以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 本周市场超跌反弹，但仍在我们推演的"牛市两段论"格局之内。牛市1.0已处于高位区域，AI产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束 + 中小波段有波折 + 大波段性价比阶段性不足"。这神似2014年初的创业板、2018年初的食品饮料、2021年初的新能源。季度级别的高位震荡后，"怀疑牛市级别"的 调整正在演绎，消化性价比问题。 参考历史经验，当前科技成长调整幅度已过半，但调整时间仍不足。科技调整到牛熊分界线附近，可能就是中期底部区域，目前进程已过半。但 时间到位难度更大，关键是等待产业催化累积和业绩验证消化估值。长期性价比修复到历史中位，可能就是上行趋势重启的节点。这通常需要回 调消化估值和业绩消化估值效果叠加。所以，调整幅度到位后，可能还有一个震荡磨底的阶段。 调整和磨底后，有牛市2.0的判断不变。"牛市两段论"是A股牛市周期的典型特征，2013年结构牛，2015年全面牛，2016-17年结构牛，2020-21年 全面牛，中间都有休整蓄力阶段。当前只是25年结构牛高位区域，26年中，基本面周期性改善 + 科技产业趋势新阶段 + 居民资产配置向权益迁 移 + 中国影响力提升共 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 一、本周市场超跌反弹，但科技成长消化性价比问题的调整，幅度已过半、时间仍不足。 调整幅度时间的历史经验：科技调整到牛熊分界线附近，就是中期底部区域，但 可能出现"幅度到位，时间不足"。时间上，关键是等待产业催化和业绩验证消化估值，长期性价比修复到历史中位，可能就是上行趋势重启的节点。 二、春季行情的级别和定位：进攻资产(科技和顺周期)有效反弹容易出现，但向上突破逻辑难兑现，春季行情上限不高。 春季行情在"牛市两段论"中的定位：春季行情可 能是高位震荡行情中的一波反弹(总体市场更偏向此情形)；或者是调整幅度到位，向震荡阶段过渡的一波反弹(科技更偏向此情形)。 三、短期小幅反弹，春季行情有效反弹。 "政策底"可能提前验证 + 周期涨价 + 26年中PPI同比改善预期，顺周期可能是春季行情的基础资产，看好基础化工和工业技术等 周期Alpha。科技总体调整幅度到位，可能出现普遍反弹。重点关注，性价比矛盾本就较小 + 春季有望兑现产业催化的创新药和国防军工。AI算力、存储、储能、机器人 等也会有反弹机会。港股延续高beta特征，恒生科技调整更充分，反弹波段也会更有弹性。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of sectors such as consumer electronics, components, and communication devices, with a focus on AI infrastructure and applications driving growth in cloud computing ETFs [1] Group 1: AI Computing Developments - Google's TPU has introduced a new direction for AI computing with its OCS next-generation optical interconnect solution, designed specifically for accelerating AI and machine learning tasks, marking it as a significant support following GPUs [6] - Alibaba has raised its AI investment guidance, confirming a potential increase in capital expenditures to 380 billion yuan over the next three years, with cloud business growth reported at 34% [7] - Beijing has launched a "space computing" plan to build large-scale data centers in low Earth orbit, aiming to transfer substantial AI computing power to space [8][9] Group 2: Market Growth Projections - According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the global computing power scale is projected to grow to over 16 ZFLOPS by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% [3] - The global cloud computing market is expected to reach $692.9 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.3%, while China's cloud computing market is anticipated to grow to 828.8 billion yuan, a 34.4% increase [3] - The cloud computing ETF (159890) tracks the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, which includes leading companies in optical modules, electronic terminals, and software development [3][13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape for computing power is evolving, with new stock offerings from companies like Moore Threads and Muxi indicating a potential shift in the investment paradigm [2] - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is expected to remain robust, with significant opportunities in the supply chain for optical modules and related technologies [18][19]

Market Overview - In November, the A-share market exhibited a downward trend, contrasting with optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month [1] - Major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, fell by 1.67%, the CSI 300 by 2.46%, and the Wind All A Index by 2.22% [2] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 4.23%, and the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 6.24%, indicating a significant adjustment in growth-style sectors [2] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as comprehensive services, banking, textiles, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing showed relative stability, while sectors like computers, automobiles, electronics, and non-bank financials experienced substantial declines [2] - Over 60% of stocks recorded negative returns, highlighting a marked reduction in market profitability [2] Market Adjustment Reasons - The decline in the market is attributed to multiple factors, including a cooling global AI investment theme, which negatively impacted growth sectors [3] - Concerns over the domestic economic recovery were underscored by a manufacturing PMI drop to 49.0 in October and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in industrial profits [3] - An unexpected tightening of overseas liquidity, driven by strong U.S. employment data, has also contributed to market pressures [3] December Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in December, with a focus on economic fundamentals and liquidity events [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in mid-December and the Central Economic Work Conference in China are critical for market direction [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation sectors such as banking and utilities for stability [5] - Growth sectors with reasonable