Group 1 - The A-share market experienced high volatility with increased trading volume, driven by policy support and mid-term performance catalysts, particularly in real estate, agriculture, and power equipment sectors [1] - The ChiNext index showed strong performance, with average daily trading volume rising to 2.98 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - The market style favored growth sectors over cyclical, consumer, and financial sectors, with technology growth leading the gains [1] Group 2 - Jin Ying Fund suggests focusing on sectors with potential for future profit improvement, including technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and non-ferrous metals [2] - In the technology sector, AI is at a high emotional trading point, with both domestic and overseas developments being encouraged, particularly in AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes [2] - The military industry may see rotation opportunities due to upcoming events like the September 3 military parade and the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 3 - As the market strengthens, non-bank financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are expected to see improvements in both valuation and performance [2] - With expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a dual easing of overseas monetary and fiscal policies by 2026, sectors benefiting from external demand, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals, may present investment opportunities [2] - The focus on policy-driven industries like photovoltaics is anticipated to strengthen in the future, reflecting a shift away from internal competition [2]

高切低思路下，重点关注：大消费、新能源、非银、创新药、TMT、有色、卫星互联网。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经上海9月1日电中信建投证券研报分析认为，月线级别，上证指数已走出四连阳加速，最高到 3888点。短期指数横盘震荡的可能性更大，3766附近的支撑较为牢固，指数在3800附近窄幅震荡的可能 性较大，而长期的上涨趋势并未改变。在美元走弱+美债美元脱钩的背景下，新兴市场吸引力增强，同 时随着两融、居民存款搬家与北上资金的持续流入，也为后续进一步上涨提供有利条件。 当前市场交易情绪已进入过热阶段，抱团倾向愈发明显，需注意交易结构恶化。总体来看，TMT板块 拥挤度虽未见顶，但已接近预警线，市场交易结构恶化需要重视，消费、周期等低热度板块可能在下一 阶段的行情中拥有更高性价比。 中报看，2025年上半年营收及净利同比转正，盈利周期拐点清晰，企业步入温和复苏通道，市场资金从 避险逐步转向攻守兼备，青睐稳健型与成长性资产。现金流与费用率改善，企业韧性加强，ROE底部企 稳但结构分化，需求不足制约资产效率。分行业来看，科技制造板块盈利亮眼，周期板块内部存在分 化，消费板块等待营收利好向盈利传导。新旧动能加速切换，扩 ...

1日早盘，三大股指盘中震荡上扬，创业板指一度大涨约2%，临近午盘涨幅有所收窄，场内超3100股飘 红。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.12%报3862.65点，深证成指涨0.11%，创业板指涨0.55%，科创50指数涨 0.71%，沪深北三市合计成交18467亿元。 盘面上看，保险、券商、银行、军工等板块疲弱，有色、医药、半导体、零售、传媒等板块走强，黄金 概念、创新药概念等活跃。 中信建投证券表示，当前市场交易情绪已进入过热阶段，抱团倾向愈发明显，需注意交易结构恶化。总 体来看，TMT板块拥挤度虽未见顶，但已接近预警线，市场交易结构恶化需要重视，消费、周期等低 热度板块可能在下一阶段的行情中拥有更高性价比。2025年上半年营收及净利同比转正，盈利周期拐点 清晰，企业步入温和复苏通道，市场资金从避险逐步转向攻守兼备，青睐稳健型与成长性资产。长期趋 势仍未改变，最优的策略是切入低估值消费与周期板块，如大消费、有色、新能源等。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

