美国国债收益率在临近年底的淡静交投中走低。市场焦点将集中于定于周二发布的美联储会议纪要，投 资者希望从中获取2026年进一步降息幅度与时间表的信号。疲软的美国劳动力市场暗示利率可能继续下 调，但投资者也注意到近期超预期的第三季度GDP数据。伦交所数据显示，美国货币市场目前定价2026 年至少会有两次降息，首次降息可能要到4月或6月。Tradeweb数据显示，10年期国债收益率下降2个基 点至4.115%，较2025年初的约4.571%有所回落。 美国国债收益率在临近年底的淡静交投中走低。市场焦点将集中于定于周二发布的美联储会议纪要，投 资者希望从中获取2026年进一步降息幅度与时间表的信号。疲软的美国劳动力市场暗示利率可能继续下 调，但投资者也注意到近期超预期的第三季度GDP数据。伦交所数据显示，美国货币市场目前定价2026 年至少会有两次降息，首次降息可能要到4月或6月。Tradeweb数据显示，10年期国债收益率下降2个基 点至4.115%，较2025年初的约4.571%有所回落。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88%. The improvement in cross-year funds is expected to support the continued strength of short-term bonds, and the yield curve may steepen further [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated last week, with short-term bond yields declining significantly and long-term yields rising slightly. The 10-year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.20% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.68bp from the previous Friday, while the 1-year Treasury yield dropped 6.75bp, and the term spread widened significantly [5] - On December 22, the bond market weakened under pressure due to stable LPR quotes and rising stock markets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.09bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.09% [6] - On December 23, the bond market strengthened due to the entry of allocation funds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.63bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.26% [6] - On December 24, the bond market oscillated under the influence of multiple rumors. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.04bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.02% [6] - On December 25, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with short-term bonds remaining warm and medium - and long-term bonds weakening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.30bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.02% [6] - On December 26, the bond market warmed up due to loose funds and early - year allocation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.10bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.10% [6][7] Primary Market - Nine interest rate bonds were issued last week, 26 less than the previous week, with a total issuance of 210.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 166 billion yuan. The net financing was 174.8 billion yuan, an increase of 153.9 billion yuan. There were no policy - financial bonds issued or repaid. Treasury issuance and net financing increased, while local bond issuance decreased, and net financing also decreased [15] - The overall subscription demand for interest rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiple for 3 issued Treasuries was 2.74 times, and for 6 local bonds, it was 15.17 times [16] 2. Last Week's Important Events - The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in December was 100 billion yuan, which was the tenth consecutive month of increased roll - over, meeting market expectations. This was to support the liquidity of the banking system and help stabilize growth and expectations at the end of the year [18] 3. Real Economy Observation - High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. Blast furnace operating rates and petroleum asphalt plant operating rates continued to decline, while semi - steel tire operating rates and daily hot metal production rebounded [19] - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase [19] - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including copper and oil prices, and the rebar price fell slightly [19] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 155.2 billion yuan [26][28] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks declined overall, the national - share direct discount rate increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase [31][33][36]

| | | 中德国债收益率曲线(到期)% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 12月19日 | 12月26日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.19 | 1. 1057 | -8. 43 | | 0.08 | 1. 2437 | 1. 1901 | -5. 36 | | 0. 17 | 1.3336 | 1.248 | -8.56 | | 0. 25 | 1.35 | 1. 3053 | -4. 47 | | 0.5 | 1.35 | 1. 3185 | -3.15 | | 0. 75 | 1.3519 | 1.2872 | -6. 47 | | 1 | 1.3547 | 1.2872 | -6. 75 | | 2 | 1. 3752 | 1. 3378 | -3.74 | | 3 | 1.3941 | 1. 3627 | -3.14 | | 5 | 1.6021 | 1.5948 | -0. 73 | | 7 | 1.7258 | 1. 7033 | -2. 25 | | 10 | 1.8308 | 1.8376 | 0.68 | | I E | 2. 114 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB, breaking the 7.0 barrier and returning to the "6 era," is reshaping individual wealth dynamics and presents both opportunities and challenges for consumers and investors [2][15]. Consumer Impact - The RMB appreciation acts as a universal "discount season" for consumers, particularly benefiting those engaged in overseas shopping and travel, as prices for imported goods and services have effectively decreased [2][4]. - For families supporting children studying abroad, the currency shift can lead to significant savings; for instance, a drop in the exchange rate from 7.2 to 6.99 can save over 10,000 RMB on a total annual expenditure of 50,000 USD for studying in the U.S. [5]. Investment Opportunities - The appreciation of the RMB is likely to attract foreign capital inflows, benefiting A-shares and core asset valuations, particularly in sectors like consumption, finance, and real estate, leading to potential valuation recovery for investors [7]. - Chinese government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, especially in the context of U.S. interest rate cuts, highlighting the stability of RMB-denominated debt [7]. Debt Management - For those with foreign currency debts, such as USD mortgages, the