证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 躁动行情何时至——策略周聚焦 从量、价、高低切看，本轮指数调整或已到位 11/21 上证指数跌破 MA60，为近半年首次。历史数据显示牛市中跌破 MA60 前 10 日平均跌幅达 5%，跌破后 10 日仅跌 2%，且 30 日内多收复失地。当前 指数自跌破 MA60 仅微跌 1%，显示调整或已到位。量能方面，全 A 成交额与 换手率分别回落至 16962 亿元和 3.19%，低于历史跌破后 10 日均值（测算成 交额 17147 亿元、换手率 3.38%），显示缩量基本完成。此外，行业分化指标 （前 5-后 5 行业涨幅差）从 10/9 的 69pct 高位回落至 11/21 的 47pct，目前已 回升至 60pct，叠加通信、有色、电新等前期领跌板块反弹，高低切或已结束。 当下需重点关注万科债务展期或在短期内加剧地产风险 尽管万科展期暂避违约，但若融资环境恶化，或引发房企信用连锁反应。当下 核心风险在于可能触发金融机构对国有房企的系统性信任危机，影响已超个体 流动性困境，或重塑国企地产信用评估逻辑，并对宏观流动性构成潜在冲击。 本轮春季躁动的启动可能受内外关键事件所驱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current high valuation levels across various industries and indices in the A-share market, indicating potential investment risks due to elevated PE ratios and the Buffett indicator being above the safe zone [1][6][7]. Valuation Levels - The PE valuation (TTM) for steel, coal, electronics, retail, computing, and real estate industries are at historical percentiles of 80.08%, 81.60%, 86.36%, 94.77%, 95.27%, and 97.74% respectively, suggesting caution for investors [8]. - The Buffett indicator for the A-share market stands at 87.95%, which is considered relatively high and above the safe zone [6][22]. - Major broad market indices such as the North Securities 50, Shanghai 50, Shanghai Index, Sci-Tech 50, and China A100 have PE valuations (TTM) at percentiles of 82.85%, 88.31%, 91.89%, 95.53%, and 98.68% respectively, indicating high valuation levels [7]. Industry-Specific Insights - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors have PE valuations (TTM) below the 20th percentile of the past decade, at 3.02% and 13.25% respectively, making them areas of potential interest [8]. - The overall market PE valuation averages around 15.95 times, with the Shanghai market showing a total market capitalization of approximately 628.83 billion [18][25]. Index Valuation Performance - The current PE valuation levels for various indices indicate that most are above 20%, with significant declines noted in some indices such as the ChiNext Index and the Shanghai Composite Index [26][27]. - The PB valuation levels for major indices also reflect a similar trend, with the Shanghai Index at 1.12 and the Shenzhen Component Index at 1.75, both showing a decrease [28][30]. Industry Valuation Levels - The PE valuation levels across various industries show significant variation, with sectors like agriculture, steel, and electronics having valuations of 14.95, 5.69, and 79.76 respectively, indicating differing levels of market confidence [32]. - The PB valuation levels for industries such as steel and electronics are at 0.73 and 1.92 respectively, suggesting a mixed outlook across sectors [36].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.51% to close at 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.78% to 12955.25 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index decreasing by 0.89% to 1308.37 points, and the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.12% to 3036.79 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1442 stocks that rose while 3872 stocks fell, with 137 stocks remaining unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 167 billion yuan, an increase of 765 million yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, transportation, non-ferrous metals, coal, home appliances, and light industry manufacturing showed the highest gains, with increases of 0.69%, 0.63%, 0.57%, 0.30%, and 0.25% respectively. Conversely, the media, computer, real estate, retail, and comprehensive sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.86%, 2.26%, 1.53%, 1.40%, and 1.26% respectively [1][10] - The concept sectors that performed well included cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, industrial metal selection, and others, while sectors like WEB3.0, Baidu platform, and Xiaohongshu platform experienced declines [2][12]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 信用利差低位还能持续多久 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之十一 [Table_Summary] 11 月，信用债收益率普遍上行，高评级品种、3Y 和 10Y 表现相对 较弱。信用利差走势分化，1Y 利差基本持平，3Y 利差走扩 3- 6bp，AA+及以下 5Y 利差则收窄 5-8bp。 信用债买盘力量由强转弱，1 年以内成交占比持续上升。分机构 看，11 月基金净买入信用债规模仍较大，而理财、其他资管产品、 货基净买入信用债规模均同比下降。其中，基金净买入 3-5 年信用 债 208亿元，占比达19%，背后或有摊余债基的配置需求推动，11 月摊余债基封闭期 63 个月、60 个月产品打开规模约 364 亿元。 2025年 7月中旬以来，信用利差整体呈现低位震荡格局。往后看， 信用利差低位还能维持多久、哪些因素可能触发信用利差走扩、信 用利差低位震荡期如何配置，都是市场关心的问题。我们以史为 鉴，以期为信用债投资提供指引。 第二，信用利差低位震荡阶段，各品种表现分化，性价比较高且 ...

