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中泰期货趋势多头
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:17
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend on Thursday, with inflation data basically in line with expectations. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong necessity for an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter [6]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The supply and demand of steel are imbalanced, with weak downstream demand and high inventory in some varieties [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies. Different commodities have different trends and investment strategies [3][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market was in a shrinking volume and oscillating state on Thursday. Inflation data was basically in line with expectations, and fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, while the necessity of increasing monetary policy in the fourth quarter is strong [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [7]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market may oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the inventory of some varieties is high. Iron ore can hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [10][11]. - **Coal and Coke**: The prices of coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the demand of finished products during the "golden nine, silver ten" period [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: From the perspective of supply and demand, silicon alloys are in a medium - long - term short - biased logic, but from the cost - profit perspective, they are in a low - valuation range. Consider buying on dips [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - biased view and wait for the actual progress of new production capacity. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and other factors [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to sell on rallies [18]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak spot trading, and the price may follow the external market [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply increasing and the demand supporting the price [20]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range. Consider selling call options [21]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the progress of the industry meeting [22]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [24]. - **Sugar**: The end - of - season inventory data is bearish, and the supply is expected to increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy with rolling operations [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply and demand of eggs are in a loose state. Adopt a short - biased strategy for near - term contracts and pay attention to spot price changes [27]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [29]. - **Corn**: Consider buying the 07 contract on dips or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the supply pressure and the purchase of state - owned grain depots [29]. - **Jujubes**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Pay attention to the price game between buyers and sellers and the procurement progress [31]. - **Hogs**: Hold short positions in near - term contracts and consider the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. Hold existing short positions and expect price recovery in the future [34]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a loose supply - demand structure [35]. - **Plastic**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for a rebound to go short [36]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile. Wait for a rebound to go long in small quantities [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to the short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the oil price, and the actual demand is weak during the peak season [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply is abundant, and a long - term short - biased view is maintained [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking of ports and spot transactions. Consider buying the 01 contract on dips [45]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to changes in cost and supply [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The fundamentals are not substantially strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate weakly following the cost [42].
新一轮十大行业稳增长方案背后透露哪些信号—— 破局内卷式竞争 构建“智造+”新生态
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-16 22:25
Core Viewpoint - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been launched, focusing on structural optimization and long-term high-quality development while addressing supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Quantitative Goals - The new growth stabilization plan sets specific quantitative targets for various industries, aiming for an average growth rate of around 7% for the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors from 2025 to 2026 [2] - The petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries are expected to achieve an average annual growth rate of 5% [2] - The automotive industry aims for annual sales of approximately 32.3 million vehicles in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of about 3%, including around 15.5 million new energy vehicles, which is a year-on-year increase of about 20% [2] Group 2: Industry Governance - The new growth stabilization plan emphasizes strengthening industry governance and regulating enterprise competition to combat irrational "involution" competition [3][4] - Different industries have tailored governance paths; for instance, the automotive sector focuses on cost investigations and price monitoring, while the electronic information sector aims to guide orderly capacity layout and support self-regulatory mechanisms [4] Group 3: Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a key element in the new plans, with initiatives to integrate AI across all stages of industrial processes [5] - The automotive industry will promote AI applications in research, design, production, and operations, while the light industry will focus on generative AI for product design and manufacturing [5][6] - The integration of AI into these ten key industries is expected to facilitate the digital, networked, and intelligent transformation of traditional sectors [5][6]
新一轮十大行业稳增长方案背后透露哪些信号——破局内卷式竞争 构建“智造+”新生态
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-16 18:57
与上一轮稳增长方案相比,新方案在明确各个行业量化目标的基础上,更加关注结构优化和中长期高质 量发展;在从供需两端发力的同时,更加强调行业治理,旨在进一步规范产业竞争秩序。此外,新一轮 稳增长方案也将人工智能等新技术对各个产业的引领,放在较为突出的位置。 工信部运行监测协调局局长陶青表示,新一轮稳增长方案着力提升优质供给能力,旨在优化行业发展环 境,推动行业实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 目标量化 强调质效并重 2023年,在国内需求收缩、供给冲击、预期减弱的三重压力下,工信部推出十大重点行业稳增长工作方 案,以支撑宏观经济大盘。而此轮稳增长方案涉及的行业,与上一轮保持一致。 时隔两年,新一轮十大重点行业稳增长方案再次启动实施。 9月以来,工业和信息化部陆续发布钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电力装备、轻工 业、电子信息制造业的稳增长方案。 毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟认为,新一轮稳增长方案不仅明确了"量的增长"指标,还比较关注各个 产业的结构优化和中长期高质量发展。 着力整治内卷式竞争 此轮稳增长方案对各个行业的未来增长提出量化目标。2025年—2026年,规模以上计算机、通信和其他 电子设备制造 ...
破局内卷式竞争 构建“智造+”新生态
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-16 18:44
证券时报记者 韩忠楠 时隔两年,新一轮十大重点行业稳增长方案再次启动实施。 9月以来,工业和信息化部陆续发布钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电力装备、轻工业、电子信息 制造业的稳增长方案。 与上一轮稳增长方案相比,新方案在明确各个行业量化目标的基础上,更加关注结构优化和中长期高质量发展; 在从供需两端发力的同时,更加强调行业治理,旨在进一步规范产业竞争秩序。此外,新一轮稳增长方案也将人 工智能等新技术对各个产业的引领,放在较为突出的位置。 毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟认为,新一轮稳增长方案不仅明确了"量的增长"指标,还比较关注各个产业的结 构优化和中长期高质量发展。 着力整治内卷式竞争 新一轮稳增长方案的另一个突出特点就是对加强行业治理、规范企业竞争秩序作了明确部署。 蔡伟表示,近期发布的一系列行业稳增长方案,体现了政策将加大对市场非理性竞争行为的调控力度。 工信部运行监测协调局局长陶青表示,新一轮稳增长方案着力提升优质供给能力,旨在优化行业发展环境,推动 行业实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 目标量化 强调质效并重 2023年,在国内需求收缩、供给冲击、预期减弱的三重压力下,工信部推出十大重点行业 ...