appreciation of the RMB effectively reduces the debt burden. However, domestic interest rates remain unchanged, which could impact those with RMB-denominated debts [10]. - It is advisable for individuals holding cash with high-interest loans to prioritize paying off these debts, as reducing high-interest liabilities is a prudent financial strategy in a declining investment return environment [12]. Strategic Recommendations - Individuals with upcoming foreign expenditures should consider locking in current exchange rates by gradually purchasing foreign currency to mitigate risks associated with future fluctuations [12]. - Those holding excess USD cash should consider converting to RMB or investing in USD-denominated financial products to avoid losses from currency depreciation and inflation [12]. - Maintaining a liquidity buffer of 3-6 months' worth of expenses is recommended, along with increasing allocations to RMB-denominated equity assets to capitalize on economic recovery and currency appreciation [14].

Group 1: Domestic Financial Policies - The National Financial Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools to enhance their effectiveness [2] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund has officially launched, with a total investment of 100 billion yuan from the central government, expected to leverage over a trillion yuan in social capital for strategic emerging industries [2] - The People's Bank of China highlighted the need to prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, particularly in real estate, while implementing a more proactive macro policy [3] Group 2: Economic Performance - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3] - The final verified GDP for 2024 was announced as 1,348,066 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,018 billion yuan from the preliminary estimate, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of warming, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 0.35 basis points to 1.8355% [12] - The convertible bond market experienced mixed performance, with the market index showing slight declines, while individual bonds like Jia Mei Convertible Bond rose over 17% [16] - The U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 10-year yield falling by 1 basis point to 4.14% [19]

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with inflation showing signs of slowing down, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again in December. The Fed's cautious stance indicates only one rate cut is expected in 2026, which is less than market predictions [2][3] - In Europe, a weak economic recovery is coupled with the European Central Bank's increased tolerance for inflation, leading to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [3] - Domestic consumption and investment are slowing due to high bases and weak expectations, while external demand remains strong, particularly in export-oriented sectors. Structural support for service consumption is anticipated as policies support recovery [3][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for stable economic growth and quality improvement, with a focus on the integrated effects of monetary and fiscal policies. A reserve requirement ratio cut is expected to be implemented first, with interest rate cuts being more structural [3][3] Fixed Income Research - Panda bonds, which are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, have seen their market scale exceed 1.14 trillion RMB, reflecting the ongoing internationalization of the RMB and the opening of China's bond market [6][6] - The panda bond market has evolved through three stages: initial exploration (2005-2013), development with increased participation (2014-2022), and rapid expansion and product innovation (2023-present) [6][6] - Panda bonds offer lower financing costs compared to offshore dollar bonds and provide flexibility in fund usage, while also serving as a risk diversification tool for investors [7][7] - As of December 5, 2025, there are 263 panda bonds with a market size of 414.886 billion RMB, indicating a significant increase in issuance driven by policy optimization [7][7] Industry Research - The sixth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement has been initiated, with significant developments including the approval of a domestic anti-CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody and the introduction of a weight-loss version of semaglutide for cardiovascular indications [11][11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.66% during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with the SW Pharmaceutical and Biological Index increasing by 1.43% [11][11] - The report suggests focusing on pharmaceutical companies whose products enter medical insurance and the investment opportunities arising from structural optimization in innovative drug payments, as well as the progress in the medical device sector following the initiation of high-value consumables procurement [12][12]

