Market Overview - In January 2026, global markets exhibited significant divergence, with structural trends dominating the month [1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced upward movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 3% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by more than 6% [1] - The U.S. stock market reached historical highs but faced consolidation by the end of the month, with all three major indices still showing monthly gains exceeding 1% [1] A-shares Performance - The A-share market showed a steady upward trend in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.76%, the ChiNext Index up 4.47%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index up 5.03% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.59% increase, followed by media, oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and basic chemicals, which saw increases of 17.94%, 16.31%, 13.31%, and 12.72% respectively [3] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market also trended upwards in January, with the Hang Seng Index leading with a 6.85% increase, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.53% and 3.67% respectively [5] - The optical communication sector was the standout performer, surging by 32.34%, followed closely by the paper industry with a 31.76% increase [6] Precious Metals - January witnessed a remarkable rally in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising sharply due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing central bank purchases [8] - Gold prices increased by over 16%, while silver prices surged more than 34% during the month, marking them as the most notable assets in this rally [8] Industrial Metals and Energy - The industrial metals market also performed strongly, with LME nickel rising over 9% and LME copper increasing by 8.97% [10] - The energy market saw WTI crude oil futures rising over 14%, reaching $65.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures also increasing by over 14%, priced at $70.04 per barrel [10] Future Market Outlook - The focus for February is expected to remain on interest rate expectations, dollar movements, and geopolitical risks [12] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may experience a healthy adjustment, with a shift towards a more sustainable "slow bull" market, driven by earnings growth and profitability improvements [12] - For the Hong Kong market, a positive outlook is maintained, with expectations of a structural rebound supported by earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and policy support [13]

Core Viewpoint - In January, the A-share market experienced significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 3.76%, 5.03%, and 4.47% respectively. The total market capitalization of A-shares reached 125.21 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.3 trillion yuan in the month [1][3]. Industry Performance - The best-performing industry in January was the non-ferrous metals sector, which surged by 22.59%. Other notable sectors included media (up 17.94%) and oil and petrochemicals (up 16.31%). Several industries, such as construction materials, basic chemicals, and electronics, also saw increases of over 10% [3][5]. - Conversely, the banking sector experienced the largest decline, falling by 6.65%, followed by household appliances, non-bank financials, transportation, and agriculture, which all recorded slight decreases [3][5]. Stock Performance - A total of 3,993 stocks in the A-share market rose in January, with over 70% of stocks increasing in value. Notably, 716 stocks saw gains exceeding 20%, and 119 stocks rose by more than 50% [6]. - The top-performing stocks included Zhite New Materials, which increased by 234.08%, and Fenglong Co., which rose by 213.97%. Other significant gainers were Hunan Silver, Purun Co., and Sichuan Gold, all benefiting from the rising prices of precious metals [9][10]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to February, the market is expected to focus on sectors showing signs of recovery and the potential for a spring rally. Key areas of interest include electronics (semiconductors), media (advertising, gaming, film), machinery (automation, engineering), and power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic devices) [12]. - Analysts suggest that the current spring market is promising, with expectations of favorable news from both policy and fundamentals. However, a brief period of market consolidation may occur before the trading activity picks up again after the Spring Festival [12].

北交所日报 北交所日报（2026.01.30） 2026 年 01 月 30 日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ：zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026-01-30 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2026 年度策略_ 小而美美到"小 美久到，推动北证高质量发展 2. 【银河北交所】小十五五到：北交所引领中而企业 再进阶 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度中期策略_并购协同促 新格局，提质扩容迎新供给 ：010-8092-7663 ：fanxiangxiang_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 1 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ⚫ 1 月 30 日，北证 50 涨跌幅为-0.29%，收于 1,531.55 点。同日，北证 专精特新指数收于 2,571.08 点，涨跌幅为-0.29%；上证指数收于 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 红马奔腾策略系列 1：从老红利到新红马之投资 范式 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前部分机构资产回报率承压，核心原因在于负债端久期长、成本刚性，而低利率环境下，固 收类资产收益率下行，权益类的传统红利投资股息下降，较难覆盖负债端成本。投资思路：预 期回报率高（3%~5%以上）、安全边际高（行业格局和估值企稳）的方向值得关注。1）寻找 未来股息率高的方向：通过分红率的提高来提供较高的股息水平，直接增厚股息回报；2）同时 估值不应大幅下滑：具有安全边际，避免因资本利得大幅损失（如股价下跌）抵消股息收益， 重点关注供给收缩/行业出清到尾声的细分行业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% 关注自由现金流和稳住 ROE 是分红潜力的关键。一是从理论出发，稳定的自由现金流是保障 潜在股息率提升的重要基础，其通过影响利润与估值，提供持续的 ...

