Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily unfalsifiable [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents price changes of 24 - degree palm oil, first - grade soybean oil, and fourth - grade rapeseed oil in different regions on August 20, 2025, compared to August 19, 2025, with most showing a downward trend [1] - Due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic far - month rapeseed procurement progress is slow, and there are concerns about future rapeseed supply. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in August are about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrivals from September to October are about 130,000 tons [2] - The USDA report adjusted the US soybean new - crop area and yield. Although the yield per acre was raised to a historical high, the planting area was unexpectedly reduced, resulting in a lower - than - expected production [2] - The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean yield, and the good - to - excellent rates of US soybeans and corn are in line with market expectations [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Price - 24 - degree palm oil: On August 20, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9,660, 9,540, and 9,510 respectively, down 200 from August 19 [1] - First - grade soybean oil: On August 20, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,510, 8,630, and 8,610 respectively, down 200 from August 19 [1] - Fourth - grade rapeseed oil: On August 20, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,900, 9,950, and 10,160 respectively, down 130 from August 19 [1] Futures Data - The price difference between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 1,140 on August 20, 2025, down 26 from August 19 [1] - The price difference between rapeseed and soybean main contracts was 1,414 on August 20, 2025, up 90 from August 19 [1] - Palm oil warehouse receipts were 1,404 on August 20, 2025, down 16 from August 19; soybean oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,310; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,487 [1] Rapeseed - related Information - The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that there was dumping of imported Canadian rapeseed, and from August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed [2] Palm Oil - related Information - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: Palm oil production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - In Malaysia, from August 1 - 5, palm oil yield per unit decreased 17.27% month - on - month, and from August 1 - 10, exports increased 23.3% (ITS) and 23.7% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [2] Soybean - related Information - The USDA report raised the US soybean yield per acre to 53.6 bushels/acre but cut the 2025/26 planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a 43 - million - bushel reduction in production to 4.292 billion bushels [2] - As of the week ending August 10, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, and that of US corn was 72%, both in line with market expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant challenges faced by Greek agricultural exports, particularly feta cheese, table olives, and olive oil, due to increased tariffs imposed by the United States on EU products, which threaten the competitiveness and market access of these key products [1][2][3] Group 1: Feta Cheese Industry - Feta cheese, a key Greek product, has seen its exports to the U.S. grow to 9% of its total export market share in 2024, with an export value nearing 800 million euros [1] - The president of a prominent feta cheese company indicated that the new tariffs have forced them to abandon plans to expand into the U.S. market, as increased costs will likely deter American consumers [1] - The Greek Dairy Industry Association president noted that the new tariff policy will weaken the competitive edge of feta cheese in the U.S. market, prompting some producers to look towards emerging markets [1] Group 2: Olive and Olive Oil Industry - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Greek table olives from 10% to 15% since April, impacting the export value of table olives to the U.S., projected to reach 214 million euros in 2024, accounting for 28% of Greece's total olive exports [2] - Local olive growers expressed that the tariffs have severely affected their earnings, with one grower stating the direct impact on their profitability [2] - The president of the Greek Table Olive Production, Packaging, and Export Association mentioned that rising costs from tariffs are eroding profits across the supply chain, potentially limiting market access to the U.S. [2] - The Greek Olive Oil Standardization Industry Association noted that while the current export share of Greek olive oil to the U.S. is limited, the tariffs will inevitably increase prices and reduce competitiveness in the U.S. market [2] Group 3: Market Adaptation - Greek media analysis indicates that the U.S. market currently represents about 5% of Greece's overall exports, and the increased tariffs could severely undermine growth and future potential in key overseas markets [3] - In response to the tariff challenges, the Greek agricultural sector is exploring alternative markets to mitigate reliance on U.S. exports [3]

新华财经雅典8月21日电 通讯丨美国高关税下希腊农产品出口前路维艰 美国是希腊餐用橄榄的重要市场。希腊统计局数据显示，2024年，希腊餐用橄榄对美出口额达2.14亿欧 元，占其全球橄榄出口总额的28%。 伯罗奔尼撒半岛西南部的麦西尼亚地区，濒临爱奥尼亚海，以盛产卡拉马塔橄榄和优质橄榄油而闻名。 橄榄种植业占据当地农业重要份额，三分之一的橄榄相关产品用于出口。科斯塔斯·帕夫洛普洛斯是当 地橄榄种植者，他的家族三代都从事橄榄种植业。他在接受记者采访时直言："关税直接损害了我们的 收益，对种植者的影响巨大。" 希腊餐用橄榄生产、包装与出口协会主席科斯塔斯·祖卡斯表示："额外（关税）成本正在侵蚀供应链各 环节的利润。如果价格继续上涨，进入美国市场的机会恐将受到影响。" 希腊橄榄油标准化工业协会理事约戈斯·米特拉科斯表示，尽管目前希腊橄榄油对美出口份额有限，但 美国加征关税将不可避免地推高售价，削弱希腊橄榄油在美市场竞争力。当地出口商未来可能不得不转 向其他市场。 新华社记者陈刚 自美国对欧盟商品加征关税以来，菲达奶酪、餐用橄榄和橄榄油等希腊标志性农产品出口面临严峻考 验。