valuations, including energy storage, military, AI computing, power grid equipment, and semiconductors, are identified as having mid-term investment value [5][6] Sector-Specific Insights - The energy storage sector is projected to grow over 40% due to increased demand and policy support [6] - The military sector benefits from the transition between the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, showing high earnings visibility [6] - The AI computing sector has seen a doubling in domestic server shipments year-on-year, driven by surging demand [6] - The power grid equipment sector is supported by accelerated construction and increased overseas exports [6] - The semiconductor sector is driven by demand from AI chips and automotive semiconductors, indicating strong earnings elasticity [6] Conclusion - The market will continue to navigate between "overseas liquidity pressures" and "domestic policy support capabilities" in December [7] - Investors are advised to monitor key domestic and international policy signals while maintaining a defensive position and gradually increasing allocations in high-growth areas [7]

Group 1 - The market experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks regarding cost-performance issues has passed the halfway mark, with insufficient time for recovery [2][5][6] - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments reach near the bull-bear boundary, it indicates a mid-term bottom area, but there may be a situation of "sufficient amplitude, insufficient time" [2][5][6] - The current adjustment in technology growth stocks has exceeded half of its amplitude, but the time for recovery remains challenging, requiring industry catalysts and performance validation to digest valuations [5][6][7] Group 2 - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound within a high-level consolidation phase, with effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical stocks) likely to occur, but upward breakout logic may be difficult to realize [6][7][8] - The spring market may either be a rebound in the high-level consolidation phase of the bull market 1.0 or a transition from the adjustment phase to a bottom consolidation phase [6][7][8] - The spring market's upper limit may be constrained, as offensive assets are not yet sufficient to lead the market breakout, and the conditions for technology stocks to break upward are stricter [7][8][9] Group 3 - Short-term small rebounds are expected, with the spring market likely to see effective rebounds driven by a "policy bottom" and cyclical price increases, particularly in basic chemicals and industrial technology [8][9] - The overall adjustment amplitude of technology stocks is likely to be sufficient for a widespread rebound, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense [9] - The Hong Kong stock market continues to exhibit high beta characteristics, with the Hang Seng Technology index showing more substantial adjustments and greater rebound elasticity [9]

配置上，建议采用"防御+景气"哑铃型策略：短期持有高股息、低估值的银行、电力等防御板块；同时 前瞻布局储能、军工、AI算力等景气领域，储能行业增速有望超40%，军工受益国防现代化需求，AI算 力在服务器出货翻倍驱动下需求刚性凸显。投资者需在震荡中保持耐心，灵活调整结构，为2026年机遇 蓄力。。 今天A股市场在窄幅震荡中收涨，但成交额降至1.6万亿元，接近四个月来的地量水平。这种量能萎缩， 往往意味着市场在寻找新方向前的蓄势。 具体看，上证指数微涨0.34%，收于3888.60点，深证成指和创业板指分别上涨0.85%和0.70%，科创50指 数以1.25%的涨幅领先，显示科技股仍是资金青睐的对象。月线层面，多数指数收跌，但今日超4000只 个股飘红，板块分化中透出结构性机会。 其他板块如锂矿和大消费，也受益于超跌反弹和事件驱动。锂矿股在盛新锂能等个股带动下反弹，大消 费则因海欣食品"地天板"而活跃。这些现象说明，资金正从高估值板块流向政策支持的硬科技和顺周期 领域。反观银行和医药的下跌，则反映了市场对基本面压力的担忧。 展望12月，A股市场预计延续震荡格局，多空因素博弈加剧。经济基本面企稳改善仍是核心关切，内 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their previous forecast of a delay until January [1] - The research team led by Michael Feroli noted support for recent rate cuts from several Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President Williams [1] - Morgan Stanley now expects two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in December and January [1] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Berenberg Bank indicates that the UK's fiscal space has increased, which supports the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK budget is better than expected, with fiscal buffers increasing from £10 billion to just below £22 billion, and public borrowing expected to decline [3] - BlackRock analysts believe the UK budget will boost market confidence and alleviate political concerns, with the government expanding fiscal space to £22 billion [2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley has ended its bullish stance on the British pound, suggesting that the recent budget may have provided the last positive catalyst for the currency [3] - Analysts noted that the correlation between the pound and the stock market has dropped to zero, diminishing the currency's appeal [3] Group 4: Japan's Economic Policy - Fitch Ratings warns that Japan's new stimulus plan could pose risks to its credit rating if it leads to prolonged monetary easing