Core Viewpoint - During the Spring Festival holiday, Qingdao's price monitoring teams actively monitored market prices to ensure the stability of essential goods, reporting that supply was sufficient and promotions were orderly [1] Price Trends - Rice prices decreased, with the average price of first-grade long-grain rice at 3.23 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.31% from the previous period, up 0.31% year-on-year, and down 1.82% compared to last year [2] - Flour prices remained stable at 2.36 yuan, unchanged from the previous period and last month, but down 1.67% year-on-year [2] - Wheat prices held steady at 1.22 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.39% [2] - Corn prices remained at 1.12 yuan, up 6.67% year-on-year [2] Cooking Oil Prices - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil was 120.53 yuan, down 0.17% from the previous period, down 0.40% month-on-month, and down 0.95% year-on-year [3] - The average price of 5-liter bottled soybean oil was 60.34 yuan, down 0.07% from the previous period, unchanged month-on-month, and down 0.08% year-on-year [3] - Soybean prices remained stable at 4.27 yuan, down 1.84% year-on-year [3] - Peanut kernel prices increased to 7.52 yuan, up 0.80% from the previous period and up 1.76% year-on-year [3] Livestock Prices - The average price of live pigs was 6.05 yuan, down 3.82% from the previous period, down 10.24% month-on-month, and down 20.81% year-on-year [4] - The average price of pork belly was 14.74 yuan, down 0.07% from the previous period, up 3.88% month-on-month, and down 9.96% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lean pork was 15.07 yuan, up 0.07% from the previous period, up 2.45% month-on-month, and down 6.92% year-on-year [4] - The average price of beef was 38.42 yuan, up 0.23% from the previous period, up 2.62% month-on-month, and up 11.46% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lamb was 42.17 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous period, up 1.54% month-on-month, and down 1.79% year-on-year [4] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs was 4.00 yuan, down 3.85% from the previous period, down 1.72% month-on-month, and up 1.27% year-on-year [5] - The monitored market showed a price range for eggs from 3.95 yuan to 4.02 yuan [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas financial market during the Spring Festival holiday in 2026 revolved around three main lines: AI industry changes, geopolitical games, and tariff policy reconstruction. The follow - up needs to focus on how the Trump administration switches tariff tools overseas and the situation within the 301 tariff framework domestically. The probability of major risk events in the short - term is low due to the possible Sino - US summit [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, although the US economic fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated and the US political situation is chaotic, the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable. After the holiday, the linkage between the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index is expected to strengthen, and there are still positive factors supporting the RMB's long - term appreciation [3]. - The stock index is likely to strengthen after the holiday due to the combination of internal and external factors during the Spring Festival. The domestic financial data in January exceeded expectations, and the historical law shows that the A - share market has a high probability of rising after the Spring Festival [7]. - For treasury bonds, after the holiday, attention should be paid to risk sentiment and the trend of the A - share market. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in a small amount, and short - term value is not high [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may push up the operating costs and risk premiums of the container shipping industry. The market will focus on whether the traditional small peak of shipments in March can be realized [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the demand in March is strong, and the processing fee may strengthen marginally [13]. - For the aluminum industry chain, electrolytic aluminum is still optimistic in the long - term, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation after the holiday. Alumina is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum [15]. - For copper, it is mainly in a volatile state in the short - term, and it is expected to break through and rise in the medium - term [17]. - For zinc, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The macro and fundamental factors have different impacts on the price [19]. - For nickel, the supply - side structure continues to adjust, and the overseas market is in a volatile and strengthening repair state [21]. - For tin, it follows the precious metals and runs strongly in the short - to - medium - term [24]. - For lead, it fluctuates under the influence of multiple events [26]. - For oilseeds, the US soybean may enter a high - level wide - range shock period, and the domestic soybean meal is in a short - term long and medium - term short trend [32]. - For oils and fats, the domestic oils and fats are expected to rise after the holiday [33]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the short - term pricing core is still the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, and the market will continue to fluctuate greatly [36]. - For asphalt, the market will follow the cost - end crude oil to fluctuate [37]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation still exists in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to relevant investigations and details [41]. - For gold and silver, maintain a strategic bullish position, and pay attention to the repair opportunity of the gold - silver ratio [46]. - For pulp and offset paper, the market is affected by multiple factors, and interval trading can be maintained [50]. - For LPG, the short - term pricing is mainly dominated by the US - Iran situation [53]. - For PTA - PX, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips. Pay attention to the return plan of parking devices and do short on the processing fee on rallies [57]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate strongly along with the cost end, and pay attention to the geopolitical influence of Iran [60]. - For methanol, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy has a good risk - return ratio [63]. - For rubber, the price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand expectation and domestic weather conditions [65]. - For urea, it is advisable to buy at a low level [66]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to - long - term, and the glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [68]. - For propylene, the cost increase and fundamental situation bring upward driving force to the market [70]. - For steel products, the price maintains a volatile and weak trend, and the price of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test the lower support level of the shock range after the holiday [72]. - For iron ore, the