Group 1 - The dispute between Hua Shan and Luo Yonghao escalated, with Luo demanding a public apology from Hua by 6 PM on November 26, which was not fulfilled [4] - Hua Shan claimed that Xibei is the pinnacle of the Chinese restaurant industry, emphasizing integrity and sincerity, while accusing others of manipulation [4] - Luo Yonghao threatened to release recordings if Hua did not clarify his statements regarding the alleged manipulation [4] Group 2 - Peng Zhihui was elected as the chairman of Zhi Yuan, with a background in algorithm engineering at OPPO and Huawei [7] - ByteDance denied reports that its Tomato series business would exceed 600 billion yuan in revenue this year, stating the figures were inaccurate [9][10] - Tesla's global supply chain strategy remains consistent across regions, focusing on quality and cost, with over 95% localization for Model 3 and Model Y parts produced in Shanghai [11] Group 3 - The global TV shipment volume declined by 0.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with China's TV shipments dropping by 11.2% due to exhausted government subsidies [28] - Bain predicts that the global humanoid robot market could see annual sales exceed 10 million units by 2035, with a market size reaching 260 billion USD under optimistic scenarios [28] - Apple is expected to surpass Samsung as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer in 2023, with an estimated shipment of 255 million units, a 10% year-on-year increase [28]

天眼查App显示，近日，云南银沙建材有限公司成立，法定代表人为陈银凤，注册资本100万人民币， 经营范围为许可项目：第三类医疗设备租赁；第三类医疗器械经营；药品零售；道路货物运输（不含危 险货物）；房地产开发经营。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营 项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：木材加工；木材销售；建筑用木料及木材组件加 工；竹制品销售；竹制品制造；建筑材料销售；人造板销售；水泥制品销售；电线、电缆经营；建筑用 钢筋产品销售；建筑防水卷材产品销售；再生资源销售；五金产品批发；建筑装饰材料销售；消防器材 销售；金属制品销售；化工产品销售（不含许可类化工产品）；服装辅料销售；日用杂品销售；塑料制 品销售；劳动保护用品销售；特种劳动防护用品销售；针纺织品及原料销售；服装服饰批发；日用品销 售；日用陶瓷制品销售；卫生洁具销售；厨具卫具及日用杂品批发；化妆品批发；安防设备销售；家用 电器销售；智能仪器仪表销售；仪器仪表销售；电子产品销售；计算机软硬件及辅助设备批发；网络设 备销售；移动通信设备销售；医护人员防护用品批发；第二类医疗设备租赁；第一类医疗器械销售；第 一类医疗 ...

截至11月20日，市场最新融资余额为24743.85亿元，较上个交易日环比减少59.39亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有11个行业融资余额增加，通信行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加14.02亿元；融 资余额增加居前的行业还有银行、国防军工、房地产等，融资余额分别增加5.39亿元、4.11亿元、3.44 亿元；融资余额减少的行业有20个，电子、医药生物、计算机等行业融资余额减少较多，分别减少 16.71亿元、9.65亿元、8.40亿元。 | 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 1092.44 | 14.02 | 1.30 | | 银行 | 756.62 | 5.39 | 0.72 | | 国防军工 | 801.65 | 4.11 | 0.52 | | 房地产 | 351.32 | 3.44 | 0.99 | | 煤炭 | 144.31 | 1.75 | 1.23 | | 商贸零售 | 273.61 | 1.49 | 0.55 | | 非银金融 | 1896.57 | 0.94 | 0.05 | ...