and increased government debt [4] - The stimulus plan, amounting to approximately 3.4% of GDP, has uncertain fiscal impacts due to its reliance on non-fiscal measures and potential implementation risks [4] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political factors may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until January [4] Group 5: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a "bumpy" trend for the computer industry in 2025, with a focus on AI applications and the acceleration of model parity by 2026 [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates downward pressure on beef supply by 2026, with a cumulative reduction in stock exceeding 10% since 2024 [6] - CITIC Securities has raised its lithium price forecast upper limit to 120,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in the energy storage battery sector [6]

Market Review - The narrative of new and old momentum alternation was the main theme throughout 2025, with significant attention on AI and robotics in early months, establishing technology as the year's main focus [1][9] - The market experienced a strong rebound in April, supported by state intervention, followed by a surge in infrastructure investments in July, and a notable acceleration in technology stocks in August [1][9] - By October, structural risks became apparent, leading to a period of market volatility [1][9] New Momentum Growth Environment - The environment for new momentum growth is favorable, with technology being a key focus in the 14th Five-Year Plan, similar to previous plans that led to bull markets in mobile internet and new energy [1][18] - Substantial progress in AI and robotics supports the technology market, with improved performance from tech companies attracting investment [1][18] - Ample liquidity, indicated by rising M1 growth and a narrowing M1-M2 gap, provides a conducive environment for market development [1][37] Structural Characteristics of the Market - The market is still in the early stages of transitioning from old to new momentum, with structural characteristics expected to persist in 2026, focusing on technology and dividend stocks, alongside resource and overseas investments as quality options [1][2] - The technology sector is currently in the "hardware first" phase, with expectations for better performance in dividend stocks in 2026 due to a low-interest-rate environment [2][3] - Companies expanding overseas are seeing a recovery in profitability, benefiting from higher net profit margins and reduced trade friction [2][3] Volatility Management - Market volatility decreased to historical lows in 2025, but is expected to increase in 2026, making it crucial to manage trading strategies and monitor key indicators [3][4] - If indicators such as implied volatility and the proportion of high-priced stocks reach historical highs, caution in positioning is advised [3][4]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened with mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.08% to 3867.20 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.03% and 0.11% respectively [2][3] - The Hong Kong market also opened with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.1% [4] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the non-ferrous metals sector opened strongly, with tin and aluminum leading the gains. The AI computing concept remained active, with Cambrian rising over 3% [3] - Conversely, the CPO concept experienced a general pullback, with lithium battery, aquaculture, and real estate sectors mostly declining. Vanke A opened with a significant drop of nearly 5% [3] - In the Hong Kong market, the non-ferrous sector also saw gains, with China Aluminum rising over 4% and Zijin Mining increasing nearly 3%. However, Vanke Enterprises opened down over 5%, nearing its historical low [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.03% and 0.11% respectively [2][3] - The non-ferrous metal industry showed a collective rise, with tin and aluminum leading the gains, while the AI computing power concept remained active, with Cambrian rising over 3% [3] - The CPO concept experienced a general pullback, with sectors such as lithium batteries, aquaculture, and real estate mostly declining, and Vanke A opening down nearly 5% [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong market opened with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.07%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.1%, with tech stocks like Baidu Group dropping over 1% [4] - The non-ferrous sector in Hong Kong also saw gains, with China Aluminum rising over 4% and Zijin Mining up nearly 3%, while Vanke Enterprises opened down over 5%, close to its historical low [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 356.4 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 300 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [4]