valuation has decreased, the negative factors have been released, and attention can be paid to low - buying or positive spread opportunities [73]. - For coking coal and coke, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of mines and blast - furnace steel mills after the Spring Festival [77]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they continue to be in a volatile and weak state [78]. - For live pigs, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [80]. - For cotton, it is advisable to arrange long positions on callbacks but not to chase up, and pay attention to the demand situation after the holiday and the US tariff policy [83]. - For sugar, the upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [86]. - For eggs, it will maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and the price center may rise in the medium - term [88]. - For apples, the short - term demand weakness has a suppressing effect on the market, but the decline space is limited [93]. - For red dates, the supply pattern is loose, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Multiple events affected the market, including AI - related employment concerns, Trump's tariff policies, the Iran issue, and strong domestic tourism data during the Spring Festival [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: The overseas financial market during the Spring Festival holiday revolved around three main lines, and attention should be paid to overseas tariff tool switching and domestic 301 tariff framework [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US economic fundamentals did not significantly deteriorate, and the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable. After the holiday, the linkage with the US dollar index is expected to strengthen [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.88 level [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is likely to strengthen after the holiday due to the combination of internal and external factors during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to risk sentiment and the A - share market trend. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in a small amount [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: Geopolitical factors may push up the costs of the container shipping industry, and attention should be paid to the shipment peak in March [10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand in March is strong, and the processing fee may strengthen marginally [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Electrolytic aluminum is optimistic in the long - term and may fluctuate after the holiday. Alumina is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum [15]. - **Copper**: It is mainly volatile in the short - term and expected to rise in the medium - term [17]. - **Zinc**: The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues, affected by macro and fundamental factors [19]. - **Nickel**: The supply - side structure adjusts, and the overseas market is in a volatile and strengthening repair state [21]. - **Tin**: It follows the precious metals and runs strongly in the short - to - medium - term [24]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates under the influence of multiple events [26]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US soybean may enter a high - level wide - range shock period, and the domestic soybean meal is in a short - term long and medium - term short trend [32]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats are expected to rise after the holiday [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The short - term pricing core is the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, and the market will continue to fluctuate greatly [36]. - **Asphalt**: The market will follow the cost - end crude oil to fluctuate [37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The bull market foundation still exists in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to relevant investigations and details [41]. - **Gold and Silver**: Maintain a strategic bullish position, and pay attention to the repair opportunity of the gold - silver ratio [46]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The market is affected by multiple factors, and interval trading can be maintained [50]. - **LPG**: The short - term pricing is mainly dominated by the US - Iran situation [53]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips. Pay attention to the return plan of parking devices and do short on the processing fee on rallies [57]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly along with the cost end, and pay attention to the geopolitical influence of Iran [60]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy has a good risk - return ratio [63]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand expectation and domestic weather conditions [65]. - **Urea**: It is advisable to buy at a low level [66]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to - long - term, and the glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [68]. - **Propylene**: The cost increase and fundamental situation bring upward driving force to the market [70]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price maintains a volatile and weak trend, and the price of the main contracts may test the lower support level of the shock range after the holiday [72]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation has decreased, the negative factors have been released, and attention can be paid to low - buying or positive spread opportunities [73]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of mines and blast - furnace steel mills after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They continue to be in a volatile and weak state [78]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [80]. - **Cotton**: It is advisable to arrange long positions on callbacks but not to chase up, and pay attention to the demand situation after the holiday and the US tariff policy [83]. - **Sugar**: The upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [86]. - **Eggs**: It will maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and the price center may rise in the medium - term [88]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand weakness has a suppressing effect on the market, but the decline space is limited [93]. - **Red Dates**: The supply pattern is loose, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [5][9] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot market was stagnant during the Spring Festival. Although the domestic demand for U.S. soybean crushing was strong, the new U.S. tariff issue may affect U.S. soybean exports, causing a decline in U.S. soybean prices. The U.S. may increase soybean planting area in the new season. In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest has slowed slightly, but the new - season harvest is still expected to be abundant, which will bring supply pressure to China. In China, post - holiday snow may affect transportation. For corn, after the Spring Festival, the supply may increase as farmers and traders start selling, but snow and potential "late spring cold" may affect transportation and wheat production. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises after the holiday may support corn prices, and the market will continue to fluctuate [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - On February 13, the closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton or 2.38%. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton or 3.13%. In the spot market, the bean meal prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3070 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton), and 3060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) respectively. The rapeseed meal price in Fujian was 2420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 International Situation - As of the second week of February 2026, Brazil had shipped 269.3 million tons of soybeans, compared with 642.8 million tons in February last year. The daily shipping volume was 26.9 million tons, a 16.22% decrease from 32.1 million tons in February last year. As of the week of February 18, 75% of the soybean crops were rated normal to good, up from 68% a week ago and the same as last year; 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions, up from 56% a week ago and down from 70% last year [1] 3.1.3 Domestic Situation - In the 6th week of 2026, domestic oil mills received 26.9 ships of soybeans (about 174.85 million tons). The actual soybean crushing volume was 248.4 million tons, an increase of 18.79 million tons from the previous week and 11.24 million tons higher than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 68.33%. The soybean inventory of domestic oil mills decreased to 567.04 million tons, a decrease of 68.46 million tons or 10.77% from the previous week, and an increase of 1.01 million tons or 0.18% year - on - year. The bean meal inventory increased to 99.21 million tons, an increase of 6.17 million tons or 6.63% from the previous week, and an increase of 56.91 million tons or 134.54% year - on - year. In the week before February 12, the total bean meal transaction volume was 35.25 million tons, a decrease of 69.58 million tons from the previous week. The daily average transaction volume was 7.05 million tons, a decrease of 13.92 million tons or 66.71% from the previous week. The total bean meal pick - up volume was 85.53 million tons, an increase of 14.44 million tons from the previous week. The daily average pick - up volume was 17.11 million tons, a decrease of 2.89 million tons or 14.44% from the previous week [2] 3.1.4 Rapeseed Meal Supply - As of February 6, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from the previous period. The rapeseed oil output was 0.41 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons. The rapeseed meal output was 0.59 million tons, an increase of 0.47 million tons. The rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 0.21 million tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons. The rapeseed meal pick - up volume was 0.39 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - On February 13, the closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton or 1.8%. The closing price of the starch 2605 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 44 yuan/ton or 1.7%. In the spot market, the corn price at Bayuquan Port was 2340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The corn starch price in Jilin was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5] 3.2.2 Corn Supply - In December 2025, the corn import volume was 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.86% and a year - on - year increase of 133.10%. The total corn import volume from January to December was 265 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.60%. From February 5 to February 11, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in China consumed 130.41 million tons of corn, a decrease of 5.31 million tons from the previous week. As of February 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 33.02 days, an increase of 0.43 days or 1.32% from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 9.66%. The total corn inventory of 96 major deep - processing enterprises was 543.8 million tons, an increase of 6.07% from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 22.04% [6] 3.2.3 Corn Starch Supply - Corn starch processing enterprises consumed 43.52 million tons of corn, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the previous week. Starch sugar enterprises consumed 25.90 million tons of corn, a decrease of 1.21 million tons from the previous week. The weekly national corn starch output was 30.47 million tons, a decrease of 1.15 million tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 55.68%, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous week. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises across the country was 102.5 million tons, an increase of 3.00 million tons or 3.02% from the previous week, a monthly decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90%. Before the holiday, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was - 112 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous week [7] 3.2.4 International and Domestic Market Analysis - In the international market, the net export sales of U.S. corn in the 2025/2026 season were 147 million tons, a decrease of 29% from the previous week and a decrease of 33% from the average of the previous four weeks. The corn export shipment was 162.7 million tons, an increase of 8% from the previous week and an increase of 13% from the average of the previous four weeks. As of the second week of February 2026, Brazil had shipped 99.27 million tons of corn, compared with 141.95 million tons in February last year. The daily shipping volume was 9.93 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.87%. In the domestic market, the corn purchase and sales were basically stagnant during the Spring Festival. After the holiday, as the temperature rises, farmers and traders are expected to start selling. However, snow after the holiday may affect transportation, and "late spring cold" may affect wheat production. The deep - processing and feed enterprises have replenishment needs after the holiday, which may support corn prices. The overall corn market supply is not loose, but the arrival of imported and substitute grains after the holiday will provide some supplements, and the corn price will continue to fluctuate [7][8]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the market dynamics and strategic outlook for the wheat industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Price Trends - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the market price of rice (Japonica rice) in late January 2026 is projected to be 3961.7 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.34% and a month-on-month increase of 0.18% [1] - Over the past five years, the highest price for Japonica rice was recorded in late January 2021 at 4099.9 yuan per ton [1]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月22日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 【交易策略】 假期海 ...