10/16财经夜宵:得知基金净值排名及选基策略,赶紧告知大家
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 16:35
写在文章前的声明:在本文之前的说明:本文中所列的投资信息,只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述,并无主观倾向性,也不是投资建议,纯属 娱乐性质。 16日开放式基金净值增长排名前10的基金分别是:永赢先锋半导体智选混合发起A、永赢先锋半导体智选混合发起C、东方阿尔法科技智选混合发起C、东 方阿尔法科技智选混合发起A、恒越优势精选混合、广发医药创新混合发起式A、广发医药创新混合发起式C、永赢融安混合A、永赢融安混合C、国泰中证 一顿操作猛如虎,目前已有28969只基金更新净值,谁是基金中的王者,谁又垫底,请看数据: 煤炭ETF。 【备注:永赢先锋半导体智选混合发起A 、东方阿尔法科技智选混合发起C都是2025年9月12日刚成立的主题基金,只知道是半导体行业相关,但没有具体 的仓位公示,所以无法分析,这里略过】 16日开放式基金净值增长排名后10的基金分别是:华富天鑫灵活配置混合C、华富天鑫灵活配置混合A、汇添富北交所创新精选两年定开混合C、汇添富北 交所创新精选两年定开混合A、前海开源沪港深核心资源混合C、前海开源沪港深核心资源混合A、嘉实中证稀土产业ETF、华泰柏瑞中证稀土产业ETF、易 方达中证稀土产业E ...
港股开盘丨恒指跌0.08% 三花智控低开近5%
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 09:29
Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.08% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.14% [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks generally experienced a pullback, while technology stocks showed mixed performance [1] Sector Movements - The non-ferrous metals sector followed the upward trend in futures, with China Silver Group rising over 2% [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control opened nearly 5% lower after clarifying that reports of receiving a large order for robots were false [1]
收评:沪指震荡微涨,保险、银行等板块拉升,存储芯片等活跃
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-16 08:03
Group 1 - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations but ended with mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1% to 3916.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13086.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% to 3037.44 points [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market decreased to below 2 trillion yuan, with a combined turnover of 194.89 billion yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets [1] - Sectors such as engineering machinery, steel, non-ferrous metals, gas, and chemicals saw declines, while coal, insurance, and banking sectors showed strong gains, indicating sector rotation within the market [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities noted that after market fluctuations, the medium-term core trend of A-shares remains unchanged, with limited impact from short-term external shocks, and an upward trend is expected as the index stabilizes around 4000 points [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the large technology sector, suggesting that investors should increase their allocation to self-controlled sectors due to potential disturbances from the US-China competition affecting companies with overseas assets [2] - The cyclical sectors are still showing good prosperity, with military, pharmaceutical, and new energy industries recommended for continued focus, while high-dividend stocks have become more attractive following a round of adjustments [2]
汽车下游充电服务扩张
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 03:31
宏观日报 | 2025-10-16 汽车下游充电服务扩张 中观事件总览 生产行业:1)10月15日下午,国家发展改革委官网显示,国家发展改革委、国家能源局、工业和信息化部等六部 门发布关于印发《电动汽车充电设施服务能力"三年倍增"行动方案(2025—2027年)》。方案提到,到2027年底, 在全国范围内建成2800万个充电设施,提供超3亿千瓦的公共充电容量,满足超过8000万辆电动汽车充电需求,实 现充电服务能力的翻倍增长。 服务行业: 1)15日,人民银行公布9月金融数据。数据显示,2025年9月末社会融资规模存量为437.08万亿元,同 比增长8.7%。其中,对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为267.03万亿元,同比增长6.4%。值得关注的是,2025年 前三季度,社会融资规模增量强劲,累计为30.09万亿元,同比多增4.42万亿元。9月末,广义货币(M2)余额335.38 万亿元,同比增长8.4%。9月末,人民币贷款余额270.39万亿元,同比增长6.6% 数据来源:iFind,华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期,全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页 ...
三花智控低开近5%
第一财经· 2025-10-16 01:40
10月16日早盘,恒指跌0.08%,恒生科技指数跌0.14%。医药股普遍回调,科网股分化;有色行业 跟进期货涨势,中国白银集团涨超2%。三花智控低开近5%,澄清公司获得机器人大额订单为不实消 息。 ...
滚动更新丨A股三大股指集体低开,充电桩、智能电网等板块走强
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 01:40
盘面上,充电桩板块高开,京泉华、奥特迅涨停;医药、军工、光伏板块表现活跃。 09:27 充电桩概念股高开,京泉华、奥特迅涨停,和顺电气涨超10%,通达股份、盛弘股份、国电南自 等跟涨,消息面上,《电动汽车充电设施服务能力"三年倍增"行动方案(2025—2027年)》印发,到2027 年底,在全国范围内建成2800万个充电设施。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大股指集体低开 上证指数跌0.29%,深成指跌0.42%,创业板指跌0.58%。盘面上,充电桩板块高开,京泉华、奥特迅涨 停;医药、军工、光伏板块表现活跃;机器人概念回调,三花智控低开近5%;稀土、培育钻、EDA概 念普遍下跌。天普股份复牌一字跌停,此前连续15日涨停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | N | 3900.68 c | -11.53 | -0.29% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 21 | 13064.26 c | -54.50 | -0.42% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | N | ...