Core Insights - The Chinese bond market has expanded significantly, reaching a total scale of over 196 trillion yuan, solidifying its position as the second largest in the world [1] - The market has transitioned from a single-direction trend to a high-volatility environment, indicating a shift in investment strategies and market dynamics [3] - Innovative financial products and tools have emerged, particularly focusing on supporting the national strategy for technological self-reliance [5][6] Macroeconomic Background and Policy Framework - In 2025, macroeconomic policies demonstrated precise coordination and foresight, with a supportive monetary policy maintaining a moderately loose stance [2] - Local government bond issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time, with new special bond issuance reaching 4.59 trillion yuan [2] Bond Yield Trends - The bond market experienced a paradigm shift from a trend-driven environment to a high-volatility market, characterized by a clear "return run" pattern in yields [3] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated between approximately 1.6% and 1.9% throughout the year, reflecting various economic pressures [3] Rate Bonds and Credit Bonds - The primary market saw a dual drive from rate bonds and credit bonds, with significant net financing for government bonds and a robust credit bond issuance [4] - The secondary market exhibited structural differentiation, with high-grade credit bonds performing well while lower-quality bonds faced pressure [4] Innovative Products and New Tools - 2025 marked a year of significant product innovation in the bond market, particularly with the launch of the "technology board" for bonds [5][6] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds surged, with 24 new technology bond ETFs launched, totaling over 273.7 billion yuan [6] Policy and Mechanism Upgrades - The year was recognized for optimizing bond market mechanisms, enhancing efficiency and resilience through various institutional reforms [8][9] - The opening of bond repurchase transactions to foreign institutional investors significantly improved liquidity and international appeal [8][10] Bond Market Opening - The bond market has entered a new phase of deep opening characterized by "rule co-construction," with 1,187 foreign institutions participating and holding approximately 3.61 trillion yuan in bonds [10] - The focus has shifted from mere investment access to providing a market infrastructure aligned with international standards [10] Conclusion - The bond market has played an irreplaceable role in supporting economic recovery and national strategic transformation, becoming more mature and resilient [11] - A clear vision for a modernized bond market that is structured, functional, transparent, and inclusive is emerging, poised to continue empowering high-quality economic development [11]

Group 1 - The domestic capital market in 2025 shows a significant "strong stock and weak bond" pattern, with the bond market experiencing a downward trend while the A-share market performs strongly due to technology themes and economic recovery expectations [1] - The bond market's performance diverges from fundamental data, particularly in long-term bonds of 10 years and above, which reflects a weakening trend [1][3] - The credit bond market shows a narrowing of credit spreads in the first half of the year, despite some defaults in non-standard financing [5] Group 2 - For 2026, the domestic capital market is expected to exhibit a synchronized upward trend in both stocks and bonds, supported by a dovish monetary policy and fiscal stimulus [7][10] - The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," with a focus on maintaining stable financing conditions, although the frequency and magnitude of rate cuts may be limited [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 demonstrates resilience despite pressures from geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions, with GDP growth expected to meet the target of around 5% [14] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests that opportunities in the market are more abundant compared to early 2025, with long-term bonds and local government bonds showing potential for stable returns [18] - The recommendation includes cautious allocation to short-term bonds issued by weaker regional platforms while managing credit risk [18] - The strategy also considers trading in certain long-duration government bonds to capitalize on favorable market conditions [18]

Report Information - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] - Report Title: Bond Research Weekly: Insurance Funds Rush to Allocate 30-Year Treasury Bonds [2] Report Core Issues - Recent bond market performance review [5] - Recent institutional behavior changes [5] - Outlook for the subsequent bond market [5] Investment Highlights - The recent bond market has been volatile, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield hovering around 1.83%. The loose funding situation is notable at the end of the year, with funding rates remaining low and interbank lending volume above 5 trillion yuan [6][11] - In the short term, the 30Y - 10Y term spread may stabilize. Insurance institutions have significantly increased their bond purchases in the secondary market in the past two weeks, becoming the largest buyers of 30-year Treasury bonds and stabilizing their performance [6][11] - This phenomenon may be related to the "Insurance Company Asset - Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comment)", and it is also possible that insurance institutions are optimizing liquidity indicators at the end of the year. Attention should be paid to whether they become net sellers after the New Year [6][11] - In terms of trading structure, large banks mainly bought 10-year and shorter Treasury bonds, joint-stock banks took profits, securities firms mainly bought 5 - 10Y Treasury bonds, and public funds preferred 10Y China Development Bank bonds without significantly chasing 30-year Treasury bonds at the end of the year [6][12] - As of December 26, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (including leverage) was 2.67 years, showing no significant change from December 22 [6][12] Section Summaries 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was volatile, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield around 1.83%. The funding