20260224申万期货品种策略日报-软商品 申银万国期货研究所 黄莹(执业编号：F3053602；投资咨询编号：Z0015364） huangying@sywgqh.com.cn 行 业 信 息 评 论 及 策 略 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 白糖2609 | 白糖2605 | 白糖2603 | 11号糖2603 | 11号糖2607 | 11号糖2605 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 5222 | 5211 | 5213 | 14.47 | 13.98 | 14.29 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 5259 | 5254 | 5251 | 14.3 | 13.83 | 14.13 | | | 涨跌 | -37 | -43 | -38 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.16 | | 期 | 涨跌幅% | -0.70 | -0.82 | -0.72 | 1.19 | 1.08 | 1.13 | | 货 | 持仓量 ...

Core Insights - Guangdong is focusing on expanding domestic demand to promote consumption and investment, facilitating a positive interaction between supply and demand [2] - The "Guangdong Goods Going Nationwide" initiative aims to leverage Guangdong's industrial advantages to enhance market competitiveness and contribute to the national economic landscape [2] - In 2025, Guangdong hosted over 1,800 consumption promotion events, generating sales exceeding 60 billion yuan [14] Group 1: Consumption Promotion - The "Guangdong Goods Going Nationwide" campaign has successfully attracted consumer interest, particularly in technology products, as seen in the spring action event at Huaqiangbei [3][4] - The initiative has led to significant sales growth in various categories, with retail sales of sports, entertainment, and communication products increasing by 28.6%, 15.9%, and 25.6% respectively in 2025 [5] - The rise in consumer spending is driven by an increase in disposable income, with Guangdong residents' per capita disposable income reaching 53,669 yuan in 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year [6] Group 2: Investment Expansion - Guangdong has planned 1,850 key projects for 2026, with a total investment of approximately 860 billion yuan, aiming for an annual investment of 105 billion yuan [8] - The province's infrastructure projects are set to receive 63.91 billion yuan, accounting for 61% of the total planned investment [8] - Major projects, including the expansion of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport and the completion of high-speed rail lines, are expected to significantly enhance economic growth and connectivity [7] Group 3: Market Integration and Quality Assurance - The "Bay Area Certification" initiative aims to enhance product quality and facilitate smoother market circulation across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with 308 certifications issued by the end of 2025 [12] - Guangdong is committed to building a unified national market, promoting fair competition and a favorable business environment for all market entities [13] - The province's strategic position as a hub for domestic and international consumption is emphasized, with initiatives to attract both national and global consumers [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and in the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be focused on due to the supply gap [1] - Starch prices are supported in the short - term by downstream holiday stocking and inventory reduction, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key in the long - term [2] - For sugar, the international market may see increased production in the 25/26 season, and the domestic market's short - term pricing refers to domestic sugar, while long - term prices may decline if the global sugar surplus intensifies [3] - Cotton demand is expected to improve, and it is suitable for long - term investment as new - season planting area in Xinjiang will decrease [5] - Egg prices stop rising and turn down after pre - holiday stocking. The 05 contract is affected by farmers' chicken culling, and the supply pressure in the second quarter can be mitigated if the price difference between culled chickens and white chickens shrinks [13] - Apple's inventory is decreasing during the holiday, with different price trends for different quality fruits. The market in the sales area has not improved significantly [16] - Pig prices are weak in the short - term. During the pre - holiday period of increased supply and demand, inventory reduction pressure dominates, with medium - term pressure and long - term inflection point support [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13, corn prices in some regions remained stable, and the import profit increased by 2. Starch's processing profit decreased by 66 [1] - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are supported by downstream pre - holiday restocking, and long - term attention should be paid to policies. Starch prices are supported in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [1][2] Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13, the spot price in Kunming decreased by 5, the base difference increased by 43, and the number of warrants increased by 459 [3] - **Analysis**: The international market may have increased production, and the domestic market's price is affected by global supply and demand [3] Cotton - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 50, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 68 [18] - **Analysis**: Cotton demand is expected to improve due to domestic consumption policies and export performance, and new - season planting area will decrease [5] Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13, the base difference decreased by 25, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.14 [12] - **Analysis**: Egg prices stop rising after pre - holiday stocking, and the 05 contract is affected by chicken culling [13] Apples - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13, the national inventory decreased by 92, Shandong inventory decreased by 96, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 152 [15][16] - **Analysis**: Apple inventory is decreasing during the holiday, with different price trends for different quality fruits [16] Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2026/02/09 to 2026/02/13, the base difference increased by 140 [16] - **Analysis**: Pig prices are weak in the short - term, and inventory reduction pressure dominates during the pre - holiday period [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the northern hemisphere gradually finishes the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is mostly realized, the international sugar price may rebound. In China, the supply of imported sugar is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [2]. - For cotton, the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the illegal tariff policy and the high single - week export of U.S. cotton from February 5th to 12th led to a sharp rebound in U.S. cotton prices. However, Trump's decision to raise the global import tariff from 10% to 15% on February 21st is negative for cotton prices. In the medium - to - long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the downstream industry chain after the Spring Festival [7]. - For soybeans, the expectation of China's increased purchase of U.S. soybeans has pushed up the CBOT soybean price. For China, on one hand, the long - term supply pressure increases, and on the other hand, the rising U.S. soybean price raises the import cost. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, driven by the bio - diesel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The medium - term outlook for oil and fat prices is positive. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [14]. - For eggs, after the Spring Festival, the opening price is neutral, the overall inventory accumulation is limited, and the market sales are average. The supply side needs to pay attention to the scale of molting and cold - storage egg purchases. It is expected that the short - term spot price decline is limited. The near - month futures contract may form a bottom after a low - opening. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading and wait for the accumulation of contradictions. For the far - end contract, under the background that the production capacity decline is less than expected, attention should be paid to the valuation pressure [17]. - For pigs, before the Spring Festival, farmers actively sold pigs, resulting in a significant decrease in the average weight and a low inventory in散户 pens. After the Spring Festival, the reluctance to sell due to losses still exists, and the high price difference between fat and standard pigs may lead to secondary fattening and inventory - building behaviors. The decline of the spot price is limited, which may support the near - month futures contract to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for the further accumulation and fermentation of contradictions [20]. Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Information**: As of the week of February 18th, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 43, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded decreased from 1.83 million tons to 1.577 million tons. StoneX predicts a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In January 2026, China produced 3.21 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 6.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 2.7 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1% [2]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From February 5th to 12th, the U.S. exported 106,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 1.9899 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 142,900 tons. The spinning mill's operating rate as of February 6th was 60.5%, a 3.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.53 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous week. The predicted global cotton production in 2025/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December prediction and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - **Market Information**: From February 5th to 12th, the U.S. exported 800,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 35.37 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.63 million tons. As of February 14th, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 24.7%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 2.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 30th to February 6th, the domestic sample soybean arrival volume was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week [8]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia plans to increase its palm oil exports to the U.S. to 3 million tons in the next two years. The tariff between the U.S. and Indonesia has been reduced from 32% to 19%. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons from the previous month but an increase of 340,000 tons from the same period last year. The export volume was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month and 320,000 tons from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - **Market Information**: After the Spring Festival, the opening price of eggs was neutral. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was 2.8 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.3 yuan per catty from before the festival. The inventory accumulation was not large, the market sales were average, and there was a reluctance to sell at low prices. It is expected that the short - term egg price will be stable, with a slight upward trend in some areas [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: After the Spring Festival, the mainstream pig price decreased, which was in line with expectations. In the north, the demand from slaughterhouses was limited, the supply was sufficient, and the price decline was large. In the south, the local pig slaughter volume had not fully recovered, and the price decline was smaller than that in the north. After continuous price cuts in some areas, farmers were reluctant to sell, and with the increase in the number of slaughterhouses resuming work, the demand improved. In the short term, the decline of the pig price in the north may narrow, while the supply in the south continues to increase, and the pig price may continue to fall [19].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/24 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 2月12日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增86.42万吨一如预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增79.82万吨，较之前一周增加183%， 较前四周均值减少20%，市场此前预估为净增37.5万吨至净增120.0万吨。 当周，美国大豆出口装船为129.06万吨，较之前一周增加14%，较此前四周均值增加1%。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售81.12万吨。下一市场年度大豆新销售6.60万吨。 2月12日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增48.09万吨高于预期 USDA出口销售报告显示，2月12日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增48.09万吨，较之前一周增加35%， 较前四周均值增加20%，市场此前预估为净增22.0万吨至净增45.0万吨。 当周，美国豆粕出口装船为40.76万吨，较之前一周增加25%，较此前四周均值增加13%。 当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕新销售51.10万吨。下一市场年度豆粕新销售0万吨。 AgRural：巴西大豆收割进度为2020/21年度以来最慢 农业咨询机构Ag ...