Core Viewpoint - The ongoing US-Japan tariff negotiations are critical, with Japan pushing for the complete removal of tariffs while the US remains resistant. The recent phone call between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Trump has introduced new dynamics into the discussions, particularly regarding investment and economic security [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has consistently requested the full cancellation of tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, but the US has not agreed to this demand [1]. - The third round of tariff negotiations, held on May 23, continued the previous discussions' tone, with Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari stating that the exchanges were more candid and in-depth than before [1][2]. - A new round of negotiations is scheduled for May 30 in Washington, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [1]. Group 2: Strategic Discussions - The phone call between Ishiba and Trump covered several key topics, including plans for a face-to-face meeting during the G7 summit, economic security-related tariff negotiations, and potential Japanese procurement of US fighter jets [2]. - Japan is considering establishing a "Japan-US Shipbuilding Fund" to revitalize its shipbuilding industry, which could enhance cooperation in sectors deemed critical to national security by the US [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's recent Middle East trip resulted in approximately $2 trillion in investment agreements, which he communicated to Ishiba, aiming to encourage Japan to increase its investments in the US [2]. - Japan has already invested significantly in US manufacturing, but further investments are seen as necessary under Trump's "revitalize American manufacturing" agenda [2]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - The situation with the EU serves as a cautionary tale for Japan, as delays in trade negotiations have led to threats of increased tariffs from the US [3]. - The outcome of the G7 summit, particularly regarding breakthroughs in automotive and steel tariffs, could have substantial implications for related industries in Japan [3].

自2025年关税风波以来，美联储一直被架在火上烤。一边是难以下降的通胀数据，一边是关税问题引起的市场动荡，是否降息成为一个两难的选择。 文丨陈杰瑞（Jerry Chen） 编辑丨吴海珊 当地时间5月21日，美国市场再现"股债汇三杀"，美债收益率飙升，股市大跌，美元指数跌破100。 关于美联储最新的消息是，5月22日一位美联储理事表示，如果特朗普政府对美国贸易伙伴征收的关税维持在约10%的水平，美联储可能在2025年下半年开 始降息。 长久以来的债务问题在关税风波中终于完全暴露。最终，或许又只能是美联储站出来"承担所有"。 机构表示在美债风波真正平息之前，远离美元资产似乎是较为合理的选择，市场或许会再次转向黄金、日元、瑞郎，又或者像巴菲特那样持币观望。 美债市场持续面临压力，5月22日的20年期美债拍卖疲软，导致美国再现股、债、汇三杀的局面。 美股结束了7天连涨，5月22日标普500指数大跌近1.6%，美元指数跌破100大关，10年美债收益率突破4.5%，30年美债收益率则突破了5%大关。今年有天量 美债到期、特朗普本周将推动减税议程、关税大战下美元资产引力受损等因素共振，促成了当前美债长端收益率易上难下的格局 ...

Sessionid:rjqpwdg0e5iajcya2jwtr55y ECONOMICS 23 May 2025 Week Ahead in Economics Tariff man strikes again From On Our Minds Europe ECB preview: hawks turn to favour 'looking through' China: Demand spillovers larger than tariff damage Latin America LatAm central banks likely to consider the recent rise in core inflation as transitory Just when markets believed the worst of the tariff battle had been overcome, President Trump threatened a 50% tariff against the EU this week, starting on 1 June, and a possible ...

【解剖大盘】 港股从4月9日开始一直都处于上升势头，到月底感觉有点疲态，今天恒指跌1.35%。 23日，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，他建议从6月1日开始对来自欧盟的商品征收50%的关税。他表示，欧 盟成立的主要目的就是"在贸易上占美国的便宜"，美国与欧盟的谈判"毫无进展"。然而到了周日，在与 欧洲执行委员会主席冯德莱恩通话后，特朗普又突然改口，决定将关税实施日期延后至7月9日，为双方 争取更多谈判时间。美国很急，因为迄今为止只和英国达成了协议，因此想逼迫欧洲尽快就范，而欧洲 当然希望拖延时间寻找对策，比如马克龙开始密集访问东南亚三国，期待能找到摆脱美国制衡的新方 向。 除了欧洲，日本也是美国重点要签协议的国家，日美进行第三轮关税谈判之际，特朗普发布了一则日美 钢铁企业巨头合作的消息。他支持日本收购美国钢铁，日本首相石破茂周日也给出了态度：计划拿 LNG项目+造船技术换美国关税让步。日方力争6月中达成协议。 日本在全球造船业中排名第三，仅次于中国和韩国。2024年，日本新船成交相对低迷，全年共计成交 233艘、1123.2万载重吨、358.3万修正总吨，以载重吨和修正总吨计分别同比下降46%和47%，仅分别 占全球 ...