本周，中证石化产业指数上涨1.6%，中证稀土产业指数下跌3.7%。Wind数据显示，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）本周前 四个交易日均获资金净流入，合计超5亿元。 中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海外落后产能加速出清，供给端 有望收缩；"十五五"规划建议"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。供需双底 基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行业或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 由A股中业务范围涵盖稀土开采、稀土加工、稀土 贸易和稀土应用的38只股票组成,反映A股稀土产 业上市公司的整体表现 注1:目前全市场跟踪中证石化产业指数的ETF共2只,跟踪中证稀土产业指数的ETF共4只,跟踪同一指数 的不同ETF产品的费率、跟踪误差、规模等有所不同。银行、互联网平台等相关销售机构提供可场外投资 的ETF联接基金。低费率产品,其管理费率0.15%/年,托管费率0.05%/年。 注2. 数据来自Wind,指数涨跌幅截至2026年1月30日收盘,指数市净率及其所处分位截至2026年1月29日。 市净率P ...

Core Insights - The oil and petrochemical industry in China is transitioning to a new phase focused on high-quality development, shifting from "incremental growth" to optimizing existing resources and enhancing efficiency [1] - By 2025, China's crude oil production is expected to reach 215 million tons, marking a historical high, while natural gas production has seen continuous growth of over 10 billion cubic meters for nine consecutive years [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is identified as a critical period for the petrochemical industry to transform from large-scale to strong-scale, driven by innovation and green low-carbon initiatives [1] Industry Challenges - The procurement system in the oil and petrochemical sector faces complex challenges, including global energy shifts, increased supply chain risks, and the need to balance energy security, cost control, and compliance with stringent environmental standards [1] - The industry requires a comprehensive digital supply chain service model that encompasses all aspects of procurement, from sourcing to operations, to achieve sustainable development [2] Solutions Offered - JD Industrial has released a "Scenario Procurement Solution Manual" tailored for the oil and petrochemical industry, leveraging its super supply chain to facilitate digital upgrades and efficient supply-demand collaboration [1][2] - The solutions include the Taipu SRM full-link digital solution, Taipu long-tail material management solution, and Taipu compliance procurement solution, designed to meet diverse supply chain management needs [2] Implementation and Impact - The solutions integrate digital and intelligent technologies into business processes, covering key operational scenarios such as exploration, transportation, refining, and sales [3] - For instance, in the refining and chemical sector, JD Industrial provides essential materials like explosion-proof lighting and protective gear to ensure safe and stable operations [3] AI and Data Utilization - JD Industrial's AI model for the oil and petrochemical supply chain considers unique industry characteristics, such as high reliance on bulk materials and significant price volatility, to enhance decision-making and cash flow management [5] - The model has demonstrated effectiveness in reducing procurement costs and risks, achieving over 20% reduction in spare parts funding occupation and over 30% SKU optimization [5] Case Studies - A leading company in the industry faced supply chain uncertainties and required a robust supply assurance solution, which JD Industrial addressed through a comprehensive approach combining technology, supply chain, and services [6] - The tailored solution included collaborative delivery management to meet specific customer needs, showcasing the importance of detailed insights into vertical industries and scenarios for successful digital transformation [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market has long - term allocation value, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2026. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.83% has long - term investment value, though it may fluctuate in the short term due to high investor risk preference [12] - For A - shares, investors can follow the trend and focus on opportunities in four directions: satellite, commercial aerospace, and military industries; technology sectors like artificial intelligence, chips, etc.; bulk resource products such as non - ferrous metals, gold, and rare earths; and oil, gas, chemical, and petrochemical industries [13] - The US dollar may face continued depreciation pressure during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. The euro, pound, and yen will appreciate against the US dollar, while the RMB's appreciation against the US dollar may be relatively lower. Bulk commodities like gold, silver, copper, and oil may continue to rise in price [14] 3. Summary by Related Contents Stock Market Performance - US stock market: The three major US stock indexes declined. From 20260119 - 20260125, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by - 0.06%, - 0.35%, and - 0.53% respectively. The Hang Seng Index also declined by 0.36% during the same period [4] - A - share market: The large - cap stocks in A - shares declined while small - cap stocks rose, and most growth sectors increased. From 20260119 - 20260125, the Wind All - A Index changed by 1.81%. The CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by - 0.69%, - 0.62%, 4.34%, 2.89%, 4.04%, and 5.16% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chip stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange declined while growth stocks rose; in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, both blue - chip and growth stocks declined; the Beixin 50 Index increased by 2.60%. Among the 30 CITIC industries, 24 industries rose and 6 declined. Leading industries with a weekly increase of more than 5.0% included building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and real estate. Gold, photovoltaic, building materials, satellite, petrochemical, and aerospace ETFs led with a weekly increase of over 5% [5][6] Bond Market Performance - Chinese bonds: The yields of medium - and long - term Treasury bonds in China declined in the past week. From 20260119 - 20260125, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose by 0.12% compared to January 16, 2026. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond declined by 1.26 BP to 1.8298% compared to January 16, 2026. Yields of bonds with a maturity of 3 years and above declined [7] - US bonds: US bond yields showed mixed performance. As of January 23, 2026, the 10 - year US bond yield remained unchanged at 4.24% compared to January 16, 2026. Yields of various maturities showed mixed performance from 20260119 - 20260125 [8] Exchange Rate and Commodity Performance - Exchange rates: The US dollar depreciated. From 20260119 - 20260125, the US dollar index declined by 1.88%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by - 1.87%, - 1.89%, and - 1.43% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate declined by 0.27% to 6.9487 as of January 23, 2026, and the US dollar against the on - shore RMB exchange rate declined by 0.07% to 6.9642 [9][10] - Commodities: Gold prices rose. From 20260119 - 20260125, the London gold spot price rose by 7.27% to $4946.25 per ounce; the COMEX gold futures price rose by 7.00% to $4936.00 per ounce. The domestic Shanghai gold spot price rose by 7.52% to 1110.3 yuan per gram, and the futures price rose by 7.71% to 1111.88 yuan per gram [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active trading and significant capital inflow into the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570), with a turnover of 11.78% and a transaction volume of 116 million yuan as of January 30, 2026 [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has reached new highs in both scale and share since its inception, with a total capital inflow of 713 million yuan over the past 10 days, including a peak single-day inflow of 336 million yuan [1] - Concerns over geopolitical conflicts and rising Brent oil prices are expected to enhance the oil service industry's outlook, with global oil and gas spending remaining at low levels but showing potential for recovery [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) includes major players in the oil and petrochemical sectors, such as the "three barrels of oil" and Wanhua Chemical, and tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which reflects a "dumbbell strategy" in the petrochemical sector [2] - The ETF has maintained a leading performance compared to comparable chemical industry indices in 2023, benefiting from a combination of high dividend and high growth component stocks [2] - The management and custody fee rates for the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF are 0.15% and 0.05% per year, respectively, which are significantly lower than similar ETF products in the petrochemical sector, providing investors with a cost-effective investment opportunity [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index rose by 2.15% on January 28, with a year-to-date increase of 8.71%, and several constituent stocks such as Silver Nonferrous, China Aluminum, and others reached their daily limit [1] - The index has a significant representation from the non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals sectors, each accounting for over 8% [1] - Since December 2024, the index has undergone five adjustments, maintaining a strong focus on the oil and petrochemical and non-ferrous metal sectors, with the basic chemicals sector seeing a notable increase in weight during the last three adjustments [1] Group 2 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has been a core constituent in all five adjustments, representing about 10% of the index, with net cash flow from operating activities exceeding 200 billion yuan annually from 2022 to 2024 [1] - China Aluminum has also consistently been a significant constituent, with a weight exceeding 3% in the index [1] - The index shows a preference for the consumer manufacturing sector, with the home appliance sector consistently above 8%, and automotive becoming a major weight in the December 2025 adjustment, while the food and beverage sector's weight has decreased [1][2]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：风格迅速切换，怎么看 1 月 29 日，权益市场放量震荡。万得全 A下跌 0.23%，全天成交额 3.26 万亿元，较昨日（1 月 28 日）放量 2671 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.51%，恒生科技下跌 1.00%。南向资金净流入 43.74 亿港元，其中腾讯控 股、小米集团分别净流入 8.00 亿港元和 6.43 亿港元，中国移动和紫金矿业则净流出 6.46 亿港元和 3.77 亿港元。 日内风格和题材迅速轮动。早盘黄金股和油气资源高开，但随后快速回落；与此同时，AI应用迅速上涨， SW 传媒指数一度涨超 6%，科技成为上午行情的焦点。临近中午，有色行情迎来修复，稀土永磁板块领涨。值得 注意的是，上午地产板块同样走强，低位补涨成为交易线索，为下午的风格转换埋下伏笔。午后，市场风格由成 长转换到价值，白酒接力地产迅速走强，中证白酒指数全天大涨 9.79%，成分股除贵州茅台外全部涨停，同时贵 金属、AI应用、稀土行情均显著回落。 如何看待市场风格从科技迅速切换至白酒？其一， ...