2025年下半年A股投资关键词为红利资产、科技创新、大消费。 展望2025年下半年，多家券商指出，A股有望呈现震荡向上行情。一方面，国内经济保持较强韧性；另 一方面，中国资产的估值仍处于偏低水平，中国资产重估以及外资流入仍有演绎的空间。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现，对于下半年的投资，多家券商建议从红利资产、科技创新主题、大消费 板块三大方向去挖掘投资机会。 下半年A股或震荡向上 近期，卖方机构在展望2025年下半年投资策略时，释放了乐观情绪。多家券商判断，2025年下半年，A 股市场有望震荡向上。 具体而言，机构主要从两个维度进行分析，继而得出上述结论。 第一，结合基本面、估值等因素。 21世纪经济报道记者易妍君 广州报道 6月25日，"国泰君安国际获批提供加密货币等虚拟资产交易服 务"的消息引爆A股金融科技板块，也提振了市场交易情绪。 截至当日收盘，上证指数上涨1.04%，报收3455.97点，创年内收盘新高，创业板指涨超3%；两市成交 放量至1.6万亿元。 盘面上，稳定币、军工、AI应用、算力、固态电池、无人驾驶等概念股表现活跃。油气、海运等板块 受外围因素影响继续调整。 "短期指数打开空间后，预计A股 ...

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]

老铁们，这里是帮主郑重的盘前策略时间。接下来咱们来聊聊6月20日A股的走势，结合技术面、政策面、消息面和资金流向，看看市场到底在闹什么幺蛾 子。 先看技术面，昨天A股三大指数低开低走，沪指直接失守3370点，跌到3362点，深成指和创业板指更是跌超1%。这波调整力度不小，成交量倒是放大到1.28 万亿，不过主力资金净流出224亿，明显有恐慌盘在跑路。技术面上看，沪指下面的支撑位在3330点附近，也就是4月份反弹的起涨点，要是跌破这个位置， 可能会引发更多恐慌盘。创业板指则要关注2000点的支撑，这位置要是守不住，短期可能还得磨底。不过有一点得注意，平均股价的缺口已经补上了，其他 指数的缺口还在，等它们补完缺口，市场可能会有反弹机会。 综合来看，现在市场就是个大震荡的格局，中东的地缘风险、欧洲的经济疲软、美联储的政策摇摆，都是影响市场的关键因素。作为中长线投资者，咱们得 把眼光放长远，别被短期波动牵着走。策略上，我建议关注三个方向：一是政策支持的科技板块，尤其是半导体、AI算力这些，回调下来可能是布局机 会；二是能源板块，地缘风险溢价还在，油价上涨会直接利好相关企业；三是高股息的银行、电力股，防守反击，进可攻退 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, is impacting global oil prices and supply chains, which may negatively affect export-dependent sectors in A-shares like electronics and home appliances. However, gold and oil sectors may benefit from this situation as investors seek safe havens [3] - Domestic policies are becoming more favorable, with the central bank injecting 1.4 trillion yuan in liquidity over ten days, benefiting banks and brokerages. Upcoming events like the Lujiazui Forum may lead to further policy support, such as interest rate cuts or consumption stimulus [3] Group 2: Policy Impacts - The real estate sector is seeing a relaxation of restrictions, with cities like Guangzhou lifting purchase and sale limits, which may provide some relief to related industries like building materials and home furnishings, although significant price increases are not expected due to the ongoing "housing is for living in, not for speculation" policy [3] - The regulatory environment for technology is tightening, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, which remain policy priorities, but high valuations may require a wait for corrections before investment [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around the 3400-point mark, showing signs of a potential downward adjustment with key support levels identified between 3350 and 3370 points. A rebound is possible if the market stabilizes, as liquidity remains abundant [4] Group 4: Fund Flows - Recent shifts in major funds indicate a rotation, with increased investments in brokerages and innovative pharmaceuticals, while the new energy vehicle sector is experiencing significant sell-offs due to high valuations. Northbound funds are steadily accumulating bank stocks, indicating a preference for high-dividend investments [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to include defensive assets like gold and oil in their portfolios due to the uncertain geopolitical climate, with specific stocks like Shandong Molong and Western Gold showing potential [7] - Capitalizing on policy benefits by focusing on leading stocks in the brokerage and real estate sectors is recommended, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing high prices [7] - Long-term investments in sectors like AI computing, humanoid robotics, and low-altitude economy are encouraged, as these areas are expected to provide opportunities despite short-term volatility [8]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Litong Electronics Co., Ltd. has achieved revenue growth in 2024 through strategic transformation into dual main business operations, focusing on precision metal components for LCD TVs and AI computing cloud services, despite a decline in net profit and cash flow [1] Financial Data Analysis - Revenue for 2024 reached 2,247.56 million yuan, an increase of 18.72% year-on-year, primarily driven by the rapid development of the AI computing business, which contributed 455.20 million yuan, a staggering increase of 3,817% [2] - Sales of precision metal components for LCD TVs decreased by 3.06% to 1,527.33 million yuan, while electronic components sales fell by 11.55% to 154.60 million yuan [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.62 million yuan, down 38.77% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 5.89 million yuan, a decline of 71.10% [3] - The manufacturing segment reported a net loss of 115.68 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.65%, down 6.26 percentage points [3] - AI computing business net profit was 142.31 million yuan, with a gross margin of 53.42%, up 9.39 percentage points [3] Earnings Per Share - Basic earnings per share were 0.10 yuan, a decrease of 37.50%, while non-recurring earnings per share were 0.02 yuan, down 75.00% [4] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses increased by 7.81% to 22.80 million yuan, indicating stable growth [5] - Management expenses rose significantly by 33.66% to 182.48 million yuan, driven by stock incentive plans and rising labor costs [6] - Financial expenses surged by 315.14% to 55.98 million yuan, primarily due to unrecognized financing costs from the AI computing business [7] - R&D expenses grew by 8.77% to 84.26 million yuan, supporting advancements in both AI computing and LCD TV components [8][9] Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities fell sharply by 89.78% to 74.84 million yuan, indicating potential issues in cash collection or cost control [10] - Net cash flow from investing activities was -372.34 million yuan, a decrease of 54.83%, suggesting a slowdown in fixed asset investments [11] - Net cash flow from financing activities turned negative at -22.77 million yuan, a decline of 105.84%, reflecting significant debt repayments or financing costs [12]