Group 1: Digital Economy and Computing Power - Guangdong Province aims to establish a national digital economy innovation development pilot zone by 2027, targeting a digital economy core industry value-added share of over 16% of GDP and an annual compound growth rate of over 15% for the data industry [1] - The AI industry is experiencing strong demand, as evidenced by Nvidia's recent earnings report, which alleviated concerns about an AI bubble [1] - Domestic computing power supply chains are expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with significant capital expenditure increases anticipated from local cloud service providers [1] Group 2: Huawei's AI Technology - Huawei plans to unveil a breakthrough AI technology on November 21, which could increase computing resource utilization from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70%, effectively doubling existing hardware efficiency [2] - This innovation allows for unified scheduling and efficient utilization of various computing hardware, enhancing the domestic AI computing power supply chain's autonomy and ecosystem integration [2] - The technology aims to compete with international leaders in AI hardware and software collaboration, potentially becoming a crucial support for China's AI infrastructure [2] Group 3: Quantum Computing - IBM and Cisco are collaborating on foundational work for distributed quantum computing, aiming to demonstrate a network concept that integrates large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers within five years [3] - This initiative seeks to address fundamental challenges faced by quantum computing networks and aims to connect multiple large-scale quantum computers [3] - Quantum computing is viewed as a transformative technology that could lead to significant advancements across various industries, with a projected market size reaching hundreds of billions by 2030 [4] Group 4: Tungsten Market - Chapter Tungsten Industry announced price increases for tungsten products, with black tungsten concentrate at 328,000 yuan per ton and ammonium paratungstate at 478,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 6% rise from the previous month [5] - The demand for tungsten has surged due to growth in industries like photovoltaics and automotive, while supply constraints have intensified market tensions [5] - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a 6.45% decrease from the previous year, indicating tightening supply [5] Group 5: Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association is set to release guidelines to standardize pricing in the lithium iron phosphate sector, aiming to curb below-cost competition [6] - The lithium iron phosphate battery sector dominates new energy storage, with an expected total shipment of 580 GWh in 2025, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 75% [6] - The industry is anticipated to improve its economic outlook as it combats internal competition and benefits from high demand in energy storage applications [6]

Core Insights - The banking sector experienced the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 2.188 billion, with a price change of 0.86% and a turnover rate of 0.46% [1] - The power equipment sector faced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -9.059 billion, with a price change of -1.96% and a turnover rate of 3.75% [2] Industry Summary - **Banking**: - Net inflow: 2.188 billion - Price change: 0.86% - Turnover rate: 0.46% - Volume change: +61.50% [1] - **Communication**: - Net inflow: 1.000 billion - Price change: 0.51% - Turnover rate: 1.61% - Volume change: +21.14% [1] - **Real Estate**: - Net inflow: 0.219 billion - Price change: 0.33% - Turnover rate: 3.33% - Volume change: +5.34% [1] - **Power Equipment**: - Net outflow: -9.059 billion - Price change: -1.96% - Turnover rate: 3.75% - Volume change: -1.72% [2] - **Machinery Equipment**: - Net outflow: -2.521 billion - Price change: -0.80% - Turnover rate: 2.18% - Volume change: -15.88% [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Net outflow: -3.557 billion - Price change: -0.52% - Turnover rate: 1.99% - Volume change: -3.36% [2] - **Automotive**: - Net outflow: -3.562 billion - Price change: -1.21% - Turnover rate: 1.80% - Volume change: -9.66% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco Great Wall CSI National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (520990) has shown significant growth in both share volume and fund size in 2024, indicating strong investor interest and performance [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on June 26, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of November 18, 2024, the fund's total shares reached 5.43 billion, with a total size of 5.82 billion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund's shares have increased by 44.95%, and its size has grown by 66.17% [1]. Liquidity Analysis - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a total trading volume of 3.91 billion yuan, averaging 195 million yuan per day [1]. - For the year, the ETF has recorded a total trading volume of 28.26 billion yuan over 213 trading days, averaging 133 million yuan per day [1]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with returns of 26.19% and 11.64% respectively during their management periods [2]. Top Holdings - The ETF's major holdings include: - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (10.88%) - China Mobile Limited (10.33%) - China Shenhua Energy Company (9.72%) - CNOOC Limited (9.54%) - COSCO Shipping Holdings (8.43%) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (7.42%) - China Telecom Corporation (4.54%) - China Unicom (3.45%) - China Coal Energy Company (2.59%) - China Resources Land (2.23%) [2][3].