新华社记者日前采访当地乳制品生产商、橄榄种植业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures face downward pressure due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are expected to seek support at around 9200 yuan [1]. - For soybean oil, the policy on small refiner exemptions in the US may affect its industrial demand. Domestically, the spot price has fallen with the market, but the basis quote is expected to rise due to increased consumption during the Mid - Autumn Festival and the start of the school term [1]. Grains and Meals - For grains and meals, the bottom range has shifted upward, and the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to take the opportunity to lay out long - term long positions [3]. Corn - Corn is at the stage of new and old crop alternation. The market sentiment is weak due to sufficient imports and the upcoming new crop. In the short - term, the demand is hard to improve significantly, and the market is expected to remain volatile and weak. In the medium - term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decline, and the supply pressure is obvious [6]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has stabilized. With the start of school and cooler weather in the Northeast, consumption has increased, and the market sentiment is turning bullish. However, there may be a wave of concentrated slaughtering before the double festivals, and there is more uncertainty in the far - end market. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Sugar - There is a risk of downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. It is difficult for raw sugar to fall sharply in the short - term. With the increase in the destocking progress in Guangxi, the domestic sugar price is expected to remain volatile, and the downward momentum has weakened [10]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to tight old - crop inventory and low imports. However, with the upcoming new - crop listing and the expected increase in production, the far - end market is under pressure [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is stable, and the market is moving slowly. The inventory of laying hens is large, and the supply of cold - storage eggs may increase the supply pressure. Egg prices are expected to remain bearish [12]. 3. Summary by Categories Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: On August 20, the price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8630 yuan, down 200 yuan or 2.27% from the previous day. The basis of Y2601 decreased by 88 yuan or 31.88%. The inventory of palm oil remained unchanged at 15,310 [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 soybean oil was 9900 yuan on August 20, down 130 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day. The basis of OI601 decreased by 133 yuan or 100.76% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 10030 yuan on August 20, down 130 yuan or 1.30% from the previous day. The basis of OI601 decreased by 1 yuan [1]. Grains and Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3070 yuan. The price of M2601 decreased by 1 yuan or 0.03%. The basis increased by 1 yuan or 1.10%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans for the October shipment decreased by 33 yuan or 36.7% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 40 yuan or 1.51% to 2610 yuan. The price of RM2601 increased by 23 yuan or 0.88%. The basis decreased by 63 yuan or 136.96% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3950 yuan. The price of the main soybean contract decreased by 10 yuan or 0.25%. The basis increased by 10 yuan or 10.42% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 remained unchanged at 2170 yuan. The price of Jinzhou Port FOB decreased by 50 yuan or 2.16%. The basis decreased by 50 yuan or 35.71%. The import profit decreased by 20 yuan or 4.26% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 increased by 9 yuan or 0.36% to 2489 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan or 3.91% [6]. Pigs - **Futures**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 125 yuan or 0.90% to 13775 yuan. The basis increased by 90 yuan or 25.71% [8]. - **Spot**: The price of pigs in Henan remained unchanged at 13850 yuan, while the price in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan to 15240 yuan [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 15 yuan or 0.26% to 5661 yuan. The price of Sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan or 1.72% [10]. - **Spot**: The price of Nanning sugar decreased by 10 yuan or 0.17% to 5970 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) decreased by 43 yuan or 0.95% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 decreased by 20 yuan or 0.14% to 13800 yuan. The price of Cotton 2601 decreased by 45 yuan or 0.32% to 14055 yuan [11]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton remained unchanged at 15080 yuan. The CC Index: 3128B decreased by 3 yuan or 0.02% to 15240 yuan [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract decreased by 17 yuan or 0.57% to 2983 yuan. The price of the Egg 10 contract increased by 7 yuan or 0.23% to 3072 yuan [12]. - **Spot**: The price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan or 0.41% to 3.30 yuan per catty [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing urgency of the Trump administration to secure soybean orders from China, as Brazil is rapidly capturing the Chinese market share previously held by the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - In 2016, the U.S. accounted for over 40% of China's soybean imports, but this share has significantly declined due to ongoing trade tensions [1]. - Trump has publicly requested China to triple its soybean orders from the U.S., indicating a desperate attempt to regain market share [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing a crisis, with exports dropping and domestic supply not being as robust as previously claimed [1][3]. Group 2: Brazil's Growing Influence - Brazil has increased its soybean exports to China, now capturing 70% of the market, while U.S. exports have dwindled to 20% [5]. - The Brazilian government, under President Lula, is actively seeking to strengthen agricultural ties with China, positioning itself as a reliable supplier [5]. - Brazil is also eyeing opportunities in the beef market, as U.S. beef exporters face challenges in renewing export qualifications to China [5]. Group 3: Trade Negotiation Implications - Trump's mention of reducing the trade deficit suggests a willingness to negotiate, potentially offering concessions in tariff discussions if China increases its orders [7]. - The article points out the double standards in U.S. trade policy, where the U.S. seeks to force China to buy its agricultural products while simultaneously trying to reduce dependency on Chinese goods [7]. - The call for the U.S. to remove unreasonable tariffs on China is presented as a solution to stabilize trade relations and restore mutual trust [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both the apple and red date industries are rated as neutral [3][8] 2. Core Views - For the apple industry, the current remaining inventory in production areas is low, and the expected new - season output shows little change compared to last year. The apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] - For the red date industry, in the case where the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, with the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in new - season production is less than expected, prices may return to a weak state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8064 yuan/ton, a change of - 86 yuan/ton or - 1.06% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 464 in Shandong and AP10 + 936 in Shaanxi both increased by 86 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price fell yesterday. The supply of early - maturing Gala apples increased significantly with a polarized price. The inventory apple market remained dull, with a high proportion of large and high - quality fruits. The quality of new - season fruits and price changes of early - maturing apples should be monitored [2] - Last week, it was difficult to organize a large quantity of high - quality early - maturing fruits in western production areas, providing some sales space for inventory apples. However, due to poor consumption, the overall sales speed was slow. Currently, the inventory is at a low level, supporting the price of inventory apples. The poor quality of early - maturing apples led to slow sales of both early - maturing and inventory apples last week. The low price of new - season Fuji apples reduced the profit of merchants [2] - This week, early - maturing varieties such as Shaanbei Gala and Shandong Luli and Jinduhong will be listed, which may squeeze the inventory apple market. It is expected that the inventory reduction of apples will slow down this week, and the price of Gala apples in some areas may decline [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Due to the low inventory in production areas and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year, the apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11530 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton or - 0.17% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1930 increased by 20 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The main production areas have entered the fruit - swelling period and started to sweeten. There has been occasional light rain in the production areas, and the frequency may increase in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there are abnormal weather conditions and their impact on red dates [7] - In the production areas, the fruit - setting of the first crop of flowers in some date orchards was average, but the temperature drop and rainfall in early July led to good fruit - setting of the second and third crops of flowers. In August, strong winds in some areas caused a small amount of fruit drop in date orchards. Attention should be paid to weather changes [7] - In the sales areas, the spot price is strong, and downstream merchants replenish their stocks as needed, with an improved trading atmosphere. Since June, the market has been trading based on the expectation of a reduction in new - season production, and is highly sensitive to abnormal weather in production areas. Currently, the game between bulls and bears has intensified, and there are significant differences in the expected new - season production of red dates [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the case where the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, with the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in new - season production is less than expected, prices may return to a weak state [8]

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestically, although the current economic growth shows a marginal slowdown, there's no need for excessive worry. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and if economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and policy signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.15 - 7.23 in the short - term, with the area below 7.20 likely to be the main operating range. The US dollar index may remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting further guidance from the Jackson Hole Meeting [4]. - For stock indices, short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and it is expected to hover near the pressure line for some time. It is advisable to hold positions and use options for hedging [7]. - For treasury bonds, the bond market is still moving in tandem with the stock market, and the trading sentiment is weak. Conservative investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can make small - scale purchases [8]. - For container shipping, the EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [11]. Summary by Directory Macro - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals, and Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1793 on the previous trading day, up 27 basis points. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk [3]. Stock Indices - Yesterday, stock indices rose with reduced volume, and small and medium - cap stocks were relatively strong. Overnight, US stocks continued to fall, and the US dollar index declined. Foreign capital may continue to flow into A - shares, but risk appetite may decline [7]. Treasury Bonds - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher and then fluctuated, and weakened in the afternoon due to the stock market hitting a new high. The central bank announced an additional 100 billion yuan in re - loans for agriculture and small businesses [8]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European line) futures prices first oscillated slightly downward and then rebounded. Some new sailings of MSK had slightly higher spot cabin quotes [9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. Technically, the short - term sentiment has improved, and it is advisable to buy on dips [14]. - For copper, it may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to oscillate; for alumina, it may oscillate weakly; for cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to oscillate. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum can be considered for arbitrage [19]. - For zinc, it is mainly expected to oscillate in the short - term [22]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they declined due to the impact of the broader market. They are affected by macro factors and the fundamentals of the industry [23]. - For tin, it is mainly expected to oscillate [25]. - For lithium carbonate, the price may rebound temporarily and then enter a weakening channel. In the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month futures contracts on rallies [26]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly in the future [28]. - For lead, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to high overseas inventory [30]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - On Wednesday, the precious metals market stopped falling and rebounded. The CME "FedWatch" data showed the probabilities of Fed interest rate decisions in September, October, and December. It is advisable to buy on dips for gold and silver [12][13][14]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index declined slightly on Wednesday. First Quantum's Kansanshi copper mine expansion project is expected to significantly increase copper production [16]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The US expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 20300 - 20800. Alumina is in a state of oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support [18][19]. Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is advisable to consider an internal - external reverse arbitrage [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The main contracts of nickel and stainless steel declined. Spot prices and inventory data are provided, and the market is affected by the broader market and industry fundamentals [23]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index declined slightly on Wednesday. In July, China's refined tin imports increased and exports decreased. The delay in Myanmar's tin mine resumption has supported tin prices [24]. Lithium Carbonate - On Wednesday, the lithium carbonate futures main contract limit - downed. The lithium ore market sentiment slowed down, and the lithium salt market shipments increased. The price may rebound temporarily and then weaken [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The government held a photovoltaic industry symposium. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to increase, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. Lead - The previous trading day, lead prices were weak due to a significant increase in LME inventory. The supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected to oscillate [30]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For steel products, the short - term market has stopped falling and stabilized, but the fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, it is expected to oscillate with reduced volatility, and its price may be stronger than that of steel products in the short - term [37]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and investors should pay attention to risk prevention [40]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply pressure is increasing, and there is a possibility of a shift from inventory reduction to inventory accumulation [42]. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, steel product prices stopped falling and rebounded. Coal mines are resuming production, and Tangshan's production restriction intensity has increased. The supply of steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing [32][33]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market was generally weak, but rebounded in the afternoon. Steel production has been suppressed, and the iron ore price may oscillate [35][37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal's static supply - demand is in a tight balance, and coke's supply has perturbation factors. The market may fluctuate with sentiment, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventories [38][40]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand has no obvious improvement. The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [41]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the overnight market rose slightly, but it will continue to adjust weakly in the short - term. The medium - term risk of a downward break is increasing [44]. - For LPG, the fundamentals remain loose, and the market is affected by news. It is in a state of oscillation [46]. - For PX - PTA, it is advisable to buy on dips to expand the processing margin. In the medium - term, PTA's low processing margin will drive changes [48]. - For MEG, it is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips near the cost. In the long - term, the performance of the polyester peak season needs to be observed [51]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near future, and future attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [53]. - For PE, the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [55]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene may oscillate in the short - term, and for styrene, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [56][58]. - For fuel oil, the short - term driving force of domestic FU is downward [60]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [61]. - For asphalt, the unilateral price is weakly retracting, and the peak season shows no excessive performance. Future attention should be paid to specific measures for the asphalt industry chain [62]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, RU2601 is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see for the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage and buy on dips to expand the price difference between light and dark rubber [67]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [69]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [70]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance, and future attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [71]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, crude oil futures prices rose. The EIA report showed a significant decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory. Geopolitical factors are weakening the support for crude oil [43][44]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand has slightly improved. The market is affected by news [45][46]. PX - PTA - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. PX supply may increase, and PTA's processing margin is at a low level. The downstream demand is expected to improve [47][48]. MEG - MEG prices rose. The supply - demand is in a fragile balance, and it is expected to remain strong in the short - term [49][51]. PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. PE - PE prices rose. The supply may decrease in September, and the demand is in the process of recovery from the off - season to the peak season [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's supply and demand are both increasing, and it may oscillate in the short - term. Styrene's supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand surplus is decreasing [56][58]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is weak. The export has eased, the feed demand is strengthening, and the power generation demand is weakening [60]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil supply was low in July, and the demand was weak. The short - term cracking spread has stabilized, and it is advisable to wait and see [61]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices are weakening. The supply is stable, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortage. The cost pressure is expected to ease [62]. Rubber and 20 - Grade Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded. The import is increasing steadily, and the inventory pressure is high. The demand is facing challenges, and the cost support is strong [64][67]. Urea - Urea prices rose. The export may boost the price, but the agricultural demand is weakening. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate [68][69]. Soda Ash - Soda ash prices fell. The supply remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a historical high. Attention should be paid to cost factors [70]. Glass - Glass prices fell. The supply is stable, the demand is in a weak balance, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to policy and sentiment changes [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions. It shows a complex economic situation with various factors influencing different markets, such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%). The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, lower than the previous month (50.5%) and similar to the same period last year (50.2%) [1]. - In July 2025, M1 had a year - on - year growth of 5.6%, up from 4.6% in the previous month and a significant improvement from - 2.6% in the same period last year. M2 grew by 8.8% year - on - year, higher than the previous month (8.3%) and the same period last year (6.3%) [1]. - The CPI in July 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year. The PPI in July was - 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% in the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5%. The stability is due to the unchanged 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the pricing basis for LPR [2]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. Metals - On August 20, international precious metal futures generally rose. Policy differences within the Fed and uncertainties in the inflation outlook brought volatility to the precious metal market. The SPDR Gold Trust's (GLD) holdings decreased by 0.42% (4.01 tons) to 958.20 tons as of August 20 [4][5]. - On August 19, tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 1715 tons, zinc inventory decreased to a new low in over 1 year and 9 months (71250 tons), copper inventory reached a new high in over 2 months (156350 tons), and lead inventory decreased by 1850 tons [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In Shandong, coke prices were planned to increase on August 19. The resumption of production of Yichun Yinli led to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures. The US expanded the tariff list for steel and aluminum derivatives, which may have a greater impact on China's indirect exports [6]. - India's coal production in July decreased by 12.3% year - on - year, natural gas production decreased by 3.2%, and steel production increased by 12.8% [6]. Energy and Chemicals - On August 20, the main contract of US crude oil rose. The significant decline in US crude oil inventory and the expected recovery of Asian demand supported oil prices. The market's concern about the increase in Russian oil supply eased [8]. Agricultural Products - India exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30. US exporters sold 228606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Datagro estimated Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [9]. Financial News Open Market - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 49.75 billion yuan after 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. Key News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three months. It is expected that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in early Q4, which may drive down LPR [11]. - The US Treasury Secretary was satisfied with the current tariff level on China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs hoped that the US would work with China to achieve positive results in economic and trade consultations [11]. Bond Market - The stock market's rebound in the afternoon suppressed the bond market. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose by 1 - 2bp, and most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations eased the liquidity tightness [16]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1793 against the US dollar at 16:30, and the central parity rate was 7.1384. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.25 in New York trading [21]. Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believed that the "anti - involution" market could still be expected. It suggested investors pay attention to certain convertible bonds such as Wanfu Convertible Bond and Tong 22 Convertible Bond [22][23]. - CITIC Securities recommended the credit sector with "defensive" attributes, especially AA - and above rated city and rural commercial bank perpetual and subordinated bonds [23]. Stock Market - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% to 3766.21 points and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.89%. The semiconductor industry chain led the rise, while some concepts such as stock trading software and brain - computer interface adjusted [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.17% to 25165.94 points. The securities sector has performed well since August, with the industry index rising over 7% and 8 stocks rising over 10% [26]. - As the A - share semi - annual report disclosure entered the intensive period, over 140 companies announced semi - annual dividend plans, with a total planned dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the short - term, some markets may experience increased volatility, but the long - term direction depends on factors such as policy support, supply - demand balance, and cost changes [3][6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, causing price fluctuations in related commodities, and the market is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals after the emotional impact fades [31]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance [31]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - The government has issued policies on local government project implementation and merger - acquisition loans. Some companies have new developments, and there are expectations of stock selling by Buffett [2]. - The basis ratios of different term contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are given. The market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous rises, but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased on Wednesday. The Ministry of Finance will issue RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and there is a policy on tax exemption for childcare subsidies [4]. - The central bank conducted a large - scale reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net investment of 4975 billion yuan. The economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver rose. Trump's team pressured the Fed's independence, which led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will significantly affect the prices of precious metals. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech, and if it is dovish, consider going long on silver [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The export volume in July was high, and the apparent consumption was weaker than expected. The LME inventory increased, and the copper price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic copper spot import was profitable, and the scrap copper substitution advantage decreased slightly. The copper price may consolidate and wait for Powell's speech for further guidance [10]. Aluminum - The domestic black - series commodities first declined and then rebounded. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price recovered after a decline. The external market was under some pressure, but the domestic aluminum price still had support due to low inventory and strong export data, and it may turn to a shock pattern in the short - term [12]. Zinc - The zinc price increased slightly. The zinc ore inventory decreased marginally, but the zinc concentrate TC was still rising. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots was increasing, and the LME market's structural disturbance was receding. The zinc price still had a large downward risk [13]. Lead - The lead price decreased. The lead ore inventory was tight, and the processing fee was declining. The supply and demand of the lead industry were both weak, and the lead price was expected to run weakly [14]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price had limited upward momentum, and the MHP supply was short. The downstream stainless - steel demand improvement was limited, but the nickel price had support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [15][16]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated narrowly. The supply was short - term tight, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The tin price was expected to fluctuate as the Myanmar复产 continued [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium decreased significantly. The sentiment of long - looking funds supported by supply disturbances cooled down, and the price support level was expected to rise in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the import of lithium salts and lithium ores [18]. Alumina - The alumina index increased. The supply of domestic and foreign ores was disturbed, and the futures price had limited downward space after a sharp decline. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price decreased. The decline was mainly affected by low - price selling by some arbitrage institutions. The downstream procurement was cautious, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of the casting aluminum alloy contract decreased slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, and the supply and demand were both weak. The cost had strong support, but the upward resistance was increasing [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - The price of the rebar main contract increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price decreased slightly. The export of steel continued to be weakly volatile. The demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline [23][24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased. The steel mill's iron production increased, and the port and steel mill inventory increased. The terminal demand was weak, and the iron ore price may be adjusted in the short - term [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price decreased, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand had not improved significantly. The glass price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long - term [28]. - The soda - ash price decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The soda - ash price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space was limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The "anti - involution" policy had an impact on the market, but the fundamental situation of over - supply of manganese silicon did not change. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [30][31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon price decreased. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The production in the southwest region increased rapidly, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [33][34]. - The polysilicon price decreased slightly. The production increased, the inventory removal was limited, and the price was expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU decreased and then recovered. The long - and short - sides have different views. The tire enterprise's operating rate showed different trends, and the natural rubber inventory decreased. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, and the INE crude oil price decreased. The U.S. crude oil commercial inventory decreased, and the SPR increased. The current oil price was undervalued, and it was a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [43]. Methanol - The methanol price increased. The coal price increased, and the supply pressure was large. The demand was weak in the short - term but may improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - The urea price decreased. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was average. The enterprise profit was low, and the price fluctuation was narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The styrene price increased. The macro - sentiment was good, the cost had support, the port inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The styrene price was expected to follow the cost and fluctuate upward [46]. PVC - The PVC price increased. The cost was stable, the supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation pressure was large. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Glycol - The glycol price increased. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand recovered slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The valuation was relatively high, and the fundamental situation may turn weak [49]. PTA - The PTA price increased. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, the demand improved slightly, and the processing fee had limited space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [50][51]. p - Xylene - The p - xylene price increased. The load increased, the downstream PTA had more short - term maintenance, and the inventory was expected to decrease. The valuation was neutral, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price increased. The market expected favorable policies, the cost had support, the inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price increased. The production profit rebounded, the supply may increase, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the price was expected to follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate upward [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price generally increased. The market was expected to have a supply - demand game in the third - quarter end. The short - term strategy is to buy at low prices, the medium - term is to pay attention to the upper pressure, and the long - term is to use the reverse - spread strategy [56]. Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable and partly decreased. The supply was large, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to be mostly down and partly stable. The short - term disk may fluctuate, and the medium - term is to pay attention to short - position opportunities after the rebound [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The U.S. soybean price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic soybean meal price followed the external cost and fluctuated. The soybean import cost was stable and slightly increased, and the domestic supply was seasonally excessive. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low position [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The domestic three major oils fluctuated. The demand and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided support. The palm oil price was expected to be above 4300 ringgit per ton in the short - term. The overall oil price was expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space was limited [60][61][62]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The international sugar production may increase, and the domestic import supply will increase. The Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased slightly. The USDA report was favorable, and the suspension of tariffs was positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption was average, and the cotton price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [64][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, while summer cold - drink consumption boosts seasonal demand. Sugar imports have recently increased significantly due to the expanding price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is expected to remain within the expected range [1] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The growth progress is earlier than usual. High - temperature and low - precipitation conditions in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August may increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The decreasing commercial inventory and the upcoming peak season for cotton textile support cotton prices [1] Data Summary Price Data - **Foreign Futures Prices**: On August 18 - 19, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $16.24 to $16.3, a 0.37% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.84 to $67.53, a 0.46% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.06%, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 8.70%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 11.82%, SR09 - 01 decreased by 14.06%, and the basis of sugar contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, CF01 - 05 decreased by 50.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 1.96%, CF09 - 01 decreased by 5.08%, and the basis of cotton contracts all increased to varying degrees [3] Import - Related Data - **Import Price**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased by 0.19% [3] - **Profit Space**: From August 18 to 19, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged [3] Option Data - For sugar option SR601C5700, the implied volatility is 0.083, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.19; for SR601P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0844. For cotton option CF601C14000, the implied volatility is 0.1017, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61; for CF601P14000, the implied volatility is 0.1056 [3] Inventory Data - From August 18 to 19, 2025, the number of sugar inventory warrants decreased by 2.63%, and the number of cotton inventory warrants decreased by 2.14% [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [8]