Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production, indicating a significant increase in both production volume and year-on-year growth rates, which presents potential investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Industry Summary - As of April 2025, China's soda ash production reached 3.64 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, the total production of soda ash in China was 13.437 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 6.9% [1]. - The data indicates a positive trend in the soda ash industry, suggesting robust demand and potential for further expansion [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the soda ash sector include Yuanxing Energy (000683), Sanyou Chemical (600409), Shandong Haihua (000822), Shuanghuan Technology (000707), Chlor-Alkali Chemical (600618), Jinjing Technology (600586), Hubei Yihua (000422), Yuntu Holdings (002539), and Hebang Biotechnology (603077) [1]. - These companies may benefit from the increasing production and demand for soda ash, positioning them favorably in the market [1].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a decline in production and prices, with inventory levels increasing, indicating potential supply pressures and a cautious demand outlook [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Inventory - Chongqing Heyou Industrial has reduced operations at its 400,000 tons/year soda ash facility, while Tangshan Sanyou is operating at about 70% capacity at its 2.3 million tons/year facility. Shandong Haitai has resumed production at its 1.5 million tons/year facility [1]. - As of October 16, 2025, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 15,900 tons from the previous Monday, reflecting a rise of 0.94% [1]. - This week, domestic soda ash production was reported at 740,500 tons, a decrease of 30,300 tons, representing a decline of 3.93% [1]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - As of this week, the mainstream price range for light soda ash is between 930-1,600 RMB/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 940-1,480 RMB/ton. Most regions have seen price declines between 10-85 RMB/ton, with the northwest region experiencing a significant drop of 7.98% for heavy soda ash [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the current spot prices for soda ash are stable, with a slight decrease in supply but an increase in inventory. Demand remains steady, but market sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of new drivers in the futures market [2]. - Galaxy Futures notes that while soda ash production has slightly decreased, inventory accumulation indicates supply pressure. Despite a drop in futures prices, transaction volumes have increased, suggesting that the fundamental situation has not fundamentally improved, and policy uncertainties persist [3].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a decline, with the China Securities Index for the petrochemical industry down approximately 1.4%, indicating a challenging market environment for many companies in this sector [1] Industry Summary - The decline in the petrochemical industry is attributed to policy constraints leading to the gradual exit of some small independent refineries, alongside a peak in demand for refined oil products. This shift is expected to favor large integrated refining and chemical enterprises [1] - The pure soda ash industry is facing profitability pressures due to slowing demand growth and large-scale capacity waiting to be launched, exacerbated by ongoing policy guidance aimed at phasing out outdated capacities. Natural soda ash producers are anticipated to benefit from this trend [1] Company Summary - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Index for the petrochemical industry, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 61.93% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 30.84% of the index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Industry, Sinopec, CNOOC, Juhua Co., Zangge Mining, Kingfa Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, collectively representing 55.12% of the index [1]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 17 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 基本面来看，供应回落，库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Views - The glass industry is in a stage of oversupply, and it is necessary to reduce prices, compress profits, and cut production to ease industry contradictions. Suggest paying attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and subsequent changes in production lines on the supply side [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains prominent, with increasing supply pressure and relatively stable demand. There is a large pressure for inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to changes in soda ash supply and downstream demand [1]. - The losses of silicomanganese enterprises are intensifying, and both production and operating rates have declined. The demand from downstream maintains resilience, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Future attention should be paid to changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3]. - With the continuous compression of steel mill profits, the motivation for ferrosilicon production increase is insufficient. The downstream demand maintains resilience, the industry's supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Follow - up attention should be paid to cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies [3]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures market oscillated narrowly. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for rigid demand. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.35%, a 0.35% increase from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a 2.39% increase from the previous week, showing obvious inventory accumulation [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market oscillated. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid replenishment. This week, the soda ash output was 740,500 tons, a 3.93% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory slightly increased to 1.7005 million tons [1]. Double Silicon - **Silicomanganese**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. The final pricing of mainstream steel tenders was still under negotiation. The price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated upward, closing at 5,456 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, waiting for the standard set by Hebei Iron and Steel to guide the market. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,100 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 6,100 yuan/ton [3]. Strategies - **Glass**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillating [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global soda ash industry is at a critical period of green transformation, technological iteration, and structural reconfiguration, necessitating Chinese soda ash companies to closely monitor policy directions and develop proactive strategies for sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The soda ash supply side in China has seen continuous capacity expansion, while demand growth is slowing, indicating a need to explore new consumption growth points [1]. - The discovery and large-scale development of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia are changing the industry landscape and structure, with synthetic soda ash still accounting for over 70% of China's total capacity [2]. Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should optimize production processes to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness, while maintaining steady exports to stabilize the domestic market [1]. - Establishing long-term stable partnerships with downstream industry leaders in flat glass, daily-use glass, and detergents is essential for achieving supply-demand synergy [2]. Group 3: Technological and Market Development - The China Soda Ash Industry Association emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and green development to enhance industry sustainability and competitiveness [3]. - The association aims to regulate competitive behavior among companies to prevent disorderly price competition and promote higher quality and more efficient industry growth [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating upwards. In the medium - to - long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The market may first decline and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation [11]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and it may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested [15]. - The price of polysilicon rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on whether the policy can be implemented, and attention should be paid to risk control [17]. - The glass market lacks positive support and the sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.494%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) and 3190 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.217%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3230 yuan/ton and 3280 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small inventory reduction, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand increased, but inventory was still high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to narrow [2]. - Trump's new tariff remarks affected market sentiment, but the medium - to - long - term steel price trend remained unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand pattern was difficult to improve, and attention should be paid to policies around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 773.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.39% (- 3.00). The position increased by 27213 hands to 53.56 million hands. The weighted position was 88.95 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.32% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The terminal inventory pressure was high, and the iron ore price was under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5754 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed at 5456 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton [7][10]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's market. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to manganese ore disturbances. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The weighted position decreased by 463 hands to 429946 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were 9300 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively, with bases of 695 yuan/ton and 295 yuan/ton [14]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52575 yuan/ton, up 3.36%. The weighted position increased by 13651 hands to 278578 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 50.5 yuan/kg, 51.25 yuan/kg, and 52.75 yuan/kg (all unchanged) respectively, with a basis of 175 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to factors such as reduced supply in the dry season in the southwest, cost support, and relative undervaluation. It may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers [15]. - The polysilicon price rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on policy implementation. Attention should be paid to risk control [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59%. The spot prices in North China and Central China were 1210 yuan (down 10 yuan) and 1200 yuan (unchanged) respectively. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 6427.56 million boxes, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 24971 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 37494 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The spot price in Shahe was 1165 yuan, up 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 170.05 million tons, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 14282 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 7241 hands [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market has an expected increase in supply and a decrease in production cost, but the terminal demand is less than expected, and the market sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market has stable supply, weak demand, and light trading, and is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]