北美 AI 算力&云计算行业观点更新：如何看待后续空间？ 20250610 摘要 美股 AI 算力板块表现突出，英伟达自 4 月 22 日以来股价上涨 40.5%，AMD 上涨 39.1%，博通和迈威尔分别上涨 43%和 34%，数 据中心基建相关公司也受到显著催化，例如 Constellation 上涨 56%， 高速互联公司 Credo 上涨 69%。 大型云厂商如微软和 Oracle 受益于云计算业绩超预期，股价分别上涨 28%和 35%，远期 PE 高于五年均值。新型云厂商 CoreWeave 与 Nelcast 虽然亏损，但 PS 估值较高，分别达到 13.3 倍和 21.9 倍。 与算力强相关的 AI 应用软件公司涨幅显著，北美软件指数 IGV 反弹 30%。云安全公司 Rubrik 与 Zscaler 分别上涨 62%与 51%，Web 应 用程序安全公司 Cloudflare 上涨 55%。 英伟达一季度业绩符合预期，二季度指引收入 450 亿美元，同比增长 76%，Blackwell 需求强劲，GB300 量产时间提前，NVH 机柜快速爬 坡，全年 Blackwell 出货量预计为 500 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in A-shares is expected to continue until mid-2026, driven by policy support, liquidity easing, and technological advancements [3][12]. Market Forecast - The peak of the bull market is predicted to occur between mid-2025 and early 2026, with major institutions agreeing on a continuation until late 2025 or early 2026 [3][10]. - Technical analysis suggests that the main upward wave starting in September 2024 could target a breakout above 7000 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [4][10]. Historical Context - Historical bull markets in A-shares have lasted between 1.5 to 3 years, with the current cycle likely to follow the patterns observed in previous bull markets from 2019 and 2005-2007 [5][6]. Market Phases - The current phase is characterized as the initial stage of the bull market, with a period of consolidation expected from October 2024 to mid-2025 [7]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to see earnings growth driven by policy measures, pushing the index towards 3700-3800 points [8]. Key Drivers and Potential Risks - Key drivers include strong policy support, liquidity easing, and industrial upgrades in sectors like AI and renewable energy [9]. - Potential risks involve external shocks, such as U.S. tariff policies, and slower-than-expected recovery in the real estate sector [9]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Short-term investments (first half of 2025) should focus on sectors benefiting from policy support, including technology (AI computing, semiconductors), brokerage firms, and undervalued consumer goods [10][11]. - Long-term allocations (post-second half of 2025) should emphasize growth in technology (AI applications, renewable energy) and recovery in consumer sectors (pharmaceuticals, food and beverages) [11]. Conclusion - The bull market is likely to persist until late 2025 or early 2026, with critical validation points in early 2025 for earnings reports and mid-2025 for interim results [12][13].