中信证券：9月的几个配置线索 我们重点分析了9月值得关注的重点事件和配置线索。第一，美联储可能的降息有望强化弱美元的 环境，这将对原本就持续处于强势的资源品产生新一轮催化，尤其是贵金属和铜，可能再度加速有色板 块的行情。 展望下一阶段，短期预计市场在偏高中枢运行，经历前期上涨行情后，市场或将阶段性呈现震荡整 固特点。但当前市场成交维持活跃，资金面持续驱动叠加政策预期升温，为市场行情提供支撑。同时， 外部环境相对平稳，美联储9月降息预期较高，全球资本流向重塑利好权益市场。A股向上趋势不改， 市场热点仍将处于轮动状态，关注结构性配置机会。 第二，随着苹果和META在9月发布会的陆续召开，苹果的端侧AI、META的AR眼镜可能会带来新 一轮更可持续的端侧设备和端侧AI生态产业趋势，接力当下热炒的云测AI，消费电子板块尤其是果链 值得关注。 第三，"反内卷"会逐步隐现出三条线索，一是过去2年资本开支强度大且有边际缩减迹象的行业； 二是已经出现行业自律/政策落地迹象的行业；三是供给在内"反内卷"、需求在外出利润，依靠配额持 续提升利润率的行业。 第四，9月创新药催化事件料将明显增多，同时近期的科技切换也出清了此前囤积在 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京9月1日电（罗浩）沪深两市三大股指9月1日早间普遍高开，各股指早盘期间经历两次震荡 下探后波动上扬，午间收盘前有所回落，至午间收盘时沪指及深成指小幅上涨。 板块方面，贵金属、半导体、通信设备板块在开盘时涨幅居前。黄金、有色、旅游、医药等板块在盘初 持续上扬，固态电池、造纸、房地产、风沙治理等板块在盘中拉升，CPO概念、芯片等科技类核心资产 在上午11时后有进一步攀升。早盘期间，黄金、有色、CRO概念整体涨幅靠前，保险、航空、证券板 块跌幅相对靠前。 至午间收盘时，上证指数报3862.65点，涨幅0.12%，成交额约8051亿元；深证成指报12710.25点，涨幅 0.11%，成交额约10235亿元；创业板指报2906.03点，涨幅0.55%，成交额约4761亿元；科创综指报 1619.43点，涨幅1.02%，成交额约2058亿元；北证50指数报1562.21点，跌幅0.76%，成交额约181亿 元。 机构观点 中信建投：TMT板块拥挤度虽未见顶，但已接近预警线，市场交易结构恶化需要重视，消费、周期等 低热度板块可能在下一阶段的行情中拥有更高性价比。25H1营收及净利同比转正，盈利周 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is mainly based on shock, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. For treasury bond futures, conservative strategies can continue to focus on the curve steepening strategy, while aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short term [13][14]. - For black commodities, the short - term price of steel and ore may adjust, and the medium - term will maintain a shock market. The price of coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For ferroalloys, pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of the ferrosilicon 10 - contract, and maintain the medium - and long - term idea of short - selling on rebounds for manganese silicon [18][20][21]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, the price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of alumina is expected to decline with shocks, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The price of lithium carbonate will mainly operate in a wide - range shock without new drivers. The price of industrial silicon will operate in a shock, and the price of polysilicon will also operate in a wide - range shock [25][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the price of cotton will follow the macro and external cotton market fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on rallies in the long term. The price of sugar is expected to be under pressure due to increased supply, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term. The price of eggs may not reverse in the short term, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait and see. The price of apples can consider buying on dips or using a long - 10 short - 01 positive spread combination. The price of corn can consider shorting the 01 - contract on rallies or using an 11 - 1 positive spread. It is recommended to wait and see for jujubes. For live pigs, short on rallies for near - month contracts and consider long - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract [29][30][33]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil will operate in a strong shock in the short term and is expected to be weak in the medium and long term. The price of fuel oil will follow the price of crude oil. The price of plastics will be weak in a shock. It is advisable to pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of rubber on dips. The price of methanol will continue to be weak in a shock. The price of caustic soda will be strong, and a long - buying idea should be maintained. The price of asphalt will follow the price of crude oil. For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a PX positive spread opportunity. The price of liquefied petroleum gas will follow the price of crude oil and is expected to be bearish in the long term. The price of pulp rebounds after hitting the bottom, and it is recommended to observe. The price of logs is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to observe. The price of urea will operate in a strong shock in the short term. The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are gradually improving, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [39][40][46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [10]. - From January to July, the total operating income of national state - owned and state - holding enterprises was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [10]. - Chinese official Li Chenggang visited the US and held talks with relevant US officials [10]. - In the first half of the year, Central Huijin "stood still" in ETF investments, and it spent over 210 billion yuan on increasing its holdings of 12 ETF products. By the end of the second quarter, the total market value of ETFs held by two companies reached 1.28 trillion yuan, accounting for about 30% of the total ETF scale [10]. - The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Macron stated that France and Germany are determined to jointly defend the EU's legislative and digital sovereignty [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is mainly based on shock, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. The A - share market had a good performance on Friday, but the manufacturing industry is still below the prosperity level. The stock market accelerated after continuous rises in August, and the index showed differentiation. There is a possibility of rhythm adjustment for stock index futures [13]. Treasury Bond Futures - Conservative strategies can continue to focus on the curve steepening strategy, and aggressive strategies can consider buying on dips in the short term. The PMI data in August stabilized after a rapid decline. The stock index and long - term bonds showed a strong negative correlation. The key contradiction in the bond market lies in the stock index [14]. Black Commodities Steel and Ore - The short - term price may adjust, and the medium - term will maintain a shock market. The implementation of relevant policies has limited impact on the supply of steel products. The real demand in the downstream of steel is limited, and there may be a situation of "no peak season in the peak season". The supply is expected to remain strong, and the cost and profit are affected by the price of raw materials [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the capital game is intense. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short term, and the demand from steel mills provides support, but there is also downward pressure [20]. Ferroalloys - Pay attention to the long - buying opportunity of the ferrosilicon 10 - contract. For manganese silicon, maintain the medium - and long - term idea of short - selling on rebounds. The current supply of both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is in an oversupply situation [21][22]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies, and leave the market flexibly if a positive feedback atmosphere emerges. For glass, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply of soda ash may increase, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is stable. The inventory pressure of glass has been relieved, but there is potential pressure on upstream shipments [23]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of alumina is expected to decline with shocks, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The demand for aluminum is weak, and the supply of alumina is in excess [25]. Lithium Carbonate - Without new drivers, the price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. In September, the demand is in the peak season, and there may be inventory reduction, which will support the price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The price of industrial silicon will operate in a shock, and the key lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers in Xinjiang. The price of polysilicon will operate in a wide - range shock, and policy expectations will affect the price [27][28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the supply is low while the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be bearish on rallies in the long term. The price is affected by the international cotton price and macro factors. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but the downstream demand is weak [29]. Sugar - The import volume has increased significantly, and the short - term supply - demand relationship is relatively loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term and pay attention to the support at the low point in mid - August. The international and domestic sugar markets are affected by multiple factors such as production and demand [30][31]. Eggs - The 10 - contract is a post - festival contract, and there is a game between weak reality and the expectation of concentrated culling of old hens. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and wait and see, and be cautious when buying at the bottom. The current supply pressure is high, but the futures position has reached a new high [33]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or using a long - 10 short - 01 positive spread combination. The price of early - maturing apples is high - quality and high - price, and the price of stored apples is relatively stable. The new - season Fuji apple price will be affected by early - maturing and old - season apples [35]. Corn - Consider shorting the 01 - contract on rallies or using an 11 - 1 positive spread. The domestic corn price is weak, and the supply and demand are under pressure. The policy grain supply and substitutes affect the demand, and the downstream processing demand is weak [35][36]. Jujubes - It is recommended to wait and see. The local rainfall in Xinjiang may affect the quality of jujubes, and the transaction price in the production area is stable [37]. Live Pigs - Short on rallies for near - month contracts and consider long - buying opportunities for the 01 - contract. The supply pressure in August was high, and it may continue in September. The demand is gradually recovering, but it is difficult to reverse the situation of "strong supply and weak demand" [37][38]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The price will operate in a strong shock in the short term and is expected to be weak in the medium and long term. The negotiation between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will take a long time, and the inventory data shows that the peak - season demand is approaching the end. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine event and the OPEC+ meeting [39]. Fuel Oil - The price will follow the price of crude oil. The future focus is on whether the price reflects the expected supply - demand surplus or geopolitical and macro factors. The supply of fuel oil is affected by domestic refinery demand and inventory [39][40]. Plastics - The supply pressure is relatively large, and it is expected to be weak in a shock. The positive sentiment from the elimination of backward production capacity has faded, and the supply is high while the demand is weak [40]. Rubber - Pay attention to the long - buying opportunity on dips, and be cautious when chasing high. The short - term fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the raw material price and demand affect the price [40][41]. Methanol - The price will continue to be weak in a shock. The port inventory is increasing, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The spot price is weakening [42]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is strong, and a long - buying idea should be maintained. The transportation restriction has been lifted, and the demand is expected to increase. The futures price is also strong [43]. Asphalt - The price will follow the price of crude oil. The asphalt fundamentals are stable, and the price is affected by the international oil price [43][44]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a PX positive spread opportunity. The industry is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price follows the crude oil price and is affected by the import volume. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the long term [47]. Pulp - The fundamentals are unchanged, and the price rebounds after hitting the bottom. Observe whether the port inventory continues to decline and the spot transaction and demand after Chenming's resumption of production [48]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a shock state, and the spot price is stable. The supply may face pressure, but the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [48]. Urea - The short - term export is optimistic, and the futures price will operate in a strong shock. The spot price is stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The factory maintenance is increasing, and the daily output is below 190,000 tons [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are gradually improving, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. The industry chain has no obvious contradictions, and the price is affected by raw materials and demand [50].