南财早新闻，早听早知道。 第二十一届中国（深圳）国际文化产业博览交易会于5月22日至26日在深圳国际会展中心举行。还将现 场发布重磅"政策包"，为6大领域分别制定引导扶持政策，推动新一轮文化产业高质量发展。 1、金融监管总局等八部门联合印发《支持小微企业融资的若干措施》提出，加大首贷、信用贷、中长 期贷、法人类贷款、民营类贷款投放。指导银行加强贷款利率定价管理，合理确定小微企业贷款利率。 降低贷款附加费用，指导银行清理违规收费，规范与第三方合作。 2、央视新闻：欧盟表示将对进入欧盟的小包裹收取手续费，外交部回应称，中方始终认为营造一个开 放包容的国际贸易环境符合各方的共同利益，我们希望欧方能够恪守开放的承诺，为中国企业提供公平 透明非歧视的营商环境，为中欧经贸合作创造有利条件。 3、中国与东盟十国全面完成中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判，包含数字经济、绿色经济、供应链互联互 通、标准技术法规与合格评定程序、海关程序与贸易便利化、卫生与植物卫生措施、竞争和消费者保 护、中小微企业、经济技术合作等9个新增章节。 4、5月21日国际金价出现回升，国内金店金饰价格再次突破千元关口。周大福、周六福足金饰品价格上 涨至100 ...

金十数据5月16日讯，日本已发出信号，准备与美国总统唐特朗普在贸易关税问题上达成更好的协议， 而不是冒着国内政治反弹的风险达成协议。日本渴望避免与华盛顿的关系出现任何恶化，而日本首相石 破茂最初把先于其他国家进入美国谈判桌作为优先事项。但官员和分析师表示，商界领袖和石破茂所在 的自民党成员要求他拒绝任何危及汽车业或威胁国内农民的协议，这迫使他重新思考。"尽管日本非常 渴望成为第一个与华盛顿就关税问题展开谈判的国家，但 这种紧迫感现在已经转变，重点是确保日本 得到一份好协议，"一名日本官员表示。 官员们表示，目前不太可能在日本参议院选举前达成协议。日 本参议院选举将于7月底举行，预计对极不受欢迎的石破茂政府来说，这将是一大考验。 （英国金融时 报） 日本或无法在7月底之前与美国达成贸易协议 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...

美联储主席鲍威尔在演讲中表示，随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高。他警告称："我们 可能正在进入一个供应冲击更频繁、可能更持久的时期——这对经济和央行来说都是一个艰巨的挑 战。"美联储将重新审视政策框架。 美国与卡塔尔签署超2435亿美元经济及军事合作协议。卡塔尔投资局计划在未来十年内向美国追加5000 亿美元的投资。 特朗普：希望苹果停止将iPhone产业转移到印度。 李强：把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 美股方面，三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.65%，标普500指数涨0.41%，纳指跌0.18%。 大型科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、Meta跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%，苹果、英伟达、谷歌小幅下跌；奈飞涨 超2%，微软、英特尔小幅上涨。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.37%。网易大涨超14%，股价逼近历史新高；向上 融科跌超8%，阿里巴巴、文远知行跌逾7%，富途控股跌超5%，京东、百度、蔚来跌逾3%。 | | | 隔夜美股概览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 道琼斯 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-15 金融数据向好，支持实体经济 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制，推动市场情绪显著回暖。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025 年5月14日12时01分起，对美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]