一、定增 1、广联航空：拟以支付现金方式购买天津跃峰科技2550万股股份，占标的公司总股份的51%。本次交 易完成后公司预计将实现对标公司的控股。 2、爱柯迪：定增购买卓尔博(宁波)精密机电股份有限公司71%股权申请获受理。 3、*ST松发：新增股份7.38亿股上市。 二、增持、股权转让、回购 1、新华医疗：控股股东拟增持1亿元-2亿元公司股份。 12、航天动力：全资子公司西安元新航天动力流体装备拟在产权交易机构预挂牌，通过增资扩股的方式 引入投资者，本次交易有利于公司变矩器及高端装备制造产业建设。 晚间公告 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 三、对外投资、日常经营 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 2、胜宏科技：初步确定询价转让价格为65.85元/股。 3、福立旺：询价转让价格为17.66元/股。 4、迈信林：股东询价转让价格为40元/股。 5、鸿博股份：回购注销215.28万股限制性股票。 1、平治信息：签订2.46亿元AI算力技术服务框架协议。 2、禾迈股份：签订10亿元户用光伏合作协议。 3、安琪酵母：拟实施无血清细胞培养基核心技术攻关工程项目，项目总投资估算2.3亿元。 4、晶澳科技： ...

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 速览投资风口，掌握资本律动。 作者丨 长风 来源丨 东四十条资本 大家好，我是长风。今天给大家带来上周资本市场的专业投研信息。 焦点回顾： 新消费赛道，饮料品牌受关注。 上周， 从事椰水全产业链业务的泰国IMCOCO集团，近期宣布完成亿 元级Pre-A轮融资。此轮融资由Insignia Ventures Partners领投，天图资本跟投。此外，立吉团宣 布已完成天使轮融资，融资额达1000万元，投资方为深圳市冠峰永越投资有限公司。 36氪消息， 从事椰水全产业链业务的泰国IMCOCO集团，近期宣布完成亿元级Pre-A轮融资。此轮融 资由Insignia Ventures Partners领投，天图资本跟投。 立吉团科技完成天使轮融资 近日， 陕西立吉团科技有限公司（简称：立吉团）宣布已完成天使轮融资，融资额达1000万元，投资 方为深圳市冠峰永越投资有限公司。 未名拾光完成近亿元战略融资 近日，未名拾光宣布完成战略轮近亿元人民币融资，由欧莱雅集团与纳爱斯集团共同投资。 硬科技赛道，卫星通信成新宠。 上周，卫星物联网运营商鹏鹄物宇正式完成A轮融资，整体融资金额 已 ...

截至5月20日，基金产品收益差距"一度"破100个百分点。 Wind数据显示，截至目前的公募基金产品年内收益最高达73.01%，最低亏损则达到27.55%，两者业绩悬殊在 不足半年时间 "一度"破100个百分点。具有微妙意味的是，排名最强的基金产品的核心重仓股主要指向过去一 年机构筹码分布较少的美容化妆品以及宠物食品股等，而排名最弱的基金产品则将重仓股指向过去一年机构筹 码高度抱团的AI算力与科技股等。 业内人士认为，低配赛道变成高配赛道或弱势行业变成强势行业的股价弹性最具吸引力，而高配赛道或强势赛 道变成更强局面的难度更大，面临的机构抛压的可能性也更大。多位基金经理也指出，相比预期过高的AI、 人形机器人等，新消费赛道的预期差更具吸引力，应持续关注消费年龄结构及新生活方式带来的新兴投资机 会。 赛道冷热变化提高基金弹性 Wind数据显示，截至5月20日，华夏北交所精选基金年内收益已达73.01%，而上海地区一家公募旗下偏股基金 年内亏损则达到27.55%。这使得未达半年时间的背景下，公募基金产品的年内收益差距 "一度"破100个百分 点。这两只基金产品之间出现的巨大业绩差距，在某种程度上还体现出弱势赛道与强 ...