Q&A 如何看待中国股市在未来一段时间内的表现？ 我们坚定认为中国股市不会止步于当前水平，预计市场将继续走高，并有望突 破 4,000 点。我们建议增加对中盘股和低位蓝筹股的配置比例，这些股票可能 成为下一阶段市场上升的重要力量。行情将出现扩散，但不会发生风格切换。 随着宽松预期和经济能见度的提高，新兴科技仍是主线，而周期金融则可能成 为黑马。此外，AI 应用侧、周期股和中字头股票也值得关注。 中国市场看多的逻辑是什么？ 我们对中国市场看多的逻辑主要基于以下三点：首先，中国转型进展明显加快， 特别是在集成电路、人工智能、创新药和国防军工等领域。这些新产业的发展 降低了社会发展的不确定性。其次，无风险收益系统性下沉，使长期资本和家 庭部门入市成为历史性趋势。今年 4 月以来，我们一直强调这一逻辑，现在各 周期论剑｜布局周期的确定性 20250831 摘要 中国转型加速，集成电路、人工智能等新兴产业降低不确定性；无风险 收益下沉，长期资本入市成趋势；资本市场改革推动价值观念转变，三 因素耦合或形成至少两年牛市。 监管层或维持当前上升势头，实质性干预可能性小；美联储降息概率增 加，中国央行宽松空间打开，可能重启国债 ...

