Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating weakly" [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient, and the congestion in logistics is expected to shift the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts. The domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. The unilateral short - term rebound is expected to be limited, and it will maintain an oscillating and weak trend later. The domestic supply - demand in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Supply - Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting period. As of January 24, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season was 6.6%, faster than the same period last year. However, there is a shipping delay due to a shortage of trucks. The pre - sale progress of new crops is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 25/26 season to reach 178 million tons, and the expected discount will face selling pressure [3] - Recently, the soybean - producing areas in Argentina have been dry, and the crop quality rate has declined. As of January 21, the proportion of good - rated soybean crops in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 53%. There is an expectation of rainfall recovery in the next two weeks [3] - According to domestic purchase and shipping situations, the expected arrival volume in February is 4.84 million tons, and in March is 4.7 million tons. The global rapeseed output in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of China - Canada trade policies [3] Demand - Recently, the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to decline seasonally. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory is at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the feed demand in the far - month is expected to shrink [3] - The pre - festival stocking of soybean meal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the pick - up performance is good. The trading and pick - up performance of rapeseed meal downstream is average [3] Inventory - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are seasonally decreasing, but are still at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased, and the domestic rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted [3] Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [3] Profit - The purchase and crushing profit of new domestic soybean crops is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [3] Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [3] Investment View - The investment view is "oscillating weakly". The domestic supply - demand in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Arbitrage: M3 - M5 reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [3] 2. Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products Inventory - Consumption Ratio - In January, the inventory - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 season were raised [27] - In January, the global rapeseed inventory - consumption ratio was lowered [33] Production and Sales - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased [71] - The US soybean export sales progress is slow [51] - The Brazilian soybean harvest rate is presented in the report [58] Price and Profit - The US soybean domestic crushing profit has increased [43] - The Canadian rapeseed CFR price and the import crushing profit are presented in the report [63] Other Data - Data such as the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean futures margin, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, and the import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in different months are presented in the report [60][65][67] - Data on the opening rate, crushing volume, trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of major domestic oil mills are presented in the report [79][82][83] - Data on the inventory of domestic imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major regions, the trading volume and pick - up volume of oil - mill rapeseed meal are presented in the report [86][94] - The cost - performance of soybean meal has declined [97] - Data on the feed monthly output, pig farming profit, pig price, chicken farming profit, egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. are presented in the report [100][102][110]

节前上冲动力不足，盘面震荡回调 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-02 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 行情回顾：基差走强 玉米主力合约基差走势 -400 -200 0 200 400 03/21 04/21 05/22 06/22 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/24 11/24 12/25 01/25 02/25 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:节前上冲动力不足，盘面震荡回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）目前东北基层售粮进度已达六成，同比偏快，春节前后或有一定卖压，但今年粮质偏干，中下游补库需求支撑下，卖压体现预期有限；（2）25/ ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has rebounded to 10.75% as of January 25, 2026, up 2.60% from January 11, 2026 [9] - The land premium rate has increased to 3.6% as of January 25, 2026, with a four-week average of 1.7% [4][13] - Container throughput at ports has shown a year-on-year increase of 7.7% as of January 26, 2026, despite a week-on-week decrease of 4.4% [4][22] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction - The sales of commercial residential properties remain below last year's Lunar New Year levels, with a year-on-year decrease of 20% in the week ending January 31, 2026 [4][13] - The construction industry shows weak performance, with the operating rate lower than last year's Lunar New Year period [4][20] Group 3: Trade and Prices - Agricultural products and oil prices have risen, with egg prices increasing by 3.1% and crude oil prices reaching $65.2 per barrel, up 6.8% [4][36] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has surged by 21.9%, indicating a significant increase in shipping costs [37] Group 4: Financial Markets - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference remains high at 3.91, indicating better relative value in stocks compared to bonds [11] - The DR007 rate has slightly increased to 1.5926% as of January 30, 2026, reflecting changes in liquidity conditions [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Performance**: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - **Domestic Factors**: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - **Commodity Views**: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Fed Policy**: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Nominee for Fed Chair**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - **Japan's Situation**: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Data**: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - **Tax Reform**: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - **Commodity Prices**: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]

据农业农村部监测，截至2月2日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.44元/公斤，较上周五 下降0.9%；鸡蛋平均价格为8.69元/公斤，较上周五上升0.8%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be sufficient, but logistics congestion may cause the selling pressure on Brazilian soybean discounts to be postponed. The production of Argentine soybeans may be affected by dry conditions, but rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] - The demand for soymeal shows a seasonal decline. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. The far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control. [10] - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, and the current inventory is still at a high level. The number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] - In the short term, the unilateral price of soymeal is expected to have limited rebound and will maintain a weak and volatile trend later. The domestic supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is expected to show a reverse spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Basis Data - On January 30th, the basis of 43% soymeal spot in Dalian was 453, up 15; in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang it was 373, up 15; in Tianjin it was 413, up 35; in Dongguan it was 353, up 35; in Zhanjiang it was 383, up 35; in Fangcheng it was 373. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 105, down 42. [4] - M3 - M2 was 294, unchanged; RM5 - 9 was - 19, down 11. [4] b. Inventory Data - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] c. International Supply Data - As of January 24th, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 6.6%, up 2.3% from last week and 3.2% faster than the same period last year. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian soybeans is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season to reach 178 million tons. [10] - As of January 21st, the proportion of good - rated soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 38% (last week's value was 61%, last year's same - period value was 26%), and rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] d. Domestic Demand Data - The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. Under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control, the far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink. The pre - holiday procurement of soymeal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the delivery performance is good. [10]

