correction of downstream products, the CIF quotes in the domestic market slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere was dull. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes and mainly executed previous orders. However, due to limited downstream acceptance, high - priced resources had difficulty in trading, and buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a slight increase in the actual bargaining space and a decline in CIF prices. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and the new benchmark price and premium for the first half of February were still in effect. The market was in an adaptation and wait - and - see period for the new price system, with no new policies or trading information to guide, and overall trading activities were calm [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 145,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was poor, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands mostly increased. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 48,072 (-108) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,314 (786) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [3]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [4]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,620 yuan/ton and closed at 13,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 224,029 (+4,598) lots, and the open interest was 59,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a fluctuating upward trend, achieving a recovery driven by Shanghai nickel and cost support. The trading volume moderately increased, and the open interest slightly increased. Overall, it was relatively strong, but the rhythm was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. The previous continuous decline created a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar led to a resonance of domestic and foreign market sentiments, driving the stainless steel rebound [4]. - **Spot**: Trading was light but improved compared to the previous period, and pre - festival restocking orders increased. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+100) yuan/ton, the price in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 310 to 510 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,030.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [5]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [5]. - **Inter - period**: None [5]. - **Inter - variety**: None [5]. - **Futures - spot**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].