｜2025年9月1日星期一｜ NO.1中信建投：长期趋势仍未改变，最优的策略是切入低估值消费与周期板块 中信建投指出，当前市场交易情绪已进入过热阶段，抱团倾向愈发明显，需注意交易结构恶化。总体来 看，TMT板块拥挤度虽未见顶，但已接近预警线，市场交易结构恶化需要重视，消费、周期等低热度 板块可能在下一阶段的行情中拥有更高性价比。2025上半年营收及净利同比转正，盈利周期拐点清晰， 企业步入温和复苏通道，市场资金从避险逐步转向攻守兼备，青睐稳健型与成长性资产。长期趋势仍未 改变，最优的策略是切入低估值消费与周期板块，如大消费、有色、新能源等。重点关注：大消费、新 能源、非银、创新药、TMT、有色、卫星互联网。 NO.2银河证券：A股下一阶段大概率将延续震荡上行走势但需关注短期波动风险 中国银河证券研报称，A股下一阶段大概率将延续震荡上行的走势，但需关注短期波动风险。未来关注 方向：短期关注补涨机会。中长期聚焦三条主线，一是供需格局改善与行业盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概 念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资产，配置逻辑依然清晰。二是内需消费方向：政策呵护下的大消费 领域具备投资价值，建议关注服务消费领域低估值标的。三是 ...

第四，9月创新药催化事件料将明显增多，同时近期的科技切换也出清了此前囤积在板块当中追逐趋势的短钱，创新药在 此轮调整后有望继续上行。配置上，9月建议继续聚焦资源、创新药、消费电子、化工、游戏和军工。 国泰海通：未来股指还会有新高 随着上证指数站上3800点创下十年新高，市场分歧和疑虑也随之增加。我们认为，中国股市不会止步于此，股指还有新 高。2025年以来，我们看多中国的逻辑是一贯的：第一，中国转型进展加快，经济社会发展的不确定性下降。第二，无 风险利率下沉，长期资本和居民入市进入历史性转折与时代趋势。第三，资本市场改革，社会各界对中国资产的价值观 念和风险认识因此而系统性改观，打开了资本市场发展的空间。 市场也不必过虑阶段性调整，首先两融规模/流通市值处于历史均值，两市整体估值水平不高，多数权重股价在低位，总 体并未显示过热。其次，美联储9月降息概率上升，或为中国央行宽松与重启国债交易提供契机；增量经济支持举措有望 出台。因此中国股市上升的动力是健康的，是可持续的，继续看升中国A/H表现。综合来看，随着市场参与者和投资逻辑 的多元化，行情不会仅仅局限于小市值，未来有望出现扩散，滞涨且盈利质量更好的中盘股或低 ...

每周 一 景： 新疆天山独库公路库车大峡谷 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 加关税：影响了多少美国通胀 关税政策：税率加了多少？ 6 月美国实际平均进口税率仅较 2024 年底上升 6.6 个百分点，明显不及市场预期。美国进口结构的变化以及应税商品占比明显 偏低或是关税征收力度不及预期的主要原因。下半年来看，随着新关税税率的实施以及行业关税的逐渐落地，美国实际进口平均税率或将进一步抬升。不过， 仍需关注美国与其他国家的贸易谈判中被豁免的商品占比是否持续上升。 海外出口商：是否降价换量？ 美国进口价格指数基于进口商支付的美元价格统计，不包含关税，因此可以用其来观察包含汇率影响的美国进口成本的变化。 4 月对等关税落地以来，除进口能源与食品外，美国其他商品进口价格指数无明显回落。考虑到 2025 年以来美元持续走弱，海外出口商可能有一定幅度的降 价，但降价幅度或被美元走弱所抵消。总体来看美国进口成本并无明显回落，关税成本仍然主要由美国企业和消费者承担。 美国企业：或承担了大部分关税。 目前企业关税成本的传导进展仍然偏慢。截至 6 月美国企业端或仍承担 63% 左右的关税，消费者承担比例不到 40% 。 下半 ...