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-2 长江期货养殖产业月报 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 目 02 鸡蛋：供应压力仍存，盘面偏弱运行 录 03 玉米：供需相对平衡，盘面震荡运行 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 u 期现货：截至1月30日，全国生猪价格12.21元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.46元/公斤；河南生猪均价12.46元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.72元/公斤，03期货价格收于11220元/吨，较上月 底下跌575元/吨，跌幅4.87%；03合约基差1240元/吨，较上月底跌145元/吨。1月猪价先涨后跌，月均价重心抬升，因12月出栏超预期，1月中上旬企业出栏节奏偏慢，二育进 场和养殖端惜售，叠加中旬降温降雪天气，支撑价格上涨；下旬企业出栏节奏恢复，而春节备货尚早，终端需求不及预期，屠宰量下滑，猪价高位回落。期货主力03在宏观情绪 扰动下，跟随现货先扬后抑，03贴水收窄，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event "Guang Goods Go Global: Zhanpin Enters Changsha" marks a significant step in deepening collaboration between Guangdong and Hunan, showcasing Zhanjiang's seafood and agricultural products in the central China market [4][18][72]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event features a blend of intangible cultural heritage performances, food tasting, production and sales connections, and sports exchanges, highlighting Zhanjiang's entry into the Hunan market [6][7][18]. - The event aims to build a bridge for cooperation between Guangdong and Hunan, promoting mutual development [18][72]. Group 2: Cultural and Culinary Exchange - The event includes a cultural performance combining the "Danjia Fisherman's Song" and "Hunan Drum Dance," symbolizing the harmony of different cultures [12][14]. - Renowned chefs from Guangdong and Hunan collaborated to create fusion dishes, showcasing the unique flavors of Zhanjiang seafood and Hunan cuisine [30][39][42]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The event facilitated partnerships between Zhanjiang enterprises and 12 Hunan companies, resulting in a total contract value of 1.1 billion yuan [54][58]. - Zhanjiang's seafood products, including golden pomfret and shrimp, are expected to reach consumers in Changsha through a stable supply chain [59][60]. Group 4: Sports and Community Engagement - The event included a sports exchange segment, where football associations from Zhanjiang and Changsha exchanged signed footballs and jerseys, enhancing cultural ties through sports [62][65]. - This interaction reflects the integration of cultural, tourism, and sports industries between the two regions [65][73]. Group 5: Strategic Importance - The event is part of the provincial strategy "Guang Goods Go Global," positioning Zhanjiang as a key player in the central China market [23][24]. - It represents a critical step for Zhanjiang in expanding its development footprint and showcases Guangdong's role in promoting regional cooperation and complementary advantages [73][74].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Guangdong and Jilin provinces in agricultural sectors is deepening, showcasing a successful model of inter-provincial cooperation that enhances product exchange and market integration, particularly through events like the Jilin Winter Agricultural Expo [1][4][50]. Group 1: Event Highlights - The 16th Jilin (Changchun) Winter Agricultural Expo will take place from February 6-9, featuring numerous Guangdong enterprises presenting high-quality agricultural products to the Northeast [3][4]. - In 2023, Jilin selected 45 agricultural enterprises to showcase over 400 "Jilin brand" agricultural products, achieving a sales revenue of 207,400 yuan and a procurement intention of 31.462 million yuan during a promotional event in Shenzhen [17][19]. - The 21st China International Agricultural Products Trade Fair saw Jilin's 38 enterprises present nearly 500 agricultural products, generating a sales revenue of 1.37 million yuan and a signing amount of 36.87 million yuan [21][22]. Group 2: Cooperation Development - The cooperation between Guangdong and Jilin began with top-level design and has evolved into practical actions, with a focus on deepening strategic alignment and resource sharing [8][10]. - The "Four Shares" model proposed by Jilin includes sharing market systems, production workshops, storage cloud warehouses, and research platforms, aiming for deeper resource integration and cost control [34][35]. - The collaboration has transitioned from mere policy promotion to joint construction of bases, mutual recognition of standards, and brand co-development, marking a significant shift in partnership dynamics [12][13]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Looking ahead, the collaboration is expected to reach higher levels and broader fields, with events like the "Jilin Quality Livestock Products Spring Festival" in Shenzhen and Guangdong's participation in the 16th Jilin Winter Agricultural Expo [46][48]. - The ongoing efforts aim to create a sustainable and vibrant agricultural cooperation model that benefits both provinces, enhancing the quality of agricultural modernization [50].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8950 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9165 元/吨， 日涨幅 0.71%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 13143 吨，较上周减少 925 吨。样本点库存环比下 降。 2.周五河北特级红枣批发价 9.31 元/公斤，日环比+0.01 元/公斤。 3.周五广东如意坊市场到货车辆 6 车，日环比-1 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3317 张，日环比+4 张。 【市场逻辑】 上周红枣期价重心小幅抬升。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限， ...