situation was loose, with rates low and interbank lending volume above 5 trillion yuan [11] - Insurance institutions increased bond purchases, becoming the largest buyers of 30-year Treasury bonds, which may be due to regulatory requirements and year - end optimization of indicators [11] 2. Bond Yield Curve Tracking 2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spreads - As of December 26, compared with December 22, the 1Y Treasury yield dropped 6.75bp to 1.29%, the 10Y dropped 0.39bp to 1.84%, and the 30Y dropped 1.79bp to 2.22% [13] - The 30Y - 10Y spread decreased 1.40bp to 38.57bp, and the 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury spread increased 0.34bp to 14.41bp [13] 2.2 Treasury Bond Term Spreads - As of December 26, compared with December 22, the 3Y - 1Y spread rose 3.51bp to 7.55bp, the 5Y - 3Y rose 1.89bp to 23.21bp, etc. [16] 3. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.1 Interbank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of December 26, the balance rose 0.22 trillion yuan to 12.96 trillion yuan compared with December 22 [19] 3.2 Interbank Bond Market Leverage Ratio - As of December 26, the ratio increased 0.15pct to 107.79% compared with December 22 [22] 3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From December 22 to 26, the average daily turnover was 8.49 trillion yuan, with overnight turnover averaging about 7.49 trillion yuan and an overnight turnover ratio of 88.28% [25][26] 3.4 Interbank Funding Situation - From December 22 to 26, bank lending increased. As of December 26, large and policy banks' net lending was 4.91 trillion yuan, and joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks' net lending was 0.58 trillion yuan [28] - As of December 26, DR001 was 1.2556%, DR007 was 1.5237%, R001 was 1.3450%, and R007 was 1.5264% [28] 4. Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Durations 4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of December 26, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 2.59 years (de - leveraged) and 2.67 years (including leverage), showing no change from December 22 [40] 4.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds - As of December 26, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.72 years, down 0.01 year from December 22, and that of credit bond funds was 2.41 years, down 0.01 year [43] 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - As of December 26, compared with December 22, the borrowing volume of 10Y CDB bonds fluctuated [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week - on - week basis this period, and are expected to increase next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan/-31.74 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan/281.57 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), it is expected to be 260.00 billion yuan/174.49 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 - billion - yuan carry - over quota. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger [2]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for 10Y and 30Y this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2]. - Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of current 3/10/15Y local government bonds. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an anchor, the top of the spread adjustment since 2018 may be 20 - 25BP above the issuance spread floor, and the bottom may be near the issuance spread floor [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Declined and the Weighted Issuance Term Shortened - The issuance of local government bonds in this period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) was 20.37 billion yuan, compared with 400.37 billion yuan in the previous period. Next period (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the forecasted issuance is 260.00 billion yuan [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in this period was 15.14 years, shorter than 16.15 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 96.2% and 103.8% considering the next - period issuance [2][18]. - There was no issuance of special new special bonds this period, nor of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 136.68 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 200 billion yuan, with the issuance progress at 100%; and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 28.75 billion yuan [2][20]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 is 168.09 billion yuan. As of December 26, 2025, 26 regions have disclosed the planned issuance scale. The issuance in 26Q1 may be similar to that in 25Q1, with refinancing bonds issued earlier. The proportion of refinancing general bonds is relatively higher than in 2025. The planned issuance scale in January and March 2026 is larger. The planned issuance scales in January, February, and March 2026 are 69.25 billion yuan, 24.22 billion yuan, and 74.62 billion yuan respectively [2][24]. - The issuance terms of local government bonds in the first quarter of 2026 in Guangxi, Ningbo, and Zhejiang, where term data are disclosed, show signs of shortening compared with the same period last year [2][31]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Narrowed for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Week - on - Week Basis - As of December 26, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 20.24BP and 15.67BP respectively, narrowing by 2.68BP and 5.81BP compared with December 19, 2025 [2][37]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in this period was 0.66%, down from 0.77% in the previous period [2][47]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jilin this period are better than the national average [2].